2022 ZiPS Projections: Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins.

Batters

We’ll get the bad news out of the way first because, well, that’s the order we do these blurbs in. There’s a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. The offensive holes aren’t so deep as to prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping. But the offense is thoroughly uninspiring wherever you look. The lineup is neither good nor particularly young, and as such, it will likely struggle to push the Marlins to be much better than the National League’s 14th-ranked offense in runs scored, Miami’s 2021 mark.

Even more concerning is that the better-performing players are mostly already in their decline phase. Miguel Rojas, Jesús Aguilar, and Jacob Stallings are already on the wrong side of 30 and not the kind of awesome where there’s a lot of room for a soft landing, though Stallings’ glove ought to make him valuable longer than the other two, especially Aguilar. While I hate to discourage the Marlins from investing in free agents, it’s hard to envision Avisaíl García really doing much to improve the team.

ZiPS isn’t that much more optimistic about the future of the lineup than it is the present. Jesús Sánchez is the only position player on the team projected to have at least 10 WAR remaining in his career (Jazz Chisholm Jr. just missed). The computer is understandably quite worried about JJ Bleday. While he destroyed pitchers at Vanderbilt, that was three years ago. He just hasn’t hit in the minor leagues so far and was likely hindered by not playing in real games in 2020. Already 23 with no upper minors experience, it wasn’t a stretch to say that 2021 was a make-or-break type of season, and with a sub-.700 OPS for Double-A Pensacola, it didn’t fall on the good side. His performance in the Arizona Fall League was something, but the AFL also isn’t an exceptionally high level of competition relative to the high minors. Bleday’s not a bust, but he’s got to turn things around very quickly now.

Pitchers

Now we come to the reason ZiPS think the Marlins can approach .500, despite a terrible lineup. Sandy Alcantara is the cream of an impressive comp and 2021 was his coming-out show. He knocked that final walk-per-nine off his walk rate, and ZiPS still thinks he isn’t striking as many batters as he could given his stuff and plate discipline results. His five-year, $56 million contract was a bargain for the Marlins. Don’t grumble about the Ben McDonald comp; Big Ben is arguably one of the most underrated pitchers of the 1990s because of the occasionally popular belief that he disappointed. But 21 career WAR is above the average expectation for any draft pick; it was injuries that derailed his career, not lack of awesomeness.

Similarly, ZiPS anticipates little true regression from Trevor Rogers. Unlike many surging pitcher Rookie of the Year candidates, Rogers actually underperformed his FIP (it’s usually the other way around), and his missed time was due to family-related COVID issues rather than an injury. Pablo López projects as another near-All-Star candidate. And at the back of the rotation, the Marlins have a whole stable of lively arms of all sorts, though many in this group have one big worry, whether it’s injury (Sixto Sánchez), command (Jesús Luzardo), or maybe ZiPS just going too nuts about a bonkers debut (Jake Eder). Miami can easily put together an above-average rotation with arms to spare. If the franchise proves surprisingly willing to splash cash this spring, the offense is a much better target.

The bullpen projects as respectable, though less dominating than the rotation. Led by Dylan Floro, Richard Bleier, and the Tony B’s, nobody’s projected to be a late-inning terror, but they’ll be able to protect most of the occasional leads the offense gives them. If only the Marlins could win games zero-to-negative-one. The projections may underrate the bullpen simply because the depth of the rotation and the various injury concerns among the starters could result in some of those live arms finding at least a temporary home in relief. Frankly, I’d put Luzardo here to iron out his issues, but the team didn’t ask me.

The Marlins could be a really good team if the offense holds up its end of the workload. Unfortunately, that means the Marlins probably won’t be a really good team.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Miguel Rojas R 33 SS 527 483 56 129 25 2 8 47 34 68 11 4
Jacob Stallings R 32 C 376 336 34 83 16 1 7 40 34 81 0 0
Brian Anderson R 29 3B 427 376 46 95 19 1 14 51 39 100 5 1
Joey Wendle L 32 3B 463 425 60 114 26 4 9 42 24 91 9 5
Jesús Sánchez L 24 RF 459 417 51 102 15 3 19 58 34 124 2 2
Avisaíl García R 31 RF 509 463 59 118 21 1 20 66 32 122 7 4
Jesús Aguilar R 32 1B 457 402 48 102 18 0 18 75 44 93 0 0
Lewin Díaz L 25 1B 476 442 52 107 20 2 20 55 26 108 1 0
Jazz Chisholm Jr. L 24 2B 511 464 66 106 16 6 19 55 38 161 20 8
Garrett Cooper R 31 RF 329 291 39 76 12 1 11 39 32 87 1 1
Jon Berti R 32 3B 309 268 42 64 11 1 5 24 33 70 13 5
Bryson Brigman R 27 SS 451 407 43 95 17 3 5 28 33 83 7 4
Bryan De La Cruz R 25 RF 539 493 58 133 21 3 14 50 36 123 3 4
Griffin Conine L 24 RF 456 418 46 90 13 1 23 56 32 184 2 1
Isan Díaz L 26 3B 453 401 51 89 17 2 10 42 48 121 4 3
Nick Fortes R 25 C 389 349 48 79 15 2 9 38 28 73 4 1
Alex Jackson R 26 C 311 276 33 50 10 1 13 33 22 123 1 0
JJ Bleday L 24 RF 444 397 54 88 17 2 13 41 41 105 3 2
Monte Harrison R 26 CF 351 317 39 64 10 1 11 33 26 137 20 4
Peyton Burdick R 25 CF 456 399 48 81 16 2 16 42 47 140 5 4
Dustin Fowler L 27 CF 453 421 48 98 14 3 12 43 24 130 8 2
Victor Victor Mesa R 25 CF 413 384 39 89 9 2 3 24 20 78 8 2
Charles Leblanc R 26 3B 449 411 49 87 14 2 10 40 34 137 4 2
José Devers L 22 SS 145 132 16 30 6 1 1 11 9 29 1 0
Payton Henry R 25 C 374 340 35 68 12 1 8 29 22 128 0 1
Brian Navarreto R 27 C 224 206 20 42 8 0 6 18 11 52 0 0
Deven Marrero R 31 3B 313 285 35 58 9 1 7 26 25 90 4 1
Luis Marté R 28 SS 276 260 26 56 9 0 4 20 11 71 6 2
Joe Panik L 31 3B 360 326 33 78 14 1 4 26 28 44 3 1
Luis Aviles Jr. R 27 SS 328 301 30 61 13 1 8 28 19 97 13 3
Troy Johnston L 25 1B 481 440 63 103 18 1 10 46 34 113 3 1
Joe Dunand R 26 3B 400 361 37 70 14 1 7 31 25 119 0 0
Erik González R 30 3B 265 250 23 58 10 1 3 23 11 57 3 2
Lorenzo Quintana R 33 1B 308 286 32 68 13 1 8 28 15 70 2 2
Santiago Chávez R 26 C 219 203 13 33 5 0 3 9 13 75 1 0
Tevin Mitchell R 25 LF 108 96 8 15 3 1 2 6 8 37 1 1
Lewis Brinson R 28 LF 438 406 40 87 17 2 11 44 25 124 6 2
Galli Cribbs Jr. L 29 SS 232 211 18 35 5 2 2 13 14 88 3 1
Devin Hairston R 26 SS 346 318 29 55 10 1 4 20 23 119 3 2
Demetrius Sims R 26 SS 346 310 32 56 11 1 5 21 26 125 10 5
Chris Chinea R 28 1B 244 229 23 50 9 0 5 19 12 64 0 1
Ray-Patrick Didder R 27 SS 385 342 40 64 13 2 5 23 31 113 13 5
Tristan Pompey B 25 LF 202 181 25 35 7 0 3 16 18 65 1 1
Brian Miller L 26 CF 484 447 51 108 18 3 3 32 28 98 24 7
Cobie Vance R 24 3B 440 397 45 84 16 1 4 25 31 91 6 0
Justin Twine R 26 2B 326 301 27 57 8 3 4 22 14 112 8 2
Will Banfield R 22 C 347 322 33 54 10 1 6 28 18 112 1 0
Zack Kone R 25 3B 258 239 22 42 7 1 3 15 18 91 3 1
Davis Bradshaw L 24 LF 281 262 30 58 8 1 3 18 11 58 4 4
Lazaro Alonso L 27 1B 361 319 36 62 11 0 8 28 39 127 1 1
Riley Mahan L 26 2B 382 350 33 66 13 1 7 27 23 136 2 2
J.D. Orr L 25 LF 284 258 21 57 8 2 2 10 24 63 13 7
Corey Bird L 26 RF 327 298 29 64 11 2 5 21 25 73 11 2
Jerar Encarnación R 24 RF 429 396 41 79 14 1 11 36 28 151 5 4
J.D. Osborne R 26 1B 254 234 24 44 8 0 5 21 13 81 1 0

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Miguel Rojas .267 .321 .377 90 .110 .297 4.5 6 2.4 Edgar Renteria
Jacob Stallings .247 .320 .363 86 .116 .306 4.2 11 2.4 Geno Petralli
Brian Anderson .253 .337 .420 105 .168 .309 5.2 0 2.0 Pinky Higgins
Joey Wendle .268 .320 .412 98 .144 .323 4.8 2 1.7 Jim Davenport
Jesús Sánchez .245 .307 .432 99 .187 .303 4.7 6 1.6 Hunter Pence
Avisail Garcia .255 .314 .434 101 .179 .305 4.9 1 1.3 Jose Guillen
Jesús Aguilar .254 .326 .433 105 .179 .289 5.1 1 1.2 Paul Konerko
Lewin Díaz .242 .288 .432 93 .190 .277 4.5 7 1.1 Matt Luke
Jazz Chisholm Jr. .228 .292 .412 89 .183 .306 4.3 -3 1.0 Andy Fox
Garrett Cooper .261 .343 .423 108 .162 .337 5.3 -2 1.0 Keith Moreland
Jon Berti .239 .331 .343 85 .104 .306 4.2 1 0.9 Esteban German
Bryson Brigman .233 .295 .327 70 .093 .282 3.4 5 0.9 Eric Martins
Bryan De La Cruz .270 .321 .410 98 .140 .334 4.7 -2 0.8 Matt Murton
Griffin Conine .215 .279 .416 86 .201 .318 4.0 3 0.6 Joe Vitiello
Isan Díaz .222 .308 .349 79 .127 .293 3.7 0 0.5 Rodney Nye
Nick Fortes .226 .295 .358 77 .132 .262 3.7 -3 0.5 Charlie Moore
Alex Jackson .181 .268 .366 71 .185 .264 3.3 1 0.4 Jim Horner
JJ Bleday .222 .296 .373 81 .151 .269 3.8 3 0.3 Chris Richard
Monte Harrison .202 .272 .344 67 .142 .314 3.6 1 0.3 Damon Mashore
Peyton Burdick .203 .298 .373 82 .170 .267 3.7 -5 0.2 Kevin Belcher
Dustin Fowler .233 .279 .366 74 .133 .308 3.7 -1 0.2 Alexis Gomez
Victor Victor Mesa .232 .273 .289 54 .057 .284 2.9 9 0.2 Jesus Campos
Charles Leblanc .212 .272 .328 63 .117 .292 3.1 4 0.1 Bert Pena
José Devers .227 .285 .311 63 .083 .284 3.2 -1 -0.1 Chris Gomez
Payton Henry .200 .265 .312 57 .112 .294 2.7 2 -0.1 Alan Probst
Brian Navarreto .204 .249 .330 56 .126 .243 2.8 1 -0.1 Scott Servais
Deven Marrero .204 .269 .316 59 .112 .271 3.0 2 -0.2 Dave Matranga
Luis Marté .215 .248 .296 48 .081 .281 2.6 3 -0.2 John Alva
Joe Panik .239 .304 .325 72 .086 .266 3.5 -4 -0.3 Johnny Burnett
Luis Aviles Jr. .203 .252 .332 58 .130 .270 3.1 -2 -0.4 Kelly Dransfeldt
Troy Johnston .234 .294 .348 74 .114 .293 3.6 1 -0.4 Michael Paulk
Joe Dunand .194 .258 .296 51 .102 .268 2.6 5 -0.4 Randy Blood
Erik González .232 .265 .316 58 .084 .289 2.9 0 -0.5 Jace Brewer
Lorenzo Quintana .238 .287 .374 79 .136 .288 3.7 -3 -0.5 Bill Stein
Santiago Chávez .163 .220 .232 24 .069 .240 1.7 5 -0.6 Gary Tremblay
Tevin Mitchell .156 .243 .271 40 .115 .228 2.0 -1 -0.6 Juan Ballara
Lewis Brinson .214 .268 .347 66 .133 .280 3.2 1 -0.6 John Giudice
Galli Cribbs Jr. .166 .230 .237 28 .071 .273 1.8 3 -0.7 Les Dennis
Devin Hairston .173 .230 .248 31 .075 .262 1.8 7 -0.8 Lou Benbow
Demetrius Sims .181 .258 .271 45 .090 .283 2.3 0 -0.8 Brett King
Chris Chinea .218 .262 .323 59 .105 .281 2.8 1 -0.8 Brian Becker
Ray-Patrick Didder .187 .269 .281 51 .094 .263 2.6 -3 -0.8 Kirk Mendenhall
Tristan Pompey .193 .269 .282 51 .088 .283 2.5 -1 -0.8 Gerad Cawhorn
Brian Miller .242 .289 .315 65 .074 .303 3.5 -7 -0.8 Chris Frey
Cobie Vance .212 .276 .287 55 .076 .265 2.9 -2 -0.9 Joe Kerrigan
Justin Twine .189 .235 .276 39 .086 .286 2.3 3 -0.9 Enohel Polanco
Will Banfield .168 .217 .261 30 .093 .235 1.9 5 -0.9 Jose Molina
Zack Kone .176 .236 .251 33 .075 .269 2.0 2 -1.0 Jake Wald
Davis Bradshaw .221 .265 .294 53 .073 .274 2.5 0 -1.1 Gary Trammell
Lazaro Alonso .194 .285 .304 61 .110 .293 2.9 -2 -1.2 Tate Seefried
Riley Mahan .189 .245 .291 46 .103 .285 2.3 0 -1.2 Mark Farris
J.D. Orr .221 .292 .291 60 .070 .285 2.9 -6 -1.3 Buck McNabb
Corey Bird .215 .279 .315 62 .101 .268 3.3 -8 -1.4 Kevin O’Connor
Jerar Encarnación .199 .257 .323 57 .124 .291 2.7 -2 -1.6 Jon Zeringue
J.D. Osborne .188 .244 .286 44 .098 .264 2.4 -5 -1.7 Ray Hansen

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Sandy Alcantara R 26 13 9 3.43 32 32 194.3 167 74 18 58 194 3.42
Trevor Rogers L 24 10 7 3.38 28 28 141.0 119 53 15 49 166 3.38
Pablo López R 26 7 6 3.66 23 23 113.0 104 46 13 28 113 3.63
Sixto Sánchez R 23 7 6 3.64 18 18 99.0 96 40 9 24 81 3.60
Max Meyer R 23 5 6 4.35 24 24 109.7 108 53 12 49 97 4.31
Jesús Luzardo L 24 9 10 4.50 33 26 130.0 129 65 20 55 134 4.53
Edward Cabrera R 24 5 6 4.36 21 21 88.7 81 43 12 44 97 4.44
Jake Eder L 23 4 4 4.22 16 16 70.3 65 33 9 31 72 4.25
Braxton Garrett L 24 6 7 4.70 26 25 115.0 118 60 16 49 100 4.68
Dylan Floro R 31 6 4 3.37 62 0 58.7 53 22 4 20 53 3.33
Daniel Castano L 27 5 6 4.68 22 17 100.0 108 52 14 32 67 4.77
Antonio Velez L 25 4 5 4.57 24 14 90.7 98 46 13 21 63 4.51
Elieser Hernandez R 27 3 4 4.62 23 19 89.7 86 46 17 27 95 4.63
Richard Bleier L 35 2 2 3.44 57 0 49.7 49 19 4 8 36 3.44
Zach McCambley R 23 6 8 4.83 21 21 98.7 104 53 17 33 84 4.87
Anthony Bender R 27 3 3 3.90 52 2 60.0 52 26 6 26 64 3.90
Austin Pruitt R 32 3 3 4.33 27 5 62.3 64 30 8 15 50 4.06
Jake Walters R 26 3 4 4.66 19 9 65.7 67 34 8 30 50 4.79
Sean Guenther L 26 3 3 4.18 38 3 66.7 69 31 8 20 54 4.20
Josh A. Smith R 34 3 3 4.69 18 8 55.7 59 29 8 18 46 4.53
Luís Madero R 25 5 7 4.88 24 11 79.3 84 43 11 31 60 4.83
Zach Pop R 25 1 1 4.07 50 1 55.3 52 25 6 23 53 4.30
Louis Head R 32 1 1 4.24 45 2 51.0 47 24 7 19 50 4.36
Steven Okert L 30 3 3 4.21 47 1 51.3 46 24 8 18 58 4.23
Anthony Bass R 34 5 5 4.25 61 1 55.0 50 26 8 21 54 4.36
Jordan Holloway R 26 5 7 5.04 24 15 75.0 69 42 9 52 72 5.02
Will Stewart L 24 6 8 5.20 20 20 98.7 109 57 12 45 61 5.04
Josh Roberson R 26 3 3 4.71 26 6 49.7 49 26 5 27 42 4.61
Nick Neidert R 25 5 7 5.21 21 19 93.3 102 54 15 40 64 5.38
Jake Fishman L 27 2 3 4.37 37 1 55.7 56 27 7 18 46 4.29
Paul Campbell R 26 5 7 5.11 21 11 74.0 80 42 12 27 56 5.03
Matthew Kent L 29 5 7 5.13 26 12 100.0 116 57 15 33 62 5.06
Cody Poteet R 27 5 7 5.34 17 17 87.7 91 52 16 35 72 5.24
Brandon Leibrandt L 29 5 7 5.33 20 16 77.7 85 46 12 31 54 5.15
Anthony Maldonado R 24 3 4 4.76 21 2 28.3 30 15 4 9 21 4.59
Brian McKenna R 29 1 1 4.50 11 0 14.0 13 7 2 6 14 4.54
Cody Carroll R 29 1 1 4.50 34 0 36.0 35 18 4 18 35 4.26
Preston Guilmet R 34 3 3 4.65 33 1 50.3 50 26 9 15 52 4.45
Taylor Williams R 30 2 2 4.54 36 0 41.7 41 21 6 20 41 4.74
Zack Leban R 26 1 2 4.53 37 0 47.7 49 24 5 20 38 4.33
Robert Garcia L 26 3 4 4.56 34 0 49.3 48 25 5 26 44 4.48
Brett Eibner R 33 1 2 4.85 11 0 13.0 13 7 2 6 11 5.10
Jackson Rose R 26 3 4 4.88 26 2 62.7 66 34 10 22 50 4.90
Tommy Eveld R 28 4 4 4.63 40 0 46.7 45 24 8 17 47 4.62
Andrew Nardi L 23 3 4 4.62 29 0 48.7 48 25 6 22 43 4.56
Jeff Lindgren R 25 5 8 5.46 20 17 90.7 103 55 16 34 58 5.45
Brandon Barker R 29 2 3 5.53 15 11 53.7 60 33 10 19 38 5.42
Alexander Guillen R 26 2 2 4.82 34 1 56.0 57 30 8 24 47 4.81
Tyler Stevens R 26 3 3 4.76 33 0 45.3 45 24 7 20 42 4.86
C.J. Carter R 25 2 3 4.86 24 0 33.3 33 18 5 16 28 4.98
Shawn Morimando L 29 3 4 5.53 20 15 86.3 97 53 17 33 69 5.43
Colton Hock R 26 3 4 4.94 42 1 54.7 57 30 7 25 44 4.77
Aneurys Zabala R 25 3 4 4.98 36 0 47.0 47 26 6 25 41 4.82
Jefry Yan L 25 0 1 5.23 22 0 32.7 31 19 4 23 32 5.11
Parker Bugg R 27 3 5 5.20 35 3 64.0 61 37 12 34 69 5.20
Bryan Mitchell R 31 2 3 5.58 27 7 61.3 66 38 10 32 49 5.41
Jorge Guzman R 26 4 6 5.81 19 14 74.3 72 48 12 55 70 5.82
Jordan Guerrero R 25 2 4 5.50 29 3 54.0 58 33 10 27 47 5.51
Jose Mesa Jr. R 28 1 1 6.75 14 3 25.3 28 19 5 17 19 6.38
Dylan Bice R 24 3 5 5.37 39 0 52.0 55 31 8 27 39 5.41
Andrew McInvale R 25 3 5 5.56 34 0 43.7 43 27 7 29 41 5.58
Mason Melotakis L 31 1 2 6.21 22 0 29.0 34 20 6 14 20 6.15
Justin Evans R 25 2 4 5.59 35 0 48.3 53 30 8 24 36 5.52

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Sandy Alcantara 9.0 2.7 0.8 7.2% 24.1% .284 123 81 4.3 Ben McDonald
Trevor Rogers 10.6 3.1 1.0 8.3% 28.2% .295 125 80 3.2 Britt Burns
Pablo López 9.0 2.2 1.0 5.9% 24.0% .294 115 87 2.2 Larry Christenson
Sixto Sánchez 7.4 2.2 0.8 5.8% 19.5% .294 116 86 2.0 Tom Bradley
Max Meyer 8.0 4.0 1.0 10.1% 20.1% .300 97 103 1.3 Joe Bitker
Jesús Luzardo 9.3 3.8 1.4 9.6% 23.5% .306 94 106 1.2 Mark Guthrie
Edward Cabrera 9.8 4.5 1.2 11.3% 24.8% .297 97 103 1.0 Doug Bochtler
Jake Eder 9.2 4.0 1.2 10.2% 23.6% .295 100 100 0.9 Erik Bedard
Braxton Garrett 7.8 3.8 1.3 9.6% 19.6% .301 90 111 0.9 Brandon Claussen
Dylan Floro 8.1 3.1 0.6 8.1% 21.5% .292 125 80 0.9 Chad Bradford
Daniel Castano 6.0 2.9 1.3 7.3% 15.3% .295 90 111 0.8 Charlie Leibrandt
Antonio Velez 6.3 2.1 1.3 5.4% 16.2% .296 93 108 0.8 Butch Henry
Elieser Hernandez 9.5 2.7 1.7 7.1% 24.9% .291 92 109 0.7 Matt Wise
Richard Bleier 6.5 1.4 0.7 3.9% 17.6% .292 123 81 0.7 Steve Mingori
Zach McCambley 7.7 3.0 1.6 7.7% 19.5% .298 87 114 0.6 Jason Rakers
Anthony Bender 9.6 3.9 0.9 10.0% 24.7% .291 108 92 0.6 Bryce Florie
Austin Pruitt 7.2 2.2 1.2 5.7% 19.0% .298 98 102 0.5 Gil Heredia
Jake Walters 6.9 4.1 1.1 10.2% 17.1% .294 91 110 0.5 Greg Booker
Sean Guenther 7.3 2.7 1.1 6.9% 18.8% .302 101 99 0.5 Dana Allison
Josh A. Smith 7.4 2.9 1.3 7.4% 18.9% .304 90 111 0.3 Joey Hamilton
Luís Madero 6.8 3.5 1.2 8.8% 17.0% .298 87 115 0.3 Steve Parris
Zach Pop 8.6 3.7 1.0 9.4% 21.7% .297 104 96 0.3 Cary Hiles
Louis Head 8.8 3.4 1.2 8.7% 22.8% .288 100 100 0.2 Gene Nelson
Steven Okert 10.2 3.2 1.4 8.2% 26.5% .290 100 100 0.2 Eddie Guardado
Anthony Bass 8.8 3.4 1.3 9.0% 23.1% .282 99 101 0.2 Roger Mason
Jordan Holloway 8.6 6.2 1.1 15.1% 20.9% .288 84 119 0.2 Whitey Moore
Will Stewart 5.6 4.1 1.1 10.1% 13.6% .299 81 123 0.2 Wes Whisler
Josh Roberson 7.6 4.9 0.9 12.1% 18.8% .299 90 111 0.2 Rick Steed
Nick Neidert 6.2 3.9 1.4 9.5% 15.2% .294 81 123 0.2 Steve Cummings
Jake Fishman 7.4 2.9 1.1 7.5% 19.2% .295 97 103 0.2 Erasmo Ramirez
Paul Campbell 6.8 3.3 1.5 8.3% 17.1% .298 83 121 0.1 Darren Balsley
Matthew Kent 5.6 3.0 1.4 7.4% 13.9% .305 82 121 0.1 Lee Guetterman
Cody Poteet 7.4 3.6 1.6 9.0% 18.6% .288 79 126 0.1 Jonathan Hurst
Brandon Leibrandt 6.3 3.6 1.4 8.9% 15.6% .297 79 126 0.0 Brian Mazone
Anthony Maldonado 6.7 2.9 1.3 7.3% 17.1% .295 89 113 0.0 Brian Allen
Brian McKenna 9.0 3.9 1.3 9.8% 23.0% .289 94 106 0.0 Lee Tunnell
Cody Carroll 8.8 4.5 1.0 11.3% 21.9% .304 94 106 0.0 Eric Ludwick
Preston Guilmet 9.3 2.7 1.6 7.0% 24.2% .299 91 110 0.0 Kerry Ligtenberg
Taylor Williams 8.9 4.3 1.3 10.8% 22.0% .302 93 107 0.0 Steve Andrade
Zack Leban 7.2 3.8 0.9 9.5% 18.1% .303 93 107 0.0 Rosman Garcia
Robert Garcia 8.0 4.7 0.9 11.8% 19.9% .301 93 108 0.0 Dan Ricabal
Brett Eibner 7.6 4.2 1.4 10.3% 19.0% .289 87 115 -0.1 Tom Hume
Jackson Rose 7.2 3.2 1.4 8.0% 18.2% .296 87 115 -0.1 Phil Haigler
Tommy Eveld 9.1 3.3 1.5 8.5% 23.4% .291 91 109 -0.1 Paul Mancuso
Andrew Nardi 8.0 4.1 1.1 10.2% 20.0% .298 91 109 -0.1 Bob MacDonald
Jeff Lindgren 5.8 3.4 1.6 8.4% 14.3% .296 77 129 -0.1 Shawn Purdy
Brandon Barker 6.4 3.2 1.7 7.9% 15.9% .296 76 131 -0.1 Jim Wilson
Alexander Guillen 7.6 3.9 1.3 9.7% 19.0% .295 88 114 -0.1 Kirk Bullinger
Tyler Stevens 8.3 4.0 1.4 10.0% 20.9% .295 89 113 -0.1 Matt Ryan
C.J. Carter 7.6 4.3 1.4 10.8% 18.9% .286 87 115 -0.1 Joel Moore
Shawn Morimando 7.2 3.4 1.8 8.5% 17.8% .303 77 131 -0.2 Brian Abraham
Colton Hock 7.2 4.1 1.2 10.2% 18.0% .301 86 117 -0.2 Jeff McCurry
Aneurys Zabala 7.9 4.8 1.1 11.8% 19.3% .297 85 118 -0.3 Rick Greene
Jefry Yan 8.8 6.3 1.1 15.1% 21.1% .297 81 124 -0.3 Jeff Ridgway
Parker Bugg 9.7 4.8 1.7 11.9% 24.1% .292 81 123 -0.3 Marc Deschenes
Bryan Mitchell 7.2 4.7 1.5 11.4% 17.5% .301 76 132 -0.3 Ken Ray
Jorge Guzman 8.5 6.7 1.5 15.7% 20.0% .288 73 137 -0.4 Bart Evans
Jordan Guerrero 7.8 4.5 1.7 11.0% 19.1% .302 77 130 -0.4 Kevin Spicer
Jose Mesa Jr. 6.8 6.0 1.8 14.2% 15.8% .295 63 160 -0.5 Mumba Rivera
Dylan Bice 6.8 4.7 1.4 11.4% 16.5% .294 79 127 -0.5 Greg Bauer
Andrew McInvale 8.5 6.0 1.4 14.3% 20.2% .293 76 132 -0.6 Dennis Kinney
Mason Melotakis 6.2 4.3 1.9 10.4% 14.8% .301 68 147 -0.6 Bryan Clark
Justin Evans 6.7 4.5 1.5 10.9% 16.3% .300 76 132 -0.6 Greg Perschke

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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LightenUpFGmember
3 months ago

This is a somewhat dismal outlook for Jesus Sanchez, who has been touted as a young bat that is going to hit 30+ bombs next year. Even the comp is suspect with Hunter Pence, who at least stole some bases during parts of his career whereas Sanchez does not.

Honestly, I thought ZiPS was going to like him and the rest of the offense a little more. Chisholm, Garcia, Sanchez, Aguilar and Anderson looks like a pretty good core on paper, but sub-20 home run seasons without a lot of on base machines makes for a grim near future. At least this write up is much brighter about the team than it was just a few years ago…

joe_schlabotnik
3 months ago
Reply to  LightenUpFG

completely agree. particularly with sanchez. i thought he looked great last year

kylerkelton
3 months ago
Reply to  LightenUpFG

All of those guys are fine as role players but there’s just no star power in the position player group.

girard
3 months ago
Reply to  kylerkelton

Agreed. I think the team would be crazy not to unload some of their young pitching depth for Bryan Reynolds

sadtrombonemember
3 months ago
Reply to  LightenUpFG

When you’re striking out almost a third of the time you don’t have a lot of room for error. He’ll be the kind of guy who gets expensive fast in arbitration, at least the old version, but without the OBP you’d want. The best case scenario is probably a bit like Teoscar Hernandez (if he runs consistently high BABIPs) or Adam Duvall (if he turns into a plus defender). But don’t hold your breath.

montreal
3 months ago
Reply to  LightenUpFG

Chisholm and Sanchez are expected to sit against lefties. If Sanchez can’t hit lefties then he obviously won’t develop into anywhere near a star.