2022 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs.
Batters
Losing Javier Báez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant hurt the offense, but the drop-off may not be all that significant. The first two weren’t amazing offensively, simply solid. And even amid some of the surprising breakouts from their Quadruple-A players, the Cubs got little out of second base and right field; Joc Pederson may have had some 2021 heroics, but they happened in Joctober, not Jocpril or Jocly.
Nico Hoerner will hopefully suffer fewer injuries in 2022, and landing Nick Madrigal for Craig Kimbrel was a nice bit of GMcraft. Over at third, ZiPS gives Patrick Wisdom the best odds of repeating his 2021 of any member of the gang of journeyman breakouts the Cubs assembled. I’m happy for Frank Schwindel, and he totally deserved my third-place Rookie of the Year vote (one of two, with the other cast by Grant Brisbee), but he was always going to be hard-pressed to come anywhere near his 2021 again. Even this projection represents a mighty improvement from the 85 OPS+ he was projected for coming into the 2021 season. After all, the last time we saw Schwindel, he was hitting a pedestrian .271/.315/.458 combined at Double- and Triple-A in 2019.
The outfield won’t be terribly impressive, but at least Jason Heyward is unlikely to struggle anywhere near as much as he did last season. Ian Happ likely has some upside remaining; he’s no longer young, but his 2019 and ’20 performances were much more impressive.
I think the major problem with the Cubs offense isn’t that it has massive holes everywhere, but simply that the ceiling appears to be relatively low. Obviously, the Cubs aren’t going all-in on contention in 2022, even though contention is a possibility, but there just aren’t that many sources of upside here. Team Nick is the most interesting part of the lineup, but neither likely has MVP-type potential. The rest of the lineup’s mulligan stew of over-performing minor league veterans is a fun story, but few are poised to be anything more than a stopgap for a year or three. I don’t think it likely the Cubs are a bottom three offense in the National League, but it’s hard to see them getting any higher than sixth or seventh overall in a good season.
Pitchers
The rotation was a flaming dumpster full of miniature flaming dumpsters, each with a little stack of mini tires on fire inside. I discussed it when I wrote about the Marcus Stroman signing, but the 2021 rotation was basically the worst Cubs rotation of the last half-century.
The good news, of course, is that it’s relatively easy to improve from such an awful position. It’s akin to having the goal of simply being less snarky than I am; it’s barely an inconvenience. Kyle Hendricks is likely to have at least some sort of bounce-back season, even ticking up a couple of notches from his projection in my NL Central Elegy once all the final data was processed and ready to go in ZiPS. I think Stroman was one of the best values so far in our abbreviated Hot Stove League, while Wade Miley was legitimately effective with the Reds and a coup as a one-year, $10 million waiver claim. I’m certainly a lot happier with this top three than I was before last year.
Like Steamer, ZiPS is big on Caleb Kilian, seeing him as someone who is likely to be a contributor very quickly. Adbert Alzolay allowed too many homers, but ZiPS saw him as one of the game’s unluckiest pitchers in terms of round-trippers, giving up 25 versus only 18 zHR. In that department, he was behind only Andrew Heaney at +9. His walk rate has improved, something that ZiPS sees as sustainable. Kilian’s unlikely to be rushed into the team’s 2022 plans, but Alzolay gets a projection right around league-average, putting the Cubs ahead of the game for their fourth starter.
The bullpen isn’t impressive, but it’s roughly average. The Cubs are unlikely to spend all the money they’re willing to this offseason, so if they over-perform next year, I think there’s a good chance that they add some arms fairly quickly in-season rather than waiting until the end of July. The team’s not quite good enough where you want to be splashing cash on relievers, but they ought to be prepared.
It seems rather bog-standard to be down on the Cubs, but I honestly think this is a mid-to-high-70s win team as constructed. That’s a team that can be competitive in the NL Central in a good year, and I don’t think the team’s necessarily done making improvements. We’ll just have to wait a while to see!
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Willson Contreras | R | 30 | C | 460 | 396 | 58 | 95 | 18 | 1 | 20 | 62 | 47 | 123 | 4 | 3 |
Patrick Wisdom | R | 30 | 3B | 431 | 387 | 59 | 87 | 15 | 0 | 29 | 72 | 38 | 157 | 6 | 2 |
Ian Happ | B | 27 | LF | 535 | 461 | 68 | 110 | 21 | 2 | 25 | 72 | 68 | 161 | 9 | 3 |
Nick Madrigal | R | 25 | 2B | 417 | 386 | 46 | 114 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 20 | 26 | 11 | 8 |
Rafael Ortega | L | 31 | CF | 464 | 420 | 55 | 105 | 20 | 3 | 14 | 50 | 41 | 95 | 12 | 6 |
Nico Hoerner | R | 25 | 2B | 323 | 292 | 35 | 81 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 31 | 24 | 47 | 7 | 4 |
Michael Hermosillo | R | 27 | CF | 285 | 248 | 39 | 57 | 10 | 2 | 12 | 38 | 23 | 86 | 7 | 3 |
Frank Schwindel | R | 30 | 1B | 480 | 449 | 60 | 120 | 25 | 1 | 22 | 72 | 23 | 82 | 2 | 1 |
Yan Gomes | R | 34 | C | 352 | 325 | 41 | 80 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 45 | 20 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Abiatal Avelino | R | 27 | SS | 484 | 448 | 60 | 113 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 46 | 28 | 86 | 14 | 4 |
Miguel Amaya | R | 23 | C | 268 | 230 | 35 | 50 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 30 | 56 | 2 | 0 |
Jason Heyward | L | 32 | RF | 433 | 387 | 51 | 94 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 41 | 83 | 6 | 1 |
Matt Duffy | R | 31 | 3B | 345 | 308 | 39 | 85 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 29 | 28 | 62 | 6 | 2 |
Brennen Davis | R | 22 | CF | 437 | 388 | 50 | 87 | 20 | 0 | 17 | 50 | 36 | 131 | 6 | 3 |
Sergio Alcántara | B | 25 | SS | 385 | 338 | 42 | 75 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 41 | 99 | 6 | 2 |
Chase Strumpf | R | 24 | 3B | 328 | 288 | 43 | 58 | 16 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 31 | 92 | 3 | 0 |
P.J. Higgins | R | 29 | C | 355 | 318 | 36 | 74 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 31 | 29 | 76 | 3 | 2 |
Tony Wolters | L | 30 | C | 316 | 277 | 35 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 27 | 69 | 1 | 2 |
David Bote | R | 29 | 2B | 359 | 316 | 40 | 72 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 34 | 86 | 2 | 2 |
Clint Frazier | R | 27 | LF | 378 | 333 | 43 | 77 | 20 | 1 | 13 | 41 | 38 | 108 | 4 | 2 |
Bryce Windham | L | 25 | 2B | 211 | 192 | 29 | 48 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 17 | 32 | 2 | 1 |
Ian Miller | L | 30 | CF | 456 | 416 | 53 | 103 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 36 | 30 | 84 | 19 | 4 |
Narciso Crook | R | 26 | RF | 360 | 325 | 41 | 72 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 27 | 108 | 7 | 3 |
Andrew Romine | B | 36 | SS | 312 | 291 | 35 | 71 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 65 | 5 | 4 |
Robinson Chirinos | R | 38 | C | 227 | 196 | 23 | 41 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 22 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
Alfonso Rivas | L | 25 | 1B | 415 | 369 | 51 | 90 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 34 | 39 | 103 | 1 | 2 |
Nick Martini | L | 32 | RF | 350 | 306 | 45 | 76 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 36 | 77 | 1 | 1 |
Greg Deichmann | L | 27 | RF | 388 | 347 | 45 | 73 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 33 | 38 | 116 | 8 | 3 |
Harold Ramirez | R | 27 | LF | 475 | 447 | 51 | 122 | 26 | 2 | 11 | 55 | 19 | 85 | 4 | 2 |
Trayce Thompson | R | 31 | CF | 381 | 343 | 44 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 17 | 51 | 32 | 133 | 5 | 2 |
Nelson Velazquez | R | 23 | RF | 445 | 419 | 52 | 99 | 18 | 2 | 17 | 62 | 20 | 134 | 10 | 2 |
Luis Vazquez | R | 22 | SS | 280 | 261 | 29 | 58 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 63 | 5 | 2 |
Austin Romine | R | 33 | C | 177 | 169 | 17 | 41 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 7 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
Eric Sogard | L | 36 | 2B | 311 | 284 | 31 | 69 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 49 | 5 | 1 |
Nelson Maldonado | R | 25 | 1B | 291 | 271 | 35 | 71 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 16 | 56 | 1 | 0 |
Tyler Ladendorf | R | 34 | 3B | 184 | 170 | 20 | 36 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 9 | 47 | 1 | 0 |
Tyler Payne | R | 29 | C | 277 | 259 | 28 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 13 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
Yonathan Perlaza | B | 23 | RF | 420 | 389 | 53 | 95 | 18 | 1 | 14 | 55 | 23 | 101 | 4 | 2 |
Erick Castillo | R | 29 | C | 186 | 165 | 20 | 36 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Trent Giambrone | R | 28 | 2B | 370 | 335 | 39 | 67 | 13 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 30 | 111 | 10 | 4 |
Jose Lobaton | B | 37 | C | 222 | 200 | 23 | 38 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 20 | 70 | 0 | 0 |
Cam Balego | R | 27 | 1B | 354 | 310 | 37 | 63 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 30 | 32 | 83 | 1 | 3 |
Levi Jordan | R | 26 | 3B | 281 | 255 | 31 | 53 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 17 | 78 | 2 | 2 |
Jared Young | L | 26 | 1B | 405 | 373 | 43 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 24 | 92 | 4 | 1 |
Johneshwy Fargas | R | 27 | CF | 341 | 314 | 31 | 67 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 18 | 88 | 25 | 12 |
Taylor Gushue | B | 28 | C | 285 | 261 | 31 | 55 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 29 | 19 | 85 | 0 | 0 |
D.J. Artis | L | 25 | LF | 268 | 237 | 28 | 49 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 20 | 24 | 85 | 11 | 3 |
Bryce Ball | L | 23 | 1B | 449 | 393 | 54 | 76 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 51 | 50 | 125 | 0 | 0 |
Bradlee Beesley | R | 24 | LF | 228 | 212 | 23 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 11 | 72 | 9 | 1 |
Tim Susnara | L | 26 | C | 218 | 195 | 17 | 32 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 83 | 1 | 0 |
Josue Huma | B | 22 | 2B | 368 | 341 | 44 | 69 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 22 | 82 | 5 | 1 |
Darius Hill | L | 24 | LF | 329 | 308 | 41 | 80 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 17 | 62 | 3 | 3 |
Reivaj Garcia | B | 20 | 2B | 186 | 180 | 16 | 37 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 58 | 2 | 0 |
Tyler Durna | L | 25 | 1B | 425 | 388 | 51 | 86 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 30 | 80 | 1 | 3 |
Delvin Zinn | R | 25 | SS | 426 | 394 | 39 | 80 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 21 | 99 | 23 | 8 |
Andy Weber | L | 24 | SS | 417 | 382 | 35 | 75 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 26 | 123 | 2 | 0 |
Jake Slaughter | R | 25 | 3B | 388 | 362 | 41 | 75 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 15 | 109 | 8 | 3 |
Christopher Morel | R | 23 | CF | 459 | 418 | 50 | 86 | 15 | 3 | 15 | 54 | 31 | 136 | 12 | 3 |
Alexander Canario | R | 22 | CF | 461 | 431 | 42 | 83 | 13 | 1 | 19 | 48 | 24 | 140 | 11 | 4 |
Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | RC/27 | Def | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Willson Contreras | .240 | .339 | .442 | 106 | .202 | .296 | 5.3 | 0 | 2.6 | Frankie Hayes |
Patrick Wisdom | .225 | .300 | .488 | 105 | .264 | .289 | 5.2 | 1 | 2.0 | Brandon Larson |
Ian Happ | .239 | .341 | .456 | 110 | .217 | .309 | 5.6 | -4 | 1.8 | Bob Skube |
Nick Madrigal | .295 | .339 | .386 | 93 | .091 | .311 | 4.9 | 5 | 1.7 | Placido Polanco |
Rafael Ortega | .250 | .320 | .412 | 93 | .162 | .293 | 4.7 | 2 | 1.6 | Del Unser |
Nico Hoerner | .277 | .341 | .370 | 90 | .092 | .322 | 4.7 | 5 | 1.3 | Edgardo Alfonzo |
Michael Hermosillo | .230 | .320 | .431 | 98 | .202 | .300 | 4.9 | 1 | 1.2 | Lou Collier |
Frank Schwindel | .267 | .305 | .474 | 103 | .207 | .284 | 5.3 | 0 | 1.2 | Ron Coomer |
Yan Gomes | .246 | .298 | .409 | 86 | .163 | .292 | 4.4 | 1 | 1.2 | Mike Heath |
Abiatal Avelino | .252 | .299 | .362 | 75 | .109 | .297 | 4.1 | 3 | 1.1 | Eddy Garabito |
Miguel Amaya | .217 | .321 | .370 | 84 | .152 | .253 | 4.2 | 2 | 1.1 | Pete Gonzalez |
Jason Heyward | .243 | .319 | .393 | 88 | .150 | .281 | 4.6 | 4 | 1.0 | Bubba Carpenter |
Matt Duffy | .276 | .346 | .373 | 92 | .097 | .332 | 4.9 | -2 | 1.0 | Matt Macri |
Brennen Davis | .224 | .307 | .407 | 88 | .183 | .292 | 4.4 | -4 | 0.8 | Carmelo Martinez |
Sergio Alcántara | .222 | .308 | .317 | 67 | .095 | .296 | 3.4 | 5 | 0.8 | Doug Baker |
Chase Strumpf | .201 | .287 | .330 | 64 | .128 | .270 | 3.3 | 6 | 0.6 | Sean Walsh |
P.J. Higgins | .233 | .299 | .333 | 69 | .101 | .288 | 3.5 | 1 | 0.4 | Brad Ausmus |
Tony Wolters | .220 | .303 | .307 | 64 | .087 | .279 | 3.1 | 3 | 0.4 | Doug Newstrom |
David Bote | .228 | .310 | .386 | 84 | .158 | .279 | 4.1 | -4 | 0.4 | Mike Moriarty |
Clint Frazier | .231 | .317 | .414 | 93 | .183 | .302 | 4.6 | -4 | 0.3 | Chris Jelic |
Bryce Windham | .250 | .310 | .333 | 72 | .083 | .291 | 3.7 | 2 | 0.3 | Liu Rodriguez |
Ian Miller | .248 | .304 | .341 | 72 | .094 | .300 | 4.0 | -1 | 0.3 | Cory Sullivan |
Narciso Crook | .222 | .292 | .388 | 79 | .166 | .296 | 4.0 | 2 | 0.2 | Sil Campusano |
Andrew Romine | .244 | .289 | .316 | 62 | .072 | .305 | 3.2 | 3 | 0.2 | Jose Vizcaino |
Robinson Chirinos | .209 | .305 | .372 | 80 | .163 | .291 | 3.9 | -4 | 0.2 | Jeff Reed |
Alfonso Rivas | .244 | .323 | .341 | 78 | .098 | .323 | 3.9 | 3 | 0.2 | Dale Holman |
Nick Martini | .248 | .337 | .363 | 87 | .114 | .311 | 4.4 | -3 | 0.2 | Gene Hermanski |
Greg Deichmann | .210 | .289 | .331 | 65 | .121 | .291 | 3.3 | 7 | 0.1 | Wynter Phoenix |
Harold Ramirez | .273 | .312 | .414 | 91 | .141 | .316 | 4.8 | -6 | 0.1 | Robert Perez |
Trayce Thompson | .198 | .274 | .388 | 74 | .190 | .264 | 3.6 | -2 | 0.1 | Nick Gorneault |
Nelson Velazquez | .236 | .277 | .411 | 80 | .174 | .306 | 4.2 | 0 | 0.1 | Victor Diaz |
Luis Vazquez | .222 | .272 | .299 | 52 | .077 | .278 | 2.9 | 4 | 0.1 | Andres Blanco |
Austin Romine | .243 | .271 | .361 | 67 | .118 | .316 | 3.5 | -1 | 0.0 | Robert Machado |
Eric Sogard | .243 | .297 | .335 | 68 | .092 | .281 | 3.7 | 0 | 0.0 | Joe Stripp |
Nelson Maldonado | .262 | .307 | .384 | 83 | .122 | .314 | 4.3 | -1 | 0.0 | Phil Clark |
Tyler Ladendorf | .212 | .257 | .341 | 58 | .129 | .263 | 3.1 | 3 | 0.0 | Jason Wood |
Tyler Payne | .205 | .246 | .317 | 49 | .112 | .267 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.3 | Jason Brown |
Yonathan Perlaza | .244 | .288 | .404 | 82 | .159 | .296 | 4.1 | -4 | -0.3 | Dave Engle |
Erick Castillo | .218 | .288 | .279 | 53 | .061 | .260 | 2.8 | -2 | -0.4 | Hector Ortiz |
Trent Giambrone | .200 | .269 | .334 | 60 | .134 | .266 | 3.1 | 0 | -0.4 | Keith Johns |
Jose Lobaton | .190 | .266 | .330 | 58 | .140 | .258 | 2.9 | -3 | -0.4 | Gregg Zaun |
Cam Balego | .203 | .295 | .326 | 66 | .123 | .251 | 3.1 | 3 | -0.4 | Alex Miranda |
Levi Jordan | .208 | .266 | .310 | 53 | .102 | .279 | 2.7 | 1 | -0.5 | Roger Burnett |
Jared Young | .231 | .282 | .346 | 66 | .115 | .286 | 3.5 | 2 | -0.6 | Micah Hoffpauir |
Johneshwy Fargas | .213 | .268 | .315 | 55 | .102 | .277 | 2.9 | 0 | -0.6 | Jose Soriano |
Taylor Gushue | .211 | .264 | .337 | 59 | .126 | .284 | 3.0 | -5 | -0.6 | Craig Tatum |
D.J. Artis | .207 | .292 | .333 | 67 | .127 | .285 | 3.5 | -4 | -0.7 | Gary Johnson |
Bryce Ball | .193 | .284 | .366 | 72 | .173 | .238 | 3.5 | -2 | -0.7 | Jim Orsag |
Bradlee Beesley | .184 | .233 | .330 | 48 | .146 | .241 | 2.9 | 0 | -0.8 | Saul Bustos |
Tim Susnara | .164 | .240 | .246 | 30 | .082 | .266 | 2.0 | -1 | -0.9 | Jerrey Thurston |
Josue Huma | .202 | .256 | .284 | 44 | .082 | .252 | 2.6 | 2 | -0.9 | Gary Miller-Jones |
Darius Hill | .260 | .299 | .347 | 72 | .088 | .308 | 3.7 | -5 | -0.9 | Andre Ethier |
Reivaj Garcia | .206 | .231 | .267 | 32 | .061 | .292 | 2.2 | -1 | -0.9 | Bobby Falls |
Tyler Durna | .222 | .283 | .307 | 58 | .085 | .267 | 2.9 | 4 | -1.0 | Randy Jorgensen |
Delvin Zinn | .203 | .249 | .264 | 37 | .061 | .261 | 2.4 | 3 | -1.0 | Ruben Castillo |
Andy Weber | .196 | .254 | .277 | 42 | .081 | .284 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.1 | Glenn DiSarcina |
Jake Slaughter | .207 | .253 | .279 | 42 | .072 | .285 | 2.5 | 2 | -1.1 | Wade Robinson |
Christopher Morel | .206 | .262 | .364 | 64 | .158 | .266 | 3.4 | -10 | -1.2 | Chris Colton |
Alexander Canario | .193 | .235 | .360 | 55 | .167 | .235 | 2.9 | -10 | -1.8 | Mike Mallory |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marcus Stroman | R | 31 | 13 | 9 | 3.60 | 31 | 31 | 170.0 | 163 | 68 | 19 | 47 | 148 | 3.79 |
Wade Miley | L | 35 | 10 | 7 | 3.97 | 26 | 26 | 143.0 | 143 | 63 | 16 | 47 | 107 | 4.21 |
Kyle Hendricks | R | 32 | 10 | 9 | 4.20 | 28 | 28 | 158.7 | 166 | 74 | 24 | 33 | 121 | 4.42 |
Adbert Alzolay | R | 27 | 9 | 8 | 4.45 | 28 | 21 | 115.3 | 108 | 57 | 19 | 40 | 124 | 4.34 |
Caleb Kilian | R | 25 | 6 | 4 | 4.06 | 18 | 18 | 82.0 | 83 | 37 | 11 | 20 | 66 | 4.23 |
Zach Davies | R | 29 | 8 | 9 | 4.92 | 29 | 29 | 139.0 | 144 | 76 | 22 | 59 | 103 | 5.12 |
Codi Heuer | R | 25 | 6 | 4 | 3.71 | 62 | 0 | 68.0 | 64 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 64 | 3.65 |
Justin Steele | L | 26 | 5 | 5 | 4.58 | 26 | 14 | 74.7 | 71 | 38 | 11 | 36 | 75 | 4.73 |
Cory Abbott | R | 26 | 6 | 7 | 5.12 | 26 | 22 | 121.3 | 121 | 69 | 22 | 59 | 122 | 5.13 |
Alec Mills | R | 30 | 7 | 8 | 5.11 | 31 | 22 | 125.0 | 137 | 71 | 24 | 37 | 95 | 5.24 |
Rowan Wick | R | 29 | 2 | 1 | 3.74 | 42 | 0 | 43.3 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 22 | 51 | 3.99 |
Ethan Roberts | R | 24 | 4 | 3 | 3.95 | 41 | 0 | 54.7 | 53 | 24 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 3.84 |
Jack Patterson | L | 26 | 4 | 4 | 4.81 | 23 | 9 | 63.7 | 63 | 34 | 8 | 38 | 57 | 5.00 |
Stephen Gonsalves | L | 27 | 5 | 5 | 5.06 | 24 | 12 | 80.0 | 74 | 45 | 13 | 50 | 87 | 5.14 |
Kohl Stewart | R | 27 | 5 | 6 | 5.16 | 20 | 15 | 82.0 | 89 | 47 | 12 | 33 | 61 | 4.98 |
Keegan Thompson | R | 27 | 4 | 4 | 4.97 | 32 | 12 | 70.7 | 70 | 39 | 13 | 32 | 69 | 5.10 |
Michael Rucker | R | 28 | 2 | 2 | 4.68 | 36 | 4 | 77.0 | 78 | 40 | 13 | 27 | 77 | 4.58 |
Adrian Sampson | R | 30 | 5 | 7 | 5.24 | 27 | 17 | 111.7 | 128 | 65 | 22 | 33 | 78 | 5.45 |
Ben Leeper | R | 25 | 4 | 3 | 3.86 | 28 | 0 | 32.7 | 29 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 38 | 3.82 |
Matt Swarmer | R | 28 | 6 | 7 | 5.34 | 24 | 21 | 113.0 | 124 | 67 | 24 | 35 | 95 | 5.35 |
Adam Morgan | L | 32 | 2 | 2 | 4.06 | 47 | 0 | 37.7 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 15 | 42 | 4.03 |
Brailyn Márquez | L | 23 | 3 | 3 | 4.89 | 8 | 8 | 35.0 | 32 | 19 | 4 | 23 | 36 | 4.75 |
Conner Menez | L | 27 | 4 | 5 | 5.14 | 33 | 14 | 89.3 | 87 | 51 | 17 | 47 | 91 | 5.33 |
Anderson Espinoza | R | 24 | 2 | 2 | 5.19 | 21 | 21 | 59.0 | 62 | 34 | 9 | 29 | 51 | 5.11 |
Joe Biagini | R | 32 | 4 | 5 | 5.11 | 31 | 13 | 81.0 | 89 | 46 | 13 | 34 | 64 | 5.09 |
Manuel Rodriguez | R | 25 | 4 | 4 | 4.50 | 39 | 2 | 46.0 | 45 | 23 | 6 | 22 | 40 | 4.77 |
Dillon Maples | R | 30 | 3 | 3 | 4.34 | 46 | 1 | 47.7 | 35 | 23 | 5 | 40 | 63 | 4.86 |
Tommy Nance | R | 31 | 2 | 2 | 4.24 | 34 | 0 | 40.3 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 4.39 |
Brendon Little | L | 25 | 1 | 1 | 4.87 | 23 | 3 | 44.3 | 44 | 24 | 6 | 24 | 40 | 4.89 |
Marcus Walden | R | 33 | 5 | 5 | 4.70 | 43 | 2 | 59.3 | 59 | 31 | 8 | 25 | 49 | 4.70 |
Brandon Hughes | L | 26 | 2 | 2 | 4.42 | 26 | 0 | 38.7 | 37 | 19 | 5 | 17 | 38 | 4.45 |
Erich Uelmen | R | 26 | 5 | 6 | 5.34 | 27 | 13 | 87.7 | 95 | 52 | 13 | 43 | 65 | 5.27 |
Ryan Jensen | R | 24 | 4 | 5 | 5.48 | 20 | 20 | 70.7 | 75 | 43 | 12 | 33 | 56 | 5.37 |
Brad Wieck | L | 30 | 2 | 2 | 4.46 | 36 | 0 | 36.3 | 30 | 18 | 6 | 17 | 47 | 4.31 |
Luis Lugo | L | 28 | 6 | 8 | 5.48 | 23 | 18 | 88.7 | 94 | 54 | 15 | 46 | 75 | 5.41 |
Locke St. John | L | 29 | 3 | 3 | 4.95 | 38 | 4 | 56.3 | 56 | 31 | 10 | 25 | 56 | 4.99 |
Scott Kobos | L | 24 | 2 | 2 | 4.55 | 26 | 0 | 31.7 | 30 | 16 | 4 | 15 | 29 | 4.60 |
Scott Effross | R | 28 | 5 | 5 | 4.85 | 42 | 2 | 65.0 | 68 | 35 | 11 | 19 | 57 | 4.73 |
Javier Assad | R | 24 | 5 | 7 | 5.57 | 22 | 21 | 97.0 | 113 | 60 | 17 | 37 | 60 | 5.52 |
Pedro Strop | R | 37 | 3 | 3 | 4.68 | 38 | 0 | 32.7 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 31 | 4.71 |
Ben Holmes | L | 30 | 2 | 2 | 5.59 | 10 | 8 | 38.7 | 40 | 24 | 7 | 21 | 35 | 5.51 |
Ryan Kellogg | L | 28 | 3 | 3 | 5.37 | 22 | 7 | 65.3 | 76 | 39 | 10 | 23 | 39 | 5.22 |
Ryan Lawlor | L | 28 | 2 | 2 | 4.78 | 22 | 0 | 32.0 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 20 | 34 | 4.74 |
Jonathan Holder | R | 29 | 3 | 3 | 4.75 | 41 | 0 | 47.3 | 46 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 44 | 4.45 |
Jason Adam | R | 30 | 2 | 3 | 5.02 | 28 | 1 | 28.7 | 25 | 16 | 5 | 16 | 35 | 4.99 |
Cayne Ueckert | R | 26 | 1 | 1 | 4.97 | 25 | 0 | 25.3 | 25 | 14 | 3 | 15 | 22 | 4.88 |
Wyatt Short | L | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4.98 | 32 | 1 | 47.0 | 47 | 26 | 7 | 24 | 42 | 4.99 |
Dan Winkler | R | 32 | 2 | 2 | 4.87 | 48 | 0 | 40.7 | 36 | 22 | 6 | 24 | 44 | 5.07 |
Samuel Reyes | R | 26 | 4 | 5 | 5.11 | 33 | 2 | 56.3 | 60 | 32 | 7 | 30 | 42 | 5.06 |
Alexander Vizcaíno | R | 25 | 3 | 4 | 5.76 | 17 | 15 | 65.7 | 69 | 42 | 12 | 35 | 55 | 5.66 |
Blake Whitney | R | 26 | 2 | 2 | 5.25 | 26 | 2 | 48.0 | 49 | 28 | 8 | 23 | 44 | 5.14 |
Peyton Remy | R | 25 | 3 | 4 | 5.86 | 16 | 13 | 63.0 | 70 | 41 | 11 | 32 | 44 | 5.72 |
Eury Ramos | R | 24 | 1 | 2 | 5.49 | 31 | 1 | 39.3 | 42 | 24 | 7 | 20 | 30 | 5.72 |
Dakota Chalmers | R | 25 | 3 | 4 | 6.00 | 20 | 17 | 66.0 | 69 | 44 | 13 | 43 | 56 | 6.18 |
Dakota Mekkes | R | 27 | 2 | 3 | 5.44 | 35 | 1 | 44.7 | 46 | 27 | 8 | 25 | 40 | 5.53 |
Cam Sanders | R | 25 | 5 | 7 | 5.95 | 19 | 19 | 87.7 | 91 | 58 | 16 | 55 | 77 | 5.88 |
Joe Nahas | R | 22 | 5 | 7 | 5.84 | 24 | 11 | 81.7 | 94 | 53 | 17 | 34 | 57 | 5.92 |
Dauris Valdez | R | 26 | 1 | 1 | 5.66 | 31 | 0 | 35.0 | 35 | 22 | 6 | 24 | 34 | 5.69 |
Juan Gámez | R | 28 | 3 | 3 | 5.57 | 35 | 0 | 42.0 | 45 | 26 | 6 | 25 | 31 | 5.49 |
Burl Carraway | L | 23 | 2 | 4 | 6.55 | 34 | 0 | 34.3 | 33 | 25 | 5 | 36 | 35 | 6.35 |
Jackson McClelland | R | 27 | 1 | 2 | 6.62 | 30 | 0 | 35.3 | 39 | 26 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 6.55 |
Player | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% | BABIP | ERA+ | ERA- | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marcus Stroman | 7.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 6.6% | 20.8% | .291 | 121 | 83 | 3.5 | Andy Ashby |
Wade Miley | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 7.7% | 17.5% | .290 | 110 | 91 | 2.4 | Kenny Rogers |
Kyle Hendricks | 6.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 4.9% | 18.0% | .293 | 104 | 96 | 2.3 | Bob Tewksbury |
Adbert Alzolay | 9.7 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 8.1% | 25.3% | .294 | 98 | 102 | 1.3 | Tommy Greene |
Caleb Kilian | 7.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.7% | 19.0% | .293 | 107 | 93 | 1.3 | Jon Lieber |
Zach Davies | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 9.6% | 16.8% | .287 | 89 | 113 | 0.9 | Omar Olivares |
Codi Heuer | 8.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 7.3% | 22.4% | .297 | 118 | 85 | 0.8 | Manuel Corpas |
Justin Steele | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 10.9% | 22.7% | .294 | 95 | 105 | 0.7 | Brian Looney |
Cory Abbott | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 10.9% | 22.5% | .297 | 85 | 117 | 0.5 | Pete Fisher |
Alec Mills | 6.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 6.8% | 17.4% | .295 | 85 | 117 | 0.5 | Travis Driskill |
Rowan Wick | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 11.8% | 27.3% | .290 | 117 | 86 | 0.5 | Jim Kern |
Ethan Roberts | 8.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 7.7% | 21.9% | .301 | 110 | 91 | 0.4 | David Wilhelmi |
Jack Patterson | 8.1 | 5.4 | 1.1 | 13.1% | 19.6% | .299 | 91 | 110 | 0.4 | Bob Weiland |
Stephen Gonsalves | 9.8 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 13.8% | 24.0% | .292 | 86 | 116 | 0.3 | Brian Fuentes |
Kohl Stewart | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 9.0% | 16.6% | .301 | 85 | 118 | 0.3 | Eric Ireland |
Keegan Thompson | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 10.3% | 22.1% | .292 | 88 | 114 | 0.3 | Orlando Lind |
Michael Rucker | 9.0 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 8.1% | 23.0% | .304 | 93 | 107 | 0.3 | Jose Silva |
Adrian Sampson | 6.3 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 6.7% | 15.8% | .299 | 83 | 120 | 0.3 | Mike Harkey |
Ben Leeper | 10.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 9.3% | 27.1% | .301 | 113 | 88 | 0.3 | Si Johnson |
Matt Swarmer | 7.6 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 7.1% | 19.2% | .298 | 82 | 122 | 0.3 | Scott Atchison |
Adam Morgan | 10.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 9.3% | 26.1% | .289 | 107 | 93 | 0.3 | Alan Embree |
Brailyn Márquez | 9.3 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 14.4% | 22.5% | .295 | 89 | 112 | 0.2 | David West |
Conner Menez | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 11.8% | 22.8% | .290 | 85 | 118 | 0.2 | Chris Capuano |
Anderson Espinoza | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 10.8% | 19.0% | .303 | 84 | 119 | 0.2 | Ben Fritz |
Joe Biagini | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 9.3% | 17.6% | .305 | 85 | 117 | 0.2 | Ricky Bones |
Manuel Rodriguez | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 10.7% | 19.5% | .291 | 97 | 103 | 0.2 | Mike Hansen |
Dillon Maples | 11.9 | 7.6 | 0.9 | 18.0% | 28.4% | .280 | 100 | 100 | 0.2 | Dwayne Henry |
Tommy Nance | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 10.7% | 23.2% | .294 | 103 | 97 | 0.2 | Gregg Olson |
Brendon Little | 8.1 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 12.0% | 20.0% | .297 | 89 | 112 | 0.1 | Jeff Ridgway |
Marcus Walden | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 9.6% | 18.8% | .290 | 93 | 108 | 0.1 | Pete Walker |
Brandon Hughes | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 10.0% | 22.4% | .299 | 99 | 101 | 0.1 | Kyle Sadlowski |
Erich Uelmen | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 10.8% | 16.3% | .300 | 82 | 122 | 0.1 | Mark Calvert |
Ryan Jensen | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 10.3% | 17.6% | .294 | 80 | 126 | 0.1 | Joaquin Benoit |
Brad Wieck | 11.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 10.9% | 30.1% | .286 | 98 | 102 | 0.1 | Eddie Guardado |
Luis Lugo | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 11.4% | 18.5% | .299 | 80 | 126 | 0.0 | Randy Flores |
Locke St. John | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 10.0% | 22.5% | .297 | 88 | 114 | 0.0 | Jeff Fassero |
Scott Kobos | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 10.7% | 20.7% | .289 | 96 | 104 | 0.0 | Clay Rapada |
Scott Effross | 7.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 6.7% | 20.2% | .300 | 90 | 111 | 0.0 | Darren Hodges |
Javier Assad | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 8.4% | 13.7% | .301 | 78 | 128 | 0.0 | Melqui Torres |
Pedro Strop | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 11.6% | 21.2% | .286 | 93 | 107 | 0.0 | Ryne Duren |
Ben Holmes | 8.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 11.9% | 19.9% | .297 | 78 | 128 | 0.0 | Corey Lee |
Ryan Kellogg | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 7.8% | 13.3% | .303 | 81 | 123 | 0.0 | Chris Key |
Ryan Lawlor | 9.6 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 13.8% | 23.4% | .294 | 91 | 110 | -0.1 | Ricardo Jordan |
Jonathan Holder | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 8.8% | 21.6% | .291 | 92 | 109 | -0.1 | Brian Edmondson |
Jason Adam | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 12.5% | 27.3% | .290 | 87 | 115 | -0.1 | Calvin Jones |
Cayne Ueckert | 7.8 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 13.0% | 19.1% | .297 | 88 | 114 | -0.1 | Joel Moore |
Wyatt Short | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 11.4% | 19.9% | .294 | 88 | 114 | -0.1 | Ken Vining |
Dan Winkler | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 13.0% | 23.9% | .286 | 90 | 112 | -0.1 | Alan Mills |
Samuel Reyes | 6.7 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 11.6% | 16.3% | .301 | 85 | 117 | -0.1 | Dan Sullivan |
Alexander Vizcaíno | 7.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 11.7% | 18.3% | .294 | 76 | 132 | -0.1 | Pat Perry |
Blake Whitney | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 10.6% | 20.4% | .297 | 83 | 120 | -0.2 | Gene Stechschulte |
Peyton Remy | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 11.1% | 15.2% | .296 | 74 | 134 | -0.2 | Sean Evans |
Eury Ramos | 6.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 11.1% | 16.7% | .292 | 79 | 126 | -0.3 | Nick DeBarr |
Dakota Chalmers | 7.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 13.9% | 18.1% | .290 | 73 | 138 | -0.3 | Dave Proctor |
Dakota Mekkes | 8.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 12.3% | 19.6% | .295 | 80 | 125 | -0.3 | Tomas Santiago |
Cam Sanders | 7.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 13.4% | 18.8% | .294 | 73 | 137 | -0.4 | Donnie Bridges |
Joe Nahas | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 9.1% | 15.3% | .297 | 75 | 134 | -0.4 | Jonathan Johnson |
Dauris Valdez | 8.7 | 6.2 | 1.5 | 14.6% | 20.7% | .296 | 77 | 130 | -0.4 | Pete Sikaras |
Juan Gámez | 6.6 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 12.8% | 15.9% | .298 | 78 | 128 | -0.4 | Ryan Baker |
Burl Carraway | 9.2 | 9.4 | 1.3 | 20.9% | 20.3% | .298 | 67 | 150 | -0.7 | Curt Heidenreich |
Jackson McClelland | 7.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 13.8% | 18.0% | .298 | 66 | 152 | -0.8 | Mumba Rivera |
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.
ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
“at least Jason Heyward is unlikely to struggle anywhere near as much as he did last season.”
At age 32, with an offensive profile that didn’t have any room for decline anyway, isn’t it more than possible that he’s just cooked?
Not fun to say, but could be the case. Heyward is owed a ton of money and is beloved. Either of those can help a declining player stay on a roster. J-Hey is starting to push the line for bad that decline can get and still have those other two factors save him.
There’s cooked and there’s “.627 OPS” cooked.
Hot take: Heyward is at least as done as Hosmer
That was my first thought also: “at least Jason Heyward is unlikely to struggle anywhere near as much as he did last season**.”
**Citation missing and badly needed
I remember when Jason Heyward, as a prospect, was being compared to Griffey. Now he is compared to Bubba Carpenter.
This got me curious, because I remember some crazy comps too. So I googled up and got:
-Jeff Bagwell (Eno Sarris)
-Dave Parker, Fred McGriff (John Sickels)
-Dave Winfield, Dave Parker (Jonathan Mayo)
-Carl Yaszstremski, Reggie Smith, Chet Lemon (Dave Fleming)
That’s three Hall of Famers, three Hall of Fame-adjacent guys, and a guy who put up 30 wins in five seasons and was hailed as one of the 100 greatest players of all time (in only a few years) before drugs destroyed his career. Of those, Heyward’s career arc most resembles the last one despite not ever really showing as much power as Parker and him not having a cocaine habit (that we know of).
Great points here. I wonder if his absurdly good rookie year set the expectations too high for what he could really be.
If that year never happened, he would have settled in as an average to slightly above average hitter with very good rightfield defense, but with no illusions of the lofty .390+ OBP. He would still have some very good seasons, but the offense wouldn’t be the real reason.
He’d look a lot more like Jeff Francoeur or Franklin Gutierrez.
Someone pointed me to his batted ball profile a couple of years ago, and noted that while his BABIP wasn’t especially high in his good years he was still getting extremely lucky–lots of grounders that just missed. He nearly outperformed his xwOBA by 50 points in his walk year. It’s fair to question whether that was always the case but it’s worth noting his hard hit rate in 2010 was actually pretty solid (38.8%) and adequate in 2012 (34.5%) but comically low from 2013-2015. He’s one of those guys like Jackie Bradley who was always changing his swing, and at some point he must have just lost it.
Is it weird that ZiPS ends up settling on comps like Bubba Carpenter and Bob Skube for guys who have had more than 30 big league plate appearances?
ZiPS has all minor leaguers translated back to 1960.