2022 ZiPS Projections: Colorado Rockies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Colorado Rockies.

Batters

If you’ve already seen the Steamer projections that currently make up our depth charts, you’re probably not surprised by the numbers that ZiPS predicts. You may also not be shocked if you’ve seen the Rockies in recent years, a team with an offense that has been buttressed by a couple of MVP candidates every year, now with those MVP candidates removed from the roster or in their decline phases. Steamer has the Colorado lineup a shocking five wins worse than the next-worst team, Cincinnati; the Reds are closer to the 17th-ranked Phillies than the Rockies.

C.J. Cron was an uncharacteristically clever signing by the Rockies. They actually sought out a type of player who may now be undervalued by the market generally: a league-average first baseman. The problem is that league average is still “just” league average, not something that is the foundation of a solid offense. Cron ought to be decent, Ryan McMahon still has some upside left, and Brendan Rodgers is probably the only Rockie with true breakout potential. Outside of these three players, there’s just not much salvageable about the offense, nor any particular reason for optimism about anyone in the minors in 2022 even moving the needle. There have been some genuinely lousy lineups in baseball that ZiPS has projected, but this might be the most depressing of them.

Pitchers

One of the odd paradoxes of the Rockies is that they somehow figured out one of the hardest things: putting together a starting rotation that can survive Coors Field relatively intact. A front four of Germán Márquez, Antonio Senzatela, Kyle Freeland, and Austin Gomber isn’t an elite quartet, but it’s a good one, and better than that of many teams that will finish with more wins in 2022. It could have been better if the effort to retain Jon Gray had been more serious; the general belief, as Patrick Saunders noted in the Denver Post, was that the Rockies would have been interested in a three- or four-year deal worth somewhere around $11 million a year — a rather unserious offer. That they didn’t give him a qualifying offer or trade him when they had the chance is a very Rockies thing to do.

If the front four is as healthy as the depth charts hope, the Rockies could again win 70 games, or just enough to keep ownership from once again having any interest in changing course. If injuries strike, the wheels likely come off the rotation very quickly, as they have as little depth here as everywhere else on the field.

Colorado’s bullpen looks like it will be toward the bottom of the league again, though if we’re ranking the team’s sins, this is a small one. From the Rockies’ perspective, an inexpensive failure is much preferable to an exorbitant one, and with so many problems elsewhere, it’s not as if there will be a whole bunch of wins for the relief corps to let fly out the window.

The Rockies are the worst-run team in baseball, and it’s not particularly close at this point. And the sad part of it is that this was a perfectly predictable thing.

Until there is a drastic overhaul of how this organization is run and how they think about baseball, the Rockies are doomed to follow this same path. It’s not something that’s going to be solved by hiring good people on the analytics side, or even by a better GM. It has to be a whole culture change, and one driven by ownership, which is fundamentally the largest problem with the team right now.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Trevor Story R 29 SS 612 548 91 148 34 5 28 79 52 146 24 7
Ryan McMahon L 27 3B 564 503 73 126 28 2 24 83 55 156 5 2
C.J. Cron R 32 1B 503 443 61 118 27 1 26 82 45 112 1 0
Brendan Rodgers R 25 2B 429 399 51 112 22 3 16 51 21 88 1 1
Sam Hilliard L 28 CF 502 456 64 103 20 4 24 64 42 168 14 3
Elehuris Montero R 23 3B 504 451 67 118 19 2 21 64 36 111 0 0
Connor Joe R 29 LF 370 318 46 81 17 1 12 47 43 77 1 1
Elias Díaz R 31 C 360 329 44 86 17 1 12 42 27 59 0 0
Brian Serven R 27 C 278 254 29 56 11 1 10 29 15 70 1 1
Charlie Blackmon L 35 RF 552 496 79 137 26 4 16 68 44 93 3 2
Garrett Hampson R 27 SS 490 448 65 112 21 6 12 37 34 119 20 6
Rio Ruiz L 28 2B 409 371 43 90 18 1 12 44 32 88 3 1
Yonathan Daza R 28 CF 435 402 42 111 21 3 5 36 24 75 6 4
Dom Nuñez L 27 C 284 246 34 50 12 2 12 35 34 94 1 1
Colton Welker R 24 3B 322 292 37 73 15 1 10 36 22 73 1 1
Alan Trejo R 26 SS 448 416 49 97 20 2 13 47 22 111 2 4
Tim Lopes R 28 2B 447 409 48 105 26 2 10 46 28 97 14 6
Chris Owings R 30 2B 305 279 34 62 14 2 9 32 23 92 8 4
Jose Briceno R 29 C 120 110 13 26 4 0 5 14 6 28 1 0
Raimel Tapia L 28 LF 517 477 66 132 28 4 7 47 35 86 17 5
Greg Bird L 29 1B 420 369 51 85 17 1 17 54 38 102 0 1
Brenton Doyle R 24 RF 411 388 43 97 15 1 10 33 21 127 12 4
Chris Rabago R 29 C 199 181 21 38 8 0 3 16 16 51 4 2
Michael Toglia B 23 1B 495 448 61 101 18 2 17 54 38 134 6 2
Kyle Holder L 28 SS 353 320 41 78 16 2 6 30 23 69 3 2
Wynton Bernard R 31 CF 307 286 29 66 12 3 6 22 17 70 14 2
Max George R 26 C 241 210 25 39 7 1 7 19 23 76 8 2
Matt Adams L 33 1B 261 242 29 52 10 0 13 40 17 81 0 0
Eric Stamets R 30 SS 265 244 23 51 7 2 4 18 17 71 6 1
Willie MacIver R 25 C 431 396 44 86 16 2 11 38 25 116 11 4
D.J. Peterson R 30 3B 197 183 20 40 9 0 6 21 10 55 1 0
Coco Montes R 25 SS 505 467 53 109 23 2 11 48 26 125 3 7
Ryan Vilade R 23 LF 546 498 58 128 24 4 9 39 34 103 11 5
Ian Desmond R 36 LF 464 425 59 103 24 5 17 59 33 115 7 3
Kelby Tomlinson R 32 2B 330 305 27 68 11 2 1 17 19 77 4 3
Matt McLaughlin R 26 2B 375 342 36 79 14 1 4 23 26 85 4 6
Taylor Snyder R 27 RF 455 417 47 92 18 2 17 51 29 138 9 2
Nick Longhi R 26 LF 326 298 38 69 15 2 7 32 22 91 0 0
Danny Edgeworth L 26 3B 207 189 20 39 7 0 5 16 14 65 2 1
Scott Burcham R 29 2B 185 170 16 33 7 0 3 11 12 56 2 2
Sean Bouchard R 26 LF 396 363 40 82 20 2 10 36 26 116 6 4
LJ Hatch R 28 2B 170 155 17 30 5 1 2 12 11 54 1 2
Aaron Schunk R 24 3B 390 365 47 82 14 2 7 33 17 105 8 3
Jameson Hannah L 24 CF 409 374 32 88 17 2 5 21 25 108 9 3
Casey Golden R 27 LF 341 306 37 58 10 1 12 33 25 149 4 3
Mylz Jones R 28 RF 336 314 30 67 12 2 7 24 15 83 9 5

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Trevor Story .270 .340 .504 110 .234 .321 6.5 4 3.6 Robby Thompson
Ryan McMahon .250 .326 .457 95 .207 .316 5.4 4 1.9 Phil Nevin
C.J. Cron .266 .348 .508 113 .242 .302 6.5 0 1.7 Ivan Cruz
Brendan Rodgers .281 .326 .471 99 .190 .325 5.7 0 1.4 Jose Vidro
Sam Hilliard .226 .293 .445 83 .219 .299 4.7 6 1.2 Ruben Rivera
Elehuris Montero .262 .319 .452 92 .191 .304 5.3 -1 1.0 Tom Redington
Connor Joe .255 .350 .428 96 .173 .301 5.4 2 0.8 Todd Betts
Elias Díaz .261 .319 .429 87 .167 .287 5.0 -4 0.6 Greg Olson
Brian Serven .220 .272 .390 65 .169 .264 3.6 7 0.6 Mike Ryan
Charlie Blackmon .276 .342 .442 97 .165 .313 5.6 -4 0.5 Shawn Green
Garrett Hampson .250 .305 .404 77 .154 .315 4.6 -2 0.5 Mariano Duncan
Rio Ruiz .243 .302 .394 74 .151 .288 4.3 4 0.5 Alan Lewis
Yonathan Daza .276 .319 .381 76 .104 .329 4.5 2 0.4 Skip Schumaker
Dom Nuñez .203 .303 .415 79 .211 .271 4.2 0 0.4 Tim Killeen
Colton Welker .250 .303 .411 79 .161 .301 4.4 2 0.3 Scott Cooper
Alan Trejo .233 .275 .385 64 .151 .288 3.6 7 0.2 Scott White
Tim Lopes .257 .308 .403 78 .147 .315 4.6 -2 0.2 Hector Luna
Chris Owings .222 .285 .384 67 .161 .298 3.8 4 0.2 David Matranga
Jose Briceno .236 .280 .409 71 .173 .273 4.1 0 0.1 Gustavo Molina
Raimel Tapia .277 .326 .396 82 .119 .326 5.0 0 0.1 Bruce Fields
Greg Bird .230 .305 .420 81 .190 .272 4.4 3 0.1 Jay Gainer
Brenton Doyle .250 .292 .371 66 .121 .347 4.0 8 0.0 Virgilio Silverio
Chris Rabago .210 .278 .304 48 .094 .276 2.9 4 0.0 Danny Ardoin
Michael Toglia .225 .289 .388 69 .163 .283 4.0 10 -0.1 Willie Tatum
Kyle Holder .244 .299 .363 67 .119 .294 3.8 -1 -0.2 Gregg Raymundo
Wynton Bernard .231 .281 .357 60 .126 .286 3.9 1 -0.2 Manny Martinez
Max George .186 .283 .329 55 .143 .252 3.3 0 -0.2 Paul Chiaffredo
Matt Adams .215 .272 .417 71 .202 .264 3.9 2 -0.4 Greg Sparks
Eric Stamets .209 .265 .303 44 .094 .278 2.9 3 -0.4 Brandon Chaves
Willie MacIver .217 .273 .351 56 .134 .279 3.4 0 -0.4 Nick Trzesniak
D.J. Peterson .219 .265 .366 58 .148 .279 3.4 -1 -0.5 Mike Christensen
Coco Montes .233 .279 .362 61 .128 .296 3.3 1 -0.6 Ricky Magdaleno
Ryan Vilade .257 .305 .376 71 .118 .308 4.2 2 -0.6 Bill Eveline
Ian Desmond .242 .300 .442 85 .200 .294 4.8 -9 -0.7 Ron Gant
Kelby Tomlinson .223 .271 .282 41 .059 .295 2.6 6 -0.8 Chris Petersen
Matt McLaughlin .231 .292 .313 54 .082 .296 3.0 1 -0.9 Keith Johns
Taylor Snyder .221 .274 .396 67 .175 .286 3.9 -1 -0.9 John Giudice
Nick Longhi .232 .289 .366 65 .134 .310 3.7 -2 -0.9 Brian Suarez
Danny Edgeworth .206 .272 .323 50 .116 .286 3.0 -4 -1.0 Lou Benbow
Scott Burcham .194 .250 .288 36 .094 .270 2.3 -2 -1.1 Les Dennis
Sean Bouchard .226 .281 .375 64 .149 .304 3.6 -1 -1.1 Jonathan Johnson
LJ Hatch .194 .254 .277 35 .084 .283 2.2 -3 -1.1 Matt Guiliano
Aaron Schunk .225 .265 .332 50 .107 .296 3.1 -4 -1.4 Franklin Parra
Jameson Hannah .235 .288 .332 57 .096 .318 3.5 -8 -1.5 Pedro Valdes
Casey Golden .190 .267 .346 54 .157 .317 3.0 -3 -1.5 Doc Brooks
Mylz Jones .213 .254 .331 47 .118 .268 2.9 -4 -1.8 Jamie Gann

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Germán Márquez R 27 13 8 4.15 30 30 173.3 169 80 21 54 176 3.75
Antonio Senzatela R 27 8 6 4.35 28 28 153.0 168 74 17 41 115 4.08
Kyle Freeland L 29 9 8 4.85 25 25 131.7 144 71 19 48 105 4.65
Austin Gomber L 28 9 7 4.79 24 21 103.3 103 55 18 38 106 4.61
Nick Bush L 25 5 5 5.10 19 17 100.7 114 57 16 35 76 4.93
Frank Duncan R 30 6 6 5.40 23 22 110.0 125 66 17 38 79 4.95
Ryan Feltner R 25 7 7 5.47 23 23 110.3 124 67 17 50 85 5.19
Brandon Gold R 27 6 6 5.49 21 20 105.0 128 64 19 25 74 4.98
Ryan Rolison L 24 4 4 5.33 18 18 81.0 89 48 14 30 67 5.03
Daniel Bard R 37 8 5 4.31 56 0 56.3 51 27 7 31 67 4.39
Dereck Rodríguez R 30 6 6 5.68 25 20 101.3 117 64 19 32 79 5.12
Jhoulys Chacín R 34 5 5 5.46 36 12 84.0 88 51 14 37 69 5.13
Lucas Gilbreath L 26 5 5 5.46 39 14 87.3 92 53 12 52 82 5.05
Jack Wynkoop L 28 5 5 5.59 17 12 77.3 95 48 14 21 46 5.31
Scott Oberg R 32 3 2 4.04 34 0 35.7 33 16 4 13 34 3.91
Robert Stephenson R 29 2 2 4.44 52 1 50.7 45 25 8 22 60 4.29
Jake Bird R 26 4 4 5.16 40 4 68.0 73 39 8 36 51 4.97
Noah Davis R 25 5 6 5.92 18 18 83.7 98 55 14 38 55 5.62
Ashton Goudeau R 29 4 4 5.65 25 9 71.7 82 45 13 26 49 5.43
Carlos Estévez R 29 4 3 4.88 64 0 62.7 66 34 11 23 63 4.65
Bernardo Flores Jr. L 26 3 4 5.89 15 11 55.0 64 36 10 22 39 5.49
Zac Rosscup L 34 1 0 4.50 30 0 26.0 24 13 4 14 30 4.60
Jairo Díaz R 31 3 3 4.79 42 0 41.3 41 22 5 21 40 4.49
PJ Poulin L 25 3 2 4.86 49 0 46.3 47 25 6 20 39 4.67
Ty Blach L 31 3 5 5.59 25 17 83.7 100 52 16 24 54 5.34
Trent Fennell R 26 2 2 5.67 29 7 60.3 66 38 10 32 49 5.50
Peter Lambert R 25 3 4 6.12 20 20 89.7 109 61 18 33 61 5.70
Jared Biddy R 25 1 1 5.17 26 1 47.0 53 27 7 15 31 4.95
Ben Bowden L 27 3 3 5.06 51 0 48.0 46 27 8 28 58 4.81
Matt Dennis R 27 6 8 6.20 24 19 101.7 131 70 20 34 61 5.72
Nate Griep R 28 2 2 5.24 35 1 34.3 34 20 5 22 31 5.36
Jordan Sheffield R 27 2 2 5.19 38 0 34.7 33 20 5 20 33 5.06
Tyler Kinley R 31 2 2 5.22 64 0 60.3 56 35 10 32 64 4.95
Heath Holder R 29 4 4 5.60 36 3 62.7 68 39 11 31 54 5.37
Jose Mujica R 26 5 7 6.29 21 18 83.0 102 58 18 26 58 5.72
Reagan Todd L 26 3 3 5.28 45 0 46.0 48 27 8 21 43 5.07
Tommy Doyle R 26 3 3 5.34 30 0 28.7 31 17 5 13 24 5.34
Yency Almonte R 28 2 2 5.30 54 0 54.3 56 32 9 30 52 5.30
Brian Gonzalez L 26 3 3 5.91 33 6 64.0 72 42 12 31 53 5.56
Julian Fernández R 26 3 3 5.32 51 0 47.3 50 28 8 22 41 5.17
Chi Chi González R 30 5 6 6.31 25 20 107.0 129 75 22 43 68 5.93
Logan Cozart R 29 2 2 5.33 51 0 50.7 55 30 9 20 44 5.11
Chad Smith R 27 2 2 5.40 36 0 33.3 33 20 4 22 32 4.98
JD Hammer R 27 2 2 5.57 38 0 42.0 43 26 8 22 42 5.44
Garrett Schilling R 26 5 6 6.51 17 17 83.0 104 60 18 39 59 6.17
Nelson Gonzalez R 32 2 2 6.19 20 2 32.0 36 22 7 17 27 6.02
Joe Harvey R 30 1 1 6.06 32 0 32.7 33 22 7 20 35 5.84
Justin Lawrence R 27 5 5 5.85 50 0 47.7 50 31 6 34 41 5.42
Karl Kauffmann R 24 6 9 6.68 21 20 91.7 116 68 19 45 49 6.44
Tate Scioneaux R 29 2 3 5.94 43 0 50.0 57 33 11 18 42 5.62
Chris Rusin L 35 1 1 6.50 29 3 44.3 55 32 10 17 28 6.13
Ian Clarkin L 27 3 5 6.97 20 11 62.0 79 48 12 34 28 6.63
Yoan Aybar L 24 3 5 6.56 50 0 48.0 53 35 8 37 37 6.31
Nick Kennedy L 26 3 4 7.01 39 5 61.7 77 48 16 28 49 6.52

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Germán Márquez 9.1 2.8 1.1 7.3% 23.9% .308 119 84 3.2 Bartolo Colon
Antonio Senzatela 6.8 2.4 1.0 6.2% 17.3% .313 114 88 2.6 Tom Bradley
Kyle Freeland 7.2 3.3 1.3 8.3% 18.1% .309 102 98 1.6 Chris Hammond
Austin Gomber 9.2 3.3 1.6 8.5% 23.7% .301 103 97 1.4 Joe Price
Nick Bush 6.8 3.1 1.4 7.8% 17.0% .310 97 103 1.0 Tom Urbani
Frank Duncan 6.5 3.1 1.4 7.8% 16.1% .309 92 109 0.9 Mike Morgan
Ryan Feltner 6.9 4.1 1.4 9.9% 16.9% .310 90 111 0.8 Reynol Mendoza
Brandon Gold 6.3 2.1 1.6 5.4% 15.9% .319 90 111 0.7 Greg Wooten
Ryan Rolison 7.4 3.3 1.6 8.3% 18.6% .306 93 108 0.7 Scott Lewis
Daniel Bard 10.7 5.0 1.1 12.2% 26.4% .308 115 87 0.5 Rudy Seanez
Dereck Rodríguez 7.0 2.8 1.7 7.1% 17.6% .311 87 115 0.5 James Baldwin
Jhoulys Chacín 7.4 4.0 1.5 9.9% 18.4% .295 91 110 0.5 Jim Slaton
Lucas Gilbreath 8.5 5.4 1.2 12.8% 20.2% .315 91 110 0.5 Darren Burroughs
Jack Wynkoop 5.4 2.4 1.6 6.1% 13.3% .310 89 113 0.4 Jeff Ballard
Scott Oberg 8.6 3.3 1.0 8.6% 22.4% .290 122 82 0.4 Bob Howry
Robert Stephenson 10.7 3.9 1.4 10.1% 27.5% .294 111 90 0.4 Rich Garces
Jake Bird 6.8 4.8 1.1 11.5% 16.3% .305 96 104 0.3 Joe Hudson
Noah Davis 5.9 4.1 1.5 9.8% 14.2% .308 84 120 0.3 Joel Moore
Ashton Goudeau 6.2 3.3 1.6 8.1% 15.3% .301 88 114 0.2 Ray Soff
Carlos Estévez 9.0 3.3 1.6 8.4% 22.9% .313 101 99 0.2 Mark Grant
Bernardo Flores Jr. 6.4 3.6 1.6 8.8% 15.6% .307 84 119 0.2 Luis Ayala
Zac Rosscup 10.4 4.8 1.4 12.2% 26.1% .303 110 91 0.2 Keith Comstock
Jairo Díaz 8.7 4.6 1.1 11.4% 21.6% .308 103 97 0.2 Dennis Higgins
PJ Poulin 7.6 3.9 1.2 9.7% 18.9% .297 102 98 0.2 Grant Jackson
Ty Blach 5.8 2.6 1.7 6.5% 14.6% .307 81 124 0.1 Lee Gronkiewicz
Trent Fennell 7.3 4.8 1.5 11.5% 17.6% .304 87 115 0.2 William Vaughan
Peter Lambert 6.1 3.3 1.8 8.1% 14.9% .312 81 124 0.1 Richie Gardner
Jared Biddy 5.9 2.9 1.3 7.2% 14.9% .303 96 105 0.1 John Doherty
Ben Bowden 10.9 5.3 1.5 12.9% 26.7% .314 98 102 0.1 Brian Fuentes
Matt Dennis 5.4 3.0 1.8 7.3% 13.0% .320 80 125 0.1 Don August
Nate Griep 8.1 5.8 1.3 13.8% 19.5% .293 94 106 0.1 Ruddy Lugo
Jordan Sheffield 8.6 5.2 1.3 12.7% 21.0% .289 95 105 0.0 Mark Acre
Tyler Kinley 9.5 4.8 1.5 11.9% 23.9% .289 95 106 0.0 Alan Mills
Heath Holder 7.8 4.5 1.6 10.9% 18.9% .306 88 113 0.0 Marcus Gwyn
Jose Mujica 6.3 2.8 2.0 6.9% 15.4% .312 79 127 0.0 Mark Johnson
Reagan Todd 8.4 4.1 1.6 10.2% 20.9% .303 94 107 0.0 Steve Frey
Tommy Doyle 7.5 4.1 1.6 10.0% 18.5% .302 93 108 0.0 Steve LaRose
Yency Almonte 8.6 5.0 1.5 12.0% 20.9% .305 93 107 0.0 Kevin Barry
Brian Gonzalez 7.5 4.4 1.7 10.6% 18.1% .309 84 119 0.0 Brad Weis
Julian Fernández 7.8 4.2 1.5 10.3% 19.2% .300 93 108 0.0 Gene Stechschulte
Chi Chi González 5.7 3.6 1.9 8.8% 13.9% .305 78 128 0.0 Brian Cooper 쿠퍼
Logan Cozart 7.8 3.6 1.6 8.8% 19.5% .307 93 108 0.0 Jesus Colome
Chad Smith 8.6 5.9 1.1 14.2% 20.6% .305 92 109 0.0 Clay Bryant
JD Hammer 9.0 4.7 1.7 11.5% 22.0% .302 89 113 -0.1 Tom Shearn 션
Garrett Schilling 6.4 4.2 2.0 10.0% 15.1% .319 76 132 -0.1 Rocky Biddle
Nelson Gonzalez 7.6 4.8 2.0 11.5% 18.2% .302 80 125 -0.1 Jason Childers
Joe Harvey 9.6 5.5 1.9 13.2% 23.2% .299 82 123 -0.2 John Briscoe
Justin Lawrence 7.7 6.4 1.1 15.0% 18.1% .308 84 118 -0.3 Ryan Henderson
Karl Kauffmann 4.8 4.4 1.9 10.4% 11.3% .308 74 135 -0.3 Jim Henderson
Tate Scioneaux 7.6 3.2 2.0 8.0% 18.8% .307 83 120 -0.3 Jim Czajkowski
Chris Rusin 5.7 3.5 2.0 8.4% 13.8% .308 76 131 -0.3 Chris Michalak
Ian Clarkin 4.1 4.9 1.7 11.4% 9.4% .305 71 141 -0.4 Roger McDowell
Yoan Aybar 6.9 6.9 1.5 15.9% 15.9% .304 75 133 -0.6 Chad Brown
Nick Kennedy 7.2 4.1 2.3 9.7% 17.0% .318 71 142 -0.7 John Duffy

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

One of the things that bothers me is when teams dramatically change their evaluations of players. When you refuse to trade a guy for anything less than a major haul and then sell at their lowest possible point, it speaks badly about the evaluation. Either you were wrong before or you’re wrong now; it’s a lose-lose.

There are a lot of examples like that with the Rockies but Jon Gray is the one that stands out to me right now. I didn’t mind the Rockies not trading Jon Gray but then letting him go without even issuing him the QO was pretty bad. The team’s not good by any means, and Jon Gray’s fastball is pretty bad, but it’s so hard to find pitchers who can pitch at Coors successfully. If they had a consistent rotation they could maybe they could spend their way into being a .500 team, like by getting some tweener outfield types in the corners and a stopgap in CF like Odubel Herrera. But now even that looks a bit iffy.

jfree
Member
jfree

It is not at all difficult to find pitchers who can pitch at Coors successfully. They only need to pitch a bit better than the opposing pitcher – who never pitches much at Coors.

What is difficult is finding a pitcher who can pitch at both Coors (using metrics that are going to be UNIQUE for a successful pitcher at altitude) and on the road (using the sorts of metrics that every other team in baseball – non-altitude – uses to define a successful pitcher). It’s a very similar problem to the Rockies hitter problem on the road. It’s the road that is the problem. Not Coors.

matt
Member
matt

Funny cause i think the opposite. Changing your evaluations of players is a good thing, it shows an openness to be “wrong” and not just be hard headed into your initial view.

As it relates to Gray though, nothing changed, he’s the same guy he’s usually been. He stated through the media that he wanted to be back and not join a super team, my guess here is the Rockies thought that meant he’d take a big discount. Which obviously isn’t the case, they misread it like usual. Don’t think their eval of gray has changed.

Jason B
Member
Member
Jason B

“Either you were wrong before or you’re wrong now; it’s a lose-lose.”

Yeah, I side with Matt here – if you were wrong before but reevaluated to become more “right” now, that’s a win, not a loss. That could be a “we over-evaluated this guy and he’s a bum, let’s cut bait” – if you’re right now and you realize he’s not worth the time or trouble, that’s a win. Or if it’s “we under-evaluated this guy and now realize he’s a franchise cornerstone, or we can get a haul for him!” that’s also a win.

Unfortunately the Rockies DO go lose-lose most often, in a myriad of ways. Sometimes it’s over-evaluating their own talent and then sticking with them when it’s painfully obvious they’re nothing special; or mis-evaluating and overpaying free agents (a long and rich history from Denny Neagle and Mike Hampton right up through Ian Desmond); or under-evaluating their own guys and then selling them off for little to nothing or letting them walk entirely (like Gray). They find new and inventive ways to go lose-lose.

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

This is going to sound weird, but the Rockies problem is that their evaluation of players is extremely present-focused instead of thinking about what their future will look like. Players who are playing well are off-limits. Players who are playing badly must be shipped off. The idea that maybe they should just wait for players to start playing well again or that they should trade a guy before his stock totally plummets is not part of their thought process.

To some extent this happens to every team; the Brewers would have been better trading Villar after he 2015 than shipping him out with a prospect for Jonathan Schoop, and the Twins would have been wise to move on from Brian Dozier after 2017. But with the Rockies it happens repeatedly. The Rockies have somehow managed to mishandle all of Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu, and Jon Gray in roughly the same way. Of those, Gray is probably the most egregious, simply because they let him go for nothing, and LeMahieu is probably the least egregious. But it’s enough of a pattern that I don’t think it’s an accident. If Marquez gets off to a slow start again I half expect them to dump him for pennies only for him to rebound elsewhere.

mariodegenzgz
Member
mariodegenzgz

I agree with this entire tweet except for the Márquez part. The chances of him getting traded are below 0%.