2022 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

This is one case where just taking a glance at the depth chart graphic could lend the wrong impression. In the below graphic, two of the four most valuable ZiPS-projected hitters have their contributions split among multiple positions, with lesser players bringing down their overall numbers, and a third isn’t even on the depth chart. What’s more, the Mariners have reasonably good depth, especially offensively, and while the ceiling on most of the lineup isn’t exceptionally high, I do think they have a pretty high floor. I also don’t believe that Evan White has anywhere near enough remaining rope to get 300 plate appearances in 2022 if he matches his projection below.

Suffice it to say, ZiPS is convinced by Julio Rodríguez now. His 2019 performance for West Virginia in the Sally League was tremendous given his age at the time (18), but the low minors are still the low minors. 2020 cost him a year of development, but now that he has hit farther up the ladder, while still being young for the levels he traversed in 2021, there aren’t any statistical reasons to quibble. ZiPS doesn’t project three-win seasons from players this young on a whim. The complete list of hitters age 22-and-under who have projected for 3 WAR since I started making WAR part of the standard projections is below; note that the 2020 projections are pro-rated for the shortened season:

ZiPS actually under-projected this group by about 0.2 WAR per year. There’s only one player you can really call a bust, Gregory Polanco, but even he was an average player for several years, which isn’t exactly Brien Taylor territory. Most of these players are now fabulously wealthy men netting lots and lots of wins for their respective clubs. Rodríguez may join them soon.

Seattle’s lineup is generally solid but unexciting, which is one reason I hope Rodríguez pushes his way to the majors quickly, as few of the players on the team have anywhere near his dizzying upside. (I should also note that I’m more optimistic about Jarred Kelenic than the computer is.) The Mariners are in a tricky position here because while the solid nature of their group of hitters is a welcome feature, a team with two-win players everywhere is also a tricky one to upgrade in the short-term. I’d love to see Seattle sign Freddie Freeman, moving Ty France to an outfield corner (with positional flexibility) and Mitch Haniger to DH, or bring in Kris Bryant to take over third base, even with Abraham Toro on the roster. But I suspect that if they’re planning something that big it’s more likely to be targeted at pitching. Speaking of which…

Pitchers

Robbie Ray was an excellent pickup, giving the team the kind of legitimate ace they’ve been sorely lacking since the decline of King Félix. If the projections are to be believed, Seattle also has good choices with which to populate the middle and back parts of the rotation, with some perfectly reasonable options should injuries strike next year. George Kirby, Brandon Williamson, and Matt Brash all look like they can contribute imminently, and it’s not just the computer that likes them; my colleagues Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein ranked Kirby as baseball’s No. 41 prospect in their September Top 100 prospect update, with the other two players I mentioned in the team’s top 10. Emerson Hancock ranking lower in the projections isn’t an expression of the algorithm’s dislike, but simply a reflection of the fact that he only has 44 2/3 professional innings under his belt.

What the Mariners still need if they expect to be a contender — and I really think they can be — is someone to pair with Ray at the top of the rotation. Now, several options have already come off the board, but it’s hard to not see a use for Carlos Rodón, Clayton Kershaw, or Zack Greinke in this rotation.

The bullpen could also still use a bit of extra sizzle. Our Depth Charts are currently driven by Steamer, but ZiPS is in broad agreement with the idea that Seattle’s bullpen is below-average at the moment. Like the rotation prior to the signing of Ray, there’s the middle and back of a good ‘pen here, but the Mariners are still missing the top two guys. Some of the best options are already unavailable, but if I was in charge in Seattle, I’d be burning up the phones trying to work something out with Andrew Chafin, Collin McHugh, or Ryan Tepera (among others), at least when they’re allowed to do so again.

So where are the Mariners now? Probably in the 80-85 win range, but it’s a solid 80-85 wins. Hopefully when baseball resumes, Seattle makes a big push to find even more out there.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.