2022 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

This is one case where just taking a glance at the depth chart graphic could lend the wrong impression. In the below graphic, two of the four most valuable ZiPS-projected hitters have their contributions split among multiple positions, with lesser players bringing down their overall numbers, and a third isn’t even on the depth chart. What’s more, the Mariners have reasonably good depth, especially offensively, and while the ceiling on most of the lineup isn’t exceptionally high, I do think they have a pretty high floor. I also don’t believe that Evan White has anywhere near enough remaining rope to get 300 plate appearances in 2022 if he matches his projection below.

Suffice it to say, ZiPS is convinced by Julio Rodríguez now. His 2019 performance for West Virginia in the Sally League was tremendous given his age at the time (18), but the low minors are still the low minors. 2020 cost him a year of development, but now that he has hit farther up the ladder, while still being young for the levels he traversed in 2021, there aren’t any statistical reasons to quibble. ZiPS doesn’t project three-win seasons from players this young on a whim. The complete list of hitters age 22-and-under who have projected for 3 WAR since I started making WAR part of the standard projections is below; note that the 2020 projections are pro-rated for the shortened season:

ZiPS Projected 3-WAR Batters, 22-and-Under
Year Player Projected WAR Actual
2014 Mike Trout 9.5 8.3
2017 Carlos Correa 6.5 5.1
2021 Juan Soto 6.3 6.6
2021 Fernando Tatis Jr. 5.4 6.1
2019 Juan Soto 5.1 4.9
2016 Carlos Correa 4.9 5.2
2014 Bryce Harper 4.9 1.6
2014 Manny Machado 4.5 2.3
2018 Cody Bellinger 4.4 3.6
2019 Ozzie Albies 4.3 4.5
2015 Manny Machado 4.2 6.6
2019 Ronald Acuña Jr. 4.0 5.5
2016 Corey Seager 3.9 6.9
2016 Francisco Lindor 3.8 5.5
2015 Bryce Harper 3.5 9.3
2018 Ozzie Albies 3.3 3.7
2014 Gregory Polanco 3.2 0.5
2015 Mookie Betts 3.1 4.8
2019 Kyle Tucker 3.1 0.5
2020 Juan Soto 2.2 2.5
2020 Ronald Acuña Jr. 1.9 2.4
2020 Bo Bichette 1.3 0.8
2020 Fernando Tatis Jr. 1.2 2.9
2020 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1.2 0.2

ZiPS actually under-projected this group by about 0.2 WAR per year. There’s only one player you can really call a bust, Gregory Polanco, but even he was an average player for several years, which isn’t exactly Brien Taylor territory. Most of these players are now fabulously wealthy men netting lots and lots of wins for their respective clubs. Rodríguez may join them soon.

Seattle’s lineup is generally solid but unexciting, which is one reason I hope Rodríguez pushes his way to the majors quickly, as few of the players on the team have anywhere near his dizzying upside. (I should also note that I’m more optimistic about Jarred Kelenic than the computer is.) The Mariners are in a tricky position here because while the solid nature of their group of hitters is a welcome feature, a team with two-win players everywhere is also a tricky one to upgrade in the short-term. I’d love to see Seattle sign Freddie Freeman, moving Ty France to an outfield corner (with positional flexibility) and Mitch Haniger to DH, or bring in Kris Bryant to take over third base, even with Abraham Toro on the roster. But I suspect that if they’re planning something that big it’s more likely to be targeted at pitching. Speaking of which…

Pitchers

Robbie Ray was an excellent pickup, giving the team the kind of legitimate ace they’ve been sorely lacking since the decline of King Félix. If the projections are to be believed, Seattle also has good choices with which to populate the middle and back parts of the rotation, with some perfectly reasonable options should injuries strike next year. George Kirby, Brandon Williamson, and Matt Brash all look like they can contribute imminently, and it’s not just the computer that likes them; my colleagues Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein ranked Kirby as baseball’s No. 41 prospect in their September Top 100 prospect update, with the other two players I mentioned in the team’s top 10. Emerson Hancock ranking lower in the projections isn’t an expression of the algorithm’s dislike, but simply a reflection of the fact that he only has 44 2/3 professional innings under his belt.

What the Mariners still need if they expect to be a contender — and I really think they can be — is someone to pair with Ray at the top of the rotation. Now, several options have already come off the board, but it’s hard to not see a use for Carlos Rodón, Clayton Kershaw, or Zack Greinke in this rotation.

The bullpen could also still use a bit of extra sizzle. Our Depth Charts are currently driven by Steamer, but ZiPS is in broad agreement with the idea that Seattle’s bullpen is below-average at the moment. Like the rotation prior to the signing of Ray, there’s the middle and back of a good ‘pen here, but the Mariners are still missing the top two guys. Some of the best options are already unavailable, but if I was in charge in Seattle, I’d be burning up the phones trying to work something out with Andrew Chafin, Collin McHugh, or Ryan Tepera (among others), at least when they’re allowed to do so again.

So where are the Mariners now? Probably in the 80-85 win range, but it’s a solid 80-85 wins. Hopefully when baseball resumes, Seattle makes a big push to find even more out there.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Julio Rodríguez R 21 RF 411 376 56 106 19 1 16 51 29 96 15 4
Ty France R 27 1B 640 567 84 160 31 2 21 83 43 115 1 1
J.P. Crawford L 27 SS 653 585 80 152 31 3 11 57 56 120 5 5
Mitch Haniger R 31 RF 612 547 91 136 25 2 31 91 50 152 3 0
Adam Frazier L 30 2B 615 559 75 151 27 4 9 45 43 77 7 6
Kyle Seager L 34 3B 571 514 63 117 26 1 25 89 48 129 3 1
Donovan Walton L 28 SS 445 395 58 101 18 2 12 50 32 67 2 5
Abraham Toro B 25 2B 518 461 65 112 22 2 14 56 43 92 6 4
Jose Marmolejos L 29 1B 453 405 55 101 19 1 19 63 41 107 0 0
Kyle Lewis R 26 CF 448 405 49 97 18 0 15 47 40 136 4 1
Luis Torrens R 26 C 460 420 47 99 20 2 15 56 34 115 0 1
Jake Fraley L 27 LF 375 324 44 75 15 2 14 51 42 106 13 5
Dylan Moore R 29 2B 373 329 43 70 15 2 12 42 34 103 20 7
Jarred Kelenic L 22 CF 535 484 65 111 23 3 23 76 44 137 12 6
Jantzen Witte R 32 3B 436 402 51 100 15 0 11 44 26 91 3 3
Tom Murphy R 31 C 307 273 32 58 10 1 12 38 30 99 1 1
Kevin Padlo R 25 3B 434 385 46 76 16 1 15 45 39 142 6 2
Cal Raleigh B 25 C 411 381 42 84 22 0 16 52 24 106 3 1
Taylor Trammell L 24 CF 513 449 63 90 15 2 16 52 50 165 10 6
Alberto Rodriguez L 21 RF 469 430 60 94 18 1 13 52 31 118 8 3
Brian O’Keefe R 28 C 415 380 44 83 12 0 16 48 32 123 2 1
José Godoy L 27 C 343 314 39 75 13 1 6 30 19 72 1 0
Noelvi Marte R 20 SS 534 495 63 108 17 1 20 65 36 138 13 3
Luis Liberato L 26 CF 367 333 38 74 12 2 9 32 24 98 3 2
Zach DeLoach L 23 RF 519 478 60 112 23 2 13 49 36 131 5 3
Dillon Thomas L 29 RF 427 383 49 83 16 2 10 41 30 143 11 4
Eric Campbell R 35 3B 293 260 32 59 12 0 5 27 27 64 3 2
Joe Rizzo L 24 3B 505 469 56 104 19 1 12 49 29 126 2 3
Kaden Polcovich B 23 2B 445 394 56 74 12 2 11 43 38 121 12 2
Jordan Cowan L 27 SS 411 374 39 84 13 1 4 23 31 85 12 3
Jack Larsen L 27 CF 484 435 55 90 17 2 14 52 42 156 5 3
Jake Bauers L 26 1B 424 373 44 81 16 1 10 38 46 114 8 4
Sam Travis R 28 1B 364 337 38 80 14 1 10 35 23 103 3 1
Patrick Frick R 25 SS 420 376 57 88 12 0 5 31 33 96 4 2
Alen Hanson B 29 2B 208 194 21 42 6 2 4 17 10 46 6 2
Evan White R 26 1B 341 316 36 67 11 1 13 42 21 104 2 1
Stephen Wrenn R 27 LF 400 362 44 72 14 3 8 33 27 132 17 4
Shed Long Jr. L 26 LF 332 301 35 66 13 2 9 33 27 97 5 2
Caleb Joseph R 36 C 220 204 22 41 9 1 5 17 10 65 0 0
Cade Marlowe L 25 RF 456 418 48 85 13 3 14 51 32 144 12 5
Sam Haggerty B 28 LF 282 248 32 49 10 2 4 18 28 90 14 3
Jack Reinheimer R 29 SS 363 330 40 69 10 1 4 24 24 88 12 3
Jake Scheiner R 26 1B 480 437 52 95 18 2 16 55 30 138 2 4
Dom Thompson-Williams L 27 RF 352 328 33 61 13 2 10 34 19 137 7 3
Bobby Honeyman L 26 1B 417 388 44 87 14 1 5 30 22 73 2 2
Cody Grosse L 25 LF 255 227 29 41 4 1 2 13 21 77 6 1
Marcus Wilson R 25 LF 441 389 49 72 14 2 13 36 44 178 10 3
Tyler Keenan L 23 3B 313 276 30 48 10 0 6 22 21 126 0 1
Zach Vincej R 31 3B 396 371 36 80 16 0 7 34 18 74 1 3
Cesar Izturis Jr. B 22 2B 411 390 45 82 14 0 4 29 15 95 4 3
Dariel Gomez L 25 1B 382 346 38 62 13 1 10 33 30 154 0 1
Connor Hoover L 25 1B 411 369 33 62 13 1 11 31 37 135 10 3
Matt Scheffler R 24 C 259 237 30 44 6 0 6 24 17 76 1 1
Jake Anchia R 25 C 332 309 30 52 8 0 11 34 15 115 0 0

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Julio Rodríguez .282 .341 .465 123 .184 .341 6.2 11 3.3 Austin Kearns
Ty France .282 .356 .455 125 .173 .323 6.1 0 3.2 Paul Konerko
J.P. Crawford .260 .329 .379 98 .120 .311 4.5 1 2.6 Leo Cardenas
Mitch Haniger .249 .319 .472 117 .223 .288 5.5 0 2.6 Geronimo Berroa
Adam Frazier .270 .332 .381 99 .111 .300 4.6 3 2.4 Jerry Lumpe
Kyle Seager .228 .298 .428 100 .200 .256 4.5 0 1.9 Ed Sprague
Donovan Walton .256 .323 .403 102 .147 .282 4.5 -1 1.7 Jeff Treadway
Abraham Toro .243 .320 .390 98 .148 .276 4.4 0 1.7 Luis Alicea
Jose Marmolejos .249 .319 .442 110 .193 .294 5.1 3 1.5 Larry Sheets
Kyle Lewis .240 .308 .395 95 .156 .323 4.4 1 1.5 Joe Vitiello
Luis Torrens .236 .293 .400 92 .164 .290 4.1 -1 1.4 Geronimo Gil
Jake Fraley .231 .326 .420 107 .188 .299 4.9 0 1.2 Stu Pederson
Dylan Moore .213 .301 .380 89 .167 .271 4.1 1 1.1 Matt Macri
Jarred Kelenic .229 .297 .432 101 .202 .272 4.5 -7 1.1 Paul O’Neill
Jantzen Witte .249 .297 .368 85 .119 .297 3.9 5 1.1 Rich Rollins
Tom Murphy .212 .293 .388 89 .176 .284 3.9 0 0.9 Kelly Stinnett
Kevin Padlo .197 .275 .361 76 .164 .268 3.4 6 0.8 Ken Bonifay
Cal Raleigh .220 .270 .404 85 .184 .263 3.8 -3 0.7 Al Pardo
Taylor Trammell .200 .287 .350 77 .149 .276 3.3 3 0.6 Dan Cholowsky
Alberto Rodriguez .219 .274 .356 75 .137 .271 3.4 11 0.6 Chad Mottola
Brian O’Keefe .218 .282 .376 82 .158 .278 3.7 -3 0.6 Jeff Banister
José Godoy .239 .288 .344 76 .105 .292 3.6 0 0.5 Roger Hansen
Noelvi Marte .218 .275 .378 80 .160 .261 3.7 -6 0.4 Luis Rivera
Luis Liberato .222 .271 .351 73 .129 .288 3.3 4 0.3 Jason Grove
Zach DeLoach .234 .295 .372 85 .138 .296 3.8 2 0.3 Otis Green
Dillon Thomas .217 .293 .347 79 .131 .317 3.6 4 0.3 Mike Neill
Eric Campbell .227 .305 .331 79 .104 .283 3.5 0 0.2 Jerry Royster
Joe Rizzo .222 .270 .343 70 .122 .278 3.1 5 0.2 Scott Cooper
Kaden Polcovich .188 .269 .312 63 .124 .240 3.0 4 0.2 Gary Miller-Jones
Jordan Cowan .225 .288 .297 65 .072 .281 3.1 0 0.1 Stu Cole
Jack Larsen .207 .280 .352 76 .145 .287 3.3 -2 0.0 Gene Gentile
Jake Bauers .217 .307 .346 83 .129 .285 3.7 0 -0.2 Howard Prager
Sam Travis .237 .289 .374 84 .136 .313 3.9 -1 -0.2 Rich Murray
Patrick Frick .234 .308 .306 73 .072 .302 3.3 -7 -0.2 Ed Jurak
Alen Hanson .216 .256 .330 63 .113 .264 3.0 0 -0.3 Kevin Davis
Evan White .212 .264 .377 77 .165 .271 3.4 1 -0.3 Tommy Everidge
Stephen Wrenn .199 .264 .320 63 .122 .288 3.1 4 -0.4 Steve Martin
Shed Long Jr. .219 .285 .365 81 .146 .292 3.6 -3 -0.4 Jeff Hermann
Caleb Joseph .201 .247 .328 59 .127 .269 2.7 -2 -0.4 Mike Macfarlane
Cade Marlowe .203 .262 .349 69 .146 .273 3.2 4 -0.4 Garrick Haltiwanger
Sam Haggerty .198 .286 .302 65 .105 .292 3.2 -1 -0.5 Mike Loggins
Jack Reinheimer .209 .266 .282 54 .073 .273 2.7 -1 -0.6 Ray Holbert
Jake Scheiner .217 .275 .378 80 .160 .279 3.4 -1 -0.7 Julio Vinas
Dom Thompson-Williams .186 .236 .329 56 .143 .282 2.6 3 -1.0 Richie Robnett
Bobby Honeyman .224 .272 .304 61 .080 .265 2.8 4 -1.0 Mike Wolff
Cody Grosse .181 .253 .233 38 .053 .264 2.1 2 -1.1 Freddie Money
Marcus Wilson .185 .273 .332 68 .147 .298 3.1 -4 -1.1 Jim Orsag
Tyler Keenan .174 .238 .275 43 .101 .292 2.1 0 -1.2 Matt Whitney
Zach Vincej .216 .254 .315 58 .100 .252 2.6 -4 -1.3 Danny Thompson
Cesar Izturis Jr. .210 .242 .277 45 .067 .268 2.2 -1 -1.6 John Flannery
Dariel Gomez .179 .249 .309 55 .130 .286 2.5 -1 -1.6 Ian Bladergroen
Connor Hoover .168 .246 .298 52 .130 .229 2.5 -3 -1.9 Joe Dusan
Matt Scheffler .186 .248 .287 50 .101 .245 2.3 -14 -1.9 Alan Probst
Jake Anchia .168 .215 .301 42 .133 .224 2.1 -12 -2.3 Jeff Winchester

Pitcher – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Robbie Ray L 30 10 7 3.46 28 28 166.7 128 64 27 51 218 3.66
Chris Flexen 플렉센 R 27 9 9 4.32 31 28 158.3 164 76 23 42 121 4.43
Yusei Kikuchi L 31 8 8 4.29 28 28 149.0 144 71 21 51 147 4.17
Logan Gilbert R 25 7 6 4.18 26 26 125.0 117 58 21 35 131 4.25
Marco Gonzales L 30 9 9 4.37 25 25 144.0 142 70 22 38 110 4.53
Brandon Williamson L 24 5 5 4.16 20 20 97.3 90 45 14 37 104 4.18
Tyler Anderson L 32 7 8 4.52 27 26 141.3 140 71 25 36 126 4.50
Diego Castillo R 28 6 4 3.23 62 2 61.3 48 22 7 21 76 3.41
Matt Brash R 24 5 6 4.49 22 21 104.3 98 52 15 46 100 4.63
George Kirby R 24 4 4 4.30 14 14 67.0 67 32 10 20 58 4.42
Ryan Weber R 31 5 6 4.66 25 16 102.3 110 53 17 21 78 4.61
Penn Murfee R 28 5 5 4.54 27 15 83.3 83 42 12 32 77 4.54
Nick Margevicius L 26 6 7 4.71 20 17 91.7 97 48 14 26 74 4.53
Paul Sewald R 32 6 5 3.82 58 1 63.7 51 27 10 22 88 3.54
Justus Sheffield L 26 7 9 4.84 27 21 109.7 114 59 16 54 97 4.95
Ken Giles R 31 2 1 3.49 40 0 38.7 31 15 6 12 51 3.49
Justin Dunn R 26 4 5 4.88 19 19 90.3 83 49 16 44 92 5.07
Casey Sadler R 31 2 1 3.81 44 1 49.7 43 21 7 15 48 4.17
Logan Verrett 베렛 R 32 5 7 4.90 16 15 90.0 102 49 18 12 61 4.96
Devin Sweet R 25 5 6 4.79 27 13 88.3 93 47 16 28 78 4.89
Wyatt Mills R 27 3 3 3.94 37 1 48.0 44 21 6 18 50 4.03
Darren McCaughan R 26 5 7 5.08 23 23 125.7 139 71 25 24 89 5.07
Anthony Misiewicz L 27 6 7 4.63 52 10 83.7 86 43 15 23 80 4.57
Matt Andriese R 32 3 3 4.12 38 1 59.0 56 27 9 19 61 4.21
Emerson Hancock R 23 2 2 4.80 14 14 50.7 52 27 8 20 42 4.94
Joe Smith R 38 3 3 3.82 43 1 35.3 35 15 5 7 30 4.09
Yohan Ramirez R 27 3 4 4.50 37 5 64.0 51 32 8 47 80 4.74
Robert Dugger R 26 6 8 5.06 27 21 112.0 117 63 20 40 93 5.07
Erik Swanson R 28 3 3 4.74 34 9 62.7 60 33 12 19 64 4.68
Asher Wojciechowski R 33 5 6 5.12 20 18 89.7 90 51 19 33 89 5.25
Ian McKinney L 27 5 7 5.13 20 18 94.7 94 54 15 49 87 5.14
Hector Santiago L 34 2 3 4.84 20 7 57.7 56 31 11 25 61 5.00
Collin Kober R 27 3 2 4.18 38 0 51.7 50 24 6 21 48 4.23
Sean Doolittle L 35 3 3 4.18 52 0 47.3 44 22 8 15 51 4.30
Adam Hill R 25 6 8 5.20 21 20 98.7 106 57 15 47 77 5.21
Joey Gerber R 25 2 2 4.23 44 0 44.7 41 21 6 22 46 4.48
Alejandro Requena R 25 6 8 5.17 23 16 92.3 102 53 13 39 62 5.10
Dayeison Arias R 25 2 2 4.40 34 1 45.0 41 22 7 19 50 4.38
Drew Steckenrider R 31 3 3 4.31 56 0 56.3 52 27 9 17 51 4.51
Andrés Muñoz R 23 2 2 4.37 24 1 22.7 19 11 4 13 31 4.59
Reid Morgan R 25 3 4 4.64 22 2 42.7 45 22 7 13 33 4.82
Brian Schlitter R 36 1 2 4.66 38 3 46.3 49 24 6 17 30 4.80
Fred Villarreal R 24 2 2 4.72 32 3 55.3 58 29 7 22 42 4.66
Michael Stryffeler R 26 4 4 4.38 43 0 39.0 34 19 5 24 45 4.54
Daniel Zamora L 29 3 3 4.53 40 1 47.7 45 24 8 21 50 4.77
Matt Festa R 29 2 3 4.60 26 1 31.3 31 16 5 13 30 4.78
Justin Grimm R 33 2 3 4.56 44 1 49.3 44 25 8 24 58 4.52
Aaron Fletcher L 26 3 3 4.50 44 0 58.0 60 29 8 20 47 4.54
Levi Stoudt R 24 4 6 5.40 16 16 81.7 87 49 16 37 69 5.54
Moises Gomez R 25 2 3 4.68 38 1 50.0 48 26 8 23 48 4.90
Evan Johnson R 25 2 2 5.25 18 5 36.0 34 21 5 25 36 5.24
Ben Onyshko L 25 3 3 4.72 33 1 55.3 54 29 8 26 55 4.64
David Ellingson R 27 2 2 4.59 35 0 51.0 55 26 7 17 36 4.73
Jimmy Yacabonis R 30 2 4 5.34 34 7 57.3 60 34 10 26 48 5.34
Darin Gillies R 29 2 3 5.21 40 1 48.3 49 28 10 21 48 5.31
Max Roberts L 24 0 1 6.15 18 5 33.7 36 23 6 23 27 6.12
Leon Hunter R 25 3 4 5.37 27 1 55.3 60 33 10 23 45 5.31
Nick Duron R 26 2 4 5.59 35 0 38.7 40 24 7 23 33 5.77

Pitcher – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Robbie Ray 11.8 2.8 1.5 7.6% 32.4% .271 121 83 3.3 Johan Santana
Chris Flexen 6.9 2.4 1.3 6.2% 18.0% .292 96 104 1.7 Jon Lieber
Yusei Kikuchi 8.9 3.1 1.3 8.0% 23.1% .298 97 103 1.6 Sterling Hitchcock
Logan Gilbert 9.4 2.5 1.5 6.7% 25.0% .289 100 100 1.5 Keith Foulke
Marco Gonzales 6.9 2.4 1.4 6.3% 18.2% .278 95 105 1.4 Brian Anderson
Brandon Williamson 9.6 3.4 1.3 8.9% 24.9% .295 100 100 1.2 Ted Lilly
Tyler Anderson 8.0 2.3 1.6 6.1% 21.3% .285 92 109 1.2 Terry Mulholland
Diego Castillo 11.2 3.1 1.0 8.3% 30.0% .283 129 78 1.1 Cecilio Guante
Matt Brash 8.6 4.0 1.3 10.1% 21.9% .287 93 108 0.9 Gary Wex
George Kirby 7.8 2.7 1.3 7.0% 20.3% .292 97 103 0.7 Mark Knudson
Ryan Weber 6.9 1.8 1.5 4.8% 17.9% .296 89 112 0.6 Don Wengert
Penn Murfee 8.3 3.5 1.3 8.8% 21.2% .298 92 109 0.6 Tim Pugh
Nick Margevicius 7.3 2.6 1.4 6.6% 18.7% .300 88 113 0.6 Brian Shouse
Paul Sewald 12.4 3.1 1.4 8.4% 33.7% .293 109 92 0.5 Xavier Hernandez
Justus Sheffield 8.0 4.4 1.3 10.9% 19.6% .304 86 116 0.5 Bruce Ruffin
Ken Giles 11.9 2.8 1.4 7.6% 32.5% .284 119 84 0.4 Justin Duchscherer
Justin Dunn 9.2 4.4 1.6 11.1% 23.2% .279 85 117 0.4 Allen Edwards
Casey Sadler 8.7 2.7 1.3 7.2% 23.2% .269 109 91 0.4 Bob Howry
Logan Verrett 6.1 1.2 1.8 3.1% 16.0% .294 85 118 0.4 Brian Tollberg
Devin Sweet 7.9 2.9 1.6 7.3% 20.3% .298 87 115 0.4 Luis Andujar
Wyatt Mills 9.4 3.4 1.1 8.7% 24.3% .295 106 95 0.3 Barry Johnson
Darren McCaughan 6.4 1.7 1.8 4.5% 16.6% .291 82 122 0.3 Heath Totten
Anthony Misiewicz 8.6 2.5 1.6 6.4% 22.3% .301 90 111 0.3 Bryan Ward
Matt Andriese 9.3 2.9 1.4 7.6% 24.3% .296 101 99 0.3 Jay Howell
Emerson Hancock 7.5 3.6 1.4 9.0% 18.8% .293 87 115 0.3 Jerome Gamble
Joe Smith 7.6 1.8 1.3 4.8% 20.4% .291 109 92 0.3 Dick Hall
Yohan Ramirez 11.3 6.6 1.1 16.2% 27.5% .285 93 108 0.2 John D’Acquisto
Robert Dugger 7.5 3.2 1.6 8.1% 18.9% .292 82 122 0.2 Ismael Ramirez
Erik Swanson 9.2 2.7 1.7 7.1% 24.1% .286 88 114 0.2 Mike Burns
Asher Wojciechowski 8.9 3.3 1.9 8.4% 22.7% .290 81 123 0.2 Mike Gardiner
Ian McKinney 8.3 4.7 1.4 11.5% 20.4% .294 81 123 0.2 Ray Hayward
Hector Santiago 9.5 3.9 1.7 9.9% 24.1% .294 86 116 0.2 Glendon Rusch
Collin Kober 8.4 3.7 1.0 9.3% 21.3% .299 100 100 0.1 Mark Lee
Sean Doolittle 9.7 2.9 1.5 7.5% 25.5% .290 100 100 0.1 Rheal Cormier
Adam Hill 7.0 4.3 1.4 10.5% 17.2% .300 80 125 0.1 Ken Ray 레이
Joey Gerber 9.3 4.4 1.2 11.2% 23.5% .292 98 102 0.1 Scott Gentile
Alejandro Requena 6.0 3.8 1.3 9.4% 14.9% .300 81 124 0.1 Bill Swift
Dayeison Arias 10.0 3.8 1.4 9.8% 25.8% .293 95 106 0.1 Barry Jones
Drew Steckenrider 8.1 2.7 1.4 7.2% 21.5% .274 97 104 0.1 Lance Carter
Andrés Muñoz 12.3 5.2 1.6 13.0% 31.0% .294 95 105 0.1 Armando Benitez
Reid Morgan 7.0 2.7 1.5 7.0% 17.8% .292 90 111 0.1 Joe Roa
Brian Schlitter 5.8 3.3 1.2 8.4% 14.8% .291 89 112 0.0 Fred Gladding
Fred Villarreal 6.8 3.6 1.1 9.0% 17.1% .298 88 113 0.0 Rocky Childress
Michael Stryffeler 10.4 5.5 1.2 13.7% 25.7% .293 95 105 0.0 Jim Stoops
Daniel Zamora 9.4 4.0 1.5 10.0% 23.9% .291 92 109 0.0 Wayne Franklin
Matthew Festa 8.6 3.7 1.4 9.4% 21.7% .295 91 110 0.0 Jesus Colome
Justin Grimm 10.6 4.4 1.5 11.2% 27.0% .293 91 110 0.0 Juan Eichelberger
Aaron Fletcher 7.3 3.1 1.2 7.9% 18.6% .297 93 108 0.0 Ryan Meaux
Levi Stoudt 7.6 4.1 1.8 10.1% 18.8% .295 77 130 -0.1 Rich DeLucia
Moises Gomez 8.6 4.1 1.4 10.4% 21.7% .288 89 112 -0.1 Brandon Kolb
Evan Johnson 9.0 6.3 1.3 15.0% 21.6% .293 79 126 -0.1 Tim Meeks
Ben Onyshko 8.9 4.2 1.3 10.6% 22.4% .301 88 113 -0.1 Joe Klink
David Ellingson 6.4 3.0 1.2 7.6% 16.1% .298 91 110 -0.1 Justin Huisman
Jimmy Yacabonis 7.5 4.1 1.6 10.1% 18.6% .294 78 128 -0.2 Mike Villano
Darin Gillies 8.9 3.9 1.9 9.8% 22.4% .293 80 125 -0.4 Julio Manon
Max Roberts 7.2 6.1 1.6 14.5% 17.0% .297 68 148 -0.4 Jason Norderum
Leon Hunter 7.3 3.7 1.6 9.3% 18.1% .299 78 129 -0.5 Jim Brink
Nick Duron 7.7 5.4 1.6 12.9% 18.5% .292 75 134 -0.5 Rick Greene

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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TwinPeaks
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TwinPeaks

Paul O’Neill a pretty nice comp for Kelenic considering his stats were cratered by rushing him to the majors last year.

grandbranyan
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grandbranyan

I thought Kelenic’s call up was delayed to get an extra year of service time?

sadtrombone
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sadtrombone

I remember someone making that argument but forget exactly who did it. My guess is that whoever made it is very happy that at least some of us have forgotten about it.

TwinPeaks
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TwinPeaks

That was the claim, and because some imprudent comments were made by Mariners brass, it actually likely caused him to be called up sooner, but the reality is Kelenic was called up with only 21 games of AA experience and 6 games of AAA experience.

Julio Rodriguez, who is also on the fast track, by comparison, already has 46 games of AA experience.

CC AFC
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CC AFC

I think it’s not entirely fair to cite the number of official games without the context. The pandemic wiped out what would have been a season of aa/aaa, maybe some mlb ball. There was almost 2 years between him making double a and playing in triple a. But it’s not like he was laying on the couch eating bon bons during that time. He was at the alternate site getting at bats and playing games with other members of the 60 man roster in 2020, which was made up mostly of high level minor leaguers. Even if you don’t credit that exactly the same as playing all those games at triple a, he had a lot going on besides just the 6 games. And of course, there’s a level of subjective scouting of whether a player is ready, and I think the determination was later confirmed by the fact that he absolutely murdered triple a whenever he played there.

kick me in the GO NATS
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kick me in the GO NATS

Experience makes you ready, not age. accordingly, missing a year should delay a call up

CC AFC
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CC AFC

Rushed to the majors? Nah dude, he was crushing Triple A and we were all making fun of Seattle for holding him down to work on his defense.

TwinPeaks
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TwinPeaks

He had played a total of 6 games at AAA when he was called up.

CC AFC
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CC AFC

Ok, but due to the pandemic, those games were more than 1.5 years after he reached double a. And then he went back down and smushed triple a again because he was overqualified for triple a. Whatever his issues with the majors, I don’t see any basis for saying he was rushed.

TwinPeaks
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TwinPeaks

There are tons of guys who smash Triple A and aren’t ready for the majors. I don’t see why it is that controversial to say that a guy called up with 27 games of upper minors experience was rushed.

I mean, there are outliers like Soto, but typically even top hitting prospects have close to a full year in the upper minors before being called up.

3cardmonty
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It’s controversial to say he was rushed because the Mariners went on the record saying they intended to manipulate his service time, suggesting that they saw him as MLB-ready and were only keeping him down until the clock turned over. That’s the opposite of a team “rushing” someone they knew to be unready. It’s further corroborated by Kelenic’s own account that they offered to call him up in 2020 if he signed an extension. The Mariners FO clearly, subjectively believed that he was MLB-ready as early as 2020. The fact that he faceplanted when called up just means they were wrong in that belief, not that they didn’t believe it in the first place.

TwinPeaks
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TwinPeaks

I understand that, and it seems clear that at least some people in the Mariners FO thought he was ready. But on the other hand, it is hard to find many top hitting prospects who are called up with less than 27 games of upper minors experience. Heck, even Bryce Harper (58 games) and Mike Trout (111 games) had a lot more. Soto had less. But he is a major outlier, and Kelenic is not on the uberprospect level with any of those three guys.

casey j
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casey j

He was TERRIBLE, and the whole reason to call him up is if he is going to be good. The Mariners made the correct decision to wait.

Only Kelenic, or his agent would want a few months of a .150 hitter than a full season on Kelenic 5-6 years from now. Such a consistently stupid argument. WHY would they do that? Charity and good will? He stunk for three months straight. Like, one of the very worst players in baseball.

SenorGato
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SenorGato

Same, resent this whole thing of fans arguing for *more* MiLB time to a guy with Kelenic’s baseball resume both pro and amateur. Boo hoo, he didn’t put up fancy stats as a rookie immediately “after” covid with SafeCo as the home park to make you seem like a fantasy genius…I really hate even the idea of it, he’s going to be fine and it’s mostly a passive plot for manufacturing a manageable timeline with maximum [cost] certainty because money is involved…It’s rotten at the core, but because roster management for the always coming never here Future is all the rage seems clever and appealing rather than basic and at least maybe limiting…The earlier you get these kind of talents up the better. That he didn’t get some arbitrary amount of upper minors PAs is mostly made up, especially in this era of teams running through so many players and putting so much Value in option years

casey j
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casey j

It’s better for the player to come up earlier, but the team has to decide if it’s better for them. The reason why some teams have to say “He needs more AAA time” is because agents and fans have made it so the team can’t just plainly say “We don’t want to trade three months of Kelenic hitting .150 at age 21, for a WHOLE SEASON of Kelenic hitting .278 with 28 bombs, 25 steals, and 75 walks at age 26. That would be silly, and y’all are silly for suggesting it.”

People act like everyone is supposed to act in favor of their own best interests, except management of baseball teams. Why?
I would make the argument that there is no manipulation going on, just easy decisions.