2023 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the New York Yankees.

Batters

It’s really hard to be a lousy offense with Aaron Judge, and it’s really hard to be a great one without him. The Yankees were not otherwise stacked — or destitute — enough to buck that reality. With the return of their franchise slugger, if the Yankee offense doesn’t lead the American League in runs scored, it shouldn’t miss by a lot. The Yankees led the AL in runs scored last year and outside of Judge, they really didn’t get any standout, star-level offensive performances (other than Matt Carpenter, but that was only 154 plate appearances).

The offense is about to enter a bit of a transition phase. Looking at the lineup, Judge and Giancarlo Stanton may be the only players still on the team in three years, and even then, Stanton may be even more of a bit player than he is now. Stanton’s definitely off his peak and Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu are into their decline years. Josh Donaldson will likely be gone after 2023 — probably a year too late in the opinion of many Yankees fans — as will Harrison Bader. Isiah Kiner-Falefa got too much flak in 2022 by virtue of being a stopgap who played like one, but we’ll soon start to see Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe take over the shortstop job, with the loser of that duel the likely successor to Gleyber Torres at second.

One thing to note is that the roster does have some injury risk as currently constructed. There’s a lot riding on Judge, and the team’s depth thins out considerably once you get past the players likely to be on the major league roster. We’ll probably have some non-roster invitee action here in the coming weeks, but that’s information I don’t have yet!

Pitchers

Judge may get the most press, but the Yankee rotation is downright terrifying. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón are as frightening a one-two as the crosstown rival Mets have, and they’re likely to be around a lot longer. ZiPS is finally a full believer in Nestor Cortes, and both Frankie Montas and Luis Severino have solid projections that only look light because of the projected inning totals. Domingo Germán is one of the better sixth starters around, and ZiPS likes the team’s Triple-A depth of below-average-but-above-replacement starters better than the parallel fill-ins available on the offensive side. Unless Tommy John surgery becomes an unfortunate trend in the Bronx, I expect the Yankees are more likely to add a hitter at the deadline than another pitcher. Long-term, ZiPS is kinda fascinated by the upside of Clayton Beeter, and it would be amusing to me if he were on the roster in a World Series in which the Yankees were beating Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.

The bullpen isn’t quite at the same level that it was at its peak from a few years ago when the Yankees seemed to employ half of the league’s closers, but the group remains solid despite a relative lack of marquee names. ZiPS projects nearly the entire likely relief corps to be above average and is especially in on Ron Marinaccio. (The team likely feels similarly or Lucas Luetge wouldn’t be in Atlanta right now.) The one thing the Yankees could still use is another lefty reliever — as of right now, Wandy Peralta is the bullpen’s only southpaw.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.