2023 ZiPS Projections: Colorado Rockies

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Colorado Rockies.

Batters

There are a lot of problems with the Colorado Rockies as an organization, but I think the biggest one is different than what ails most other poorly run franchises. It’s not parsimony; while the Rockies aren’t exactly the Mets, with a projected 2023 payroll around $163 million, they’re not the Pirates or the Marlins either. Playing in Coors make things trickier, but the team’s already shown they can find viable starting pitching — the biggest challenge in an environment like Denver — and they play in a beautiful park and city, and get consistent fan support. It isn’t even necessarily an analytics problem. While the top levels of the org clearly aren’t on board with the ways modern front offices think about the game — they have a department with sky-high employee churn — this is more a symptom of the problem rather than the problem itself. The problem that plagues the Rockies is a lack of imagination.

What do I mean by imagination? With most bad teams, you can imagine the scenario in which they’re good. The Orioles looked like a pretty lousy club entering the 2022 season, but they also had the most high-upside minor league talent in baseball. The Reds have several young pitchers with impressive physical tools, while the Pirates have some interesting starters to go along with some good prospects and young big leaguers at key defensive positions. But if you look at the Rockies, especially the offense, there just isn’t ambition there. While it’s bad that this group projects as one of the worst lineups in the league, it’s even worse that they project as having the lowest variance of any team I’ve projected so far this offseason. It’s a bit like buying a lottery ticket; almost every time you play Powerball, you’re going to be a loser, but if you hit it big, you become fabulously wealthy. Nobody buys a Powerball ticket because the winning prize is a 1989 Mercury Sable.

And this lack of imagination is seen in all aspects of player development. Veterans are rarely traded, whether at the deadline or over the winter, even when their contracts are expiring; the Rockies seem to believe it’s safer to just have a name you know than step into the unfamiliar. Signings are seemingly made just because, not in service of any real coherent team plan. The Ian Desmond contract could have been defensible, but only if the team thought he could play shortstop. Instead, the master plan was to make him a first baseman, a condition under which there was zero reason to sign him at all. Similarly, the argument for inking Kris Bryant to a big contract assumes that you believe he’s your solution at third base now that you’ve lost Nolan Arenado. Instead, Bryant was ticketed for left field. Older minor leaguers having big seasons almost seems like it’s an annoyance to the Rockies, as if those players upending the apple cart by breaking into the lineup is a problem rather than a mercy.

I never thought Tom Murphy or Mike Tauchman or any number of other Triple-A guys were going to be stars, or even regulars. But why wouldn’t you want to find out what they can do when the other options are veterans going nowhere? Wynton Bernard was a terrific story, a player who had a huge season unexpectedly and still isn’t projected to be a plus. The Rockies did give him a call-up, but seemed to approach it as something nice to do for a minor league veteran rather than treating him as a player who could benefit them.

This lineup, much like other Rockies lineups of recent money, is just a bunch of guys thrown together for whatever reason. They could get a healthy Bryant and ZiPS is a real fan of Ezequiel Tovar’s future. But there’s so little upside in most of this lineup that there’s just no payoff if they hit their flush. It’s the baseball equivalent of an April Ludgate eye-roll. Good teams seize opportunities; the Rockies appear to think of those opportunities as headaches.

And while Tovar has continued his progress, Zac Veen’s struggles for Double-A Hartford really issued a firm body blow to his projections. There’s only so much damage you can do to a projection in about a month, but hitting .177/.262/.224 in 141 plate appearances was a brutal debut in the high minors. ZiPS is definitely a little worried about him in the short-term.

Pitchers

One of the paradoxes of recent Rockies teams is that they’ve actually proven decently effective at putting together a surprisingly competent rotation. Germán Márquez is the centerpiece. He had a tough 2022 season, but ZiPS still likes him enough to expect him to bounce back to something at least on the border between ace and number-two starter. The rest of the rotation broadly projects in the middle quintile of the league, and perhaps as importantly, they’re generally battle-proven in Coors. Except for more José Ureña and Ryan Feltner taking the mountain lion’s share of the innings Chad Kuhl covered in 2022, the rotation looks rather similar to last year’s. Assuming Antonio Senzatela is completely recovered from the knee problems that cut his 2022 season short, he, Feltner, Ureña, Kyle Freeland, and Austin Gomber fill out a boring but serviceable starter corps, with Gomber likely the swingman when everyone’s healthy. The team’s better pitching prospects are generally in the lower levels of the minors, so there won’t be a ton of pressure from below on the current staff.

The bullpen projects as generally inferior to the rotation, though a bullpen is arguably less important when you’re talking about a team trying to win 70 games rather than 95. Steamer is not at all psyched about Brent Suter, but ZiPS still holds out hope, and it also really likes Pierce Johnson and Dinelson Lamet in relief. Daniel Bard gets a pretty conservative projection here, but he’s also close enough to 40 that aging risk becomes a more meaningful factor for him than for most pitchers; there’s always that chance he drops off the cliff. I certainly hope that doesn’t happen soon, as his comeback has been one of the cooler stories in baseball the last few years.

Where ZiPS sees issues is the back of the ‘pen, and it’s not at all stoked about Riley Pint or Blair Calvo. Scott Oberg is mostly listed here for historical interest; his problems with blood clots have left his career in serious jeopardy, and unfortunately, there’s a good chance he doesn’t pitch again.

The Rockies have enough low-variance talent that their floor is probably higher than teams like the Reds, Pirates, or Nationals. But unlike some teams where you can squint and kind of see how they get to 85 wins, I’m just not able to do so here. I’d love to see a change in organizational direction from the top to the bottom — and it’s the top that’s the problem, not the day-to-day staffers. If the Rockies want to emulate the Rays’ success in a tough division, they’re going to have to actually understand why the Rays are good before they can make any real progress.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Ryan McMahon L 28 3B 572 506 71 126 25 2 22 77 59 149 5 2
Kris Bryant R 31 LF 478 418 73 121 31 1 18 55 49 98 4 1
Brendan Rodgers R 26 2B 515 471 66 133 27 3 15 63 36 95 0 1
Ezequiel Tovar R 21 SS 413 382 51 105 20 3 12 58 21 79 10 3
Carlos Perez R 32 C 430 392 43 96 23 1 17 63 29 84 0 1
Brian Serven R 28 C 300 272 33 64 12 1 10 38 20 67 0 1
José Iglesias R 33 SS 453 428 52 126 28 2 6 49 17 57 3 3
C.J. Cron R 33 1B 546 488 65 128 27 1 25 88 44 133 0 1
Wynton Bernard R 32 CF 431 402 62 111 20 6 10 55 25 81 17 4
Sean Bouchard R 27 LF 404 357 51 91 24 3 14 59 40 108 6 2
Alan Trejo R 27 SS 428 404 50 103 25 2 15 60 17 103 2 3
Coco Montes R 26 2B 493 449 55 110 29 3 13 67 36 136 6 2
Yonathan Daza R 29 CF 419 386 48 113 19 3 4 39 25 66 3 3
Randal Grichuk R 31 RF 517 483 61 128 25 3 20 73 27 116 2 1
Warming Bernabel R 21 3B 387 359 51 100 22 0 10 54 19 64 9 5
Elehuris Montero R 24 3B 486 442 54 112 22 2 18 72 33 126 1 1
Willie MacIver R 26 C 390 355 33 79 16 0 10 49 26 112 6 2
Tim Lopes R 29 2B 386 351 50 93 23 3 9 51 26 89 10 5
Brenton Doyle R 25 CF 491 461 61 116 18 3 16 65 23 163 13 3
Nolan Jones L 25 RF 445 390 60 98 22 2 13 63 50 131 4 1
Jonathan Morales R 28 C 306 280 26 71 11 0 5 31 21 56 0 1
Ronaiker Palma R 23 C 224 211 22 58 7 1 2 22 7 27 1 2
Hunter Stovall R 26 SS 412 381 39 98 19 3 6 44 25 89 7 4
Jimmy Herron R 26 LF 387 345 42 87 16 3 9 50 33 78 9 4
Kyle Holder L 29 2B 312 283 27 69 14 2 3 33 22 71 1 1
Jack Blomgren R 24 2B 290 253 34 61 11 3 2 39 22 71 10 4
Bret Boswell L 28 3B 348 317 34 70 15 2 10 41 27 116 3 2
Daniel Cope R 26 C 175 159 15 40 7 2 4 21 14 47 1 1
Connor Kaiser R 26 SS 209 188 29 42 9 0 5 23 17 63 3 1
Aaron Schunk R 25 3B 452 420 50 101 22 2 9 55 23 117 4 2
Braiden Ward L 24 CF 374 322 56 76 9 3 3 67 23 95 26 4
Kyle Datres R 27 DH 325 289 35 69 13 1 10 47 26 88 10 2
Charlie Blackmon L 36 RF 520 470 64 128 25 4 13 70 36 95 3 1
Tyler Hill R 27 DH 259 236 34 63 10 1 5 31 18 53 10 3
Hunter Goodman R 23 1B 550 510 73 130 30 2 23 93 27 165 3 1
Colin Simpson L 26 1B 335 309 37 75 14 3 10 42 22 93 2 1
D.J. Peterson R 31 1B 338 306 39 69 17 0 13 48 26 101 1 1
Yorvis Torrealba R 25 LF 200 182 26 46 10 1 1 20 13 35 6 4
Elias Díaz R 32 C 347 319 37 82 17 1 10 44 24 67 0 1
Niko Decolati R 25 RF 306 277 36 64 11 1 3 31 22 81 9 2
Eddy Diaz R 23 2B 460 420 53 105 16 4 3 53 21 102 20 11
LJ Hatch R 29 SS 177 161 19 35 5 1 3 20 11 61 1 1
Julio Carreras R 23 SS 500 459 55 113 29 4 7 59 23 123 9 4
Taylor Snyder R 28 RF 379 354 43 78 16 2 14 48 20 136 5 1
Michael Toglia B 24 1B 550 496 60 112 24 3 20 70 49 176 4 2
Zac Veen L 21 RF 545 490 65 119 25 3 10 63 45 152 25 8
Cole Tucker B 26 SS 382 350 43 80 15 4 6 36 30 99 6 3
Scott Schebler L 32 LF 292 268 27 55 10 2 6 34 16 93 2 1
Drew Romo B 21 C 413 383 42 96 16 4 4 42 22 86 9 3
Grant Lavigne L 23 1B 497 445 50 106 19 4 7 56 44 141 2 2
Bladimir Restituyo R 21 CF 420 397 42 96 13 4 5 41 9 101 13 7
Jameson Hannah L 25 CF 350 322 37 82 18 3 2 37 22 87 6 2

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Ryan McMahon 572 .249 .330 .437 97 .188 .310 8 2.2 .332
Kris Bryant 478 .289 .374 .498 124 .208 .341 -4 1.7 .374
Brendan Rodgers 515 .282 .338 .448 102 .166 .327 -1 1.6 .339
Ezequiel Tovar 413 .275 .320 .437 94 .162 .320 3 1.6 .326
Carlos Perez 430 .245 .305 .439 90 .194 .271 1 1.2 .320
Brian Serven 300 .235 .298 .397 78 .162 .277 8 1.1 .302
José Iglesias 453 .294 .329 .411 91 .117 .329 0 1.1 .321
C.J. Cron 546 .262 .333 .475 107 .213 .312 2 1.1 .344
Wynton Bernard 431 .276 .320 .430 93 .154 .325 0 1.0 .323
Sean Bouchard 404 .255 .334 .457 103 .202 .328 1 0.9 .340
Alan Trejo 428 .255 .290 .438 86 .183 .308 1 0.8 .311
Coco Montes 493 .245 .308 .410 84 .165 .323 2 0.8 .311
Yonathan Daza 419 .293 .338 .389 88 .096 .345 2 0.8 .318
Randal Grichuk 517 .265 .308 .453 94 .188 .311 3 0.6 .325
Warming Bernabel 387 .279 .320 .423 91 .145 .316 0 0.6 .320
Elehuris Montero 486 .253 .313 .434 91 .181 .315 -3 0.6 .322
Willie MacIver 390 .223 .285 .352 65 .130 .296 6 0.5 .280
Tim Lopes 386 .265 .319 .425 91 .160 .332 -3 0.4 .321
Brenton Doyle 491 .252 .292 .408 79 .156 .355 1 0.4 .302
Nolan Jones 445 .251 .340 .418 96 .167 .346 -1 0.4 .331
Jonathan Morales 306 .254 .307 .346 70 .093 .301 2 0.3 .288
Ronaiker Palma 224 .275 .302 .346 68 .071 .308 4 0.3 .283
Hunter Stovall 412 .257 .304 .370 74 .113 .322 0 0.2 .294
Jimmy Herron 387 .252 .326 .394 86 .142 .302 1 0.1 .316
Kyle Holder 312 .244 .304 .339 67 .095 .316 4 0.1 .285
Jack Blomgren 290 .241 .322 .332 71 .091 .328 1 0.0 .293
Bret Boswell 348 .221 .287 .375 70 .155 .314 3 0.0 .289
Daniel Cope 175 .252 .320 .396 85 .145 .333 -4 0.0 .313
Connor Kaiser 209 .223 .290 .351 66 .128 .308 0 0.0 .282
Aaron Schunk 452 .240 .288 .367 69 .126 .313 4 -0.1 .284
Braiden Ward 374 .236 .336 .311 70 .075 .326 -5 -0.1 .297
Kyle Datres 325 .239 .314 .394 83 .156 .309 0 -0.2 .310
Charlie Blackmon 520 .272 .332 .426 95 .153 .318 -7 -0.2 .326
Tyler Hill 259 .267 .322 .381 82 .114 .326 0 -0.2 .306
Hunter Goodman 550 .255 .304 .457 94 .202 .332 -5 -0.2 .325
Colin Simpson 335 .243 .296 .405 79 .162 .316 2 -0.3 .301
D.J. Peterson 338 .225 .296 .408 80 .183 .292 1 -0.3 .306
Yorvis Torrealba 200 .253 .312 .335 68 .082 .308 1 -0.4 .287
Elias Díaz 347 .257 .311 .411 86 .154 .298 -13 -0.5 .313
Niko Decolati 306 .231 .295 .310 58 .079 .316 5 -0.5 .271
Eddy Diaz 460 .250 .302 .329 64 .079 .324 1 -0.5 .280
LJ Hatch 177 .217 .278 .317 54 .099 .330 -2 -0.5 .264
Julio Carreras 500 .246 .291 .373 71 .126 .322 -6 -0.5 .288
Taylor Snyder 379 .220 .264 .395 68 .175 .314 3 -0.6 .283
Michael Toglia 550 .226 .296 .407 80 .181 .307 0 -0.7 .305
Zac Veen 545 .243 .311 .367 75 .124 .332 -2 -0.8 .297
Cole Tucker 382 .229 .291 .346 65 .117 .302 -7 -0.8 .280
Scott Schebler 292 .205 .264 .325 52 .119 .290 3 -1.0 .259
Drew Romo 413 .251 .293 .345 65 .094 .314 -11 -1.1 .279
Grant Lavigne 497 .238 .313 .346 71 .108 .333 0 -1.1 .292
Bladimir Restituyo 420 .242 .260 .332 52 .091 .313 -1 -1.4 .256
Jameson Hannah 350 .255 .307 .348 70 .093 .343 -13 -1.4 .287

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Ryan McMahon Frank Bolick Greg Norton Travis Shaw
Kris Bryant Eric Tipton Johnny Grubb Ira Flagstead
Brendan Rodgers Ramon Martinez Edgardo Alfonzo Bobby Hofman
Ezequiel Tovar Santiago Garcia Shaun Boyd Bip Roberts
Carlos Perez Tim Laker Les Peden Rod Barajas
Brian Serven Dann Bilardello J.R. Murphy Darin Everson
José Iglesias Emil Verban Rey Sanchez Tim Foli
C.J. Cron Wally Judnich Ryan Ludwick Eric Karros
Wynton Bernard Chuck Harmon Mike Kreevich Wayne Kirby
Sean Bouchard Jack Howell Bruce Campbell Michael Tucker
Alan Trejo Alex Gonzalez Dale Berra Luis Rivera
Coco Montes Randy Velarde Jed Hansen Chris Shaddy
Yonathan Daza Drew Martinez Skip Schumaker Ken Woods
Randal Grichuk Mark Saccomanno Jim Poole Brian Hunter
Warming Bernabel Chris Stynes Santiago Garcia Rick Bosetti
Elehuris Montero Rich Murray Kevin Mitchell Andy Hartung
Willie MacIver Daniel Fitzgerald Murphy Sua Dennis Irwin
Tim Lopes Nate Oliver Bobby Adams Pat Kelly
Brenton Doyle Jeremy Moore Johnny Jeter Donovan Casey
Nolan Jones Larry Foster Eddie Haas Warren Newson 뉴선
Jonathan Morales Hector Valle Charles Boone Bob Swift
Ronaiker Palma Luis De La Cruz Oscar Campos Tom Zimmer
Hunter Stovall Hector Luna Ray Olmedo Brandon Wilson
Jimmy Herron Brett Nommensen David Thomas Bob Grandas
Kyle Holder Khayyan Norfork Amado Samuel Rob Swain
Jack Blomgren Mike Myers David Bacani Brock Hebert
Bret Boswell Jeff Garber Chad De La Guerra Rob Sasser
Daniel Cope Dick Kinaman Adam Weisenburger Merritt Ranew
Connor Kaiser Bo Brown Bruce Chaney Alex Fonseca
Aaron Schunk Tim Doerr Jeff Moronko Bobby Latmore
Braiden Ward Brendan Duffy Dan Motl Antoan Richardson
Kyle Datres Derrick Mitchell Mike Maloney Reid Gorecki
Charlie Blackmon Bill Virdon Butch McCord Dick Sisler
Tyler Hill Julio Peguero Matt Szczur Jason McFarlin
Hunter Goodman Scott Shockey Lance Belen Andres Galarraga
Colin Simpson Julio Vinas Oreste Marrero Ed Hartman
D.J. Peterson Andy Wilkins Tony Mitchell Pete Koegel
Yorvis Torrealba Scott Stetson Ryan O’Donnell John McCarthy
Elias Díaz Scott Servais Tom Pagnozzi John Flaherty
Niko Decolati Mike Garner Vance Vizcaino Clay Greene
Eddy Diaz Justin Baughman Sandy Pichardo Greg Tabor
LJ Hatch Yuri Sanchez Warren Sawkiw Gabe Suarez
Julio Carreras Mike Sinnerud Eddie Rogers Luis Bolivar
Taylor Snyder Yamil Benitez Scott Wade Carlos Adolfo
Michael Toglia Charles Howard Jim Koranda Glen Merklen
Zac Veen Tim Raines Damian Jackson Gus Burgess
Cole Tucker Juan Bell Buddy Biancalana Matt Matulia
Scott Schebler Keith Williams Clay Bellinger Chris Van Rossum
Drew Romo Mike Heath Buddy Booker Daulton Varsho
Grant Lavigne Jason Turner Randy Craig Will Kengor
Bladimir Restituyo Willy Taveras Abraham Almonte Christopher Garia
Jameson Hannah Glynn Davis Isaac Collins Steve Carter

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Ryan McMahon .276 .357 .495 116 3.5 .221 .303 .380 77 0.8
Kris Bryant .316 .404 .557 144 2.8 .261 .350 .446 106 0.7
Brendan Rodgers .313 .367 .509 125 2.9 .258 .313 .401 86 0.6
Ezequiel Tovar .304 .345 .493 114 2.5 .251 .291 .383 77 0.7
Carlos Perez .276 .334 .516 114 2.4 .216 .278 .374 70 0.2
Brian Serven .272 .330 .468 102 1.9 .204 .265 .332 57 0.3
José Iglesias .323 .358 .447 107 1.9 .262 .301 .361 71 -0.1
C.J. Cron .287 .356 .527 123 2.1 .234 .308 .413 87 -0.2
Wynton Bernard .308 .350 .489 114 2.1 .248 .289 .375 71 -0.1
Sean Bouchard .282 .362 .512 123 1.8 .228 .311 .399 84 0.0
Alan Trejo .283 .314 .502 106 1.8 .226 .261 .381 64 -0.3
Coco Montes .275 .336 .467 105 1.9 .214 .278 .352 64 -0.4
Yonathan Daza .328 .371 .429 108 1.7 .260 .306 .342 70 -0.2
Randal Grichuk .294 .336 .509 115 1.9 .235 .279 .397 74 -0.6
Warming Bernabel .306 .347 .475 110 1.5 .251 .294 .373 73 -0.3
Elehuris Montero .282 .337 .489 112 1.8 .229 .287 .382 74 -0.4
Willie MacIver .257 .322 .406 85 1.5 .193 .255 .296 43 -0.5
Tim Lopes .296 .347 .477 111 1.4 .236 .291 .371 71 -0.5
Brenton Doyle .281 .321 .456 98 1.5 .219 .260 .358 59 -0.8
Nolan Jones .281 .366 .478 115 1.4 .220 .309 .365 77 -0.7
Jonathan Morales .291 .341 .396 90 1.0 .217 .273 .301 50 -0.4
Ronaiker Palma .316 .341 .397 90 0.9 .237 .266 .302 48 -0.3
Hunter Stovall .286 .333 .414 91 1.1 .229 .277 .328 56 -0.7
Jimmy Herron .279 .355 .453 107 1.1 .219 .294 .339 66 -0.8
Kyle Holder .278 .337 .385 86 0.8 .214 .272 .288 47 -0.6
Jack Blomgren .270 .348 .382 87 0.6 .211 .296 .286 53 -0.5
Bret Boswell .250 .317 .442 92 0.9 .190 .257 .320 50 -0.8
Daniel Cope .287 .357 .468 111 0.5 .213 .284 .350 66 -0.4
Connor Kaiser .257 .325 .416 90 0.6 .189 .255 .298 47 -0.5
Aaron Schunk .271 .316 .418 87 0.9 .214 .258 .324 50 -1.1
Braiden Ward .264 .366 .351 87 0.7 .207 .312 .274 55 -0.8
Kyle Datres .268 .343 .446 103 0.6 .211 .284 .340 62 -1.0
Charlie Blackmon .302 .358 .479 114 0.9 .239 .300 .378 76 -1.4
Tyler Hill .297 .350 .442 103 0.4 .235 .289 .339 65 -0.8
Hunter Goodman .281 .328 .514 114 1.0 .229 .280 .405 77 -1.4
Colin Simpson .270 .325 .463 101 0.6 .215 .269 .349 61 -1.1
D.J. Peterson .259 .334 .480 104 0.6 .198 .270 .344 58 -1.2
Yorvis Torrealba .285 .343 .386 89 0.1 .223 .285 .298 53 -0.7
Elias Díaz .291 .343 .475 108 0.5 .226 .280 .348 63 -1.4
Niko Decolati .264 .326 .361 78 0.3 .203 .268 .275 42 -1.0
Eddy Diaz .281 .333 .372 82 0.5 .222 .276 .290 49 -1.4
LJ Hatch .245 .308 .377 77 0.0 .186 .247 .269 36 -0.9
Julio Carreras .276 .322 .418 87 0.5 .222 .266 .326 54 -1.6
Taylor Snyder .252 .293 .455 89 0.3 .195 .237 .347 49 -1.4
Michael Toglia .257 .327 .459 99 0.6 .196 .268 .351 60 -2.0
Zac Veen .269 .333 .409 91 0.2 .214 .280 .323 58 -1.9
Cole Tucker .256 .318 .401 84 0.0 .200 .262 .302 46 -1.7
Scott Schebler .240 .300 .393 77 -0.2 .177 .237 .276 34 -1.7
Drew Romo .284 .323 .401 88 0.1 .220 .261 .300 48 -2.0
Grant Lavigne .267 .342 .395 88 -0.1 .212 .285 .303 54 -2.2
Bladimir Restituyo .269 .286 .376 69 -0.5 .215 .234 .295 37 -2.2
Jameson Hannah .284 .334 .387 85 -0.8 .226 .279 .306 52 -2.2

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Scott Oberg R 33 2 2 3.90 28 0 32.3 30 14 4 13 28
Daniel Bard R 38 5 5 4.11 51 0 50.3 45 23 5 24 58
Pierce Johnson R 32 3 2 4.19 43 1 38.7 38 18 5 15 45
Tyler Kinley R 32 2 2 4.31 48 0 48.0 45 23 7 18 48
Germán Márquez R 28 10 10 4.32 28 28 166.7 162 80 21 52 147
Brent Suter L 33 4 5 4.47 48 1 58.3 63 29 8 18 44
Dinelson Lamet R 30 2 3 4.63 35 6 56.3 51 29 9 24 70
Jake Bird R 27 4 5 4.64 52 1 66.0 63 34 7 29 60
Justin Lawrence R 28 3 3 4.68 56 0 57.7 54 30 6 31 63
PJ Poulin L 26 3 5 4.72 52 0 55.3 55 29 7 23 54
Dugan Darnell R 26 2 4 4.81 40 0 48.7 48 26 7 23 50
Gavin Hollowell R 25 3 4 4.86 45 0 46.3 45 25 7 17 48
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 26 3 3 4.89 38 0 49.7 54 27 8 16 42
Austin Gomber L 29 5 7 4.89 26 16 106.7 111 58 18 33 90
Antonio Senzatela R 28 5 7 4.93 22 22 115.0 137 63 14 32 68
Kyle Freeland L 30 7 10 4.95 26 26 145.3 162 80 23 47 111
Alex Colomé R 34 3 5 4.98 51 0 47.0 51 26 6 20 36
Jared Biddy R 26 2 2 4.98 29 0 43.3 50 24 7 13 31
Blake Goldsberry R 26 1 2 5.06 31 1 37.3 41 21 6 11 30
Stephen Jones R 25 2 2 5.07 46 0 49.7 53 28 8 21 44
Reagan Todd L 27 3 5 5.11 46 0 44.0 44 25 7 23 46
Logan Cozart R 30 1 1 5.12 37 0 38.7 42 22 6 18 32
Zach Neal R 34 4 6 5.14 24 17 96.3 115 55 15 24 62
Dillon Overton L 31 4 7 5.15 17 15 71.7 83 41 11 23 50
JD Hammer R 28 1 2 5.16 48 0 45.3 47 26 6 27 41
Ryan Feltner R 26 6 10 5.16 27 26 129.0 136 74 23 49 114
Joe Rock L 22 6 9 5.18 22 22 107.7 117 62 15 50 84
Peter Lambert R 26 4 5 5.20 21 21 100.3 112 58 14 37 72
Zach Lee R 31 4 5 5.22 39 8 70.7 81 41 11 28 51
Noah Gotsis R 27 5 8 5.23 24 12 72.3 85 42 11 22 49
Ashton Goudeau R 30 3 4 5.29 28 12 78.3 90 46 12 26 48
Brandon Gold R 28 5 8 5.31 24 20 101.7 125 60 17 31 60
Boby Johnson R 26 2 3 5.40 36 0 48.3 57 29 8 20 36
Chad Kuhl R 30 6 9 5.42 25 22 116.3 121 70 20 53 99
Logan Allen L 26 3 6 5.42 28 13 76.3 84 46 11 33 59
Austin Kitchen L 26 2 4 5.43 30 5 64.7 78 39 11 21 39
Lucas Gilbreath L 27 3 5 5.45 40 9 74.3 77 45 11 44 75
Nick Bush L 26 4 5 5.46 18 18 89.0 102 54 18 22 67
Phillips Valdez R 31 2 2 5.47 39 3 52.7 57 32 7 27 42
Mitchell Kilkenny R 26 4 8 5.48 21 21 92.0 112 56 15 27 54
Jeff Criswell R 24 5 8 5.49 22 19 103.3 114 63 19 43 81
Michael Baird R 27 2 3 5.49 18 11 59.0 68 36 12 22 48
Corey Oswalt R 29 3 6 5.56 18 11 55.0 66 34 10 16 38
Frank Duncan R 31 3 6 5.57 16 15 74.3 94 46 11 22 46
Karl Kauffmann R 25 6 10 5.60 24 24 115.7 134 72 18 62 84
José Ureña R 31 4 6 5.63 22 18 94.3 112 59 15 41 61
Blair Calvo R 27 2 4 5.65 29 0 43.0 49 27 8 18 37
Ty Blach L 32 2 5 5.69 28 7 74.3 93 47 12 21 46
Nate Griep R 29 1 2 5.70 32 0 30.0 33 19 5 17 24
Jhoulys Chacín R 35 2 4 5.71 28 5 52.0 58 33 9 25 40
Heath Holder R 30 2 3 5.76 30 3 50.0 54 32 9 27 44
Joel Peguero R 26 2 4 5.76 43 3 50.0 57 32 7 26 36
T.J. Zeuch R 27 3 5 5.38 18 14 73.7 85 44 12 32 57
Riley Pint R 25 1 3 5.79 38 0 37.3 37 24 6 23 38
Noah Davis R 26 5 8 5.80 23 23 108.7 119 70 19 52 87
Will Ethridge R 25 4 8 5.81 20 19 91.3 108 59 16 35 56
Andrew Quezada R 26 4 7 5.85 18 16 80.0 99 52 15 32 49
Jordan Sheffield R 28 1 1 5.87 33 1 30.7 32 20 5 17 24
Mike Ruff R 25 4 9 5.88 20 20 90.3 104 59 16 40 65
Matt Dennis R 28 4 6 5.89 26 11 84.0 104 55 15 31 46
Matt Koch R 32 2 5 6.03 30 5 59.7 69 40 11 24 49
Nick Kennedy L 27 1 3 6.07 43 0 46.0 54 31 8 24 31
Trent Fennell R 27 1 3 6.07 23 4 43.0 49 29 8 27 34
Ryan Rolison L 25 2 5 6.09 14 14 65.0 79 44 15 25 51
Eli Lingos L 27 2 3 5.19 30 5 60.7 65 35 11 24 44
Nick Kuzia R 27 3 6 6.33 37 1 48.3 53 34 9 27 41
Will Gaddis R 27 3 6 6.38 33 8 73.3 98 52 15 28 35
Tony Locey R 24 3 6 6.53 23 16 80.0 92 58 15 53 60
Garrett Schilling R 27 2 6 6.67 15 12 58.0 73 43 14 28 42

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Scott Oberg 32.3 7.8 3.6 1.1 9.3% 20.0% .280 124 4.24 80 0.4
Daniel Bard 50.3 10.4 4.3 0.9 10.9% 26.4% .308 118 3.81 85 0.7
Pierce Johnson 38.7 10.5 3.5 1.2 8.8% 26.3% .324 116 3.75 86 0.4
Tyler Kinley 48.0 9.0 3.4 1.3 8.7% 23.2% .290 112 4.24 89 0.4
Germán Márquez 166.7 7.9 2.8 1.1 7.3% 20.6% .293 112 4.04 89 2.6
Brent Suter 58.3 6.8 2.8 1.2 7.1% 17.5% .302 108 4.46 92 0.4
Dinelson Lamet 56.3 11.2 3.8 1.4 9.7% 28.3% .304 105 4.24 96 0.6
Jake Bird 66.0 8.2 4.0 1.0 10.0% 20.8% .296 105 4.35 96 0.4
Justin Lawrence 57.7 9.8 4.8 0.9 11.9% 24.2% .312 104 4.19 97 0.3
PJ Poulin 55.3 8.8 3.7 1.1 9.5% 22.4% .308 103 4.31 97 0.3
Dugan Darnell 48.7 9.2 4.3 1.3 10.6% 22.9% .306 101 4.57 99 0.2
Gavin Hollowell 46.3 9.3 3.3 1.4 8.5% 24.1% .302 100 4.34 100 0.2
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith 49.7 7.6 2.9 1.4 7.3% 19.3% .309 99 4.58 101 0.1
Austin Gomber 106.7 7.6 2.8 1.5 7.2% 19.7% .295 99 4.64 101 1.1
Antonio Senzatela 115.0 5.3 2.5 1.1 6.3% 13.4% .315 98 4.52 102 1.3
Kyle Freeland 145.3 6.9 2.9 1.4 7.4% 17.4% .307 98 4.82 102 1.6
Alex Colomé 47.0 6.9 3.8 1.1 9.5% 17.1% .308 97 4.69 103 0.1
Jared Biddy 43.3 6.4 2.7 1.5 6.8% 16.1% .309 97 4.93 103 0.1
Blake Goldsberry 37.3 7.2 2.7 1.4 6.7% 18.4% .307 96 4.68 104 0.1
Stephen Jones 49.7 8.0 3.8 1.4 9.5% 19.8% .308 96 4.93 105 0.1
Reagan Todd 44.0 9.4 4.7 1.4 11.6% 23.1% .308 95 4.90 105 0.1
Logan Cozart 38.7 7.4 4.2 1.4 10.3% 18.3% .308 95 4.99 106 0.0
Zach Neal 96.3 5.8 2.2 1.4 5.7% 14.7% .313 94 4.82 106 0.9
Dillon Overton 71.7 6.3 2.9 1.4 7.2% 15.7% .312 94 4.84 106 0.7
JD Hammer 45.3 8.1 5.4 1.2 12.9% 19.6% .308 94 4.92 106 0.0
Ryan Feltner 129.0 8.0 3.4 1.6 8.6% 20.1% .300 94 4.96 106 1.2
Joe Rock 107.7 7.0 4.2 1.3 10.2% 17.1% .306 94 4.91 107 1.0
Peter Lambert 100.3 6.5 3.3 1.3 8.3% 16.1% .307 93 4.82 107 0.9
Zach Lee 70.7 6.5 3.6 1.4 8.8% 16.1% .310 93 5.05 108 0.4
Noah Gotsis 72.3 6.1 2.7 1.4 6.9% 15.3% .314 93 4.81 108 0.6
Ashton Goudeau 78.3 5.5 3.0 1.4 7.4% 13.8% .301 92 5.03 109 0.6
Brandon Gold 101.7 5.3 2.7 1.5 6.8% 13.2% .313 91 5.18 110 0.9
Boby Johnson 48.3 6.7 3.7 1.5 9.0% 16.3% .318 90 5.24 111 -0.1
Chad Kuhl 116.3 7.7 4.1 1.5 10.2% 19.0% .294 90 5.23 112 0.8
Logan Allen 76.3 7.0 3.9 1.3 9.6% 17.2% .308 89 5.05 112 0.5
Austin Kitchen 64.7 5.4 2.9 1.5 7.2% 13.4% .309 89 5.27 112 0.2
Lucas Gilbreath 74.3 9.1 5.3 1.3 12.8% 21.9% .316 89 5.04 112 0.4
Nick Bush 89.0 6.8 2.2 1.8 5.7% 17.4% .303 89 5.05 113 0.6
Phillips Valdez 52.7 7.2 4.6 1.2 11.2% 17.4% .309 89 5.28 113 0.1
Mitchell Kilkenny 92.0 5.3 2.6 1.5 6.6% 13.2% .312 89 5.14 113 0.6
Jeff Criswell 103.3 7.1 3.7 1.7 9.2% 17.4% .301 88 5.34 113 0.7
Michael Baird 59.0 7.3 3.4 1.8 8.2% 18.0% .309 88 5.34 113 0.4
Corey Oswalt 55.0 6.2 2.6 1.6 6.5% 15.5% .313 87 5.12 115 0.3
Frank Duncan 74.3 5.6 2.7 1.3 6.5% 13.7% .327 87 5.01 115 0.5
Karl Kauffmann 115.7 6.5 4.8 1.4 11.5% 15.6% .314 87 5.51 116 0.7
José Ureña 94.3 5.8 3.9 1.4 9.5% 14.2% .312 86 5.33 116 0.5
Blair Calvo 43.0 7.7 3.8 1.7 9.2% 18.9% .315 86 5.39 117 -0.1
Ty Blach 74.3 5.6 2.5 1.5 6.3% 13.8% .321 85 4.94 117 0.2
Nate Griep 30.0 7.2 5.1 1.5 12.1% 17.1% .304 85 5.52 118 -0.1
Jhoulys Chacín 52.0 6.9 4.3 1.6 10.5% 16.9% .304 85 5.42 118 0.1
Heath Holder 50.0 7.9 4.9 1.6 11.7% 19.0% .306 84 5.65 119 0.0
Joel Peguero 50.0 6.5 4.7 1.3 11.1% 15.3% .313 84 5.27 119 -0.1
T.J. Zeuch 73.7 7.0 3.9 1.5 9.6% 17.0% .316 83 5.23 121 0.4
Riley Pint 37.3 9.2 5.5 1.4 13.1% 21.6% .304 84 5.54 119 -0.2
Noah Davis 108.7 7.2 4.3 1.6 10.6% 17.7% .302 84 5.62 120 0.5
Will Ethridge 91.3 5.5 3.4 1.6 8.4% 13.4% .304 83 5.58 120 0.4
Andrew Quezada 80.0 5.5 3.6 1.7 8.6% 13.2% .312 83 5.68 121 0.3
Jordan Sheffield 30.7 7.0 5.0 1.5 12.0% 16.9% .290 83 5.47 121 -0.1
Mike Ruff 90.3 6.5 4.0 1.6 9.6% 15.7% .307 82 5.74 121 0.4
Matt Dennis 84.0 4.9 3.3 1.6 8.1% 12.0% .309 82 5.77 122 0.2
Matt Koch 59.7 7.4 3.6 1.7 8.9% 18.1% .315 80 5.32 124 -0.1
Nick Kennedy 46.0 6.1 4.7 1.6 11.2% 14.4% .309 80 5.89 125 -0.3
Trent Fennell 43.0 7.1 5.7 1.7 13.0% 16.4% .308 80 6.08 125 -0.1
Ryan Rolison 65.0 7.1 3.5 2.1 8.4% 17.2% .315 80 5.83 126 0.1
Eli Lingos 60.7 6.5 3.6 1.6 8.9% 16.4% .289 80 5.30 126 -0.3
Nick Kuzia 48.3 7.6 5.0 1.7 12.0% 18.2% .306 77 5.86 131 -0.4
Will Gaddis 73.3 4.3 3.4 1.8 8.2% 10.2% .317 76 6.09 132 -0.3
Tony Locey 80.0 6.8 6.0 1.7 13.7% 15.5% .307 74 6.34 135 -0.2
Garrett Schilling 58.0 6.5 4.3 2.2 10.3% 15.4% .316 73 6.50 138 -0.2

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Scott Oberg Santiago Casilla Jumbo Brown Johnny Murphy 0.7 0.1 3.15 5.01
Daniel Bard Fernando Rodney Al Worthington Diego Segui 1.4 0.1 3.13 5.37
Pierce Johnson Jose Vargas John Habyan Chaz Roe 0.7 0.0 3.14 5.63
Tyler Kinley Santiago Casilla Felix Rodriguez 로드리게스 Fernando Rodney 0.8 -0.1 3.50 5.52
Germán Márquez Mike Foltynewicz Sonny Gray Taijuan Walker 3.5 1.6 3.87 4.90
Brent Suter Tony Castillo Paul Lindblad Blaine Hardy 0.8 0.0 3.74 5.37
Dinelson Lamet Wayne Twitchell Simon Castro Don Elston 1.1 0.0 3.59 6.11
Jake Bird Bud Anderson Pete Mikkelsen Danys Baez 0.8 -0.1 4.05 5.55
Justin Lawrence Ken Crosby Jay Buente Mike Barlow 0.7 -0.3 3.97 5.78
PJ Poulin Ray King Bill Lee John Hiller 0.7 -0.2 3.89 5.70
Dugan Darnell Barry Jones Mike Marshall Jack Lamabe 0.5 -0.3 4.11 5.69
Gavin Hollowell Brian Drahman Doug Corbett Fernando Salas 0.6 -0.2 4.07 6.02
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith Frank Eufemia Matt Pierpont Billy Spottiswood 0.5 -0.2 4.11 5.68
Austin Gomber Dennis Cook Joe Shaute Johnny Schmitz 1.6 0.4 4.32 5.70
Antonio Senzatela Chien-Ming Wang Kendall Graveman Mike Pelfrey 1.7 0.7 4.50 5.52
Kyle Freeland Joe Saunders Ken Holtzman Omar Daal 2.4 0.8 4.37 5.67
Alex Colomé Antonio Alfonseca Jose Mesa Tom Edens 0.4 -0.3 4.23 6.24
Jared Biddy Justin Huisman Chuck Dale Bill Castro 0.3 -0.2 4.32 5.64
Blake Goldsberry Bob Undorf Dick Hendrix Darrell Einertson 0.4 -0.1 4.32 5.86
Stephen Jones Frank Batista Stephen Dodson Terry Cornutt 0.4 -0.2 4.51 5.75
Reagan Todd Jaime Cerda Sergio Escalona Jerry Vasto 0.4 -0.2 4.34 6.00
Logan Cozart Justin Pope Vinnie Chulk Francis Beltran 0.3 -0.3 4.45 6.02
Zach Neal George Bamberger Tony Ponce Steve Fireovid 1.5 0.4 4.57 5.81
Dillon Overton Horacio Estrada Casey Harman Jack Kralick 1.1 0.3 4.57 5.89
JD Hammer Terry Bross Wes Littleton Jim Austin 0.3 -0.4 4.52 6.23
Ryan Feltner Matt Keough Pat Hentgen Alan Benes 2.0 0.3 4.55 5.95
Joe Rock Bob Sykes Derek Thompson Chuck Ross 1.5 0.3 4.71 5.84
Peter Lambert Jacob Turner 터너 Rod Nichols Shaun Anderson 1.5 0.3 4.64 5.84
Zach Lee Bobby Locke Ray Soff Jack Crimian 0.9 0.0 4.55 5.94
Noah Gotsis Tim Sexton Erik Sabel Ben Blomdahl 0.9 0.2 4.69 5.85
Ashton Goudeau Edgmer Escalona Jake Thies Marty Clary 1.0 0.1 4.71 5.98
Brandon Gold Tony McKnight Gary Wilson Travis Buckley 1.4 0.4 4.79 5.85
Boby Johnson R.D. Spiehs Aaron Williams Randy Newsom 0.2 -0.4 4.83 6.11
Chad Kuhl Tom Koehler Roger Pavlik Edinson Volquez 1.5 0.0 4.85 6.18
Logan Allen Ron Locke Joe Savery Ben Kozlowski 0.9 0.0 4.89 6.08
Austin Kitchen Nain Lopez Bryan Gore Scott Navarro 0.6 -0.1 4.86 6.03
Lucas Gilbreath Manny Banuelos Luis Perez Jorge De La Rosa 1.0 -0.3 4.64 6.34
Nick Bush Eric Skoglund Josh Rogers Evan Grills 1.1 0.1 4.85 6.17
Phillips Valdez Mike Buddie Bud Anderson Mike Parrott 0.4 -0.3 4.81 6.43
Mitchell Kilkenny Mike Lee John Gelnar Blake Johnson 1.0 0.2 5.02 6.05
Jeff Criswell Jeff Peterek Kent Bottenfield Skip Lockwood 1.3 0.1 4.94 6.10
Michael Baird Chris Corn Lloyd Peever Bruce Cunningham 0.7 0.0 4.84 6.10
Corey Oswalt Brad Rigby Bart Johnson Brady Rodgers 0.6 0.0 5.03 6.26
Frank Duncan Jim McDonald Donn Roach 로치 Art Houtteman 0.8 0.1 5.06 6.25
Karl Kauffmann Brooks Brown Jason Standridge Geoff Edsell 1.2 0.1 5.16 6.19
José Ureña Andrew Cashner Odrisamer Despaigne 데스파이네 John Mackinson 0.9 0.0 5.16 6.33
Blair Calvo Wallace Smallwood Anderson Garcia Brandon Shimo 0.2 -0.5 4.80 6.60
Ty Blach Ramon Garcia Jeff Ballard Joe Murray 0.6 -0.2 5.03 6.46
Nate Griep Terry Cornutt Bobby Reis Daryl Patterson 0.1 -0.4 5.01 6.79
Jhoulys Chacín Tanyon Sturtze Tom Timmermann Marlin Stuart 0.4 -0.3 4.97 6.63
Heath Holder Rocky Cherry Tim Barrett Bruce Dal Canton 0.4 -0.4 4.99 6.67
Joel Peguero Charlie Walters Brett Merriman Hector Chavarria 0.2 -0.4 5.20 6.60
T.J. Zeuch Mike Nagy Mike Bacsik Jordan Pries 0.8 -0.2 4.85 6.22
Riley Pint Gene Pentz Rick Raether Manuel Rodriguez 0.1 -0.5 5.00 6.77
Noah Davis Aaron Blair Anthony Lerew 앤서니 William Cuevas 쿠에바스 1.0 -0.2 5.27 6.51
Will Ethridge Justin Donatella T.J. Zeuch Sterling Sharp 0.9 0.0 5.30 6.41
Andrew Quezada Eric Wikstrom Mario Brito Kyle Evans 0.7 -0.1 5.32 6.44
Jordan Sheffield Daryl Patterson Johnny Humphries Mike Heinen 0.0 -0.4 5.25 6.67
Mike Ruff Preston Larrison Bob Harris Jon Moscot 0.8 -0.1 5.36 6.43
Matt Dennis Greg Kallevig Jeremy Kehrt Alec Asher 0.6 -0.3 5.38 6.52
Matt Koch Jeremy Hernandez Mike Johnson Pete Smith 0.4 -0.5 5.13 7.01
Nick Kennedy Anthony Ferrari James Thomas Bob Buchanan 0.0 -0.6 5.40 6.88
Trent Fennell Chris Malone John Ogiltree Jack Lazorko 0.2 -0.5 5.42 7.04
Ryan Rolison Tommy Hottovy Dave Noyce Ari Ronick 0.5 -0.2 5.46 6.82
Eli Lingos Tommy Phelps Matt Tenuta Austin Hamilton 0.1 -0.8 4.61 5.91
Nick Kuzia Dick Balderson Greg Holt Gary Parmenter -0.1 -0.8 5.58 7.32
Will Gaddis Billy Stokley Ashton Goudeau Brannon Easterling 0.1 -0.6 5.81 6.97
Tony Locey Ryan Pressly Carlos Polanco Ty Buttrey 0.3 -0.7 5.97 7.27
Garrett Schilling Brandon Mozley Mike Henry Matt Pool 0.1 -0.6 6.08 7.48

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Matthew Brophymember
1 month ago

Ryan McMahon is in the infographic but appears to be missing from the tables?