2022 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

Hey, that doesn’t look half bad! I’m talking about the hitters, mind you, and it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise given that the Twins returned the entire lineup that was roughly middle-of-the-pack in offense in the American League. Given that last season was certainly more than half bad as a whole, and I’m going to get grumpy below, here’s the chance to say some nice things.

This is one place where I believe the ZiPS estimate of Byron Buxton’s playing time more than I do that of our depth charts. Minnesota’s extension was a fair deal on both sides, I feel, simply because you’d be lying or batty if you said that his health didn’t represent a significant risk that impacts his value in the open market. A seven-year contract worth $150–$200 million probably just isn’t out there, even if he were a free agent right now. It’s hard for the Twins to walk away, though, since a healthy season from Buxton, while possibly a unicorn, remains one of the biggest sources of possible upside on the roster.

Elsewhere, the offense generally looks fine. The only real position you could call an actual problem is perhaps the Trevor Larnach/Brent Rooker mix in left, with ZiPS not entirely enthralled with either. The Jimmy Kerrigan defensive projection turned my eye enough that I double-checked it, but ZiPS gave him the best defensive performance of a corner outfielder in the minors it ever has. If his glove is anywhere near what the computer thinks, he’s a more interesting back-of-the-roster talent than, say, Jake Cave.

Man, Jose Miranda. I admit to not really having paid much attention to his season in the minors, but he killed it in 2021 after a rather uninspiring history, and given his straight-up performance, he really ought to be considered one of the team’s top prospects. ZiPS is getting antsy about Royce Lewis, and really, he hasn’t actually been healthy and playing well since 2018. ZiPS may be too pessimistic about his mean projection long term, but I think he really ought to tumble down the prospect lists considerably. It’s hard to miss two years of development time.

Pitchers

And here’s the grumpy part. There’s absolutely a world in which trading José Berríos makes sense, and Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson is an excellent return for a year-plus of his services. But when you look at the lineup, it doesn’t appear that the Twins are utilizing a strategy under which the trade does make sense. They don’t appear to be rebuilding. They didn’t go out and get a Robbie Ray or a Kevin Gausman. At least so far this winter, their approach with the pitching staff seems to be shrugging and hoping for the best. This makes zero sense with Kenta Maeda out, in a best-case scenario, for most of the 2022 season. There’s no more Michael Pineda, either. Remember, this team was 24th in WAR in baseball with Berríos, Maeda, and Pineda.

The pitching staff isn’t a disaster on the level of the Pirates, but it’s just unbelievably mediocre and low-ceiling for a team that’s allegedly hoping to bounce back to AL Central relevance after a brutal 2021. There are players to like. I think Joe Ryan is underrated, and Bailey Ober is fine. Dylan Bundy is nowhere near as lousy as he was last season. But there’s no lightning in a bottle to catch.

In the bullpen, Taylor Rogers is absolutely fabulous; ZiPS doesn’t compare someone to Goose Gossage just for nostalgia. The rest of the relievers? A fitting roster for the Meh-nnesota Twins pitching staff.

As currently constructed, the Twins look a lot like a .500 team, but a disjointed, disappointing .500 team, one that has a wild card-worthy offense that the front office is pairing with a pitching staff that it seems little interested in upgrading. That’s a team that certainly has a chance in the AL Central if enough coin flips come up right, but I think the White Sox are significantly better, and the Tigers will be soon.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.