2023 ZiPS Projections: Philadelphia Phillies

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batters

The Phillies made the playoffs by the skin of their teeth in 2022 and got all the way to the World Series, but to get a second bite at the championship apple, the roster needed to be improved. Signing one of the absolute best free agents available in Trea Turner to a monster deal that basically keeps him in Philly for the rest of his career does just that. I liked the Didi Gregorius signings in the past, but he never got back to his pre-injury form, and Turner represents a ginormous improvement on Sir Didi.

The big complication for the team’s offense right now is the outfield, an existing issue made worse by Bryce Harper’s Tommy John surgery guaranteeing that he would not play a full season. Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos are not a particularly impressive defensive pair, to say the least, but I’ll give the Phillies a pass here, as there’s no way they expected those two to play so much in the outfield at the same time. I’m less excited about Brandon Marsh in center, but that depth chart projection is actually the best for the Phillies since Odúbel Herrera was a good player. And while I didn’t like giving up Logan O’Hoppe for Marsh, it’s a reasonable upgrade at the position compared to the team’s typical plan: Adam Haseley platooning with one lucky fan every game.

Depth is a concern here, and there’s a pretty big dropoff at most positions if something bad happens. The replacement candidates at DH don’t inspire much hope, and I think the Phillies should make an effort to get better options before Opening Day. I’d have taken a chance on Nelson Cruz, and given the defensive output of the outfielders, I would have been aggressive at trying to bring in Kevin Kiermaier. Every team will get worse going from starters to replacements — it’s not like the Dodgers keep a spare Mookie Betts just hanging around for emergencies — but in ZiPS’ eyes, the Phillies have one of the five biggest declines (of teams so far) in projected WAR from starters to secondary options.

Pitchers

ZiPS isn’t high on Taijuan Walker in Philadelphia, but as a fourth starter, he helps round out the rotation. The computer sees Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler both returning to All-Star levels of performance, with Ranger Suárez not far behind; this is a good postseason 1-2-3. Bailey Falter also projects in the vicinity of league average. Andrew Painter gets a solid projection for a pitcher with a short history of professional ball, but while Mick Abel has a lot of upside, ZiPS thinks his command means he’s not as close to fill-in duty as Painter is. There’s not a lot of algorithmic excitement for the rest of the pitchers available in the high minors, so a few injuries would probably result in the Phillies being active in the trade market.

ZiPS gives solid projections to José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez but sees the rest of the bullpen as a mixed bag. After those two and Connor Brogdon, it doesn’t project a single reliever to beat a league-average ERA, even Craig Kimbrel. ZiPS is not at all bullish on recent pickup Gregory Soto; his FIP numbers are alright, but his control numbers are rather dismal, especially for a pitcher who isn’t great at punching out batters and frequently gets hit hard. His raw stuff means he has upside, but he’s still a project to a degree, despite a good FIP. A very low home run rate has been his saving grace, something that is really hard for anyone to maintain long-term. I think the Phillies would be wise to pick up another depth piece or two in relief.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Trea Turner R 30 SS 652 598 101 180 35 4 24 86 46 117 26 4
J.T. Realmuto R 32 C 547 491 72 127 26 3 20 76 42 121 14 1
Bryce Harper L 30 RF 547 461 81 126 32 1 27 86 76 118 12 4
Kyle Schwarber L 30 LF 602 515 88 121 22 2 38 96 79 173 6 1
Rhys Hoskins R 30 1B 610 522 77 124 32 2 27 83 76 151 2 1
Bryson Stott L 25 SS 491 445 61 109 20 3 11 55 42 107 10 3
Alec Bohm R 26 3B 588 537 71 147 26 2 14 70 40 110 3 3
Edmundo Sosa R 27 SS 347 316 45 78 12 4 7 39 13 77 6 2
Jake Cave L 30 CF 466 421 57 99 19 7 13 61 36 136 5 1
Kody Clemens L 27 2B 430 394 52 87 16 4 16 67 29 116 4 1
Darick Hall L 27 1B 532 479 57 108 29 1 23 78 41 145 2 1
Dalton Guthrie R 27 CF 385 354 46 85 18 2 8 45 21 89 8 3
Nick Castellanos R 31 RF 564 521 73 137 34 1 21 78 35 127 4 1
Brandon Marsh L 25 CF 470 427 53 98 18 4 9 54 36 144 11 3
Odúbel Herrera L 31 CF 347 321 39 79 19 1 8 39 20 65 6 1
Garrett Stubbs L 30 C 184 159 26 36 7 0 4 19 21 40 4 1
Wendell Rijo R 27 3B 401 366 47 83 20 0 10 46 28 103 8 3
Rafael Marchan B 24 C 293 268 29 62 13 0 3 26 19 41 1 1
Will Toffey L 28 3B 354 306 39 61 14 2 8 39 37 133 5 1
Oliver Dunn L 25 2B 185 163 22 31 7 2 4 17 21 66 3 1
Max McDowell R 29 C 239 206 24 41 10 0 2 22 22 62 2 1
Ronald Torreyes R 30 2B 343 320 37 78 11 1 6 35 16 40 2 1
Johan Rojas R 22 CF 546 506 68 116 19 5 6 50 28 115 30 5
Daniel Robertson R 29 SS 282 248 31 52 11 0 5 25 27 74 0 1
Hao Yu Lee R 20 SS 356 321 38 74 13 2 7 40 29 84 6 4
Yairo Munoz R 28 3B 364 347 39 92 15 2 7 41 12 66 10 3
Símon Muzziotti L 24 CF 276 253 27 60 9 3 3 25 19 55 6 4
Didi Gregorius L 33 SS 333 305 34 73 14 3 9 39 19 51 2 0
John Hicks R 33 C 331 313 34 71 16 1 13 49 16 107 4 2
Johan Camargo B 29 DH 381 347 42 86 16 1 9 42 32 76 0 1
Scott Kingery R 29 2B 367 325 41 65 16 3 7 35 35 122 9 2
Josh Ockimey L 27 1B 447 380 44 74 15 1 13 47 61 147 1 1
Cam Cannon R 25 3B 326 303 30 67 16 0 3 30 16 63 3 2
Edgar Cabral R 27 C 94 85 7 16 4 0 2 8 8 32 1 1
Justin Williams L 27 RF 196 177 18 37 5 0 5 22 17 62 2 1
Jim Haley R 28 1B 417 384 50 81 14 3 12 52 24 135 11 3
Kendall Simmons R 23 2B 345 314 35 64 15 2 9 40 20 107 5 2
Jorge Bonifacio R 30 LF 424 381 42 77 16 2 11 49 35 129 4 2
Garrett Whitley R 26 RF 386 338 46 65 17 3 9 43 42 148 9 4
Pedro Martinez B 22 2B 290 265 31 54 9 2 2 25 20 92 9 7
Dustin Peterson R 28 RF 405 373 39 89 17 1 9 46 27 95 2 1
Herbert Iser L 25 C 232 215 17 42 9 1 3 20 13 71 0 1
Vito Friscia R 26 DH 345 303 28 63 13 1 6 33 36 108 1 1
Cody Roberts R 27 C 272 247 21 50 12 0 5 30 21 89 0 1
Chris Sharpe R 27 CF 378 334 42 63 20 1 6 40 32 123 6 3
McCarthy Tatum R 27 3B 317 292 28 55 12 1 5 31 17 107 4 2
Matt Kroon R 26 CF 234 214 21 45 7 3 3 23 13 73 4 4
Sal Gozzo B 25 2B 205 189 18 31 7 0 1 11 12 74 2 1
Carlos De La Cruz R 23 LF 364 337 31 67 15 1 9 42 19 138 3 1
Jhailyn Ortiz R 24 RF 483 441 52 86 16 1 14 56 31 179 3 1
Ali Castillo R 34 2B 354 329 33 82 11 2 1 28 19 54 4 2
Jack Conley R 26 C 264 238 21 45 9 2 3 22 22 80 1 1
Rixon Wingrove L 23 1B 317 291 24 55 10 1 9 36 19 124 1 1
Casey Martin R 24 SS 422 395 36 73 20 1 4 34 19 128 8 3
Baron Radcliff L 24 LF 386 342 33 58 10 1 11 39 41 176 2 2
Nick Matera R 26 C 182 165 14 27 7 0 3 15 15 72 0 1
Madison Stokes R 27 CF 349 323 27 61 14 1 5 32 20 124 3 1
Ethan Wilson L 23 RF 495 467 38 101 18 3 6 43 22 126 11 6

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Trea Turner 652 .301 .353 .493 129 .192 .341 4 6.1 .362
J.T. Realmuto 547 .259 .327 .446 109 .187 .306 6 4.2 .332
Bryce Harper 547 .273 .377 .523 143 .249 .313 0 3.9 .377
Kyle Schwarber 602 .235 .341 .507 128 .272 .273 -8 2.7 .360
Rhys Hoskins 610 .238 .341 .462 117 .224 .282 -1 2.3 .346
Bryson Stott 491 .245 .310 .378 87 .133 .300 0 1.6 .301
Alec Bohm 588 .274 .325 .408 99 .134 .322 -5 1.5 .317
Edmundo Sosa 347 .247 .303 .377 85 .130 .306 5 1.5 .296
Jake Cave 466 .235 .305 .406 93 .171 .316 -2 1.2 .308
Kody Clemens 430 .221 .275 .404 83 .183 .271 4 1.1 .290
Darick Hall 532 .225 .299 .434 98 .209 .273 4 1.1 .314
Dalton Guthrie 385 .240 .295 .370 81 .130 .300 4 1.0 .291
Nick Castellanos 564 .263 .314 .453 107 .190 .311 -7 1.0 .328
Brandon Marsh 470 .230 .293 .354 76 .124 .325 4 0.9 .283
Odúbel Herrera 347 .246 .294 .386 85 .140 .286 1 0.8 .295
Garrett Stubbs 184 .226 .322 .346 84 .119 .278 1 0.7 .299
Wendell Rijo 401 .227 .290 .363 78 .137 .289 1 0.6 .286
Rafael Marchan 293 .231 .294 .313 67 .082 .263 2 0.5 .271
Will Toffey 354 .199 .297 .337 74 .137 .321 1 0.4 .284
Oliver Dunn 185 .190 .286 .331 69 .141 .290 3 0.4 .274
Max McDowell 239 .199 .303 .277 61 .078 .275 2 0.4 .268
Ronald Torreyes 343 .244 .284 .341 71 .097 .263 3 0.4 .273
Johan Rojas 546 .229 .277 .322 64 .093 .286 3 0.3 .264
Daniel Robertson 282 .210 .301 .315 70 .105 .278 0 0.3 .278
Hao Yu Lee 356 .231 .303 .349 78 .118 .291 -4 0.3 .288
Yairo Munoz 364 .265 .292 .380 83 .115 .310 -3 0.3 .291
Símon Muzziotti 276 .237 .292 .332 71 .095 .292 3 0.3 .275
Didi Gregorius 333 .239 .291 .393 85 .154 .261 -7 0.1 .295
John Hicks 331 .227 .266 .409 81 .182 .301 -7 0.1 .289
Johan Camargo 381 .248 .312 .378 88 .130 .294 0 0.1 .302
Scott Kingery 367 .200 .282 .332 68 .132 .296 -2 -0.1 .273
Josh Ockimey 447 .195 .309 .342 78 .147 .277 1 -0.1 .291
Cam Cannon 326 .221 .274 .304 58 .083 .270 3 -0.1 .257
Edgar Cabral 94 .188 .255 .306 53 .118 .275 -1 -0.2 .248
Justin Williams 196 .209 .286 .322 66 .113 .291 1 -0.3 .268
Jim Haley 417 .211 .269 .357 70 .146 .291 3 -0.4 .273
Kendall Simmons 345 .204 .268 .350 68 .146 .278 -4 -0.4 .271
Jorge Bonifacio 424 .202 .276 .341 68 .139 .274 2 -0.6 .271
Garrett Whitley 386 .192 .290 .340 72 .148 .309 -2 -0.6 .281
Pedro Martinez 290 .204 .270 .275 50 .072 .304 1 -0.7 .246
Dustin Peterson 405 .239 .294 .362 79 .123 .297 -5 -0.7 .286
Herbert Iser 232 .195 .246 .288 46 .093 .277 -1 -0.7 .234
Vito Friscia 345 .208 .296 .317 68 .109 .302 0 -0.7 .274
Cody Roberts 272 .202 .272 .312 60 .109 .294 -7 -0.7 .260
Chris Sharpe 378 .189 .273 .308 59 .120 .278 -3 -0.7 .260
McCarthy Tatum 317 .188 .246 .288 46 .099 .278 1 -0.9 .237
Matt Kroon 234 .210 .270 .313 60 .103 .304 -6 -0.9 .259
Sal Gozzo 205 .164 .222 .217 21 .053 .263 2 -1.0 .201
Carlos De La Cruz 364 .199 .253 .329 58 .131 .305 1 -1.1 .255
Jhailyn Ortiz 483 .195 .263 .331 62 .136 .290 1 -1.1 .262
Ali Castillo 354 .249 .289 .304 63 .055 .296 -8 -1.1 .262
Jack Conley 264 .189 .266 .282 51 .092 .271 -8 -1.1 .247
Rixon Wingrove 317 .189 .252 .323 56 .134 .291 -1 -1.2 .254
Casey Martin 422 .185 .232 .271 38 .086 .262 1 -1.3 .223
Baron Radcliff 386 .170 .262 .301 54 .132 .303 -1 -1.3 .253
Nick Matera 182 .164 .236 .261 36 .097 .267 -10 -1.6 .224
Madison Stokes 349 .189 .244 .285 45 .096 .289 -11 -2.2 .235
Ethan Wilson 495 .216 .257 .306 54 .090 .284 -5 -2.4 .247

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Trea Turner Frankie Frisch Bobby Avila Alvin Dark
J.T. Realmuto Phil Masi Carlton Fisk Ivan Rodriguez
Bryce Harper Len Koenecke Christian Yelich Cliff Floyd
Kyle Schwarber Jeromy Burnitz Darryl Strawberry Hank Greenberg
Rhys Hoskins Gil Hodges Ken Phelps Andre Thornton
Bryson Stott Rudy Meoli Dave Anderson Scott Fletcher
Alec Bohm Danny O’Connell Ramon Conde Buddy Bell
Edmundo Sosa Dave Nelson Olmo Rosario John Gamble
Jake Cave Dave Pope Steve Stroughter Sam West
Kody Clemens Pete Mackanin Lou Stringer Harry Watts
Darick Hall Andy Wilkins Larry See Lloyd McClendon
Dalton Guthrie Ryan Brett Hal Jeffcoat Jim Steels
Nick Castellanos Marlon Byrd Cecil Cooper Corey Dickerson
Brandon Marsh Herm Winningham Joe Caffie Gale Wade
Odúbel Herrera Steve Lyons Jeff Abbott Timo Perez
Garrett Stubbs Joe Pignatano Frank Grube Bob Stinson
Wendell Rijo Jayson Nix Jeff Ball Steve Benson
Rafael Marchan Billy Alvino Pete Rowe Wilfredo Rodriguez
Will Toffey Joe Orengo Johnny Knott Jerome Pena
Oliver Dunn Zach Files Tom Allison Horace Porter
Max McDowell Javi Herrera Jim Robertson Matt Sinatro
Ronald Torreyes Rafael Bournigal Rennie Stennett Kevin Jordan
Johan Rojas Dave Sappelt Tike Redman Kevin Bootay
Daniel Robertson Jason Bates Ricky Magdaleno Billy White
Hao Yu Lee Bill Lucas Toby Harrah Jason Bartlett
Yairo Munoz Napoleon Calzado Steve Garcia Frenchy Bordagaray
Símon Muzziotti Larry Reynolds Carl Loadenthal Bill Rice
Didi Gregorius Craig Reynolds Casey Candaele Chuck Hiller
John Hicks Miguel Olivo Orlando McFarlane Hawk Taylor
Johan Camargo Mike Cubbage Wally Roettger Shawn Pleffner
Scott Kingery Danny Worth 워스 Dave Owen Anthony Granato
Josh Ockimey Allan Dykstra Danny Hayes Vernon Ramie
Cam Cannon Ed Lavene James Hatfield Nate Samson
Edgar Cabral Matthew Morizio Robert Palmer Nick Derba
Justin Williams Gary Mota Brad Downing Keith Legree
Jim Haley Fred Marolewski Rich Gomez Pat Reilly
Kendall Simmons Tommy Bates Jason Klam Frank Turco
Jorge Bonifacio Michael Lutz Nate Murphy Caleb Stewart
Garrett Whitley Skip Kiil Clifton Matthew Brett Jackson
Pedro Martinez Shawn O’Malley Delvis Morales Marc Rhea
Dustin Peterson Jimmy Van Ostrand Vince Sinisi Thomas Neal
Herbert Iser Parker Morin Tyler Baker Sean Smith
Vito Friscia Pat Garman Juan Pautt Dominic D’Anna
Cody Roberts Juan Apodaca Tom Nieto Dan Rohlfing
Chris Sharpe Shawn Payne Terry Banderas Brenden Webb
McCarthy Tatum Dillon Hazlett Greg Sinatro Jorge Araiza
Matt Kroon Claudio Custodio Todd Hobson Chuck Rocker
Sal Gozzo Jerry Pullman Joe Rhomberg Jake McGuiggan
Carlos De La Cruz Tristen Lutz Vic Ferrante Mike Vento
Jhailyn Ortiz Bruce Chick Greg Biagini Mike Bianucci
Ali Castillo Norberto Martin Aaron Miles Edgar Caceres 캐세레스
Jack Conley Ben Margalski Kerry Baker Jorge Saez
Rixon Wingrove Nick Davis Brian Suarez Pablo Moncerratt
Casey Martin Keith Johnson Steve Lackey Donaldo Mendez
Baron Radcliff Shon Walker Brian Kirby Tom Alfredson
Nick Matera Sammy Rodriguez Dave Liddell Michael Quesada
Madison Stokes Bubba Starling Joe Colameco Nicholas Moresi
Ethan Wilson Dave Jacas Harry Shelton Kevin Williams

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Trea Turner .326 .379 .546 148 7.6 .277 .329 .448 111 4.5
J.T. Realmuto .281 .350 .495 128 5.4 .233 .301 .401 91 2.9
Bryce Harper .296 .400 .589 165 5.4 .247 .347 .474 124 2.6
Kyle Schwarber .262 .368 .572 150 4.3 .210 .315 .442 104 1.0
Rhys Hoskins .262 .365 .515 137 3.7 .211 .315 .405 96 0.7
Bryson Stott .268 .334 .424 104 2.7 .220 .284 .336 70 0.6
Alec Bohm .301 .352 .460 120 3.0 .249 .297 .372 82 0.3
Edmundo Sosa .274 .330 .432 105 2.3 .213 .274 .325 65 0.5
Jake Cave .268 .333 .462 114 2.4 .207 .276 .345 70 -0.1
Kody Clemens .245 .298 .467 104 2.3 .195 .249 .356 64 0.1
Darick Hall .249 .324 .490 118 2.5 .200 .275 .381 79 -0.1
Dalton Guthrie .263 .321 .418 100 1.8 .212 .267 .325 63 0.1
Nick Castellanos .289 .340 .503 127 2.5 .237 .288 .406 88 -0.3
Brandon Marsh .255 .317 .396 91 1.7 .201 .264 .308 57 -0.4
Odúbel Herrera .274 .327 .434 104 1.7 .219 .270 .336 66 0.0
Garrett Stubbs .251 .350 .394 103 1.2 .198 .295 .296 64 0.3
Wendell Rijo .253 .316 .414 95 1.5 .199 .261 .316 58 -0.4
Rafael Marchan .262 .324 .357 85 1.2 .202 .263 .276 50 -0.2
Will Toffey .227 .324 .390 91 1.1 .173 .269 .285 51 -0.6
Oliver Dunn .218 .314 .395 92 0.9 .156 .253 .275 44 -0.2
Max McDowell .230 .336 .321 81 1.0 .169 .274 .238 42 -0.2
Ronald Torreyes .273 .315 .389 91 1.3 .214 .258 .300 52 -0.4
Johan Rojas .255 .303 .358 80 1.5 .205 .256 .290 50 -0.8
Daniel Robertson .239 .332 .362 89 1.0 .182 .274 .269 52 -0.3
Hao Yu Lee .256 .331 .398 98 1.2 .206 .276 .307 61 -0.5
Yairo Munoz .296 .320 .427 101 1.2 .239 .262 .339 63 -0.6
Símon Muzziotti .265 .317 .382 91 1.0 .209 .264 .295 55 -0.3
Didi Gregorius .269 .320 .456 107 1.0 .214 .265 .347 66 -0.7
John Hicks .250 .291 .468 101 1.0 .199 .240 .354 60 -0.8
Johan Camargo .278 .337 .428 107 1.0 .222 .285 .333 69 -0.8
Scott Kingery .228 .313 .388 89 1.0 .175 .256 .289 49 -0.9
Josh Ockimey .221 .338 .396 98 1.0 .167 .278 .293 58 -1.3
Cam Cannon .250 .299 .352 77 0.7 .193 .247 .265 40 -0.9
Edgar Cabral .222 .287 .362 78 0.1 .160 .221 .264 32 -0.5
Justin Williams .238 .316 .375 88 0.3 .181 .259 .276 47 -0.8
Jim Haley .241 .296 .412 91 0.7 .186 .243 .315 52 -1.4
Kendall Simmons .233 .295 .417 92 0.6 .176 .242 .299 50 -1.2
Jorge Bonifacio .228 .303 .393 89 0.5 .176 .251 .295 52 -1.4
Garrett Whitley .220 .316 .391 92 0.3 .162 .263 .294 53 -1.5
Pedro Martinez .231 .301 .320 68 0.0 .176 .241 .234 32 -1.4
Dustin Peterson .265 .322 .415 99 0.3 .212 .268 .322 61 -1.6
Herbert Iser .229 .279 .341 68 0.0 .163 .214 .238 26 -1.3
Vito Friscia .234 .323 .359 84 0.0 .182 .266 .276 48 -1.6
Cody Roberts .228 .304 .356 76 -0.1 .174 .243 .263 39 -1.4
Chris Sharpe .213 .301 .348 77 0.1 .163 .245 .263 40 -1.7
McCarthy Tatum .213 .273 .332 64 -0.1 .157 .219 .247 28 -1.6
Matt Kroon .238 .296 .361 78 -0.4 .184 .246 .272 43 -1.4
Sal Gozzo .195 .246 .256 37 -0.6 .142 .193 .182 4 -1.5
Carlos De La Cruz .230 .281 .387 79 -0.1 .173 .227 .287 40 -1.9
Jhailyn Ortiz .223 .291 .375 80 0.1 .172 .239 .285 44 -2.2
Ali Castillo .280 .320 .340 81 -0.3 .220 .261 .269 47 -1.8
Jack Conley .218 .298 .333 73 -0.3 .157 .237 .235 32 -1.8
Rixon Wingrove .217 .283 .375 77 -0.4 .166 .229 .275 39 -2.0
Casey Martin .209 .257 .311 55 -0.4 .160 .208 .234 22 -2.1
Baron Radcliff .195 .289 .356 73 -0.4 .140 .235 .246 34 -2.3
Nick Matera .198 .272 .317 58 -1.1 .137 .205 .212 15 -2.1
Madison Stokes .217 .271 .326 62 -1.4 .164 .219 .244 26 -3.0
Ethan Wilson .242 .285 .344 71 -1.2 .193 .237 .267 39 -3.3

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
José Alvarado L 28 5 2 3.25 60 0 52.7 39 19 4 29 73
Zack Wheeler R 33 12 7 3.37 26 26 160.3 143 60 15 38 165
Aaron Nola R 30 13 9 3.54 30 30 188.3 160 74 21 35 210
Ranger Suárez L 27 10 6 3.54 32 24 142.3 134 56 13 48 120
Seranthony Domínguez R 28 7 4 3.61 57 0 52.3 42 21 5 24 60
Connor Brogdon R 28 4 2 3.83 54 1 56.3 49 24 7 19 63
Corey Knebel R 31 4 3 4.03 46 1 44.7 38 20 5 22 44
Kent Emanuel L 31 3 3 4.08 17 10 64.0 67 29 8 15 48
Craig Kimbrel R 35 5 5 4.17 53 0 49.7 40 23 7 25 63
Jakob Hernandez L 27 3 2 4.17 44 0 49.7 44 23 7 21 58
Bailey Falter L 26 7 6 4.19 27 20 109.7 106 51 17 26 103
Yunior Marte R 28 2 2 4.26 53 0 63.3 58 30 7 26 61
Andrew Bellatti R 31 3 3 4.34 48 1 45.7 40 22 7 20 59
Jace Fry L 29 3 3 4.34 39 0 37.3 31 18 4 21 42
Matt Strahm L 31 5 4 4.37 42 5 59.7 58 29 10 15 64
Luis Ortiz R 27 3 4 4.41 33 6 65.3 65 32 8 21 54
Taijuan Walker R 30 8 7 4.41 26 26 138.7 137 68 20 41 115
Andrew Painter R 20 5 5 4.45 27 27 109.3 105 54 17 37 107
Trevor Bettencourt R 28 2 1 4.45 24 3 32.3 34 16 5 11 27
Braden Zarbnisky R 26 2 2 4.47 30 1 44.3 43 22 7 14 41
Nick Nelson R 27 3 3 4.48 37 5 64.3 58 32 6 36 68
Brad Hand L 33 4 3 4.50 56 0 48.0 47 24 7 21 46
Gregory Soto L 28 5 6 4.50 56 3 64.0 59 32 9 34 69
Jake Newberry R 28 2 3 4.50 34 2 44.0 45 22 6 20 38
Sam Coonrod R 30 2 2 4.50 37 1 36.0 34 18 4 16 32
Cristopher Sánchez L 26 4 4 4.55 26 15 83.0 79 42 10 38 78
Taylor Lehman L 27 1 2 4.59 24 8 33.3 32 17 4 17 31
Michael Plassmeyer L 26 7 7 4.60 25 22 117.3 120 60 18 35 102
Hans Crouse R 24 5 6 4.61 22 22 80.0 76 41 10 38 73
Andrew Vasquez L 29 3 3 4.62 36 0 39.0 31 20 4 19 44
Ryan Sherriff L 33 2 3 4.63 28 1 23.3 22 12 2 13 22
Noah Skirrow R 24 6 6 4.63 23 21 103.0 103 53 15 42 90
Griff McGarry R 24 5 6 4.68 25 17 75.0 63 39 10 50 90
Joe Gatto R 28 2 3 4.75 29 1 41.7 40 22 5 26 43
McKinley Moore R 24 3 4 4.76 37 1 45.3 42 24 6 26 50
Bubby Rossman R 31 4 5 4.81 40 11 58.0 57 31 9 30 59
Jake Jewell R 30 2 2 4.83 42 0 50.3 48 27 7 22 49
Kyle Dohy L 26 2 3 4.83 31 0 41.0 34 22 5 31 51
Ethan Lindow L 24 4 6 4.88 23 17 96.0 103 52 14 30 67
Josh Hendrickson L 25 3 3 4.94 15 11 58.3 59 32 9 24 48
James McArthur R 26 3 5 5.04 16 14 64.3 65 36 9 28 55
Billy Sullivan R 24 2 3 5.06 41 2 48.0 40 27 6 33 56
Mick Abel R 21 8 10 5.08 23 23 101.0 98 57 15 52 95
Matt Seelinger R 28 2 2 5.08 41 2 51.3 48 29 7 36 55
Jeff Singer L 29 2 3 5.09 32 0 40.7 39 23 5 21 38
Jack Perkins R 25 3 5 5.09 24 12 70.7 76 40 10 29 51
Braeden Ogle L 25 2 3 5.13 38 0 40.3 40 23 5 24 32
James Marvel R 29 6 8 5.14 28 15 103.3 114 59 14 38 65
Francisco Morales R 23 5 6 5.17 38 8 62.7 53 36 7 45 68
Andrew Baker R 23 2 3 5.18 43 0 48.7 45 28 7 33 50
Dillon Maples R 31 2 2 5.25 36 0 36.0 26 21 4 33 45
Damon Jones L 28 2 4 5.31 23 10 59.3 53 35 9 42 69
Zach Linginfelter R 26 2 4 5.36 25 7 48.7 48 29 7 28 42
Mike Adams R 28 3 3 5.40 37 3 53.3 57 32 8 30 39
Trey Cobb R 29 4 6 5.43 33 1 54.7 56 33 7 25 42
Jonathan Hennigan L 28 3 3 5.44 40 1 48.0 48 29 6 34 42
Colton Eastman R 26 4 6 5.44 21 19 82.7 87 50 13 48 65
Aaron Barrett R 35 1 2 5.47 26 0 26.3 28 16 5 14 24
Erubiel Armenta L 23 2 3 5.49 41 0 39.3 33 24 5 34 45
Jon Duplantier R 28 3 4 5.49 28 13 77.0 76 47 12 47 76
Mark Appel R 31 2 4 5.55 27 5 48.7 50 30 7 25 37
Jhordany Mezquita L 25 3 5 5.56 16 12 55.0 57 34 8 35 44
Brian Marconi L 26 3 5 5.62 45 1 49.7 48 31 7 39 48
James Dykstra R 32 1 3 5.65 30 0 28.7 32 18 5 15 24
Louis Head R 33 1 1 5.66 38 2 41.3 39 26 7 22 41
Erich Uelmen R 27 3 6 5.71 38 5 69.3 70 44 12 35 60
Zach Warren L 27 1 1 5.75 34 0 36.0 34 23 5 29 38
Andrew Schultz R 25 1 2 5.79 44 0 42.0 38 27 5 34 43
Brett Schulze R 25 0 0 5.87 19 1 23.0 23 15 5 14 24

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
José Alvarado 52.7 12.5 5.0 0.7 12.6% 31.6% .299 128 3.19 78 0.9
Zack Wheeler 160.3 9.3 2.1 0.8 5.8% 25.2% .296 123 3.12 81 3.6
Aaron Nola 188.3 10.0 1.7 1.0 4.7% 28.0% .288 117 3.07 85 3.9
Ranger Suárez 142.3 7.6 3.0 0.8 8.0% 20.0% .289 117 3.77 85 3.0
Seranthony Domínguez 52.3 10.3 4.1 0.9 10.8% 26.9% .282 115 3.59 87 0.7
Connor Brogdon 56.3 10.1 3.0 1.1 8.0% 26.6% .292 108 3.65 92 0.6
Corey Knebel 44.7 8.9 4.4 1.0 11.4% 22.8% .275 103 4.25 97 0.4
Kent Emanuel 64.0 6.8 2.1 1.1 5.6% 17.8% .298 102 4.08 98 0.9
Craig Kimbrel 49.7 11.4 4.5 1.3 11.5% 29.0% .284 100 4.20 100 0.2
Jakob Hernandez 49.7 10.5 3.8 1.3 9.8% 27.1% .296 100 4.04 100 0.3
Bailey Falter 109.7 8.5 2.1 1.4 5.7% 22.6% .290 99 4.11 101 1.5
Yunior Marte 63.3 8.7 3.7 1.0 9.5% 22.2% .290 97 4.04 103 0.3
Andrew Bellatti 45.7 11.6 3.9 1.4 10.2% 29.9% .306 96 4.07 104 0.2
Jace Fry 37.3 10.1 5.1 1.0 12.7% 25.5% .284 96 4.22 105 0.2
Matt Strahm 59.7 9.7 2.3 1.5 6.0% 25.6% .302 95 4.14 105 0.5
Luis Ortiz 65.3 7.4 2.9 1.1 7.6% 19.4% .294 94 4.15 106 0.5
Taijuan Walker 138.7 7.5 2.7 1.3 7.0% 19.7% .287 94 4.36 106 1.6
Andrew Painter 109.3 8.8 3.0 1.4 7.9% 22.9% .292 93 4.37 107 1.3
Trevor Bettencourt 32.3 7.5 3.1 1.4 7.8% 19.1% .299 93 4.61 107 0.2
Braden Zarbnisky 44.3 8.3 2.8 1.4 7.4% 21.6% .288 93 4.44 108 0.1
Nick Nelson 64.3 9.5 5.0 0.8 12.2% 23.1% .301 93 4.12 108 0.4
Brad Hand 48.0 8.6 3.9 1.3 10.0% 21.9% .296 92 4.76 108 0.0
Gregory Soto 64.0 9.7 4.8 1.3 11.8% 23.9% .296 92 4.56 108 0.3
Jake Newberry 44.0 7.8 4.1 1.2 10.2% 19.3% .300 92 4.63 108 0.2
Sam Coonrod 36.0 8.0 4.0 1.0 10.1% 20.3% .291 92 4.40 108 0.1
Cristopher Sánchez 83.0 8.5 4.1 1.1 10.4% 21.4% .295 91 4.39 110 0.8
Taylor Lehman 33.3 8.4 4.6 1.1 11.3% 20.7% .295 90 4.47 111 0.2
Michael Plassmeyer 117.3 7.8 2.7 1.4 7.0% 20.4% .297 90 4.51 111 1.2
Hans Crouse 80.0 8.2 4.3 1.1 10.8% 20.7% .291 90 4.49 111 0.8
Andrew Vasquez 39.0 10.2 4.4 0.9 11.4% 26.3% .276 90 4.31 111 0.1
Ryan Sherriff 23.3 8.5 5.0 0.8 12.4% 21.0% .303 90 4.44 112 0.0
Noah Skirrow 103.0 7.9 3.7 1.3 9.3% 20.0% .293 90 4.67 112 1.0
Griff McGarry 75.0 10.8 6.0 1.2 14.7% 26.4% .290 89 4.69 113 0.7
Joe Gatto 41.7 9.3 5.6 1.1 13.5% 22.3% .307 87 4.52 114 0.0
McKinley Moore 45.3 9.9 5.2 1.2 12.6% 24.2% .303 87 4.52 115 0.0
Bubby Rossman 58.0 9.2 4.7 1.4 11.5% 22.6% .302 86 4.74 116 0.3
Jake Jewell 50.3 8.8 3.9 1.3 9.9% 22.1% .293 86 4.62 116 -0.1
Kyle Dohy 41.0 11.2 6.8 1.1 15.9% 26.2% .293 86 4.81 116 -0.1
Ethan Lindow 96.0 6.3 2.8 1.3 7.2% 16.1% .295 85 4.81 117 0.7
Josh Hendrickson 58.3 7.4 3.7 1.4 9.4% 18.8% .289 84 4.95 119 0.4
James McArthur 64.3 7.7 3.9 1.3 9.8% 19.3% .296 82 4.85 121 0.4
Billy Sullivan 48.0 10.5 6.2 1.1 14.9% 25.2% .286 82 4.94 122 -0.1
Mick Abel 101.0 8.5 4.6 1.3 11.6% 21.2% .292 82 5.01 122 0.5
Matt Seelinger 51.3 9.6 6.3 1.2 14.9% 22.7% .299 82 4.95 123 -0.1
Jeff Singer 40.7 8.4 4.6 1.1 11.6% 21.0% .296 82 4.80 123 -0.2
Jack Perkins 70.7 6.5 3.7 1.3 9.2% 16.2% .297 81 4.99 123 0.3
Braeden Ogle 40.3 7.1 5.4 1.1 12.9% 17.2% .289 81 5.19 124 -0.3
James Marvel 103.3 5.7 3.3 1.2 8.3% 14.2% .297 81 5.05 124 0.4
Francisco Morales 62.7 9.8 6.5 1.0 15.4% 23.3% .284 80 4.88 125 0.1
Andrew Baker 48.7 9.2 6.1 1.3 14.3% 21.6% .290 80 5.13 125 -0.3
Dillon Maples 36.0 11.3 8.3 1.0 19.4% 26.5% .265 79 5.60 126 -0.3
Damon Jones 59.3 10.5 6.4 1.4 15.3% 25.2% .295 78 5.28 128 0.0
Zach Linginfelter 48.7 7.8 5.2 1.3 12.6% 18.8% .291 77 5.33 129 -0.1
Mike Adams 53.3 6.6 5.1 1.4 12.0% 15.7% .295 77 5.55 130 -0.3
Trey Cobb 54.7 6.9 4.1 1.2 10.2% 17.2% .293 76 5.09 131 -0.4
Jonathan Hennigan 48.0 7.9 6.4 1.1 15.0% 18.5% .298 76 5.40 131 -0.4
Colton Eastman 82.7 7.1 5.2 1.4 12.5% 16.9% .295 76 5.48 131 0.1
Aaron Barrett 26.3 8.2 4.8 1.7 11.6% 19.8% .303 76 5.62 132 -0.3
Erubiel Armenta 39.3 10.3 7.8 1.1 18.1% 23.9% .283 76 5.49 132 -0.4
Jon Duplantier 77.0 8.9 5.5 1.4 13.3% 21.5% .299 76 5.31 132 -0.1
Mark Appel 48.7 6.8 4.6 1.3 11.4% 16.8% .291 75 5.60 134 -0.2
Jhordany Mezquita 55.0 7.2 5.7 1.3 13.7% 17.3% .295 75 5.57 134 0.0
Brian Marconi 49.7 8.7 7.1 1.3 16.7% 20.5% .295 74 5.65 135 -0.5
James Dykstra 28.7 7.5 4.7 1.6 11.2% 17.9% .310 73 5.42 136 -0.4
Louis Head 41.3 8.9 4.8 1.5 12.0% 22.3% .286 73 5.33 136 -0.3
Erich Uelmen 69.3 7.8 4.5 1.6 11.3% 19.3% .289 73 5.66 138 -0.4
Zach Warren 36.0 9.5 7.3 1.3 16.4% 21.5% .299 72 5.35 139 -0.4
Andrew Schultz 42.0 9.2 7.3 1.1 16.4% 20.8% .292 72 5.51 139 -0.5
Brett Schulze 23.0 9.4 5.5 2.0 13.1% 22.4% .295 71 5.98 141 -0.3

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
José Alvarado Tippy Martinez Rex Brothers John Rocker 1.6 0.0 2.43 4.50
Zack Wheeler Jacob deGrom Mike Mussina Stephen Strasburg 4.6 2.5 2.76 4.08
Aaron Nola Corey Kluber Félix Hernández Zack Greinke 5.2 2.4 2.91 4.43
Ranger Suárez Tom Glavine Jim O’Toole Joe Magrane 3.7 2.1 3.15 4.08
Seranthony Domínguez Ryan Cook Arodys Vizcaíno Francisco Cordero 1.2 -0.1 2.90 4.88
Connor Brogdon Danny Frisella Bob Duliba Juan Carlos Oviedo 1.0 -0.1 3.18 5.06
Corey Knebel Eddie Watt Mike James Turk Wendell 0.9 -0.2 3.32 5.17
Kent Emanuel Sherry Smith Rube Benton Fred Heimach 1.3 0.5 3.55 4.65
Craig Kimbrel Diego Segui Don McMahon Curt Leskanic 1.0 -0.5 2.93 5.68
Jakob Hernandez Chuck Hensley Adam Liberatore Boone Logan 0.7 -0.2 3.40 5.11
Bailey Falter Donovan Osborne John Smiley Carlos Perez 2.3 0.7 3.62 4.78
Yunior Marte Ryan Pressly Tony Menendez Todd Stephan 0.7 -0.3 3.68 5.09
Andrew Bellatti Antonio Osuna Chaz Roe Oliver Drake 0.7 -0.5 3.20 6.01
Jace Fry Josh Edgin Matt Smith Mike Munoz 0.6 -0.3 3.48 5.59
Matt Strahm Dan Schatzeder Tom Hilgendorf Glen Perkins 1.3 -0.1 3.32 5.35
Luis Ortiz Eric Schmitt Rob Brown Rick Henninger 1.0 0.0 3.77 5.17
Taijuan Walker Jordan Zimmermann Homer Bailey Jason Hammel 2.3 0.7 3.92 5.16
Andrew Painter John Urrea Tim Meeks Jarrod Parker 2.1 0.4 3.82 5.27
Trevor Bettencourt Darrell Einertson Kirk Bullinger Adrian Devine 0.4 -0.1 3.85 5.12
Braden Zarbnisky Neil Holland Jerome Gamble Mike Marbry 0.5 -0.2 3.75 5.17
Nick Nelson Bill Mooneyham Denny Bautista 바티스타 Jim Rittwage 0.8 -0.3 3.81 5.44
Brad Hand Jeremy Affeldt Darold Knowles Hal Woodeshick 0.6 -0.6 3.57 5.82
Gregory Soto Hector Mercado George Cappuzzello Justin Wilson 1.0 -0.5 3.74 5.50
Jake Newberry Ricky Trlicek Darryl Scott Adrian Ramirez 0.5 -0.3 3.87 5.30
Sam Coonrod Chris Ray Ed Bauta Gene Harris 0.3 -0.3 3.90 5.36
Cristopher Sánchez Mike Pazik Andy Hassler Jim Kremmel 1.3 0.1 4.02 5.16
Taylor Lehman Steve Krueger Larry Smith Steve Cates 0.5 0.0 3.90 5.30
Michael Plassmeyer Alex Delgado Brian Duensing Ryan Yarbrough 2.0 0.3 3.98 5.25
Hans Crouse Rickey Clark Nicolas Heredia Pat Darcy 1.3 0.2 4.13 5.31
Andrew Vasquez Josh Edgin Renyel Pinto Mike Munoz 0.5 -0.4 3.67 5.90
Ryan Sherriff Jack O’Connor Mike Raczka Willard Hunter 0.2 -0.2 3.84 5.82
Noah Skirrow Willie Martinez Jim Lemasters Joe McIntosh 1.7 0.1 4.09 5.36
Griff McGarry Jeff Jones Rick Ownbey Al Curtis 1.4 -0.2 3.96 5.72
Joe Gatto Cody Eppley Andy Cavazos Jesus Delgado 0.4 -0.5 4.07 5.72
McKinley Moore Al McBean Brian Kolbe Bob Long 0.4 -0.4 4.07 5.48
Bubby Rossman Tom Kramer Mike Capel Sergio Lizarraga 0.9 -0.3 4.03 5.75
Jake Jewell Michael Mariot Jim Dickson Mike Roesler 0.4 -0.6 4.07 5.76
Kyle Dohy Jace Fry Ed Carroll Hunter Cervenka 0.4 -0.5 3.90 5.76
Ethan Lindow Greg Hibbard Jeff Mutis Matt Gage 1.3 0.1 4.35 5.43
Josh Hendrickson Gary Dotter Ron Nischwitz Chet Nichols 0.8 0.0 4.38 5.58
James McArthur Miguel Ruiz Nelson Hiraldo Curran Percival 0.8 -0.1 4.60 5.76
Billy Sullivan Eddy Rodriguez Keith Butler Alejandro Pena 0.4 -0.6 4.28 5.90
Mick Abel Jack McKnight Dan Spillner Francisco Oliveras 1.3 -0.3 4.50 5.80
Matt Seelinger Jason Gilfillan Terry Bross Roman Mendez 0.4 -0.7 4.33 6.19
Jeff Singer Bob Macdonald Dean Hartgraves Fred Green 0.2 -0.6 4.28 6.01
Jack Perkins Ken Grzelaczyk Rickey Keeton Bill Fulton 0.7 -0.2 4.58 5.68
Braeden Ogle Lawrence Groover Jose Ramos Earl Stephenson 0.0 -0.6 4.59 6.00
James Marvel Mike MacDonald Brad Knox Henry Bonilla 1.0 -0.1 4.67 5.61
Francisco Morales Lee Smith Duane Ward Eric Stone 0.6 -0.7 4.45 6.24
Andrew Baker Ty Tice John Stewart Hugo Castellanos 0.1 -0.7 4.45 6.03
Dillon Maples Jason Frasor Fernando Rodney Bob Long 0.2 -0.7 4.15 6.59
Damon Jones Arnold Earley Michael Kirkman Anthony Capra 0.6 -0.6 4.49 6.37
Zach Linginfelter Jonathan Garcia Frank Batista Mike Roesler 0.2 -0.5 4.83 6.21
Mike Adams Joel Pena Jeff Bettendorf Bobby Cassevah 0.1 -0.8 4.76 6.29
Trey Cobb Mike Trujillo Edwin Quirarte Thad Tillotson 0.0 -0.8 4.76 6.31
Jonathan Hennigan Jerry Bostic Phil McCormick Mike Hinckley 0.0 -0.8 4.75 6.30
Colton Eastman Charlie Zink Trevor Clifton Matthew Gayeski 0.5 -0.5 4.99 6.17
Aaron Barrett Dwight Bernard Stew Cliburn Hector Navarro 0.0 -0.6 4.58 6.56
Erubiel Armenta Charlie Hudson Greg Williams Greg Miller 0.0 -0.9 4.64 6.62
Jon Duplantier Matt DeSalvo Al Schroll Jack Hamilton 0.6 -0.9 4.75 6.57
Mark Appel Darrel Akerfelds Bob Chakales Andrew Russell 0.1 -0.6 4.90 6.39
Jhordany Mezquita Tony Gonzalez Dan McGinn Wes Pierorazio 0.3 -0.5 5.05 6.34
Brian Marconi Andrew Faulkner Mike Kinnunen Mark Miggins 0.0 -1.0 4.86 6.56
James Dykstra Harry Fisher Daryl Patterson Jon Huizinga -0.1 -0.7 4.97 6.77
Louis Head Storm Davis Mark Wohlers Matt Karchner 0.1 -0.7 4.67 7.03
Erich Uelmen Paul Clemens Dick Lange Rich Yett 0.0 -1.0 5.13 6.52
Zach Warren Perry Lychak Ernest Gause Russ Rohlicek -0.1 -0.8 4.93 6.79
Andrew Schultz Duane Theiss Dave Sells Mike Newson -0.2 -1.0 5.09 6.94
Brett Schulze Ricardo Aponte Luis Peralta Landon Stockman 0.0 -0.5 5.02 6.70

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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timmer
26 days ago

I enjoyed seeing the trio of Schwarber comps, fun group.