2023 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

There are certainly some weaker spots in the Dodgers’ offense, and a bit less depth than usual, but like the Astros, as long as the top tier of the offense stays relatively intact, this group will still score a serious number of runs. Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Mookie Betts remain in the ultra-elite at their positions, and woe be unto anyone that underestimates these players. Gavin Lux, Chris Taylor, Miguel Vargas, and various fill-ins are also solid parts of the lineup. ZiPS is relatively bullish at DH; it sees J.D. Martinez as having a little more left in him, and Smith filling in doesn’t hurt given his potent bat and the fact that Los Angeles has one of the best backup catchers around in Austin Barnes.

Where ZiPS remains concerned is the non-Mookie outfield positions. Trayce Thompson did terrific work in 2022, and there’s a lot to like about James Outman, but ZiPS is definitely not sold on them necessarily being plan Bs. The LF/CF mix of Thompson, Outman, leftover infielders, Jason Heyward, and a dash of JDM and maybe Bradley Zimmer feels a lot more like the backup plan rather than the one you start April with. It really feels like there should have been a big offseason addition at at least one of these positions.

In the high minors, the Dodgers have their usual array of Interesting Dudes, with ZiPS being especially intrigued by Jorbit Vivas and, to a lesser extent, Andy Pages. Outside of Diego Cartaya, it just doesn’t feel that there are as many huge-upside guys as there usually are, and the system feels a bit light there.

Pitchers

The mid-2023 return of Trevor Bauer has many non-baseball ramifications, but the reduction of his suspension has caused additional payroll complications for the Dodgers. While it seems likely (though I don’t think it’s a certainty) that the team will release him, it will still be responsible for the salary that gets added to the books. Pretty much every exciting starting pitcher is signed now, and Walker Buehler will return in 2024 with a worse projection than the one listed above. The rotation remains quite solid, though it feels a little short of veteran fill-ins should the need arise. ZiPS, however, is optimistic — and Steamer generally agrees — about Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone both becoming the next surprisingly polished plug-in pitching prospects for the team.

The Dodgers may have the least exciting good bullpen in baseball. I don’t mean that in a bad way; just like there’s no ultra-elite pitcher to take the ninth inning, there also isn’t one that’s likely to have grand late-inning meltdowns of much entertainment (for non-Dodgers fans). Shelby Miller comes closest, but assuming he’s in the ‘pen, I’d be surprised if he pitched many high-leverage innings. The relief corps is deep, and ZiPS likes the pool of talent available in the high minors. As I said, this is a good bullpen, just a rather undramatic one, even the hard throwers!

Short of some major trade, the final preseason projections will probably have the Dodgers in a very tight race with the Padres; it will likely be the closest NL West race that ZiPS has forecast in some time, outside of 60-game seasons. But while the Dodgers have problems, with a bit of luck, they could easily win 105 games and lap the NL West.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.