2022 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees.

Batters

The offense is a relatively stable group, especially with the addition of Joey Gallo for a season, but some of the shine has come off the team’s upside here. Giancarlo Stanton was healthy and solid in 2021, but the year largely served to narrow his range of outcomes in ZiPS rather than change its trajectory; a year older and farther away, ZiPS sees it as less likely that another 2017 is lurking in there somewhere. It’s also less likely that DJ LeMahieu turns in another elite season, and center field is in a tough spot given how much of the depth chart is tied up in the frequently-injured Aaron Hicks. We can’t skip over Gleyber Torres, either; for a player who hit 38 homers as a 22-year-old shortstop just two years ago, his career is in a precarious position now.

That’s not the say the lineup is an actual problem or anything. It’s just that the 2017-20 days of the Yankees being able to trounce opposing pitchers aren’t easily reclaimed. At least there aren’t many gaping holes here, and the Yankees always have the potential to do something significant in free agency. Carlos Correa featured heavily in Yankees rumors before the lockout, and it’s not as if it would be a shocking match. The talk in recent days of Matt Chapman playing shortstop in New York for a season reflects a reality where the Yankees don’t really have any great 2022 options at the position. Gio Urshela is stretched there, I doubt they’re going to revisit Torres, and if they were confident LeMahieu could make do, he would have played there at some point in 2021. ZiPS likes the prospects of both Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe at short, so there’s a case for the Yankees going with the short-term solution. The team would no doubt like to free up some cash for an Aaron Judge extension, so long as it doesn’t necessitate signing him into his 40s. As an aside, “free up some cash” still sounds really weird when talking about the Yankees.

Pitchers

The Yankees share some similarities with the Red Sox here, in that the rotation could be really good, but there are a lot of health questions in the way. Gerrit Cole remains Gerrit Cole, but there are some real concerns once you start thinking about who starts the other 130 or so games. Jordan Montgomery is the best of the rest. He survived 2021 and, at the risk of reopening the lengthy discussion we had a few weeks ago about starter classification, he ought to be able to play Nelson Riddle to Gerrit’s Nat King Cole. I’m less sure of Luis Severino‘s projection; ZiPS is aware of his injuries, but it still seems a rather kind number to me after he’s basically missed three seasons. I certainly wouldn’t want to bet the farm on Jameson Taillon’s health, either. Or maybe I do; running a farm sounds like a lot of work, as I’m 95% sure I can’t just plant taco seeds.

ZiPS thinks that Nestor Cortes will be adequate, but not at his 2021 breakout level (Steamer appears to agree on this score). This is a good time to remind you that similarity is from the baseline looking back, not the expectation going forward, so ZiPS isn’t predicting Luis Gil will be Nolan Ryan. Now, that’s one of his possible futures, but his next comps in order are Octavio Dotel, Jeff Juden, Jimmy Journell, and Daniel Cabrera. Dotel had a 15-year-career, but compared to the Ryan Express, he was the Dotel Overflow Light Rail Car.

As usual, ZiPS is a big fan of the bullpen. The computer loves Joely Rodríguez, the “other” player in the Joey Gallo trade, and thinks that Jimmy Cordero has huge upside for the Bombers once he is back from Tommy John surgery. But the relief corps, like the rotation, is quite vulnerable to injuries, and once you get past Lucas Luetge or so, the next tier of in-house solutions constitutes a significant drop-off in quality. Given the team’s more pressing needs, I can’t imagine New York splashing much cash here after the next CBA is (hopefully) signed, but it would probably pay to pick up a few more non-roster invitees willing to play for Scranton.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.