2022 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

Hey, that doesn’t look half bad! I’m talking about the hitters, mind you, and it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise given that the Twins returned the entire lineup that was roughly middle-of-the-pack in offense in the American League. Given that last season was certainly more than half bad as a whole, and I’m going to get grumpy below, here’s the chance to say some nice things.

This is one place where I believe the ZiPS estimate of Byron Buxton’s playing time more than I do that of our depth charts. Minnesota’s extension was a fair deal on both sides, I feel, simply because you’d be lying or batty if you said that his health didn’t represent a significant risk that impacts his value in the open market. A seven-year contract worth $150–$200 million probably just isn’t out there, even if he were a free agent right now. It’s hard for the Twins to walk away, though, since a healthy season from Buxton, while possibly a unicorn, remains one of the biggest sources of possible upside on the roster.

Elsewhere, the offense generally looks fine. The only real position you could call an actual problem is perhaps the Trevor Larnach/Brent Rooker mix in left, with ZiPS not entirely enthralled with either. The Jimmy Kerrigan defensive projection turned my eye enough that I double-checked it, but ZiPS gave him the best defensive performance of a corner outfielder in the minors it ever has. If his glove is anywhere near what the computer thinks, he’s a more interesting back-of-the-roster talent than, say, Jake Cave.

Man, Jose Miranda. I admit to not really having paid much attention to his season in the minors, but he killed it in 2021 after a rather uninspiring history, and given his straight-up performance, he really ought to be considered one of the team’s top prospects. ZiPS is getting antsy about Royce Lewis, and really, he hasn’t actually been healthy and playing well since 2018. ZiPS may be too pessimistic about his mean projection long term, but I think he really ought to tumble down the prospect lists considerably. It’s hard to miss two years of development time.

Pitchers

And here’s the grumpy part. There’s absolutely a world in which trading José Berríos makes sense, and Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson is an excellent return for a year-plus of his services. But when you look at the lineup, it doesn’t appear that the Twins are utilizing a strategy under which the trade does make sense. They don’t appear to be rebuilding. They didn’t go out and get a Robbie Ray or a Kevin Gausman. At least so far this winter, their approach with the pitching staff seems to be shrugging and hoping for the best. This makes zero sense with Kenta Maeda out, in a best-case scenario, for most of the 2022 season. There’s no more Michael Pineda, either. Remember, this team was 24th in WAR in baseball with Berríos, Maeda, and Pineda.

The pitching staff isn’t a disaster on the level of the Pirates, but it’s just unbelievably mediocre and low-ceiling for a team that’s allegedly hoping to bounce back to AL Central relevance after a brutal 2021. There are players to like. I think Joe Ryan is underrated, and Bailey Ober is fine. Dylan Bundy is nowhere near as lousy as he was last season. But there’s no lightning in a bottle to catch.

In the bullpen, Taylor Rogers is absolutely fabulous; ZiPS doesn’t compare someone to Goose Gossage just for nostalgia. The rest of the relievers? A fitting roster for the Meh-nnesota Twins pitching staff.

As currently constructed, the Twins look a lot like a .500 team, but a disjointed, disappointing .500 team, one that has a wild card-worthy offense that the front office is pairing with a pitching staff that it seems little interested in upgrading. That’s a team that certainly has a chance in the AL Central if enough coin flips come up right, but I think the White Sox are significantly better, and the Tigers will be soon.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Jorge Polanco B 28 2B 660 601 96 168 35 4 28 93 48 115 11 6
Byron Buxton R 28 CF 340 316 53 85 23 2 20 52 16 85 12 2
Josh Donaldson R 36 3B 505 427 65 103 23 0 22 67 69 113 1 1
Max Kepler L 29 RF 519 455 73 109 26 3 23 67 55 93 8 2
Luis Arraez L 25 3B 568 513 71 156 26 4 4 44 49 51 3 3
Jose Miranda R 24 3B 590 548 77 149 32 1 18 74 28 81 2 2
Miguel Sanó R 29 1B 499 437 73 101 23 1 32 83 57 172 1 1
Mitch Garver R 31 C 303 264 42 64 13 1 16 44 33 85 1 1
Andrelton Simmons R 32 SS 449 415 44 105 17 1 4 37 28 52 5 1
BJ Boyd L 28 LF 392 364 53 94 15 1 12 50 20 84 8 0
Spencer Steer R 24 2B 461 412 48 93 17 2 16 50 34 103 5 2
Ryan Jeffers R 25 C 394 354 41 75 13 1 15 44 33 126 0 1
Austin Martin R 23 CF 448 377 61 87 16 2 5 26 47 96 10 3
Willians Astudillo R 30 3B 330 314 36 86 13 0 10 37 6 16 3 1
Jimmy Kerrigan R 28 RF 400 367 42 81 15 1 13 41 21 140 8 4
Ben Rortvedt L 24 C 274 248 29 51 10 1 8 26 19 76 0 0
Alex Kirilloff L 24 1B 351 327 37 88 16 1 12 44 20 81 3 3
Drew Maggi R 33 SS 404 358 47 78 14 2 9 37 33 117 9 5
Brent Rooker R 27 LF 440 385 54 83 19 1 21 55 40 148 1 1
Nick Gordon L 26 CF 356 330 36 83 17 2 6 35 19 81 16 3
Tomás Telis B 31 1B 414 393 50 109 13 1 8 39 17 53 3 1
Jake Cave L 29 CF 355 323 43 79 16 3 10 38 23 108 2 2
Rob Refsnyder R 31 CF 274 245 32 58 12 1 6 26 25 71 1 1
Edouard Julien L 23 2B 521 454 76 102 23 0 13 65 61 156 15 2
Kyle Garlick R 30 RF 285 265 37 62 17 1 14 38 15 87 2 0
Derek Fisher L 28 RF 323 287 41 61 12 2 11 35 33 100 6 2
Damek Tomscha R 30 3B 354 326 38 71 13 1 9 35 19 90 1 1
Tzu-Wei Lin L 28 2B 256 235 27 54 12 1 3 18 18 63 5 3
Mark Contreras L 27 RF 444 399 51 80 21 2 13 49 30 150 11 6
Jeferson Morales R 23 RF 411 376 50 85 20 0 13 49 26 84 6 2
Drew Stankiewicz B 29 2B 154 138 14 29 9 1 1 9 14 39 1 0
Michael Helman R 26 LF 421 389 40 84 16 1 13 42 27 85 9 3
Roberto Pena R 30 C 163 150 17 31 7 0 3 14 11 29 0 0
Curtis Terry R 25 1B 488 443 57 99 24 1 17 62 27 125 2 1
Gilberto Celestino R 23 CF 434 397 52 93 21 0 9 37 32 96 5 3
Trevor Larnach L 25 LF 440 391 43 87 18 1 13 42 38 144 2 0
Zander Wiel R 29 1B 456 419 50 92 26 3 14 51 26 133 2 1
Alex Isola R 23 C 422 386 51 87 13 0 15 52 33 94 1 0
Royce Lewis R 23 SS 430 401 44 91 18 2 8 38 23 93 15 8
Roy Morales R 27 1B 380 349 58 93 13 1 1 26 23 53 4 2
Leobaldo Cabrera R 24 LF 293 261 33 47 9 1 12 36 30 111 4 1
Daniel Descalso L 35 3B 191 164 19 28 6 1 4 17 24 60 1 0
Sherman Johnson L 31 1B 257 223 30 40 8 2 4 19 30 72 2 2
Seth Gray L 24 3B 478 433 56 81 13 1 12 43 33 146 4 1
Andrew Bechtold R 26 3B 421 381 38 73 17 0 10 35 36 151 2 1
Chris Williams R 25 C 229 199 21 31 7 1 6 19 25 83 1 0
DaShawn Keirsey L 25 CF 184 166 16 29 3 2 4 15 14 60 5 1
David Bañuelos R 25 C 197 186 14 31 6 1 2 11 7 81 1 1
JT Riddle L 30 SS 342 317 40 63 13 1 6 28 16 64 3 2
Wander Javier R 23 SS 431 404 41 75 12 4 14 45 19 153 1 1
Jair Camargo R 22 C 315 300 29 62 8 0 12 36 10 117 2 1
Matt Wallner L 24 RF 330 302 35 63 14 1 12 39 20 119 0 1
Kyle Schmidt R 24 C 173 157 16 30 5 0 1 8 13 49 0 1
Gabe Snyder L 27 1B 340 309 30 56 11 1 10 28 25 104 2 1
Yunior Severino B 22 2B 442 403 52 88 22 1 8 40 31 141 2 0
Ernie De La Trinidad L 26 RF 355 322 39 69 9 2 7 30 21 93 2 3
Caleb Hamilton R 27 C 317 283 32 48 11 1 7 28 30 108 3 2
Yeltsin Encarnacion L 24 2B 334 308 28 55 5 2 2 15 20 99 4 6

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Jorge Polanco .280 .334 .491 122 .211 .306 6.1 -3 3.7 Jorge Orta
Byron Buxton .269 .311 .544 127 .275 .308 6.5 7 3.1 Joe Carter
Josh Donaldson .241 .350 .450 117 .208 .277 5.6 1 3.0 Scott McClain
Max Kepler .240 .328 .462 113 .222 .254 5.5 8 2.8 Randy Bush
Luis Arraez .304 .363 .394 108 .090 .332 5.5 0 2.5 Cecil Travis
Jose Miranda .272 .316 .432 103 .161 .292 5.0 3 2.4 Mike Lowell
Miguel Sanó .231 .323 .508 123 .277 .296 5.7 -2 2.0 Nick Esasky
Mitch Garver .242 .333 .481 120 .239 .294 5.7 -4 1.7 Andy Seminick
Andrelton Simmons .253 .304 .328 74 .075 .281 3.7 9 1.4 Luis Figueroa
BJ Boyd .258 .303 .404 91 .146 .306 4.7 7 1.2 Chad Mottola
Spencer Steer .226 .293 .393 86 .167 .263 4.0 3 1.2 Vince Harrison
Ryan Jeffers .212 .289 .381 82 .169 .282 3.7 2 1.1 Dann Bilardello
Austin Martin .231 .342 .324 85 .093 .297 4.0 -1 0.9 Milton Bradley
Willians Astudillo .274 .300 .411 92 .137 .264 4.6 1 0.9 Terry Tiffee
Jimmy Kerrigan .221 .272 .373 75 .153 .318 3.5 14 0.9 Tony Barron
Ben Rortvedt .206 .272 .351 69 .145 .262 3.2 6 0.7 Mike Nickeas
Alex Kirilloff .269 .316 .434 103 .165 .325 5.0 1 0.7 Hal Morris
Drew Maggi .218 .303 .344 77 .126 .297 3.6 1 0.7 Dave Matranga
Brent Rooker .216 .306 .434 100 .218 .287 4.5 -4 0.5 Paul Torres
Nick Gordon .252 .298 .370 82 .118 .317 4.3 -2 0.5 Pat Sheridan
Tomás Telis .277 .310 .377 87 .099 .304 4.4 4 0.4 Aaron Miles
Jake Cave .245 .305 .406 93 .161 .337 4.4 -5 0.4 Len Gabrielson
Rob Refsnyder .237 .310 .367 85 .131 .310 4.0 0 0.4 Shane Spencer
Edouard Julien .225 .321 .361 87 .137 .312 4.3 -10 0.4 David Newhan
Kyle Garlick .234 .281 .464 99 .230 .293 4.7 -1 0.4 Wes Chamberlain
Derek Fisher .213 .297 .383 85 .171 .284 4.0 0 0.1 Nate Murphy
Damek Tomscha .218 .274 .347 69 .129 .273 3.2 3 0.1 Kevin Baez
Tzu-Wei Lin .230 .283 .328 67 .098 .302 3.2 3 0.1 Kent Anderson
Mark Contreras .201 .270 .361 71 .160 .284 3.3 8 0.1 Richie Robnett
Jeferson Morales .226 .288 .383 82 .157 .258 3.9 1 0.1 Chad Tracy
Drew Stankiewicz .210 .281 .312 63 .101 .286 3.1 2 0.1 Pedro Lopez
Michael Helman .216 .269 .362 71 .147 .244 3.4 6 0.0 Shane Gunderson
Roberto Pena .207 .265 .313 58 .107 .237 2.8 1 0.0 Pedro Grifol
Curtis Terry .223 .286 .397 85 .174 .272 4.0 0 0.0 Luis Garcia
Gilberto Celestino .234 .297 .355 78 .121 .288 3.7 -5 -0.1 Kelly Heath
Trevor Larnach .223 .302 .373 84 .151 .316 4.0 -3 -0.2 Joe Vitiello
Zander Wiel .220 .274 .396 81 .177 .287 3.8 2 -0.2 Mark Strucher
Alex Isola .225 .287 .376 80 .150 .260 3.8 -11 -0.2 John Flaherty
Royce Lewis .227 .270 .342 67 .115 .277 3.2 -1 -0.3 Jhonny Perez
Roy Morales .266 .317 .318 76 .052 .312 3.7 1 -0.3 Hunter Bledsoe
Leobaldo Cabrera .180 .264 .360 69 .180 .254 3.2 1 -0.4 Saul Bustos
Daniel Descalso .171 .277 .293 57 .122 .240 2.7 -1 -0.4 Dan Rohn
Sherman Johnson .179 .285 .287 58 .108 .245 2.6 3 -0.5 Kevin Koslofski
Seth Gray .187 .260 .305 54 .118 .251 2.7 4 -0.6 Todd Carey
Andrew Bechtold .192 .262 .315 57 .123 .286 2.8 1 -0.6 Steve Mena
Chris Williams .156 .250 .291 48 .136 .227 2.4 -3 -0.7 Jon Aceves
DaShawn Keirsey .175 .240 .289 45 .114 .245 2.5 -1 -0.7 Matt Sachse
David Bañuelos .167 .204 .242 22 .075 .282 1.5 2 -0.9 Alex Castillo
JT Riddle .199 .247 .303 50 .104 .231 2.5 -1 -0.9 Tim Cullen
Wander Javier .186 .228 .339 53 .153 .257 2.5 -1 -0.9 Brandon Warriax
Jair Camargo .207 .239 .353 59 .147 .292 2.9 -8 -1.1 Alex Castillo
Matt Wallner .209 .276 .381 78 .172 .298 3.5 -9 -1.1 Rafael Rivas
Kyle Schmidt .191 .260 .242 40 .051 .271 2.0 -6 -1.1 Mike Rabelo
Gabe Snyder .181 .250 .320 55 .139 .236 2.6 1 -1.2 James Clifford
Yunior Severino .218 .280 .337 68 .119 .315 3.3 -12 -1.3 Luis Aguayo
Ernie De La Trinidad .214 .277 .320 63 .106 .279 2.9 -5 -1.4 Steve McAllister
Caleb Hamilton .170 .250 .290 48 .120 .244 2.3 -10 -1.6 Patrick Arlis
Yeltsin Encarnacion .179 .229 .227 26 .049 .256 1.5 -4 -2.5 Jose Alguacil

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Kenta Maeda R 34 7 5 4.10 24 20 107.7 97 49 15 34 114 3.93
Joe Ryan R 26 6 5 4.11 21 20 96.3 85 44 15 25 101 4.01
Michael Pineda R 33 8 7 4.29 22 21 109.0 113 52 18 22 91 4.35
Bailey Ober R 26 4 3 4.22 22 22 100.3 99 47 17 23 98 4.24
Taylor Rogers L 31 4 2 2.59 46 0 48.7 40 14 4 12 61 2.60
Dylan Bundy R 29 8 7 4.55 25 23 116.7 113 59 19 40 116 4.47
Randy Dobnak R 27 7 6 4.36 23 16 97.0 107 47 11 27 63 4.34
Jordan Balazovic R 23 5 5 4.49 21 21 100.3 103 50 13 38 84 4.48
Josh Winder R 25 3 3 4.57 18 18 88.7 91 45 13 28 75 4.51
Devin Smeltzer L 26 5 5 4.71 25 16 101.3 106 53 16 28 79 4.65
Cole Sands R 24 4 4 4.70 21 20 84.3 84 44 12 36 78 4.60
Matt Shoemaker R 35 7 7 4.80 23 18 101.3 103 54 18 32 84 4.90
Andrew Albers 앨버스 L 36 6 7 4.88 19 17 101.3 116 55 18 22 71 4.89
Tyler Beck R 26 3 3 4.65 19 11 71.7 74 37 9 30 57 4.65
Chris Vallimont R 25 7 7 4.96 23 23 101.7 97 56 15 58 106 4.90
Aaron Rozek L 26 3 3 4.42 17 7 53.0 55 26 8 15 46 4.37
Austin Schulfer R 26 6 7 5.03 24 22 102.0 108 57 12 49 76 4.84
Alex Colomé R 33 4 3 3.92 61 0 59.7 55 26 7 22 55 4.12
Ben Gross R 25 4 5 4.95 20 16 87.3 94 48 13 32 70 4.78
Jorge Alcala R 26 6 5 4.44 49 6 77.0 73 38 11 29 80 4.21
Simeon Woods Richardson R 21 5 5 4.84 19 18 67.0 65 36 10 33 66 4.76
Jhoan Duran R 24 4 4 4.53 11 10 45.7 44 23 6 22 44 4.60
Tyler Duffey R 31 3 3 4.03 59 0 60.3 53 27 8 22 63 4.06
Jovani Moran L 25 3 3 4.06 38 0 64.3 53 29 7 38 81 3.99
Drew Strotman R 25 7 8 5.18 24 23 104.3 110 60 15 53 82 5.17
Rob Whalen R 28 4 4 4.88 15 11 55.3 58 30 7 24 42 4.77
Lewis Thorpe L 26 5 5 5.04 22 15 80.3 87 45 14 28 69 4.89
Cody Stashak R 28 2 2 4.11 33 1 46.0 42 21 7 15 56 3.83
Charlie Barnes L 26 6 7 5.24 24 23 110.0 122 64 15 48 75 5.09
Ian Hamilton R 27 4 3 4.31 38 2 54.3 48 26 7 28 62 4.28
Danny Coulombe L 32 4 3 4.12 39 1 48.0 47 22 7 14 46 4.10
Alex Scherff R 24 4 4 4.72 25 6 53.3 54 28 6 28 43 4.77
Caleb Thielbar L 35 3 3 4.17 51 0 58.3 55 27 9 18 62 4.09
Jharel Cotton R 30 3 3 4.52 39 3 61.7 59 31 9 28 64 4.51
Kody Funderburk L 25 3 4 5.16 17 10 59.3 60 34 9 32 52 5.17
Jake Faria R 28 4 4 5.20 32 11 79.7 82 46 13 38 78 4.92
Ian Gibaut R 28 3 2 4.44 36 1 50.7 48 25 7 23 51 4.50
Nick Vincent R 35 3 2 4.47 44 1 54.3 54 27 8 17 49 4.45
Trevor Megill R 28 2 2 4.34 39 0 45.7 44 22 7 18 52 4.21
Derek Law R 31 2 2 4.59 37 2 49.0 47 25 6 24 50 4.32
Luke Farrell R 31 2 2 4.83 26 4 41.0 38 22 7 22 47 4.79
Bryan Sammons L 27 5 7 5.38 25 21 102.0 109 61 16 53 82 5.35
Chandler Shepherd R 29 6 8 5.45 25 18 104.0 122 63 19 33 69 5.32
Melvi Acosta R 27 3 3 4.87 35 2 64.7 70 35 8 26 47 4.73
Griffin Jax R 27 6 7 5.53 24 21 114.0 126 70 23 39 86 5.48
Juan Minaya R 31 4 4 4.69 46 0 63.3 60 33 10 31 64 4.87
Yennier Cano R 28 3 4 4.82 39 1 61.7 59 33 8 34 60 4.77
Denny Bentley L 24 4 4 4.91 37 1 58.7 59 32 9 29 55 4.99
Kyle Barraclough R 32 4 5 4.86 45 0 46.3 41 25 8 28 56 5.01
Zach Neff L 26 5 6 4.85 33 0 55.7 58 30 8 24 47 4.81
Ryan Mason R 27 3 3 4.89 36 0 53.3 55 29 8 23 47 4.83
Argenis Angulo R 28 2 3 5.18 38 2 48.7 47 28 7 31 49 5.07
Chris Nunn L 31 1 2 5.14 33 0 42.0 40 24 7 24 43 5.16
Ralph Garza Jr. R 28 4 4 4.95 40 0 63.7 62 35 11 29 61 5.02
Josh Mitchell L 27 2 2 5.60 19 0 27.3 31 17 5 10 19 5.38
Evan Sisk L 25 2 2 5.06 40 0 58.7 60 33 7 31 47 4.87
Alex Phillips R 27 3 4 5.23 34 0 51.7 56 30 10 19 44 5.27
Edgar Garcia R 25 3 3 5.31 53 0 61.0 60 36 10 34 56 5.25
Robinson Leyer R 29 2 3 5.77 37 1 48.3 48 31 9 33 49 5.75

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Kenta Maeda 9.5 2.8 1.3 7.5% 25.3% .289 105 95 1.6 Mike Krukow
Joe Ryan 9.4 2.3 1.4 6.3% 25.4% .278 105 96 1.4 Brett Tomko
Michael Pineda 7.5 1.8 1.5 4.8% 19.9% .294 100 100 1.4 Brad Radke
Bailey Ober 8.8 2.1 1.5 5.5% 23.3% .295 102 98 1.4 Steve Woodard
Taylor Rogers 11.3 2.2 0.7 6.1% 31.0% .305 166 60 1.3 Rich Gossage
Dylan Bundy 8.9 3.1 1.5 8.0% 23.2% .294 95 106 1.1 Claudio Vargas
Randy Dobnak 5.8 2.5 1.0 6.4% 14.9% .304 99 101 1.1 Jack Russell
Jordan Balazovic 7.5 3.4 1.2 8.6% 19.1% .300 96 104 1.1 Dave Weathers
Josh Winder 7.6 2.8 1.3 7.3% 19.5% .297 94 106 0.9 Kip Gross
Devin Smeltzer 7.0 2.5 1.4 6.4% 18.2% .293 91 109 0.7 Butch Henry
Cole Sands 8.3 3.8 1.3 9.7% 21.0% .299 92 109 0.7 Roger McDowell
Matt Shoemaker 7.5 2.8 1.6 7.3% 19.3% .285 90 111 0.7 Bob Walk
Andrew Albers 6.3 2.0 1.6 5.0% 16.2% .303 88 114 0.6 Tom Browning
Tyler Beck 7.2 3.8 1.1 9.4% 17.9% .298 93 108 0.6 Shane Komine
Chris Vallimont 9.4 5.1 1.3 12.6% 23.1% .299 87 115 0.6 Roger Pavlik
Aaron Rozek 7.8 2.5 1.4 6.6% 20.3% .301 97 103 0.5 Tom Urbani
Austin Schulfer 6.7 4.3 1.1 10.6% 16.5% .302 86 117 0.5 Ed Wojna
Alex Colomé 8.3 3.3 1.1 8.6% 21.6% .286 110 91 0.5 Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Ben Gross 7.2 3.3 1.3 8.3% 18.1% .305 87 115 0.5 Steve Finch
Jorge Alcala 9.4 3.4 1.3 8.8% 24.2% .298 97 103 0.5 Dan Hubbs
Simeon Woods Richardson 8.9 4.4 1.3 11.1% 22.2% .297 89 112 0.5 Frank Wills
Jhoan Duran 8.7 4.3 1.2 10.8% 21.7% .297 95 105 0.5 Dallas Braden
Tyler Duffey 9.4 3.3 1.2 8.6% 24.7% .283 107 94 0.4 Dave Tobik
Jovani Moran 11.3 5.3 1.0 13.4% 28.6% .299 106 94 0.4 Tyler Johnson
Drew Strotman 7.1 4.6 1.3 11.2% 17.3% .299 83 120 0.3 Dave Hooten
Rob Whalen 6.8 3.9 1.1 9.7% 17.0% .298 88 113 0.3 Sean White
Lewis Thorpe 7.7 3.1 1.6 7.9% 19.5% .305 85 117 0.3 Billy Traber
Cody Stashak 11.0 2.9 1.4 7.7% 28.9% .307 105 95 0.3 Heath Bell
Charlie Barnes 6.1 3.9 1.2 9.6% 15.1% .303 82 122 0.3 Jake Chapman
Ian Hamilton 10.3 4.6 1.2 11.7% 25.9% .295 100 100 0.3 Jorge Vasquez
Danny Coulombe 8.6 2.6 1.3 6.9% 22.7% .296 104 96 0.3 Gary Lucas
Alex Scherff 7.3 4.7 1.0 11.6% 17.8% .298 91 110 0.3 Rich DeLosSantos
Caleb Thielbar 9.6 2.8 1.4 7.3% 25.2% .297 103 97 0.3 Bob Patterson
Jharel Cotton 9.3 4.1 1.3 10.3% 23.6% .299 95 105 0.2 Marino Salas
Kody Funderburk 7.9 4.9 1.4 11.9% 19.3% .295 83 120 0.2 Dusty Hughes
Jake Faria 8.8 4.3 1.5 10.6% 21.8% .307 86 117 0.2 David Holdridge
Ian Gibaut 9.1 4.1 1.2 10.3% 22.9% .295 97 103 0.1 Gerry Hannahs
Nick Vincent 8.1 2.8 1.3 7.3% 20.9% .295 96 104 0.1 Joe Slusarski
Trevor Megill 10.2 3.5 1.4 9.1% 26.3% .311 99 101 0.1 Jay Baller
Derek Law 9.2 4.4 1.1 11.1% 23.0% .304 94 107 0.1 Roy Thomas
Luke Farrell 10.3 4.8 1.5 12.2% 26.0% .298 89 112 0.1 Rich Croushore
Bryan Sammons 7.2 4.7 1.4 11.4% 17.6% .301 80 125 0.1 Phil Dumatrait 더마트레
Chandler Shepherd 6.0 2.9 1.6 7.1% 14.9% .305 79 127 0.0 Geoff Grenert
Melvi Acosta 6.5 3.6 1.1 9.0% 16.3% .304 88 113 0.0 Laddie Renfroe
Griffin Jax 6.8 3.1 1.8 7.7% 17.1% .294 78 128 -0.1 Alan Fowlkes
Juan Minaya 9.1 4.4 1.4 11.0% 22.8% .291 92 109 -0.1 Doug Bochtler
Yennier Cano 8.8 5.0 1.2 12.2% 21.6% .297 89 112 -0.1 Ryan Henderson
Denny Bentley 8.4 4.4 1.4 11.0% 20.8% .299 88 114 -0.1 Craig Breslow
Kyle Barraclough 10.9 5.4 1.6 13.5% 26.9% .292 89 113 -0.1 Rich Croushore
Zach Neff 7.6 3.9 1.3 9.7% 19.0% .301 89 113 -0.2 Tim Hamulack
Ryan Mason 7.9 3.9 1.4 9.7% 19.8% .301 88 114 -0.2 Dale Thayer
Argenis Angulo 9.1 5.7 1.3 13.9% 22.0% .299 83 120 -0.2 Doug Robertson
Chris Nunn 9.2 5.1 1.5 12.7% 22.8% .292 84 120 -0.3 Arnold Earley
Ralph Garza Jr. 8.6 4.1 1.6 10.3% 21.7% .288 87 115 -0.3 Jim Dougherty
Josh Mitchell 6.3 3.3 1.6 8.2% 15.6% .299 77 130 -0.3 Corey Hamman
Evan Sisk 7.2 4.8 1.1 11.7% 17.7% .298 85 118 -0.3 Anthony Ferrari
Alex Phillips 7.7 3.3 1.7 8.3% 19.2% .301 82 121 -0.4 Eric Moody
Edgar Garcia 8.3 5.0 1.5 12.4% 20.4% .289 81 123 -0.5 Chris Lemp
Robinson Leyer 9.1 6.1 1.7 14.7% 21.8% .295 75 134 -0.6 Kenny Marrero

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

newest oldest most voted
BenZobrist4MVP
Member
BenZobrist4MVP

Miguel Sano has to be one of the biggest differences between ZiPS and Steamer so far. Steamer has him at 0 WAR with a 110 wRC+ and ZiPS has 2 WAR with a 123 OPS+.

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

I’m probably going with Steamer here. It is so hard to make it as a guy who can’t play defense and strikes out more than anyone except Keon Broxton.

casey j
Member
casey j

His bigger problem has been health. He’s hit 39 bombs per 162 games for his career, and he’s only hit 30 homers twice, in seven seasons. He’s also had WAR years of around 2.5 three times, and all three of those seasons he played between 80 and 110 games, even with the Ks and the butchery. Sure, he’s CABABLE of a mu8ch better year, but when 132 games is your career high in games…

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

That certainly doesn’t help. The big issue this past year is that he was an error machine. 13 errors in about 1000 innings is pretty bad for a first baseman. I’m confident he’s not as bad as UZR makes him out to be (-38.4 in UZR/150…the second worst is Eric Hosmer at -6.3, and his OAA is just below average rather than the worst in the league) but it’s certainly not good! He’d have to hit that many homers over the course of a year for him to profile as a 2-win player, even if he’s more just “below average” defensively than “impossibly bad”.

dl80
Member
Member
dl80

I’d love to see an article series on guys who have a good/great offensive first season or partial season and then never get back there, for whatever reason: Sano, Heyward, Lawrie, Joe Crede, etc.

Tony
Member
Member
Tony

Joe Charboneau

Mean Mr. Mustard
Member
Mean Mr. Mustard

That would honestly be so many articles that it would take an entire staff of its own, unless you condense it to multiple guys per article. And that’s just to cover one prior year’s spread; establishing history’s one-and-dones would take a monumental amount of research.

I’d like to read them too.

dl80
Member
Member
dl80

I think 3-4 per article, with just a couple paragraphs explaining what went right in the beginning and what went wrong after, would be enough. I think the harder part would actually be finding them. I don’t know of any easy way to search for them, honestly.

kick me in the GO NATS
Member
Member
kick me in the GO NATS

How about just one and then not so goods.

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

Sano and Heyward aren’t even particularly egregious in that category compared to some others. Austin Kearns and Aledmys Diaz are the two more recent examples that come up for me. Marwin Gonzalez too, although the timing of his performance makes me think in comparison to everyone else on his team, he really needed to know what pitch was coming.

Rick Wilkins and Paul Lo Duca are probably my favorites in this category. Wilkins showed some promise in a limited role in 1992, won the opening day job for 1993, absolutely raked that year, and then suddenly became a below average offensive player in 1994 and beyond. Lo Duca had almost an identical situation 8 or 9 years later, but he did have a couple of league-average years after that.

gettwobrute79
Member
Member
gettwobrute79

While I would love to see an article like this too as I’m a nerd with baseball history, I think the story would get repetitive. In that, many guys had injury problems shortly after their breakout. Of the three you mentioned, Crede had well documented back issues, Sano has had lower body issues, Heyward had the bad shoulder injury he played through that seemed to set him back and then had issues with his wrist in 2016. I feel Lawrie had injury issues as well, but can’t recall specifics.

Anyway, I for one would certainly read such an article. Just be prepared to be depressed at the end of it!

kick me in the GO NATS
Member
Member
kick me in the GO NATS

It’s inSano!