2023 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s team is the Washington Nationals.

Batters

If there’s any silver lining for a team that will likely be at the bottom of the division, it’s that this is a fairly decent floor for a last-place squad, unless it faces particularly bad injury luck. There are no projected stars remaining anywhere on the roster, but the Nationals do have a pretty good front line of fringe options at most positions. When we mash-up the ZiPS projections and the current iteration of the depth charts, no individual position combines for three wins, but no position comes in at under a win either. Players like Victor Robles, Joey Meneses, and Jeimer Candelario may not have exciting upside, but they’re at least major league players. I’d be midly surprised to see Washington lose 107 games, which it did last season even with a half-season from Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

ZiPS still sees CJ Abrams as risky and is just about out of hope for Carter Kieboom. There’s a bright spot in the form of Jake Alu, who destroyed pitchers in the high minors, even when you take the 2022 helium out of those numbers in the form of a translation. ZiPS doesn’t see him being a near-star offensive player, but the probabilistic measure I use had him as one of the best defensive minor league players; he’s listed as +5 runs at third base, and if ZiPS had been as confident about the translated defense estimate as it is about MLB defensive measures, the projection would actually be +12. Meneses gets a better projection than similar veteran surprise Frank Schwindel got after 2021, and ZiPS sees Alex Call as a legitimate stopgap corner outfielder of the Anthony Santander variety. Abrams, along with Keibert Ruiz and Luis García, has significant upside, and it wouldn’t take much to see any of these projections blow up in a positive way with some real steps forwards from these youngsters.

Pitchers

The pitching is rather thinner than the offense. The chances of Patrick Corbin coming around have become quite slim, and at this point, what they get from Stephen Strasburg this year is a total crapshoot; I think that the “true” variance is a good deal larger than ZiPS does. The Nats will make the playoffs again someday, but I’d be surprised if many of the names here are on that future roster; ZiPS doesn’t expect a single Washington pitcher to have at least 20 WAR remaining in their careers.

MLB relievers averaged a 103 ERA+ in 2022; only a single National under contract, Kyle Finnegan, projects as better than a coin flip of passing that threshold. This isn’t something new for a team that won a World Series despite pretending 80% of the bullpen didn’t actually exist, but the Nationals no longer have the strength elsewhere to paper over the relief problems. Fixing this shouldn’t be the priority right now, though; it will be a few years before they have many wins to protect.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Jake Alu L 26 3B 557 506 65 129 35 2 15 70 40 116 8 2
Jeimer Candelario B 29 3B 537 482 62 118 29 2 18 61 47 121 1 1
Keibert Ruiz B 24 C 431 394 44 103 21 0 13 47 30 45 3 1
Joey Meneses R 31 1B 590 543 60 144 25 1 27 73 37 138 1 1
Alex Call R 28 CF 437 380 57 90 18 2 12 55 44 90 7 4
Luis García L 23 SS 566 534 66 140 28 4 17 64 27 110 4 4
Victor Robles R 26 CF 475 420 54 96 22 2 8 40 29 114 17 6
Andrew Stevenson L 29 CF 513 472 60 121 23 6 11 60 31 133 17 4
CJ Abrams L 22 SS 472 439 64 113 24 2 9 44 17 86 16 7
Nelson Cruz R 42 DH 480 425 56 106 17 0 20 66 46 114 2 1
Ildemaro Vargas B 31 SS 438 410 47 103 22 3 7 41 24 54 4 2
Cesar Hernandez B 33 2B 579 525 65 128 26 2 9 42 46 109 6 2
Luke Voit R 32 1B 493 432 57 103 20 1 22 62 50 149 1 0
Robert Hassell III L 21 CF 535 488 59 113 24 2 10 54 42 131 13 3
Stone Garrett R 27 RF 480 450 58 105 21 2 21 67 22 144 10 3
Carter Kieboom R 25 3B 408 353 49 80 14 1 10 46 43 98 1 1
Lane Thomas R 27 LF 486 436 59 106 24 3 15 52 43 119 8 5
Israel Pineda R 23 C 384 359 37 76 16 1 12 40 22 113 1 1
James Wood L 20 CF 336 302 45 70 18 1 9 44 29 98 9 3
Riley Adams R 27 C 318 279 34 59 14 1 10 40 28 105 0 1
John Nogowski R 30 1B 429 370 46 85 18 0 6 47 47 71 5 2
Jecksson Flores R 29 2B 345 311 31 68 13 1 3 32 25 62 3 3
Cole Freeman R 28 CF 401 364 51 91 15 1 3 45 20 55 14 4
Tres Barrera R 28 C 306 275 26 62 12 1 6 30 24 69 0 1
Erick Mejia B 28 3B 467 428 53 99 20 3 9 46 33 98 9 4
Yadiel Hernandez L 35 LF 346 317 38 81 13 0 12 41 26 81 2 1
Will Frizzell L 24 DH 181 167 21 41 9 0 8 27 10 50 0 1
Darren Baker L 24 2B 444 409 44 95 19 1 2 33 26 90 7 3
Lucius Fox B 25 SS 341 304 41 63 13 3 4 33 30 91 13 4
Adrián Sanchez R 32 2B 274 257 30 62 14 1 3 25 14 55 3 2
Richard Urena B 27 3B 344 325 29 76 18 1 5 35 13 83 2 1
Drew Millas B 25 C 348 310 31 65 12 1 4 29 34 85 4 2
Jake Noll R 29 2B 441 415 47 104 23 2 10 53 18 87 3 1
David Dahl L 29 RF 372 342 46 82 20 2 9 41 24 95 3 1
DJ Peters 피터스 R 27 LF 439 394 45 80 16 2 13 59 32 156 2 1
Nick Banks L 28 RF 393 365 37 79 17 2 9 43 23 125 2 1
Alcides Escobar R 36 SS 340 316 40 77 18 1 4 30 16 70 3 1
Taylor Gushue B 29 C 287 256 25 54 13 0 7 29 27 88 0 1
Jackson Cluff L 26 SS 371 334 31 64 16 1 4 37 23 126 5 2
Wilson Garcia B 29 DH 439 417 36 103 21 0 14 53 17 86 0 1
Leonel Valera R 23 SS 513 472 59 98 15 5 14 60 32 183 14 2
Andrew Young R 29 LF 394 348 43 70 18 1 14 58 29 140 2 1
Cody Wilson R 26 CF 164 151 15 26 4 2 1 12 10 64 7 2
Gilbert Lara R 25 SS 348 332 24 69 14 1 5 33 11 109 0 1
Maikel Franco R 30 3B 406 379 34 86 20 0 10 43 21 71 1 1
Armond Upshaw B 27 CF 300 269 34 51 8 4 4 33 21 113 11 6
Tito Polo R 28 CF 278 255 30 55 9 3 4 29 12 73 11 5
Wilmer Perez R 25 C 96 89 8 19 3 0 1 8 4 18 0 1
Brady Lindsly L 25 C 221 204 16 40 7 1 4 18 15 77 0 1
Donovan Casey R 27 RF 444 412 50 88 17 3 10 50 24 158 8 2
Daniel Johnson L 27 DH 392 361 37 78 16 3 11 43 26 126 4 3
Jack Dunn R 26 CF 399 358 40 79 14 1 2 33 32 89 6 4
Justin Connell R 24 RF 447 402 50 88 15 2 9 49 34 126 7 6
Omar Meregildo R 25 1B 426 389 44 79 17 0 14 51 30 155 1 2
Franklin Barreto R 27 2B 327 298 39 55 13 2 7 33 25 123 8 2
Trey Harris R 27 RF 378 347 37 80 14 1 6 44 19 84 3 3
Yasel Antuna B 23 LF 490 436 53 88 21 1 9 43 47 135 8 4
Dee Strange-Gordon L 35 SS 287 272 30 69 9 3 2 22 11 39 9 3
Onix Vega R 24 C 283 255 18 54 10 1 2 28 20 66 2 1
Jeremy De La Rosa L 21 CF 446 417 43 86 17 3 8 39 28 152 14 5
Drew Mendoza L 25 1B 396 363 31 67 12 1 6 37 27 132 2 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Jake Alu 557 .255 .312 .421 101 .166 .304 5 2.6 .315
Jeimer Candelario 537 .245 .318 .425 104 .180 .292 0 2.2 .322
Keibert Ruiz 431 .261 .321 .414 102 .152 .268 -1 2.1 .319
Joey Meneses 590 .265 .312 .464 112 .199 .310 4 2.1 .329
Alex Call 437 .237 .326 .389 98 .153 .281 0 1.5 .314
Luis García 566 .262 .297 .425 97 .163 .302 -6 1.5 .308
Victor Robles 475 .229 .301 .348 80 .119 .295 7 1.4 .287
Andrew Stevenson 513 .256 .311 .400 96 .144 .335 -3 1.4 .307
CJ Abrams 472 .257 .300 .383 88 .125 .302 -2 1.2 .297
Nelson Cruz 480 .249 .327 .431 108 .181 .296 0 1.2 .325
Ildemaro Vargas 438 .251 .292 .371 83 .120 .275 2 1.1 .287
Cesar Hernandez 579 .244 .310 .352 84 .109 .292 -1 1.0 .292
Luke Voit 493 .238 .327 .442 111 .204 .310 -6 0.9 .332
Robert Hassell III 535 .232 .295 .350 79 .119 .297 2 0.9 .284
Stone Garrett 480 .233 .275 .429 91 .196 .295 4 0.8 .300
Carter Kieboom 408 .227 .324 .357 89 .130 .286 -2 0.7 .302
Lane Thomas 486 .243 .315 .415 101 .172 .301 -3 0.7 .317
Israel Pineda 384 .212 .260 .362 70 .150 .274 4 0.7 .270
James Wood 336 .232 .307 .387 91 .156 .313 -3 0.6 .304
Riley Adams 318 .211 .305 .376 88 .165 .299 -5 0.6 .301
John Nogowski 429 .230 .326 .327 83 .097 .270 5 0.5 .295
Jecksson Flores 345 .219 .286 .296 62 .077 .264 7 0.3 .261
Cole Freeman 401 .250 .304 .321 74 .071 .288 0 0.3 .279
Tres Barrera 306 .225 .295 .342 76 .116 .280 -2 0.3 .281
Erick Mejia 467 .231 .286 .355 77 .124 .280 0 0.3 .280
Yadiel Hernandez 346 .256 .312 .410 98 .155 .308 -4 0.2 .312
Will Frizzell 181 .246 .293 .443 100 .198 .303 0 0.2 .314
Darren Baker 444 .232 .279 .298 61 .066 .293 7 0.2 .256
Lucius Fox 341 .207 .286 .309 66 .102 .282 0 0.2 .267
Adrián Sanchez 274 .241 .282 .339 72 .097 .296 2 0.2 .270
Richard Urena 344 .234 .265 .342 67 .108 .300 4 0.1 .263
Drew Millas 348 .210 .290 .294 63 .084 .276 0 0.1 .264
Jake Noll 441 .251 .288 .388 85 .137 .296 -7 0.1 .292
David Dahl 372 .240 .290 .389 86 .149 .307 0 0.1 .294
DJ Peters 439 .203 .276 .353 73 .150 .298 7 0.1 .274
Nick Banks 393 .216 .270 .348 70 .132 .303 7 0.0 .269
Alcides Escobar 340 .244 .289 .345 75 .101 .302 -5 -0.1 .278
Taylor Gushue 287 .211 .287 .344 74 .133 .292 -5 -0.1 .277
Jackson Cluff 371 .192 .261 .281 51 .090 .294 4 -0.1 .244
Wilson Garcia 439 .247 .280 .398 85 .151 .281 0 -0.2 .291
Leonel Valera 513 .208 .267 .350 69 .142 .305 -7 -0.2 .269
Andrew Young 394 .201 .289 .379 84 .178 .289 -3 -0.3 .294
Cody Wilson 164 .172 .233 .245 33 .073 .291 4 -0.3 .216
Gilbert Lara 348 .208 .241 .301 50 .093 .294 4 -0.4 .238
Maikel Franco 406 .227 .268 .359 72 .132 .255 -2 -0.4 .269
Armond Upshaw 300 .190 .265 .294 55 .104 .309 1 -0.4 .251
Tito Polo 278 .216 .264 .322 62 .106 .287 -1 -0.4 .256
Wilmer Perez 96 .213 .253 .281 48 .067 .257 -3 -0.5 .236
Brady Lindsly 221 .196 .253 .299 53 .103 .293 -3 -0.6 .245
Donovan Casey 444 .214 .264 .342 67 .129 .320 3 -0.6 .264
Daniel Johnson 392 .216 .273 .368 76 .152 .299 0 -0.6 .278
Jack Dunn 399 .221 .292 .282 61 .061 .288 -3 -0.7 .260
Justin Connell 447 .219 .290 .333 73 .114 .296 -1 -0.7 .277
Omar Meregildo 426 .203 .270 .355 72 .152 .295 1 -0.8 .274
Franklin Barreto 327 .185 .254 .312 56 .128 .286 -3 -0.8 .251
Trey Harris 378 .231 .289 .329 71 .098 .288 -2 -0.8 .274
Yasel Antuna 490 .202 .282 .317 66 .115 .271 0 -0.9 .267
Dee Strange-Gordon 287 .254 .286 .331 71 .077 .290 -13 -1.1 .270
Onix Vega 283 .212 .283 .282 58 .071 .278 -12 -1.3 .254
Jeremy De La Rosa 446 .206 .258 .319 59 .113 .304 -9 -1.6 .253
Drew Mendoza 396 .185 .250 .273 45 .088 .271 0 -2.1 .234

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Jake Alu Gene Alley Kyle Seager German Rivera
Jeimer Candelario Jarrod Patterson Jim Davenport Jim Fregosi
Keibert Ruiz Dave Rader Milt May Tim McCarver
Joey Meneses Xavier Nady Jose Guillen Jim Rice
Alex Call Turner Ward Wayne Comer Chris Prieto
Luis García Rennie Stennett Tony Kubek Robin Yount
Victor Robles Damon Buford Gary Thomas Winston Ficklin
Andrew Stevenson Ron LeFlore Alejandro De Aza Willie McGee
CJ Abrams Ketel Marte Chin-Lung Hu Drew Cumberland
Nelson Cruz Fred McGriff Pedro Guerrero Norm Cash
Ildemaro Vargas Dave Hajek Jack Wilson Gary Disarcina
Cesar Hernandez Milt Stock Zeb Terry Mickey Morandini
Luke Voit Pancho Herrera Joe Lis Mo Vaughn
Robert Hassell III James Bryan Rex Goodson Terry Puhl
Stone Garrett Bill Schlesinger Sammy Sosa Glenallen Hill
Carter Kieboom Buddy Hunter Ed Jurak Rick Morris
Lane Thomas James Mouton Henri Stanley Jeff DaVanon
Israel Pineda Bill Hayes Jim Campanis Pete Beeler
James Wood Gene Locklear Dick Kokos Slade Heathcott
Riley Adams Jayhawk Owens Tony Caldwell David Ross
John Nogowski Billy Smith Charlie Montoyo Mike Twardoski
Jecksson Flores Keoni De Renne Jim Snyder Paul Flesner
Cole Freeman Bobby Moore Drew Martinez Jason Ellison
Tres Barrera Angel Flores Bruce Look Pedro Severino
Erick Mejia Lou Chiozza Rosell Herrera Matt Tolbert
Yadiel Hernandez Leon Wagner Jerry Mumphrey Joe Vitiello
Will Frizzell John Ellis Ken Harvey Cyle Hankerd
Darren Baker Mike Freeman Kean Wong Kevin Medrano
Lucius Fox Nathan Eaton Cesar Crespo Angelo Fermin
Adrián Sanchez Luis Ordaz Alexi Casilla Bob Johnson
Richard Urena Corey Jones Julio Linares Jim Jenkins
Drew Millas Jeff Tackett Ben Amaya Tim Blackwell
Jake Noll Tony Abreu Glenn Redmon Ozzie Virgil
David Dahl Frank Baker Luke Vasser George Hinshaw
DJ Peters Joe Gaetti Roger Kieschnick Jim Chamblee
Nick Banks Joe Mahoney Al Romero Jason Michaels
Alcides Escobar Jose Vizcaino Don Johnson Ozzie Virgil
Taylor Gushue Dusty Brown Danny Breeden Gene Lamont
Jackson Cluff Nick McIntyre Jake Wald Mendy Lopez 로페즈
Wilson Garcia Frank Schwindel Leslie Anderson Michael Aubrey
Leonel Valera Juan Bell P.J. Phillips Felipe Lopez
Andrew Young George Wilson Cliff Cook Dave Hudgens
Cody Wilson Kevin House Dorian Speed Juancito Martinez
Gilbert Lara Jared Reaves Kevin Rios Marty Foley
Maikel Franco Aurelio Rodriguez Ted Kazanski Gordon Beckham
Armond Upshaw Casio Grider Jeff Vincent Alex Requena
Tito Polo Greg Strickland Stantrel Smith Matt Lipka
Wilmer Perez Luis De La Cruz Kevin Garcia Jose Cotto
Brady Lindsly Juan Santos Jim Hibbs Jan Vazquez
Donovan Casey Justin Greene Sean Barker Randy Lavigne
Daniel Johnson John Skurla Rob Mackowiak Zach Borenstein
Jack Dunn Don Wallace Buck McNabb Junior Sosa
Justin Connell Kevin Koslofski Hiram Bocachica Brian Turang
Omar Meregildo Chris Johnston Kiel Roling Greg Biagini
Franklin Barreto Travis Dawkins Sean Coyle Tony Thomas
Trey Harris James Jedelsky Joe Moock Jim Martin
Yasel Antuna Lannie Carrier Abraham Nunez Rabbit Henry
Dee Strange-Gordon Willie Bloomquist Jose Vizcaino Emilio Bonifacio
Onix Vega Alfredo Gonzalez Rob Yelton Kevin Davidson
Jeremy De La Rosa Jimmy Arline Johnny Wilson Greg Burns
Drew Mendoza Jude Voltz Dave Jensen Joe Dusan

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Jake Alu .282 .338 .469 121 3.9 .232 .287 .371 82 1.2
Jeimer Candelario .269 .343 .483 126 3.5 .216 .289 .377 85 0.9
Keibert Ruiz .287 .348 .469 121 3.1 .236 .295 .363 82 1.0
Joey Meneses .289 .336 .513 131 3.5 .239 .281 .418 91 0.5
Alex Call .262 .351 .440 115 2.5 .212 .302 .338 78 0.5
Luis García .290 .324 .480 120 3.1 .238 .273 .373 78 0.1
Victor Robles .254 .325 .394 96 2.3 .204 .273 .302 60 0.3
Andrew Stevenson .284 .338 .449 115 2.7 .230 .285 .356 78 0.2
CJ Abrams .284 .327 .434 108 2.4 .232 .280 .341 72 0.2
Nelson Cruz .276 .354 .488 127 2.2 .223 .302 .382 91 0.1
Ildemaro Vargas .277 .322 .414 101 2.2 .228 .266 .330 66 0.2
Cesar Hernandez .272 .335 .391 99 2.2 .219 .284 .310 67 -0.2
Luke Voit .260 .349 .493 129 2.0 .211 .299 .390 92 -0.2
Robert Hassell III .256 .318 .392 96 2.1 .209 .269 .310 62 -0.2
Stone Garrett .260 .303 .487 113 2.2 .208 .251 .376 70 -0.4
Carter Kieboom .249 .347 .406 105 1.6 .198 .296 .312 68 -0.3
Lane Thomas .271 .341 .461 119 1.9 .220 .293 .364 82 -0.3
Israel Pineda .240 .291 .414 90 1.7 .185 .235 .315 51 -0.2
James Wood .262 .337 .443 114 1.6 .207 .280 .340 73 -0.1
Riley Adams .238 .330 .429 107 1.3 .183 .275 .321 65 -0.3
John Nogowski .254 .354 .370 100 1.4 .208 .302 .294 67 -0.4
Jecksson Flores .245 .315 .335 80 1.1 .192 .261 .260 46 -0.4
Cole Freeman .277 .329 .357 90 1.2 .225 .276 .287 57 -0.5
Tres Barrera .257 .325 .391 97 1.1 .197 .267 .297 57 -0.4
Erick Mejia .255 .316 .409 97 1.5 .205 .261 .318 61 -0.7
Yadiel Hernandez .282 .338 .464 117 1.1 .228 .282 .365 78 -0.7
Will Frizzell .270 .318 .498 121 0.7 .217 .264 .382 78 -0.3
Darren Baker .258 .306 .333 75 1.2 .205 .253 .263 45 -0.7
Lucius Fox .231 .308 .355 84 1.0 .182 .264 .271 50 -0.5
Adrián Sanchez .268 .311 .383 91 0.8 .216 .257 .303 55 -0.4
Richard Urena .259 .291 .387 84 0.9 .210 .240 .299 50 -0.6
Drew Millas .239 .324 .345 83 1.1 .179 .263 .256 46 -0.6
Jake Noll .279 .313 .439 105 1.2 .224 .259 .343 68 -0.9
David Dahl .267 .317 .433 106 1.0 .212 .262 .345 68 -0.8
DJ Peters .231 .304 .400 94 1.2 .179 .251 .295 51 -1.1
Nick Banks .244 .296 .398 90 1.0 .190 .242 .310 53 -0.8
Alcides Escobar .269 .317 .384 94 0.7 .212 .260 .297 55 -0.9
Taylor Gushue .238 .318 .393 95 0.7 .183 .260 .290 53 -0.8
Jackson Cluff .218 .284 .319 67 0.6 .164 .234 .241 33 -0.9
Wilson Garcia .274 .308 .456 108 1.1 .221 .254 .354 68 -1.2
Leonel Valera .233 .294 .406 91 1.2 .181 .242 .296 49 -1.5
Andrew Young .225 .314 .433 104 0.7 .172 .260 .322 60 -1.4
Cody Wilson .201 .262 .288 54 0.2 .147 .208 .208 17 -0.6
Gilbert Lara .229 .262 .341 66 0.3 .185 .217 .262 34 -1.1
Maikel Franco .255 .296 .415 94 0.7 .202 .243 .313 54 -1.3
Armond Upshaw .215 .289 .341 74 0.2 .163 .239 .254 38 -1.1
Tito Polo .238 .285 .356 77 0.1 .192 .238 .283 45 -1.1
Wilmer Perez .246 .287 .332 70 -0.2 .182 .223 .241 29 -0.7
Brady Lindsly .229 .288 .355 78 0.1 .163 .222 .252 33 -1.2
Donovan Casey .238 .289 .387 84 0.3 .188 .238 .301 48 -1.7
Daniel Johnson .245 .303 .425 97 0.5 .193 .248 .325 56 -1.6
Jack Dunn .244 .316 .317 77 0.1 .194 .263 .249 47 -1.6
Justin Connell .242 .313 .378 91 0.2 .193 .265 .291 56 -1.7
Omar Meregildo .225 .293 .396 89 0.1 .179 .242 .310 53 -1.8
Franklin Barreto .208 .281 .368 78 0.1 .157 .227 .269 37 -1.6
Trey Harris .257 .316 .374 89 0.0 .204 .263 .292 55 -1.6
Yasel Antuna .229 .307 .360 82 0.1 .178 .257 .271 47 -2.1
Dee Strange-Gordon .283 .314 .374 89 -0.4 .226 .259 .290 53 -1.7
Onix Vega .242 .310 .329 78 -0.6 .184 .256 .247 43 -1.9
Jeremy De La Rosa .230 .284 .367 78 -0.4 .185 .235 .282 46 -2.4
Drew Mendoza .207 .277 .317 63 -1.3 .163 .223 .239 29 -2.9

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Will Harris R 38 1 2 3.68 35 0 29.3 28 12 4 8 26
Stephen Strasburg R 34 7 6 3.74 18 18 110.7 98 46 13 35 109
Kyle Finnegan R 31 5 5 3.79 59 0 59.3 53 25 7 22 62
Victor Arano R 28 1 1 4.01 42 1 42.7 38 19 5 15 45
Jose A. Ferrer L 23 3 2 4.05 45 0 60.0 58 27 9 13 56
Carl Edwards Jr. R 31 4 4 4.10 58 0 59.3 54 27 7 23 57
Matt Cronin L 25 3 2 4.14 46 0 45.7 40 21 5 24 48
MacKenzie Gore L 24 4 5 4.17 20 18 86.3 80 40 10 38 90
Alex Troop L 26 6 6 4.20 27 14 98.7 99 46 14 27 86
Cole Henry R 23 4 4 4.20 24 22 79.3 70 37 10 29 81
Alberto Baldonado L 30 2 3 4.24 48 0 51.0 46 24 7 22 55
Cade Cavalli R 24 6 7 4.28 22 22 103.0 93 49 11 47 103
Zach Brzykcy R 23 5 5 4.32 46 0 58.3 49 28 8 29 69
Erasmo Ramirez R 33 3 3 4.35 45 6 78.7 79 38 11 21 64
Sean Doolittle L 36 2 3 4.35 45 0 41.3 42 20 7 12 39
Hunter Harvey R 28 2 3 4.44 36 4 48.7 47 24 8 16 50
Logan Verrett 베렛 R 33 6 7 4.45 19 17 97.0 105 48 13 19 65
Andres Machado R 30 1 1 4.46 55 0 66.7 65 33 9 27 54
Tanner Rainey R 30 2 3 4.46 39 0 38.3 31 19 6 21 49
Joe Ross R 30 5 7 4.47 22 16 92.7 89 46 12 30 86
Mason Thompson R 25 3 4 4.50 41 3 44.0 43 22 6 19 39
Curtis Taylor R 27 2 2 4.54 31 0 39.7 37 20 5 17 37
Francisco Perez L 25 2 2 4.58 46 0 53.0 46 27 7 33 61
Josiah Gray R 25 6 8 4.60 24 24 129.0 116 66 23 48 132
Jordan Weems R 30 2 3 4.63 52 0 58.3 54 30 8 26 60
Jake Irvin R 26 2 2 4.67 24 24 96.3 95 50 14 31 78
Jake McGee L 36 1 2 4.70 42 0 38.3 39 20 7 10 31
Steve Cishek R 37 2 2 4.72 59 0 55.3 51 29 8 26 52
Tommy Romero R 25 6 8 4.75 27 17 91.0 92 48 15 37 79
Patrick Murphy R 28 3 3 4.76 37 7 62.3 60 33 8 31 59
Reed Garrett R 30 3 4 4.83 45 0 50.3 52 27 6 25 43
Juan Minaya R 32 3 4 4.86 38 1 53.7 52 29 7 26 47
Anibal Sanchez R 39 5 7 4.94 19 19 93.0 95 51 15 40 65
Evan Lee L 26 2 4 5.01 19 17 59.3 58 33 9 33 58
Tim Cate L 25 5 7 5.01 21 19 93.3 102 52 14 36 66
Franklyn Kilome R 28 5 8 5.06 18 14 74.7 73 42 10 39 63
Cory Abbott R 27 4 6 5.09 24 18 92.0 91 52 17 45 89
Joan Adon R 24 6 9 5.10 22 22 102.3 104 58 14 46 87
Patrick Corbin L 33 8 12 5.11 26 26 137.3 154 78 25 48 117
Jefry Rodriguez R 29 2 2 5.12 23 11 63.3 64 36 9 34 52
Carson Teel L 27 3 4 5.12 30 8 70.3 78 40 12 24 50
Tyler Clippard R 38 1 2 5.12 35 1 38.7 36 22 7 17 37
Hobie Harris R 30 2 4 5.13 43 0 40.3 38 23 7 22 42
Ronald Herrera R 28 5 7 5.16 21 20 103.0 115 59 17 32 69
Reid Schaller R 26 3 6 5.18 34 0 40.0 40 23 5 23 33
Connor Sadzeck R 31 2 3 5.18 37 0 41.7 39 24 6 22 40
Erick Fedde R 30 6 9 5.20 24 22 110.7 119 64 18 46 86
Paolo Espino R 36 3 4 5.25 28 14 82.3 93 48 17 21 66
Jackson Tetreault R 27 4 7 5.35 16 16 77.3 86 46 13 34 52
Luis Avilan L 33 1 2 5.40 31 0 28.3 28 17 4 16 25
Francys Peguero R 27 3 4 5.44 29 1 48.0 50 29 8 22 36
Matt Brill R 28 2 3 5.44 40 0 41.3 41 25 6 28 36
Steven Fuentes R 26 3 7 5.47 23 12 74.0 80 45 10 38 50
Edgar Garcia R 26 1 3 5.49 37 0 41.0 41 25 7 25 34
Richard Guasch R 25 3 6 5.55 23 9 58.3 56 36 9 37 57
Luis Reyes R 28 4 9 5.70 23 18 96.3 103 61 15 57 71
Andrew Lee R 29 2 4 5.76 28 5 59.3 62 38 11 35 52
Zack Burdi R 28 1 1 5.87 20 1 23.0 23 15 5 14 23
Gerardo Carrillo R 24 3 6 5.93 22 16 71.3 71 47 11 41 60
Garvin Alston L 26 2 3 6.00 27 0 36.0 39 24 7 19 27
Malvin Pena R 26 2 4 6.45 26 5 53.0 60 38 13 24 41

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Will Harris 29.3 8.0 2.5 1.2 6.5% 21.1% .286 111 3.97 90 0.3
Stephen Strasburg 110.7 8.9 2.8 1.1 7.6% 23.6% .283 109 3.79 92 2.0
Kyle Finnegan 59.3 9.4 3.3 1.1 8.7% 24.4% .291 108 3.76 93 0.6
Victor Arano 42.7 9.5 3.2 1.1 8.2% 24.6% .292 102 3.83 98 0.4
Jose A. Ferrer 60.0 8.4 2.0 1.4 5.2% 22.4% .290 101 4.04 99 0.3
Carl Edwards Jr. 59.3 8.6 3.5 1.1 9.0% 22.4% .287 100 3.98 100 0.4
Matt Cronin 45.7 9.5 4.7 1.0 12.0% 24.0% .289 99 4.12 101 0.2
MacKenzie Gore 86.3 9.4 4.0 1.0 10.1% 23.9% .300 98 4.03 102 1.2
Alex Troop 98.7 7.8 2.5 1.3 6.4% 20.5% .295 97 4.17 103 1.3
Cole Henry 79.3 9.2 3.3 1.1 8.7% 24.2% .283 97 4.11 103 1.1
Alberto Baldonado 51.0 9.7 3.9 1.2 10.0% 24.9% .291 96 4.13 104 0.2
Cade Cavalli 103.0 9.0 4.1 1.0 10.5% 23.1% .292 95 4.14 105 1.3
Zach Brzykcy 58.3 10.6 4.5 1.2 11.5% 27.3% .287 94 4.32 106 0.2
Erasmo Ramirez 78.7 7.3 2.4 1.3 6.3% 19.2% .291 94 4.30 107 0.5
Sean Doolittle 41.3 8.5 2.6 1.5 6.8% 22.2% .299 94 4.41 107 0.1
Hunter Harvey 48.7 9.2 3.0 1.5 7.7% 24.0% .295 92 4.41 109 0.3
Logan Verrett 97.0 6.0 1.8 1.2 4.6% 15.9% .297 92 4.27 109 1.1
Andres Machado 66.7 7.3 3.6 1.2 9.3% 18.6% .284 92 4.73 109 0.1
Tanner Rainey 38.3 11.5 4.9 1.4 12.5% 29.2% .281 91 4.43 109 0.1
Joe Ross 92.7 8.4 2.9 1.2 7.7% 21.9% .294 91 4.18 109 1.0
Mason Thompson 44.0 8.0 3.9 1.2 9.8% 20.1% .291 91 4.65 110 0.2
Curtis Taylor 39.7 8.4 3.9 1.1 9.9% 21.5% .288 90 4.44 111 0.0
Francisco Perez 53.0 10.4 5.6 1.2 13.8% 25.5% .291 89 4.55 112 0.0
Josiah Gray 129.0 9.2 3.3 1.6 8.8% 24.1% .274 89 4.68 113 1.2
Jordan Weems 58.3 9.3 4.0 1.2 10.2% 23.4% .293 88 4.32 113 0.0
Jake Irvin 96.3 7.3 2.9 1.3 7.5% 18.9% .284 87 4.67 114 0.8
Jake McGee 38.3 7.3 2.3 1.6 6.2% 19.3% .283 87 4.77 115 -0.1
Steve Cishek 55.3 8.5 4.2 1.3 10.7% 21.5% .281 87 4.94 116 -0.1
Tommy Romero 91.0 7.8 3.7 1.5 9.3% 19.8% .292 86 4.85 116 0.7
Patrick Murphy 62.3 8.5 4.5 1.2 11.2% 21.2% .295 86 4.61 117 0.3
Reed Garrett 50.3 7.7 4.5 1.1 11.0% 18.9% .307 85 4.60 118 -0.1
Juan Minaya 53.7 7.9 4.4 1.2 10.7% 19.4% .290 84 4.94 119 -0.1
Anibal Sanchez 93.0 6.3 3.9 1.5 9.8% 15.9% .279 83 5.24 121 0.5
Evan Lee 59.3 8.8 5.0 1.4 12.4% 21.7% .297 82 5.09 123 0.3
Tim Cate 93.3 6.4 3.5 1.4 8.6% 15.8% .298 81 4.94 123 0.5
Franklyn Kilome 74.7 7.6 4.7 1.2 11.6% 18.8% .288 81 5.10 124 0.3
Cory Abbott 92.0 8.7 4.4 1.7 11.0% 21.7% .290 80 5.22 125 0.3
Joan Adon 102.3 7.7 4.0 1.2 10.0% 18.9% .297 80 4.81 125 0.5
Patrick Corbin 137.3 7.7 3.1 1.6 7.9% 19.3% .312 80 4.93 125 0.6
Jefry Rodriguez 63.3 7.4 4.8 1.3 11.8% 18.0% .293 80 5.11 125 0.2
Carson Teel 70.3 6.4 3.1 1.5 7.7% 16.1% .297 80 5.02 125 0.1
Tyler Clippard 38.7 8.6 4.0 1.6 10.1% 22.0% .276 80 5.22 125 -0.2
Hobie Harris 40.3 9.4 4.9 1.6 12.1% 23.1% .290 80 5.11 126 -0.3
Ronald Herrera 103.0 6.0 2.8 1.5 7.1% 15.2% .297 79 5.07 126 0.4
Reid Schaller 40.0 7.4 5.2 1.1 12.6% 18.0% .294 79 4.93 127 -0.2
Connor Sadzeck 41.7 8.6 4.8 1.3 11.6% 21.1% .287 79 5.19 127 -0.3
Erick Fedde 110.7 7.0 3.7 1.5 9.3% 17.5% .298 78 5.01 128 0.3
Paolo Espino 82.3 7.2 2.3 1.9 5.9% 18.5% .303 78 5.07 129 0.1
Jackson Tetreault 77.3 6.1 4.0 1.5 9.7% 14.9% .296 76 5.43 131 0.1
Luis Avilan 28.3 7.9 5.1 1.3 12.4% 19.4% .293 76 5.24 132 -0.2
Francys Peguero 48.0 6.8 4.1 1.5 10.2% 16.7% .288 75 5.38 133 -0.4
Matt Brill 41.3 7.8 6.1 1.3 14.2% 18.3% .292 75 5.69 133 -0.5
Steven Fuentes 74.0 6.1 4.6 1.2 11.2% 14.7% .297 75 5.46 134 -0.1
Edgar Garcia 41.0 7.5 5.5 1.5 13.1% 17.8% .283 74 5.69 134 -0.4
Richard Guasch 58.3 8.8 5.7 1.4 13.6% 21.0% .292 73 5.52 136 -0.2
Luis Reyes 96.3 6.6 5.3 1.4 12.7% 15.8% .294 72 5.73 140 -0.3
Andrew Lee 59.3 7.9 5.3 1.7 12.6% 18.8% .295 71 5.73 141 -0.4
Zack Burdi 23.0 9.0 5.5 2.0 13.1% 21.5% .290 70 6.07 144 -0.3
Gerardo Carrillo 71.3 7.6 5.2 1.4 12.5% 18.2% .287 69 5.83 145 -0.4
Garvin Alston 36.0 6.8 4.8 1.8 11.5% 16.4% .291 68 6.10 147 -0.6
Malvin Pena 53.0 7.0 4.1 2.2 10.0% 17.0% .292 63 6.49 158 -0.8

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Will Harris Ellis Kinder Dutch Leonard Jonathan Papelbon 0.5 -0.1 2.91 5.05
Stephen Strasburg Nels Potter George Uhle Joe Dobson 2.7 1.3 3.22 4.34
Kyle Finnegan Mike Hartley Pedro Báez Bryan Shaw 1.4 -0.1 3.00 4.75
Victor Arano Tommy Toms Santos Hernandez Marco Diaz 0.7 -0.1 3.27 5.02
Jose A. Ferrer Dale Reis Jimmy Reyes Jim Goodwin 0.9 -0.3 3.23 5.05
Carl Edwards Jr. Bryan Shaw Aaron Heilman Mike Fornieles 1.0 -0.2 3.37 4.82
Matt Cronin Randy Choate Royce Ring Joel McKeon 0.6 -0.2 3.45 4.91
MacKenzie Gore Darren Burroughs Edward Dick Skip Pitlock 1.8 0.5 3.61 4.77
Alex Troop Darrell May Paul Ah Yat Mike McCormick 2.1 0.5 3.65 4.84
Cole Henry Steve Finch Chris Reinike Dennis Musgraves 1.7 0.4 3.57 5.03
Alberto Baldonado Tommy Hottovy Chuck James Buddy Baumann 0.7 -0.4 3.41 5.33
Cade Cavalli Charlie Lea Jack Morris Terry Felton 2.0 0.5 3.78 4.96
Zach Brzykcy Joey Krehbiel Kip Young Tony Dougherty 0.6 -0.5 3.71 5.39
Erasmo Ramirez Steve Hargan Willie Fraser Rene Arocha 1.1 -0.1 3.64 5.11
Sean Doolittle Diomedes Olivo Joe Grzenda Ed Vosberg 0.5 -0.4 3.43 5.89
Hunter Harvey Jay Tessmer Luis DeLeon Tom Gorman 0.7 -0.2 3.66 5.64
Logan Verrett Ben Johnson Steve Fireovid Tim Kester 1.7 0.5 3.94 5.02
Andres Machado Alan Benes Marcus Walden Adam Warren 0.5 -0.4 3.84 5.22
Tanner Rainey Oscar Henriquez 엔리케스 Jack Meyer Dwayne Henry 0.6 -0.5 3.43 5.55
Joe Ross Ray Herbert Paul Wilson Bryan Bullington 1.6 0.3 3.92 5.19
Mason Thompson Dan Bennett Chris George Rich Surhoff 0.5 -0.2 3.90 5.05
Curtis Taylor Brian Drahman Rich Surhoff George Pfeiffer 0.3 -0.3 3.84 5.31
Francisco Perez Jim Strickland Kevin Chapman Kim Seaman 0.5 -0.4 3.82 5.40
Josiah Gray Rob Bell Jharel Cotton Ben McDonald 2.2 0.1 4.06 5.25
Jordan Weems Frank Wills Paul Swingle Trey McNutt 0.5 -0.6 3.86 5.55
Jake Irvin Chandler Shepherd Daniel McCutchen Cesar Valdez 1.4 0.2 4.17 5.25
Jake McGee Tony Watson Al Brazle Alan Embree 0.3 -0.5 3.98 5.94
Steve Cishek David Weathers Ted Abernathy Hector Carrasco 0.5 -0.7 3.70 6.18
Tommy Romero Jim Hunter Skip Lockwood Paul Stewart 1.2 0.0 4.27 5.42
Patrick Murphy Greg Resz Alex Wilson Willie Eyre 0.8 -0.3 4.12 5.62
Reed Garrett John Pawlowski Bob Gebhard Ryan Reid 0.3 -0.6 4.10 5.65
Juan Minaya Mike Buddie George Culver Mike Walker 0.4 -0.6 4.20 5.90
Anibal Sanchez Ray Starr Jim Palmer Rip Sewell 1.0 -0.2 4.42 5.75
Evan Lee Bruce Poole Jeff Chandler Bennett Parry 0.6 -0.3 4.48 5.81
Tim Cate Anthony Fernandez Chris Cumberland Rich Rundles 0.9 -0.2 4.60 5.69
Franklyn Kilome Don Carrithers Dave Moore Dave May 0.9 -0.3 4.48 5.77
Cory Abbott Matt Kinney Jack Lutz Rich Yett 1.0 -0.4 4.52 5.78
Joan Adon Tony Mack Ed Merritt Bryan Clutterbuck 1.1 -0.2 4.63 5.68
Patrick Corbin Al Sima Charlie Leibrandt Johnny Podres 1.6 -0.5 4.44 5.92
Jefry Rodriguez Mike Strahler Bob Zick Don Erickson 0.6 -0.3 4.58 5.76
Carson Teel Virgil Conley Tom Harlan Larry Jaster 0.6 -0.4 4.56 5.83
Tyler Clippard Steve Reed Jim Corsi Joe Heving 0.2 -0.6 3.94 7.03
Hobie Harris Chad Harville Jonah Bayliss Charlie Sullivan 0.1 -0.7 4.27 6.07
Ronald Herrera Hy Cohen Nick Green Jake Paulson 1.0 -0.2 4.63 5.69
Reid Schaller Rich Grife Mike Shields Manuel Rodriguez 0.1 -0.6 4.55 6.00
Connor Sadzeck Ramon Ramirez Gary Waslewski Matt Karchner 0.2 -0.7 4.38 6.27
Erick Fedde John Brownell Tom Hurd Roberto Hernandez 1.0 -0.5 4.66 5.85
Paolo Espino Danny Darwin Willie Blair Gerry Staley 0.6 -0.5 4.56 6.19
Jackson Tetreault Steve Hirschfeld Bob Radovich Matt Kniginyzky 0.6 -0.5 4.89 5.97
Luis Avilan Dave Rucker Sean Fesh Willard Hunter 0.1 -0.5 4.59 6.58
Francys Peguero Kevin Fynan Cecilio Garibaldi Cole Wiper 0.0 -0.8 4.86 6.21
Matt Brill David Gourieux Rick Greene Brian Maxcy -0.1 -0.9 4.73 6.30
Steven Fuentes Jackie Davidson Raul Carrillo Roger Williams 0.3 -0.7 5.01 6.13
Edgar Garcia Dick Balderson Kelvin Vasquez Jack Lazorko -0.1 -0.8 4.92 6.31
Richard Guasch Pat Light Scott Schanz Jeff Stember 0.3 -0.7 4.92 6.30
Luis Reyes Carlos Chantres Ben Fritz Harvey Cohen 0.3 -1.0 5.18 6.40
Andrew Lee Johnny Hunter Brandon Culp R.J. Seidel 0.1 -1.1 5.00 6.85
Zack Burdi Gary Wex Mike Heinen Joseph Jeran -0.1 -0.6 5.11 7.06
Gerardo Carrillo Joan Baez Jeff Groves Chris Gardner 0.1 -0.9 5.38 6.60
Garvin Alston Albert Minnis Steven Calicutt Adam Milburn -0.3 -1.0 5.35 6.99
Malvin Pena Luis Perez Alex Solano Tyler Keele -0.4 -1.3 5.82 7.27

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

43 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
jasonl
2 months ago

Pretty grim

Mean Mr. Mustard
2 months ago
Reply to  jasonl

Those are the exact words that came to mind for me.

palutz44member
2 months ago
Reply to  jasonl

It’s ok, after all we have Jake Alu and Wil Harris