2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Diego Padres.

Batters

There’s no lying: 2021 was a tough year for the Padres, at least the last six weeks or so. As late as August 10, they were firmly in control of a playoff spot and, at 67–49, on pace for a 94-win season. The rest of the year was as brutal a run as I can remember for any team, certainly for one that had legitimate playoff hopes beforehand. Over the last 46 games of the season, San Diego went 12–34, the worst in baseball, even worse than the Orioles, who were nearly at the level of dragooning fans into throwing mop-up innings. Before the Friars, only one team, the 1986 Orioles, ever finished the season this poorly while winning at least 70 games. That was a team I remember well, being an eight-year-old in Baltimore at the time; it basically sent Earl Weaver back to retirement at a relatively young 56.

The good news is that the best reasons for liking the Padres before 2021 remain on the team. Fernando Tatis Jr. has the best projection for any player on a team run so far, by a two-win cushion, though this is partially thanks to ZiPS having anxiety about Mike Trout’s injury record in recent seasons and will change when the ZiPS for the Nats go public, but he is the foundation of this team, even if he eventually has to move to another position because of shoulder problems. Manny Machado is still in his 20s, Jake Cronenworth had a star-level season, and ZiPS thinks Trent Grisham will have a better 2022.

The bad news is that outside of Tatis, Cronenworth and Joe Musgrove, there are precious few Padres to feel clearly more confident about this time around, and they don’t have enough wiggle room to justify scraping by with holes at three of the four corner positions. San Diego appeared, late in the season, to realize finally that the Eric Hosmer situation wasn’t going to work itself out magically but still hasn’t committed to doing anything significant at first other than “insert coin to try again” like it’s 1993 and it just lost to M. Bison in Street Fighter II. That Nomar Mazara might be part of the left field mess if the season started today is not something a fan should be excited about. Wil Myers reverting to non-2020 form leaves right field as another weak spot, though it may be tough for the Padres to do anything here while also fixing first and left. And ZiPS sees no in-house saviors on the short-term horizon; ask me next year about Robert Hassell III.

Pitchers

The Padres entered the season with a long list of plausible starting pitching candidates, and in the end, it still wasn’t enough. In addition to Mike Clevinger, already known to be out of the season with Tommy John surgery, they lost Dinelson Lamet, Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Chris Paddack, and Adrian Morejon to injury at various times. The season started with Paddack as the fifth starter, but its last whimper featured starts by pitchers such as Jake Arrieta and Vince Velasquez.

The Padres tried to use a deep bullpen to conserve the starting pitching after the shortened 2020 season, but this backfired; they still suffered a rash of injuries, and the bullpen collapsed as well. Through August 10, San Diego relievers led baseball with a 2.89 ERA in 480 1/3 innings — the most innings of any bullpen in the league at that point and far above the MLB average of 415. During San Diego’s season-ending hellscape, that ERA ballooned to over five.

So, what does ZiPS think? It still sees the Padres as having a reasonably deep pitching staff, but one with generally reduced expectations relative to last season. The dream of Lamet throwing 150 innings is probably gone, and both Darvish and Snell have weaker projections than before 2021. Compared to the preseason, I have the Padres’ full rotation about three-to-four wins worse this time around despite losing no significant starting pitcher to free agency and Clevinger returning. It’s still in the top tier, but like the offense, it has less margin of error to work with.

On the positive side, ZiPS remains less down on Paddack than fans and possibly the team are, the computer agreeing with Steamer that he should still be in the team’s plans. ZiPS is also highly intrigued by two quiet signings the Padres made: Nick Martínez to a four-year, $20 million contract, and Robert Suarez to a two-year, $11 million deal. Martínez throws harder these days than you may remember from his time with the Rangers, as he can now hit the mid-90s. Suarez is mostly a fastball-changeup pitcher who can touch the century mark in velocity and has been an elite closer for NPB’s Hanshin Tigers the last two seasons.

The Padres remain contenders in an NL West in which the Giants and Dodgers have both lost considerable talent to free agency, but they still need to be more aggressive than just waiting for the bounce.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Fernando Tatis Jr. R 23 SS 553 482 106 143 28 2 44 111 63 137 31 5
Manny Machado R 29 3B 641 570 83 157 29 2 28 103 61 103 11 3
Jake Cronenworth L 28 2B 596 533 84 147 31 6 17 64 50 88 7 4
Trent Grisham L 25 CF 567 491 72 121 25 5 18 67 66 131 14 4
Ha-Seong Kim 김하성 R 26 SS 465 415 57 97 21 2 14 61 39 95 11 1
Tommy Pham R 34 LF 537 463 70 114 21 2 15 50 68 121 14 5
Austin Nola R 32 C 349 312 37 80 17 1 8 40 28 58 1 1
Luis Campusano R 23 C 410 372 41 90 17 2 13 39 30 89 1 0
Eguy Rosario R 22 SS 504 459 60 107 23 3 12 50 34 122 19 9
C.J. Hinojosa R 27 2B 458 427 54 108 24 1 9 43 24 84 3 2
Wil Myers R 31 RF 479 429 54 104 23 2 17 60 47 140 9 5
Victor Caratini B 28 C 345 305 34 73 12 0 8 38 32 77 2 0
Domingo Leyba B 26 2B 410 375 48 87 19 2 11 47 28 85 1 2
Matt Batten R 27 SS 496 453 59 108 16 2 7 33 38 139 19 5
CJ Abrams L 21 SS 217 199 29 48 10 1 4 22 13 47 11 3
Jurickson Profar B 29 LF 455 398 56 96 21 2 10 47 46 68 10 3
Brian O’Grady L 30 RF 425 378 47 80 18 2 16 48 38 129 10 3
Nick Tanielu R 29 3B 415 380 44 88 20 1 10 39 26 84 2 1
Jake Marisnick R 31 CF 253 230 31 50 11 2 7 28 14 80 6 2
Eric Hosmer L 32 1B 573 522 57 134 24 1 14 72 43 115 4 4
Nomar Mazara L 27 RF 378 346 41 85 16 1 12 49 26 98 1 1
Luis Liberato L 26 CF 366 332 39 75 13 2 8 33 24 97 3 2
Jorge Alfaro R 29 C 382 355 32 85 14 1 10 43 17 123 7 2
Patrick Kivlehan R 32 RF 412 374 47 80 16 2 15 50 27 125 3 2
Webster Rivas R 31 C 258 232 25 52 8 0 5 18 21 59 0 0
John Andreoli R 32 CF 353 306 38 59 13 1 7 27 41 117 7 2
Esteury Ruiz R 23 LF 392 359 44 78 16 1 10 38 23 95 24 7
Robbie Podorsky R 27 CF 156 141 13 32 4 1 2 10 10 32 9 3
Yorman Rodriguez R 24 1B 297 281 28 70 11 1 7 24 13 58 3 3
Kelvin Melean R 23 2B 375 346 45 75 15 1 6 32 21 74 5 3
Ethan Skender R 25 3B 321 293 39 63 11 2 5 26 19 83 4 3
Olivier Basabe R 24 3B 389 357 36 75 13 2 7 31 26 90 4 2
Juan Fernandez R 23 C 307 281 33 60 10 1 9 28 20 67 2 1
José Azocar R 26 CF 542 504 60 119 18 4 9 48 26 138 17 6
Pedro Florimón B 35 SS 372 333 40 63 11 2 6 29 33 127 5 1
Chandler Seagle R 26 C 163 147 16 25 6 0 2 11 9 50 0 0
Ben Ruta L 28 LF 390 355 40 73 15 2 7 31 27 95 12 6
Jorge Oña R 25 LF 174 155 18 33 5 0 5 16 14 60 1 1
Taylor Kohlwey L 27 1B 428 381 55 88 15 2 8 37 35 116 7 4
Zack Mathis L 23 3B 355 329 36 69 13 0 8 26 20 86 2 2
Michael Cantu R 26 C 149 134 16 23 3 0 3 12 12 55 0 0
Michael Curry R 24 LF 337 305 37 60 12 1 8 31 28 104 2 0
Dwanya Williams-Sutton R 24 LF 322 273 36 49 8 1 7 26 33 105 6 3
Agustin Ruiz L 22 RF 497 457 55 95 17 1 16 55 31 146 2 2

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Fernando Tatis Jr. .297 .380 .637 173 .340 .329 9.8 -1 7.6 Alex Rodriguez
Manny Machado .275 .345 .481 125 .205 .294 6.3 2 4.4 Ken Boyer
Jake Cronenworth .276 .345 .452 118 .176 .304 5.8 3 3.9 Jorge Orta
Trent Grisham .246 .339 .428 110 .181 .301 5.3 6 3.7 Trot Nixon
Ha-Seong Kim .234 .305 .395 91 .161 .271 4.5 2 2.0 Dick Schofield
Tommy Pham .246 .346 .397 105 .151 .303 5.0 -2 1.7 Lonnie Smith
Austin Nola .256 .327 .394 98 .138 .293 4.6 -2 1.4 Terry Steinbach
Luis Campusano .242 .306 .403 94 .161 .285 4.4 -5 1.1 Ed Hearn
Eguy Rosario .233 .289 .375 82 .142 .292 3.8 1 1.1 Dave Edler
C.J. Hinojosa .253 .292 .377 83 .124 .296 4.0 4 1.1 Jason Alfaro
Wil Myers .242 .317 .424 102 .182 .320 4.8 -2 1.0 Marty Cordova
Victor Caratini .239 .319 .357 87 .118 .295 4.1 -2 0.8 Larry Gonzales
Domingo Leyba .232 .289 .381 83 .149 .272 3.8 1 0.7 Casey Waller
Matt Batten .238 .298 .329 73 .091 .329 3.7 -1 0.7 Royce Clayton
CJ Abrams .241 .292 .362 79 .121 .297 4.0 2 0.7 Mark Wasinger
Jurickson Profar .241 .328 .379 95 .138 .269 4.5 -3 0.7 Keith Luuloa
Brian O’Grady .212 .288 .397 87 .185 .275 4.0 3 0.7 Nate Murphy
Nick Tanielu .232 .284 .368 78 .137 .273 3.7 2 0.6 Pete Rose Jr.
Jake Marisnick .217 .279 .374 78 .157 .301 3.7 2 0.5 Dewayne Wise
Eric Hosmer .257 .316 .387 93 .130 .305 4.4 -1 0.5 Mule Haas
Nomar Mazara .246 .302 .402 92 .156 .309 4.3 -1 0.4 Ruben Mateo 마테오
Luis Liberato .226 .275 .349 71 .123 .295 3.3 4 0.4 Jason Grove
Jorge Alfaro .239 .291 .369 81 .130 .338 3.9 -6 0.3 Damian Miller
Patrick Kivlehan .214 .276 .388 80 .174 .278 3.6 4 0.3 Dann Howitt
Webster Rivas .224 .293 .323 70 .099 .280 3.3 0 0.3 Mike Matheny
John Andreoli .193 .290 .310 66 .118 .286 3.1 2 0.2 Adam Shabala
Esteury Ruiz .217 .274 .351 71 .134 .268 3.6 4 0.1 Brandon Pico
Robbie Podorsky .227 .286 .312 65 .085 .280 3.3 1 0.0 Kevin Estrada
Yorman Rodriguez .249 .286 .370 79 .121 .292 3.7 2 -0.1 Kevin Haverbusch
Kelvin Melean .217 .270 .318 62 .101 .259 2.9 1 -0.2 Javier Colina
Ethan Skender .215 .275 .317 63 .102 .283 2.9 1 -0.3 Tony Woods
Olivier Basabe .210 .271 .317 62 .106 .262 2.9 1 -0.3 Ryan Stegall
Juan Fernandez .214 .275 .352 71 .139 .249 3.3 -7 -0.3 Jeff Goldbach
José Azocar .236 .276 .341 69 .105 .308 3.4 -3 -0.3 Chris Roberson
Pedro Florimón .189 .264 .288 53 .099 .285 2.6 1 -0.3 Shawn Gilbert
Chandler Seagle .170 .235 .252 35 .082 .242 1.9 2 -0.4 Dave Ullery
Ben Ruta .206 .263 .318 60 .113 .261 2.8 6 -0.4 Phil Dauphin
Jorge Oña .213 .287 .342 73 .129 .311 3.3 -3 -0.4 Dan Dimascio
Taylor Kohlwey .231 .300 .344 77 .113 .311 3.6 -1 -0.4 Kevin Koslofski
Zack Mathis .210 .268 .322 62 .112 .260 2.9 -1 -0.5 Vince Harrison
Michael Cantu .172 .243 .261 40 .090 .263 2.1 -2 -0.6 J.C. Boscan
Michael Curry .197 .268 .321 62 .125 .269 3.0 1 -0.6 Gerad Cawhorn
Dwanya Williams-Sutton .179 .299 .293 65 .114 .261 2.9 -7 -1.1 Billy Deck
Agustin Ruiz .208 .263 .354 68 .147 .268 3.1 -9 -1.8 Scott Neuberger

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Joe Musgrove R 29 12 8 3.51 31 30 171.7 147 67 22 46 190 3.66
Mike Clevinger R 31 8 5 3.45 19 19 112.3 93 43 14 37 123 3.65
Yu Darvish R 35 9 7 3.87 26 26 144.3 125 62 21 44 163 3.89
Blake Snell L 29 8 6 3.67 25 25 122.7 97 50 16 55 156 3.73
Nick Martínez R 31 8 6 3.79 21 21 126.0 114 53 13 43 124 3.62
Chris Paddack R 26 9 7 4.05 25 24 126.7 119 57 21 28 126 4.13
Adrian Martinez R 25 6 6 4.27 27 19 111.7 112 53 13 41 91 4.33
Dinelson Lamet R 29 4 3 3.79 20 12 61.7 52 26 8 27 76 3.91
Jesse Scholtens R 28 6 6 4.49 22 20 104.3 105 52 15 37 94 4.48
Craig Stammen R 38 6 4 3.47 60 2 72.7 68 28 7 15 66 3.36
Matt Strahm L 30 5 4 3.84 35 8 68.0 65 29 9 15 65 3.87
Robert Suarez R 31 2 1 3.48 50 1 54.3 48 21 6 17 57 3.57
Tim Hill L 32 6 4 3.51 73 0 56.3 50 22 6 19 56 3.85
Jake Arrieta R 36 8 9 4.78 21 21 101.7 109 54 15 42 79 4.93
Vince Velasquez R 30 6 7 4.79 30 24 107.0 100 57 19 47 120 4.73
Nabil Crismatt R 27 4 4 4.41 40 8 100.0 99 49 17 32 96 4.61
Matt Waldron R 25 5 5 4.79 19 17 92.0 98 49 13 35 68 4.88
Tom Cosgrove L 26 2 2 4.36 21 8 53.7 53 26 6 23 47 4.34
Pierce Johnson R 31 4 3 3.74 60 1 55.3 45 23 7 24 70 3.65
Ethan Elliott L 25 2 2 4.66 15 15 63.7 66 33 11 19 53 4.84
Steven Wilson R 27 3 2 3.57 33 0 45.3 36 18 6 20 60 3.71
Moises Lugo R 23 4 5 4.83 24 19 85.7 88 46 13 38 73 4.95
Pedro Avila R 25 3 3 4.58 33 11 70.7 69 36 10 33 65 4.79
Austin Adams R 31 2 2 3.53 35 0 35.7 28 14 4 21 49 3.99
Jacob Nix R 26 3 3 4.53 10 10 45.7 49 23 7 14 38 4.56
MacKenzie Gore L 23 3 3 4.76 14 14 58.7 58 31 8 28 54 4.70
Alex Powers R 30 2 2 4.02 36 2 47.0 42 21 7 20 53 4.27
Evan Miller R 27 4 4 4.38 42 3 76.0 74 37 10 28 71 4.29
Luke Westphal L 33 3 3 4.72 17 10 47.7 45 25 7 25 48 4.84
Drew Pomeranz L 33 2 2 3.92 44 0 39.0 32 17 4 21 49 3.69
James Norwood R 28 4 3 4.05 50 0 53.3 45 24 7 31 68 4.19
Parker Markel 마켈 R 31 2 2 4.11 42 0 57.0 46 26 6 39 80 3.95
Ryan Weathers L 22 5 6 5.06 30 20 99.7 107 56 16 36 73 4.98
Keone Kela R 29 2 2 3.86 28 0 25.7 21 11 4 9 34 3.61
Reiss Knehr R 25 5 7 5.13 30 20 93.0 95 53 14 47 76 5.21
Michel Baez R 26 3 3 4.19 34 0 43.0 39 20 5 24 44 4.53
Emilio Pagán R 31 3 3 4.28 63 0 61.0 53 29 12 20 73 4.43
Jordan Brink R 29 2 2 4.41 30 1 49.0 48 24 6 22 43 4.55
Adrian Morejon L 23 1 1 3.72 15 0 9.7 8 4 1 4 12 3.28
Brett Kennedy R 27 4 5 5.20 16 14 64.0 69 37 10 28 49 5.13
Javy Guerra R 26 1 1 4.36 55 0 53.7 51 26 7 20 48 4.26
Reggie Lawson R 24 1 1 5.11 5 5 12.3 12 7 2 7 11 5.21
Heath Fillmyer R 28 5 6 5.24 24 17 87.7 90 51 15 41 73 5.28
Aaron Leasher L 26 5 7 5.27 19 16 82.0 86 48 13 40 65 5.30
Ross Detwiler L 36 3 3 5.01 38 9 64.7 66 36 12 24 57 5.17
Dan Altavilla R 29 3 3 4.50 33 0 30.0 24 15 5 19 39 4.75
Miguel Diaz R 27 4 4 4.95 36 6 60.0 56 33 10 32 62 4.98
Luis García R 35 2 2 4.70 50 1 46.0 42 24 7 22 49 4.66
Jose Quezada R 26 2 2 4.61 47 0 52.7 51 27 7 27 51 4.68
Brandon Komar R 23 4 5 5.06 30 5 74.7 78 42 10 38 59 5.07
Ray Kerr L 27 4 6 5.28 32 12 76.7 79 45 11 45 66 5.28
James Reeves L 29 2 2 4.67 37 0 52.0 46 27 7 33 58 4.78
Sam McWilliams R 26 5 7 5.25 31 10 85.7 89 50 13 44 71 5.18
Chase Johnson R 30 2 3 5.22 25 4 50.0 52 29 6 31 36 5.34
Henry Henry R 23 2 2 4.68 40 0 67.3 70 35 8 30 48 4.77
Osvaldo Hernandez L 24 5 7 5.53 22 21 96.0 113 59 19 30 61 5.58
Daniel Camarena L 29 5 8 5.50 24 18 93.3 104 57 18 33 71 5.36
Joe Beimel L 45 1 2 5.34 29 1 28.7 31 17 5 11 20 5.41
Mason Fox R 25 2 3 5.21 26 1 38.0 36 22 6 25 38 5.36
Aaron Northcraft R 32 1 2 5.62 21 0 24.0 25 15 4 14 18 5.72
Grant Gavin R 26 4 4 4.97 47 0 67.0 62 37 12 35 74 5.05
Lake Bachar R 27 5 7 5.71 24 19 112.0 117 71 20 69 97 5.78
Jerry Keel L 28 5 8 5.81 25 19 110.0 126 71 22 45 77 5.77
Kyle McGrath L 29 2 4 6.19 28 5 48.0 56 33 11 20 31 6.24

Pitchers – Standard
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Joe Musgrove 10.0 2.4 1.2 6.5% 26.8% .285 118 85 3.5 Javier Vazquez
Mike Clevinger 9.9 3.0 1.1 8.0% 26.6% .276 121 83 2.4 Alex Fernandez
Yu Darvish 10.2 2.7 1.3 7.3% 27.1% .285 107 93 2.4 Mike Krukow
Blake Snell 11.4 4.0 1.2 10.7% 30.3% .283 113 88 2.3 Sam McDowell
Nick Martínez 8.9 3.1 0.9 8.1% 23.5% .292 110 91 2.1 Rick Rhoden
Chris Paddack 9.0 2.0 1.5 5.4% 24.1% .286 103 97 1.8 Steve Woodard
Adrian Martinez 7.3 3.3 1.0 8.4% 18.7% .296 97 103 1.3 Bill Long
Dinelson Lamet 11.1 3.9 1.2 10.2% 28.8% .295 109 91 1.0 Steve Farr
Jesse Scholtens 8.1 3.2 1.3 8.1% 20.7% .298 93 108 1.0 Mike Birkbeck
Craig Stammen 8.2 1.9 0.9 5.0% 22.1% .293 120 83 1.0 Todd Jones
Matt Strahm 8.6 2.0 1.2 5.3% 22.9% .295 108 92 0.9 Gil Heredia
Robert Suarez 9.4 2.8 1.0 7.5% 25.2% .292 119 84 0.7 Donnie Moore
Tim Hill 8.9 3.0 1.0 7.9% 23.4% .288 118 85 0.7 Gary Lucas
Jake Arrieta 7.0 3.7 1.3 9.3% 17.4% .301 87 115 0.6 Steve Parris
Vince Velasquez 10.1 4.0 1.6 10.1% 25.7% .295 87 115 0.6 Joel Bennett
Nabil Crismatt 8.6 2.9 1.5 7.4% 22.3% .294 94 106 0.6 Kris Wilson 윌슨
Matt Waldron 6.7 3.4 1.3 8.6% 16.7% .297 87 115 0.5 Joe Housey
Tom Cosgrove 7.9 3.9 1.0 9.7% 19.9% .299 95 105 0.5 Lenny DiNardo
Pierce Johnson 11.4 3.9 1.1 10.3% 30.0% .290 111 90 0.5 Jason Frasor
Ethan Elliott 7.5 2.7 1.6 6.9% 19.3% .293 89 112 0.5 Derek Lilliquist
Steven Wilson 11.9 4.0 1.2 10.5% 31.4% .291 116 86 0.5 Rich Garces
Moises Lugo 7.7 4.0 1.4 9.9% 19.1% .296 86 116 0.4 Clemente Nunez
Pedro Avila 8.3 4.2 1.3 10.5% 20.7% .294 91 110 0.4 Blaine Boyer
Austin Adams 12.4 5.3 1.0 13.3% 31.0% .300 118 85 0.4 Jim Kern
Jacob Nix 7.5 2.8 1.4 7.0% 19.1% .304 92 109 0.4 Shawn Hill
MacKenzie Gore 8.3 4.3 1.2 10.7% 20.7% .298 87 114 0.4 Chris Pollack
Alex Powers 10.1 3.8 1.3 9.9% 26.2% .292 103 97 0.4 John Johnstone
Evan Miller 8.4 3.3 1.2 8.5% 21.6% .296 95 105 0.3 Randy Messenger
Luke Westphal 9.1 4.7 1.3 11.7% 22.5% .292 88 114 0.3 Kent Mercker
Drew Pomeranz 11.3 4.8 0.9 12.4% 29.0% .298 106 94 0.2 Rod Scurry
James Norwood 11.5 5.2 1.2 13.2% 28.9% .299 103 97 0.2 Jorge Vasquez
Parker Markel 12.6 6.2 0.9 15.2% 31.3% .313 101 99 0.2 Mark Clear
Ryan Weathers 6.6 3.3 1.4 8.2% 16.7% .294 82 122 0.2 Andrew Lorraine
Keone Kela 11.9 3.2 1.4 8.5% 32.1% .288 108 93 0.2 Kerry Ligtenberg
Reiss Knehr 7.4 4.5 1.4 11.2% 18.1% .292 81 123 0.1 Allen Edwards
Michel Baez 9.2 5.0 1.0 12.5% 22.9% .293 99 101 0.1 Wayne Nix
Emilio Pagán 10.8 3.0 1.8 7.9% 28.7% .279 97 103 0.1 Luis Vizcaino
Jordan Brink 7.9 4.0 1.1 10.2% 19.9% .296 94 106 0.1 Blake Mayo
Adrian Morejon 11.2 3.7 0.9 10.0% 30.0% .304 112 90 0.1 Felix Heredia
Brett Kennedy 6.9 3.9 1.4 9.8% 17.1% .299 80 125 0.1 Bill Swift
Javy Guerra 8.0 3.4 1.2 8.7% 21.0% .288 95 105 0.0 Brent Knackert
Reggie Lawson 8.0 5.1 1.5 12.7% 20.0% .286 81 123 0.0 Darren Holmes
Heath Fillmyer 7.5 4.2 1.5 10.5% 18.6% .290 79 126 0.0 Sean Lowe
Aaron Leasher 7.1 4.4 1.4 10.8% 17.5% .294 79 127 0.0 Trever Miller
Ross Detwiler 7.9 3.3 1.7 8.5% 20.1% .290 83 121 0.0 Travis Driskill
Dan Altavilla 11.7 5.7 1.5 14.4% 29.5% .279 92 108 0.0 Dwayne Henry
Miguel Diaz 9.3 4.8 1.5 12.0% 23.3% .288 84 119 0.0 Doug Thompson
Luis García 9.6 4.3 1.4 10.9% 24.3% .289 88 113 -0.1 Scott Service
Jose Quezada 8.7 4.6 1.2 11.5% 21.7% .299 90 111 -0.1 Heathcliff Slocumb
Brandon Komar 7.1 4.6 1.2 11.2% 17.4% .300 82 122 -0.1 Jason Szuminski
Ray Kerr 7.7 5.3 1.3 12.7% 18.7% .301 79 127 -0.2 Roger Samuels
James Reeves 10.0 5.7 1.2 14.0% 24.7% .291 89 112 -0.2 Kevin Tolar
Sam McWilliams 7.5 4.6 1.4 11.3% 18.3% .297 79 126 -0.2 Andy Shipman
Chase Johnson 6.5 5.6 1.1 13.4% 15.5% .295 80 126 -0.2 Jarod Juelsgaard
Henry Henry 6.4 4.0 1.1 10.0% 16.0% .294 89 113 -0.2 Jack Cassel
Osvaldo Hernandez 5.7 2.8 1.8 7.0% 14.3% .300 75 133 -0.3 Jeff Urban
Daniel Camarena 6.8 3.2 1.7 8.0% 17.1% .299 76 132 -0.3 Jamie Walker
Joe Beimel 6.3 3.5 1.6 8.6% 15.6% .289 78 128 -0.3 Boom-Boom Beck
Mason Fox 9.0 5.9 1.4 14.4% 21.8% .291 80 125 -0.3 Jeff Smith
Aaron Northcraft 6.8 5.3 1.5 12.7% 16.4% .288 74 135 -0.3 Craig McMurtry
Grant Gavin 9.9 4.7 1.6 11.7% 24.8% .289 84 120 -0.5 Grant Balfour
Lake Bachar 7.8 5.5 1.6 13.3% 18.7% .296 73 137 -0.6 Cory Morris
Jerry Keel 6.3 3.7 1.8 9.0% 15.5% .299 72 140 -0.7 Sam McConnell
Kyle McGrath 5.8 3.8 2.1 9.2% 14.2% .292 67 149 -0.7 Corey Hamman

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Buhners Rocket Armmember
10 months ago

Dan, I have a question about how Zips calculates ERA. I would expect that for the most part an entire staff should have a fairly similar difference between ERA and FIP, but this is not the case. Does Zips consider quality of specific fielders at various positions relative to the expected GB/FB ratio of each individual pitcher?