2023 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the New York Yankees.

Batters

It’s really hard to be a lousy offense with Aaron Judge, and it’s really hard to be a great one without him. The Yankees were not otherwise stacked — or destitute — enough to buck that reality. With the return of their franchise slugger, if the Yankee offense doesn’t lead the American League in runs scored, it shouldn’t miss by a lot. The Yankees led the AL in runs scored last year and outside of Judge, they really didn’t get any standout, star-level offensive performances (other than Matt Carpenter, but that was only 154 plate appearances).

The offense is about to enter a bit of a transition phase. Looking at the lineup, Judge and Giancarlo Stanton may be the only players still on the team in three years, and even then, Stanton may be even more of a bit player than he is now. Stanton’s definitely off his peak and Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu are into their decline years. Josh Donaldson will likely be gone after 2023 — probably a year too late in the opinion of many Yankees fans — as will Harrison Bader. Isiah Kiner-Falefa got too much flak in 2022 by virtue of being a stopgap who played like one, but we’ll soon start to see Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe take over the shortstop job, with the loser of that duel the likely successor to Gleyber Torres at second.

One thing to note is that the roster does have some injury risk as currently constructed. There’s a lot riding on Judge, and the team’s depth thins out considerably once you get past the players likely to be on the major league roster. We’ll probably have some non-roster invitee action here in the coming weeks, but that’s information I don’t have yet!

Pitchers

Judge may get the most press, but the Yankee rotation is downright terrifying. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are as frightening a one-two as the crosstown rival Mets have, and they’re likely to be around a lot longer. ZiPS is finally a full believer in Nestor Cortes, and both Frankie Montas and Luis Severino have solid projections that only look light because of the projected inning totals. Domingo Germán is one of the better sixth starters around, and ZiPS likes the team’s Triple-A depth of below-average-but-above-replacement starters better than the parallel fill-ins available on the offensive side. Unless Tommy John surgery becomes an unfortunate trend in the Bronx, I expect the Yankees are more likely to add a hitter at the deadline than another pitcher. Long-term, ZiPS is kinda fascinated by the upside of Clayton Beeter, and it would be amusing to me if he were on the roster in a World Series in which the Yankees were beating Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.

The bullpen isn’t quite at the same level that it was at its peak from a few years ago when the Yankees seemed to employ half of the league’s closers, but the group remains solid despite a relative lack of marquee names. ZiPS projects nearly the entire likely relief corps to be above average and is especially in on Ron Marinaccio. (The team likely feels similarly or Lucas Luetge wouldn’t be in Atlanta right now.) The one thing the Yankees could still use is another lefty reliever — as of right now, Wandy Peralta is the bullpen’s only southpaw.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Aaron Judge R 31 RF 643 543 106 152 24 0 46 120 91 168 9 2
DJ LeMahieu R 34 3B 569 506 76 138 22 1 12 60 57 77 4 2
Harrison Bader R 29 CF 395 356 52 89 17 2 13 50 30 92 13 3
Anthony Volpe R 22 SS 592 521 80 122 31 4 17 77 53 139 24 6
Gleyber Torres R 26 2B 584 526 73 136 26 1 22 79 50 123 9 4
Josh Donaldson R 37 3B 495 426 59 95 21 0 19 58 58 130 1 1
Oswald Peraza R 23 SS 497 457 60 111 18 1 15 62 31 123 22 5
Anthony Rizzo L 33 1B 536 457 68 108 21 1 23 72 54 94 5 3
Giancarlo Stanton R 33 DH 522 460 56 111 17 0 30 85 56 146 0 1
Rafael Ortega L 32 CF 412 365 49 92 19 2 11 42 42 87 11 6
Oswaldo Cabrera B 24 2B 478 437 54 100 23 2 15 59 34 132 10 5
Jose Trevino R 30 C 330 312 32 72 15 1 7 38 13 61 1 1
Kyle Higashioka R 33 C 254 234 28 51 11 0 11 34 16 63 0 1
Austin Wells L 23 C 423 373 49 81 15 2 13 55 41 120 7 1
Trey Sweeney L 23 SS 469 424 59 89 15 4 12 51 40 132 12 2
Caleb Durbin R 23 2B 436 388 57 90 18 2 5 44 31 60 13 3
Andres Chaparro R 24 3B 359 322 38 74 14 1 12 49 28 89 2 1
Jasson Domínguez B 20 CF 505 454 63 96 17 4 11 55 44 159 15 4
Ryan LaMarre R 34 RF 291 258 31 60 11 2 6 35 24 85 8 4
Jesus Bastidas R 24 2B 402 362 46 77 13 2 11 48 28 120 6 4
Elijah Dunham L 25 LF 450 403 54 90 22 2 11 54 39 116 17 4
Aaron Hicks B 33 CF 366 312 45 67 11 1 9 35 49 90 6 2
Ben Rortvedt L 25 C 251 226 24 45 9 0 7 28 19 80 0 1
Chris Owings R 31 2B 285 257 30 52 11 2 7 28 24 96 5 3
Willie Calhoun L 28 DH 370 333 44 80 14 1 12 48 32 54 0 1
Estevan Florial L 25 CF 470 423 61 89 20 1 12 52 42 163 18 7
Isiah Kiner-Falefa R 28 SS 549 505 61 127 20 2 6 50 31 77 17 4
Wilmer Difo B 31 SS 331 305 35 78 12 2 4 31 22 66 3 2
Ronald Guzmán L 28 1B 369 329 42 68 17 0 13 48 33 115 1 1
Brandon Lockridge R 26 CF 422 390 49 85 15 1 10 48 25 133 11 3
Billy McKinney L 28 RF 365 327 39 65 14 3 10 47 33 109 1 1
Anthony Seigler B 24 C 362 306 41 61 15 1 5 31 49 98 5 4
Rodolfo Durán R 25 C 215 206 18 43 10 0 6 22 7 60 0 1
Michael Hermosillo R 28 CF 240 207 31 43 8 2 6 32 20 79 5 2
Greg Bird L 30 1B 341 303 29 62 11 1 10 36 32 99 1 1
Benjamin Cowles R 23 2B 323 291 29 55 12 2 5 35 25 123 5 3
Jamie Westbrook R 28 DH 462 413 54 97 17 1 11 64 34 85 1 1
Jeisson Rosario L 23 CF 460 406 41 85 15 2 6 44 48 117 7 5
Everson Pereira R 22 CF 430 396 56 85 13 5 13 53 30 143 9 5
Max Burt R 26 3B 303 281 33 56 12 0 6 32 16 99 8 1
Matt Pita R 26 LF 174 159 19 31 8 0 5 20 10 55 4 2
Derek Dietrich L 33 2B 284 241 30 41 9 1 8 36 23 96 0 1
Pablo Olivares R 25 LF 343 306 33 66 14 1 1 30 26 68 7 6
Delvin Perez R 24 3B 420 387 46 82 11 2 3 36 25 126 13 3
Marwin Gonzalez B 34 SS 315 284 30 59 10 0 8 30 21 80 3 1
Mickey Gasper B 27 1B 237 203 26 45 9 1 5 30 25 57 2 1
Josh Breaux R 25 C 380 356 35 73 15 1 13 44 21 121 1 1
Michael Beltre B 27 RF 366 328 43 67 12 3 7 38 33 115 16 3
Jake Bauers L 27 1B 358 315 33 64 11 1 8 33 40 108 7 3
Aaron Palensky R 24 LF 237 210 25 38 10 2 5 28 22 86 3 2
Eric Wagaman R 25 1B 279 254 23 54 11 1 6 28 21 69 1 1
Chad Bell채드벨 L 26 1B 374 343 35 67 9 1 12 41 29 155 1 1
T.J. Rumfield L 23 1B 218 195 18 42 7 0 2 19 19 49 1 1
Tyler Hardman R 24 3B 418 384 39 76 12 1 14 51 25 147 6 3
Evan Alexander L 25 CF 159 141 19 23 4 1 1 11 16 62 5 2
Cristian Perez R 24 SS 259 244 24 50 7 0 0 16 11 56 4 2
Marcos Cabrera R 21 3B 372 335 37 55 7 1 11 39 30 167 8 5
Aldenis Sanchez R 24 LF 322 292 31 56 8 2 1 25 25 104 14 6
Anthony Garcia B 22 1B 369 316 42 50 6 1 13 40 51 183 9 3
James Nelson R 25 3B 326 297 24 55 9 0 3 26 23 107 7 4
Alexander Vargas B 21 SS 408 379 50 71 12 1 6 33 23 144 13 9

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Aaron Judge 643 .280 .386 .578 164 .298 .322 11 7.4 .402
DJ LeMahieu 569 .273 .348 .391 106 .119 .302 10 3.7 .325
Harrison Bader 395 .250 .319 .419 104 .169 .303 13 3.2 .319
Anthony Volpe 592 .234 .318 .407 100 .173 .288 1 3.1 .316
Gleyber Torres 584 .259 .324 .437 110 .179 .299 -1 2.9 .328
Josh Donaldson 495 .223 .321 .406 101 .183 .274 3 2.3 .317
Oswald Peraza 497 .243 .300 .385 90 .142 .301 3 2.1 .300
Anthony Rizzo 536 .236 .343 .438 116 .201 .250 1 2.1 .339
Giancarlo Stanton 522 .241 .326 .474 119 .233 .285 0 2.1 .342
Rafael Ortega 412 .252 .331 .405 101 .153 .303 3 2.0 .321
Oswaldo Cabrera 478 .229 .286 .394 87 .165 .293 4 1.4 .294
Jose Trevino 330 .231 .261 .353 69 .122 .266 10 1.3 .265
Kyle Higashioka 254 .218 .269 .406 85 .188 .250 5 1.1 .290
Austin Wells 423 .217 .303 .373 87 .155 .283 -4 1.1 .297
Trey Sweeney 469 .210 .286 .349 76 .139 .275 1 1.1 .280
Caleb Durbin 436 .232 .310 .327 78 .095 .263 3 1.0 .285
Andres Chaparro 359 .230 .304 .391 92 .161 .281 0 1.0 .304
Jasson Domínguez 505 .211 .287 .339 74 .128 .299 4 0.9 .277
Ryan LaMarre 291 .233 .316 .360 89 .128 .323 5 0.8 .300
Jesus Bastidas 402 .213 .286 .351 77 .138 .286 2 0.6 .281
Elijah Dunham 450 .223 .300 .370 86 .146 .286 2 0.6 .294
Aaron Hicks 366 .215 .323 .343 87 .128 .272 -4 0.5 .297
Ben Rortvedt 251 .199 .272 .332 68 .133 .273 3 0.5 .266
Chris Owings 285 .202 .275 .342 71 .140 .292 4 0.4 .272
Willie Calhoun 370 .240 .311 .396 96 .156 .255 0 0.4 .309
Estevan Florial 470 .210 .284 .348 75 .137 .310 0 0.4 .277
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 549 .251 .303 .335 78 .083 .287 -9 0.2 .281
Wilmer Difo 331 .256 .303 .348 79 .092 .315 -2 0.4 .284
Ronald Guzmán 369 .207 .285 .377 83 .170 .274 3 0.1 .289
Brandon Lockridge 422 .218 .273 .338 69 .121 .304 0 0.1 .268
Billy McKinney 365 .199 .277 .352 74 .153 .264 5 0.0 .274
Anthony Seigler 362 .199 .312 .304 74 .105 .276 -7 0.0 .281
Rodolfo Durán 215 .209 .237 .345 60 .136 .264 1 0.0 .251
Michael Hermosillo 240 .208 .305 .353 80 .145 .303 -4 0.1 .293
Greg Bird 341 .205 .284 .347 75 .142 .268 4 -0.1 .279
Benjamin Cowles 323 .189 .266 .296 57 .107 .307 4 -0.1 .252
Jamie Westbrook 462 .235 .305 .361 85 .126 .271 0 -0.1 .292
Jeisson Rosario 460 .209 .298 .300 68 .091 .279 -2 -0.2 .271
Everson Pereira 430 .215 .274 .371 78 .157 .300 -6 -0.2 .280
Max Burt 303 .199 .251 .306 55 .107 .284 3 -0.3 .246
Matt Pita 174 .195 .259 .340 65 .145 .263 1 -0.3 .263
Derek Dietrich 284 .170 .292 .315 70 .145 .241 -4 -0.3 .277
Pablo Olivares 343 .216 .297 .278 62 .062 .274 6 -0.3 .263
Delvin Perez 420 .212 .270 .274 53 .062 .306 4 -0.3 .245
Marwin Gonzalez 315 .208 .275 .327 67 .120 .260 -5 -0.4 .267
Mickey Gasper 237 .222 .325 .350 89 .128 .284 -5 -0.4 .302
Josh Breaux 380 .205 .250 .362 68 .157 .270 -7 -0.5 .263
Michael Beltre 366 .204 .281 .323 69 .119 .291 -1 -0.5 .269
Jake Bauers 358 .203 .296 .321 73 .117 .281 -1 -0.5 .277
Aaron Palensky 237 .181 .274 .319 65 .138 .277 -1 -0.6 .266
Eric Wagaman 279 .213 .276 .335 70 .122 .268 0 -0.6 .269
Chad Bell 374 .195 .259 .332 64 .137 .313 5 -0.6 .259
T.J. Rumfield 218 .215 .294 .282 62 .067 .278 -1 -0.7 .260
Tyler Hardman 418 .198 .249 .344 63 .146 .278 -4 -0.9 .257
Evan Alexander 159 .163 .258 .227 37 .064 .282 -3 -0.9 .227
Cristian Perez 259 .205 .244 .234 35 .029 .266 1 -0.9 .216
Marcos Cabrera 372 .164 .245 .290 49 .125 .280 -2 -1.2 .240
Aldenis Sanchez 322 .192 .264 .243 43 .051 .294 3 -1.2 .233
Anthony Garcia 369 .158 .276 .307 63 .149 .308 -4 -1.3 .264
James Nelson 326 .185 .252 .246 40 .061 .278 -5 -1.7 .227
Alexander Vargas 408 .187 .238 .272 42 .084 .284 -11 -2.4 .227

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Aaron Judge Pedro Guerrero Jack Fournier Mickey Mantle
DJ LeMahieu Joe Sewell Harvey Kuenn Ron Hunt
Harrison Bader Kevin Kiermaier Deion Sanders Dwight Smith
Anthony Volpe Adrian Beltre Chet Lemon Danny Tartabull
Gleyber Torres Neil Walker Marcus Giles Carney Lansford
Josh Donaldson Robin Ventura Bob Elliott Jay Bell
Oswald Peraza Chad Curtis Andrés Giménez Brandon Phillips
Anthony Rizzo Norm Cash Kent Hrbek Edwin Encarnación
Giancarlo Stanton Boog Powell John Jaha Jeff Conine
Rafael Ortega Stan Javier Pat Kelly Dom DiMaggio
Oswaldo Cabrera Gene Freese Frank Bolling Brett Auerbach
Jose Trevino Chris Heintz Bryan Holaday Rene Friol
Kyle Higashioka Bob Schmidt Todd Greene Rod Barajas
Austin Wells Earl Averill Joe Ferguson Aldo Pecorilli
Trey Sweeney Eric Riggs Ryan Klosterman Miguel Tejada
Caleb Durbin Kramer Robertson Jonny Tucker Mike Woodard
Andres Chaparro Tim Naehring Sal Bando Ken McMullen
Jasson Domínguez Bobby Thompson Chris Latham Clay Fuller
Ryan LaMarre Lee Lacy Al Bumbry Chris Dickerson
Jesus Bastidas Joe Jester Joseph Spagnuolo Steve Gerlecz
Elijah Dunham Frankie George Domonic Brown Raymond Alonzo
Aaron Hicks Willie Harris Kosuke Fukudome F.P. Santangelo
Ben Rortvedt Andy Beasley Jorge Saez Al Liebert
Chris Owings Dave Matranga Elliot Johnson Reggie Thomas
Willie Calhoun Fred Hopke Casey Kotchman Ed Kranepool
Estevan Florial Rod Myers Jose Gonzalez Bradley Zimmer
Isiah Kiner-Falefa Kevin Newman Horace Clarke Omar Vizquel
Wilmer Difo Ramon Santiago Anderson Hernandez Edgar Caceres 캐세레스
Ronald Guzmán Ron Wright Jeff Kipila Cody Asche
Brandon Lockridge Robert Bryant Carlos Valderrama Dick Berardino
Billy McKinney Kevin Burns Jeff Guiel George Kopacz
Anthony Seigler James Skelton Mark Johnson Chris Turner
Rodolfo Durán John Murrian Justin Dalles Jeff Datz
Michael Hermosillo Ken Williams Peter Bourjos Chris Powell
Greg Bird Preston Ward Larry Wolfe Brandon Allen
Benjamin Cowles Marlan Coughtry Gary Perez Jay Woolf
Jamie Westbrook Hal Bevan Dennis Colon Brick Smith
Jeisson Rosario Dan Marple Troy Thomas Joey Rickard
Everson Pereira Reggie Sanders Sonny Johnson Byron Buxton
Max Burt John Welch Brandon Johnson Mike Benjamin
Matt Pita Wilman Rodriguez Darontaye Hollins Colin Roberson
Derek Dietrich Jeff Branson Mel Hoderlein Steve Scarsone
Pablo Olivares Corey Bird Sergio Garcia Larry Reynolds
Delvin Perez Chris Moritz Chris Bisson Francisco Martinez
Marwin Gonzalez Clint Barmes Luis Lopez Doug Strange
Mickey Gasper Ed Jurak Matt Carpenter Mike Page
Josh Breaux Danny Lamar Bill Hayes Ben Johnson
Michael Beltre Mike Loggins Greg Howe Adam Heisler
Jake Bauers Oscar Grimes Randy Curtis Ed Sedar
Aaron Palensky Drew Rundle Rainel Rosario Bobby Brown
Eric Wagaman Bill Sandry Darin Everson Fred Blair
Chad Bell Joe Gerber Cressy Pratt Oliverio Sparks
T.J. Rumfield Robert Gustafson Barry Shifflett Will Thompson
Tyler Hardman Chris Curley James Brunette Joe Moock
Evan Alexander Marcos Derkes Saige Jenco Brian Teeters
Cristian Perez T.J. Runnells Bert Higgins Richard Arias
Marcos Cabrera Tony Woods Adam Piatt James Lampe
Aldenis Sanchez Vance Vizcaino Terrance Gore Mike Sansoe
Anthony Garcia Sean Reynolds Gary Geiger Joe Ferguson
James Nelson Henry Jones Carey Ross Bob Hegman
Alexander Vargas Marten Gasparini Corey Ragsdale Jordy Barley

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Aaron Judge .305 .413 .652 188 9.2 .251 .357 .514 139 5.4
DJ LeMahieu .301 .378 .427 123 4.9 .247 .322 .346 88 2.3
Harrison Bader .273 .344 .467 122 4.1 .225 .292 .368 86 2.3
Anthony Volpe .262 .341 .463 120 4.4 .212 .292 .358 81 1.6
Gleyber Torres .279 .350 .493 129 4.2 .230 .295 .386 91 1.4
Josh Donaldson .248 .346 .462 119 3.3 .199 .294 .354 80 1.0
Oswald Peraza .268 .325 .437 108 3.3 .217 .274 .334 72 1.0
Anthony Rizzo .257 .362 .485 131 3.1 .215 .322 .391 99 0.9
Giancarlo Stanton .263 .348 .525 139 3.3 .215 .302 .416 100 0.8
Rafael Ortega .279 .357 .454 119 2.9 .224 .304 .354 81 0.9
Oswaldo Cabrera .254 .309 .444 107 2.6 .205 .258 .348 69 0.3
Jose Trevino .261 .294 .403 90 2.2 .205 .237 .300 51 0.5
Kyle Higashioka .240 .292 .464 107 1.9 .191 .243 .347 63 0.4
Austin Wells .245 .330 .434 109 2.2 .191 .274 .328 68 0.1
Trey Sweeney .236 .308 .401 95 2.2 .186 .257 .307 59 0.1
Caleb Durbin .259 .333 .373 95 2.0 .207 .283 .286 61 0.1
Andres Chaparro .255 .327 .439 111 1.9 .207 .282 .348 75 0.2
Jasson Domínguez .233 .311 .379 90 2.0 .189 .264 .301 61 -0.1
Ryan LaMarre .256 .342 .410 109 1.6 .207 .291 .319 72 0.2
Jesus Bastidas .240 .314 .400 96 1.5 .187 .265 .302 57 -0.4
Elijah Dunham .246 .323 .416 104 1.6 .197 .273 .323 67 -0.5
Aaron Hicks .241 .352 .395 108 1.4 .191 .295 .288 68 -0.4
Ben Rortvedt .227 .303 .382 88 1.1 .170 .242 .287 46 -0.2
Chris Owings .231 .305 .397 92 1.2 .176 .251 .298 53 -0.2
Willie Calhoun .267 .335 .449 115 1.3 .217 .285 .346 76 -0.5
Estevan Florial .235 .308 .400 95 1.5 .183 .256 .303 55 -0.9
Isiah Kiner-Falefa .278 .328 .369 94 1.3 .223 .274 .295 59 -1.2
Wilmer Difo .287 .334 .395 100 1.2 .227 .275 .307 62 -0.3
Ronald Guzmán .230 .308 .430 102 1.0 .181 .257 .327 64 -0.8
Brandon Lockridge .244 .297 .380 87 1.0 .194 .244 .298 51 -0.9
Billy McKinney .223 .304 .400 92 0.8 .175 .247 .310 56 -0.9
Anthony Seigler .225 .346 .354 92 0.9 .171 .283 .266 57 -0.8
Rodolfo Durán .239 .268 .402 83 0.6 .180 .209 .295 39 -0.6
Michael Hermosillo .237 .334 .403 101 0.6 .184 .279 .308 61 -0.5
Greg Bird .227 .314 .396 95 0.8 .176 .258 .292 55 -0.9
Benjamin Cowles .214 .290 .345 76 0.7 .165 .243 .254 40 -0.8
Jamie Westbrook .260 .329 .408 105 1.0 .207 .281 .323 69 -1.0
Jeisson Rosario .235 .322 .343 85 0.7 .187 .274 .262 52 -1.1
Everson Pereira .236 .300 .418 96 0.7 .191 .250 .327 61 -1.3
Max Burt .226 .276 .351 72 0.4 .175 .221 .261 35 -1.0
Matt Pita .221 .289 .386 85 0.2 .168 .231 .289 44 -0.7
Derek Dietrich .197 .314 .365 90 0.4 .148 .268 .264 51 -0.9
Pablo Olivares .242 .321 .317 78 0.4 .191 .274 .247 48 -0.9
Delvin Perez .240 .299 .316 70 0.6 .186 .246 .242 36 -1.2
Marwin Gonzalez .230 .298 .371 84 0.4 .183 .253 .286 51 -1.0
Mickey Gasper .247 .349 .396 106 0.1 .196 .298 .308 72 -0.9
Josh Breaux .231 .282 .413 89 0.6 .181 .226 .311 48 -1.4
Michael Beltre .230 .306 .373 87 0.3 .176 .252 .279 49 -1.4
Jake Bauers .229 .325 .369 92 0.3 .174 .267 .281 54 -1.5
Aaron Palensky .207 .300 .371 83 0.0 .155 .248 .273 47 -1.1
Eric Wagaman .240 .300 .392 90 0.1 .186 .251 .284 49 -1.3
Chad Bell .220 .288 .376 82 0.2 .168 .236 .282 45 -1.5
T.J. Rumfield .241 .319 .319 79 -0.3 .193 .272 .250 49 -1.2
Tyler Hardman .222 .273 .392 82 0.1 .177 .226 .299 46 -1.9
Evan Alexander .189 .286 .266 55 -0.5 .137 .234 .193 22 -1.2
Cristian Perez .234 .273 .266 50 -0.4 .178 .218 .198 19 -1.4
Marcos Cabrera .192 .269 .344 68 -0.3 .133 .217 .242 29 -2.1
Aldenis Sanchez .218 .290 .279 59 -0.6 .168 .241 .213 29 -1.8
Anthony Garcia .183 .304 .361 83 -0.4 .126 .243 .245 39 -2.4
James Nelson .213 .278 .284 57 -1.0 .160 .224 .209 24 -2.4
Alexander Vargas .210 .264 .312 59 -1.5 .162 .216 .232 26 -3.2

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Carlos Rodón L 30 14 6 3.03 28 28 160.3 120 54 16 46 207
Gerrit Cole R 32 14 6 3.09 29 29 177.7 140 61 22 44 224
Jonathan Loáisiga R 28 5 2 3.21 50 2 56.0 48 20 4 18 51
Nestor Cortes L 28 9 5 3.43 29 23 139.0 119 53 17 37 142
Ron Marinaccio R 27 2 0 3.43 46 0 57.7 41 22 6 28 78
Wandy Peralta L 31 4 3 3.48 54 0 51.7 45 20 5 19 47
Tommy Kahnle R 33 2 1 3.48 47 2 41.3 33 16 4 13 47
Luis Severino R 29 7 3 3.54 21 20 104.3 85 41 12 31 108
Jimmy Cordero R 31 2 2 3.60 38 0 45.0 37 18 4 16 46
Clay Holmes R 30 6 4 3.77 57 0 62.0 49 26 4 27 65
Art Warren R 30 2 3 4.15 41 0 39.0 36 18 5 18 42
Chad Green R 32 6 4 3.86 46 4 56.0 47 24 9 16 66
Scott Effross R 29 4 3 3.88 50 1 58.0 53 25 7 14 57
Michael King R 28 4 3 3.88 35 0 48.7 38 21 8 18 67
James Norwood R 29 2 2 4.19 40 0 43.0 40 20 5 22 51
Frankie Montas R 30 10 7 3.97 25 25 140.7 129 62 20 43 146
Aroldis Chapman L 35 4 3 4.04 49 0 42.3 32 19 6 27 57
Indigo Diaz R 24 4 4 4.09 48 0 50.7 41 23 6 26 60
Domingo Germán R 30 6 5 4.10 22 19 98.7 91 45 14 26 87
Luis Gil R 25 3 3 4.11 19 17 76.7 62 35 9 41 90
Tyler Duffey R 32 4 3 4.17 51 0 54.0 49 25 6 21 51
Jhony Brito R 25 8 6 4.20 24 22 105.0 105 49 13 29 77
Sean Boyle R 26 8 7 4.23 25 21 123.3 117 58 16 32 108
Clarke Schmidt R 27 6 5 4.23 30 12 78.7 72 37 11 29 82
Lou Trivino R 31 6 4 4.25 58 1 55.0 50 26 7 24 60
Richard Rodríguez
R 33 4 3 4.30 44 0 44.0 42 21 7 11 36
Clayton Beeter R 24 2 2 4.33 29 27 81.0 69 39 11 40 89
Trevor Lane L 29 2 2 4.34 27 0 37.3 35 18 5 17 35
Nick Ramirez L 33 3 4 4.37 43 2 57.7 57 28 8 21 52
Will Warren R 24 9 8 4.37 25 25 119.3 116 58 13 44 92
Greg Weissert R 28 3 3 4.41 46 0 51.0 41 25 6 26 60
Mitch Spence R 25 6 6 4.42 24 21 112.0 112 55 14 40 91
Demarcus Evans R 26 3 2 4.46 38 0 40.3 34 20 5 26 49
Carson Coleman R 25 3 2 4.47 40 0 50.3 41 25 6 25 59
Steven Jennings R 24 4 3 4.48 39 0 66.3 68 33 9 18 48
Ryan Weber R 32 4 4 4.48 21 11 72.3 79 36 10 15 49
Matt Krook L 28 7 7 4.49 25 20 110.3 98 55 12 63 110
Zack Britton L 35 1 1 4.50 45 1 38.0 33 19 3 26 31
Yoendrys Gómez R 23 1 0 4.54 24 24 69.3 65 35 9 30 60
Randy Vasquez R 24 5 4 4.54 22 22 103.0 101 52 13 43 87
Tyler Danish R 28 3 3 4.82 35 1 52.3 55 28 7 18 45
Albert Abreu R 27 3 3 4.58 34 5 57.0 51 29 8 32 59
Barrett Loseke R 26 4 4 4.58 33 2 57.0 53 29 8 28 56
Tanner Tully L 28 6 7 4.63 24 19 114.7 125 59 15 32 73
Tanner Myatt R 25 3 3 4.67 35 0 44.3 38 23 5 28 46
Nick Ernst R 26 3 2 4.70 34 0 51.7 47 27 7 30 55
Jacob Barnes R 33 2 3 4.72 36 0 34.3 34 18 5 14 32
Shane Greene R 34 2 2 4.74 33 0 38.0 36 20 6 18 34
Luke Bard R 32 3 3 4.78 36 2 49.0 45 26 7 18 43
Emmanuel Ramirez R 28 4 5 4.80 27 7 65.7 65 35 10 28 62
Reggie McClain R 30 2 3 4.80 29 2 45.0 43 24 5 26 37
Zac Houston R 28 4 4 4.81 41 0 48.7 41 26 7 34 60
Josh Maciejewski L 27 5 5 4.82 18 10 65.3 64 35 10 26 57
Michael Gomez R 26 3 4 4.84 39 0 57.7 55 31 6 27 45
Matt Minnick L 27 3 4 4.89 31 0 46.0 43 25 7 23 45
Matt Sauer R 24 5 5 4.97 21 21 101.3 96 56 14 45 90
Deivi García R 24 5 5 5.01 21 16 79.0 72 44 11 42 79
Carlos Espinal R 26 2 2 5.03 32 0 48.3 45 27 6 30 45
Nelvin Correa R 26 2 3 5.09 28 1 46.0 48 26 7 21 34
Shawn Semple R 27 4 5 5.14 17 11 70.0 74 40 11 30 52
Lisandro Santos L 24 3 5 5.23 33 3 53.3 48 31 8 39 60
Derek Craft R 26 2 2 5.28 28 0 30.7 30 18 5 17 30
Blas Castano R 24 5 7 5.36 19 17 87.3 94 52 15 29 63
Danny Salazar R 33 1 3 6.19 14 12 32.0 32 22 8 19 35

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Carlos Rodón 160.3 11.6 2.6 0.9 7.1% 31.9% .282 136 2.84 74 4.0
Gerrit Cole 177.7 11.3 2.2 1.1 6.2% 31.6% .284 133 3.02 75 4.2
Jonathan Loáisiga 56.0 8.2 2.9 0.6 7.8% 22.0% .280 128 3.33 78 1.0
Nestor Cortes 139.0 9.2 2.4 1.1 6.5% 25.1% .277 120 3.54 83 2.7
Ron Marinaccio 57.7 12.2 4.4 0.9 11.5% 32.1% .276 120 3.52 83 0.7
Wandy Peralta 51.7 8.2 3.3 0.9 8.8% 21.7% .278 118 3.81 85 0.6
Tommy Kahnle 41.3 10.2 2.8 0.9 7.6% 27.3% .282 118 3.23 85 0.6
Luis Severino 104.3 9.3 2.7 1.0 7.3% 25.5% .269 117 3.61 86 2.0
Jimmy Cordero 45.0 9.2 3.2 0.8 8.5% 24.3% .277 114 3.53 87 0.4
Clay Holmes 62.0 9.4 3.9 0.6 10.3% 24.7% .278 109 3.54 92 0.6
Art Warren 39.0 9.7 4.2 1.2 10.5% 24.6% .301 107 4.13 93 0.3
Chad Green 56.0 10.6 2.6 1.4 6.9% 28.6% .277 107 3.85 94 0.7
Scott Effross 58.0 8.8 2.2 1.1 5.9% 23.9% .289 106 3.69 94 0.5
Michael King 48.7 12.4 3.3 1.5 9.0% 33.3% .283 106 3.83 94 0.4
James Norwood 43.0 10.7 4.6 1.0 11.4% 26.4% .318 108 3.90 93 0.3
Frankie Montas 140.7 9.3 2.8 1.3 7.3% 24.6% .290 104 3.95 96 2.0
Aroldis Chapman 42.3 12.1 5.7 1.3 14.3% 30.2% .277 102 4.29 98 0.2
Indigo Diaz 50.7 10.7 4.6 1.1 11.8% 27.1% .282 101 4.10 99 0.2
Domingo Germán 98.7 7.9 2.4 1.3 6.4% 21.3% .276 100 4.12 100 1.3
Luis Gil 76.7 10.6 4.8 1.1 12.3% 26.9% .282 100 4.05 100 1.0
Tyler Duffey 54.0 8.5 3.5 1.0 9.1% 22.0% .287 97 4.04 103 0.2
Jhony Brito 105.0 6.6 2.5 1.1 6.5% 17.3% .286 98 4.30 102 1.3
Sean Boyle 123.3 7.9 2.3 1.2 6.2% 21.0% .285 97 4.13 103 1.5
Clarke Schmidt 78.7 9.4 3.3 1.3 8.7% 24.5% .290 97 4.14 103 0.8
Lou Trivino 55.0 9.8 3.9 1.1 10.0% 25.0% .299 97 4.10 103 0.1
Richard Rodríguez 44.0 7.4 2.3 1.4 6.0% 19.6% .273 96 4.47 104 0.1
Clayton Beeter 81.0 9.9 4.4 1.2 11.1% 24.7% .280 95 4.39 105 0.8
Trevor Lane 37.3 8.4 4.1 1.2 10.5% 21.6% .288 95 4.55 105 0.0
Nick Ramirez 57.7 8.1 3.3 1.2 8.4% 20.9% .295 94 4.30 106 0.2
Will Warren 119.3 6.9 3.3 1.0 8.6% 17.9% .286 94 4.36 106 1.2
Greg Weissert 51.0 10.6 4.6 1.1 11.8% 27.1% .280 93 4.21 107 0.0
Mitch Spence 112.0 7.3 3.2 1.1 8.2% 18.7% .293 93 4.36 107 1.1
Demarcus Evans 40.3 10.9 5.8 1.1 14.3% 26.9% .293 92 4.27 108 0.0
Carson Coleman 50.3 10.5 4.5 1.1 11.4% 26.8% .282 92 4.39 108 -0.1
Steven Jennings 66.3 6.5 2.4 1.2 6.4% 17.0% .288 92 4.42 109 0.0
Ryan Weber 72.3 6.1 1.9 1.2 4.9% 16.0% .299 92 4.38 109 0.6
Matt Krook 110.3 9.0 5.1 1.0 12.8% 22.4% .288 92 4.45 109 1.0
Zack Britton 38.0 7.3 6.2 0.7 14.9% 17.8% .273 92 4.68 109 0.0
Yoendrys Gómez 69.3 7.8 3.9 1.2 10.0% 20.0% .281 91 4.58 110 0.6
Randy Vasquez 103.0 7.6 3.8 1.1 9.5% 19.3% .291 91 4.53 110 0.8
Tyler Danish 52.3 7.7 3.1 1.2 7.9% 19.7% .308 94 4.38 107 0.1
Albert Abreu 57.0 9.3 5.1 1.3 12.5% 23.1% .285 90 4.80 111 0.2
Barrett Loseke 57.0 8.8 4.4 1.3 11.1% 22.1% .288 90 4.59 111 0.0
Tanner Tully 114.7 5.7 2.5 1.2 6.5% 14.7% .296 89 4.52 112 0.8
Tanner Myatt 44.3 9.3 5.7 1.0 13.7% 22.5% .282 88 4.51 113 -0.1
Nick Ernst 51.7 9.6 5.2 1.2 12.8% 23.5% .292 88 4.70 114 -0.2
Jacob Barnes 34.3 8.4 3.7 1.3 9.3% 21.2% .296 87 4.49 114 -0.1
Shane Greene 38.0 8.1 4.3 1.4 10.8% 20.5% .280 87 5.07 115 -0.2
Luke Bard 49.0 7.9 3.3 1.3 8.6% 20.5% .275 86 4.66 116 -0.1
Emmanuel Ramirez 65.7 8.5 3.8 1.4 9.6% 21.3% .297 86 4.62 116 0.1
Reggie McClain 45.0 7.4 5.2 1.0 12.7% 18.0% .286 86 4.95 116 -0.1
Zac Houston 48.7 11.1 6.3 1.3 15.5% 27.3% .291 86 4.96 117 -0.3
Josh Maciejewski 65.3 7.9 3.6 1.4 9.1% 19.9% .287 85 4.73 117 0.3
Michael Gomez 57.7 7.0 4.2 0.9 10.6% 17.7% .283 85 4.77 117 -0.3
Matt Minnick 46.0 8.8 4.5 1.4 11.3% 22.2% .286 84 4.87 119 -0.3
Matt Sauer 101.3 8.0 4.0 1.2 10.1% 20.2% .284 83 4.86 121 0.4
Deivi García 79.0 9.0 4.8 1.3 12.0% 22.5% .285 82 4.86 122 0.2
Carlos Espinal 48.3 8.4 5.6 1.1 13.5% 20.3% .287 82 4.95 122 -0.4
Nelvin Correa 46.0 6.7 4.1 1.4 10.2% 16.5% .291 81 5.09 123 -0.3
Shawn Semple 70.0 6.7 3.9 1.4 9.6% 16.7% .292 80 5.08 125 0.1
Lisandro Santos 53.3 10.1 6.6 1.4 15.6% 24.0% .292 79 5.16 127 -0.3
Derek Craft 30.7 8.8 5.0 1.5 12.1% 21.4% .294 78 5.08 128 -0.3
Blas Castano 87.3 6.5 3.0 1.5 7.6% 16.6% .292 77 5.25 130 0.0
Danny Salazar 32.0 9.8 5.3 2.3 12.8% 23.6% .289 67 6.37 150 -0.3

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Carlos Rodón Hal Newhouser Lefty Grove Ron Guidry 5.3 2.3 2.24 4.34
Gerrit Cole Max Scherzer Curt Schilling Tex Hughson 5.7 2.8 2.49 3.70
Jonathan Loáisiga Brandon League Jesse Crain Danys Baez 1.5 0.4 2.75 3.94
Nestor Cortes Bobby Shantz Cole Hamels Madison Bumgarner 3.7 1.6 2.92 4.09
Ron Marinaccio Scott Williamson AJ Ramos Francisco Rodriguez 1.3 -0.2 2.68 4.57
Wandy Peralta Gary Wayne Billy Hoeft Gary Lucas 1.1 0.0 2.94 4.10
Tommy Kahnle Gordon Maltzberger Jeff Russell Cliff Politte 1.2 0.1 2.59 4.56
Luis Severino Urban Shocker Virgil Trucks Joe Dobson 2.8 1.1 2.99 4.25
Jimmy Cordero Tim Scott Luis Aponte Randy Moffitt 0.8 -0.1 2.97 4.72
Clay Holmes Ronald Belisario Tom Wilhelmsen George Frazier 1.3 -0.1 3.01 4.68
Art Warren Fred Lasher Dave Campbell Anthony Chavez 0.7 0.0 3.31 5.14
Chad Green Enrique Romo Rollie Fingers Jason Motte 1.4 -0.1 2.80 5.42
Scott Effross Chris Martin Huck Betts Kent Wallace 1.0 -0.2 3.13 4.82
Michael King Tim Scott Turk Farrell Drew Storen 1.0 -0.3 2.63 6.23
James Norwood David Holdridge Jason Boyd Julio Parra 0.6 -0.1 3.39 5.17
Frankie Montas Burleigh Grimes Jeff Samardzija Edwin Jackson 2.8 0.7 3.42 4.83
Aroldis Chapman Norm Charlton John Hiller Tippy Martinez 0.9 -0.6 2.76 6.14
Indigo Diaz Eddy Rodriguez Justin Miller Don DeMola 0.7 -0.3 3.45 4.96
Domingo Germán Leon Cadore Lee Stange Carl Erskine 2.0 0.6 3.58 4.68
Luis Gil Rick Ownbey Sonny Senerchia Jeff Jones 1.8 0.3 3.45 4.89
Tyler Duffey Tom Gorman Adam Warren Russ Christopher 0.8 -0.5 3.33 5.35
Jhony Brito Joe Overton Ed Lynch Vern Ruhle 1.9 0.5 3.74 4.85
Sean Boyle Dick Drago Ray Burris Jeff Suppan 2.3 0.7 3.69 4.76
Clarke Schmidt Jim Brosnan Vladimir Nunez Bill Landrum 1.4 0.1 3.63 5.07
Lou Trivino Victor Cole 콜 Gabe DeHoyos Sarge Connally 0.8 -0.5 3.49 5.29
Richard Rodríguez Roy Lee Jackson Casey Fien George Kontos 0.4 -0.4 3.66 5.25
Clayton Beeter Tom Kelley Jesse Foppert David Cone 1.5 0.1 3.75 5.13
Trevor Lane Fred Scherman Felix Heredia Don Leshnock 0.3 -0.5 3.70 5.33
Nick Ramirez Bob Shirley Francisley Bueno 부에노 Dana Eveland 이브랜드 0.7 -0.3 3.54 5.16
Will Warren Mike LaCoss Jerry Thomas Charlie Bicknell 1.9 0.3 3.92 4.97
Greg Weissert Todd Jones Anthony Varvaro Charlie Hough 0.5 -0.6 3.63 5.42
Mitch Spence Randy Bockus Ivan Abromowitz Asher Wojciechowski 1.8 0.2 3.96 5.08
Demarcus Evans Eddy Rodriguez Gary Neibauer Ron Willis 0.4 -0.5 3.67 5.59
Carson Coleman Ricky Trlicek Keith Butler Dick Woodson 0.5 -0.6 3.68 5.21
Steven Jennings Jordan Smith Dick Waibel Randy McCament 0.4 -0.5 3.91 5.17
Ryan Weber Donald Henthorne Dave Telgheder Barry Enright 1.0 0.0 3.98 5.17
Matt Krook Rich Robertson Bobby Jones Gino Minutelli 2.0 -0.3 3.81 5.41
Zack Britton Hal Woodeshick Joe Gibbon Terry Forster 0.4 -0.7 3.58 6.37
Yoendrys Gómez Randall Evans Santiago Guzman Barry Cort 1.0 0.1 4.06 5.14
Randy Vasquez Rod Imes Paul Semall Dickie Noles 1.5 0.1 4.05 5.16
Tyler Danish Justin Pope Brandon Agamennone Brian Smith 0.5 -0.2 4.08 5.61
Albert Abreu Ryan Helsley Joey Krehbiel Al Corwin 0.7 -0.4 3.94 5.36
Barrett Loseke Eddie Gaillard Brad Moore Travis Lakins 0.5 -0.6 4.01 5.38
Tanner Tully Dick Ellsworth Cole Irvin Mitchell Lambson 1.4 -0.1 4.17 5.31
Tanner Myatt Don DeMola Terry Bross John Semprini 0.3 -0.6 4.04 5.48
Nick Ernst Andy Cavazos Mark Lamm Scott Medvin 0.2 -0.8 4.06 5.54
Jacob Barnes Matt Whiteside Kyler Newby Ollie Brantley 0.2 -0.5 3.99 5.56
Shane Greene Matt Karchner Don Aase Donne Wall 0.2 -0.5 3.95 5.71
Luke Bard Bob Bowman Danys Baez Jim Acker 0.3 -0.5 4.07 5.70
Emmanuel Ramirez Shawn Blackwell Jeffrey Gladden Ryan Eades 0.7 -0.4 4.13 5.55
Reggie McClain Roy Corcoran Brad Moore Marc Wilkins 0.3 -0.6 4.17 5.72
Zac Houston David Aardsma Evan Meek 에반 Deunte Heath 0.3 -0.9 4.04 6.03
Josh Maciejewski Danny Borrell Clint Goocher Dennis Moeller 0.8 -0.3 4.22 5.72
Michael Gomez Rick Anderson Jim Winn Daryl Irvine 0.1 -0.8 4.34 5.62
Matt Minnick Bobby Seay Mike Dalton Lou Marone 0.1 -0.8 4.17 5.69
Matt Sauer Buster Narum Rob Scahill Juan Castillo 1.0 -0.4 4.47 5.66
Deivi García Tommy Moore Sam Hinds Yeiper Castillo 0.9 -0.4 4.39 5.65
Carlos Espinal David Gourieux David Carpenter George Pfeiffer 0.0 -0.9 4.46 5.92
Nelvin Correa Randy Newsom Tim Wood Joe Davenport 0.0 -0.7 4.55 5.75
Shawn Semple Scott Shoemaker Bryan Edwards Jim Abbott 0.5 -0.5 4.62 5.88
Lisandro Santos Alan Webb Gary Wayne Art DeFilippis 0.3 -0.9 4.48 6.23
Derek Craft Ricardo Aponte Mike Gardner Greg Johnson -0.1 -0.6 4.63 6.24
Blas Castano Andy Shibilo Sean Furney Trevor Holder 0.5 -0.7 4.81 6.09
Danny Salazar J.R. Richard Ralph Hamner Bob Turley -0.1 -0.7 5.45 7.25

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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murraygd13member
26 days ago

How does ZiPS handle someone like Clay Holmes? His first half was excellent, then he was pitching injured. Would his baseline numbers look better, if he missed the 2nd half of the season and not accumulated any “bad” stats.

EccentricChemistmember
26 days ago
Reply to  murraygd13

Even with the poor second half, his 2-3 year body of work should suggest he have better stats and be closer aligned to Jonathan Loiasiga.