2022 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

The offense’s resurgence from 13th in the National League in runs scored in 2020 to fourth in ’21 was one of the big reasons the Reds stubbornly hung on to the edge of the Wild Card race for most of the second half of the season. Jonathan India not only survived in the majors but thrived, winning the Rookie of the Year award with a borderline star season and providing the team a significant boost. Tyler Stephenson wasn’t too far from a Rookie of the Year vote of his own, at least on my ballot. Joey Votto pushed back Father Time yet again, at least for the one season, and Nick Castellanos hit like the Reds expected him to when they signed him. Kyle Farmer was hardly a great shortstop, but the position would have been an even worse problem if Cincy’s wild plan to make the former backup catcher their shortstop had not worked out acceptably.

ZiPS projects the offense to be above average in 2022 though not quite where it was this year. Castellanos is gone, which significantly downgrades one outfield spot unless the Reds make a signing when the offseason resumes. But given the team’s apparent determination to cut salary, I wouldn’t bank on it. Votto is one of the most thoughtful hitters in baseball, but he’ll also be 39, and time is the universe’s ultimate badass, while players approaching 40 are always betting against the house.

The various regressions are partially nullified by two things. First, India is barely projected to regress at all in 2022, with ZiPS not projecting any kind of Joe Charboneau sophomore slump for the reigning ROY (not that such an effect is a real thing, of course). The other is the computer projecting a better season for Eugenio Suárez. Now, ZiPS isn’t pegging him for a return to his prime, but it also doesn’t think that he’s going to continue aging like he pulled a Julian Glover and drank from the wrong holy grail, and the numbers below represent at least some recovery.

Jose Barrero looks much closer to the majors after a successful stint in the high minors, so the Reds do have some flexibility at short between him and Farmer that didn’t really exist last year. But depth remains a concern. The team does have a supply of spare, middling outfielders, but with India graduated, ZiPS doesn’t see much roster-relevant depth in the high minors once you get past Barrero.

Pitchers

Waiving Wade Miley immediately after he finished a three-win season just to try to avoid having to pay him the $1 million buyout triggered by not exercising a reasonable $10 million option ranks quite highly among cynical transactions. It rubs salt in the wound that one of the team’s likely competitors in the middle of the NL Central happily scooped him up for their rotation. Fans ought to be concerned about this behavior; the Reds have seemed determined to cut costs at the very time that they should be the most aggressive about spending. The contending years are supposed to carry the investment that justifies tight budgets in the down seasons.

But even if it makes us worry about the future of the Reds, this particular transaction may not have huge consequences. Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, and Tyler Mahle still project as a very strong starting trio, and ZiPS gives optimistic projections to Reiver Sanmartin, Hunter Greene, and Nick Lodolo (Tejay Antone will miss 2022 with Tommy John surgery, so his real projection is 0-0, 0.00). Unfortunately, the Reds don’t seem to be quitting while they’re ahead, and Gray and Castillo have been the frequent subjects of trade rumors.

Another bit of good news is the bullpen. It was a decidedly below-average unit last season, but ZiPS thinks they largely have the right mix of pitchers on their roster. Lucas Sims and Art Warren are both projected to be in the upper tiers of relief excellence, with Amir Garrett, Luis Cessa, Jeff Hoffman, and others somewhere around average. ZiPS even likes Dauri Moreta, a mid-90s fastball-slider type with some good awareness of where the strike zone is located. Fans may think the bullpen is a problem — fans of most teams think their team’s bullpen is a problem — but I don’t think this is Cincinnati’s chief weakness. But acquiring a couple cheap veteran relievers is a lot less expensive than finding a Castellanos replacement, so it might be more tempting to ownership.

I’d put the Reds at around .500, maybe a game or two ahead of the break-even point. I’m just not sure that will be the projection in three months.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Jonathan India R 25 2B 634 534 99 140 34 2 21 73 72 144 12 3
Jesse Winker L 28 LF 461 399 66 115 25 1 20 64 54 78 1 1
Nick Castellanos R 30 RF 603 551 92 158 39 2 31 96 40 128 3 2
Eugenio Suárez R 30 3B 578 504 72 119 21 1 34 99 61 166 1 1
Tyler Stephenson R 25 C 421 368 55 98 20 0 10 45 42 85 0 0
Joey Votto L 38 1B 487 416 61 104 21 1 24 75 65 114 1 0
Jose Barrero R 24 SS 460 413 57 103 21 2 13 57 30 114 13 3
Tyler Naquin L 31 CF 410 377 46 99 22 2 14 58 26 95 4 3
Kyle Farmer R 31 SS 469 430 48 110 21 2 12 52 21 90 3 2
Alejo Lopez B 26 2B 478 434 61 119 19 1 5 36 33 63 6 4
Lorenzo Cedrola R 24 CF 490 458 63 129 15 5 9 44 16 62 10 7
Mike Moustakas L 33 3B 415 372 46 92 22 1 18 62 35 79 2 0
Max Schrock L 27 2B 314 289 37 75 14 2 8 31 21 57 3 1
TJ Friedl L 26 CF 455 400 51 99 15 4 11 37 39 82 12 5
Aristides Aquino R 28 LF 401 356 51 80 14 1 23 67 38 126 6 2
Delino DeShields R 29 LF 443 382 48 91 17 3 7 31 51 104 21 4
Nick Senzel R 27 CF 324 294 42 75 16 3 8 31 26 67 8 6
Francisco Urbaez R 24 2B 423 389 57 105 20 1 5 30 29 66 2 1
Logan Morrison L 34 1B 210 189 28 47 11 0 10 30 17 42 0 0
Shogo Akiyama L 34 CF 483 439 52 114 20 3 9 42 37 87 6 7
Aramis Garcia R 29 C 320 294 36 66 13 1 12 38 18 98 0 1
Drew Mount L 26 RF 273 256 26 62 9 2 10 30 13 78 5 4
Ivan Johnson B 23 SS 360 333 39 77 15 1 12 38 24 107 7 4
Ender Inciarte L 31 CF 292 262 37 63 11 2 5 25 23 55 6 3
Asdrúbal Cabrera B 36 3B 385 343 43 82 19 1 13 58 36 87 1 0
Brian Rey R 24 2B 381 343 50 88 14 0 9 38 19 63 3 4
Trey Amburgey R 27 RF 416 384 51 94 23 2 14 50 23 115 4 1
Allen Cordoba R 26 3B 377 343 49 85 18 2 6 36 21 73 9 7
Jacob Hurtubise L 24 RF 433 382 72 95 12 2 0 21 38 84 22 5
Scott Heineman R 29 RF 251 229 29 56 11 1 8 25 17 60 6 3
Mark Kolozsvary R 26 C 260 229 25 41 9 1 7 23 21 91 0 1
Robbie Tenerowicz R 27 3B 343 309 38 70 13 1 10 36 20 90 4 4
Quincy McAfee R 24 2B 335 293 43 63 14 1 6 29 29 67 5 3
Matt Lloyd L 26 LF 157 142 14 28 6 0 7 19 13 55 0 1
Chris Okey R 27 C 208 188 24 38 7 1 7 23 16 66 0 0
Andrew Knapp B 30 C 168 142 15 31 7 1 3 17 22 50 0 0
Chuckie Robinson R 27 C 313 287 31 61 10 1 9 28 21 84 3 2
Rocky Gale R 34 C 160 153 12 33 4 1 1 9 4 35 0 0
Leonardo Rivas B 24 2B 313 280 39 60 9 2 3 19 31 82 6 3
Nicky Delmonico L 29 1B 154 138 16 31 8 1 4 16 13 41 0 1
Alfredo Rodriguez R 28 2B 465 431 55 107 16 2 3 29 21 88 5 4
Juan Martinez R 23 3B 396 364 44 80 17 2 10 39 23 92 0 1
TJ Hopkins R 25 LF 285 261 32 59 10 3 5 24 18 78 4 1
Cristian Santana R 25 3B 419 402 47 101 18 1 11 45 10 105 0 1
Alex Blandino R 29 1B 264 220 29 42 9 1 3 16 32 76 1 1
Eric Yang R 24 C 273 237 31 44 9 0 4 17 23 71 1 1
Errol Robinson R 27 SS 316 284 32 58 9 0 4 18 29 93 7 4
Allan Cerda R 22 CF 398 361 38 76 17 2 21 59 25 123 1 4
Michael Siani L 22 CF 458 416 43 84 11 3 8 27 35 117 23 9
Jay Schuyler R 25 C 323 293 30 56 8 1 4 22 22 91 2 3
Garrett Wolforth B 24 C 317 299 30 57 10 2 9 33 15 104 2 1
Ronnie Dawson L 27 CF 438 391 56 84 18 1 11 41 37 130 12 8
Miguel Hernandez R 23 SS 441 416 54 98 17 1 3 29 19 89 4 2
Braxton Lee L 28 LF 347 315 37 69 13 2 1 20 26 91 4 3
Brantley Bell R 27 1B 329 303 33 63 12 1 3 22 21 77 8 3
Quin Cotton R 24 LF 367 343 37 71 12 1 8 33 19 114 13 6

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Jonathan India .262 .371 .451 112 .189 .322 6.3 3 3.8 Eddie Yost
Jesse Winker .288 .384 .506 128 .218 .316 7.3 -4 2.3 Steve Braun
Nick Castellanos .287 .340 .534 121 .247 .324 6.8 -5 2.3 Juan Gonzalez
Eugenio Suárez .236 .325 .484 106 .248 .280 5.5 -3 2.1 Steve Buechele
Tyler Stephenson .266 .347 .402 94 .136 .322 5.1 3 1.9 Kurt Suzuki
Joey Votto .250 .353 .478 113 .228 .288 6.1 -1 1.6 Chris Chambliss
Jose Barrero .249 .313 .404 84 .155 .315 4.7 3 1.4 Jose Castro
Tyler Naquin .263 .315 .443 93 .180 .317 5.0 0 1.1 George Vukovich
Kyle Farmer .256 .308 .398 81 .142 .299 4.4 2 1.0 Robert Eenhoorn
Alejo Lopez .274 .332 .357 79 .083 .311 4.4 4 0.9 Mike Bordick
Lorenzo Cedrola .282 .317 .395 83 .114 .310 4.6 2 0.8 Wendell Magee
Mike Moustakas .247 .318 .457 98 .210 .269 5.3 -6 0.8 Wayne Gross
Max Schrock .260 .313 .405 84 .145 .299 4.7 2 0.7 Matt Macri
TJ Friedl .248 .329 .388 85 .140 .287 4.6 -2 0.7 Mike Rodriguez
Aristides Aquino .225 .304 .463 95 .239 .275 5.0 0 0.7 Harvey Pulliam
Delino DeShields .238 .332 .353 78 .115 .310 4.5 4 0.7 Allen Battle
Nick Senzel .255 .316 .412 87 .156 .306 4.6 1 0.6 Ira Smith
Francisco Urbaez .270 .329 .365 80 .095 .314 4.4 0 0.6 Aaron Hill
Logan Morrison .249 .319 .466 100 .217 .270 5.3 0 0.4 Sid Bream
Shogo Akiyama .260 .324 .380 82 .121 .306 4.3 -1 0.4 Fred Schulte
Aramis Garcia .224 .274 .398 71 .173 .293 3.7 2 0.4 Paul Chiaffredo
Drew Mount .242 .286 .410 77 .168 .310 4.1 6 0.3 Victor Mata
Ivan Johnson .231 .289 .390 74 .159 .304 3.9 0 0.3 Brant Ust
Ender Inciarte .240 .307 .355 71 .115 .287 3.9 3 0.3 Ryan Fleming
Asdrúbal Cabrera .239 .312 .414 86 .175 .284 4.6 -4 0.3 Tim Wallach
Brian Rey .257 .312 .376 77 .120 .292 4.1 0 0.3 Omar Malave
Trey Amburgey .245 .293 .424 83 .180 .314 4.5 2 0.3 Charlie James
Allen Cordoba .248 .307 .364 73 .117 .299 3.9 2 0.2 Steve Benson
Jacob Hurtubise .249 .333 .291 64 .042 .319 3.8 7 0.2 Vernon Spearman
Scott Heineman .245 .307 .406 83 .162 .298 4.5 1 0.1 Nick Alvarez
Mark Kolozsvary .179 .273 .319 53 .140 .260 2.8 4 0.1 Brian Moon
Robbie Tenerowicz .227 .288 .372 70 .146 .287 3.6 2 0.0 Pedro Lopez
Quincy McAfee .215 .300 .331 64 .116 .259 3.4 0 -0.2 Vicente Garcia
Matt Lloyd .197 .274 .387 69 .190 .263 3.4 1 -0.2 Roger Haggerty
Chris Okey .202 .271 .362 62 .160 .270 3.3 -1 -0.2 Tom Nieto
Andrew Knapp .218 .329 .345 76 .127 .315 3.9 -6 -0.3 Jack Fimple
Chuckie Robinson .213 .275 .348 60 .136 .268 3.2 -2 -0.3 Brandon Marsters
Rocky Gale .216 .239 .275 33 .059 .274 2.3 3 -0.4 Frank Charles
Leonardo Rivas .214 .295 .293 54 .079 .292 3.0 1 -0.4 Micah Schilling
Nicky Delmonico .225 .299 .384 75 .159 .290 3.8 -3 -0.5 Alberto Concepcion
Alfredo Rodriguez .248 .289 .316 57 .067 .306 3.2 4 -0.5 Fernando Cortez
Juan Martinez .220 .274 .360 63 .140 .267 3.4 0 -0.5 Cesar Saba
TJ Hopkins .226 .279 .345 61 .119 .303 3.4 2 -0.5 Darnell McDonald
Cristian Santana .251 .271 .383 67 .132 .315 3.7 -2 -0.6 Christopher Johnson
Alex Blandino .191 .319 .282 58 .091 .277 3.0 -1 -0.7 Alberto Concepcion
Eric Yang .186 .283 .274 46 .089 .247 2.5 -3 -0.7 Brad Erdman
Errol Robinson .204 .282 .278 46 .074 .289 2.6 -1 -0.8 Jason Camilli
Allan Cerda .211 .275 .443 82 .233 .253 4.0 -12 -0.8 Curt Flood
Michael Siani .202 .270 .300 48 .099 .261 2.9 3 -0.9 Tarrik Brock
Jay Schuyler .191 .255 .266 36 .075 .263 2.1 0 -1.2 Jose Molina
Garrett Wolforth .191 .231 .328 43 .137 .258 2.5 -3 -1.2 Walt McKeel
Ronnie Dawson .215 .291 .350 65 .136 .292 3.4 -9 -1.2 Francisco Plasencia
Miguel Hernandez .236 .269 .303 48 .067 .293 2.9 -3 -1.3 Kent Anderson
Braxton Lee .219 .282 .283 47 .063 .305 2.7 -2 -1.6 Selwyn Langaigne
Brantley Bell .208 .265 .284 43 .076 .269 2.6 -1 -1.8 Brian Keck
Quin Cotton .207 .251 .318 46 .111 .285 2.7 -2 -1.8 Alex Ahumada

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Tyler Mahle R 27 11 8 4.08 32 32 167.7 155 76 23 61 188 3.96
Sonny Gray R 32 10 7 3.78 27 27 140.3 117 59 17 56 153 3.90
Luis Castillo R 29 15 8 3.54 31 31 180.3 158 71 18 66 195 3.55
Reiver Sanmartin L 26 8 7 4.46 26 20 109.0 113 54 17 33 96 4.52
Hunter Greene R 22 11 9 4.47 22 22 106.7 102 53 17 40 114 4.38
Tejay Antone R 28 6 4 4.27 27 12 84.3 75 40 11 36 92 4.15
Nick Lodolo L 24 3 2 3.99 14 14 56.3 53 25 8 17 59 3.94
Lucas Sims R 28 4 2 3.56 60 0 55.7 40 22 8 28 86 3.68
Tony Santillan R 25 5 4 4.71 35 13 84.0 76 44 13 44 98 4.68
Graham Ashcraft R 24 7 7 5.13 22 22 101.7 107 58 17 41 87 5.03
Eduardo Salazar R 24 5 5 5.25 22 19 94.3 103 55 15 38 70 5.13
Connor Overton R 28 2 2 4.77 28 8 60.3 63 32 10 20 52 4.75
Art Warren R 29 4 2 3.37 38 0 34.7 26 13 4 15 48 3.38
Bo Takahashi R 25 5 6 5.46 19 19 92.3 99 56 20 34 83 5.47
Vladimir Gutierrez R 26 8 9 5.63 25 25 126.3 136 79 27 48 111 5.48
Luis Cessa R 30 3 3 4.41 46 1 65.3 63 32 9 23 61 4.21
Amir Garrett L 30 2 2 4.25 61 0 48.7 40 23 8 28 67 4.41
Alexis Diaz R 25 3 3 4.47 35 1 48.3 43 24 6 28 54 4.48
Trey Wingenter R 28 2 2 4.36 45 1 43.3 33 21 7 26 62 4.43
Jeff Hoffman R 29 4 3 4.50 66 1 62.0 55 31 9 34 77 4.42
Dauri Moreta R 26 3 2 4.35 44 0 51.7 50 25 7 18 50 4.23
Tommy Milone L 35 5 5 5.51 21 12 83.3 93 51 20 21 78 5.29
Riley O’Brien R 27 6 8 5.74 23 21 102.0 106 65 21 54 98 5.70
Jacques Pucheu L 25 3 4 5.50 25 11 68.7 72 42 11 36 56 5.38
Michael Byrne R 25 5 5 5.03 37 4 53.7 58 30 7 23 36 4.99
Zach Lee R 30 4 5 5.77 23 17 92.0 108 59 19 33 67 5.65
Phillip Diehl L 27 2 2 4.72 57 0 55.3 54 29 12 19 64 4.88
Justin Wilson L 34 2 2 4.55 38 0 31.7 29 16 4 17 34 4.38
Matt Pidich R 27 5 5 5.09 35 3 53.0 55 30 9 22 46 5.07
Mychal Givens R 32 4 3 4.88 54 1 51.7 43 28 10 28 68 4.81
Michael Mariot R 33 4 5 5.86 17 15 78.3 89 51 17 28 59 5.72
Brandon Bailey R 27 4 6 5.82 24 16 89.7 92 58 18 54 88 5.80
Ryan Hendrix R 27 4 3 4.89 48 0 46.0 43 25 7 27 53 4.75
Brad Brach R 36 2 2 4.91 45 0 40.3 38 22 6 24 45 4.74
Diomar Lopez R 25 1 1 5.11 29 1 44.0 46 25 7 18 37 5.00
Tim Adleman R 34 3 3 5.71 24 8 58.3 64 37 14 19 53 5.61
R.J. Alaniz R 31 2 2 5.02 37 0 43.0 42 24 7 21 44 4.85
Josh Osich L 33 2 2 5.18 38 1 41.7 44 24 8 15 38 5.00
Ricky Salinas R 26 5 7 6.09 19 18 78.3 88 53 17 39 67 5.94
Eddy Demurias R 24 3 3 5.20 41 0 53.7 56 31 7 29 42 5.10
Daniel Duarte R 25 2 2 5.47 19 0 24.7 26 15 4 12 20 5.25
Braden Shipley R 30 3 4 5.95 25 8 59.0 65 39 14 28 55 5.98
Miguel Figueroa R 24 0 1 5.36 29 0 42.0 41 25 7 26 43 5.30
Mac Sceroler R 27 3 4 6.30 20 13 70.0 80 49 17 30 60 6.08
Brandon Finnegan L 29 3 3 5.80 39 1 49.7 52 32 9 32 45 5.84
Connor Curlis L 25 5 7 6.52 20 19 87.0 99 63 19 50 65 6.42
Kyle Dowdy R 29 4 5 6.20 35 4 65.3 71 45 13 40 58 6.01
Nick Howard R 29 1 2 6.46 38 0 39.0 41 28 7 30 35 6.18

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Tyler Mahle 10.1 3.3 1.2 8.5% 26.3% .303 115 87 3.4 Ed Halicki
Sonny Gray 9.8 3.6 1.1 9.5% 25.9% .279 124 80 3.3 Dave Stieb
Luis Castillo 9.7 3.3 0.9 8.7% 25.6% .295 133 75 4.7 Orel Hershiser
Reiver Sanmartin 7.9 2.7 1.4 7.0% 20.4% .301 105 95 1.7 Ray Fontenot
Hunter Greene 9.6 3.4 1.4 8.7% 24.8% .299 105 95 1.7 Roy Oswalt
Tejay Antone 9.8 3.8 1.2 9.9% 25.3% .291 110 91 1.5 Willard Schmidt
Nick Lodolo 9.4 2.7 1.3 7.2% 24.9% .298 118 85 1.2 Wilfredo Ledezma
Lucas Sims 13.9 4.5 1.3 11.9% 36.4% .291 132 76 1.0 Bryan Harvey
Tony Santillan 10.5 4.7 1.4 11.8% 26.2% .297 100 100 1.0 Ralph Branca
Graham Ashcraft 7.7 3.6 1.5 9.1% 19.2% .299 92 109 0.9 George Stablein
Eduardo Salazar 6.7 3.6 1.4 9.0% 16.6% .299 90 112 0.7 Michael Macdonald
Connor Overton 7.8 3.0 1.5 7.6% 19.8% .298 99 101 0.6 Eric Moody
Art Warren 12.5 3.9 1.0 10.3% 33.1% .289 139 72 0.6 Greg Harris
Bo Takahashi 8.1 3.3 1.9 8.3% 20.3% .297 86 116 0.5 Joe Bitker
Vladimir Gutierrez 7.9 3.4 1.9 8.6% 19.8% .296 84 120 0.5 Mark Clark
Luis Cessa 8.4 3.2 1.2 8.3% 21.9% .293 107 94 0.5 Mike Buddie
Amir Garrett 12.4 5.2 1.5 13.1% 31.5% .296 111 90 0.4 Rod Scurry
Alexis Diaz 10.1 5.2 1.1 13.0% 25.0% .296 105 95 0.4 Saul Rivera
Trey Wingenter 12.9 5.4 1.5 13.7% 32.6% .283 108 93 0.4 J.B. Miadich
Jeff Hoffman 11.2 4.9 1.3 12.4% 28.0% .305 105 96 0.4 Colter Bean
Dauri Moreta 8.7 3.1 1.2 8.1% 22.5% .299 108 93 0.4 Erik Bennett
Tommy Milone 8.4 2.3 2.2 5.8% 21.6% .305 85 117 0.3 Darrell May
Riley O’Brien 8.6 4.8 1.9 11.6% 21.1% .297 82 122 0.3 Greg Aquino
Jacques Pucheu 7.3 4.7 1.4 11.5% 17.9% .296 85 117 0.2 Matt Jarvis
Michael Byrne 6.0 3.9 1.2 9.5% 14.9% .297 93 107 0.2 Jack Cassel
Zach Lee 6.6 3.2 1.9 8.0% 16.1% .306 81 123 0.2 Frank Campos
Phillip Diehl 10.4 3.1 2.0 7.9% 26.8% .298 100 100 0.2 Tom Gorman
Justin Wilson 9.7 4.8 1.1 12.1% 24.3% .298 103 97 0.2 Trever Miller
Matt Pidich 7.8 3.7 1.5 9.4% 19.6% .297 92 108 0.2 Ray Soff
Mychal Givens 11.8 4.9 1.7 12.4% 30.2% .282 96 104 0.1 John Hudek
Michael Mariot 6.8 3.2 2.0 8.0% 16.9% .298 80 125 0.1 Dave Telgheder
Brandon Bailey 8.8 5.4 1.8 13.0% 21.3% .297 81 124 0.1 Derrick Lewis
Ryan Hendrix 10.4 5.3 1.4 13.0% 25.6% .305 96 104 0.1 Kevin Barry
Brad Brach 10.0 5.4 1.3 13.3% 24.9% .305 96 104 0.0 Ryne Duren
Diomar Lopez 7.6 3.7 1.4 9.2% 18.9% .298 92 109 0.0 Rocky Childress
Tim Adleman 8.2 2.9 2.2 7.4% 20.6% .298 82 121 0.0 Travis Driskill
R.J. Alaniz 9.2 4.4 1.5 11.0% 23.0% .299 94 107 0.0 Gregg Olson
Josh Osich 8.2 3.2 1.7 8.2% 20.9% .300 91 110 0.0 Brian Shouse
Ricky Salinas 7.7 4.5 2.0 10.8% 18.6% .305 77 129 -0.1 Edwardo Sierra
Eddy Demurias 7.0 4.9 1.2 11.8% 17.1% .299 90 111 -0.1 Julio DePaula
Daniel Duarte 7.3 4.4 1.5 10.8% 18.0% .297 86 116 -0.1 Mike Gardner
Braden Shipley 8.4 4.3 2.1 10.4% 20.4% .302 79 126 -0.1 Chuck Smith
Miguel Figueroa 9.2 5.6 1.5 13.5% 22.4% .298 88 114 -0.2 Mike Madden
Mac Sceroler 7.7 3.9 2.2 9.4% 18.8% .303 75 134 -0.3 Mitch Wylie
Brandon Finnegan 8.2 5.8 1.6 13.8% 19.4% .301 81 123 -0.4 Todd Rizzo
Connor Curlis 6.7 5.2 2.0 12.3% 15.9% .297 72 139 -0.5 Cristian Gonzalez
Kyle Dowdy 8.0 5.5 1.8 13.1% 19.0% .304 76 132 -0.6 Steve Green
Nick Howard 8.1 6.9 1.6 16.0% 18.7% .301 73 137 -0.6 James Warden

[A previous version of this table had an incorrect projection for Luis Castillo. I had accidentally flipped the MLBAM UIDs for Luis Castillo of the Reds and Luis Castillo of the Diamondbacks (at least their minors). So Castillo had a rather odd projection which consisted of the right Luis Castillo up until 2021. -DS]

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Kevbot034
9 months ago

I really am surprised India is projected for another nearly 4 win season. I like him a lot, but based on his MiLB history, I sort of thought this might be his peak already. He turned 25 today, so it’s not even as though he’s a SUPER youngster who made it.

sadtrombonemember
9 months ago
Reply to  Kevbot034

I love India’s profile. He’s going to be a solid leadoff guy for a while. It’s not that common to find a guy who gets on base at that clip without so much power that you want to stick them #2. Nimmo is sort of the prototypical leadoff guy for that reason, and while I think it would be too optimistic to think India’s going to regularly post .400 OBPs I could very easily see him regularly in the .375 area.

tz
9 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

He has just enough power to keep pitchers honest, so he should be able to maintain a strong OBP without having to rely on elite contact skills like guys like Arraez and Madrigal.

(As I typed that, I got a big burst of appreciation for the greatness of Jose Ramirez, who is what India’s ceiling would be if he had better hit, power, speed, and defensive tools. )

kylerkelton
9 months ago
Reply to  Kevbot034

Yeah definitely chalk this one up on the “bullish” list for ZiPS. In the past 60 years there have been 15 2B post a FG WAR between 3-5 in their age 24 season. Two were last season! India and Albies. The average WAR of that group the next season was 2.5. Still a solid, above average player, but my point is that it’s hard to replicate a performance like that. India is a really good player though and looks to have a good, balanced profile.