2022 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals.
Batters
Can we just say 87 wins and call it a day? It feels like that’s what I’ve been projecting for the Cardinals for the last 15 years or so. That’s an exaggeration, but not an extreme one: ZiPS hasn’t projected St. Louis outside the 85–90 win range in a full season since 2011. Going back to the first official ZiPS team standings in 2005 — I only did players in the first couple of years — the team’s projections have been below .500 once (2008) and above 90 wins once (2010).
The lineup rarely has superstars at the top, but the Cards have a knack for keeping their floor incredibly high. Does that line sound familiar? It might; it’s what I wrote last year. And it still applies today. For a while, it looked like it wouldn’t happen in 2021, with the team 44-47 right around the All-Star break. Now, if you still considered the Cardinals an 89-win team or thereabouts, the normal thinking would have been to say, “Oh, OK, so they’ll play at an 89-win pace the rest of the way and finish around .500.” But the Cards care not for you and your fancy-pants Gambler’s Fallacy. After a loss against the Kansas City Royals on August 8, St. Louis stood at 55-56. This was the last time they were below .500, as they went 35-16 the rest of the way, capped by a 17-game winning streak in mid-September. The Cards didn’t just sneak back into the Wild Card conversation; they talked over the Padres and Reds and flipped the table, spilling all the hors d’oeuvres onto the floor. In the end, they made the playoffs with seven games to spare.
If anything, the lineup looks more stable than it did last year at this point. The outfield looks pretty clearly set with Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson, with no Dexter Fowler hanging around trying to finish out a long-term deal. The uncertainty surrounding Matt Carpenter has cleared up. He never played well enough in 2021 to cause any positional controversy and was basically reduced to pinch-hitting duties by the end of the season. I’m still not sure how shortstop will shake out, but I’m happy with either Paul DeJong or Edmundo Sosa there next year. In DeJong’s case, his overall 2021 season was much better than the common perception. There isn’t even a will they/won’t they about bringing back Yadier Molina; he signed in August for a farewell campaign in 2022.
While the lineup is basically set, the Cardinals wouldn’t be hurt by adding a role player or two to the roster. The cupboard in that department looks relatively thin, especially for this organization.
Pitchers
This is probably the weaker part of the team right now, and I hope they’re not done investing. Adam Wainwright basically held the rotation together for large parts of the season, and that was with 106 2/3 quality innings out of Kwang Hyun Kim. The addition of Steven Matz and the return of Dakota Hudson from Tommy John surgery will buttress the rotation, but with Jack Flaherty seemingly unlucky at times health-wise, it still feels like they’re short another starter. I’m not necessarily talking about a long-term addition, but I’d rather Matthew Liberatore and Connor Thomas be Plan Bs, at least for 2022.
The computer is not terribly keen on the bullpen once you get past Giovanny Gallegos and Alex Reyes. In most systems, ZiPS finds an intriguing Triple-A reliever or two but here there’s a real shortage of bullpen arms who would cause the Rays to salivate should they be able to swipe them out of the minors. Let’s call that the Chaz Roe Zone. This is really the only area of the team where ZiPS is significantly less confident than it was last year. It should be noted, however, that Steamer is much more optimistic about the relief corps as a whole.
Call the Cards an 85-90 win team. That shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nolan Arenado | R | 31 | 3B | 623 | 562 | 78 | 148 | 29 | 2 | 29 | 96 | 51 | 95 | 2 | 1 |
Tommy Edman | B | 27 | 2B | 667 | 617 | 88 | 170 | 32 | 6 | 13 | 60 | 37 | 101 | 29 | 5 |
Tyler O’Neill | R | 27 | LF | 554 | 497 | 90 | 132 | 25 | 2 | 35 | 89 | 41 | 174 | 15 | 4 |
Paul Goldschmidt | R | 34 | 1B | 625 | 552 | 83 | 148 | 28 | 2 | 25 | 83 | 67 | 140 | 7 | 1 |
Harrison Bader | R | 28 | CF | 441 | 392 | 57 | 96 | 21 | 2 | 16 | 51 | 36 | 111 | 10 | 3 |
Dylan Carlson | B | 23 | RF | 632 | 555 | 81 | 148 | 33 | 6 | 20 | 75 | 58 | 144 | 4 | 2 |
Paul DeJong | R | 28 | SS | 505 | 447 | 63 | 100 | 21 | 1 | 20 | 64 | 43 | 130 | 5 | 2 |
Nolan Gorman | L | 22 | 3B | 548 | 512 | 62 | 128 | 25 | 2 | 21 | 64 | 29 | 120 | 5 | 0 |
Edmundo Sosa | R | 26 | SS | 432 | 394 | 48 | 99 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 18 | 88 | 4 | 4 |
Juan Yepez | R | 24 | 1B | 419 | 372 | 52 | 89 | 21 | 0 | 19 | 59 | 34 | 93 | 1 | 2 |
Brendan Donovan | L | 25 | 3B | 478 | 429 | 64 | 105 | 19 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 35 | 94 | 9 | 4 |
Yadier Molina | R | 39 | C | 421 | 393 | 37 | 96 | 16 | 0 | 9 | 54 | 19 | 70 | 3 | 0 |
Andrew Knizner | R | 27 | C | 309 | 280 | 35 | 67 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 31 | 21 | 55 | 3 | 0 |
Lars Nootbaar | L | 24 | RF | 351 | 316 | 42 | 77 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 37 | 32 | 72 | 4 | 4 |
Matt Koperniak | L | 24 | LF | 428 | 393 | 55 | 102 | 21 | 0 | 8 | 39 | 22 | 66 | 3 | 2 |
Matt Carpenter | L | 36 | 2B | 373 | 316 | 41 | 64 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 49 | 108 | 3 | 0 |
José Rondón | R | 28 | 3B | 214 | 197 | 25 | 45 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 27 | 14 | 52 | 3 | 1 |
Alec Burleson | L | 23 | RF | 528 | 493 | 66 | 120 | 18 | 0 | 17 | 63 | 29 | 107 | 2 | 1 |
Conner Capel | L | 25 | RF | 432 | 395 | 46 | 89 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 30 | 99 | 6 | 4 |
Ben DeLuzio | R | 27 | CF | 338 | 309 | 32 | 66 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 20 | 92 | 14 | 6 |
Max Moroff | B | 29 | 2B | 181 | 158 | 21 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 53 | 2 | 1 |
Justin Toerner | L | 25 | CF | 372 | 329 | 41 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 34 | 112 | 5 | 4 |
Ali Sánchez | R | 25 | C | 324 | 305 | 31 | 71 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 16 | 61 | 1 | 2 |
Kramer Robertson | R | 27 | 2B | 466 | 408 | 59 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 44 | 91 | 9 | 4 |
Nick Raposo | R | 24 | C | 150 | 135 | 20 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Malcom Nunez | R | 21 | 3B | 414 | 388 | 48 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 23 | 84 | 6 | 2 |
Matt Szczur | R | 32 | CF | 135 | 124 | 12 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 33 | 0 | 1 |
Aaron Antonini | L | 23 | C | 249 | 216 | 30 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 20 | 67 | 0 | 0 |
Iván Herrera | R | 22 | C | 437 | 387 | 54 | 79 | 12 | 0 | 13 | 45 | 36 | 101 | 1 | 2 |
Evan Mendoza | R | 26 | SS | 420 | 385 | 43 | 85 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 25 | 103 | 9 | 3 |
Rayder Ascanio | R | 26 | 3B | 298 | 275 | 26 | 58 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 19 | 64 | 2 | 2 |
Irving Lopez | L | 27 | 3B | 337 | 308 | 34 | 64 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 18 | 77 | 1 | 1 |
Delvin Perez | R | 23 | SS | 469 | 442 | 38 | 99 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 19 | 106 | 18 | 6 |
Luken Baker | R | 25 | 1B | 445 | 409 | 42 | 90 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 47 | 30 | 126 | 0 | 0 |
Chandler Redmond | L | 25 | 1B | 373 | 342 | 42 | 72 | 14 | 0 | 13 | 41 | 27 | 135 | 2 | 1 |
Clint Coulter | R | 28 | LF | 178 | 163 | 17 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 11 | 64 | 0 | 0 |
Scott Hurst | L | 26 | CF | 337 | 306 | 28 | 55 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 113 | 4 | 3 |
Chase Pinder | R | 26 | RF | 312 | 273 | 26 | 51 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 101 | 1 | 3 |
Nick Dunn | L | 25 | 2B | 394 | 363 | 43 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 69 | 2 | 2 |
Anderson Tejeda | B | 24 | SS | 340 | 318 | 28 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 29 | 20 | 142 | 10 | 3 |
Justin Williams | R | 22 | RF | 186 | 173 | 17 | 31 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 11 | 67 | 3 | 3 |
Jonah Davis | L | 24 | CF | 380 | 343 | 34 | 55 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 32 | 30 | 179 | 4 | 8 |
Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | RC/27 | Def | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nolan Arenado | .263 | .324 | .477 | 116 | .214 | .272 | 5.7 | 8 | 4.2 | Vern Stephens |
Tommy Edman | .276 | .322 | .410 | 99 | .135 | .312 | 5.3 | 8 | 3.9 | Tony Fernandez |
Tyler O’Neill | .266 | .334 | .535 | 133 | .270 | .337 | 6.7 | 0 | 3.9 | Rick Reichardt |
Paul Goldschmidt | .268 | .349 | .462 | 120 | .194 | .318 | 6.0 | 3 | 3.4 | Bill White |
Harrison Bader | .245 | .322 | .431 | 104 | .186 | .302 | 5.1 | 11 | 3.1 | Michael Cuddyer |
Dylan Carlson | .267 | .342 | .456 | 116 | .189 | .327 | 5.7 | 0 | 2.9 | Daryl Sconiers |
Paul DeJong | .224 | .303 | .409 | 93 | .186 | .269 | 4.3 | 7 | 2.7 | Steve Buechele |
Nolan Gorman | .250 | .293 | .430 | 95 | .180 | .288 | 4.6 | 7 | 2.5 | David Bell |
Edmundo Sosa | .251 | .307 | .378 | 87 | .127 | .303 | 4.1 | 5 | 1.7 | Ronny Cedeno |
Juan Yepez | .239 | .310 | .449 | 105 | .210 | .269 | 4.9 | 3 | 1.4 | Brad Bouras |
Brendan Donovan | .245 | .313 | .357 | 83 | .112 | .294 | 4.0 | 3 | 1.3 | Vance Law |
Yadier Molina | .244 | .286 | .354 | 74 | .109 | .277 | 3.7 | 3 | 1.1 | Chris Coste |
Andrew Knizner | .239 | .304 | .364 | 82 | .125 | .272 | 4.0 | 1 | 1.0 | Bill McGuire |
Lars Nootbaar | .244 | .314 | .386 | 91 | .142 | .283 | 4.2 | 5 | 1.0 | Ron Jones |
Matt Koperniak | .260 | .312 | .374 | 87 | .115 | .295 | 4.2 | 5 | 0.9 | Casey Kotchman |
Matt Carpenter | .203 | .319 | .345 | 82 | .142 | .276 | 3.8 | -4 | 0.5 | Marty McManus |
José Rondón | .228 | .280 | .416 | 88 | .188 | .265 | 4.1 | -1 | 0.4 | Howard Nichols |
Alec Burleson | .243 | .284 | .383 | 81 | .140 | .279 | 3.9 | 3 | 0.4 | Jim Bowie |
Conner Capel | .225 | .281 | .352 | 72 | .127 | .276 | 3.4 | 8 | 0.3 | Theron Todd |
Ben DeLuzio | .214 | .273 | .307 | 59 | .094 | .294 | 2.9 | 7 | 0.3 | Adrian Myers |
Max Moroff | .209 | .306 | .367 | 84 | .158 | .273 | 3.8 | -1 | 0.3 | Shanie Dugas |
Justin Toerner | .195 | .283 | .295 | 59 | .100 | .271 | 2.7 | 6 | 0.3 | Billy Deck |
Ali Sánchez | .233 | .272 | .305 | 58 | .072 | .282 | 2.8 | 4 | 0.2 | Chairon Isenia |
Kramer Robertson | .216 | .305 | .333 | 75 | .118 | .256 | 3.5 | -5 | 0.2 | Mike Moriarty |
Nick Raposo | .222 | .289 | .289 | 59 | .067 | .284 | 3.0 | 1 | 0.1 | Edwin Marquez |
Malcom Nunez | .232 | .280 | .345 | 70 | .113 | .275 | 3.5 | -1 | 0.1 | Joe Dunlap |
Matt Szczur | .202 | .246 | .355 | 62 | .153 | .241 | 2.8 | 2 | 0.1 | Scott Wade |
Aaron Antonini | .157 | .262 | .269 | 46 | .111 | .196 | 2.3 | 1 | -0.2 | Dave Liddell |
Iván Herrera | .204 | .277 | .336 | 67 | .132 | .242 | 3.1 | -5 | -0.2 | Scott Heard |
Evan Mendoza | .221 | .269 | .270 | 49 | .049 | .296 | 2.6 | 5 | -0.2 | Adam Haley |
Rayder Ascanio | .211 | .266 | .309 | 57 | .098 | .254 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.3 | Gera Alvarez |
Irving Lopez | .208 | .269 | .302 | 56 | .094 | .264 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.3 | Tom Nevers |
Delvin Perez | .224 | .263 | .283 | 50 | .059 | .288 | 2.7 | 3 | -0.3 | Esteban Beltre |
Luken Baker | .220 | .275 | .374 | 76 | .154 | .283 | 3.6 | -1 | -0.5 | Mark Fleisher |
Chandler Redmond | .211 | .273 | .365 | 73 | .155 | .304 | 3.4 | -1 | -0.5 | Mark Hamilton |
Clint Coulter | .190 | .249 | .356 | 63 | .166 | .261 | 2.9 | -1 | -0.5 | Troy Farnsworth |
Scott Hurst | .180 | .245 | .261 | 39 | .082 | .270 | 2.0 | 6 | -0.7 | Russ Quetti |
Chase Pinder | .187 | .275 | .271 | 51 | .084 | .271 | 2.3 | 3 | -0.8 | Roger Haggerty |
Nick Dunn | .215 | .263 | .292 | 52 | .077 | .255 | 2.6 | -1 | -0.9 | Chad Tredaway |
Anderson Tejeda | .170 | .221 | .296 | 40 | .126 | .269 | 2.2 | -1 | -1.1 | Robert McIntyre |
Justin Williams | .179 | .237 | .335 | 54 | .156 | .242 | 2.4 | -4 | -1.1 | Maximo Rodriguez |
Jonah Davis | .160 | .239 | .297 | 46 | .137 | .288 | 2.0 | -8 | -2.1 | Gary Hust |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jack Flaherty | R | 26 | 9 | 6 | 3.46 | 26 | 25 | 130.0 | 105 | 50 | 17 | 42 | 149 | 3.72 |
Adam Wainwright | R | 40 | 11 | 10 | 4.10 | 27 | 27 | 162.3 | 156 | 74 | 22 | 47 | 131 | 4.33 |
Steven Matz | L | 31 | 10 | 9 | 4.11 | 29 | 28 | 144.7 | 144 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 130 | 4.26 |
Dakota Hudson | R | 27 | 8 | 7 | 4.01 | 26 | 20 | 112.3 | 105 | 50 | 11 | 47 | 84 | 4.37 |
Connor Thomas | L | 24 | 7 | 6 | 4.17 | 28 | 19 | 127.3 | 131 | 59 | 16 | 36 | 99 | 4.25 |
Miles Mikolas | R | 33 | 7 | 6 | 4.12 | 21 | 21 | 111.3 | 114 | 51 | 16 | 22 | 82 | 4.33 |
Matthew Liberatore | L | 22 | 9 | 9 | 4.30 | 22 | 18 | 119.3 | 121 | 57 | 17 | 34 | 101 | 4.34 |
Giovanny Gallegos | R | 30 | 6 | 3 | 3.14 | 67 | 0 | 71.7 | 53 | 25 | 8 | 20 | 90 | 3.12 |
Kwang Hyun Kim | L | 33 | 7 | 7 | 4.39 | 27 | 22 | 108.7 | 107 | 53 | 15 | 38 | 84 | 4.59 |
J.A. Happ | L | 39 | 8 | 8 | 4.63 | 26 | 26 | 136.0 | 138 | 70 | 21 | 43 | 105 | 4.68 |
Ljay Newsome | R | 25 | 6 | 6 | 4.47 | 20 | 17 | 92.7 | 100 | 46 | 17 | 15 | 77 | 4.52 |
Angel Rondon | R | 24 | 6 | 6 | 4.48 | 23 | 16 | 92.3 | 96 | 46 | 14 | 29 | 72 | 4.70 |
Johan Oviedo | R | 24 | 6 | 7 | 4.73 | 26 | 24 | 118.0 | 117 | 62 | 16 | 59 | 105 | 4.92 |
Andre Pallante | R | 23 | 5 | 5 | 4.66 | 22 | 21 | 94.7 | 101 | 49 | 11 | 38 | 63 | 4.72 |
Jon Lester | L | 38 | 6 | 7 | 4.82 | 25 | 25 | 127.0 | 139 | 68 | 20 | 46 | 90 | 4.99 |
Carlos Martínez | R | 30 | 5 | 6 | 4.64 | 19 | 16 | 83.3 | 82 | 43 | 11 | 35 | 70 | 4.69 |
Austin Warner | L | 28 | 6 | 6 | 4.56 | 34 | 13 | 96.7 | 97 | 49 | 14 | 35 | 82 | 4.61 |
Alex Reyes | R | 27 | 9 | 7 | 3.74 | 66 | 0 | 67.3 | 49 | 28 | 8 | 40 | 95 | 3.77 |
Génesis Cabrera | L | 25 | 6 | 5 | 4.18 | 62 | 6 | 84.0 | 73 | 39 | 12 | 40 | 94 | 4.44 |
Daniel Ponce de Leon | R | 30 | 4 | 5 | 4.63 | 28 | 15 | 79.7 | 71 | 41 | 11 | 45 | 81 | 4.82 |
Domingo Robles | L | 24 | 6 | 8 | 4.91 | 24 | 22 | 102.7 | 117 | 56 | 16 | 27 | 63 | 4.91 |
Thomas Parsons | R | 26 | 5 | 5 | 4.76 | 24 | 12 | 85.0 | 91 | 45 | 15 | 24 | 67 | 4.92 |
Tyler Pike | L | 28 | 4 | 4 | 4.66 | 15 | 9 | 63.7 | 67 | 33 | 8 | 24 | 47 | 4.66 |
Jake Walsh | R | 26 | 4 | 4 | 4.68 | 20 | 10 | 65.3 | 65 | 34 | 10 | 26 | 59 | 4.70 |
Dalton Roach | R | 26 | 7 | 8 | 4.97 | 22 | 18 | 105.0 | 113 | 58 | 16 | 40 | 78 | 4.99 |
Wade LeBlanc | L | 37 | 4 | 4 | 4.87 | 22 | 14 | 85.0 | 92 | 46 | 14 | 25 | 62 | 4.85 |
Evan Kruczynski | L | 27 | 4 | 5 | 4.99 | 22 | 15 | 88.3 | 90 | 49 | 14 | 43 | 77 | 5.13 |
Kodi Whitley | R | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4.13 | 45 | 1 | 52.3 | 47 | 24 | 7 | 22 | 54 | 4.23 |
T.J. Zeuch | R | 26 | 5 | 6 | 5.07 | 24 | 18 | 110.0 | 119 | 62 | 18 | 38 | 72 | 5.17 |
Jordan Hicks | R | 25 | 1 | 1 | 4.13 | 30 | 0 | 28.3 | 23 | 13 | 3 | 17 | 32 | 4.20 |
Grant Black | R | 27 | 2 | 2 | 4.72 | 30 | 6 | 61.0 | 62 | 32 | 7 | 30 | 48 | 4.72 |
Andrew Miller | L | 37 | 1 | 1 | 4.19 | 45 | 1 | 38.7 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 18 | 42 | 4.55 |
Alex FaGalde | R | 28 | 4 | 6 | 5.09 | 20 | 13 | 76.0 | 80 | 43 | 12 | 32 | 55 | 5.25 |
Junior Fernández | R | 25 | 3 | 2 | 4.24 | 42 | 0 | 51.0 | 47 | 24 | 5 | 26 | 48 | 4.34 |
Ryan Helsley | R | 27 | 5 | 5 | 4.55 | 46 | 3 | 55.3 | 50 | 28 | 8 | 30 | 57 | 4.68 |
Jake Woodford | R | 25 | 6 | 7 | 5.14 | 33 | 17 | 112.0 | 115 | 64 | 20 | 48 | 87 | 5.45 |
Jacob Bosiokovic | R | 28 | 4 | 4 | 4.39 | 37 | 0 | 53.3 | 50 | 26 | 6 | 26 | 51 | 4.36 |
Freddy Pacheco | R | 24 | 1 | 1 | 4.44 | 43 | 0 | 50.7 | 44 | 25 | 6 | 34 | 57 | 4.66 |
Seth Elledge | R | 26 | 3 | 3 | 4.55 | 45 | 1 | 55.3 | 52 | 28 | 8 | 29 | 55 | 4.81 |
Edgar Escobar | R | 25 | 2 | 2 | 4.47 | 31 | 0 | 46.3 | 44 | 23 | 6 | 20 | 44 | 4.39 |
Garrett Williams | L | 27 | 3 | 4 | 4.99 | 34 | 7 | 70.3 | 68 | 39 | 9 | 44 | 62 | 5.13 |
Cory Thompson | R | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4.50 | 34 | 0 | 50.0 | 52 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 4.58 |
Kyle Ryan | L | 30 | 2 | 2 | 4.54 | 43 | 0 | 41.7 | 42 | 21 | 6 | 18 | 35 | 4.74 |
T.J. McFarland | L | 33 | 3 | 3 | 4.50 | 54 | 0 | 60.0 | 63 | 30 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 4.65 |
Justin Miller | R | 35 | 2 | 3 | 4.59 | 27 | 0 | 33.3 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 28 | 4.71 |
Kyle Leahy | R | 25 | 4 | 6 | 5.27 | 24 | 13 | 95.7 | 108 | 56 | 13 | 39 | 54 | 5.23 |
Tyler Webb | L | 31 | 1 | 1 | 4.67 | 46 | 0 | 44.3 | 41 | 23 | 6 | 23 | 42 | 4.67 |
Connor Jones | R | 27 | 4 | 5 | 4.85 | 44 | 3 | 65.0 | 66 | 35 | 6 | 39 | 48 | 4.89 |
Johan Quezada | R | 27 | 2 | 3 | 5.13 | 23 | 1 | 33.3 | 35 | 19 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 5.04 |
Brandon Waddell | L | 28 | 4 | 5 | 5.37 | 27 | 10 | 70.3 | 74 | 42 | 11 | 39 | 57 | 5.43 |
Jesus Cruz | R | 27 | 3 | 3 | 5.07 | 41 | 2 | 49.7 | 50 | 28 | 8 | 29 | 49 | 5.23 |
Edgar Gonzalez | R | 25 | 6 | 8 | 5.59 | 19 | 18 | 85.3 | 96 | 53 | 15 | 38 | 58 | 5.62 |
Griffin Roberts | R | 26 | 2 | 4 | 6.18 | 11 | 9 | 43.7 | 50 | 30 | 6 | 31 | 21 | 6.34 |
James Naile | R | 29 | 5 | 7 | 5.46 | 39 | 11 | 94.0 | 109 | 57 | 17 | 32 | 57 | 5.50 |
Player | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% | BABIP | ERA+ | ERA- | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jack Flaherty | 10.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 7.8% | 27.8% | .274 | 119 | 84 | 2.4 | Pete Harnisch |
Adam Wainwright | 7.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 6.9% | 19.1% | .280 | 101 | 99 | 2.0 | Orel Hershiser |
Steven Matz | 8.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 7.4% | 21.0% | .297 | 101 | 99 | 1.8 | Jon Matlack |
Dakota Hudson | 6.7 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 9.7% | 17.3% | .278 | 103 | 97 | 1.5 | Russ Bauers |
Connor Thomas | 7.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 6.6% | 18.2% | .296 | 99 | 101 | 1.4 | Steve Trout |
Miles Mikolas | 6.6 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4.7% | 17.6% | .287 | 100 | 100 | 1.4 | Bob Tewksbury |
Matthew Liberatore | 7.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 6.7% | 19.8% | .295 | 96 | 104 | 1.2 | Butch Henry |
Giovanny Gallegos | 11.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 6.9% | 31.3% | .271 | 132 | 76 | 1.2 | J.J. Putz |
Kwang Hyun Kim | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 8.1% | 18.0% | .282 | 94 | 106 | 1.0 | Kenny Rogers |
J.A. Happ | 6.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 7.4% | 18.0% | .285 | 89 | 112 | 0.9 | Jerry Reuss |
Ljay Newsome | 7.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.8% | 19.7% | .300 | 92 | 108 | 0.7 | Andy Sonnanstine |
Angel Rondon | 7.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 7.3% | 18.0% | .293 | 92 | 109 | 0.7 | Steve Crawford |
Johan Oviedo | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 11.1% | 19.7% | .295 | 87 | 114 | 0.7 | Matt Albers |
Andre Pallante | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 9.0% | 15.0% | .297 | 89 | 113 | 0.6 | Al Santorini |
Jon Lester | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 8.2% | 16.1% | .298 | 86 | 117 | 0.6 | Jerry Reuss |
Carlos Martínez | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 9.5% | 19.1% | .290 | 89 | 112 | 0.6 | Ryan Glynn |
Austin Warner | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 8.3% | 19.5% | .292 | 91 | 110 | 0.6 | Buddy Groom |
Alex Reyes | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 13.8% | 32.9% | .285 | 110 | 91 | 0.6 | Eric Plunk |
Génesis Cabrera | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 10.9% | 25.7% | .285 | 99 | 101 | 0.5 | Ken Brett |
Daniel Ponce de Leon | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 12.7% | 22.8% | .282 | 89 | 112 | 0.4 | Victor Zambrano |
Domingo Robles | 5.5 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 6.0% | 14.0% | .299 | 84 | 119 | 0.4 | Bobby Livingston |
Thomas Parsons | 7.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 6.5% | 18.2% | .295 | 87 | 115 | 0.4 | Josh Stevens |
Tyler Pike | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 8.5% | 16.7% | .298 | 89 | 113 | 0.4 | Lenny DiNardo |
Jake Walsh | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 9.1% | 20.7% | .294 | 88 | 113 | 0.3 | Ben Simon |
Dalton Roach | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 8.6% | 16.7% | .298 | 83 | 120 | 0.3 | Jason Johnson |
Wade LeBlanc | 6.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 6.8% | 16.8% | .295 | 85 | 118 | 0.3 | Chris Michalak |
Evan Kruczynski | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 10.8% | 19.4% | .295 | 83 | 121 | 0.2 | Bryan Price |
Kodi Whitley | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 9.8% | 24.1% | .288 | 100 | 100 | 0.2 | Derrick Turnbow |
T.J. Zeuch | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 7.9% | 14.9% | .289 | 81 | 123 | 0.2 | Jason McCommon |
Jordan Hicks | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.0 | 13.7% | 25.8% | .282 | 100 | 100 | 0.2 | Brad Voyles |
Grant Black | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 11.0% | 17.6% | .297 | 88 | 114 | 0.1 | William Vaughan |
Andrew Miller | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10.4% | 24.3% | .304 | 99 | 101 | 0.1 | Norm Charlton |
Alex FaGalde | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 9.4% | 16.2% | .289 | 81 | 123 | 0.1 | Sean Lowe |
Junior Fernández | 8.5 | 4.6 | 0.9 | 11.5% | 21.2% | .294 | 98 | 103 | 0.1 | Bill Snyder |
Ryan Helsley | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 12.3% | 23.5% | .286 | 91 | 110 | 0.1 | Todd Wellemeyer |
Jake Woodford | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 9.6% | 17.4% | .283 | 80 | 124 | 0.0 | Cliff Speck |
Jacob Bosiokovic | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 11.1% | 21.7% | .295 | 94 | 106 | 0.0 | Gerry Hannahs |
Freddy Pacheco | 10.1 | 6.0 | 1.1 | 14.8% | 24.8% | .292 | 93 | 107 | 0.0 | Rafael Pimentel |
Seth Elledge | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 11.8% | 22.4% | .291 | 91 | 110 | 0.0 | Roy Corcoran |
Edgar Escobar | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 9.9% | 21.8% | .292 | 92 | 108 | 0.0 | Todd Erdos |
Garrett Williams | 7.9 | 5.6 | 1.2 | 13.7% | 19.3% | .291 | 83 | 121 | 0.0 | Mike Williams |
Cory Thompson | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 8.6% | 16.8% | .297 | 92 | 109 | -0.1 | Ehren Wassermann |
Kyle Ryan | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 9.8% | 19.1% | .293 | 91 | 110 | -0.1 | Pete Burnside |
T.J. McFarland | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 7.4% | 14.7% | .286 | 92 | 109 | -0.1 | Chad Zerbe |
Justin Miller | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 8.2% | 19.2% | .293 | 90 | 111 | -0.1 | Mike James |
Kyle Leahy | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 9.0% | 12.5% | .297 | 78 | 128 | -0.1 | Yoel Hernandez |
Tyler Webb | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 11.8% | 21.5% | .285 | 88 | 113 | -0.1 | Matt Whisenant |
Connor Jones | 6.6 | 5.4 | 0.8 | 13.0% | 16.1% | .297 | 85 | 117 | -0.1 | Ryan Henderson |
Johan Quezada | 6.8 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 11.8% | 16.4% | .301 | 81 | 124 | -0.2 | Rick Greene |
Brandon Waddell | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 12.1% | 17.6% | .297 | 77 | 130 | -0.2 | Matt White |
Jesus Cruz | 8.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 12.7% | 21.5% | .302 | 81 | 123 | -0.3 | Mike MacDougal |
Edgar Gonzalez | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 9.8% | 14.9% | .298 | 74 | 135 | -0.3 | Patrick Coogan |
Griffin Roberts | 4.3 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 14.7% | 10.0% | .293 | 67 | 150 | -0.5 | Rob Purvis |
James Naile | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 7.6% | 13.6% | .298 | 76 | 132 | -0.5 | Carl Willis |
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.
ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I’m really curious to see if the Cardinals have something in Juan Yepez. I was surprised to see him grade out positively on the defensive side as most scouting reports I’ve read portray him as a poor defender. It’s also worth noting that Steamer has him at 117 wRC+ vs 105 for Zips. He’s only 23 and had a dominant statistical year between AA/AAA last year. Seems like there’s some really solid upside there and if he can play solid defense, that raises his floor significantly.
The fact that they put him on the playoff roster (for the wild card) without him every playing in MLB shows they have some confidence in him, too. If/when there’s a DH in the NL in 2022, I’m guessing first dibs will belong to Yepez as long as he has a decent Spring
As I recall he would’ve batted in the top of the 10th, if McFarland/Reyes could’ve gotten through the bottom of the 9th with the game still tied.
They’ll sign at least a platoon option for DH rather than relying entirely on internal options there. Maybe we’ll see a Yepez/Pujols platoon?
I’m not sure that makes sense. Pujols was a below-average hitter last season and has been since 2017. Even with his decent start in LA, he was barely average there, and he’s gonna be another year older. Yepez and Pujols are both righties, so I dunno how a platoon would work. Steamer has Yepez at a 117 wRC+ and Pujols at a 98 wRC+, so I’d just stick with Yepez and pick up a lefty. Brad Miller just put up a 123 wRC+ against righties, has made a career of hitting righties well, and has some positional versatility.
Agree all around, tdouglas. Another problem with Pujols is if he becomes totally unplayable you can’t really cut him (or even hide him on the bench) without creating a fair amount of controversy.
No, Pujols is absolutely a bench bat if he can’t platoon, just like he was with the Dodgers last year after their starters got healthy. Nobody would have any problem with that at all!
Pujols has not been a below average hitter against lefties, though. He works just fine as a platoon bat.
Ah, I thought Yepez was a lefty. Well, he’s still unproven to the point that I’ll still put the odds on Pujols having a better offensive 2022 if he’s kept in a strict platoon.
Either way, the Cardinals do at the very least need a lefty bench bat even if the DH doesn’t come to the NL next year.
I wouldn’t put too much stock in ZiPS defensive projections. For example, Gorman rates really high, but we know he’s not good. He has the same Def projection as Dejong and a better projection than Sosa, which is absurd. The 105 wRC+ projection for Yepez is really good, though. There aren’t too many rookies who get that kind of projection, especially when they aren’t lauded prospects.
A Brad Miller return could give STL a bomb-ass DH platoon for cheap. It at least gives them a solid pinch hitter, which has been a big weakness over the years.