2023 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Dodgers

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Batters

There are certainly some weaker spots in the Dodgers’ offense, and a bit less depth than usual, but like the Astros, as long as the top tier of the offense stays relatively intact, this group will still score a serious number of runs. Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Mookie Betts remain in the ultra-elite at their positions, and woe be unto anyone that underestimates these players. Gavin Lux, Chris Taylor, Miguel Vargas, and various fill-ins are also solid parts of the lineup. ZiPS is relatively bullish at DH; it sees J.D. Martinez as having a little more left in him, and Smith filling in doesn’t hurt given his potent bat and the fact that Los Angeles has one of the best backup catchers around in Austin Barnes.

Where ZiPS remains concerned is the non-Mookie outfield positions. Trayce Thompson did terrific work in 2022, and there’s a lot to like about James Outman, but ZiPS is definitely not sold on them necessarily being plan Bs. The LF/CF mix of Thompson, Outman, leftover infielders, Jason Heyward, and a dash of JDM and maybe Bradley Zimmer feels a lot more like the backup plan rather than the one you start April with. It really feels like there should have been a big offseason addition at at least one of these positions.

In the high minors, the Dodgers have their usual array of Interesting Dudes, with ZiPS being especially intrigued by Jorbit Vivas and, to a lesser extent, Andy Pages. Outside of Diego Cartaya, it just doesn’t feel that there are as many huge-upside guys as there usually are, and the system feels a bit light there.

Pitchers

The mid-2023 return of Trevor Bauer has many non-baseball ramifications, but the reduction of his suspension has caused additional payroll complications for the Dodgers. While it seems likely (though I don’t think it’s a certainty) that the team will release him, it will still be responsible for the salary that gets added to the books. Pretty much every exciting starting pitcher is signed now, and Walker Buehler will return in 2024 with a worse projection than the one listed above. The rotation remains quite solid, though it feels a little short of veteran fill-ins should the need arise. ZiPS, however, is optimistic — and Steamer generally agrees — about Bobby Miller and Gavin Stone both becoming the next surprisingly polished plug-in pitching prospects for the team.

The Dodgers may have the least exciting good bullpen in baseball. I don’t mean that in a bad way; just like there’s no ultra-elite pitcher to take the ninth inning, there also isn’t one that’s likely to have grand late-inning meltdowns of much entertainment (for non-Dodgers fans). Shelby Miller comes closest, but assuming he’s in the ‘pen, I’d be surprised if he pitched many high-leverage innings. The relief corps is deep, and ZiPS likes the pool of talent available in the high minors. As I said, this is a good bullpen, just a rather undramatic one, even the hard throwers!

Short of some major trade, the final preseason projections will probably have the Dodgers in a very tight race with the Padres; it will likely be the closest NL West race that ZiPS has forecast in some time, outside of 60-game seasons. But while the Dodgers have problems, with a bit of luck, they could easily win 105 games and lap the NL West.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Mookie Betts R 30 RF 616 538 111 145 32 3 29 89 66 97 12 3
Will Smith R 28 C 544 466 72 120 24 2 26 84 59 100 2 1
Freddie Freeman L 33 1B 655 569 105 167 33 2 27 107 77 101 9 2
Max Muncy L 32 3B 559 464 79 103 21 1 26 75 83 136 2 1
Miguel Vargas R 23 3B 582 521 86 138 28 2 17 79 50 105 9 3
Gavin Lux L 25 2B 515 461 74 120 20 5 11 65 50 107 7 2
James Outman L 26 RF 534 478 72 108 21 5 21 80 45 177 8 4
Jorbit Vivas L 22 2B 565 505 67 128 20 5 9 69 38 75 2 1
Andy Pages R 22 RF 574 510 65 115 26 2 24 80 46 174 3 2
J.D. Martinez R 35 DH 559 501 72 128 30 1 22 79 50 139 0 1
Austin Barnes R 33 C 248 215 33 50 10 0 7 32 26 53 2 1
Chris Taylor R 32 LF 471 415 59 97 23 3 14 61 47 147 9 1
Trayce Thompson R 32 LF 395 353 48 77 15 2 20 70 37 142 4 1
Michael Busch L 25 2B 570 504 81 116 29 0 22 86 52 172 2 2
Jacob Amaya R 24 SS 545 487 65 109 20 3 12 55 51 131 3 2
Jonny DeLuca R 24 RF 437 398 57 95 19 4 18 66 30 91 8 1
Jason Martin L 27 RF 475 429 63 100 19 3 21 74 41 126 5 4
Eddys Leonard R 22 SS 566 515 71 118 24 3 15 78 33 150 3 3
Kevin Pillar R 34 CF 369 342 51 86 17 2 14 56 17 67 5 3
Edwin Ríos L 29 3B 343 310 42 67 15 1 17 52 24 125 0 1
Yonny Hernandez B 25 2B 417 358 50 80 10 3 1 37 45 75 24 8
Tomás Telis B 32 C 348 325 34 86 11 1 5 37 19 45 1 1
Jason Heyward L 33 CF 358 320 39 74 14 2 9 38 33 72 4 1
Diego Cartaya R 21 C 430 377 57 81 17 1 18 67 39 142 0 1
Patrick Mazeika L 29 C 323 295 29 70 15 0 8 42 19 56 0 1
Devin Mann R 26 2B 462 410 51 92 22 2 13 58 40 117 2 2
Hanser Alberto R 30 2B 336 321 34 85 17 2 4 33 8 40 2 2
Steven Duggar L 29 CF 326 295 40 62 12 2 7 32 28 115 10 2
Bradley Zimmer L 30 CF 308 267 41 53 9 1 7 33 24 111 12 4
Drew Avans L 27 CF 449 403 64 92 15 6 7 57 39 128 21 5
Justin Yurchak L 26 1B 434 392 50 103 19 1 8 49 36 85 1 1
Stefen Romero R 34 RF 111 98 13 22 6 0 2 15 8 27 1 1
Ryan Ward L 25 LF 484 450 59 103 17 2 19 65 28 136 3 2
Yeiner Fernandez R 20 C 401 366 50 89 14 1 6 44 25 72 1 2
Josh Stowers R 26 CF 391 351 45 67 13 2 10 50 30 135 11 4
Jahmai Jones R 25 2B 418 378 45 82 15 3 8 51 32 105 6 4
Luis Yanel Diaz R 23 3B 396 368 47 78 13 4 13 52 21 152 11 5
Jose Ramos R 22 RF 520 475 61 103 21 4 18 71 34 189 2 1
Ty Kelly B 34 2B 167 152 16 31 5 1 1 12 13 47 1 1
Buddy Reed B 28 CF 258 234 26 46 9 1 4 26 18 93 8 3
Brandon Lewis R 24 1B 435 405 52 84 17 1 20 62 22 157 0 1
Ismael Alcantara R 24 CF 376 342 41 70 10 4 8 56 20 114 6 4
Hunter Feduccia L 26 C 336 304 38 69 15 1 10 43 29 91 0 1
Austin Gauthier R 24 SS 446 381 55 78 14 3 4 53 56 128 5 2
Aldrich De Jongh L 24 LF 236 218 25 45 8 2 5 28 16 80 2 1
Tony Wolters L 31 C 280 250 24 51 9 1 2 23 22 74 0 1
Imanol Vargas L 25 1B 423 377 46 76 13 2 15 66 41 162 2 1
Kody Hoese R 25 3B 310 290 29 62 11 1 5 32 15 87 1 1
Carson Taylor B 24 C 315 287 32 65 11 0 5 37 24 81 0 1
Kenneth Betancourt R 23 2B 364 341 42 76 16 1 2 28 18 83 3 2
Ryan January L 26 C 256 217 27 36 9 0 7 31 29 103 0 1
Omar Estévez R 25 DH 359 330 37 72 16 0 6 34 24 99 0 1
Hamlet Marte R 29 DH 196 180 12 30 5 1 2 16 13 85 1 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Mookie Betts 616 .270 .354 .502 130 .232 .282 8 4.6 .365
Will Smith 544 .258 .351 .485 125 .227 .276 3 4.6 .356
Freddie Freeman 655 .293 .382 .501 138 .207 .317 0 4.3 .374
Max Muncy 559 .222 .347 .440 113 .218 .255 -2 2.9 .342
Miguel Vargas 582 .265 .333 .424 105 .159 .303 -1 2.6 .328
Gavin Lux 515 .260 .332 .397 98 .137 .318 2 2.2 .318
James Outman 534 .226 .303 .423 95 .197 .311 10 1.9 .314
Jorbit Vivas 565 .253 .326 .366 89 .113 .283 2 1.7 .305
Andy Pages 574 .225 .305 .425 96 .200 .292 5 1.6 .315
J.D. Martinez 559 .255 .326 .451 109 .196 .312 0 1.5 .332
Austin Barnes 248 .233 .325 .377 91 .144 .277 5 1.5 .309
Chris Taylor 471 .234 .318 .405 96 .171 .327 4 1.4 .314
Trayce Thompson 395 .218 .299 .442 98 .224 .298 5 1.4 .318
Michael Busch 570 .230 .312 .419 97 .188 .303 -8 1.3 .318
Jacob Amaya 545 .224 .299 .351 77 .127 .282 2 1.2 .287
Jonny DeLuca 437 .239 .300 .442 99 .204 .266 1 1.1 .318
Jason Martin 475 .233 .300 .438 98 .205 .280 3 1.1 .317
Eddys Leonard 566 .229 .295 .375 81 .146 .294 -2 1.1 .294
Kevin Pillar 369 .251 .298 .436 97 .184 .276 -2 1.0 .314
Edwin Ríos 343 .216 .283 .435 92 .219 .298 0 0.8 .306
Yonny Hernandez 417 .223 .324 .277 67 .053 .280 4 0.7 .278
Tomás Telis 348 .265 .310 .351 80 .086 .295 -2 0.7 .291
Jason Heyward 358 .231 .310 .372 85 .141 .272 -2 0.6 .298
Diego Cartaya 430 .215 .309 .408 94 .194 .290 -12 0.6 .312
Patrick Mazeika 323 .237 .295 .369 80 .132 .268 -4 0.4 .291
Devin Mann 462 .224 .303 .383 86 .159 .282 -6 0.4 .300
Hanser Alberto 336 .265 .287 .368 77 .103 .292 1 0.3 .283
Steven Duggar 326 .210 .282 .336 71 .125 .318 2 0.3 .272
Bradley Zimmer 308 .199 .296 .318 68 .120 .309 -1 0.1 .278
Drew Avans 449 .228 .302 .347 77 .119 .317 -7 0.0 .287
Justin Yurchak 434 .263 .327 .378 92 .115 .318 -4 0.0 .310
Stefen Romero 111 .224 .297 .347 75 .122 .290 0 -0.1 .284
Ryan Ward 484 .229 .279 .402 83 .173 .285 -2 -0.2 .293
Yeiner Fernandez 401 .243 .304 .336 75 .093 .288 -10 -0.3 .284
Josh Stowers 391 .191 .267 .325 60 .134 .277 0 -0.3 .262
Jahmai Jones 418 .217 .285 .336 69 .119 .279 -3 -0.3 .274
Luis Yanel Diaz 396 .212 .261 .375 71 .163 .320 -3 -0.3 .275
Jose Ramos 520 .217 .279 .392 80 .175 .317 -3 -0.4 .290
Ty Kelly 167 .204 .269 .270 48 .066 .288 0 -0.5 .243
Buddy Reed 258 .197 .258 .295 50 .098 .307 1 -0.5 .244
Brandon Lewis 435 .207 .257 .402 76 .195 .281 1 -0.5 .282
Ismael Alcantara 376 .205 .264 .327 60 .123 .282 -1 -0.5 .261
Hunter Feduccia 336 .227 .295 .382 83 .155 .291 -15 -0.6 .295
Austin Gauthier 446 .205 .314 .289 66 .084 .297 -11 -0.6 .277
Aldrich De Jongh 236 .206 .263 .330 60 .124 .301 1 -0.6 .258
Tony Wolters 280 .204 .280 .272 52 .068 .282 -4 -0.7 .249
Imanol Vargas 423 .202 .286 .366 76 .164 .305 -3 -0.7 .287
Kody Hoese 310 .214 .255 .310 53 .097 .288 0 -0.7 .248
Carson Taylor 315 .226 .289 .317 65 .091 .299 -11 -0.9 .270
Kenneth Betancourt 364 .223 .262 .293 52 .070 .289 -2 -1.0 .246
Ryan January 256 .166 .289 .304 62 .138 .271 -13 -1.1 .271
Omar Estévez 359 .218 .273 .321 61 .103 .293 0 -1.1 .262
Hamlet Marte 196 .167 .224 .239 27 .072 .301 0 -1.5 .209

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Mookie Betts Joe Judge Ryan Klesko Billy Williams
Will Smith Roy Campanella Mickey Cochrane Bill Freehan
Freddie Freeman Keith Hernandez Augie Galan Paul Waner
Max Muncy Darrell Evans Harlond Clift Hank Thompson
Miguel Vargas Kevin Young Pete Ward Edgardo Alfonzo
Gavin Lux Jack Perconte Lou Whitaker Abraham Toro
James Outman Corey Brown Curtis Granderson Ricky Ledee
Jorbit Vivas Bill Oplinger Ruben Tejada John Skorochocki
Andy Pages Cody Bellinger Shawn Gallagher Deron Johnson
J.D. Martinez Joe Brovia Kevin Millar Derrek Lee
Austin Barnes Sal Butera Hal Wagner Marv Foley
Chris Taylor Fred Lewis Steve Henderson Carroll Hardy
Trayce Thompson Colby Rasmus Chet Laabs Ron Gant
Michael Busch Alex Gordon Andre Rodgers Jim Lefebvre
Jacob Amaya Sam Khalifa Dave Berg Ramon Vazquez
Jonny DeLuca Walt Bond Roy Foster Barry Jones
Jason Martin Tuffy Rhodes Colby Rasmus Dwayne Hosey
Eddys Leonard Jhonny Peralta Jake Lemmerman Fritz Brickell
Kevin Pillar Carl Reynolds Jack Tobin Jody Gerut
Edwin Ríos Juan Francisco Brandon Larson Zach Green
Yonny Hernandez Callix Crabbe Julio Cruz Terrence Freeman
Tomás Telis Dave Ricketts Jamie Burke Hal Naragon
Jason Heyward Mike Huff Bill Tuttle Stu Pederson
Diego Cartaya Justin Huber Ozzie Virgil Tom Egan
Patrick Mazeika Lavern Grace Rene Friol Randy Gomez
Devin Mann John Powers Corban Joseph Alex Blandino
Hanser Alberto Mario Diaz Gus Polidor Emil Verban
Steven Duggar Chris Powell Darnell Sweeney Sebastien Boucher
Bradley Zimmer Chris Powell Sebastien Boucher Glen Barker
Drew Avans Ed Stroud Xavier Avery John Andreoli
Justin Yurchak Francisco Melendez Phil Trombino Donald Anderson
Stefen Romero Jim Wohlford Jon Weber Lou Merloni
Ryan Ward Jason Felice Craig Brazell Brennan Boesch
Yeiner Fernandez Mike Lieberthal Ramon Cabrera Yadier Molina
Josh Stowers Josh Burrus Travis Becktel Steve Martin
Jahmai Jones Brian Friday Rich Amaral Kirk Mendenhall
Luis Yanel Diaz Phil Hiatt Chico Vaughns Ridge Hoopii-Haslam
Jose Ramos Mike Vail Pete Tucci Mike Stellern
Ty Kelly Neil Berry Cliff Pennington Tripp Cromer
Buddy Reed Carroll Hardy Bobby Andrews Trey Martin
Brandon Lewis Tary Scott Joe Zagarino Matt Rose
Ismael Alcantara Claudio Ozoria Kuo Hui Lo Steve Martin
Hunter Feduccia Jed Morris Mike Martin Henry Blanco
Austin Gauthier Brian Grebeck Dave Corman Scott Wingo
Aldrich De Jongh John Johnson Taylor Kohlwey Dickens Benoit
Tony Wolters Paul Bako Ray Lamanno Emerson Frostad
Imanol Vargas Eric Crozier Evan Edwards Billy Max
Kody Hoese Layne Lambert Juan Villanueva Jonathan Laureano
Carson Taylor Joe Azcue Lloyd Flodin Frank Colston
Kenneth Betancourt Dan Adams Luis Gonzalez Chris Miyake
Ryan January Jose Fernandez Virgil Bernhardt Darren Daulton
Omar Estévez Brad Haynal Nick Salotti Jerry Kudajeski
Hamlet Marte Aaron Brill Zach Welz Malcolm Cepeda

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Mookie Betts .291 .375 .563 148 5.8 .250 .332 .461 114 3.2
Will Smith .282 .377 .541 145 5.9 .234 .325 .432 106 3.3
Freddie Freeman .316 .405 .553 155 5.7 .268 .359 .457 121 2.7
Max Muncy .244 .369 .497 133 4.1 .197 .321 .374 92 1.6
Miguel Vargas .291 .362 .482 127 4.2 .241 .310 .378 90 1.4
Gavin Lux .283 .358 .444 117 3.5 .235 .301 .351 80 1.0
James Outman .252 .329 .487 120 3.5 .200 .276 .363 75 0.5
Jorbit Vivas .284 .353 .413 106 2.9 .226 .298 .325 71 0.4
Andy Pages .251 .331 .476 115 3.0 .199 .279 .373 78 0.2
J.D. Martinez .279 .351 .503 127 2.8 .228 .302 .402 90 0.2
Austin Barnes .259 .353 .433 112 2.1 .204 .297 .322 71 0.9
Chris Taylor .257 .340 .454 114 2.4 .208 .289 .350 76 0.3
Trayce Thompson .244 .321 .499 119 2.4 .192 .272 .370 74 0.2
Michael Busch .255 .336 .476 113 2.4 .208 .288 .368 77 -0.1
Jacob Amaya .250 .325 .398 95 2.4 .200 .274 .309 59 0.1
Jonny DeLuca .265 .327 .510 122 2.4 .212 .276 .387 79 0.1
Jason Martin .258 .323 .501 119 2.4 .207 .272 .389 79 0.1
Eddys Leonard .255 .322 .434 102 2.6 .206 .275 .335 65 0.0
Kevin Pillar .276 .322 .488 116 1.8 .224 .274 .384 78 0.1
Edwin Ríos .242 .306 .504 114 1.8 .191 .259 .384 74 0.1
Yonny Hernandez .245 .351 .306 80 1.5 .195 .296 .245 51 -0.2
Tomás Telis .291 .335 .391 96 1.4 .235 .284 .313 63 0.0
Jason Heyward .259 .340 .434 106 1.5 .205 .286 .324 66 -0.3
Diego Cartaya .246 .341 .485 119 1.9 .185 .279 .344 69 -0.7
Patrick Mazeika .275 .332 .437 106 1.4 .206 .265 .318 60 -0.4
Devin Mann .246 .326 .432 103 1.3 .198 .281 .339 68 -0.7
Hanser Alberto .299 .318 .412 95 1.1 .238 .260 .325 58 -0.6
Steven Duggar .238 .312 .385 91 1.0 .184 .254 .294 51 -0.6
Bradley Zimmer .228 .329 .374 90 0.9 .174 .272 .275 51 -0.6
Drew Avans .255 .325 .394 95 1.1 .203 .274 .299 57 -1.1
Justin Yurchak .289 .355 .420 108 0.9 .233 .298 .337 74 -1.0
Stefen Romero .253 .323 .405 95 0.2 .199 .270 .302 56 -0.4
Ryan Ward .255 .304 .459 103 1.1 .205 .254 .349 63 -1.5
Yeiner Fernandez .274 .330 .378 92 0.6 .219 .277 .296 57 -1.2
Josh Stowers .218 .295 .373 80 0.6 .167 .241 .287 44 -1.1
Jahmai Jones .243 .311 .387 87 0.7 .194 .262 .302 53 -1.1
Luis Yanel Diaz .238 .287 .428 92 0.8 .186 .234 .320 50 -1.4
Jose Ramos .241 .307 .451 103 1.0 .192 .255 .347 63 -1.6
Ty Kelly .237 .301 .316 67 -0.1 .173 .240 .231 31 -0.8
Buddy Reed .225 .286 .339 69 0.1 .170 .231 .257 34 -1.0
Brandon Lewis .229 .279 .455 94 0.5 .178 .231 .352 56 -1.7
Ismael Alcantara .235 .293 .373 80 0.4 .183 .241 .282 44 -1.3
Hunter Feduccia .256 .324 .438 104 0.3 .198 .267 .325 61 -1.5
Austin Gauthier .230 .338 .334 81 0.2 .183 .290 .256 51 -1.5
Aldrich De Jongh .233 .289 .382 80 0.0 .178 .239 .280 43 -1.1
Tony Wolters .236 .311 .314 71 0.0 .175 .243 .233 35 -1.3
Imanol Vargas .229 .313 .419 94 0.3 .174 .255 .311 54 -1.9
Kody Hoese .242 .281 .357 71 0.0 .187 .226 .272 36 -1.4
Carson Taylor .256 .317 .360 83 -0.1 .196 .264 .275 48 -1.6
Kenneth Betancourt .248 .288 .328 66 -0.3 .198 .238 .262 38 -1.7
Ryan January .194 .321 .364 84 -0.4 .136 .259 .243 40 -1.8
Omar Estévez .245 .298 .368 79 -0.3 .192 .243 .280 43 -2.0
Hamlet Marte .197 .251 .283 46 -1.0 .144 .197 .202 10 -1.9

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Julio Urías L 26 15 7 3.19 30 28 163.7 138 58 19 35 158
Evan Phillips R 28 6 2 3.20 55 0 56.3 44 20 5 21 67
Clayton Kershaw L 35 10 5 3.26 22 22 121.3 107 44 17 25 129
Walker Buehler R 28 10 5 3.29 24 24 145.0 123 53 16 33 143
Caleb Ferguson L 26 2 1 3.31 54 3 51.7 42 19 5 21 58
Brusdar Graterol R 24 5 3 3.36 50 2 56.3 49 21 5 15 54
Blake Treinen R 35 5 3 3.40 47 0 47.7 40 18 5 17 50
Alex Vesia L 27 4 2 3.41 59 0 58.0 42 22 8 24 80
Tony Gonsolin R 29 10 5 3.54 24 23 112.0 94 44 14 37 105
Dustin May R 25 6 3 3.55 20 17 83.7 70 33 10 25 88
Phil Bickford R 27 3 1 3.56 60 0 60.7 51 24 9 16 67
J.P. Feyereisen R 30 5 3 3.59 44 1 47.7 39 19 7 21 53
Noah Syndergaard R 30 11 7 3.71 25 24 140.7 141 58 17 32 113
Yency Almonte R 29 2 0 3.78 46 0 50.0 42 21 6 19 53
Nick Robertson R 24 3 1 3.86 47 2 63.0 59 27 8 23 63
Darien Núñez L 30 3 2 3.89 28 1 41.7 35 18 7 18 55
Daniel Hudson R 36 4 3 3.96 40 0 38.7 35 17 7 13 45
Sam Gaviglio 가빌리오 R 33 4 3 4.04 20 6 62.3 61 28 8 19 51
Danny Duffy L 34 5 3 4.05 16 15 80.0 74 36 13 29 81
Gavin Stone R 24 7 5 4.08 24 23 106.0 99 48 14 36 103
Daniel Zamora L 30 3 3 4.10 43 1 52.7 50 24 6 23 52
Bobby Miller R 24 7 5 4.13 23 21 100.3 94 46 12 30 82
Landon Knack R 25 7 4 4.16 18 18 67.0 65 31 8 27 58
Justin Bruihl L 26 3 3 4.17 46 1 54.0 52 25 7 20 41
Trevor Bauer R 32 7 6 4.19 17 17 109.7 95 51 20 42 123
Victor González L 27 3 2 4.20 36 5 49.3 48 23 7 20 46
Ryan Pepiot R 25 7 5 4.21 26 22 109.0 95 51 17 49 119
Justin Hagenman R 26 5 3 4.28 40 2 61.0 60 29 9 19 54
Jake Reed R 30 2 2 4.30 35 1 44.0 42 21 5 17 41
Marshall Kasowski R 28 1 1 4.30 41 1 44.0 39 21 6 28 50
Carlo Reyes R 24 3 3 4.31 31 5 56.3 58 27 9 18 45
Nick Nastrini R 23 5 5 4.32 26 26 106.3 94 51 17 53 120
Carson Fulmer R 29 5 4 4.33 46 1 54.0 48 26 6 31 53
Pedro Báez R 35 2 2 4.35 33 2 31.0 30 15 4 13 24
Jimmy Nelson R 34 2 2 4.36 18 3 33.0 28 16 4 22 42
Emmet Sheehan R 23 6 5 4.42 24 16 75.3 69 37 10 37 70
Adam Kolarek L 34 2 2 4.44 46 0 46.7 48 23 5 19 32
Bryan Hudson L 26 4 3 4.44 33 1 52.7 51 26 8 23 51
Keegan Curtis R 27 5 4 4.46 30 2 38.3 38 19 5 15 34
Adolfo Ramirez R 24 3 2 4.50 21 3 56.0 55 28 10 19 55
Jose Adames R 30 3 2 4.50 35 0 40.0 34 20 5 29 48
Yefry Ramírez 라미레즈 R 29 3 3 4.52 19 13 71.7 72 36 10 32 62
Hansel Robles R 32 2 3 4.99 51 1 48.7 48 27 7 24 45
Michael Grove R 26 3 3 4.59 23 20 86.3 86 44 15 35 85
Jordan Leasure R 24 2 2 4.59 44 0 51.0 49 26 8 21 43
Shelby Miller R 32 3 3 4.62 33 4 50.7 48 26 8 23 54
Kyle Hurt R 25 6 4 4.70 22 16 61.3 55 32 9 38 66
Mark Washington R 27 3 3 4.71 37 1 49.7 50 26 8 24 43
Lael Lockhart L 25 3 3 4.74 24 14 95.0 99 50 15 41 72
Andre Jackson R 27 4 5 4.82 23 18 84.0 84 45 14 47 77
Yadier Álvarez R 27 2 2 4.84 20 0 22.3 23 12 3 13 18
Aaron Ochsenbein R 27 3 2 4.85 31 1 39.0 39 21 7 16 35
Keone Kela R 30 2 2 4.88 30 1 27.7 26 15 5 16 28
Robbie Erlin L 32 3 3 4.93 23 10 65.7 76 36 11 26 50
James Jones L 34 2 1 4.97 26 0 29.0 27 16 5 17 31
Beau Burrows R 26 6 5 4.98 26 13 85.0 88 47 13 43 69
Jon Duplantier R 28 3 4 4.98 28 13 77.7 76 43 12 44 76
Alec Gamboa L 26 6 6 5.03 25 6 73.3 79 41 12 35 52
Heath Hembree R 34 3 3 5.05 39 0 35.7 35 20 8 16 38
Dellin Betances R 35 1 1 5.14 15 4 14.0 13 8 1 9 12
Logan Salow L 28 1 2 5.18 34 1 40.0 35 23 6 32 45
Kendall Williams R 22 4 4 5.22 25 22 98.3 110 57 18 42 67
John Rooney L 26 4 5 5.24 20 15 79.0 83 46 14 40 67
Tanner Dodson R 26 2 2 5.26 29 1 37.7 40 22 5 24 29
Jose Martinez R 24 4 4 5.26 26 7 65.0 74 38 11 28 39
Jake Cantleberry L 25 2 3 5.40 30 0 38.3 39 23 7 25 35
Cole Percival R 24 2 3 5.48 31 5 65.7 70 40 11 41 47
Dakota Chalmers R 26 2 2 5.79 15 11 42.0 42 27 8 34 40
Bobby Wahl R 31 0 1 6.00 15 0 12.0 13 8 3 11 13

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Julio Urías 163.7 8.7 1.9 1.0 5.4% 24.2% .270 130 3.48 77 3.8
Evan Phillips 56.3 10.7 3.4 0.8 9.0% 28.6% .283 130 3.26 77 0.9
Clayton Kershaw 121.3 9.6 1.9 1.3 5.1% 26.2% .284 127 3.52 79 2.7
Walker Buehler 145.0 8.9 2.0 1.0 5.7% 24.5% .275 126 3.40 79 3.2
Caleb Ferguson 51.7 10.1 3.7 0.9 9.7% 26.9% .282 126 3.62 80 0.7
Brusdar Graterol 56.3 8.6 2.4 0.8 6.5% 23.3% .284 124 3.46 81 0.9
Blake Treinen 47.7 9.4 3.2 0.9 8.5% 25.1% .280 122 3.61 82 0.7
Alex Vesia 58.0 12.4 3.7 1.2 10.1% 33.6% .272 122 3.58 82 0.8
Tony Gonsolin 112.0 8.4 3.0 1.1 8.0% 22.6% .264 118 3.97 85 2.2
Dustin May 83.7 9.5 2.7 1.1 7.3% 25.7% .276 117 3.79 85 1.6
Phil Bickford 60.7 9.9 2.4 1.3 6.5% 27.3% .275 117 3.76 86 0.6
J.P. Feyereisen 47.7 10.0 4.0 1.3 10.4% 26.4% .269 116 4.16 86 0.6
Noah Syndergaard 140.7 7.2 2.0 1.1 5.5% 19.3% .294 112 3.89 89 2.5
Yency Almonte 50.0 9.5 3.4 1.1 9.0% 25.2% .277 110 3.91 91 0.4
Nick Robertson 63.0 9.0 3.3 1.1 8.5% 23.2% .295 108 4.04 93 0.6
Darien Núñez 41.7 11.9 3.9 1.5 10.1% 30.7% .292 107 4.07 94 0.4
Daniel Hudson 38.7 10.5 3.0 1.6 7.9% 27.4% .289 105 4.34 95 0.3
Sam Gaviglio 62.3 7.4 2.7 1.2 7.2% 19.3% .288 103 4.24 97 0.7
Danny Duffy 80.0 9.1 3.3 1.5 8.5% 23.8% .284 103 4.48 97 1.1
Gavin Stone 106.0 8.7 3.1 1.2 8.0% 22.8% .290 102 4.00 98 1.6
Daniel Zamora 52.7 8.9 3.9 1.0 10.0% 22.7% .301 101 4.08 99 0.3
Bobby Miller 100.3 7.4 2.7 1.1 7.1% 19.4% .279 101 4.21 99 1.4
Landon Knack 67.0 7.8 3.6 1.1 9.3% 20.1% .292 100 4.27 100 0.9
Justin Bruihl 54.0 6.8 3.3 1.2 8.6% 17.6% .278 100 4.65 100 0.2
Trevor Bauer 109.7 10.1 3.4 1.6 9.1% 26.6% .274 99 4.62 101 1.4
Victor González 49.3 8.4 3.6 1.3 9.3% 21.3% .293 99 4.53 101 0.5
Ryan Pepiot 109.0 9.8 4.0 1.4 10.4% 25.3% .280 99 4.59 101 1.4
Justin Hagenman 61.0 8.0 2.8 1.3 7.3% 20.7% .290 97 4.43 103 0.3
Jake Reed 44.0 8.4 3.5 1.0 8.9% 21.5% .296 97 4.27 103 0.2
Marshall Kasowski 44.0 10.2 5.7 1.2 14.1% 25.3% .295 97 4.63 103 0.2
Carlo Reyes 56.3 7.2 2.9 1.4 7.4% 18.6% .290 96 4.64 104 0.5
Nick Nastrini 106.3 10.2 4.5 1.4 11.3% 25.6% .286 96 4.64 104 1.2
Carson Fulmer 54.0 8.8 5.2 1.0 12.8% 21.8% .286 96 4.52 104 0.2
Pedro Báez 31.0 7.0 3.8 1.2 9.7% 17.9% .280 95 4.64 105 0.2
Jimmy Nelson 33.0 11.5 6.0 1.1 14.6% 27.8% .304 95 4.46 105 0.3
Emmet Sheehan 75.3 8.4 4.4 1.2 11.2% 21.3% .281 94 4.65 106 0.8
Adam Kolarek 46.7 6.2 3.7 1.0 9.3% 15.6% .293 94 4.78 107 0.0
Bryan Hudson 52.7 8.7 3.9 1.4 10.0% 22.1% .295 94 4.67 107 0.1
Keegan Curtis 38.3 8.0 3.5 1.2 9.0% 20.4% .297 93 4.48 107 0.2
Adolfo Ramirez 56.0 8.8 3.1 1.6 7.8% 22.6% .292 92 4.74 108 0.3
Jose Adames 40.0 10.8 6.5 1.1 15.3% 25.4% .293 92 4.93 108 0.0
Yefry Ramírez 71.7 7.8 4.0 1.3 10.1% 19.5% .295 92 4.79 109 0.6
Hansel Robles 48.7 8.3 4.4 1.3 11.1% 20.7% .295 90 4.78 111 0.0
Michael Grove 86.3 8.9 3.6 1.6 9.1% 22.2% .297 91 4.69 110 0.8
Jordan Leasure 51.0 7.6 3.7 1.4 9.5% 19.5% .279 91 4.74 110 -0.1
Shelby Miller 50.7 9.6 4.1 1.4 10.4% 24.3% .296 90 4.55 111 0.2
Kyle Hurt 61.3 9.7 5.6 1.3 13.5% 23.5% .288 89 5.01 113 0.4
Mark Washington 49.7 7.8 4.3 1.4 10.8% 19.4% .292 88 5.15 113 -0.1
Lael Lockhart 95.0 6.8 3.9 1.4 9.7% 17.1% .290 88 5.05 114 0.6
Andre Jackson 84.0 8.3 5.0 1.5 12.2% 20.1% .293 86 5.27 116 0.5
Yadier Álvarez 22.3 7.3 5.2 1.2 12.3% 17.0% .299 86 5.30 116 -0.1
Aaron Ochsenbein 39.0 8.1 3.7 1.6 9.3% 20.3% .288 86 5.00 117 -0.1
Keone Kela 27.7 9.1 5.2 1.6 12.9% 22.6% .284 85 5.21 117 0.0
Robbie Erlin 65.7 6.9 3.6 1.5 8.7% 16.8% .314 84 5.13 119 0.2
James Jones 29.0 9.6 5.3 1.6 12.9% 23.5% .289 84 5.43 119 -0.2
Beau Burrows 85.0 7.3 4.6 1.4 11.2% 18.0% .294 84 5.21 120 0.3
Jon Duplantier 77.7 8.8 5.1 1.4 12.5% 21.6% .296 83 5.17 120 0.2
Alec Gamboa 73.3 6.4 4.3 1.5 10.5% 15.6% .293 83 5.42 121 0.0
Heath Hembree 35.7 9.6 4.0 2.0 10.2% 24.2% .287 82 5.37 121 -0.2
Dellin Betances 14.0 7.7 5.8 0.6 13.8% 18.5% .293 81 5.15 124 0.0
Logan Salow 40.0 10.1 7.2 1.4 16.8% 23.6% .287 80 5.55 125 -0.2
Kendall Williams 98.3 6.1 3.8 1.6 9.4% 15.0% .295 80 5.57 126 0.2
John Rooney 79.0 7.6 4.6 1.6 11.2% 18.7% .296 79 5.51 126 0.1
Tanner Dodson 37.7 6.9 5.7 1.2 13.5% 16.3% .302 79 5.49 126 -0.2
Jose Martinez 65.0 5.4 3.9 1.5 9.5% 13.2% .294 79 5.72 127 -0.1
Jake Cantleberry 38.3 8.2 5.9 1.6 14.0% 19.6% .294 77 5.74 130 -0.4
Cole Percival 65.7 6.4 5.6 1.5 13.4% 15.3% .289 76 6.00 132 -0.3
Dakota Chalmers 42.0 8.6 7.3 1.7 16.8% 19.8% .291 72 6.37 139 -0.2
Bobby Wahl 12.0 9.8 8.3 2.3 18.0% 21.3% .313 69 6.99 144 -0.3

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Julio Urías Ken Holtzman Tom Glavine Vida Blue 4.6 2.8 2.80 3.71
Evan Phillips Manny Delcarmen Jason Isringhausen Jeff Nelson 1.5 0.2 2.40 4.43
Clayton Kershaw Harry Brecheen Cliff Lee Jerry Reuss 3.5 1.8 2.69 4.15
Walker Buehler Jordan Zimmermann Steve Rogers Josh Johnson 4.0 2.2 2.80 3.89
Caleb Ferguson Scott Radinsky Bob McClure Kent Mercker 1.1 0.2 2.66 4.21
Brusdar Graterol Milt Hill Alan Guerrero Brad Clontz 1.3 0.4 2.78 4.12
Blake Treinen Fernando Rodney Pedro Strop Roberto Hernandez 1.3 0.1 2.52 4.46
Alex Vesia Kevin Siegrist Kent Mercker Jesse Orosco 1.4 0.1 2.59 4.69
Tony Gonsolin Clay Buchholz Mort Cooper Elmer Riddle 2.9 1.3 3.02 4.27
Dustin May Michael Pineda Bart Johnson Griffin Canning 2.2 1.0 2.93 4.09
Phil Bickford Danny Barnes Justin Speier Silvino Bracho 1.1 -0.1 2.90 4.71
J.P. Feyereisen Rich Garces Eddie Watt Evan Meek 에반 1.0 0.0 2.87 4.76
Noah Syndergaard Jordan Zimmermann Miles Mikolas Ivan Nova 3.2 1.6 3.33 4.21
Yency Almonte Marvin Freeman Justin Miller Aurelio Monteagudo 0.8 -0.1 3.16 4.61
Nick Robertson Juan Arias Randy Moffitt Leo Medrano 1.1 0.1 3.30 4.49
Darien Núñez Mark Lukasiewicz Nick Hagadone Yorkis Perez 0.9 -0.1 3.00 5.13
Daniel Hudson Jay Howell Hoyt Wilhelm Tom Henke 0.7 -0.3 2.66 5.71
Sam Gaviglio Dave Hillman Reggie Cleveland Russ Kemmerer 1.2 0.3 3.44 4.68
Danny Duffy Al Downing Ed Brandt Mel Parnell 1.6 0.4 3.53 4.81
Gavin Stone Tom Dukes Brad Rigby Esmil Rogers 로저스 2.3 0.7 3.52 4.80
Daniel Zamora Cesar Jimenez Dennis Miscik Fred Kipp 0.8 -0.2 3.40 5.08
Bobby Miller Jordan Lyles Bob Forsch Geremi Gonzalez 2.0 0.7 3.67 4.69
Landon Knack Pat Darcy Len Clendenin Mark Hutton 1.2 0.4 3.79 4.76
Justin Bruihl Mike Davey Sam Moll Brad Wheeler 0.6 -0.2 3.62 4.80
Trevor Bauer Sonny Siebert Tex Carleton Yu Darvish 2.0 0.6 3.64 4.87
Victor González Efrain Valdez 발데스 Scott Alexander Ray King 0.9 0.1 3.58 4.92
Ryan Pepiot Mudcat Grant Darryl Kile A.J. Burnett 2.2 0.5 3.71 4.86
Justin Hagenman Darrell Whitaker Jeff Gray Jack Hardy 0.9 -0.1 3.55 4.89
Jake Reed Kevin Campbell Randy Scarbery Salvador Garibay 0.6 -0.2 3.54 5.22
Marshall Kasowski Mike Cook Mike Butcher Ryan Garton 0.5 -0.4 3.68 5.42
Carlo Reyes John Littlefield Brian Smith Ryan Larson 0.9 0.1 3.73 4.84
Nick Nastrini Scott Scudder Dan Spillner Matt Magill 2.1 0.0 3.73 5.26
Carson Fulmer Ruddy Lugo Steve Grilli Jim Rittwage 0.7 -0.3 3.65 5.05
Pedro Báez Dan Osinski Hal Haid Jack Russell 0.4 -0.1 3.60 5.32
Jimmy Nelson Roger Nelson Bill Zuber Matt Hammons 0.6 -0.2 3.42 5.72
Emmet Sheehan John Travis Gerald Herron Jim Nelson 1.4 0.1 3.92 5.14
Adam Kolarek Juan Agosto Brian Duensing Lee Guetterman 0.3 -0.4 3.85 5.14
Bryan Hudson Kirby Snead Don Florence Jason Pearson 0.5 -0.3 3.81 5.17
Keegan Curtis Eric Wordekemper Jeff Martin Richie Barker 0.5 -0.1 3.86 5.23
Adolfo Ramirez Montana DuRapau Nicholas Waechter Don Stanford 0.8 -0.2 3.80 5.33
Jose Adames Allan Simpson Mike MacDougal Colin McLaughlin 0.5 -0.5 3.64 5.64
Yefry Ramírez Don Carrithers Colin Rea Stan Thomas 1.1 0.1 3.99 5.12
Hansel Robles Jesus Colome Dalier Hinojosa Dyar Miller 0.5 -0.6 4.16 6.25
Michael Grove Jonathan Hurst Doug Mlicki Brian Slocum 1.4 0.2 4.01 5.19
Jordan Leasure Steve Cishek Jason Garcia Kieran Lovegrove 0.3 -0.4 4.03 5.10
Shelby Miller Juan Eichelberger Roric Harrison Fernando Nieve 페르난도 0.6 -0.3 3.92 5.54
Kyle Hurt Bill Faul Frank Snook Larry Killingsworth 0.8 -0.1 4.17 5.40
Mark Washington Mike Roesler Patrick Mincey P.J. Francescon 0.2 -0.6 4.19 5.52
Lael Lockhart Dedgar Jimenez Chase Wright Scotty Pace 1.1 -0.1 4.28 5.37
Andre Jackson Craig Chamberlain Wilson Heredia Ryan Zimmerman 1.0 -0.2 4.34 5.54
Yadier Álvarez Goose Gregson Eddie Moore Mike Shields 0.1 -0.3 4.32 5.50
Aaron Ochsenbein Paul Thorp Elvys Quezada Mike Sullivan 0.2 -0.4 4.29 5.67
Keone Kela Luis Aloma Dave Sisler Joey McLaughlin 0.2 -0.4 3.92 5.99
Robbie Erlin Jo-Jo Reyes 레이예스 Bill Pulsipher Mark Thurmond 0.6 -0.3 4.27 5.62
James Jones Jamie Easterly Andy Hassler Jim Post 0.2 -0.6 4.02 6.28
Beau Burrows Al Raffo Kris Roth Tim Byron 0.8 -0.3 4.53 5.61
Jon Duplantier Matt DeSalvo Al Schroll Jack Hamilton 0.9 -0.5 4.29 5.90
Alec Gamboa Mitch Walk Anthony Nicometi Robert Snyder 0.5 -0.6 4.49 5.71
Heath Hembree Wes Stock Bob Long Johnny Klippstein 0.1 -0.7 4.10 6.12
Dellin Betances Hal Elliott Dwight Bernard Bob Babcock 0.1 -0.2 4.23 6.21
Logan Salow Zac Curtis Hunter Cervenka Mike Kinnunen 0.2 -0.7 4.38 6.31
Kendall Williams Pat Russell Jeff Sellers Trevor Mallory 0.8 -0.5 4.79 5.80
John Rooney Kramer Sneed Michael Mader Barry Wohler 0.7 -0.5 4.71 5.95
Tanner Dodson Jeff Schmidt Aaron Cook Fernando Barreras 0.0 -0.6 4.68 6.13
Jose Martinez Rick Pierini Brady Dragmire Johnny Rodriguez 0.3 -0.5 4.80 5.85
Jake Cantleberry Bryan Harper Pete Cappadona Dustin Sasser 0.0 -0.7 4.67 6.28
Cole Percival Al Hartman Mike Capel Steve DiBartolomeo 0.1 -0.8 4.97 6.17
Dakota Chalmers Dar Smith Dennis Malseed Kim Hillstrom 0.2 -0.6 5.04 6.64
Bobby Wahl Hal White Larry Gable Win Ballou -0.1 -0.4 4.92 7.07

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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raregokusmember
1 month ago

Awesome stuff as always Dan. FYI: Jordan Zimmermann, Juan Villanueva, and Dave Hillman links point to different guys than intended, I think.

raregokusmember
1 month ago
Reply to  raregokus

Just a further FYI: I caught these quickly because in the app, the linked player’s name is highlighted, but those 3 guys only had their names partially highlighted. Might be a useful way to give the comps lists a quick once-over before/right after publishing.