2023 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and today’s teams is the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

The story of the origin of the name of Cincinnati is an interesting one. Many cultures have stories of semi-mythical legend involving historical rulers attaining great feats of martial valor or living absurdly long lives. But the tale of Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus, counsel for Rome in 460 BC and briefly dictator on two occasions, is a rare one in that it’s a tale surrounding the virtue of civic duty. While the reality was far more complicated, Cincinnatus is not famous so much for vanquishing his foes but for, with the strength of the Republic on his back, voluntarily giving up power and returning to his farm, twice, having done his duty to the Republic. The later Roman Republic was not so lucky; contrast the behavior of Cincinnatus with that of Lucius Cornelius Sulla Felix, known in history as Sulla, who, after victory at the Battle of the Colline Gate over the Marians, seized… what? Oh, right. I’m going to have to talk about this offense, aren’t I?

If owners have any civic duty owed to the cities that pay for their stadiums, not much of that has been displayed by Reds ownership over the last 18 months or so. Coming off an 83–79 season in which Cincinnati was in wild-card contention at the deadline and with most of the core of the roster intact, the team folded its hand extremely quickly, trading most players with significant trade value and slashing the budget by around $50 million, despite playing in a weak division without any truly aggressive teams or profligate spenders. The team shed 13 points of wRC+, dropping from fourth in the NL in runs scored to 11th. To find a season more than a couple points worse than that combined wRC+ of 84, you have to go back to the early 1950s.

There aren’t really any bright spots in the offense, just OK ones. Noelvi Marte gets a very promising projection over the long-term (and how about that top comp!), and both Spencer Steer and Matt McLain get surprisingly optimistic projections that see them as real league-average players. Jonathan India gets sort of a comeback-ish season, and Tyler Stephenson can be a three-win player if he stays healthy and the Reds turn his off-days into DH days. Not a single position player gets 4 WAR at their 90th-percentile projection, though there’s still a good chance that someone does hit that mark because, well, that’s how probability works. The starting outfield basically looks a B-squad spring training roster.

Now, there are some reasons for optimism long term. There’s a solid stable of hitters with long-term upside that probably won’t come close to hitting it in 2022. In a lot of sims, Christian Encarnacion-Strand puts up some huge power numbers, and Elly De La Cruz becomes Alfonso Soriano. And, in something that’s good for fans since the team’s not going to be ambitious in free agency, all the most interesting players are young and cost-controlled for a very long time. It’s a long way from corn kernels to cornbread, and hopefully by the time this team’s ready to compete, fans are blessed with a new owner that’s up to the challenge of maintaining a quality contender in the Queen City. Until then, it’s going to be painful.

I do hope Joey Votto has one last comeback in him. I am no more bullish than ZiPS is.

Pitchers

Well, we got the bad news out of the way first, so let’s move onto the happier part of the roster, and I don’t mean that in the “silver lining” sense. Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene both project as starters approaching borderline ace status with a bit of fortune in the health and performance department. ZiPS is particularly excited about Greene’s long-term upside; it had him as one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball in terms of home run rate and, like Andrew Heaney last year and Corbin Burnes before that, sees him slashing that figure to much more palatable levels. Graham Ashcraft doesn’t project as having anywhere near the upside of the first two starters, but ZiPS thinks he’s a fairly safe mid-rotation starter who ought to be a good innings-eater for a long time. Those guys don’t get nine-figure contracts, but they still do quite well.

Since the team’s going to be… not good, I’d like to see the Reds get creative with the back of the rotation. Give Luis Cessa and Tejay Antone every opportunity to stick in the rotation (health permitting). Reiver Sanmartin’s stuff feels more crafty lefty than explosive reliever, so I’d like to see him get an opportunity to be a solid no. 3/4 starter just as Ashcraft did. An injury to Greene or Lodolo could sink this unit very quickly, but for now, this is not the team’s problem.

Neither, really, is the bullpen. ZiPS is still skeptical about Alexis Díaz’s command, but even with a rather meh walk rate, he projects as a perfectly cromulent reliever, if not with an ERA anywhere near his rookie number. There aren’t a lot of high notes in the pen, though I note for amusement that ZiPS thinks the Reds DFA’d one of their best relievers, Art Warren, a few weeks ago. What they have a lot of is boring adequacy, and without a lot of wins to protect, a boring middling bullpen won’t be what keeps them out of contention. The one thing I’d like them to do is pick up any flawed, live arm they can get their hands on and, in a season in which bullpen performance doesn’t matter all that much, see who they can get a pleasant surprise out of. That’s basically what the Orioles did, and it worked out marvelously, netting them Félix Bautista, Cionel Pérez, and the traded Jorge López.

The pitching ought to keep the Reds from losing 100 games, but there’s just not enough short-term upside in this offense that one can squint and make this team a contender. But, hey, if a miracle were likely, it wouldn’t be a miracle, would it?

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Spencer Steer R 25 3B 540 479 74 118 25 2 20 80 47 120 3 3
Matt McLain R 23 SS 417 362 48 84 18 4 13 52 47 133 12 2
Noelvi Marte R 21 SS 539 485 67 129 21 1 16 68 45 139 11 6
Tyler Stephenson R 26 C 343 305 43 80 16 0 10 46 28 76 1 1
Jonathan India R 26 2B 537 467 70 118 23 3 14 58 49 122 6 4
TJ Friedl L 27 CF 473 413 61 104 17 6 12 59 42 88 11 4
Christian Encarnacion-Strand R 23 3B 553 510 65 130 27 4 27 96 32 173 4 1
Jake Fraley L 28 LF 361 312 50 78 15 1 14 51 42 89 9 3
Nick Solak R 28 LF 492 437 65 118 21 1 15 59 41 104 7 3
Stuart Fairchild R 27 RF 361 322 43 77 16 2 13 49 28 102 4 3
Edwin Arroyo B 19 SS 517 473 73 113 19 7 14 73 32 154 12 4
Elly de la Cruz B 21 SS 493 465 61 117 23 7 16 68 26 157 20 5
Donovan Solano R 35 1B 321 293 30 84 17 0 6 32 19 64 0 1
Luke Maile R 32 C 216 191 23 47 12 0 4 22 21 62 1 1
Joey Votto L 39 1B 420 360 47 84 19 1 16 46 53 105 1 1
Allan Cerda R 23 CF 472 409 56 83 21 2 18 69 49 178 2 4
Jose Torres R 23 SS 399 372 43 84 12 2 10 43 19 123 12 3
Aristides Aquino R 29 RF 381 344 45 77 15 1 20 53 31 131 4 3
Alejo Lopez B 27 2B 418 380 48 103 17 1 4 42 29 57 5 2
Mike Moustakas L 34 1B 337 300 38 72 18 0 13 38 29 77 2 1
Cristian Santana R 26 3B 455 428 44 116 21 0 9 52 20 116 0 2
Francisco Urbaez R 25 2B 286 260 32 66 14 1 3 32 22 53 1 1
Juniel Querecuto B 30 SS 403 378 44 95 17 3 9 43 22 86 6 3
Kevin Newman R 29 2B 455 423 46 114 20 2 6 39 24 57 8 3
Michael Siani L 23 CF 550 496 67 115 17 5 9 55 45 128 23 9
Max Schrock L 28 2B 242 225 29 60 12 1 5 27 15 46 2 1
Nick Senzel R 28 CF 390 354 48 88 17 2 7 29 30 75 8 5
Robbie Tenerowicz R 28 1B 305 267 34 62 11 1 8 47 23 83 2 3
Colin Moran L 30 1B 383 344 37 88 17 0 13 56 33 102 0 1
Matt Reynolds R 32 2B 343 303 35 73 16 2 5 34 36 97 4 1
Ronnie Dawson L 28 LF 439 389 55 88 20 1 10 54 38 128 8 5
Jose Barrero R 25 SS 452 416 49 91 19 1 12 55 24 153 8 3
Lorenzo Cedrola R 25 CF 489 460 56 121 18 5 5 56 14 82 9 6
Quincy McAfee R 25 3B 362 319 39 69 14 1 6 42 31 98 2 3
Ivan Johnson B 24 2B 269 249 29 54 12 2 6 31 17 91 4 2
Daniel Vellojin L 23 C 307 268 32 56 11 1 7 30 35 91 2 2
Steven Leyton R 24 2B 337 319 41 73 17 3 7 41 9 79 3 1
Jay Allen II R 20 CF 379 330 54 73 12 3 4 45 30 105 21 7
Leonardo Rivas B 25 2B 346 310 36 68 11 2 4 32 32 92 8 3
Eric Yang R 25 C 235 204 21 42 9 0 3 28 20 70 1 1
Chuckie Robinson R 28 C 301 278 28 63 11 1 7 34 17 82 3 1
Matheu Nelson R 24 C 314 285 32 53 11 2 6 39 18 119 0 1
Isiah Gilliam B 26 DH 436 392 46 88 20 2 14 56 38 166 9 4
Albert Almora Jr. R 29 RF 338 315 38 77 14 1 7 33 18 61 3 3
James Free B 25 C 239 221 21 49 10 0 6 25 14 70 0 1
Stephen Piscotty R 32 RF 297 272 30 65 11 0 11 37 20 87 2 1
Nicholas Northcut R 24 3B 421 392 48 83 20 1 19 58 23 161 0 1
Austin Romine R 34 C 179 170 17 39 7 0 4 18 7 54 0 1
Drew Mount L 27 RF 228 213 24 48 6 2 5 26 10 76 4 3
Tyler Callihan L 23 2B 329 307 35 72 15 3 5 32 17 85 7 2
TJ Hopkins R 26 LF 448 407 49 93 17 3 13 54 31 144 4 2
Joe Deluca B 27 C 140 122 12 18 3 0 4 21 11 74 0 1
Jacob Hurtubise L 25 RF 302 259 41 60 7 2 1 37 28 69 13 4
Alex McGarry L 25 1B 414 391 42 88 19 3 17 56 19 139 6 2
Chris Okey R 28 C 180 165 20 36 6 2 4 17 13 61 0 1
Michael De León B 26 1B 395 370 34 88 16 0 5 37 21 92 0 1
Brian Rey R 25 RF 292 268 28 66 11 1 5 40 11 54 2 2
Nick Quintana R 25 3B 415 370 43 76 19 0 8 42 38 120 2 2
Miguel Hernandez R 24 SS 360 339 33 79 14 1 3 30 17 92 2 1
Rece Hinds R 22 RF 315 292 35 56 9 2 11 41 17 138 6 5
Austin Hendrick L 22 RF 425 382 43 72 19 0 15 57 34 189 7 3
Michel Triana L 23 1B 390 356 40 72 13 4 9 45 22 144 5 3
Justice Thompson R 22 LF 369 329 35 58 10 1 6 38 35 152 10 5
Quin Cotton R 25 LF 306 284 25 55 11 1 5 28 18 118 6 4
Garrett Wolforth B 25 1B 316 291 30 53 12 2 8 33 20 137 1 1

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Spencer Steer 540 .246 .324 .432 98 .186 .289 2 1.9 .327
Matt McLain 417 .232 .329 .412 94 .180 .329 0 1.8 .323
Noelvi Marte 539 .266 .336 .412 97 .146 .342 -7 1.5 .326
Tyler Stephenson 343 .262 .332 .413 96 .151 .320 0 1.5 .325
Jonathan India 537 .253 .345 .405 97 .152 .314 -7 1.3 .329
TJ Friedl 473 .252 .334 .409 95 .157 .294 -3 1.2 .324
Christian Encarnacion-Strand 553 .255 .309 .482 105 .227 .332 -11 1.2 .336
Jake Fraley 361 .250 .346 .439 106 .189 .306 0 1.1 .341
Nick Solak 492 .270 .344 .426 102 .156 .324 -2 1.1 .336
Stuart Fairchild 361 .239 .316 .422 93 .183 .309 6 1.0 .319
Edwin Arroyo 517 .239 .298 .397 82 .159 .325 -2 1.0 .301
Elly de la Cruz 493 .252 .292 .434 89 .183 .346 -6 1.0 .310
Donovan Solano 321 .287 .340 .406 96 .119 .350 6 0.9 .324
Luke Maile 216 .246 .329 .372 85 .126 .344 1 0.7 .310
Joey Votto 420 .233 .338 .425 100 .192 .285 -1 0.7 .332
Allan Cerda 472 .203 .305 .396 84 .193 .305 -1 0.6 .308
Jose Torres 399 .226 .266 .349 61 .124 .310 8 0.6 .266
Aristides Aquino 381 .224 .294 .448 92 .224 .295 2 0.6 .317
Alejo Lopez 418 .271 .330 .353 81 .082 .310 -1 0.5 .302
Mike Moustakas 337 .240 .315 .430 94 .190 .281 2 0.5 .321
Cristian Santana 455 .271 .305 .383 81 .112 .353 0 0.4 .299
Francisco Urbaez 286 .254 .322 .350 78 .096 .309 1 0.4 .299
Juniel Querecuto 403 .251 .293 .384 77 .132 .304 -2 0.4 .292
Kevin Newman 455 .270 .312 .369 79 .099 .300 -2 0.3 .297
Michael Siani 550 .232 .302 .341 70 .109 .295 1 0.2 .285
Max Schrock 242 .267 .314 .396 86 .129 .316 -3 0.2 .307
Nick Senzel 390 .249 .311 .367 79 .119 .298 -2 0.2 .298
Robbie Tenerowicz 305 .232 .318 .371 82 .139 .307 4 0.2 .305
Colin Moran 383 .256 .321 .419 94 .163 .328 -2 0.1 .320
Matt Reynolds 343 .241 .324 .356 80 .116 .338 -5 0.1 .302
Ronnie Dawson 439 .226 .308 .360 76 .134 .311 4 0.1 .295
Jose Barrero 452 .219 .274 .356 65 .137 .315 0 0.1 .275
Lorenzo Cedrola 489 .263 .298 .357 72 .093 .311 1 0.1 .286
Quincy McAfee 362 .216 .301 .323 65 .107 .293 3 0.1 .280
Ivan Johnson 269 .217 .275 .353 65 .137 .316 2 0.0 .275
Daniel Vellojin 307 .209 .304 .336 69 .127 .288 -4 0.0 .286
Steven Leyton 337 .229 .262 .367 64 .138 .283 3 0.0 .271
Jay Allen II 379 .221 .309 .312 65 .091 .312 -1 -0.1 .281
Leonardo Rivas 346 .219 .296 .306 60 .087 .299 2 -0.1 .271
Eric Yang 235 .206 .303 .294 59 .088 .298 -2 -0.1 .273
Chuckie Robinson 301 .227 .280 .349 65 .122 .296 -4 -0.2 .276
Matheu Nelson 314 .186 .256 .302 47 .116 .294 4 -0.2 .249
Isiah Gilliam 436 .224 .298 .393 81 .168 .349 0 -0.2 .301
Albert Almora Jr. 338 .244 .288 .362 70 .117 .283 4 -0.3 .282
James Free 239 .222 .272 .348 63 .127 .297 -3 -0.3 .271
Stephen Piscotty 297 .239 .296 .401 82 .162 .310 -2 -0.3 .301
Nicholas Northcut 421 .212 .261 .413 74 .202 .302 -5 -0.4 .289
Austin Romine 179 .229 .260 .341 57 .112 .313 -2 -0.4 .262
Drew Mount 228 .225 .272 .343 61 .117 .326 3 -0.4 .269
Tyler Callihan 329 .235 .277 .352 65 .117 .309 -2 -0.4 .274
TJ Hopkins 448 .229 .289 .381 75 .152 .320 0 -0.4 .291
Joe Deluca 140 .148 .245 .270 36 .123 .318 0 -0.4 .235
Jacob Hurtubise 302 .232 .333 .286 66 .054 .312 -2 -0.5 .286
Alex McGarry 414 .225 .266 .419 77 .194 .302 0 -0.5 .293
Chris Okey 180 .218 .278 .352 65 .133 .320 -5 -0.5 .273
Michael De León 395 .238 .281 .322 59 .084 .304 9 -0.6 .265
Brian Rey 292 .246 .298 .351 71 .104 .292 -1 -0.6 .285
Nick Quintana 415 .205 .285 .322 60 .116 .281 -1 -0.6 .271
Miguel Hernandez 360 .233 .270 .307 52 .074 .311 -3 -0.9 .254
Rece Hinds 315 .192 .248 .349 55 .158 .315 2 -0.9 .260
Austin Hendrick 425 .188 .266 .356 62 .168 .320 -2 -1.2 .272
Michel Triana 390 .202 .262 .337 57 .135 .310 1 -1.4 .263
Justice Thompson 369 .176 .263 .267 41 .091 .304 4 -1.4 .242
Quin Cotton 306 .194 .246 .292 42 .099 .311 0 -1.6 .238
Garrett Wolforth 316 .182 .241 .320 47 .137 .308 0 -1.6 .245

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Spencer Steer Don Money Torey Lovullo Keith Lockhart
Matt McLain Mike Miley Clyde Mashore Geronimo Pena
Noelvi Marte Trea Turner Tony Giarratano Rosell Herrera
Tyler Stephenson John Ramos Tim Talton Clint Courtney
Jonathan India Mark Ellis Scott Sizemore Don Wert
TJ Friedl Eddie Milner Derrel Thomas Sam Fuld
Christian Encarnacion-Strand Mickey Klutts Austin Riley Doug Rader
Jake Fraley Jim Gosger Sandy Amoros Michael Saunders
Nick Solak Pat Duncan Andy Dirks Al Cowens
Stuart Fairchild Charlie Spikes Rich Butler Carmelo Castillo
Edwin Arroyo Adalberto Mondesi Derrel Thomas Alfredo Griffin
Elly de la Cruz Tito Fuentes Bryan Mejia Brayan Rocchio
Donovan Solano Hal Morris Eddie Waitkus Willie McGee
Luke Maile Eric Christopherson Curt Casali Merritt Ranew
Joey Votto Chris Chambliss Kevin Millar Dan Johnson
Allan Cerda Brett Eibner Don Young Gene Dotson
Jose Torres Jerry Gil Eddie Rogers Juan Ciriaco
Aristides Aquino Ken Gerhart Jim Riggleman John Rabb
Alejo Lopez Rey Sanchez Matt Galante Christian Colon
Mike Moustakas Joe Frazier Johnny Callison Gordy Coleman
Cristian Santana Garrett Weber Rick Ladjevich Brandon Tierney
Francisco Urbaez Johnny O’Brien Edward Cervantes Eddie Cornejo
Juniel Querecuto Michael Martinez Cristian Guzman Brad Boyer
Kevin Newman Aaron Miles Rennie Stennett Billy DeMars
Michael Siani Chris Frey Ben Copeland Mike Mesh
Max Schrock Ever Magallanes Bob Heise Ramon Martinez
Nick Senzel Jim Wohlford Lee Graham Chuck Carr
Robbie Tenerowicz Scott Savastano Jonathan Mota Max Oliveras
Colin Moran John Harris Bill Davis Dick Nen
Matt Reynolds Steven Tolleson Eddy Alvarez Ron Clark
Ronnie Dawson William McGuckin Matt den Dekker Jordan Czarniecki
Jose Barrero Benji Gil Tim Olson Haley Young
Lorenzo Cedrola Trench Davis Wilkin Ruan Howie Bedell
Quincy McAfee Jim Skaalen T.J. Maier Rodney Murrell
Ivan Johnson Terry Pendleton Dillon Hazlett Gordon Powell
Daniel Vellojin Tom Magrann Dave Huppert Jerry Branch
Steven Leyton Giovanny Reyes Chico Diaz Matt Cavagnaro
Jay Allen II Kenny Wilson Donzell McDonald Wes Rogers
Leonardo Rivas Levi Michael Quentin Harley Ken Harvey
Eric Yang Keith Anderson Marc Loeb Brandon Bantz
Chuckie Robinson Brett Hayes Jim Gaudet Jerry McNertney
Matheu Nelson Don Bryant Rick Poznanski Edgar Rodriguez
Isiah Gilliam Tim Pyznarski Harold Holland Doe Boyland
Albert Almora Jr. Hosken Powell Bob Talbot Brent Butler
James Free Jose Camarena Justin Dalles Orlando Gomez
Stephen Piscotty John Ellis Jim Lindeman Rene Friol
Nicholas Northcut James Plant Matt Rose Corey Erickson
Austin Romine Pat Borders Bob Melvin Omir Santos
Drew Mount Tyson Gillies Matt Sauls Casanova Donaldson
Tyler Callihan Robert Groth Hector Bernal Joey DeMichele
TJ Hopkins John Skurla Joe Gaetti Randy Lavigne
Joe Deluca Andrew Longley Tom Egan Maxx Garrett
Jacob Hurtubise Carlton Steele Scott Sollmann Ryan Ruiz
Alex McGarry Ron Mitchell Jayson Drobiak Reggie Sanders
Chris Okey Craig Maddox Brent Del Chiaro Jorge Meran
Michael De León Howie Freiling Edgar Varela Devon Rodriguez
Brian Rey Roy Tanner P.K. Kirsch Jimmy Rohan
Nick Quintana Frank Garcia Tom Hayes Donald Thomas
Miguel Hernandez Chris Miyake Jared Reaves Tony Longueira
Rece Hinds LeDarious Clark Ira Turner Virgil Hill
Austin Hendrick Kevin Clark Richie Robnett Jeff Cunningham
Michel Triana Joe Mahoney Mark Zamojc Harry Warner
Justice Thompson J.D. Williams Brandon Diaz Wilyer Abreu
Quin Cotton Alex Llanos Travis Bolin Blair Beck
Garrett Wolforth Tyler Davidson Gary Hernandez Gene Taylor

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Spencer Steer .272 .349 .481 116 3.1 .220 .299 .383 80 0.8
Matt McLain .262 .356 .477 116 2.8 .200 .302 .348 72 0.5
Noelvi Marte .297 .370 .469 118 3.0 .236 .307 .359 77 0.2
Tyler Stephenson .290 .358 .468 115 2.2 .231 .304 .358 76 0.7
Jonathan India .276 .368 .453 113 2.3 .228 .322 .361 82 0.2
TJ Friedl .281 .359 .461 113 2.3 .227 .306 .355 77 0.2
Christian Encarnacion-Strand .283 .337 .540 124 2.6 .226 .281 .425 84 -0.2
Jake Fraley .276 .371 .500 125 2.0 .227 .322 .386 89 0.4
Nick Solak .299 .372 .480 121 2.2 .243 .317 .373 81 -0.2
Stuart Fairchild .264 .341 .484 114 2.0 .214 .286 .374 73 0.1
Edwin Arroyo .268 .325 .459 102 2.3 .214 .272 .344 61 -0.3
Elly de la Cruz .286 .325 .494 112 2.5 .225 .264 .377 68 -0.3
Donovan Solano .315 .368 .456 115 1.6 .255 .309 .364 77 0.1
Luke Maile .274 .360 .423 104 1.2 .216 .299 .325 66 0.2
Joey Votto .258 .369 .478 120 1.6 .207 .310 .371 81 -0.3
Allan Cerda .231 .331 .445 100 1.7 .172 .275 .326 59 -0.7
Jose Torres .249 .290 .401 78 1.5 .199 .240 .301 44 -0.3
Aristides Aquino .253 .325 .519 117 1.7 .195 .267 .383 69 -0.5
Alejo Lopez .303 .357 .394 99 1.5 .241 .298 .314 64 -0.4
Mike Moustakas .269 .345 .502 120 1.5 .207 .285 .372 73 -0.4
Cristian Santana .299 .331 .436 100 1.5 .247 .279 .350 64 -0.5
Francisco Urbaez .281 .349 .391 93 1.0 .225 .294 .309 60 -0.2
Juniel Querecuto .275 .319 .434 94 1.3 .223 .267 .335 58 -0.6
Kevin Newman .296 .334 .406 96 1.3 .241 .283 .329 63 -0.7
Michael Siani .261 .328 .389 87 1.4 .205 .276 .304 52 -0.9
Max Schrock .297 .344 .453 105 0.8 .238 .282 .353 67 -0.4
Nick Senzel .274 .340 .415 98 1.2 .223 .288 .325 63 -0.6
Robbie Tenerowicz .261 .346 .424 101 0.9 .204 .291 .328 64 -0.5
Colin Moran .284 .350 .470 114 1.1 .227 .291 .365 74 -0.8
Matt Reynolds .269 .351 .399 98 0.9 .214 .295 .313 61 -0.7
Ronnie Dawson .251 .335 .406 93 1.0 .198 .279 .315 57 -1.0
Jose Barrero .244 .296 .402 82 1.1 .192 .248 .306 46 -1.0
Lorenzo Cedrola .288 .321 .397 89 1.1 .235 .272 .317 54 -1.0
Quincy McAfee .246 .331 .375 84 0.9 .188 .270 .282 48 -0.7
Ivan Johnson .243 .301 .407 84 0.7 .193 .251 .307 47 -0.5
Daniel Vellojin .242 .335 .395 93 0.9 .178 .274 .281 51 -0.7
Steven Leyton .260 .290 .419 86 0.9 .202 .237 .312 44 -0.9
Jay Allen II .251 .337 .358 84 0.9 .197 .285 .276 50 -0.8
Leonardo Rivas .243 .320 .353 76 0.6 .194 .270 .270 45 -0.7
Eric Yang .239 .333 .338 79 0.4 .175 .272 .250 41 -0.7
Chuckie Robinson .258 .314 .403 85 0.5 .197 .250 .301 44 -1.0
Matheu Nelson .217 .285 .364 70 0.6 .158 .228 .258 31 -0.9
Isiah Gilliam .252 .325 .447 100 0.9 .194 .267 .339 60 -1.3
Albert Almora Jr. .274 .318 .414 90 0.6 .218 .261 .323 55 -1.0
James Free .250 .302 .403 84 0.3 .189 .240 .297 43 -0.9
Stephen Piscotty .268 .328 .463 105 0.6 .211 .267 .339 61 -1.1
Nicholas Northcut .242 .288 .473 96 0.8 .186 .236 .358 54 -1.4
Austin Romine .258 .290 .397 79 0.1 .199 .229 .298 39 -0.8
Drew Mount .252 .298 .395 81 0.2 .200 .247 .304 46 -0.8
Tyler Callihan .261 .306 .395 82 0.3 .208 .253 .308 47 -1.2
TJ Hopkins .259 .316 .428 94 0.7 .205 .264 .331 56 -1.4
Joe Deluca .179 .275 .339 61 0.0 .115 .213 .214 17 -0.8
Jacob Hurtubise .259 .361 .319 81 0.1 .204 .310 .253 52 -1.0
Alex McGarry .254 .295 .477 99 0.6 .200 .239 .360 54 -1.7
Chris Okey .256 .314 .415 90 0.0 .191 .249 .308 47 -0.9
Michael De León .267 .309 .373 79 0.5 .212 .253 .288 44 -1.3
Brian Rey .277 .324 .410 90 0.1 .221 .273 .315 54 -1.2
Nick Quintana .232 .312 .369 79 0.4 .176 .255 .283 44 -1.5
Miguel Hernandez .259 .296 .352 68 -0.1 .207 .243 .273 35 -1.6
Rece Hinds .219 .275 .411 77 -0.1 .164 .219 .290 32 -1.8
Austin Hendrick .219 .297 .415 85 0.0 .160 .238 .301 42 -2.3
Michel Triana .232 .291 .382 75 -0.5 .179 .238 .292 40 -2.2
Justice Thompson .202 .289 .309 57 -0.8 .153 .237 .226 25 -2.2
Quin Cotton .223 .274 .339 59 -0.9 .167 .215 .248 23 -2.3
Garrett Wolforth .211 .271 .373 65 -0.9 .155 .216 .267 27 -2.4

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Alexis Díaz R 26 6 4 3.68 57 0 63.7 44 26 8 30 81
Nick Lodolo L 25 5 5 3.89 22 22 108.7 96 47 14 34 129
Hunter Greene R 23 9 9 3.92 26 26 128.7 107 56 18 48 157
Luis Cessa R 31 3 4 4.08 43 7 70.7 70 32 9 25 57
Art Warren R 30 2 3 4.15 41 0 39.0 36 18 5 18 42
Justin Wilson L 35 2 1 4.19 41 1 34.3 34 16 5 15 35
Lucas Sims R 29 3 2 4.25 32 8 59.3 51 28 7 29 69
Ian Gibaut R 29 2 3 4.34 42 0 47.7 46 23 6 25 52
Joel Kuhnel R 28 3 3 4.35 54 0 60.0 62 29 9 17 55
Derek Law R 32 3 3 4.42 47 1 53.0 56 26 7 25 52
Connor Overton R 29 3 3 4.43 19 9 63.0 66 31 9 20 51
Kevin Herget R 32 4 5 4.45 22 12 83.0 91 41 13 19 72
Graham Ashcraft R 25 7 8 4.45 25 25 125.3 131 62 15 46 100
Reiver Sanmartin L 27 6 6 4.52 38 12 87.7 93 44 13 30 79
Buck Farmer R 32 3 3 4.58 56 0 57.0 54 29 9 29 64
Andrew Abbott L 24 7 9 4.59 23 22 102.0 99 52 17 45 112
Ben Lively 라이블리 R 31 3 4 4.63 19 15 70.0 73 36 10 30 65
Raynel Espinal R 31 5 6 4.65 23 17 91.0 91 47 13 38 86
Tony Santillan R 26 3 3 4.68 27 11 67.3 65 35 10 35 71
Brandon Williamson L 25 5 6 4.77 24 24 105.7 106 56 16 57 105
Jeff Hoffman R 30 4 5 4.77 31 13 83.0 83 44 14 38 83
Tejay Antone R 29 4 6 4.78 18 11 69.7 71 37 11 31 65
Hunter Strickland R 34 2 3 4.82 53 0 52.3 51 28 9 24 50
Casey Legumina R 26 3 4 4.86 28 14 74.0 78 40 12 32 68
Ryan Hendrix R 28 1 2 4.89 46 0 42.3 40 23 6 26 48
Pedro Garcia R 28 3 4 4.91 41 0 47.7 49 26 8 25 47
Sam Benschoter R 25 4 5 4.96 20 15 69.0 68 38 12 32 76
Mike Minor L 35 7 10 4.96 22 22 118.0 127 65 23 41 103
Evan Kravetz L 26 3 4 4.97 24 9 70.7 73 39 11 38 68
Levi Stoudt R 25 5 8 5.01 21 21 91.7 101 51 15 39 77
Connor Phillips R 22 5 8 5.03 23 23 96.7 93 54 14 62 106
Fernando Cruz R 33 2 3 5.05 50 0 51.7 51 29 9 23 52
Spencer Stockton R 27 3 5 5.08 26 4 56.7 63 32 10 23 48
Vladimir Gutierrez R 27 5 7 5.09 18 18 92.0 96 52 15 39 74
Carson Spiers R 25 4 6 5.09 24 20 106.0 117 60 18 42 83
Ricky Karcher R 25 3 5 5.11 44 0 44.0 37 25 7 32 56
Robert Dugger R 27 4 6 5.11 23 17 88.0 96 50 14 39 73
Kyle Dowdy R 30 2 3 5.12 40 1 51.0 53 29 7 32 47
Ross Detwiler L 37 2 3 5.12 33 7 58.0 66 33 11 24 53
Randy Wynne R 30 5 9 5.12 22 17 103.7 128 59 20 23 62
Joe Boyle R 23 3 6 5.13 24 23 87.7 76 50 13 66 106
Myles Gayman R 25 1 3 5.14 27 0 49.0 54 28 9 14 41
Michael Byrne R 26 3 5 5.17 38 1 55.7 61 32 10 25 47
Matt Pidich R 28 3 5 5.19 37 1 50.3 54 29 9 22 47
Ryan Nutof R 27 3 5 5.23 40 0 51.7 54 30 8 30 49
Justin Dunn R 27 3 5 5.25 18 18 73.7 76 43 14 38 63
Pedro Payano R 28 4 6 5.29 34 12 78.3 81 46 12 53 70
Eddy Demurias R 25 2 4 5.30 47 0 52.7 55 31 9 31 48
Andy Fisher L 27 1 3 5.31 32 0 40.7 40 24 7 26 42
T.J. Zeuch R 27 3 5 5.38 18 14 73.7 85 44 12 32 57
Braxton Roxby R 24 1 3 5.40 29 0 35.0 33 21 5 21 38
Daniel Duarte R 26 1 1 5.40 17 0 18.3 19 11 3 11 18
Justin Nicolino L 31 4 6 5.44 18 16 84.3 105 51 16 31 51
Christian Roa R 24 3 6 5.45 19 18 77.7 81 47 13 51 70
Kyle Zimmer R 31 1 3 5.49 39 3 41.0 43 25 6 28 37
Luke Farrell R 32 2 3 5.50 21 10 55.7 61 34 11 29 50
Eduardo Salazar R 25 4 9 5.52 25 22 102.7 116 63 18 50 76
Chase Anderson R 35 4 7 5.56 27 18 81.0 88 50 16 36 67
Diomar Lopez R 26 1 1 5.60 25 0 35.3 40 22 7 16 28
Stevie Branche R 26 2 4 5.67 27 0 39.7 37 25 7 28 45
Connor Curlis L 26 4 7 5.72 25 17 91.3 102 58 19 42 77
Bernardo Flores Jr. L 27 2 5 5.73 14 13 55.0 67 35 12 23 40
Jared Solomon R 26 3 5 5.75 40 9 67.3 75 43 13 40 61
Vin Timpanelli R 24 1 1 5.82 32 0 43.3 37 28 7 38 55
Deck McGuire 맥과이어 R 34 2 5 5.95 16 11 56.0 63 37 9 40 41
Nick Howard R 30 1 1 6.04 25 0 25.3 26 17 4 22 23
Zack Godley R 33 2 5 6.08 16 8 53.3 59 36 10 31 47
Julio Pinto R 27 2 4 6.42 35 0 40.7 43 29 8 34 40

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Alexis Díaz 63.7 11.5 4.2 1.1 11.2% 30.2% .254 121 3.89 82 1.3
Nick Lodolo 108.7 10.7 2.8 1.2 7.5% 28.4% .301 115 3.83 87 1.9
Hunter Greene 128.7 11.0 3.4 1.3 8.9% 29.2% .287 114 3.88 88 2.2
Luis Cessa 70.7 7.3 3.2 1.1 8.2% 18.8% .289 109 4.34 91 0.7
Art Warren 39.0 9.7 4.2 1.2 10.5% 24.6% .301 107 4.13 93 0.3
Justin Wilson 34.3 9.2 3.9 1.3 9.8% 22.9% .305 106 4.41 94 0.3
Lucas Sims 59.3 10.5 4.4 1.1 11.3% 27.0% .295 105 4.03 95 0.9
Ian Gibaut 47.7 9.8 4.7 1.1 11.7% 24.4% .313 103 4.31 97 0.3
Joel Kuhnel 60.0 8.3 2.6 1.4 6.6% 21.4% .305 102 4.22 98 0.3
Derek Law 53.0 8.8 4.2 1.2 10.4% 21.6% .322 101 4.44 99 0.3
Connor Overton 63.0 7.3 2.9 1.3 7.3% 18.6% .300 101 4.49 99 0.8
Kevin Herget 83.0 7.8 2.1 1.4 5.4% 20.3% .313 100 4.25 100 1.1
Graham Ashcraft 125.3 7.2 3.3 1.1 8.3% 18.0% .303 100 4.43 100 1.6
Reiver Sanmartin 87.7 8.1 3.1 1.3 7.8% 20.6% .310 99 4.37 101 1.0
Buck Farmer 57.0 10.1 4.6 1.4 11.5% 25.3% .304 97 4.64 103 0.2
Andrew Abbott 102.0 9.9 4.0 1.5 10.0% 24.9% .305 97 4.62 103 1.2
Ben Lively 70.0 8.4 3.9 1.3 9.7% 21.0% .310 96 4.65 104 0.8
Raynel Espinal 91.0 8.5 3.8 1.3 9.5% 21.5% .301 96 4.64 104 1.1
Tony Santillan 67.3 9.5 4.7 1.3 11.6% 23.5% .302 95 4.76 105 0.8
Brandon Williamson 105.7 8.9 4.9 1.4 11.9% 22.0% .305 93 4.98 107 1.0
Jeff Hoffman 83.0 9.0 4.1 1.5 10.3% 22.4% .301 93 4.94 107 0.5
Tejay Antone 69.7 8.4 4.0 1.4 10.0% 21.0% .302 93 4.89 107 0.8
Hunter Strickland 52.3 8.6 4.1 1.5 10.4% 21.7% .290 93 5.08 108 0.0
Casey Legumina 74.0 8.3 3.9 1.5 9.7% 20.7% .307 92 4.84 109 0.7
Ryan Hendrix 42.3 10.2 5.5 1.3 13.3% 24.6% .309 91 4.78 110 0.0
Pedro Garcia 47.7 8.9 4.7 1.5 11.4% 21.5% .306 91 5.13 110 0.0
Sam Benschoter 69.0 9.9 4.2 1.6 10.3% 24.5% .306 90 4.91 111 0.7
Mike Minor 118.0 7.9 3.1 1.8 8.0% 20.0% .301 90 5.11 111 1.0
Evan Kravetz 70.7 8.7 4.8 1.4 11.8% 21.2% .308 90 4.99 111 0.5
Levi Stoudt 91.7 7.6 3.8 1.5 9.3% 18.4% .310 89 5.04 112 0.7
Connor Phillips 96.7 9.9 5.8 1.3 13.8% 23.6% .307 89 4.98 113 0.8
Fernando Cruz 51.7 9.1 4.0 1.6 10.1% 22.9% .298 88 4.97 113 0.0
Spencer Stockton 56.7 7.6 3.7 1.6 9.1% 19.0% .310 88 5.13 114 0.2
Vladimir Gutierrez 92.0 7.2 3.8 1.5 9.6% 18.2% .293 88 5.16 114 0.6
Carson Spiers 106.0 7.0 3.6 1.5 8.9% 17.5% .304 87 5.24 114 0.9
Ricky Karcher 44.0 11.5 6.5 1.4 15.4% 26.9% .291 87 5.20 115 -0.1
Robert Dugger 88.0 7.5 4.0 1.4 9.8% 18.4% .307 87 5.06 115 0.6
Kyle Dowdy 51.0 8.3 5.6 1.2 13.3% 19.6% .311 87 5.21 115 0.0
Ross Detwiler 58.0 8.2 3.7 1.7 9.2% 20.3% .320 87 5.29 115 0.2
Randy Wynne 103.7 5.4 2.0 1.7 5.1% 13.6% .309 87 5.22 115 0.8
Joe Boyle 87.7 10.9 6.8 1.3 15.9% 25.6% .293 87 5.09 115 0.7
Myles Gayman 49.0 7.5 2.6 1.7 6.6% 19.4% .306 87 5.21 115 -0.1
Michael Byrne 55.7 7.6 4.0 1.6 9.8% 18.5% .305 86 5.26 116 0.0
Matt Pidich 50.3 8.4 3.9 1.6 9.6% 20.6% .310 86 5.10 116 -0.1
Ryan Nutof 51.7 8.5 5.2 1.4 12.3% 20.1% .311 85 5.13 117 -0.1
Justin Dunn 73.7 7.7 4.6 1.7 11.4% 18.9% .288 85 5.71 118 0.4
Pedro Payano 78.3 8.0 6.1 1.4 14.4% 19.1% .303 84 5.66 119 0.3
Eddy Demurias 52.7 8.2 5.3 1.5 12.8% 19.8% .303 84 5.55 119 -0.2
Andy Fisher 40.7 9.3 5.8 1.5 14.0% 22.6% .300 84 5.69 119 -0.2
T.J. Zeuch 73.7 7.0 3.9 1.5 9.6% 17.0% .316 83 5.23 121 0.4
Braxton Roxby 35.0 9.8 5.4 1.3 13.1% 23.8% .301 83 5.32 121 -0.1
Daniel Duarte 18.3 8.8 5.4 1.5 12.6% 20.7% .308 83 5.28 121 -0.1
Justin Nicolino 84.3 5.4 3.3 1.7 8.1% 13.3% .313 82 5.62 122 0.4
Christian Roa 77.7 8.1 5.9 1.5 14.0% 19.2% .302 82 5.65 122 0.3
Kyle Zimmer 41.0 8.1 6.1 1.3 14.4% 19.0% .308 81 5.37 123 -0.1
Luke Farrell 55.7 8.1 4.7 1.8 11.4% 19.6% .307 81 5.65 123 0.1
Eduardo Salazar 102.7 6.7 4.4 1.6 10.6% 16.1% .304 81 5.68 124 0.4
Chase Anderson 81.0 7.4 4.0 1.8 9.9% 18.5% .298 80 5.55 125 0.2
Diomar Lopez 35.3 7.1 4.1 1.8 9.9% 17.3% .306 80 5.76 126 -0.2
Stevie Branche 39.7 10.2 6.4 1.6 15.0% 24.1% .297 79 5.75 127 -0.3
Connor Curlis 91.3 7.6 4.1 1.9 10.1% 18.6% .304 78 5.75 128 0.2
Bernardo Flores Jr. 55.0 6.5 3.8 2.0 9.1% 15.8% .313 78 5.84 128 0.1
Jared Solomon 67.3 8.2 5.3 1.7 12.6% 19.2% .313 78 5.90 129 -0.1
Vin Timpanelli 43.3 11.4 7.9 1.5 18.3% 26.4% .294 77 5.97 130 -0.4
Deck McGuire 56.0 6.6 6.4 1.4 14.8% 15.2% .305 75 6.08 133 -0.1
Nick Howard 25.3 8.2 7.8 1.4 17.7% 18.5% .301 74 6.23 135 -0.3
Zack Godley 53.3 7.9 5.2 1.7 12.4% 18.7% .310 73 5.91 136 -0.2
Julio Pinto 40.7 8.9 7.5 1.8 16.8% 19.8% .307 69 6.69 144 -0.7

Pitchers – Top Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Alexis Díaz Scott Williamson José Leclerc Mark Littell 1.9 0.4 2.86 4.97
Nick Lodolo Johnny Podres Britt Burns Tommy John 2.6 1.1 3.31 4.57
Hunter Greene Art Mahaffey Carl Erskine Sam Militello 3.1 1.1 3.37 4.64
Luis Cessa Alexi Ogando 오간도 Alex Wilson Alfredo Aceves 1.2 0.2 3.52 4.74
Art Warren Fred Lasher Dave Campbell Anthony Chavez 0.7 0.0 3.31 5.14
Justin Wilson Ray Searage Terry Forster Tony Fossas 0.6 -0.1 3.31 5.48
Lucas Sims John Purdin Marvin Freeman Alvin Crowder 1.5 0.3 3.50 5.07
Ian Gibaut Josh Roenicke Ron Piche Jon Link 0.7 -0.1 3.59 5.30
Joel Kuhnel Frank Herrmann Jeff Gray Chris Reitsma 0.7 -0.2 3.75 5.12
Derek Law Larry Rothschild Mike Parrott Roberto Giron 0.7 -0.2 3.75 5.23
Connor Overton Charlie Mitchell Casey Sadler Johnny Rutherford 1.1 0.3 3.86 5.19
Kevin Herget Milt Pappas Enrique Quintanilla Bronswell Patrick 패트릭 1.7 0.5 3.85 5.25
Graham Ashcraft Antonio Senzatela Mike Pelfrey Fernando Romero 2.3 0.8 3.96 5.05
Reiver Sanmartin Kevin Bearse Buddy Groom Jeff Urban 1.5 0.2 3.93 5.41
Buck Farmer Turk Wendell Dan Osinski Mike Hartley 0.7 -0.4 3.77 5.82
Andrew Abbott Patrick Sandoval Charlie Manning Dennis Cook 2.0 0.4 3.94 5.30
Ben Lively Kyle Middleton Ron Musselman Francisco Cordova 1.3 0.4 4.04 5.32
Raynel Espinal Mike Oquist Dave Wickersham Bob Walk 1.7 0.5 4.11 5.33
Tony Santillan Jason Fronio Michael Stutes Terric McFarlin 1.4 0.2 4.05 5.52
Brandon Williamson Zane Smith Fabio Castro Steve Engel 1.7 0.2 4.21 5.52
Jeff Hoffman John Tsitouris Seth Simmons Joe Coleman 1.1 -0.1 4.17 5.57
Tejay Antone Michael Blazek Denny Lail Matt Fox 1.3 0.2 4.16 5.55
Hunter Strickland Daniel Hudson Terry Mathews Juan Acevedo 0.4 -0.5 4.01 5.92
Casey Legumina Brett Hinchliffe Brock Huntzinger Scott Rivette 1.1 0.1 4.39 5.63
Ryan Hendrix Ryan Garton R.J. Alvarez Al Jones 0.4 -0.4 4.22 5.91
Pedro Garcia Bruce Dal Canton Andy Graham Bob Chakales 0.4 -0.5 4.18 5.88
Sam Benschoter Joe Skalski Tyson Ross Jerry Davie 1.2 0.1 4.29 5.69
Mike Minor Mickey Haefner Buddy Black Bob Knepper 1.7 0.2 4.32 5.65
Evan Kravetz Chester Vincent Taylor Sinclair Lee Hancock 1.1 -0.1 4.29 5.73
Levi Stoudt Dylan Thompson Glenn Spagnola Scott Robinson 1.2 0.1 4.50 5.64
Connor Phillips Kevin Gross Shawn Hillegas Edwin Jackson 1.5 0.0 4.43 5.80
Fernando Cruz Al Worthington Aaron Heilman Bob Humphreys 0.4 -0.5 4.24 6.05
Spencer Stockton Steve Rowe Albert Bustillos Dale Mohorcic 0.6 -0.2 4.47 5.78
Vladimir Gutierrez Jorge Sosa Roberto Rodriguez Mitch Atkins 1.1 0.1 4.57 5.68
Carson Spiers Mike Aspray Larry Pashnick Dan Houston 1.5 0.2 4.56 5.72
Ricky Karcher Frank Snook Jhan Marinez Dustin Hermanson 0.3 -0.6 4.38 6.06
Robert Dugger Glenn Spagnola Craig Weissmann Troy Mattes 1.1 0.0 4.55 5.80
Kyle Dowdy Brad Moore Jim Siwy Tony Fiore 0.4 -0.5 4.37 6.04
Ross Detwiler Tom Bolton Ken Heintzelman Art Nehf 0.7 -0.4 4.20 6.61
Randy Wynne Nick Blackburn Christian Bergman Javier Solano 1.3 0.2 4.68 5.65
Joe Boyle Dave Morehead Dick Drott Mike Norris 1.5 -0.4 4.35 6.36
Myles Gayman Mike Freitas Frank Gabler Tom Boleska 0.4 -0.4 4.23 5.99
Michael Byrne Nolan Blackwood Abe Woody Jim Miner 0.3 -0.4 4.61 5.85
Matt Pidich Johnny Shuttlesworth Blas Cedeno Jim Abbott 0.3 -0.6 4.47 6.18
Ryan Nutof Jeff Schattinger Tayler Scott Abe Woody 0.2 -0.6 4.55 6.12
Justin Dunn Jeff Robinson Hank Webb Gary Eave 0.8 -0.1 4.77 5.98
Pedro Payano Frankie De La Cruz Hisel Patrick Jack Hamilton 0.9 -0.4 4.61 6.19
Eddy Demurias Austin House Jon Searles Bobby Hunter 0.2 -0.5 4.70 5.91
Andy Fisher Brian Adams Mark Miggins Tom Funk 0.1 -0.5 4.64 6.19
T.J. Zeuch Mike Nagy Mike Bacsik Jordan Pries 0.8 -0.2 4.85 6.22
Braxton Roxby Rick Raether Jim Winn Manuel Rodriguez 0.1 -0.4 4.65 6.22
Daniel Duarte Ricardo Aponte Eddie Moore Daniel Gorden 0.0 -0.3 4.76 6.23
Justin Nicolino Brian Buchanan Greg Hibbard Alain Quijano 0.8 -0.1 4.97 6.10
Christian Roa Rich Webster Javier Martinez Michael Lowry 0.8 -0.2 4.90 6.09
Kyle Zimmer Mike Overy Mike Barlow Marc Wilkins 0.3 -0.5 4.68 6.58
Luke Farrell Seth Simmons Dave Leonhard Craig McMurtry 0.5 -0.3 4.80 6.34
Eduardo Salazar Will Schock Roger Williams Deck McGuire 0.9 -0.2 5.11 6.10
Chase Anderson Socks Seibold Eric Show Ray Burris 0.7 -0.5 4.96 6.53
Diomar Lopez Rob Hicks Jason Cole William Drummond 0.0 -0.5 5.06 6.53
Stevie Branche Terry Bross Frank Snook Don DeMola 0.1 -0.7 4.85 6.75
Connor Curlis Ben Braymer Cody Forsythe Buddy Groom 0.7 -0.5 5.16 6.48
Bernardo Flores Jr. Patrick Conroy Dallas Mahan Mike Skane 0.3 -0.4 5.24 6.59
Jared Solomon Paul O’Malley Mike Bumstead Josh Bradford 0.4 -0.6 5.08 6.47
Vin Timpanelli Frank Snook Jhan Marinez Jake Cosart -0.1 -0.9 5.04 6.92
Deck McGuire Cesar Carrillo Lucas Harrell 루카스 Rafael Pina 0.3 -0.6 5.31 6.95
Nick Howard Bill Wilson Leo Marentette Juan Cerros -0.1 -0.6 5.14 7.16
Zack Godley Jim Bullinger Kip Wells Sean Green 0.2 -0.6 5.38 7.05
Julio Pinto Kris Harvey David Carpenter Tad Slowik -0.3 -1.1 5.67 7.47

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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tz
2 months ago

(sees Dan’s big writeup on the Reds….types Ctrl-F “chili”….0 hits!!)

Very impressed at your restraint Dan!