2023 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

Under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, the Mariners have evolved into something a bit like the St. Louis Cardinals. The roster is very solidly built, with an eye toward sustainability in the short- and long-term, and with some of the team’s very best talent locked up for the foreseeable future. But like the Cardinals, the roster is missing something to really put them over the top in a top division, that element that makes them one of the first-tier World Series contenders. The AL West is getting a bit tougher, too; the Astros aren’t likely to fall far, the Rangers are acting aggressively to improve the team, and the Angels, despite their long-term issues, have at least patched things up for 2023.

What are the Mariners missing? A true thumper in the middle of the lineup, that above-average corner outfield type who racks up lofty home run and RBI totals and becomes overrated by many fans. They have notable strength up the middle, with solid offense from players at tougher defensive positions, none of whom really seem to be the volatile type. But they’re thin in the outfield corners and at designated hitter, and the options just aren’t very satisfying. Teoscar Hernández is a fine short-term fill-in, but it feels like a top team would have him as the weakest player in the lineup. It’s hard to envision Jarred Kelenic putting up corner outfield-type numbers, and AJ Pollock is a 35-year-old who was awful last season. Oh for a time machine to bring back the Nelson Cruz of five years ago! Mitch Haniger isn’t a star, but it really feels like a mistake to have not at least run up his price and forced the Giants to commit more than three years and $43.5 million for his services.

The good news is that Dipoto tends to be one of the most active executives in baseball, and while the lineup has issues, there aren’t really that many headaches to worry about. Kolten Wong and J.P. Crawford won’t make many All-Star games, but like much of the roster, they feel like one of those champagne-colored Toyota Camrys popular back in 1998, 99% of which seem to still be driving today. In other words, very Cardinals-ish.

The big exception, of course, is Julio Rodríguez, the one player the Mariners cannot afford to lose. But it feels like the M’s really need a second slugger, a player to be the McCovey to his Mays. That player doesn’t necessarily have to be as good as Willie McCovey, mind you, but I think adding another 120 OPS+, traditional power hitter-type would be as valuable to the M’s as anyone in baseball.

Pitchers

The pitching is a particular highlight of this team. With only a handful of teams remaining to run in ZiPS, Luis Castillo is fourth among pitchers in 2023 WAR and is in the top 20 of all pitchers in projected final career WAR, which includes veterans like Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Max Scherzer. Only a single player younger than Castillo, Alek Manoah, projects to finish with more career WAR! Getting Castillo extended to a five-year, $108 million contract a year from free agency was a coup for Dipoto and puts a nice feather in his executive cap.

The Mariners don’t really have a number-two pitcher in the sense that ZiPS thinks they have three of ’em: Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby. That leaves Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen, and a surprisingly large number of OKish spares to comfortably cover the fifth spot in the rotation and fill in for whatever injuries pop up. ZiPS is more optimistic about Gonzales than most simply because of the way ZiPS is constructed — the longer a pitcher outperforms their peripherals and defense, the more ZiPS believes it. Gonzales is projected for a 4.39 ERA with a 4.91 FIP, and he’d have a much more bloated ERA projection if not for his history.

One pitcher ZiPS is really in on is Bryce Miller, who ZiPS prefers for the rotation over Flexen or Gonzales. A 2021 draftee, Miller had a really excellent first full season as a professional, especially his late season debut in the Texas League. His numbers are more impressive when you remember what a brutal environment the high minors have become from pitchers; the Texas League had an ERA over 5.00 in 2022. Just to put that into context, that’s 30-40% more run scoring than the league through the 2010s! A pitcher performing well in the high minors means a lot more than it did five years ago (conversely, a hitter with lofty numbers at Double- or Triple-A ball means a lot less). Miller’s a player to remember, though if he doesn’t work out, I totally wouldn’t mind if you forgot where you heard it from!

ZiPS projects the M’s bullpen bordering on being a top-five unit, about where Steamer has them in our current depth chart rankings. Unlike some teams with a healthy relief projection, it’s not just a couple of huge names with the lion’s share of the WAR; ZiPS basically likes all the principals with the exception of Justin Topa. It’s a deep unit, and like the rest of the team, it’s not reliant on one or two stars. That leaves the M’s less prone to injury-related disasters than most teams.

All told, the Mariners look like an 85-90 win team, with a tighter range of outcomes than most clubs. That’s fun and makes the M’s a serious contender, but I really want them to make the Astros a bit less comfortable. Of course, Dipoto being Dipoto, watch him somehow acquire Shohei Ohtani just after we publish this article!

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Julio Rodríguez R 22 CF 588 533 89 144 24 3 28 90 46 146 27 7
Ty France R 28 1B 618 550 75 150 29 1 19 81 39 102 0 1
J.P. Crawford L 28 SS 624 548 71 137 29 2 8 55 64 96 5 4
Cal Raleigh B 26 C 446 405 48 90 24 1 22 68 34 120 2 1
Kolten Wong L 32 2B 485 430 61 107 22 2 12 50 37 86 14 5
Eugenio Suárez R 31 3B 597 521 66 109 20 1 28 78 63 185 1 1
Teoscar Hernández R 30 RF 578 533 78 135 22 1 29 86 38 155 10 3
Tom Murphy R 32 C 269 237 29 54 9 0 10 31 29 83 1 1
Dylan Moore R 30 RF 335 285 44 62 14 2 10 36 37 98 20 8
Luis Torrens R 27 C 367 336 35 77 15 1 12 42 27 97 0 1
Drew Ellis R 27 3B 462 403 52 79 22 1 14 53 48 140 2 1
Mason McCoy R 28 SS 510 469 56 99 18 4 10 51 34 149 11 3
Jarred Kelenic L 23 RF 558 506 71 113 27 3 22 76 44 142 11 5
Brian O’Keefe R 29 C 377 346 36 74 12 1 12 45 27 110 1 1
Marcus Wilson R 26 RF 419 371 47 72 16 2 13 47 42 168 9 2
Cooper Hummel B 28 LF 377 326 48 68 12 3 10 41 43 110 4 3
Sam Haggerty B 29 RF 351 313 46 70 14 2 6 37 28 96 19 2
Cade Marlowe L 26 CF 521 474 59 103 17 4 15 64 38 172 16 6
Kaden Polcovich B 24 2B 487 436 55 86 16 3 9 50 39 137 9 2
Jacob Nottingham R 28 C 320 285 33 57 12 0 11 43 22 111 5 1
Travis Jankowski L 32 CF 237 207 32 44 6 1 1 14 28 53 10 2
Taylor Trammell L 25 RF 427 379 49 79 15 1 12 47 40 121 10 4
AJ Pollock R 35 LF 432 399 49 98 20 1 14 48 26 91 4 1
Josh Morgan R 27 C 196 173 17 36 6 0 5 22 17 49 0 1
Steven Souza Jr. R 34 RF 172 151 20 30 8 1 6 20 18 60 2 1
Jose Caballero R 26 SS 226 195 30 40 8 0 3 21 24 53 11 4
Evan White R 27 1B 232 213 27 46 8 0 10 31 16 66 1 1
Jonathan Villar B 32 2B 470 431 55 98 16 2 12 47 34 127 18 5
Scott Heineman R 30 LF 165 151 20 30 6 1 4 17 11 54 4 3
Jack Larsen L 28 RF 496 447 58 97 20 3 10 52 44 141 4 2
Alex Blandino R 30 2B 283 237 27 41 10 1 2 22 35 96 3 1
Spencer Packard L 25 LF 289 258 28 58 9 1 6 33 23 56 2 1
Zach DeLoach L 24 RF 490 442 63 96 18 3 11 53 42 142 3 2
Mike Ford L 30 1B 368 325 36 68 14 0 11 39 38 87 0 1
Zach Green R 29 1B 367 333 35 66 18 0 14 48 25 145 1 1
Joseph Odom R 31 C 260 240 20 43 10 0 6 26 18 112 1 1
Logan Warmoth R 27 RF 397 353 41 69 14 2 6 35 34 141 10 4
Jake Scheiner R 27 1B 513 462 62 101 23 2 16 64 39 143 2 2
Patrick Frick R 26 2B 383 342 45 70 11 1 2 32 30 100 2 1
Matt Scheffler R 25 C 281 249 29 49 8 2 3 24 25 76 3 1
Trey Amburgey R 28 LF 340 316 37 67 15 1 9 37 20 109 2 1
Cesar Izturis Jr. B 23 2B 289 270 27 57 10 0 1 22 13 71 5 3
Colin Moran L 30 1B 383 348 33 78 14 0 11 49 29 105 0 1
Robert Perez Jr. R 23 1B 528 473 59 99 16 1 17 70 35 174 2 1
Tanner Kirwer R 27 LF 359 321 40 62 8 1 5 32 28 113 15 2
Ty Duvall L 25 C 224 195 21 33 7 0 2 18 24 80 0 1
James Parker R 23 SS 388 359 37 66 14 1 7 35 24 148 3 1
Cole Barr R 25 3B 243 204 22 32 5 1 2 22 25 97 6 4
Connor Hoover L 26 1B 358 323 35 58 14 2 7 32 31 121 5 2
Justin Upton R 35 RF 297 263 32 49 9 0 10 30 28 99 1 1
Victor Labrada L 23 CF 504 459 54 88 14 3 6 46 35 169 14 8
Trent Tingelstad L 25 LF 355 317 27 59 11 1 3 25 35 107 0 1
Jake Anchia R 26 C 304 285 27 53 9 0 6 27 13 101 0 1
Alberto Rodriguez L 22 RF 531 490 48 99 20 2 7 49 34 165 4 4
Justin Lavey R 25 2B 360 335 32 60 9 2 4 28 21 131 9 1
Charlie Welch R 23 C 207 180 18 32 6 1 5 20 24 82 0 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Julio Rodríguez 588 .270 .337 .484 131 .214 .323 4 5.0 .350
Ty France 618 .273 .345 .433 121 .160 .305 6 3.2 .338
J.P. Crawford 624 .250 .334 .354 97 .104 .291 1 2.8 .307
Cal Raleigh 446 .222 .285 .449 105 .227 .259 1 2.4 .312
Kolten Wong 485 .249 .324 .393 104 .144 .286 2 2.4 .313
Eugenio Suárez 597 .209 .302 .413 102 .203 .263 -1 2.1 .310
Teoscar Hernández 578 .253 .308 .462 116 .208 .304 -4 2.0 .329
Tom Murphy 269 .228 .312 .392 100 .165 .306 2 1.6 .309
Dylan Moore 335 .218 .329 .386 104 .168 .294 4 1.4 .316
Luis Torrens 367 .229 .286 .387 90 .158 .286 -1 1.1 .291
Drew Ellis 462 .196 .290 .360 85 .164 .261 2 1.1 .286
Mason McCoy 510 .211 .266 .330 69 .119 .287 6 1.0 .262
Jarred Kelenic 558 .223 .290 .419 99 .196 .266 -1 0.9 .304
Brian O’Keefe 377 .214 .276 .358 80 .145 .277 0 0.8 .278
Marcus Wilson 419 .194 .282 .353 80 .159 .311 6 0.6 .280
Cooper Hummel 377 .209 .310 .356 90 .147 .282 1 0.5 .295
Sam Haggerty 351 .224 .296 .339 81 .115 .303 3 0.4 .279
Cade Marlowe 521 .217 .282 .365 83 .148 .307 -4 0.4 .282
Kaden Polcovich 487 .197 .277 .310 68 .112 .266 3 0.4 .262
Jacob Nottingham 320 .200 .278 .358 80 .158 .282 -5 0.3 .280
Travis Jankowski 237 .213 .309 .266 67 .053 .281 2 0.3 .263
Taylor Trammell 427 .208 .289 .348 81 .140 .272 3 0.3 .282
AJ Pollock 432 .246 .296 .406 98 .160 .286 -4 0.3 .303
Josh Morgan 196 .208 .291 .329 77 .121 .261 -1 0.3 .277
Steven Souza Jr. 172 .199 .291 .384 91 .185 .282 1 0.3 .295
Jose Caballero 226 .205 .305 .292 73 .087 .266 -2 0.2 .273
Evan White 232 .216 .276 .394 89 .178 .263 2 0.2 .290
Jonathan Villar 470 .227 .286 .357 83 .130 .295 -8 0.1 .281
Scott Heineman 165 .199 .267 .331 70 .132 .280 3 0.0 .264
Jack Larsen 496 .217 .290 .342 80 .125 .294 2 0.0 .279
Alex Blandino 283 .173 .300 .249 60 .076 .281 1 0.0 .259
Spencer Packard 289 .225 .304 .337 84 .112 .265 -1 -0.1 .285
Zach DeLoach 490 .217 .292 .346 82 .129 .294 0 -0.1 .282
Mike Ford 368 .209 .299 .354 86 .145 .251 -1 -0.2 .288
Zach Green 367 .198 .262 .378 80 .180 .299 2 -0.2 .277
Joseph Odom 260 .179 .242 .296 53 .117 .303 1 -0.2 .239
Logan Warmoth 397 .195 .278 .297 65 .102 .306 5 -0.2 .259
Jake Scheiner 513 .219 .287 .381 89 .162 .281 -2 -0.3 .290
Patrick Frick 383 .205 .282 .260 57 .056 .283 2 -0.3 .248
Matt Scheffler 281 .197 .281 .281 62 .084 .271 -5 -0.4 .255
Trey Amburgey 340 .212 .262 .351 73 .139 .293 1 -0.5 .265
Cesar Izturis Jr. 289 .211 .253 .259 47 .048 .283 4 -0.5 .230
Colin Moran 383 .224 .285 .359 83 .135 .289 -2 -0.5 .280
Robert Perez Jr. 528 .209 .282 .355 81 .146 .291 -5 -0.9 .280
Tanner Kirwer 359 .193 .272 .271 56 .078 .281 0 -0.9 .247
Ty Duvall 224 .169 .272 .236 48 .067 .274 -6 -0.9 .238
James Parker 388 .184 .240 .287 50 .103 .289 -2 -1.0 .234
Cole Barr 243 .157 .284 .221 48 .064 .286 -4 -1.0 .242
Connor Hoover 358 .180 .254 .300 58 .121 .262 3 -1.0 .247
Justin Upton 297 .186 .269 .335 72 .148 .253 -8 -1.3 .267
Victor Labrada 504 .192 .258 .275 53 .083 .289 -2 -1.4 .240
Trent Tingelstad 355 .186 .268 .256 51 .069 .271 0 -1.4 .239
Jake Anchia 304 .186 .227 .281 44 .095 .264 -11 -1.9 .223
Alberto Rodriguez 531 .202 .260 .294 58 .092 .289 -1 -2.0 .247
Justin Lavey 360 .179 .231 .254 39 .075 .280 -7 -2.0 .217
Charlie Welch 207 .178 .275 .306 66 .128 .290 -23 -2.3 .261

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Julio Rodríguez Pete Reiser Ronald Acuña Jr. Cesar Cedeno
Ty France Sean Casey Mike Sweeney Jo-Jo Moore
J.P. Crawford Wayne Causey Marv Staehle Luke Appling
Cal Raleigh Frankie Hayes Cliff Johnson Carlton Fisk
Kolten Wong Jackie Robinson Fernando Vina Keith Lockhart
Eugenio Suárez Dan Uggla Rico Petrocelli Roy Smalley
Teoscar Hernández Larry Hisle Bob Meusel George Binks
Tom Murphy Marv Foley Matthew LeCroy Chad Kreuter
Dylan Moore Jim Landis Kevin Thompson Bob Brower
Luis Torrens Bob Schmidt Sean Mulligan Steve Decker
Drew Ellis George Foussianes Jim Hickman Gabe Alvarez
Mason McCoy Charlie Neal Tyler Greene Ossie Chavarria
Jarred Kelenic Leon Durham Jack Clark Bob Coluccio
Brian O’Keefe John-Ford Griffin Harry Saferight Tim Laker
Marcus Wilson Jordan Qsar Robert Alexander Drew Robinson
Cooper Hummel Mike Hart Willie Argo Dexter Fowler
Sam Haggerty Ed Stroud Michael Lang Adam Heisler
Cade Marlowe Curtis Pride Gary Ward Junior Felix 펠릭스
Kaden Polcovich Jerry DeSimone Dan Lyons Chance Sanford
Jacob Nottingham Jayhawk Owens Dave Roberts George Mitterwald
Travis Jankowski Otis Nixon Nick Capra Reggie Willits
Taylor Trammell Rex De La Nuez Sheldon Mallory Mike Hart
AJ Pollock Al Simmons Clyde Milan John Rodriguez
Josh Morgan Juan Espino Jim Saul Jeff Horn
Steven Souza Jr. Pete Reiser Rob Ducey Warren Newson 뉴선
Jose Caballero Doc Gautreau Sammy Esposito Larry Lintz
Evan White Steve Whitaker John Boccabella Scott Pinoni
Jonathan Villar Juan Samuel Kazuo Matsui Bobby Adams
Scott Heineman Ken Williams Kevin Flora Herm Winningham
Jack Larsen Ted Wood 우드 Bryan Petersen Doug Deeds
Alex Blandino Nolan Fontana Daniel Muno Jim Waggoner
Spencer Packard Jon-Mark Sprowl Tom Poquette Jermaine Curtis
Zach DeLoach David Dellucci Jim McAnany Anthony Raglani
Mike Ford Rube Walker Larry Sutton 서튼 Rico Washington
Zach Green Rogelio Alvarez Ian Gac J.R. Phillips 필립스
Joseph Odom John Orton Alan Probst Marc Sullivan
Logan Warmoth Rich Barnwell Doug Carpenter Dan Carroll
Jake Scheiner Ossie Blanco Russ Canzler Scott Van Slyke 반슬라이크
Patrick Frick T.J. Maier Boomer Berry Scott Sellner
Matt Scheffler Mike Sadek Tim McConnell Bruce Kimm
Trey Amburgey John Hairston Brian Joynt Ron Shepherd
Cesar Izturis Jr. Rusty Hamric Sam Ferretti Calvin Kelly
Colin Moran John Harris Bill Davis Dick Nen
Robert Perez Jr. Dave McDonald Dan Logan Kevin Witt
Tanner Kirwer Vic LaRose Cameron Monger Scarborough Green
Ty Duvall Jerry Branch Bob Turzilli Duane Gustavson
James Parker Rayner Bautista Billy Carthel Guillermo Mota
Cole Barr Sharnol Adriana Greg Carmona Pedro Ruiz
Connor Hoover Gino Gentile Gordon Goldsberry Samuel Greenwood
Justin Upton Mark Whiten Franklin Stubbs Chuck Weatherspoon
Victor Labrada Rey Fuentes Mike Basse Nathan Haynes
Trent Tingelstad Brian Heere Scott Miller Jason Dill
Jake Anchia Gary Tremblay Roger Luce Ray Roman
Alberto Rodriguez Troy O’Leary 오리어리 Shane Peterson Nelson Simmons
Justin Lavey Ridge Hoopii-Haslam Bobby Dolan David Nicholson
Charlie Welch Bob Turzilli Omar Falcon Brett Hendley

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Julio Rodríguez .296 .367 .538 154 6.8 .236 .307 .418 104 3.1
Ty France .294 .368 .479 139 4.6 .247 .319 .393 104 1.9
J.P. Crawford .275 .357 .392 114 4.1 .226 .307 .319 80 1.5
Cal Raleigh .246 .308 .512 125 3.6 .198 .260 .394 84 1.2
Kolten Wong .269 .347 .435 121 3.3 .226 .303 .353 89 1.3
Eugenio Suárez .235 .324 .466 121 3.6 .187 .277 .363 83 0.8
Teoscar Hernández .278 .336 .522 137 3.6 .229 .284 .410 94 0.3
Tom Murphy .256 .340 .445 121 2.2 .196 .283 .341 79 0.8
Dylan Moore .242 .353 .441 124 2.2 .197 .306 .341 87 0.5
Luis Torrens .255 .311 .436 110 2.1 .202 .263 .332 71 0.3
Drew Ellis .218 .311 .412 102 2.0 .176 .265 .315 67 -0.1
Mason McCoy .236 .290 .378 89 2.2 .187 .241 .292 53 -0.1
Jarred Kelenic .251 .318 .479 122 2.5 .202 .266 .371 79 -0.5
Brian O’Keefe .246 .307 .406 99 1.8 .186 .251 .304 60 -0.1
Marcus Wilson .219 .305 .408 100 1.6 .167 .253 .300 58 -0.6
Cooper Hummel .233 .336 .405 110 1.4 .186 .287 .316 73 -0.3
Sam Haggerty .252 .321 .382 98 1.2 .199 .267 .299 63 -0.4
Cade Marlowe .240 .308 .415 99 1.5 .193 .257 .316 62 -0.9
Kaden Polcovich .218 .303 .352 86 1.5 .170 .255 .267 49 -0.7
Jacob Nottingham .229 .307 .417 103 1.2 .174 .248 .304 61 -0.5
Travis Jankowski .241 .335 .296 83 0.8 .191 .284 .237 53 -0.1
Taylor Trammell .232 .314 .395 101 1.3 .182 .262 .302 62 -0.7
AJ Pollock .268 .316 .447 113 1.2 .218 .268 .358 77 -0.8
Josh Morgan .238 .318 .379 97 0.8 .182 .265 .281 57 -0.2
Steven Souza Jr. .222 .316 .435 109 0.7 .175 .266 .325 69 -0.2
Jose Caballero .230 .332 .341 91 0.7 .181 .284 .261 58 -0.2
Evan White .242 .302 .454 110 0.8 .193 .251 .349 72 -0.3
Jonathan Villar .254 .310 .401 100 1.0 .204 .262 .308 65 -1.0
Scott Heineman .227 .298 .381 92 0.5 .175 .239 .289 51 -0.4
Jack Larsen .239 .314 .382 98 1.1 .191 .267 .300 64 -1.0
Alex Blandino .198 .326 .286 76 0.5 .147 .276 .215 44 -0.6
Spencer Packard .251 .329 .379 102 0.6 .202 .283 .302 68 -0.6
Zach DeLoach .241 .317 .392 100 1.1 .191 .267 .299 63 -1.3
Mike Ford .234 .330 .413 108 0.9 .183 .274 .304 65 -1.1
Zach Green .223 .288 .439 102 0.8 .170 .236 .320 58 -1.1
Joseph Odom .204 .272 .345 72 0.4 .153 .216 .250 33 -0.9
Logan Warmoth .222 .303 .340 83 0.7 .169 .251 .255 46 -1.2
Jake Scheiner .244 .311 .434 110 1.1 .194 .261 .336 72 -1.3
Patrick Frick .231 .305 .293 72 0.4 .179 .258 .227 41 -1.0
Matt Scheffler .224 .310 .327 82 0.3 .168 .258 .246 47 -0.9
Trey Amburgey .239 .289 .401 94 0.4 .188 .238 .311 56 -1.2
Cesar Izturis Jr. .234 .279 .293 62 0.1 .187 .229 .230 32 -1.1
Colin Moran .250 .311 .404 102 0.4 .198 .257 .311 64 -1.4
Robert Perez Jr. .231 .306 .401 98 0.3 .186 .262 .313 63 -2.0
Tanner Kirwer .218 .299 .309 73 -0.1 .166 .244 .233 39 -1.7
Ty Duvall .198 .305 .275 66 -0.4 .143 .242 .196 29 -1.4
James Parker .209 .263 .328 68 -0.1 .163 .217 .249 35 -1.7
Cole Barr .184 .310 .259 65 -0.4 .130 .259 .183 31 -1.5
Connor Hoover .210 .285 .350 80 0.0 .154 .229 .258 40 -1.8
Justin Upton .216 .296 .398 97 -0.4 .160 .241 .284 51 -2.0
Victor Labrada .214 .282 .311 69 -0.3 .169 .238 .241 39 -2.1
Trent Tingelstad .212 .296 .288 67 -0.7 .161 .241 .219 36 -2.2
Jake Anchia .213 .255 .321 61 -1.2 .158 .199 .240 27 -2.6
Alberto Rodriguez .224 .281 .326 73 -1.0 .181 .236 .258 42 -3.1
Justin Lavey .203 .251 .293 55 -1.3 .156 .205 .219 23 -2.7
Charlie Welch .210 .310 .365 91 -1.6 .146 .247 .250 44 -2.9

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Andrés Muñoz R 24 5 3 2.80 64 0 64.3 41 20 6 23 97
Luis Castillo R 30 11 6 2.99 29 29 171.7 134 57 14 56 177
Casey Sadler R 32 2 1 3.40 33 2 47.7 41 18 5 14 43
Diego Castillo R 29 6 4 3.49 60 1 56.7 46 22 7 21 62
George Kirby R 25 8 6 3.56 28 28 136.7 128 54 16 27 132
Matt Brash R 25 5 4 3.63 44 10 79.3 63 32 8 42 99
Logan Gilbert R 26 10 8 3.66 30 30 174.7 161 71 22 49 164
Matt Festa R 30 2 1 3.71 48 0 51.0 42 21 7 17 59
Paul Sewald R 33 5 4 3.77 57 0 57.3 46 24 10 18 72
Robbie Ray L 31 11 9 3.82 29 29 167.3 144 71 29 58 195
Bryce Miller R 24 5 5 3.84 25 24 119.7 106 51 13 40 113
Trevor Gott R 30 3 4 3.94 45 0 45.7 39 20 6 14 45
Isaiah Campbell R 25 3 2 3.95 29 3 41.0 36 18 5 14 39
Gabe Speier L 28 2 3 3.98 48 1 54.3 50 24 7 16 51
Penn Murfee R 29 4 4 4.03 48 9 80.3 71 36 11 27 86
Justin Topa R 32 2 1 4.08 26 0 28.7 29 13 3 11 21
Taylor Dollard R 24 8 8 4.12 24 23 122.3 120 56 16 31 101
Darren McCaughan R 27 7 7 4.13 25 24 135.0 134 62 18 27 104
Blake Weiman L 27 2 2 4.17 33 1 41.0 40 19 6 10 34
Chris Clarke R 25 6 7 4.19 22 18 103.0 106 48 13 23 73
Taylor Williams R 31 2 1 4.22 42 2 53.3 50 25 6 20 47
Chris Flexen R 28 8 8 4.23 30 22 132.0 135 62 18 43 97
Jose Rodriguez R 27 4 4 4.23 26 12 78.7 76 37 10 29 64
Dayeison Arias R 26 1 1 4.25 33 1 36.0 30 17 5 18 41
Juan Mercedes R 23 8 8 4.26 25 18 105.7 101 50 14 32 89
Drew Steckenrider R 32 3 3 4.31 44 0 48.0 46 23 7 17 38
Ryder Ryan R 28 4 4 4.35 41 0 51.7 47 25 6 24 48
Marco Gonzales L 31 10 11 4.39 27 27 155.7 160 76 25 43 98
Brennan Bernardino L 31 1 2 4.45 24 0 30.3 29 15 4 12 27
Austin Warner L 29 4 5 4.47 30 13 86.7 87 43 12 32 71
Prelander Berroa R 23 4 4 4.48 27 27 96.3 82 48 13 58 106
J.B. Bukauskas R 26 2 2 4.50 24 7 50.0 47 25 7 20 49
Juan Then R 23 3 4 4.53 19 13 55.7 55 28 9 19 48
Devin Sweet R 26 4 5 4.58 33 5 59.0 57 30 10 22 56
Emerson Hancock R 24 5 5 4.58 20 20 90.3 88 46 13 35 70
Easton McGee R 25 5 7 4.63 24 19 101.0 108 52 16 20 66
Nick Margevicius L 27 3 4 4.64 26 11 66.0 69 34 10 20 52
Kyle Hill R 26 1 1 4.65 27 0 31.0 28 16 3 21 29
Riley O’Brien R 28 4 6 4.66 25 12 75.3 70 39 11 41 71
Chris Mazza R 33 3 4 4.69 23 7 55.7 56 29 8 21 46
Konner Wade R 31 4 5 4.71 21 17 93.7 107 49 14 22 55
Justus Sheffield L 27 6 8 4.71 26 22 107.0 113 56 15 45 82
Asher Wojciechowski R 34 4 5 4.73 16 14 70.3 69 37 13 28 66
Collin Kober R 28 2 3 4.76 39 1 45.3 41 24 7 21 48
Tommy Milone L 36 4 5 4.76 20 10 73.7 76 39 13 22 57
Fred Villarreal R 25 1 2 4.84 31 2 57.7 60 31 7 22 37
Peyton Alford L 25 3 3 4.89 31 2 49.7 45 27 7 29 50
Jake Haberer R 28 1 3 4.93 37 0 38.3 36 21 6 22 38
Travis Kuhn R 25 2 4 5.03 41 0 48.3 45 27 8 27 47
Leon Hunter R 26 3 6 5.04 29 0 44.7 45 25 8 22 39
Jarod Bayless R 26 2 2 5.13 25 0 33.3 32 19 6 12 32
Patrick Weigel R 28 2 4 5.13 42 4 54.3 50 31 7 35 50
Evan Johnson R 26 1 2 5.17 23 0 31.3 28 18 5 22 34
Ian McKinney L 28 4 6 5.21 17 15 76.0 77 44 13 41 63
Stephen Kolek R 26 6 9 5.25 24 21 111.3 117 65 18 49 85
Ben Onyshko L 26 2 3 5.33 38 0 49.0 46 29 7 26 44
Kyle Bird L 30 2 4 5.36 39 0 45.3 44 27 7 29 39
Adam Hill R 26 3 8 6.07 17 16 75.7 81 51 17 42 66

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Andrés Muñoz 64.3 13.6 3.2 0.8 8.9% 37.5% .273 142 2.70 70 1.5
Luis Castillo 171.7 9.3 2.9 0.7 8.0% 25.4% .268 133 3.25 75 4.2
Casey Sadler 47.7 8.1 2.6 0.9 7.1% 21.8% .271 117 3.78 86 0.7
Diego Castillo 56.7 9.8 3.3 1.1 8.9% 26.4% .273 114 3.89 88 0.7
George Kirby 136.7 8.7 1.8 1.1 4.8% 23.6% .294 112 3.45 90 2.5
Matt Brash 79.3 11.2 4.8 0.9 12.3% 29.0% .291 109 3.67 91 1.2
Logan Gilbert 174.7 8.5 2.5 1.1 6.7% 22.6% .285 109 3.86 92 3.0
Matt Festa 51.0 10.4 3.0 1.2 8.1% 28.1% .278 107 3.80 93 0.3
Paul Sewald 57.3 11.3 2.8 1.6 7.7% 30.6% .271 105 4.01 95 0.4
Robbie Ray 167.3 10.5 3.1 1.6 8.3% 27.9% .279 104 4.21 96 2.5
Bryce Miller 119.7 8.5 3.0 1.0 7.9% 22.4% .281 103 3.86 97 1.8
Trevor Gott 45.7 8.9 2.8 1.2 7.4% 23.9% .270 101 3.94 99 0.3
Isaiah Campbell 41.0 8.6 3.1 1.1 8.1% 22.5% .277 100 4.01 100 0.4
Gabe Speier 54.3 8.4 2.7 1.2 7.0% 22.4% .285 100 4.06 100 0.3
Penn Murfee 80.3 9.6 3.0 1.2 8.0% 25.4% .286 98 3.99 102 0.7
Justin Topa 28.7 6.6 3.5 0.9 8.7% 16.7% .292 97 4.51 103 0.0
Taylor Dollard 122.3 7.4 2.3 1.2 6.0% 19.6% .288 96 4.16 104 1.5
Darren McCaughan 135.0 6.9 1.8 1.2 4.8% 18.6% .285 96 4.12 104 1.5
Blake Weiman 41.0 7.5 2.2 1.3 5.8% 19.7% .283 95 4.35 105 0.1
Chris Clarke 103.0 6.4 2.0 1.1 5.3% 16.8% .290 95 4.16 106 1.1
Taylor Williams 53.3 7.9 3.4 1.0 8.7% 20.4% .288 94 4.37 106 0.1
Chris Flexen 132.0 6.6 2.9 1.2 7.6% 17.1% .288 94 4.50 106 1.3
Jose Rodriguez 78.7 7.3 3.3 1.1 8.6% 18.9% .284 94 4.36 107 0.7
Dayeison Arias 36.0 10.3 4.5 1.3 11.5% 26.3% .278 93 4.43 107 0.1
Juan Mercedes 105.7 7.6 2.7 1.2 7.2% 20.0% .283 93 4.27 107 1.1
Drew Steckenrider 48.0 7.1 3.2 1.3 8.4% 18.7% .277 92 4.65 109 0.0
Ryder Ryan 51.7 8.4 4.2 1.0 10.6% 21.2% .285 91 4.43 110 -0.1
Marco Gonzales 155.7 5.7 2.5 1.4 6.5% 14.9% .275 90 4.91 111 1.3
Brennan Bernardino 30.3 8.0 3.6 1.2 9.2% 20.6% .287 89 4.67 112 -0.1
Austin Warner 86.7 7.4 3.3 1.2 8.5% 18.8% .291 89 4.63 112 0.5
Prelander Berroa 96.3 9.9 5.4 1.2 13.5% 24.7% .280 89 4.64 113 0.7
J.B. Bukauskas 50.0 8.8 3.6 1.3 9.2% 22.6% .290 88 4.33 113 0.3
Juan Then 55.7 7.8 3.1 1.5 7.9% 20.0% .286 88 4.61 114 0.4
Devin Sweet 59.0 8.5 3.4 1.5 8.6% 21.9% .287 87 4.73 115 0.1
Emerson Hancock 90.3 7.0 3.5 1.3 9.0% 18.0% .279 87 4.80 115 0.6
Easton McGee 101.0 5.9 1.8 1.4 4.7% 15.5% .287 86 4.68 117 0.6
Nick Margevicius 66.0 7.1 2.7 1.4 7.0% 18.2% .295 86 4.64 117 0.2
Kyle Hill 31.0 8.4 6.1 0.9 14.7% 20.3% .287 85 4.57 117 -0.2
Riley O’Brien 75.3 8.5 4.9 1.3 12.1% 21.0% .282 85 5.08 117 0.3
Chris Mazza 55.7 7.4 3.4 1.3 8.6% 18.9% .291 85 4.82 118 0.1
Konner Wade 93.7 5.3 2.1 1.3 5.5% 13.7% .299 84 4.72 119 0.5
Justus Sheffield 107.0 6.9 3.8 1.3 9.4% 17.2% .298 84 4.87 119 0.5
Asher Wojciechowski 70.3 8.4 3.6 1.7 9.2% 21.7% .286 84 5.09 119 0.3
Collin Kober 45.3 9.5 4.2 1.4 10.6% 24.1% .286 83 4.90 120 -0.2
Tommy Milone 73.7 7.0 2.7 1.6 7.0% 18.2% .285 83 4.88 120 0.2
Fred Villarreal 57.7 5.8 3.4 1.1 8.7% 14.6% .288 82 4.90 122 -0.2
Peyton Alford 49.7 9.1 5.3 1.3 12.9% 22.2% .284 81 5.03 123 -0.2
Jake Haberer 38.3 8.9 5.2 1.4 12.6% 21.8% .288 81 5.08 124 -0.3
Travis Kuhn 48.3 8.8 5.0 1.5 12.3% 21.5% .280 79 5.41 127 -0.5
Leon Hunter 44.7 7.9 4.4 1.6 10.8% 19.2% .287 79 5.28 127 -0.4
Jarod Bayless 33.3 8.6 3.2 1.6 8.3% 22.2% .283 77 5.19 129 -0.3
Patrick Weigel 54.3 8.3 5.8 1.2 14.1% 20.1% .283 77 5.31 129 -0.3
Evan Johnson 31.3 9.8 6.3 1.4 15.2% 23.4% .284 77 5.45 130 -0.4
Ian McKinney 76.0 7.5 4.9 1.5 12.0% 18.4% .287 76 5.65 131 -0.1
Stephen Kolek 111.3 6.9 4.0 1.5 9.8% 17.0% .291 76 5.32 132 -0.2
Ben Onyshko 49.0 8.1 4.8 1.3 11.7% 19.8% .283 75 5.60 134 -0.7
Kyle Bird 45.3 7.7 5.8 1.4 13.9% 18.7% .282 74 5.62 135 -0.7
Adam Hill 75.7 7.9 5.0 2.0 12.0% 18.9% .291 65 6.27 153 -0.8

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Andrés Muñoz Antonio Osuna Scott Williamson Jonathan Broxton 2.3 0.5 2.04 3.80
Luis Castillo Jake Arrieta Bartolo Colon Bob Gibson 5.3 2.9 2.55 3.52
Casey Sadler Carlos Almanzar Mike Timlin Jim Brosnan 1.0 0.2 2.80 4.31
Diego Castillo Pedro Báez Dave Tobik Bob Howry 1.3 0.0 2.82 4.27
George Kirby Roy Face Joe Landrum Jameson Taillon 3.7 1.7 2.89 4.09
Matt Brash Herbert Benzel Luke Irvine Rick Huisman 1.9 0.1 3.04 4.62
Logan Gilbert Marcus Stroman Jameson Taillon Noah Syndergaard 4.2 2.1 3.12 4.15
Matt Festa Luis Vizcaino Jeremy Fikac Randy St. Claire 0.9 -0.3 2.98 4.60
Paul Sewald Dan Miceli Luis Vizcaino Joakim Soria 1.3 -0.6 2.74 5.37
Robbie Ray Chuck Finley Mickey Lolich Chris Short 3.7 0.8 3.25 4.66
Bryce Miller Andy Hawkins Dave Goltz Ron Robinson 2.6 0.9 3.38 4.45
Trevor Gott Dan Miceli Tom Gorman Bob James 0.8 -0.3 3.11 5.07
Isaiah Campbell Joe Kerrigan Manny Muniz Jeff Harris 0.7 0.1 3.36 4.40
Gabe Speier Tim Kubinski Rudy Arias Ted Davidson 0.8 -0.2 3.22 4.74
Penn Murfee Sam LeCure Scott Atchison Marco Estrada 1.3 -0.1 3.39 4.80
Justin Topa Todd Williams Jim Corsi Cecil Upshaw 0.2 -0.2 3.64 4.67
Taylor Dollard Kennie Steenstra Ryan Franklin Mike Ferry 2.4 0.6 3.53 4.78
Darren McCaughan Nick Blackburn Thad Weber 웨버 Alvin Spearman 2.4 0.7 3.65 4.59
Blake Weiman Harry Eisenstat Roberto Rivera Dave Schuler 0.5 -0.3 3.42 4.94
Chris Clarke Adrian Sampson 샘슨 Jaron Long Pat Rice 1.8 0.3 3.63 4.83
Taylor Williams Evan Meek 에반 Dave Gumpert Bob Scott 0.6 -0.3 3.62 4.89
Chris Flexen Hugh Sooter Mike Pelfrey Chris Holt 2.1 0.5 3.76 4.80
Jose Rodriguez Eric Thompson Steve Olsen Ken Holloway 1.3 0.2 3.76 4.77
Dayeison Arias Brent Stentz Jake Meyer Lloyd Merritt 0.5 -0.3 3.50 5.10
Juan Mercedes Alex Madrid Roger Erickson Tyler Herron 1.9 0.3 3.67 4.85
Drew Steckenrider Jim Corsi Ryan Mattheus Jared Hughes 0.4 -0.4 3.67 5.13
Ryder Ryan Bruce Dal Canton Todd Erdos Mike Bumstead 0.4 -0.6 3.72 5.13
Marco Gonzales Kirk Rueter Joe Saunders Jarrod Washburn 2.1 0.3 3.97 4.98
Brennan Bernardino Danny Boone Shawn Barton Jack O’Connor 0.3 -0.4 3.64 5.32
Austin Warner Matt Blank Ron Mrozinski Rob Zastryzny 1.0 -0.2 4.05 5.14
Prelander Berroa Al Autry Tyler Thornburg Russ Springer 1.5 -0.3 3.89 5.30
J.B. Bukauskas Jim Dickson Logan Easley Dave Reynolds 0.7 -0.1 3.90 5.22
Juan Then Craig Lopez Richard Leavell Angel De Jesus 0.9 -0.1 3.90 5.32
Devin Sweet Chris Wright Mike McNutt Antonio Alfonseca 0.6 -0.4 3.91 5.20
Emerson Hancock Danny Parks William Stiegemeier Jim Hunter 1.1 0.0 4.18 5.12
Easton McGee Mike Christopher Don Dunster Brandon Sinnery 1.3 -0.2 4.06 5.31
Nick Margevicius Reid Love Derrin Ebert Angel Cuan 0.7 -0.3 4.09 5.23
Kyle Hill John Tronerud Jim Winn Kevin Meistickle 0.1 -0.4 4.05 5.30
Riley O’Brien John Fritz Tony Fiore Joan Gregorio 0.9 -0.4 4.09 5.49
Chris Mazza Sergio Lizarraga Francisco Rivera Josh Smith 0.5 -0.4 4.01 5.41
Konner Wade Andrew Walker Kyle Ruwe Dan Rambo 1.0 -0.1 4.26 5.25
Justus Sheffield Josh Muecke Steve Hammond Mike Montgomery 1.2 -0.3 4.19 5.35
Asher Wojciechowski Jack Knott Carl Willey Mel Harder 0.7 -0.3 4.13 5.42
Collin Kober Jason Shiell Jamie Brisco Scott Gracey 0.2 -0.7 4.03 5.71
Tommy Milone Lefty Stewart Terry Mulholland Mark Hendrickson 0.7 -0.4 4.17 5.52
Fred Villarreal Steven O’Brien Jared Messer Carroll Moulden 0.2 -0.6 4.33 5.37
Peyton Alford Matt Marksberry James Vallone Kenny Esposito 0.2 -0.7 4.21 5.67
Jake Haberer Trevor Sansom Benji Miller Jorge De Leon 0.0 -0.8 4.36 5.99
Travis Kuhn Felix Villegas Frank Batista Seth Garrison -0.1 -0.8 4.44 5.57
Leon Hunter Brad Pautz Reggie Rivard Roy Bailey -0.1 -0.9 4.41 5.82
Jarod Bayless Scott Middaugh Rich Graham Jimmy Marrujo 0.0 -0.6 4.44 6.03
Patrick Weigel Joe Colon Jimmy Cordero Ryan Perry 0.2 -0.9 4.40 6.02
Evan Johnson Dick Colpaert Robert Schwarzkoff Richard Johnson 0.0 -0.8 4.45 6.30
Ian McKinney Chris Pollack Joshua Turley Derrick Gordon 0.4 -0.8 4.67 5.84
Stephen Kolek Scott Blewett Corey Ray Jake Jewell 0.4 -1.1 4.82 5.91
Ben Onyshko Anthony Ferrari Robby Scott James Thomas -0.2 -1.1 4.60 6.00
Kyle Bird Mark Shiflett Nick Martin Dean Hartgraves -0.3 -1.2 4.64 6.40
Adam Hill Will Landsheft Chris Carden Zach Lewis -0.3 -1.6 5.52 6.93

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

122 Comments
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zstam
21 days ago

Teoscar Hernández is a fine short-term fill-in, but it feels like a top team would have him as the weakest player in the lineup.”

Going to throw a reverse karate chop here. On what team would this be the weakest player in the lineup?

seafanconnecticut
21 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

I refuse to believe Chas McCormick is better.

And uh Dodger’s LF / CF options? Huh?

Last edited 21 days ago by seafanconnecticut
baubomember
21 days ago

I wouldn’t say McCormick is better, but he put up 2.0 WAR compared to Hernandez 2.4 WAR despite playing quite a bit less since he started the season as a bench player. McCormick is the lesser hitter and better fielder. But I’d say they’re in the same range.

But the fact that we are comparing him to Chaz McCormick I feel is kinda the point of that Dan is making here. He belongs in the bottom of a lineup on a top team but on the Mariners he’ll be in the middle.

Last edited 21 days ago by baubo
kojo
20 days ago
Reply to  baubo

Teo would still be hitting in the heart of the order on a top team. He suffered an oblique injury a week into the season, then hit like crap for about three weeks after his return. He hit so poorly after his return, he had a 33 wRC+ and -0.6 fWAR by May 26. At the end of May, he seemed to come out of it. From June-September, he earned 3.0 fWAR hitting .285 / .331 / .536 and had a 146 wRC+ in 431 PA, which was similar to his 2021 season where he hit .296 / .346 / .524 for a 132 wRC+. The guy is a beast at the plate. Any team would want his bat in the line up.

zstam
20 days ago
Reply to  baubo

No team is putting a guy who has averaged 34 HRs per 162 games in the bottom of their order.

Perhaps the AL All-star team.

airforce21one
20 days ago
Reply to  baubo

If we are talking about a lineup, why are we including defensive WAR?

sadtrombonemember
21 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Hernandez is a weaker player than James Outman, Trayce Thompson, Miguel Rojas, Eduardo Escobar, Omar Narvaez, Aaron Hicks, Jose Trevino, Austin Nola, and Chas McCormick?

(this last one I might actually buy, but the team also has Maldonado)

Seanmember
21 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Aren’t the Braves still counting on Ozuna and Rosario as starters? Teoscar’s definitely not worse than the Padres’ LF situation, either. (Edit: forgot Tatis will bump Carpenter down the depth chart.)

Last edited 21 days ago by Sean
raregokusmember
21 days ago
Reply to  Sean

I’m not sure about ATL, but in SD’s case, Dan is likely assuming either Tatis or Soto will be in LF most days.

sadtrombonemember
21 days ago
Reply to  Sean

Hernandez is definitely, definitely better than Ozuna and Rosario.

casey jmember
21 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Also, More dramatically, Teoscar isn’t even really a better hitter than Eugenio Suarez on the Mariners, either. He is one of M’s middle-of-the-order hitters

sadtrombonemember
21 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

To be fair, this is probably the worst take I’ve seen you have in an article. Which fortunately isn’t that bad but…yes I’m pretty sure you’re wrong about this one.

soddingjunkmailmember
21 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

“Feels like” covers a multitude of sins!

casey jmember
21 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

You’re fine Dan 🙂 We still appreciate you tons, Man!
Shoot, you could be right… I guess haha

Last edited 21 days ago by casey j
mbs2001
20 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Dear Mr. Szymborski,

Im sorry, but this isn’t working lol.

The Teoscar thing doesn’t pass the initial sniff test (crusty baseball senses), nor does the data lineup.

I’ve always seen Hernandez as a flawed bopper who others seem to overvalue, especially in my OBP leagues, but in this case you’re undervalueing his sluggerness.

Love your content brother.

Last edited 20 days ago by mbs2001
airforce21one
20 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

Again – we’re talking about a lineup position here, so I just want to clarify: you think Chas McCormick (projected 99 wRC in 2023) is a better hitter than Teoscar Hernandez (projected 120 wRC in 2023)?

catmanwayne
20 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

I’d love to see a contending lineup where a projected 120-130ish wRC+ bat (ranging from your system to ATC’s system) is at the bottom.

balfondmember
20 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

either mea culpa or find real statistical backing. Teoscar is 29th in 2 year wRC+.

sadtrombonemember
21 days ago
Reply to  zstam

Yeah I don’t buy this at all. I’m pretty confident there are zero teams where he would be the weakest hitter in the lineup. 116 OPS+ is very good.

In terms of the weakest player in the lineup…I think the only team where that might be true is the maybe the Cards (depending on what you think of Tyler O’Neill or Donovan), which is super-ironic because Dan used them as an example of a team like the Mariners here. I’d take Hernandez over Escobar and Narvaez on the Mets, over the Dodgers’ CF and LF and SS situation, over the Padres’ catching situation, over the Yankees and their LF and C situation, over the Astros’ catching and maybe CF situation, over the Braves’ LF or SS situation (depending on where Grissom isn’t playing)…

sandwiches4evermember
21 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

I think specifically saying “in the lineup” makes it sound like “weakest hitter”.

SenorGato
21 days ago
Reply to  Dan Szymborski

I noticed that too! Think we all agree he can hit but I’m not even sure he’s a particularly safe hitter. Hits the ball hard but there were more GBs and fewer FBs in 2022, chases, 31% CSW…Really bad defender…Makes sense to me :shrug:

kojo
20 days ago
Reply to  SenorGato

From 2020-2022, he had a 132 wRC+, which is tied for 17th among all other qualified batters over the last three seasons (142, 132, 129). That’s a pretty dependable bat.

Jason Bmember
20 days ago
Reply to  kojo

All this Teoscar love is making me sad for my Blue Jays 🙁

cheekfullofchew
20 days ago
Reply to  Jason B

just remember what a butcher he is in the outfield you’ll feel better.

sadtrombonemember
21 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Another way of putting this: Hernandez is quite possibly the 7th or 8th best position player on a “real” championship contender. But per ZiPs, he’s only the 7th best guy on this team either.

The problem, if you have any with them, isn’t that with Teoscar Hernandez. It’s with the Mariners not having a guy like Kyle Tucker or Jose Altuve to pair with Rodriguez. Which, I think it’s fair to note that this lineup isn’t anywhere near the class of the Astros or Padres, but that’s an extraordinarily high bar even among contenders.

Ivan_Grushenkomember
20 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

In the Altuve mold, Steamer sees Yoshida as a 140 OPS+ guy with a .388 OBP. It looks like ZiPS came out before Boston signed him.

slamcactusmember
20 days ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Optimistic Ms fans think Raleigh’s that guy & point to a swing change he made when he was sent down last April as evidence (32 wRC+ before, 127 after).

I’m not convinced.

sadtrombonemember
20 days ago
Reply to  slamcactus

I mean he was a 4-win player last year (in 400 PAs, although that’s a normal amount of PAs for a catcher). That’s in all-star territory even if he regresses a bit with the bat towards league average.

He’s still probably not as good a hitter as Altuve or Bregman or Tucker, but…that’s a high bar.

Last edited 20 days ago by sadtrombone
bookbook
19 days ago
Reply to  slamcactus

Sure. That week in April changed Raleigh’s swing and turned everything around. (I think he just got over the jitters, and leaned into his prodigious power)

raregokusmember
21 days ago
Reply to  zstam

Gotta be his defense. That defensive projection up there isn’t very pretty. ~16% above league average hitting isn’t worth having that bad of a glove in the outfield every day for a number of teams.

casey jmember
21 days ago
Reply to  raregokus

I always thought, visually, that he seemed like a good outfielder? Anybody else? I know this doesn’t mean much but I’d like to hear from people who have watched him a lot more.

catmanwayne
20 days ago
Reply to  casey j

He’s sneaky fast when healthy and has a strong arm, which keeps him playable. Guessing maybe he sometimes takes weird routes/makes bad reads? I’m not sure either. Based on the few Blue Jays games I’ve watched over the years he looked pretty good in the corners. They even had him in CF for a not insignificant amount of time a while back too, although it wasn’t ideal.

cheekfullofchew
20 days ago
Reply to  casey j

he’s horrible and often seems like he’s not trying that hard, but he actually is.

SenorGato
21 days ago
Reply to  raregokus

Top teams play defense…IIRC the Yankees and Astros were the top two by most metrics last year, Guardians were up there…

bookbook
20 days ago
Reply to  SenorGato

The Yankees super teams of 20+ years ago, the last Yankee juggernaut, were not pretty on defense. Jeter, Williams, Posada up the middle, were… excellent bats as defenders. It worked just fine.

sadtrombonemember
21 days ago
Reply to  raregokus

It’s not. A -5 OAA in RF is not that bad, and that’s largely consistent with what ZiPS projects. The positional adjustment dings him pretty hard; a guy who is 15% above league average and a bit below average defender in RF is roughly a 2-win player.

The big difference is that ZiPS thinks a guy who had a 1000 PAs at league average to from 2018-2019 and is now running higher BABIPs while K’ing 4 times as much as he walks is not sustainable. He’s run wRC+’s of 130 the last couple of seasons. That guy is like a 3 win player over 600 PAs.

jasonl
20 days ago
Reply to  zstam

Depending how you feel about Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Lars Nootbaar, he could be considered in the Cardinals lineup

jmaicardimember
20 days ago
Reply to  zstam

I think the spirit of Dan’s comment is generally correct. Removing the recency bias from his 4 WAR season and looking at him from a big picture view, I think ideally he’s not the guy you’d lean on offensively. Similarly it’s not clear that France is that guy either. Both seem more like solid quality hitters who amount to slightly above average regulars at low value defensive positions, and that’s definitely valuable. What he implies is that the M’s probably need one more potent bat, which has been the general consensus I think for most of us. How they end up doing that, or if, remains to be seen. Ideally they’ll be able to put a deal together that doesn’t completely kill off whatever remaining minor league assets they have, but I can see them going into the year doing nothing and hoping for a bit of good luck. As things stand, that might not be the worst idea either.