2022 ZiPS Projections: Miami Marlins
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins.
Batters
We’ll get the bad news out of the way first because, well, that’s the order we do these blurbs in. There’s a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. The offensive holes aren’t so deep as to prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping. But the offense is thoroughly uninspiring wherever you look. The lineup is neither good nor particularly young, and as such, it will likely struggle to push the Marlins to be much better than the National League’s 14th-ranked offense in runs scored, Miami’s 2021 mark.
Even more concerning is that the better-performing players are mostly already in their decline phase. Miguel Rojas, Jesús Aguilar, and Jacob Stallings are already on the wrong side of 30 and not the kind of awesome where there’s a lot of room for a soft landing, though Stallings’ glove ought to make him valuable longer than the other two, especially Aguilar. While I hate to discourage the Marlins from investing in free agents, it’s hard to envision Avisaíl García really doing much to improve the team.
ZiPS isn’t that much more optimistic about the future of the lineup than it is the present. Jesús Sánchez is the only position player on the team projected to have at least 10 WAR remaining in his career (Jazz Chisholm Jr. just missed). The computer is understandably quite worried about JJ Bleday. While he destroyed pitchers at Vanderbilt, that was three years ago. He just hasn’t hit in the minor leagues so far and was likely hindered by not playing in real games in 2020. Already 23 with no upper minors experience, it wasn’t a stretch to say that 2021 was a make-or-break type of season, and with a sub-.700 OPS for Double-A Pensacola, it didn’t fall on the good side. His performance in the Arizona Fall League was something, but the AFL also isn’t an exceptionally high level of competition relative to the high minors. Bleday’s not a bust, but he’s got to turn things around very quickly now.
Pitchers
Now we come to the reason ZiPS think the Marlins can approach .500, despite a terrible lineup. Sandy Alcantara is the cream of an impressive comp and 2021 was his coming-out show. He knocked that final walk-per-nine off his walk rate, and ZiPS still thinks he isn’t striking as many batters as he could given his stuff and plate discipline results. His five-year, $56 million contract was a bargain for the Marlins. Don’t grumble about the Ben McDonald comp; Big Ben is arguably one of the most underrated pitchers of the 1990s because of the occasionally popular belief that he disappointed. But 21 career WAR is above the average expectation for any draft pick; it was injuries that derailed his career, not lack of awesomeness.
Similarly, ZiPS anticipates little true regression from Trevor Rogers. Unlike many surging pitcher Rookie of the Year candidates, Rogers actually underperformed his FIP (it’s usually the other way around), and his missed time was due to family-related COVID issues rather than an injury. Pablo López projects as another near-All-Star candidate. And at the back of the rotation, the Marlins have a whole stable of lively arms of all sorts, though many in this group have one big worry, whether it’s injury (Sixto Sánchez), command (Jesús Luzardo), or maybe ZiPS just going too nuts about a bonkers debut (Jake Eder). Miami can easily put together an above-average rotation with arms to spare. If the franchise proves surprisingly willing to splash cash this spring, the offense is a much better target.
The bullpen projects as respectable, though less dominating than the rotation. Led by Dylan Floro, Richard Bleier, and the Tony B’s, nobody’s projected to be a late-inning terror, but they’ll be able to protect most of the occasional leads the offense gives them. If only the Marlins could win games zero-to-negative-one. The projections may underrate the bullpen simply because the depth of the rotation and the various injury concerns among the starters could result in some of those live arms finding at least a temporary home in relief. Frankly, I’d put Luzardo here to iron out his issues, but the team didn’t ask me.
The Marlins could be a really good team if the offense holds up its end of the workload. Unfortunately, that means the Marlins probably won’t be a really good team.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miguel Rojas | R | 33 | SS | 527 | 483 | 56 | 129 | 25 | 2 | 8 | 47 | 34 | 68 | 11 | 4 |
Jacob Stallings | R | 32 | C | 376 | 336 | 34 | 83 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 40 | 34 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
Brian Anderson | R | 29 | 3B | 427 | 376 | 46 | 95 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 39 | 100 | 5 | 1 |
Joey Wendle | L | 32 | 3B | 463 | 425 | 60 | 114 | 26 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 24 | 91 | 9 | 5 |
Jesús Sánchez | L | 24 | RF | 459 | 417 | 51 | 102 | 15 | 3 | 19 | 58 | 34 | 124 | 2 | 2 |
Avisaíl García | R | 31 | RF | 509 | 463 | 59 | 118 | 21 | 1 | 20 | 66 | 32 | 122 | 7 | 4 |
Jesús Aguilar | R | 32 | 1B | 457 | 402 | 48 | 102 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 75 | 44 | 93 | 0 | 0 |
Lewin Díaz | L | 25 | 1B | 476 | 442 | 52 | 107 | 20 | 2 | 20 | 55 | 26 | 108 | 1 | 0 |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | L | 24 | 2B | 511 | 464 | 66 | 106 | 16 | 6 | 19 | 55 | 38 | 161 | 20 | 8 |
Garrett Cooper | R | 31 | RF | 329 | 291 | 39 | 76 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 39 | 32 | 87 | 1 | 1 |
Jon Berti | R | 32 | 3B | 309 | 268 | 42 | 64 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 33 | 70 | 13 | 5 |
Bryson Brigman | R | 27 | SS | 451 | 407 | 43 | 95 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 83 | 7 | 4 |
Bryan De La Cruz | R | 25 | RF | 539 | 493 | 58 | 133 | 21 | 3 | 14 | 50 | 36 | 123 | 3 | 4 |
Griffin Conine | L | 24 | RF | 456 | 418 | 46 | 90 | 13 | 1 | 23 | 56 | 32 | 184 | 2 | 1 |
Isan Díaz | L | 26 | 3B | 453 | 401 | 51 | 89 | 17 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 48 | 121 | 4 | 3 |
Nick Fortes | R | 25 | C | 389 | 349 | 48 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 9 | 38 | 28 | 73 | 4 | 1 |
Alex Jackson | R | 26 | C | 311 | 276 | 33 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 22 | 123 | 1 | 0 |
JJ Bleday | L | 24 | RF | 444 | 397 | 54 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 13 | 41 | 41 | 105 | 3 | 2 |
Monte Harrison | R | 26 | CF | 351 | 317 | 39 | 64 | 10 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 26 | 137 | 20 | 4 |
Peyton Burdick | R | 25 | CF | 456 | 399 | 48 | 81 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 42 | 47 | 140 | 5 | 4 |
Dustin Fowler | L | 27 | CF | 453 | 421 | 48 | 98 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 43 | 24 | 130 | 8 | 2 |
Victor Victor Mesa | R | 25 | CF | 413 | 384 | 39 | 89 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 20 | 78 | 8 | 2 |
Charles Leblanc | R | 26 | 3B | 449 | 411 | 49 | 87 | 14 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 34 | 137 | 4 | 2 |
José Devers | L | 22 | SS | 145 | 132 | 16 | 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 29 | 1 | 0 |
Payton Henry | R | 25 | C | 374 | 340 | 35 | 68 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 29 | 22 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
Brian Navarreto | R | 27 | C | 224 | 206 | 20 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 11 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
Deven Marrero | R | 31 | 3B | 313 | 285 | 35 | 58 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 25 | 90 | 4 | 1 |
Luis Marté | R | 28 | SS | 276 | 260 | 26 | 56 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 11 | 71 | 6 | 2 |
Joe Panik | L | 31 | 3B | 360 | 326 | 33 | 78 | 14 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 28 | 44 | 3 | 1 |
Luis Aviles Jr. | R | 27 | SS | 328 | 301 | 30 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 19 | 97 | 13 | 3 |
Troy Johnston | L | 25 | 1B | 481 | 440 | 63 | 103 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 46 | 34 | 113 | 3 | 1 |
Joe Dunand | R | 26 | 3B | 400 | 361 | 37 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 31 | 25 | 119 | 0 | 0 |
Erik González | R | 30 | 3B | 265 | 250 | 23 | 58 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 57 | 3 | 2 |
Lorenzo Quintana | R | 33 | 1B | 308 | 286 | 32 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 15 | 70 | 2 | 2 |
Santiago Chávez | R | 26 | C | 219 | 203 | 13 | 33 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
Tevin Mitchell | R | 25 | LF | 108 | 96 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 37 | 1 | 1 |
Lewis Brinson | R | 28 | LF | 438 | 406 | 40 | 87 | 17 | 2 | 11 | 44 | 25 | 124 | 6 | 2 |
Galli Cribbs Jr. | L | 29 | SS | 232 | 211 | 18 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 88 | 3 | 1 |
Devin Hairston | R | 26 | SS | 346 | 318 | 29 | 55 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 23 | 119 | 3 | 2 |
Demetrius Sims | R | 26 | SS | 346 | 310 | 32 | 56 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 26 | 125 | 10 | 5 |
Chris Chinea | R | 28 | 1B | 244 | 229 | 23 | 50 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 12 | 64 | 0 | 1 |
Ray-Patrick Didder | R | 27 | SS | 385 | 342 | 40 | 64 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 31 | 113 | 13 | 5 |
Tristan Pompey | B | 25 | LF | 202 | 181 | 25 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 18 | 65 | 1 | 1 |
Brian Miller | L | 26 | CF | 484 | 447 | 51 | 108 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 28 | 98 | 24 | 7 |
Cobie Vance | R | 24 | 3B | 440 | 397 | 45 | 84 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 31 | 91 | 6 | 0 |
Justin Twine | R | 26 | 2B | 326 | 301 | 27 | 57 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 112 | 8 | 2 |
Will Banfield | R | 22 | C | 347 | 322 | 33 | 54 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 28 | 18 | 112 | 1 | 0 |
Zack Kone | R | 25 | 3B | 258 | 239 | 22 | 42 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 91 | 3 | 1 |
Davis Bradshaw | L | 24 | LF | 281 | 262 | 30 | 58 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 58 | 4 | 4 |
Lazaro Alonso | L | 27 | 1B | 361 | 319 | 36 | 62 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 28 | 39 | 127 | 1 | 1 |
Riley Mahan | L | 26 | 2B | 382 | 350 | 33 | 66 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 23 | 136 | 2 | 2 |
J.D. Orr | L | 25 | LF | 284 | 258 | 21 | 57 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 63 | 13 | 7 |
Corey Bird | L | 26 | RF | 327 | 298 | 29 | 64 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 73 | 11 | 2 |
Jerar Encarnación | R | 24 | RF | 429 | 396 | 41 | 79 | 14 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 28 | 151 | 5 | 4 |
J.D. Osborne | R | 26 | 1B | 254 | 234 | 24 | 44 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 21 | 13 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | RC/27 | Def | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miguel Rojas | .267 | .321 | .377 | 90 | .110 | .297 | 4.5 | 6 | 2.4 | Edgar Renteria |
Jacob Stallings | .247 | .320 | .363 | 86 | .116 | .306 | 4.2 | 11 | 2.4 | Geno Petralli |
Brian Anderson | .253 | .337 | .420 | 105 | .168 | .309 | 5.2 | 0 | 2.0 | Pinky Higgins |
Joey Wendle | .268 | .320 | .412 | 98 | .144 | .323 | 4.8 | 2 | 1.7 | Jim Davenport |
Jesús Sánchez | .245 | .307 | .432 | 99 | .187 | .303 | 4.7 | 6 | 1.6 | Hunter Pence |
Avisail Garcia | .255 | .314 | .434 | 101 | .179 | .305 | 4.9 | 1 | 1.3 | Jose Guillen |
Jesús Aguilar | .254 | .326 | .433 | 105 | .179 | .289 | 5.1 | 1 | 1.2 | Paul Konerko |
Lewin Díaz | .242 | .288 | .432 | 93 | .190 | .277 | 4.5 | 7 | 1.1 | Matt Luke |
Jazz Chisholm Jr. | .228 | .292 | .412 | 89 | .183 | .306 | 4.3 | -3 | 1.0 | Andy Fox |
Garrett Cooper | .261 | .343 | .423 | 108 | .162 | .337 | 5.3 | -2 | 1.0 | Keith Moreland |
Jon Berti | .239 | .331 | .343 | 85 | .104 | .306 | 4.2 | 1 | 0.9 | Esteban German |
Bryson Brigman | .233 | .295 | .327 | 70 | .093 | .282 | 3.4 | 5 | 0.9 | Eric Martins |
Bryan De La Cruz | .270 | .321 | .410 | 98 | .140 | .334 | 4.7 | -2 | 0.8 | Matt Murton |
Griffin Conine | .215 | .279 | .416 | 86 | .201 | .318 | 4.0 | 3 | 0.6 | Joe Vitiello |
Isan Díaz | .222 | .308 | .349 | 79 | .127 | .293 | 3.7 | 0 | 0.5 | Rodney Nye |
Nick Fortes | .226 | .295 | .358 | 77 | .132 | .262 | 3.7 | -3 | 0.5 | Charlie Moore |
Alex Jackson | .181 | .268 | .366 | 71 | .185 | .264 | 3.3 | 1 | 0.4 | Jim Horner |
JJ Bleday | .222 | .296 | .373 | 81 | .151 | .269 | 3.8 | 3 | 0.3 | Chris Richard |
Monte Harrison | .202 | .272 | .344 | 67 | .142 | .314 | 3.6 | 1 | 0.3 | Damon Mashore |
Peyton Burdick | .203 | .298 | .373 | 82 | .170 | .267 | 3.7 | -5 | 0.2 | Kevin Belcher |
Dustin Fowler | .233 | .279 | .366 | 74 | .133 | .308 | 3.7 | -1 | 0.2 | Alexis Gomez |
Victor Victor Mesa | .232 | .273 | .289 | 54 | .057 | .284 | 2.9 | 9 | 0.2 | Jesus Campos |
Charles Leblanc | .212 | .272 | .328 | 63 | .117 | .292 | 3.1 | 4 | 0.1 | Bert Pena |
José Devers | .227 | .285 | .311 | 63 | .083 | .284 | 3.2 | -1 | -0.1 | Chris Gomez |
Payton Henry | .200 | .265 | .312 | 57 | .112 | .294 | 2.7 | 2 | -0.1 | Alan Probst |
Brian Navarreto | .204 | .249 | .330 | 56 | .126 | .243 | 2.8 | 1 | -0.1 | Scott Servais |
Deven Marrero | .204 | .269 | .316 | 59 | .112 | .271 | 3.0 | 2 | -0.2 | Dave Matranga |
Luis Marté | .215 | .248 | .296 | 48 | .081 | .281 | 2.6 | 3 | -0.2 | John Alva |
Joe Panik | .239 | .304 | .325 | 72 | .086 | .266 | 3.5 | -4 | -0.3 | Johnny Burnett |
Luis Aviles Jr. | .203 | .252 | .332 | 58 | .130 | .270 | 3.1 | -2 | -0.4 | Kelly Dransfeldt |
Troy Johnston | .234 | .294 | .348 | 74 | .114 | .293 | 3.6 | 1 | -0.4 | Michael Paulk |
Joe Dunand | .194 | .258 | .296 | 51 | .102 | .268 | 2.6 | 5 | -0.4 | Randy Blood |
Erik González | .232 | .265 | .316 | 58 | .084 | .289 | 2.9 | 0 | -0.5 | Jace Brewer |
Lorenzo Quintana | .238 | .287 | .374 | 79 | .136 | .288 | 3.7 | -3 | -0.5 | Bill Stein |
Santiago Chávez | .163 | .220 | .232 | 24 | .069 | .240 | 1.7 | 5 | -0.6 | Gary Tremblay |
Tevin Mitchell | .156 | .243 | .271 | 40 | .115 | .228 | 2.0 | -1 | -0.6 | Juan Ballara |
Lewis Brinson | .214 | .268 | .347 | 66 | .133 | .280 | 3.2 | 1 | -0.6 | John Giudice |
Galli Cribbs Jr. | .166 | .230 | .237 | 28 | .071 | .273 | 1.8 | 3 | -0.7 | Les Dennis |
Devin Hairston | .173 | .230 | .248 | 31 | .075 | .262 | 1.8 | 7 | -0.8 | Lou Benbow |
Demetrius Sims | .181 | .258 | .271 | 45 | .090 | .283 | 2.3 | 0 | -0.8 | Brett King |
Chris Chinea | .218 | .262 | .323 | 59 | .105 | .281 | 2.8 | 1 | -0.8 | Brian Becker |
Ray-Patrick Didder | .187 | .269 | .281 | 51 | .094 | .263 | 2.6 | -3 | -0.8 | Kirk Mendenhall |
Tristan Pompey | .193 | .269 | .282 | 51 | .088 | .283 | 2.5 | -1 | -0.8 | Gerad Cawhorn |
Brian Miller | .242 | .289 | .315 | 65 | .074 | .303 | 3.5 | -7 | -0.8 | Chris Frey |
Cobie Vance | .212 | .276 | .287 | 55 | .076 | .265 | 2.9 | -2 | -0.9 | Joe Kerrigan |
Justin Twine | .189 | .235 | .276 | 39 | .086 | .286 | 2.3 | 3 | -0.9 | Enohel Polanco |
Will Banfield | .168 | .217 | .261 | 30 | .093 | .235 | 1.9 | 5 | -0.9 | Jose Molina |
Zack Kone | .176 | .236 | .251 | 33 | .075 | .269 | 2.0 | 2 | -1.0 | Jake Wald |
Davis Bradshaw | .221 | .265 | .294 | 53 | .073 | .274 | 2.5 | 0 | -1.1 | Gary Trammell |
Lazaro Alonso | .194 | .285 | .304 | 61 | .110 | .293 | 2.9 | -2 | -1.2 | Tate Seefried |
Riley Mahan | .189 | .245 | .291 | 46 | .103 | .285 | 2.3 | 0 | -1.2 | Mark Farris |
J.D. Orr | .221 | .292 | .291 | 60 | .070 | .285 | 2.9 | -6 | -1.3 | Buck McNabb |
Corey Bird | .215 | .279 | .315 | 62 | .101 | .268 | 3.3 | -8 | -1.4 | Kevin O’Connor |
Jerar Encarnación | .199 | .257 | .323 | 57 | .124 | .291 | 2.7 | -2 | -1.6 | Jon Zeringue |
J.D. Osborne | .188 | .244 | .286 | 44 | .098 | .264 | 2.4 | -5 | -1.7 | Ray Hansen |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sandy Alcantara | R | 26 | 13 | 9 | 3.43 | 32 | 32 | 194.3 | 167 | 74 | 18 | 58 | 194 | 3.42 |
Trevor Rogers | L | 24 | 10 | 7 | 3.38 | 28 | 28 | 141.0 | 119 | 53 | 15 | 49 | 166 | 3.38 |
Pablo López | R | 26 | 7 | 6 | 3.66 | 23 | 23 | 113.0 | 104 | 46 | 13 | 28 | 113 | 3.63 |
Sixto Sánchez | R | 23 | 7 | 6 | 3.64 | 18 | 18 | 99.0 | 96 | 40 | 9 | 24 | 81 | 3.60 |
Max Meyer | R | 23 | 5 | 6 | 4.35 | 24 | 24 | 109.7 | 108 | 53 | 12 | 49 | 97 | 4.31 |
Jesús Luzardo | L | 24 | 9 | 10 | 4.50 | 33 | 26 | 130.0 | 129 | 65 | 20 | 55 | 134 | 4.53 |
Edward Cabrera | R | 24 | 5 | 6 | 4.36 | 21 | 21 | 88.7 | 81 | 43 | 12 | 44 | 97 | 4.44 |
Jake Eder | L | 23 | 4 | 4 | 4.22 | 16 | 16 | 70.3 | 65 | 33 | 9 | 31 | 72 | 4.25 |
Braxton Garrett | L | 24 | 6 | 7 | 4.70 | 26 | 25 | 115.0 | 118 | 60 | 16 | 49 | 100 | 4.68 |
Dylan Floro | R | 31 | 6 | 4 | 3.37 | 62 | 0 | 58.7 | 53 | 22 | 4 | 20 | 53 | 3.33 |
Daniel Castano | L | 27 | 5 | 6 | 4.68 | 22 | 17 | 100.0 | 108 | 52 | 14 | 32 | 67 | 4.77 |
Antonio Velez | L | 25 | 4 | 5 | 4.57 | 24 | 14 | 90.7 | 98 | 46 | 13 | 21 | 63 | 4.51 |
Elieser Hernandez | R | 27 | 3 | 4 | 4.62 | 23 | 19 | 89.7 | 86 | 46 | 17 | 27 | 95 | 4.63 |
Richard Bleier | L | 35 | 2 | 2 | 3.44 | 57 | 0 | 49.7 | 49 | 19 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 3.44 |
Zach McCambley | R | 23 | 6 | 8 | 4.83 | 21 | 21 | 98.7 | 104 | 53 | 17 | 33 | 84 | 4.87 |
Anthony Bender | R | 27 | 3 | 3 | 3.90 | 52 | 2 | 60.0 | 52 | 26 | 6 | 26 | 64 | 3.90 |
Austin Pruitt | R | 32 | 3 | 3 | 4.33 | 27 | 5 | 62.3 | 64 | 30 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 4.06 |
Jake Walters | R | 26 | 3 | 4 | 4.66 | 19 | 9 | 65.7 | 67 | 34 | 8 | 30 | 50 | 4.79 |
Sean Guenther | L | 26 | 3 | 3 | 4.18 | 38 | 3 | 66.7 | 69 | 31 | 8 | 20 | 54 | 4.20 |
Josh A. Smith | R | 34 | 3 | 3 | 4.69 | 18 | 8 | 55.7 | 59 | 29 | 8 | 18 | 46 | 4.53 |
Luís Madero | R | 25 | 5 | 7 | 4.88 | 24 | 11 | 79.3 | 84 | 43 | 11 | 31 | 60 | 4.83 |
Zach Pop | R | 25 | 1 | 1 | 4.07 | 50 | 1 | 55.3 | 52 | 25 | 6 | 23 | 53 | 4.30 |
Louis Head | R | 32 | 1 | 1 | 4.24 | 45 | 2 | 51.0 | 47 | 24 | 7 | 19 | 50 | 4.36 |
Steven Okert | L | 30 | 3 | 3 | 4.21 | 47 | 1 | 51.3 | 46 | 24 | 8 | 18 | 58 | 4.23 |
Anthony Bass | R | 34 | 5 | 5 | 4.25 | 61 | 1 | 55.0 | 50 | 26 | 8 | 21 | 54 | 4.36 |
Jordan Holloway | R | 26 | 5 | 7 | 5.04 | 24 | 15 | 75.0 | 69 | 42 | 9 | 52 | 72 | 5.02 |
Will Stewart | L | 24 | 6 | 8 | 5.20 | 20 | 20 | 98.7 | 109 | 57 | 12 | 45 | 61 | 5.04 |
Josh Roberson | R | 26 | 3 | 3 | 4.71 | 26 | 6 | 49.7 | 49 | 26 | 5 | 27 | 42 | 4.61 |
Nick Neidert | R | 25 | 5 | 7 | 5.21 | 21 | 19 | 93.3 | 102 | 54 | 15 | 40 | 64 | 5.38 |
Jake Fishman | L | 27 | 2 | 3 | 4.37 | 37 | 1 | 55.7 | 56 | 27 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 4.29 |
Paul Campbell | R | 26 | 5 | 7 | 5.11 | 21 | 11 | 74.0 | 80 | 42 | 12 | 27 | 56 | 5.03 |
Matthew Kent | L | 29 | 5 | 7 | 5.13 | 26 | 12 | 100.0 | 116 | 57 | 15 | 33 | 62 | 5.06 |
Cody Poteet | R | 27 | 5 | 7 | 5.34 | 17 | 17 | 87.7 | 91 | 52 | 16 | 35 | 72 | 5.24 |
Brandon Leibrandt | L | 29 | 5 | 7 | 5.33 | 20 | 16 | 77.7 | 85 | 46 | 12 | 31 | 54 | 5.15 |
Anthony Maldonado | R | 24 | 3 | 4 | 4.76 | 21 | 2 | 28.3 | 30 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 4.59 |
Brian McKenna | R | 29 | 1 | 1 | 4.50 | 11 | 0 | 14.0 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 14 | 4.54 |
Cody Carroll | R | 29 | 1 | 1 | 4.50 | 34 | 0 | 36.0 | 35 | 18 | 4 | 18 | 35 | 4.26 |
Preston Guilmet | R | 34 | 3 | 3 | 4.65 | 33 | 1 | 50.3 | 50 | 26 | 9 | 15 | 52 | 4.45 |
Taylor Williams | R | 30 | 2 | 2 | 4.54 | 36 | 0 | 41.7 | 41 | 21 | 6 | 20 | 41 | 4.74 |
Zack Leban | R | 26 | 1 | 2 | 4.53 | 37 | 0 | 47.7 | 49 | 24 | 5 | 20 | 38 | 4.33 |
Robert Garcia | L | 26 | 3 | 4 | 4.56 | 34 | 0 | 49.3 | 48 | 25 | 5 | 26 | 44 | 4.48 |
Brett Eibner | R | 33 | 1 | 2 | 4.85 | 11 | 0 | 13.0 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 5.10 |
Jackson Rose | R | 26 | 3 | 4 | 4.88 | 26 | 2 | 62.7 | 66 | 34 | 10 | 22 | 50 | 4.90 |
Tommy Eveld | R | 28 | 4 | 4 | 4.63 | 40 | 0 | 46.7 | 45 | 24 | 8 | 17 | 47 | 4.62 |
Andrew Nardi | L | 23 | 3 | 4 | 4.62 | 29 | 0 | 48.7 | 48 | 25 | 6 | 22 | 43 | 4.56 |
Jeff Lindgren | R | 25 | 5 | 8 | 5.46 | 20 | 17 | 90.7 | 103 | 55 | 16 | 34 | 58 | 5.45 |
Brandon Barker | R | 29 | 2 | 3 | 5.53 | 15 | 11 | 53.7 | 60 | 33 | 10 | 19 | 38 | 5.42 |
Alexander Guillen | R | 26 | 2 | 2 | 4.82 | 34 | 1 | 56.0 | 57 | 30 | 8 | 24 | 47 | 4.81 |
Tyler Stevens | R | 26 | 3 | 3 | 4.76 | 33 | 0 | 45.3 | 45 | 24 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 4.86 |
C.J. Carter | R | 25 | 2 | 3 | 4.86 | 24 | 0 | 33.3 | 33 | 18 | 5 | 16 | 28 | 4.98 |
Shawn Morimando | L | 29 | 3 | 4 | 5.53 | 20 | 15 | 86.3 | 97 | 53 | 17 | 33 | 69 | 5.43 |
Colton Hock | R | 26 | 3 | 4 | 4.94 | 42 | 1 | 54.7 | 57 | 30 | 7 | 25 | 44 | 4.77 |
Aneurys Zabala | R | 25 | 3 | 4 | 4.98 | 36 | 0 | 47.0 | 47 | 26 | 6 | 25 | 41 | 4.82 |
Jefry Yan | L | 25 | 0 | 1 | 5.23 | 22 | 0 | 32.7 | 31 | 19 | 4 | 23 | 32 | 5.11 |
Parker Bugg | R | 27 | 3 | 5 | 5.20 | 35 | 3 | 64.0 | 61 | 37 | 12 | 34 | 69 | 5.20 |
Bryan Mitchell | R | 31 | 2 | 3 | 5.58 | 27 | 7 | 61.3 | 66 | 38 | 10 | 32 | 49 | 5.41 |
Jorge Guzman | R | 26 | 4 | 6 | 5.81 | 19 | 14 | 74.3 | 72 | 48 | 12 | 55 | 70 | 5.82 |
Jordan Guerrero | R | 25 | 2 | 4 | 5.50 | 29 | 3 | 54.0 | 58 | 33 | 10 | 27 | 47 | 5.51 |
Jose Mesa Jr. | R | 28 | 1 | 1 | 6.75 | 14 | 3 | 25.3 | 28 | 19 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 6.38 |
Dylan Bice | R | 24 | 3 | 5 | 5.37 | 39 | 0 | 52.0 | 55 | 31 | 8 | 27 | 39 | 5.41 |
Andrew McInvale | R | 25 | 3 | 5 | 5.56 | 34 | 0 | 43.7 | 43 | 27 | 7 | 29 | 41 | 5.58 |
Mason Melotakis | L | 31 | 1 | 2 | 6.21 | 22 | 0 | 29.0 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 6.15 |
Justin Evans | R | 25 | 2 | 4 | 5.59 | 35 | 0 | 48.3 | 53 | 30 | 8 | 24 | 36 | 5.52 |
Player | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% | BABIP | ERA+ | ERA- | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sandy Alcantara | 9.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 7.2% | 24.1% | .284 | 123 | 81 | 4.3 | Ben McDonald |
Trevor Rogers | 10.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 8.3% | 28.2% | .295 | 125 | 80 | 3.2 | Britt Burns |
Pablo López | 9.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 5.9% | 24.0% | .294 | 115 | 87 | 2.2 | Larry Christenson |
Sixto Sánchez | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 5.8% | 19.5% | .294 | 116 | 86 | 2.0 | Tom Bradley |
Max Meyer | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 10.1% | 20.1% | .300 | 97 | 103 | 1.3 | Joe Bitker |
Jesús Luzardo | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 9.6% | 23.5% | .306 | 94 | 106 | 1.2 | Mark Guthrie |
Edward Cabrera | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 11.3% | 24.8% | .297 | 97 | 103 | 1.0 | Doug Bochtler |
Jake Eder | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 10.2% | 23.6% | .295 | 100 | 100 | 0.9 | Erik Bedard |
Braxton Garrett | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 9.6% | 19.6% | .301 | 90 | 111 | 0.9 | Brandon Claussen |
Dylan Floro | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 8.1% | 21.5% | .292 | 125 | 80 | 0.9 | Chad Bradford |
Daniel Castano | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 7.3% | 15.3% | .295 | 90 | 111 | 0.8 | Charlie Leibrandt |
Antonio Velez | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 5.4% | 16.2% | .296 | 93 | 108 | 0.8 | Butch Henry |
Elieser Hernandez | 9.5 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 7.1% | 24.9% | .291 | 92 | 109 | 0.7 | Matt Wise |
Richard Bleier | 6.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 3.9% | 17.6% | .292 | 123 | 81 | 0.7 | Steve Mingori |
Zach McCambley | 7.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 7.7% | 19.5% | .298 | 87 | 114 | 0.6 | Jason Rakers |
Anthony Bender | 9.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 10.0% | 24.7% | .291 | 108 | 92 | 0.6 | Bryce Florie |
Austin Pruitt | 7.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 5.7% | 19.0% | .298 | 98 | 102 | 0.5 | Gil Heredia |
Jake Walters | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 10.2% | 17.1% | .294 | 91 | 110 | 0.5 | Greg Booker |
Sean Guenther | 7.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6.9% | 18.8% | .302 | 101 | 99 | 0.5 | Dana Allison |
Josh A. Smith | 7.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 7.4% | 18.9% | .304 | 90 | 111 | 0.3 | Joey Hamilton |
Luís Madero | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 8.8% | 17.0% | .298 | 87 | 115 | 0.3 | Steve Parris |
Zach Pop | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 9.4% | 21.7% | .297 | 104 | 96 | 0.3 | Cary Hiles |
Louis Head | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 8.7% | 22.8% | .288 | 100 | 100 | 0.2 | Gene Nelson |
Steven Okert | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 8.2% | 26.5% | .290 | 100 | 100 | 0.2 | Eddie Guardado |
Anthony Bass | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 9.0% | 23.1% | .282 | 99 | 101 | 0.2 | Roger Mason |
Jordan Holloway | 8.6 | 6.2 | 1.1 | 15.1% | 20.9% | .288 | 84 | 119 | 0.2 | Whitey Moore |
Will Stewart | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 10.1% | 13.6% | .299 | 81 | 123 | 0.2 | Wes Whisler |
Josh Roberson | 7.6 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 12.1% | 18.8% | .299 | 90 | 111 | 0.2 | Rick Steed |
Nick Neidert | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 9.5% | 15.2% | .294 | 81 | 123 | 0.2 | Steve Cummings |
Jake Fishman | 7.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 7.5% | 19.2% | .295 | 97 | 103 | 0.2 | Erasmo Ramirez |
Paul Campbell | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 8.3% | 17.1% | .298 | 83 | 121 | 0.1 | Darren Balsley |
Matthew Kent | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 7.4% | 13.9% | .305 | 82 | 121 | 0.1 | Lee Guetterman |
Cody Poteet | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 9.0% | 18.6% | .288 | 79 | 126 | 0.1 | Jonathan Hurst |
Brandon Leibrandt | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 8.9% | 15.6% | .297 | 79 | 126 | 0.0 | Brian Mazone |
Anthony Maldonado | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 7.3% | 17.1% | .295 | 89 | 113 | 0.0 | Brian Allen |
Brian McKenna | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 9.8% | 23.0% | .289 | 94 | 106 | 0.0 | Lee Tunnell |
Cody Carroll | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 11.3% | 21.9% | .304 | 94 | 106 | 0.0 | Eric Ludwick |
Preston Guilmet | 9.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 7.0% | 24.2% | .299 | 91 | 110 | 0.0 | Kerry Ligtenberg |
Taylor Williams | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 10.8% | 22.0% | .302 | 93 | 107 | 0.0 | Steve Andrade |
Zack Leban | 7.2 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 9.5% | 18.1% | .303 | 93 | 107 | 0.0 | Rosman Garcia |
Robert Garcia | 8.0 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 11.8% | 19.9% | .301 | 93 | 108 | 0.0 | Dan Ricabal |
Brett Eibner | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 10.3% | 19.0% | .289 | 87 | 115 | -0.1 | Tom Hume |
Jackson Rose | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 8.0% | 18.2% | .296 | 87 | 115 | -0.1 | Phil Haigler |
Tommy Eveld | 9.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 8.5% | 23.4% | .291 | 91 | 109 | -0.1 | Paul Mancuso |
Andrew Nardi | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 10.2% | 20.0% | .298 | 91 | 109 | -0.1 | Bob MacDonald |
Jeff Lindgren | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 8.4% | 14.3% | .296 | 77 | 129 | -0.1 | Shawn Purdy |
Brandon Barker | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 7.9% | 15.9% | .296 | 76 | 131 | -0.1 | Jim Wilson |
Alexander Guillen | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 9.7% | 19.0% | .295 | 88 | 114 | -0.1 | Kirk Bullinger |
Tyler Stevens | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 10.0% | 20.9% | .295 | 89 | 113 | -0.1 | Matt Ryan |
C.J. Carter | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 10.8% | 18.9% | .286 | 87 | 115 | -0.1 | Joel Moore |
Shawn Morimando | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 8.5% | 17.8% | .303 | 77 | 131 | -0.2 | Brian Abraham |
Colton Hock | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 10.2% | 18.0% | .301 | 86 | 117 | -0.2 | Jeff McCurry |
Aneurys Zabala | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.1 | 11.8% | 19.3% | .297 | 85 | 118 | -0.3 | Rick Greene |
Jefry Yan | 8.8 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 15.1% | 21.1% | .297 | 81 | 124 | -0.3 | Jeff Ridgway |
Parker Bugg | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 11.9% | 24.1% | .292 | 81 | 123 | -0.3 | Marc Deschenes |
Bryan Mitchell | 7.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 11.4% | 17.5% | .301 | 76 | 132 | -0.3 | Ken Ray |
Jorge Guzman | 8.5 | 6.7 | 1.5 | 15.7% | 20.0% | .288 | 73 | 137 | -0.4 | Bart Evans |
Jordan Guerrero | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 11.0% | 19.1% | .302 | 77 | 130 | -0.4 | Kevin Spicer |
Jose Mesa Jr. | 6.8 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 14.2% | 15.8% | .295 | 63 | 160 | -0.5 | Mumba Rivera |
Dylan Bice | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 11.4% | 16.5% | .294 | 79 | 127 | -0.5 | Greg Bauer |
Andrew McInvale | 8.5 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 14.3% | 20.2% | .293 | 76 | 132 | -0.6 | Dennis Kinney |
Mason Melotakis | 6.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 10.4% | 14.8% | .301 | 68 | 147 | -0.6 | Bryan Clark |
Justin Evans | 6.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 10.9% | 16.3% | .300 | 76 | 132 | -0.6 | Greg Perschke |
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.
ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
This is a somewhat dismal outlook for Jesus Sanchez, who has been touted as a young bat that is going to hit 30+ bombs next year. Even the comp is suspect with Hunter Pence, who at least stole some bases during parts of his career whereas Sanchez does not.
Honestly, I thought ZiPS was going to like him and the rest of the offense a little more. Chisholm, Garcia, Sanchez, Aguilar and Anderson looks like a pretty good core on paper, but sub-20 home run seasons without a lot of on base machines makes for a grim near future. At least this write up is much brighter about the team than it was just a few years ago…
completely agree. particularly with sanchez. i thought he looked great last year
All of those guys are fine as role players but there’s just no star power in the position player group.
Agreed. I think the team would be crazy not to unload some of their young pitching depth for Bryan Reynolds
When you’re striking out almost a third of the time you don’t have a lot of room for error. He’ll be the kind of guy who gets expensive fast in arbitration, at least the old version, but without the OBP you’d want. The best case scenario is probably a bit like Teoscar Hernandez (if he runs consistently high BABIPs) or Adam Duvall (if he turns into a plus defender). But don’t hold your breath.
Chisholm and Sanchez are expected to sit against lefties. If Sanchez can’t hit lefties then he obviously won’t develop into anywhere near a star.