2022 ZiPS Projections: Chicago White Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago White Sox.

Batters

The White Sox offense projects similarly to how it did prior to the 2021 season, which is good news for the team considering how easily they made the playoffs. But that also means the fundamental problems in the offense remain, with an additional issue compared to last year. ZiPS may be underestimating Eloy Jiménez — it’s always hard to evaluate players coming back from injury — but we can’t pretend that there isn’t some risk involved there. The remaining outfield position and DH are thornier concerns, and ZiPS is more pessimistic here than Steamer is. This is not a popular opinion, but if the White Sox plan to use Andrew Vaughn like our depth charts indicate they will, I really hope they just let him crush Triple-A pitching for a few months rather than juggling him with Gavin Sheets and Adam Engel. The basic problem is that though Vaughn was deservedly a terrific prospect, and 2020’s lost season of course did him no favors, he still doesn’t have a professional season in line with what you would expect from a top first base prospect.

ZiPS did not see huge upside remaining for Nick Madrigal given how low his power ceiling is, but him being missing here is a loss, regardless of whether you think picking up Craig Kimbrel was worth the exchange. Danny Mendick is an adequate enough stopgap, but isn’t terribly exciting, and the computer is not sold on Romy Gonzalez, at least, not yet. The Sox do have some breathing room in the division, but like Vaughn, I would like them to see how Gonzalez does in Triple-A and take the less risky path here. I was disappointed that the team didn’t pick up César Hernández’s option, even though he didn’t play particularly well in Chicago.

Tim Anderson, Yoán Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, and Luis Robert are the big playoff pushers here. You may not be familiar with Grandal’s top comp, but Duke Sims is an interesting one. Grandal is the better player, but Sims had a nice little peak in his late 20s until he got supplanted by Ray Fosse (he had already been traded before Fosse’s famous collision with Pete Rose).

Pitchers

There are few complaints about the rotation here. I think they could still use another arm, but four of the five likely starters for the Sox have a projected ERA+ north of 110. The only exception is Dallas Keuchel, but ZiPS sees him having a bounce-back season and at least eating innings for the team; a 99 ERA+ would be an excellent result for a team’s fifth starter. The only thing really keeping Kopech down is that I’m still not totally convinced about his 2022 role, even though I think logic dictates he’s in the rotation, though possibly with more care than his rotation-mates. Reynaldo López is just fine to have around as a spare starter, and if the Sox are only willing to spend so much money this offseason, you can make the argument that a hitter is the greater need, even assuming that Carlos Rodón does not return to the team. ZiPS has a certain fascination with Johan Dominguez as worthy of some mop-up duty, but I’m skeptical until he does it in the high minors.

Don’t be alarmed by Dylan Cease’s top comp of Bobby Witt. This comparison is from the era when it looked like Witt had figured things out. That era turned out to be rather short-lived, but that doesn’t mean that will be the case for Cease.

The bullpen is deep and though Craig Kimbrel ranks highly in the group, his projection is weak enough to make me wonder if picking up his option was a good idea from the point of view of a contender; Chicago may look to trade him this winter. Jimmy Cordero, outrighted recently, is coming off Tommy John surgery and feels like the kind of reliever who could pop up in August with the Dodgers or Rays or Brewers.

One pedantic note for 2022: For the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Yasmani Grandal S 33 C 467 375 61 88 15 1 23 70 82 116 1 1
Luis Robert R 24 CF 500 459 68 128 24 4 22 68 29 126 16 5
Yoán Moncada S 27 3B 622 546 80 142 30 4 21 71 67 169 6 2
Tim Anderson R 29 SS 581 554 91 164 29 2 20 61 22 121 19 7
José Abreu R 35 1B 614 549 75 145 31 2 27 109 44 135 1 0
Jake Burger R 26 3B 530 473 62 119 17 1 20 56 40 99 2 2
Eloy Jiménez R 25 LF 468 435 56 120 22 1 26 80 27 114 0 0
Cesar Hernandez S 32 2B 618 549 77 134 22 2 16 60 60 125 4 2
Carlos Perez R 25 C 442 414 43 96 20 0 13 52 19 62 1 0
Adam Engel R 30 CF 385 354 44 85 17 3 12 39 19 96 13 4
Andrew Vaughn R 24 LF 504 445 59 109 25 0 19 52 45 110 1 2
Gavin Sheets L 26 1B 446 407 54 104 20 0 21 72 32 101 1 1
Danny Mendick R 28 SS 447 398 47 93 15 1 10 41 41 95 7 5
Romy Gonzalez R 25 SS 448 414 51 92 18 1 17 54 28 142 13 3
Yoelqui Cespedes R 24 CF 341 320 34 78 15 1 8 29 12 108 11 3
Yolbert Sanchez R 25 2B 415 399 44 110 11 0 9 36 15 60 3 0
Mikie Mahtook R 32 CF 424 387 48 84 13 2 19 56 27 118 7 3
Jose Rodriguez R 21 SS 543 521 63 136 22 2 17 56 17 90 17 6
Leury García S 31 2B 499 454 61 118 20 3 8 46 30 105 9 3
Matt Reynolds R 31 SS 381 340 39 73 17 2 6 29 35 106 3 2
Bryan Ramos R 20 3B 539 489 59 102 19 2 20 58 30 140 8 1
Xavier Fernández R 26 C 283 261 31 61 10 0 9 28 16 55 2 1
Zack Collins L 27 C 358 302 40 59 14 1 11 42 50 123 1 0
Tim Beckham R 32 SS 321 298 37 70 15 1 13 42 20 87 2 2
Rubén Tejada R 32 3B 328 296 31 64 11 1 4 21 23 66 2 2
Billy Hamilton R 31 CF 293 268 39 54 9 3 3 14 20 81 21 4
Brian Goodwin L 31 RF 383 341 44 75 17 1 12 43 37 109 5 2
Yermín Mercedes R 29 1B 456 419 49 105 17 1 15 57 28 84 2 1
Lenyn Sosa R 22 SS 539 519 52 120 22 1 11 44 14 123 3 5
Laz Rivera R 27 3B 408 381 39 86 16 1 7 32 11 94 8 7
Evan Skoug L 26 C 215 193 19 30 6 1 6 20 18 79 1 0
Zach Remillard R 28 SS 425 390 41 77 11 1 10 34 25 132 8 4
JJ Muno L 28 3B 231 204 22 36 4 2 5 19 14 72 8 3
Tyler Neslony L 28 LF 301 274 30 58 13 1 7 26 22 82 3 2
Micker Adolfo R 25 RF 387 353 44 74 18 1 16 49 26 145 3 2
Seby Zavala R 28 C 340 309 36 58 11 0 13 39 22 135 0 1
Joel Booker R 28 CF 314 291 28 56 9 1 5 22 13 105 12 4
Jameson Fisher L 28 1B 414 374 41 79 15 1 9 35 32 122 2 2
Gunnar Troutwine R 26 C 216 194 21 37 7 0 4 15 19 67 0 0
Craig Dedelow L 27 RF 458 422 43 78 16 2 14 47 28 167 2 2
Blake Rutherford L 25 LF 508 478 48 107 20 4 8 43 23 135 6 3
Alex Destino L 26 RF 454 417 47 81 12 1 16 49 32 159 1 0
Marco Hernandez L 29 2B 369 349 34 81 14 1 4 24 9 73 2 3
Samir Dueñez L 26 1B 376 344 36 67 12 1 11 36 26 109 2 0
Harvin Mendoza L 23 1B 489 451 46 105 16 0 7 33 28 77 1 0
Luis Mieses L 22 RF 503 473 53 111 25 2 16 58 17 101 0 0
Joe DeCarlo R 28 1B 195 177 17 30 5 0 4 13 14 63 0 0
Mitch Roman R 27 2B 331 303 27 55 7 1 2 16 23 115 10 3
Jagger Rusconi S 25 2B 295 276 23 49 10 1 3 16 12 111 2 2
Ti’Quan Forbes R 25 1B 426 395 38 84 14 2 6 30 22 116 3 4
Luis Curbelo R 24 3B 477 448 46 77 17 2 19 55 24 198 1 1

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Yasmani Grandal .235 .373 .464 128 .229 .275 6.1 4 3.9 Duke Sims
Luis Robert .279 .330 .492 121 .214 .341 6.2 3 3.2 Rondell White
Yoán Moncada .260 .346 .445 115 .185 .340 5.7 1 3.2 Travis Fryman
Tim Anderson .296 .325 .464 113 .168 .349 5.9 -4 2.8 Michael Young
José Abreu .264 .331 .475 117 .211 .305 5.8 -2 1.9 Bill Skowron
Jake Burger .252 .325 .419 102 .167 .280 4.9 -1 1.7 Peter Ciofrone
Eloy Jiménez .276 .319 .510 122 .234 .319 6.1 -5 1.6 Mark Quinn
Cesar Hernandez .244 .323 .379 92 .135 .289 4.4 0 1.4 Marv Owen
Carlos Perez .232 .270 .374 74 .143 .245 3.6 10 1.3 Yadier Molina
Adam Engel .240 .295 .407 90 .167 .297 4.4 3 1.2 Darnell McDonald
Andrew Vaughn .245 .325 .429 105 .184 .285 4.9 -1 1.1 Marc Newfield
Gavin Sheets .256 .311 .459 107 .204 .291 5.2 1 1.1 Danny Lewis
Danny Mendick .234 .309 .352 81 .118 .283 3.8 4 1.1 Chris Gomez
Romy Gonzalez .222 .277 .394 81 .171 .294 4.0 2 0.9 Jose Fernandez
Yoelqui Cespedes .244 .290 .372 80 .128 .343 4.0 4 0.7 Curt Flood
Yolbert Sanchez .276 .304 .371 84 .095 .306 4.3 1 0.7 Chris Getz
Mikie Mahtook .217 .275 .408 84 .191 .260 3.9 2 0.6 Damon Buford
Jose Rodriguez .261 .285 .409 87 .148 .287 4.4 -6 0.6 Chin-Lung Hu
Leury García .260 .310 .370 85 .110 .323 4.3 -3 0.5 Adam Kennedy
Matt Reynolds .215 .290 .329 70 .115 .294 3.3 4 0.4 Bobby Scales
Bryan Ramos .209 .272 .378 76 .170 .249 3.6 1 0.3 Adam Fox
Xavier Fernández .234 .281 .375 78 .142 .264 3.7 -1 0.2 Gary Bennett
Zack Collins .195 .311 .358 83 .162 .286 3.8 -8 0.1 Eric Helfand
Tim Beckham .235 .287 .423 91 .188 .288 4.2 -8 0.0 Scott Seabol
Rubén Tejada .216 .284 .301 61 .084 .265 2.9 4 -0.2 Kevin Baez
Billy Hamilton .201 .255 .291 50 .090 .277 3.0 4 -0.3 Rich Thompson
Brian Goodwin .220 .298 .381 85 .161 .286 4.0 -4 -0.4 Orsino Hill
Yermín Mercedes .251 .299 .403 90 .153 .281 4.3 -5 -0.4 Chan Perry
Lenyn Sosa .231 .255 .341 61 .110 .283 2.9 3 -0.4 Andres Thomas
Laz Rivera .226 .265 .328 61 .102 .282 2.9 3 -0.5 Jace Brewer
Evan Skoug .155 .234 .290 43 .135 .222 2.2 1 -0.5 Dave Ullery
Zach Remillard .197 .255 .308 54 .110 .270 2.6 3 -0.5 Chris Petersen
JJ Muno .176 .261 .289 51 .113 .244 2.6 0 -0.5 Brian Keck
Tyler Neslony .212 .273 .343 68 .131 .276 3.2 1 -0.6 Greg Creek
Micker Adolfo .210 .272 .402 81 .193 .302 3.7 -4 -0.6 Brian McFall
Seby Zavala .188 .246 .350 61 .162 .280 2.8 -3 -0.6 Dane Sardinha
Joel Booker .192 .238 .282 42 .089 .282 2.4 2 -0.9 Martin Foley
Jameson Fisher .211 .277 .329 65 .118 .288 3.1 0 -1.2 Craig Cooper
Gunnar Troutwine .191 .265 .289 52 .098 .268 2.6 -9 -1.2 J.C. Boscan
Craig Dedelow .185 .241 .332 55 .147 .266 2.6 5 -1.3 Kris Harvey
Blake Rutherford .224 .261 .333 61 .109 .296 3.0 2 -1.5 Alex Negron
Alex Destino .194 .256 .343 62 .149 .269 3.0 -2 -1.5 Ryan Kane
Marco Hernandez .232 .255 .312 54 .080 .283 2.7 -5 -1.5 Brandon Pinckney
Samir Dueñez .195 .251 .331 58 .137 .250 2.8 -1 -1.6 John Lindsey
Harvin Mendoza .233 .282 .315 64 .082 .267 3.1 -1 -1.6 Dennis Colon
Luis Mieses .235 .263 .397 77 .163 .267 3.7 -10 -1.6 Eric Welsh
Joe DeCarlo .169 .237 .266 38 .096 .236 2.0 -6 -1.7 Chris Tremie
Mitch Roman .182 .242 .231 31 .050 .285 2.0 -1 -1.8 Chuck Abbott
Jagger Rusconi .178 .222 .254 30 .076 .284 1.8 -2 -1.8 Leury Bonilla
Ti’Quan Forbes .213 .264 .304 55 .091 .286 2.6 -1 -1.9 Greg Porter
Luis Curbelo .172 .216 .346 50 .174 .251 2.4 -6 -2.2 Tom Schmidt

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Lucas Giolito R 27 13 8 3.36 30 30 174.3 135 65 23 55 217 3.42
Dylan Cease R 26 12 8 3.88 32 32 162.3 136 70 20 76 204 3.82
Lance Lynn R 35 10 8 3.98 27 26 149.3 137 66 23 50 158 4.17
Carlos Rodon L 29 9 6 3.88 21 20 106.7 89 46 16 41 133 3.96
Dallas Keuchel L 34 9 8 4.46 27 26 145.3 153 72 21 49 104 4.74
Liam Hendriks R 33 6 3 2.83 62 0 63.7 47 20 9 15 94 2.82
Michael Kopech R 26 5 3 3.76 34 9 76.7 62 32 10 36 103 3.75
Reynaldo Lopez R 28 9 9 4.76 30 24 128.7 124 68 23 48 120 4.87
Aaron Bummer L 28 4 2 3.10 60 0 58.0 45 20 4 26 70 3.16
Johan Dominguez R 26 7 7 4.79 24 23 99.7 106 53 16 32 79 4.83
Tanner Banks L 30 5 5 4.67 24 13 90.7 98 47 14 22 65 4.65
Garrett Crochet L 23 5 3 3.29 52 0 52.0 41 19 5 23 66 3.33
Jason Bilous R 24 6 7 4.96 23 23 89.0 91 49 16 38 84 5.08
Kyle Kubat L 29 5 5 4.78 26 12 81.0 89 43 13 20 59 4.70
Craig Kimbrel R 34 4 3 3.75 54 0 48.0 33 20 8 25 75 3.97
Kade McClure R 26 5 6 5.08 23 23 101.0 110 57 18 34 81 5.08
Jimmy Cordero R 30 4 3 3.88 60 0 65.0 61 28 5 31 56 4.12
Emilio Vargas R 25 5 6 5.10 22 18 90.0 94 51 18 32 80 5.24
Jace Fry L 28 3 3 3.96 50 1 50.0 41 22 5 29 61 3.90
Jimmy Lambert R 27 4 5 5.11 21 20 74.0 74 42 14 35 74 5.22
Andrew Perez L 24 2 1 3.97 32 0 45.3 44 20 6 13 44 3.95
Kaleb Roper R 26 5 5 5.16 20 16 66.3 67 38 11 34 62 5.19
Bennett Sousa L 27 4 4 4.31 43 0 54.3 52 26 8 18 54 4.27
Will Kincanon R 26 2 2 4.20 32 0 40.7 37 19 3 25 40 4.16
Matt Foster R 27 3 3 4.34 50 0 58.0 54 28 10 22 61 4.56
Ryan Tepera R 34 2 1 4.35 56 0 49.7 42 24 8 21 58 4.39
Kevin McCarthy R 30 2 2 4.47 45 1 54.3 58 27 8 16 36 4.76
Carl Edwards Jr. R 30 2 2 4.40 35 0 30.7 26 15 4 16 35 4.26
Jose Ruiz R 27 2 2 4.58 56 0 59.0 55 30 9 28 60 4.65
Brian Glowicki R 27 2 2 4.60 33 0 45.0 43 23 7 19 46 4.62
Tyler Johnson R 26 2 2 4.68 34 0 42.3 40 22 6 23 42 4.88
Taylor Varnell L 27 5 6 5.62 19 17 73.7 79 46 14 35 59 5.68
Jonathan Stiever R 25 5 7 5.64 20 19 91.0 100 57 22 26 82 5.54
Davis Martin R 25 5 7 5.66 24 24 95.3 107 60 18 41 74 5.56
Peter Tago R 29 2 2 5.00 31 1 45.0 43 25 7 25 47 4.91
Declan Cronin R 24 4 4 4.86 37 0 46.3 48 25 4 26 30 4.82
Ryan Burr R 28 3 3 4.99 45 1 48.7 47 27 7 28 44 5.09
John Parke L 27 5 7 5.74 24 23 111.3 132 71 21 40 62 5.78
J.B. Olson R 27 3 3 5.00 31 0 45.0 52 25 7 11 26 4.91
Zach Muckenhirn L 27 2 3 5.13 38 0 47.3 46 27 7 28 44 5.21
Caleb Freeman R 24 2 3 5.27 41 0 42.7 43 25 8 22 40 5.43
Hunter Schryver L 27 1 2 5.29 41 0 51.0 53 30 9 27 46 5.43
Anderson Severino L 27 2 3 5.85 38 0 40.0 40 26 7 33 38 6.26
Luis Ledo R 27 2 3 5.90 35 0 39.7 40 26 7 29 38 5.90
Kodi Medeiros L 26 3 5 6.08 28 10 74.0 77 50 14 55 69 6.17
Alec Hansen R 27 2 3 6.43 33 0 35.0 29 25 5 48 44 6.81
Blake Battenfield R 27 5 9 6.36 23 21 103.3 129 73 27 32 62 6.48
Ofreidy Gómez R 26 5 8 6.37 28 15 89.0 98 63 20 57 71 6.60
Jake Elliott R 27 2 4 6.71 31 1 53.7 64 40 14 26 38 6.78

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Lucas Giolito 11.2 2.8 1.2 7.8% 30.7% .275 131 76 4.1 Jake Peavy
Dylan Cease 11.3 4.2 1.1 10.9% 29.3% .298 113 88 3.0 Bobby Witt
Lance Lynn 9.5 3.0 1.4 7.9% 25.1% .289 111 90 2.6 Todd Stottlemyre
Carlos Rodon 11.2 3.5 1.4 9.1% 29.6% .287 113 88 2.0 Larry McWilliams
Dallas Keuchel 6.4 3.0 1.3 7.8% 16.5% .291 99 101 1.8 Geoff Zahn
Liam Hendriks 13.3 2.1 1.3 6.0% 37.5% .288 156 64 1.6 Trevor Hoffman
Michael Kopech 12.1 4.2 1.2 11.0% 31.4% .297 117 85 1.4 Jack Meyer
Reynaldo Lopez 8.4 3.4 1.6 8.7% 21.7% .282 93 108 1.1 Jason Johnson
Aaron Bummer 10.9 4.0 0.6 10.7% 28.7% .291 142 71 1.1 Tug McGraw
Johan Dominguez 7.1 2.9 1.4 7.3% 18.1% .297 92 109 0.9 Elizardo Ramirez
Tanner Banks 6.5 2.2 1.4 5.6% 16.7% .296 94 106 0.8 Mike Jeffcoat
Garrett Crochet 11.4 4.0 0.9 10.5% 30.1% .293 134 75 0.8 Al Hrabosky
Jason Bilous 8.5 3.8 1.6 9.6% 21.3% .298 89 113 0.6 Randy Niemann
Kyle Kubat 6.6 2.2 1.4 5.7% 16.9% .299 92 109 0.6 Mark Hendrickson
Craig Kimbrel 14.1 4.7 1.5 12.3% 36.9% .272 117 85 0.6 Jeff Nelson
Kade McClure 7.2 3.0 1.6 7.6% 18.2% .301 87 115 0.6 Chien-Ming Wang
Jimmy Cordero 7.8 4.3 0.7 10.8% 19.5% .295 113 88 0.6 Sean Green
Emilio Vargas 8.0 3.2 1.8 8.1% 20.3% .292 86 116 0.5 Roy Smith
Jace Fry 11.0 5.2 0.9 13.2% 27.9% .295 111 90 0.4 Hector Mercado
Jimmy Lambert 9.0 4.3 1.7 10.6% 22.4% .296 86 116 0.4 Tom Newell
Andrew Perez 8.7 2.6 1.2 6.8% 22.9% .299 111 90 0.4 Dana Allison
Kaleb Roper 8.4 4.6 1.5 11.4% 20.7% .298 85 117 0.3 Jaret Wright
Bennett Sousa 8.9 3.0 1.3 7.8% 23.3% .295 102 98 0.2 Danny Boone
Will Kincanon 8.9 5.5 0.7 13.7% 21.9% .301 105 96 0.2 Gabe Dehoyos
Matt Foster 9.5 3.4 1.6 8.9% 24.6% .288 101 99 0.2 Joe Beckwith
Ryan Tepera 10.5 3.8 1.4 9.9% 27.4% .279 101 99 0.2 Jose DeLeon
Kevin McCarthy 6.0 2.7 1.3 6.8% 15.3% .289 98 102 0.2 John Boozer
Carl Edwards Jr. 10.3 4.7 1.2 12.0% 26.3% .286 100 100 0.1 Calvin Jones
Jose Ruiz 9.2 4.3 1.4 10.9% 23.3% .289 96 104 0.1 Jay Robertson
Brian Glowicki 9.2 3.8 1.4 9.6% 23.4% .295 96 105 0.0 Edwin Nunez
Tyler Johnson 8.9 4.9 1.3 12.1% 22.1% .293 94 106 0.0 Gabe Dehoyos
Taylor Varnell 7.2 4.3 1.7 10.5% 17.7% .294 78 128 0.0 Sean Henn
Jonathan Stiever 8.1 2.6 2.2 6.5% 20.6% .297 78 128 0.0 Mark DiFelice
Davis Martin 7.0 3.9 1.7 9.5% 17.1% .303 78 129 0.0 Yoann Torrealba
Peter Tago 9.4 5.0 1.4 12.4% 23.3% .298 88 114 -0.1 Roberto Giron
Declan Cronin 5.8 5.1 0.8 12.3% 14.2% .295 91 110 -0.1 Bob Miller
Ryan Burr 8.1 5.2 1.3 12.7% 20.0% .288 88 113 -0.1 Marc Pisciotta
John Parke 5.0 3.2 1.7 7.9% 12.3% .297 77 130 -0.1 Dave Otto
J.B. Olson 5.2 2.2 1.4 5.6% 13.3% .300 88 114 -0.2 Tim McNab
Zach Muckenhirn 8.4 5.3 1.3 13.0% 20.4% .291 86 117 -0.2 Kevin Tolar
Caleb Freeman 8.4 4.6 1.7 11.5% 20.8% .292 83 120 -0.3 Mike Madden
Hunter Schryver 8.1 4.8 1.6 11.6% 19.8% .299 83 120 -0.4 Geoff Jones
Anderson Severino 8.6 7.4 1.6 17.1% 19.7% .295 75 133 -0.5 Bobby Sprowl
Luis Ledo 8.6 6.6 1.6 15.5% 20.3% .297 75 134 -0.5 Mike Schultz
Kodi Medeiros 8.4 6.7 1.7 15.6% 19.5% .299 72 138 -0.6 Roger Samuels
Alec Hansen 11.3 12.3 1.3 26.4% 24.2% .289 68 146 -0.7 Archie Corbin
Blake Battenfield 5.4 2.8 2.4 6.8% 13.2% .298 69 145 -0.8 Josh Towers
Ofreidy Gómez 7.2 5.8 2.0 13.6% 16.9% .292 69 145 -0.8 Nick Skuse
Jake Elliott 6.4 4.4 2.3 10.4% 15.2% .296 66 152 -1.1 Steven Rowe

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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hyraxwithaflamethrower
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hyraxwithaflamethrower

Good heavens, these are pessimistic. Is there an article anywhere that shows the predictions vs actuals, even if it’s just by team? Seems these projections are never bullish on anybody.

kylerkelton
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kylerkelton

I think projections by nature are going to appear conservative. But there are examples in the past of ZiPS being surprisingly bullish on players. Shane Bieber is one that comes to mind.

Smiling Politely
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Smiling Politely

ZiPS has also been quite high on Gavin Lux (excuse me while I talk myself into a “there’s still time!” delusion)

sadtrombone
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Member
sadtrombone

In general, yes, the projections are not bullish on anyone. They’re median projections which take into account the bad outcomes as well as the good, plus the playing time estimator is often fairly conservative. This is a big part of why, for example, Robert is projected as a 3.2 win guy instead of a 4-win guy.

But the White Sox are a particularly tough team to project because they’ve got three very BABIP-dependent guys (Robert, Moncada, Anderson). Anderson, in particular, is very difficult to predict because he almost never walks and he relies very heavily on spraying the ball to unexpected places, which means he’s on a knife’s edge.

Of those three, I think the one I’d take the over on is Moncada. He showed huge strides this past year in terms of his peripherals, and so while I get why ZiPs is pessimistic on him I think the 2:1 K:BB ratio is potentially here to stay. He also didn’t outperform any his xwOBA last year, and that’s strong enough that even if the power doesn’t come back (it probably won’t) I think another 4-win season is likely.

plootoisaplanet
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plootoisaplanet

i’d personally disagree on taking the over on moncada. his defense is gonna be the key to his game and if he outperforms ZiPs hitting-wise it’s an added bonus. as someone who watches basically every sox game, i genuinely think that TA is just an anomaly considering babip. for the past 3 years he’s had above-average babip and his defense has steadily improved up to the point where he was an all-star fill-in in 2021. i think he’s shown that his “knife’s edge” hitting style is just how he plays and while that fall-off is a possibility, he’s been too consistent for me to doubt that it’s gonna happen.

LightenUpFG
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Member

Agreed. Moncada was maddening last year and he hasn’t shown very much apart from his great 2019. Taking the over looks like a leap of faith, but he doesn’t look like the next Jose Abreu breakout waiting to happen. Maybe he’ll just suck a little less next year.

montreal
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montreal

Agreed. I just don’t understand how Tim Anderson can keep hitting for a very good average. He rarely walks, strikes out far too often…..and hits .300 Nobody can be that lucky year after year….

sadtrombone
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sadtrombone

I have been waiting for him to regress for a while, but someone suggested to me that his batted ball distribution is really tough to counter with positioning fielders differently.

This is heartening if you think that’s a skill, and not so much if you think he’s been incredibly lucky. ZiPs thinks it is some mixture of both, which seems reasonable to me. Running a .350 BABIP like ZiPs projects is plenty high and would still make him a useful offensive player. The caveat is that he could overshoot or undershoot that by quite a bit and since he doesn’t walk, it’ll make his value radically different.

Pirates Hurdles
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Pirates Hurdles

Id suggest reading Dan’s intro last week. These are 50th percentile projections. Players will both exceed and underperform these numbers by normal variance. It is not a prediction. For example, last year ZiPS projected 3 players to bat over .300, that does not mean that ZiPS is predicting only 3 players will bat over .300 in the season.

dl80
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Member
dl80

I don’t know that Robert can keep up the ridiculous BABIPs, so unless he gets to a bit more power, I don’t think his offensive projection is way off target.

The defense, though. He’s been much better by both OAA and DRS than the UZR- based projection.

burning_phoneix
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burning_phoneix

BABIP is fake. Tim Anderson has proved that already.

Dmjn53
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Dmjn53

out·li·er
/ˈoutˌlīər/

a data point on a graph or in a set of results that is very much bigger or smaller than the next nearest data point.

montreal
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montreal

BABIT is real. Tim Anderson has proved he is lucky.

cowdisciple
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cowdisciple

Article tagline: “The White Sox are the heavy favorite in the AL Central.” Doesn’t seem all that pessimistic.