2022 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

Can we just say 87 wins and call it a day? It feels like that’s what I’ve been projecting for the Cardinals for the last 15 years or so. That’s an exaggeration, but not an extreme one: ZiPS hasn’t projected St. Louis outside the 85–90 win range in a full season since 2011. Going back to the first official ZiPS team standings in 2005 — I only did players in the first couple of years — the team’s projections have been below .500 once (2008) and above 90 wins once (2010).

The lineup rarely has superstars at the top, but the Cards have a knack for keeping their floor incredibly high. Does that line sound familiar? It might; it’s what I wrote last year. And it still applies today. For a while, it looked like it wouldn’t happen in 2021, with the team 44-47 right around the All-Star break. Now, if you still considered the Cardinals an 89-win team or thereabouts, the normal thinking would have been to say, “Oh, OK, so they’ll play at an 89-win pace the rest of the way and finish around .500.” But the Cards care not for you and your fancy-pants Gambler’s Fallacy. After a loss against the Kansas City Royals on August 8, St. Louis stood at 55-56. This was the last time they were below .500, as they went 35-16 the rest of the way, capped by a 17-game winning streak in mid-September. The Cards didn’t just sneak back into the Wild Card conversation; they talked over the Padres and Reds and flipped the table, spilling all the hors d’oeuvres onto the floor. In the end, they made the playoffs with seven games to spare.

If anything, the lineup looks more stable than it did last year at this point. The outfield looks pretty clearly set with Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson, with no Dexter Fowler hanging around trying to finish out a long-term deal. The uncertainty surrounding Matt Carpenter has cleared up. He never played well enough in 2021 to cause any positional controversy and was basically reduced to pinch-hitting duties by the end of the season. I’m still not sure how shortstop will shake out, but I’m happy with either Paul DeJong or Edmundo Sosa there next year. In DeJong’s case, his overall 2021 season was much better than the common perception. There isn’t even a will they/won’t they about bringing back Yadier Molina; he signed in August for a farewell campaign in 2022.

While the lineup is basically set, the Cardinals wouldn’t be hurt by adding a role player or two to the roster. The cupboard in that department looks relatively thin, especially for this organization.

Pitchers

This is probably the weaker part of the team right now, and I hope they’re not done investing. Adam Wainwright basically held the rotation together for large parts of the season, and that was with 106 2/3 quality innings out of Kwang Hyun Kim. The addition of Steven Matz and the return of Dakota Hudson from Tommy John surgery will buttress the rotation, but with Jack Flaherty seemingly unlucky at times health-wise, it still feels like they’re short another starter. I’m not necessarily talking about a long-term addition, but I’d rather Matthew Liberatore and Connor Thomas be Plan Bs, at least for 2022.

The computer is not terribly keen on the bullpen once you get past Giovanny Gallegos and Alex Reyes. In most systems, ZiPS finds an intriguing Triple-A reliever or two but here there’s a real shortage of bullpen arms who would cause the Rays to salivate should they be able to swipe them out of the minors. Let’s call that the Chaz Roe Zone. This is really the only area of the team where ZiPS is significantly less confident than it was last year. It should be noted, however, that Steamer is much more optimistic about the relief corps as a whole.

Call the Cards an 85-90 win team. That shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.