2022 ZiPS Projections: Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins.

Batters

We’ll get the bad news out of the way first because, well, that’s the order we do these blurbs in. There’s a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. The offensive holes aren’t so deep as to prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping. But the offense is thoroughly uninspiring wherever you look. The lineup is neither good nor particularly young, and as such, it will likely struggle to push the Marlins to be much better than the National League’s 14th-ranked offense in runs scored, Miami’s 2021 mark.

Even more concerning is that the better-performing players are mostly already in their decline phase. Miguel Rojas, Jesús Aguilar, and Jacob Stallings are already on the wrong side of 30 and not the kind of awesome where there’s a lot of room for a soft landing, though Stallings’ glove ought to make him valuable longer than the other two, especially Aguilar. While I hate to discourage the Marlins from investing in free agents, it’s hard to envision Avisaíl García really doing much to improve the team.

ZiPS isn’t that much more optimistic about the future of the lineup than it is the present. Jesús Sánchez is the only position player on the team projected to have at least 10 WAR remaining in his career (Jazz Chisholm Jr. just missed). The computer is understandably quite worried about JJ Bleday. While he destroyed pitchers at Vanderbilt, that was three years ago. He just hasn’t hit in the minor leagues so far and was likely hindered by not playing in real games in 2020. Already 23 with no upper minors experience, it wasn’t a stretch to say that 2021 was a make-or-break type of season, and with a sub-.700 OPS for Double-A Pensacola, it didn’t fall on the good side. His performance in the Arizona Fall League was something, but the AFL also isn’t an exceptionally high level of competition relative to the high minors. Bleday’s not a bust, but he’s got to turn things around very quickly now.

Pitchers

Now we come to the reason ZiPS think the Marlins can approach .500, despite a terrible lineup. Sandy Alcantara is the cream of an impressive comp and 2021 was his coming-out show. He knocked that final walk-per-nine off his walk rate, and ZiPS still thinks he isn’t striking as many batters as he could given his stuff and plate discipline results. His five-year, $56 million contract was a bargain for the Marlins. Don’t grumble about the Ben McDonald comp; Big Ben is arguably one of the most underrated pitchers of the 1990s because of the occasionally popular belief that he disappointed. But 21 career WAR is above the average expectation for any draft pick; it was injuries that derailed his career, not lack of awesomeness.

Similarly, ZiPS anticipates little true regression from Trevor Rogers. Unlike many surging pitcher Rookie of the Year candidates, Rogers actually underperformed his FIP (it’s usually the other way around), and his missed time was due to family-related COVID issues rather than an injury. Pablo López projects as another near-All-Star candidate. And at the back of the rotation, the Marlins have a whole stable of lively arms of all sorts, though many in this group have one big worry, whether it’s injury (Sixto Sánchez), command (Jesús Luzardo), or maybe ZiPS just going too nuts about a bonkers debut (Jake Eder). Miami can easily put together an above-average rotation with arms to spare. If the franchise proves surprisingly willing to splash cash this spring, the offense is a much better target.

The bullpen projects as respectable, though less dominating than the rotation. Led by Dylan Floro, Richard Bleier, and the Tony B’s, nobody’s projected to be a late-inning terror, but they’ll be able to protect most of the occasional leads the offense gives them. If only the Marlins could win games zero-to-negative-one. The projections may underrate the bullpen simply because the depth of the rotation and the various injury concerns among the starters could result in some of those live arms finding at least a temporary home in relief. Frankly, I’d put Luzardo here to iron out his issues, but the team didn’t ask me.

The Marlins could be a really good team if the offense holds up its end of the workload. Unfortunately, that means the Marlins probably won’t be a really good team.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.