2022 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

The offense’s resurgence from 13th in the National League in runs scored in 2020 to fourth in ’21 was one of the big reasons the Reds stubbornly hung on to the edge of the Wild Card race for most of the second half of the season. Jonathan India not only survived in the majors but thrived, winning the Rookie of the Year award with a borderline star season and providing the team a significant boost. Tyler Stephenson wasn’t too far from a Rookie of the Year vote of his own, at least on my ballot. Joey Votto pushed back Father Time yet again, at least for the one season, and Nick Castellanos hit like the Reds expected him to when they signed him. Kyle Farmer was hardly a great shortstop, but the position would have been an even worse problem if Cincy’s wild plan to make the former backup catcher their shortstop had not worked out acceptably.

ZiPS projects the offense to be above average in 2022 though not quite where it was this year. Castellanos is gone, which significantly downgrades one outfield spot unless the Reds make a signing when the offseason resumes. But given the team’s apparent determination to cut salary, I wouldn’t bank on it. Votto is one of the most thoughtful hitters in baseball, but he’ll also be 39, and time is the universe’s ultimate badass, while players approaching 40 are always betting against the house.

The various regressions are partially nullified by two things. First, India is barely projected to regress at all in 2022, with ZiPS not projecting any kind of Joe Charboneau sophomore slump for the reigning ROY (not that such an effect is a real thing, of course). The other is the computer projecting a better season for Eugenio Suárez. Now, ZiPS isn’t pegging him for a return to his prime, but it also doesn’t think that he’s going to continue aging like he pulled a Julian Glover and drank from the wrong holy grail, and the numbers below represent at least some recovery.

Jose Barrero looks much closer to the majors after a successful stint in the high minors, so the Reds do have some flexibility at short between him and Farmer that didn’t really exist last year. But depth remains a concern. The team does have a supply of spare, middling outfielders, but with India graduated, ZiPS doesn’t see much roster-relevant depth in the high minors once you get past Barrero.

Pitchers

Waiving Wade Miley immediately after he finished a three-win season just to try to avoid having to pay him the $1 million buyout triggered by not exercising a reasonable $10 million option ranks quite highly among cynical transactions. It rubs salt in the wound that one of the team’s likely competitors in the middle of the NL Central happily scooped him up for their rotation. Fans ought to be concerned about this behavior; the Reds have seemed determined to cut costs at the very time that they should be the most aggressive about spending. The contending years are supposed to carry the investment that justifies tight budgets in the down seasons.

But even if it makes us worry about the future of the Reds, this particular transaction may not have huge consequences. Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still project as a very strong starting trio, and ZiPS gives optimistic projections to Reiver Sanmartin, Hunter Greene, and Nick Lodolo (Tejay Antone will miss 2022 with Tommy John surgery, so his real projection is 0-0, 0.00). Unfortunately, the Reds don’t seem to be quitting while they’re ahead, and Gray and Castillo have been the frequent subjects of trade rumors.

Another bit of good news is the bullpen. It was a decidedly below-average unit last season, but ZiPS thinks they largely have the right mix of pitchers on their roster. Lucas Sims and Art Warren are both projected to be in the upper tiers of relief excellence, with Amir Garrett, Luis Cessa, Jeff Hoffman, and others somewhere around average. ZiPS even likes Dauri Moreta, a mid-90s fastball-slider type with some good awareness of where the strike zone is located. Fans may think the bullpen is a problem — fans of most teams think their team’s bullpen is a problem — but I don’t think this is Cincinnati’s chief weakness. But acquiring a couple cheap veteran relievers is a lot less expensive than finding a Castellanos replacement, so it might be more tempting to ownership.

I’d put the Reds at around .500, maybe a game or two ahead of the break-even point. I’m just not sure that will be the projection in three months.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

[A previous version of this table had an incorrect projection for Luis Castillo. I had accidentally flipped the MLBAM UIDs for Luis Castillo of the Reds and Luis Castillo of the Diamondbacks (at least their minors). So Castillo had a rather odd projection which consisted of the right Luis Castillo up until 2021. -DS]

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.