2022 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees.

Batters

The offense is a relatively stable group, especially with the addition of Joey Gallo for a season, but some of the shine has come off the team’s upside here. Giancarlo Stanton was healthy and solid in 2021, but the year largely served to narrow his range of outcomes in ZiPS rather than change its trajectory; a year older and farther away, ZiPS sees it as less likely that another 2017 is lurking in there somewhere. It’s also less likely that DJ LeMahieu turns in another elite season, and center field is in a tough spot given how much of the depth chart is tied up in the frequently-injured Aaron Hicks. We can’t skip over Gleyber Torres, either; for a player who hit 38 homers as a 22-year-old shortstop just two years ago, his career is in a precarious position now.

That’s not the say the lineup is an actual problem or anything. It’s just that the 2017-20 days of the Yankees being able to trounce opposing pitchers aren’t easily reclaimed. At least there aren’t many gaping holes here, and the Yankees always have the potential to do something significant in free agency. Carlos Correa featured heavily in Yankees rumors before the lockout, and it’s not as if it would be a shocking match. The talk in recent days of Matt Chapman playing shortstop in New York for a season reflects a reality where the Yankees don’t really have any great 2022 options at the position. Gio Urshela is stretched there, I doubt they’re going to revisit Torres, and if they were confident LeMahieu could make do, he would have played there at some point in 2021. ZiPS likes the prospects of both Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe at short, so there’s a case for the Yankees going with the short-term solution. The team would no doubt like to free up some cash for an Aaron Judge extension, so long as it doesn’t necessitate signing him into his 40s. As an aside, “free up some cash” still sounds really weird when talking about the Yankees.

Pitchers

The Yankees share some similarities with the Red Sox here, in that the rotation could be really good, but there are a lot of health questions in the way. Gerrit Cole remains Gerrit Cole, but there are some real concerns once you start thinking about who starts the other 130 or so games. Jordan Montgomery is the best of the rest. He survived 2021 and, at the risk of reopening the lengthy discussion we had a few weeks ago about starter classification, he ought to be able to play Nelson Riddle to Gerrit’s Nat King Cole. I’m less sure of Luis Severino‘s projection; ZiPS is aware of his injuries, but it still seems a rather kind number to me after he’s basically missed three seasons. I certainly wouldn’t want to bet the farm on Jameson Taillon’s health, either. Or maybe I do; running a farm sounds like a lot of work, as I’m 95% sure I can’t just plant taco seeds.

ZiPS thinks that Nestor Cortes will be adequate, but not at his 2021 breakout level (Steamer appears to agree on this score). This is a good time to remind you that similarity is from the baseline looking back, not the expectation going forward, so ZiPS isn’t predicting Luis Gil will be Nolan Ryan. Now, that’s one of his possible futures, but his next comps in order are Octavio Dotel, Jeff Juden, Jimmy Journell, and Daniel Cabrera. Dotel had a 15-year-career, but compared to the Ryan Express, he was the Dotel Overflow Light Rail Car.

As usual, ZiPS is a big fan of the bullpen. The computer loves Joely Rodríguez, the “other” player in the Joey Gallo trade, and thinks that Jimmy Cordero has huge upside for the Bombers once he is back from Tommy John surgery. But the relief corps, like the rotation, is quite vulnerable to injuries, and once you get past Lucas Luetge or so, the next tier of in-house solutions constitutes a significant drop-off in quality. Given the team’s more pressing needs, I can’t imagine New York splashing much cash here after the next CBA is (hopefully) signed, but it would probably pay to pick up a few more non-roster invitees willing to play for Scranton.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Aaron Judge R 30 RF 575 496 85 137 22 0 36 95 71 153 5 2
Joey Gallo L 28 RF 534 434 83 89 15 1 38 91 93 200 6 1
DJ LeMahieu R 33 2B 636 574 88 162 26 2 13 63 54 87 5 2
Anthony Rizzo L 32 1B 552 469 69 122 21 2 23 75 56 87 6 2
Giancarlo Stanton R 32 RF 530 466 62 119 20 0 30 91 56 151 1 0
Gleyber Torres R 25 SS 571 507 67 132 24 0 20 71 54 119 10 4
Gio Urshela R 30 3B 471 441 56 123 26 1 17 62 24 98 1 0
Anthony Volpe R 21 SS 513 461 59 105 20 1 22 67 38 120 16 4
Luke Voit R 31 1B 395 346 52 87 13 1 20 62 41 110 0 0
Oswaldo Cabrera B 23 2B 524 486 57 113 22 1 18 66 31 131 16 5
Oswald Peraza R 22 SS 531 492 55 121 20 1 14 47 30 119 25 7
Gary Sánchez R 29 C 434 380 54 79 14 1 23 66 47 122 0 0
Aaron Hicks B 32 CF 256 215 35 48 9 1 9 32 37 59 3 1
Brett Gardner L 38 CF 423 363 46 81 15 4 10 39 50 94 5 1
David Freitas R 33 C 297 263 34 69 12 0 7 31 28 57 1 0
Chris Gittens R 28 1B 342 295 41 64 9 0 16 48 41 113 0 0
José Peraza R 28 2B 373 346 44 87 16 1 9 38 18 55 7 3
Kyle Higashioka R 32 C 252 233 27 48 11 0 12 37 16 69 0 0
Jesus Bastidas R 23 2B 245 220 31 48 6 0 9 31 17 63 6 2
Rob Brantly L 32 C 271 245 32 60 10 1 6 26 17 47 0 0
Sócrates Brito L 29 RF 434 397 54 95 18 3 11 48 27 108 13 4
Ender Inciarte L 31 CF 292 262 36 61 10 1 4 24 23 55 6 3
Armando Alvarez R 27 3B 420 384 51 89 19 1 10 45 28 81 2 1
Max McDowell R 28 C 241 209 25 40 8 0 3 16 21 61 2 1
Michael Beltre L 26 CF 422 381 43 83 12 3 10 38 37 114 20 3
Mickey Gasper B 26 C 329 293 34 61 12 0 9 30 28 80 2 0
Brandon Lockridge R 25 CF 430 398 44 86 16 2 11 39 25 131 13 4
Ryan LaMarre R 33 LF 339 309 37 71 12 3 7 33 24 98 10 5
Rodolfo Durán R 24 C 195 184 17 38 6 1 5 16 9 50 0 0
Cristian Perez R 23 3B 303 281 30 63 10 1 4 21 17 52 8 3
Jay Bruce L 35 1B 271 248 28 51 12 1 13 41 21 71 1 0
Estevan Florial L 24 CF 413 371 43 76 14 2 13 41 36 139 11 7
Miguel Andújar R 27 LF 289 271 35 72 13 1 11 33 13 49 0 1
Jason Lopez R 24 C 228 208 24 38 7 0 4 19 18 72 4 0
Josh Breaux R 24 C 361 336 38 72 12 1 15 48 19 103 1 0
Blake Perkins B 25 CF 390 345 42 64 10 2 7 30 39 118 10 5
Zack Zehner R 29 LF 327 296 35 62 11 2 9 32 26 101 3 2
Oliver Dunn L 24 2B 278 249 25 46 7 1 7 21 26 85 7 3
Elijah Dunham L 24 LF 426 394 46 84 16 1 11 41 27 106 14 2
Aaron Palensky R 23 LF 160 142 21 28 6 1 4 15 15 45 0 3
Anthony Seigler B 23 C 184 167 21 32 6 0 4 16 14 49 1 1
Eduardo Torrealba R 23 2B 317 293 31 68 9 1 6 21 17 61 5 2
Max Burt R 25 3B 366 338 38 66 10 1 8 31 19 102 5 2
Evan Alexander L 24 LF 207 188 16 33 5 1 4 11 16 70 5 3
Matt Pita R 25 LF 249 228 23 42 9 1 5 20 14 74 8 3
Brandon Wagner L 26 1B 353 308 36 52 8 0 8 27 35 144 1 1
Frederick Cuevas L 24 RF 292 268 27 51 12 1 5 21 19 77 6 2

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Aaron Judge .276 .369 .538 144 .262 .329 7.4 9 5.2 Tim Salmon
Joey Gallo .205 .352 .507 131 .302 .260 6.2 5 3.7 Darrell Evans
DJ LeMahieu .282 .344 .402 104 .120 .314 5.2 5 3.1 Mark Loretta
Anthony Rizzo .260 .362 .461 123 .200 .276 6.1 2 2.7 Lee Thomas
Giancarlo Stanton .255 .338 .491 123 .236 .312 6.0 -1 2.5 Richie Zisk
Gleyber Torres .260 .332 .426 106 .166 .304 5.2 -5 2.2 Yunel Escobar
Gio Urshela .279 .318 .458 109 .179 .325 5.5 -1 2.0 Ray Knight
Anthony Volpe .228 .296 .419 92 .191 .260 4.5 -3 1.4 Rey Quinones
Luke Voit .251 .342 .468 119 .217 .310 5.8 -4 1.3 Jeff Conine
Oswaldo Cabrera .233 .280 .393 81 .160 .282 4.0 5 1.2 Rick Lockwood
Oswald Peraza .246 .295 .376 82 .130 .298 4.2 -1 1.1 Julio Franco
Gary Sánchez .208 .304 .432 98 .224 .238 4.5 -9 1.0 Dave Duncan
Aaron Hicks .223 .340 .400 102 .177 .265 4.8 -2 0.8 Bobby Del Greco
Brett Gardner .223 .319 .369 88 .146 .274 4.2 -2 0.8 Ron Gant
David Freitas .262 .338 .388 98 .125 .312 4.8 -6 0.7 Geno Petralli
Chris Gittens .217 .317 .410 97 .193 .289 4.5 1 0.6 Jeff Bailey
José Peraza .251 .298 .382 84 .130 .277 4.1 0 0.6 Clint Barmes
Kyle Higashioka .206 .258 .408 78 .202 .237 3.6 2 0.5 Chad Moeller
Jesus Bastidas .218 .284 .368 77 .150 .264 3.7 2 0.4 Luis Guance
Rob Brantly .245 .311 .367 85 .122 .281 4.1 -3 0.4 Charlie Berry
Sócrates Brito .239 .290 .383 82 .144 .302 4.1 4 0.4 Alexis Gomez
Ender Inciarte .233 .300 .324 71 .092 .281 3.4 3 0.3 Ryan Fleming
Armando Alvarez .232 .283 .365 75 .133 .270 3.6 2 0.3 Gary Scott
Max McDowell .191 .289 .273 55 .081 .255 2.6 3 0.2 Bill Dobrolsky
Michael Beltre .218 .290 .344 73 .126 .284 3.8 -2 0.2 Jon Hamilton
Mickey Gasper .208 .287 .341 71 .133 .255 3.4 -2 0.2 Blake Barthol
Brandon Lockridge .216 .268 .349 67 .133 .293 3.4 4 0.2 Hector Perez
Ryan LaMarre .230 .295 .356 77 .126 .314 3.7 4 0.1 Chris Clapinski
Rodolfo Durán .207 .246 .332 56 .125 .256 2.8 4 0.1 Jeff Winchester
Cristian Perez .224 .275 .310 60 .085 .262 3.0 5 0.1 Bob Kennedy
Jay Bruce .206 .266 .419 83 .214 .232 3.8 2 0.0 Dave May
Estevan Florial .205 .277 .358 72 .154 .288 3.3 0 -0.1 Joe Hamilton
Miguel Andújar .266 .299 .443 99 .177 .289 4.8 -7 -0.2 Kendrys Morales
Jason Lopez .183 .250 .274 44 .091 .258 2.5 3 -0.2 Jon Aceves
Josh Breaux .214 .256 .390 73 .176 .261 3.5 -6 -0.3 Joe DePastino
Blake Perkins .186 .271 .287 53 .101 .259 2.6 3 -0.5 Tyrone Pendergrass
Zack Zehner .209 .273 .351 69 .142 .285 3.2 0 -0.6 Mark Doran
Oliver Dunn .185 .264 .305 55 .120 .248 2.7 -2 -0.7 Manny Patel
Elijah Dunham .213 .268 .343 66 .129 .264 3.4 0 -0.7 Edward Lowery
Aaron Palensky .197 .288 .338 71 .141 .258 2.8 -5 -0.8 Allen Butler
Anthony Seigler .192 .257 .299 52 .108 .246 2.5 -5 -0.8 Dave Liddell
Eduardo Torrealba .232 .283 .331 67 .099 .274 3.3 -8 -0.9 Trey Webb
Max Burt .195 .247 .302 49 .107 .254 2.5 1 -0.9 Ryan Stegall
Evan Alexander .176 .246 .277 43 .101 .254 2.2 1 -1.0 B.J. Garbe
Matt Pita .184 .246 .298 48 .114 .248 2.5 -2 -1.2 Saul Bustos
Brandon Wagner .169 .267 .273 49 .104 .282 2.3 2 -1.3 Joe Dusan
Frederick Cuevas .190 .246 .299 48 .108 .247 2.5 -2 -1.4 Kelcey Mucker

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Gerrit Cole R 31 16 7 2.82 30 30 182.0 138 57 21 47 248 2.78
Jordan Montgomery L 29 7 5 3.85 27 27 140.3 133 60 20 39 148 3.80
Luis Severino R 28 8 5 3.62 18 17 97.0 88 39 12 27 105 3.55
Jameson Taillon R 30 8 6 4.24 26 26 131.7 125 62 20 37 128 4.17
Jonathan Loáisiga R 27 7 4 3.24 47 4 66.7 57 24 6 20 74 3.21
Domingo Germán R 29 7 6 4.40 24 19 108.3 99 53 20 32 120 4.33
Chad Green R 31 9 5 3.54 61 3 73.7 59 29 12 21 96 3.63
Luis Gil R 24 4 4 4.50 27 24 108.0 94 54 16 57 127 4.48
Aroldis Chapman L 34 5 3 2.98 56 0 51.3 31 17 6 30 88 3.20
Hayden Wesneski R 24 9 9 4.72 25 24 118.3 122 62 20 39 102 4.82
Michael King R 27 5 4 4.13 22 10 76.3 72 35 11 23 76 4.16
Nestor Cortes Jr. L 27 4 3 4.44 27 15 97.3 94 48 19 29 104 4.57
Ken Waldichuk L 24 5 4 4.71 23 21 101.3 96 53 16 50 108 4.73
Joely Rodríguez L 30 4 2 3.10 51 0 49.3 42 17 4 17 56 3.06
Jhony Brito R 24 7 7 4.94 22 22 116.7 128 64 21 32 83 5.07
Sean Boyle R 25 5 5 4.42 26 9 73.3 75 36 10 23 60 4.46
Matt Krook L 27 6 6 4.75 26 20 89.0 83 47 10 55 87 4.71
Randy Vasquez R 23 6 6 4.84 22 20 96.7 101 52 14 41 77 4.93
JP Sears L 26 6 6 4.74 23 16 87.3 87 46 15 32 85 4.74
Clay Holmes R 29 6 5 4.08 58 3 75.0 63 34 7 43 85 4.09
Jimmy Cordero R 30 5 3 3.74 61 0 67.3 62 28 5 28 59 3.86
Mike Montgomery L 32 4 4 4.67 24 12 71.3 77 37 10 27 55 4.72
Shawn Semple R 26 6 7 5.06 24 18 99.7 105 56 16 42 83 5.05
Wandy Peralta L 30 4 3 3.96 58 1 52.3 49 23 6 20 51 3.98
Clarke Schmidt R 26 3 3 4.83 16 13 59.7 61 32 9 27 53 4.92
Zack Britton L 34 1 1 3.82 38 1 33.0 28 14 2 18 28 4.00
Lucas Luetge L 35 4 3 4.19 51 1 62.3 60 29 10 18 63 4.25
Luis Medina R 23 5 6 5.35 23 22 101.0 100 60 14 66 92 5.30
Ron Marinaccio R 26 1 1 4.37 37 0 55.7 49 27 8 29 64 4.47
Josh Maciejewski L 26 6 7 5.36 20 15 85.7 93 51 14 36 64 5.25
Matt Bowman R 31 2 2 4.45 51 0 58.7 55 29 7 31 55 4.54
Zach Greene R 25 6 5 4.44 34 0 52.7 49 26 8 22 55 4.49
Vinny Nittoli R 31 4 4 4.91 31 5 44.0 45 24 8 15 41 4.84
Reggie McClain R 29 4 5 5.00 36 6 72.0 76 40 11 30 57 5.00
Nick Ernst R 25 3 3 4.67 34 1 54.0 51 28 7 28 55 4.55
Barrett Loseke R 25 3 3 4.73 29 1 59.0 58 31 8 29 55 4.71
Sal Romano R 28 4 5 5.03 47 6 78.7 84 44 13 31 62 5.05
Stephen Ridings R 26 3 3 5.12 24 3 38.7 36 22 6 23 43 4.91
Brody Koerner R 28 4 5 5.48 27 16 90.3 101 55 17 34 64 5.50
Adam Warren R 34 3 3 4.84 34 1 48.3 49 26 7 22 42 4.81
Deivi García R 23 6 7 5.60 26 24 106.0 110 66 20 61 98 5.68
Michael Gomez R 25 3 3 4.78 30 0 49.0 47 26 7 27 51 4.73
Addison Russ R 27 3 3 4.84 42 0 48.3 46 26 7 26 48 4.88
Trevor Lane L 28 3 3 4.87 30 0 44.3 44 24 7 19 42 4.76
Braden Bristo R 27 4 4 5.05 38 1 51.7 49 29 8 29 53 5.00
Nick Green R 27 4 5 5.68 27 12 76.0 82 48 11 46 55 5.63
Albert Abreu R 26 3 4 5.68 33 7 65.0 64 41 12 42 66 5.67
Nick Goody R 30 4 5 5.36 45 0 48.7 48 29 11 22 52 5.46
Greg Weissert R 27 3 4 5.36 40 0 50.3 49 30 8 33 51 5.37
Steven Jennings R 23 5 7 5.79 29 5 79.3 92 51 16 32 52 5.89

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Gerrit Cole 12.3 2.3 1.0 6.5% 34.3% .289 154 65 5.3 Pedro Martinez
Jordan Montgomery 9.5 2.5 1.3 6.7% 25.3% .300 113 89 2.5 Greg Swindell
Luis Severino 9.7 2.5 1.1 6.7% 26.1% .297 120 84 2.0 Larry Christenson
Jameson Taillon 8.7 2.5 1.4 6.7% 23.1% .289 102 98 1.8 Matt Morris
Jonathan Loáisiga 10.0 2.7 0.8 7.2% 26.7% .295 134 75 1.5 Dave Schmidt
Domingo Germán 10.0 2.7 1.7 7.1% 26.5% .285 98 102 1.3 Vic Raschi
Chad Green 11.7 2.6 1.5 7.0% 32.1% .280 122 82 1.2 Gene Garber
Luis Gil 10.6 4.8 1.3 12.1% 26.8% .291 96 104 1.2 Nolan Ryan
Aroldis Chapman 15.4 5.3 1.1 13.9% 40.7% .281 145 69 1.2 John Hiller
Hayden Wesneski 7.8 3.0 1.5 7.6% 19.8% .295 92 109 1.0 Ramiro Mendoza
Michael King 9.0 2.7 1.3 7.1% 23.5% .292 105 95 1.0 Matt Belisle
Nestor Cortes Jr. 9.6 2.7 1.8 7.0% 25.2% .292 98 103 1.0 Rheal Cormier
Ken Waldichuk 9.6 4.4 1.4 11.2% 24.1% .297 92 109 0.9 Juan Nieves
Joely Rodríguez 10.2 3.1 0.7 8.3% 27.3% .299 140 72 0.9 Mark Guthrie
Jhony Brito 6.4 2.5 1.6 6.3% 16.4% .293 88 114 0.7 Dave Telgheder
Sean Boyle 7.4 2.8 1.2 7.2% 18.9% .295 98 102 0.7 Marc Phillips
Matt Krook 8.8 5.6 1.0 13.6% 21.5% .296 91 110 0.7 Hub Pruett
Randy Vasquez 7.2 3.8 1.3 9.5% 17.9% .297 89 112 0.7 Clemente Nunez
JP Sears 8.8 3.3 1.5 8.4% 22.4% .296 91 109 0.7 Glendon Rusch
Clay Holmes 10.2 5.2 0.8 13.0% 25.6% .293 106 94 0.6 Colter Bean
Jimmy Cordero 7.9 3.7 0.7 9.6% 20.2% .292 116 86 0.6 Saul Rivera
Mike Montgomery 6.9 3.4 1.3 8.5% 17.4% .303 93 108 0.5 Randy Niemann
Shawn Semple 7.5 3.8 1.4 9.4% 18.7% .299 86 117 0.5 Bill Swift
Wandy Peralta 8.8 3.4 1.0 8.9% 22.8% .297 109 91 0.5 Randy Choate
Clarke Schmidt 8.0 4.1 1.4 10.1% 19.9% .299 90 111 0.4 Jason Isringhausen
Zack Britton 7.6 4.9 0.5 12.5% 19.4% .274 113 88 0.4 Luis Arroyo
Lucas Luetge 9.1 2.6 1.4 6.8% 23.9% .294 103 97 0.4 Buddy Groom
Luis Medina 8.2 5.9 1.2 14.1% 19.7% .297 81 123 0.2 Bill Mooneyham
Ron Marinaccio 10.3 4.7 1.3 11.9% 26.2% .293 99 101 0.1 Ryan Bukvich
Josh Maciejewski 6.7 3.8 1.5 9.4% 16.7% .298 81 124 0.1 Billy Traber
Matt Bowman 8.4 4.8 1.1 11.9% 21.2% .291 97 103 0.1 Dennis Higgins
Zach Greene 9.4 3.8 1.4 9.6% 24.1% .293 97 103 0.1 Darrin Chapin
Vinny Nittoli 8.4 3.1 1.6 7.9% 21.5% .296 88 113 0.1 Rusty Meacham
Reggie McClain 7.1 3.8 1.4 9.3% 17.8% .297 87 115 0.1 Rob Marquez
Nick Ernst 9.2 4.7 1.2 11.7% 22.9% .299 93 108 0.0 Mike Madden
Barrett Loseke 8.4 4.4 1.2 11.0% 20.9% .298 92 109 0.0 Paul Schneider
Sal Romano 7.1 3.5 1.5 8.9% 17.8% .297 86 116 0.0 Bryan Corey
Stephen Ridings 10.0 5.4 1.4 13.1% 24.6% .297 85 118 0.0 Henry Owens
Brody Koerner 6.4 3.4 1.7 8.4% 15.8% .296 79 127 0.0 Don August
Adam Warren 7.8 4.1 1.3 10.3% 19.6% .298 89 112 -0.1 Darrin Babineaux
Deivi García 8.3 5.2 1.7 12.5% 20.1% .297 77 129 -0.1 Matt Wright
Michael Gomez 9.4 5.0 1.3 12.3% 23.2% .301 91 110 -0.1 Joe Jacobsen
Addison Russ 8.9 4.8 1.3 12.0% 22.1% .293 89 112 -0.1 Santiago Ramirez
Trevor Lane 8.5 3.9 1.4 9.7% 21.5% .296 89 113 -0.1 Mark Holzemer
Braden Bristo 9.2 5.1 1.4 12.4% 22.7% .293 86 117 -0.2 Mike Shade
Nick Green 6.5 5.4 1.3 13.0% 15.5% .298 76 131 -0.3 Julien Tucker
Albert Abreu 9.1 5.8 1.7 14.0% 21.9% .294 76 131 -0.4 Eric Newman
Nick Goody 9.6 4.1 2.0 10.2% 24.2% .289 81 124 -0.4 Doug Henry
Greg Weissert 9.1 5.9 1.4 14.2% 21.9% .297 81 124 -0.4 Pete Sikaras
Steven Jennings 5.9 3.6 1.8 8.9% 14.4% .297 75 134 -0.6 Ron Rightnowar

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

newest oldest most voted
JustinPBG
Member
Member
JustinPBG

Cole’s comp is pretty good

Mike Green
Member
Member
Mike Green

Pedro delivered a 7.4 fWAR and 8 bWAR season, with an ERA+ of 211, at age 31. The comp is good fun though.

Dmjn53
Member
Dmjn53

A 7 win season from Cole wouldn’t shock me. Wouldn’t bet on it, but he’s obviously capable

MikeD
Member
Member
MikeD

Probably always best to bet against a 7 win season from any pitcher, but he’s one of the handful in the game who can achieve it. The favorite of any pitcher to do it would be deGrom, but he also has healthy issues that have to be factored in.

kylerkelton
Member
kylerkelton

Oh yeah is that the guy who pitched with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, and Joe Blanton in the 09 World Series?