2022 ZiPS Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Batters

The offensive projections are kind of bleak, but they also represent the 2022 highlight for the Pirates, at least if ZiPS is correct. The offense basically consists of three highly interesting (in a good way) players.

When all is said and done, Oneil Cruz may end up having the best career of the three. The team’s sixth-ranked prospect entering 2021, Cruz destroyed minor league pitching on his return to Double-A. In a week for Triple-A Indianapolis, Cruz went 11-for-21 with five homers in six games, resulting in him getting a call-up for the final weekend of the season. Cruz is a physical anomaly, a 6-foot-7 player who can credibly play shortstop and run the bases very well. While there will naturally always be whispers about a shortstop that big staying at the position — and Cruz has gained about 30 pounds since his early prospect days — the Pirates aren’t in a position that should preclude them from letting him play there as long as he can. It’s what the O’s should have done with Manny Machado years ago, but they instead prioritized J.J. Hardy. The projection is even more exciting when you realize how few games ZiPS is projecting for Cruz due to various injuries and the missing COVID season.

I hope that Ke’Bryan Hayes isn’t doomed to always have his production compared to the impressive offensive numbers he put up in his debut in 2020. Coming off a .751 OPS Triple-A stint in 2019, he was never really supposed to be that type of player. Instead, the expectation for Hayes should have been that of a roughly average offensive third baseman with solid power upside and a fantastic glove. Still, 2021’s offense was likely on the low end of what we’ll see from Hayes offensively, as he was dealing with wrist issues all year. A computer system is going to have a lot of trouble with a guy playing through an injury — as will anyone making an evaluation of a player in that situation — and I would definitely take the over on this projection.

And then there’s Bryan Reynolds, whose projection will likely inspire readers to take to Twitter to tell me that regression toward the mean doesn’t count this time. Breakout seasons are a frequent source of this, generally because people wildly overestimate how often breakout seasons actually establish a new baseline of performance. There’s a reason why “just use last year” performs so poorly as a projection system. But let’s do a little better and illustrate this phenomenon.

To get a quick sense, I looked at every hitter who had a season of at least five WAR, but fewer than seven WAR, at ages 25-27. I further limited it to players for whom this was at least a two-win improvement on their last career-best single-season WAR to that point. In other words, I captured players with breakouts of similar size and quality at similar ages to Reynolds (Age 26, 5.5 WAR, previous best 3.2). I also eliminated the players who didn’t play the following season (all six of these players served in World War II). That leaves us with 146 players.

The average WAR for those 146 players in their breakout year was 5.8. The average in the following season? 3.5, with a median of 3.4:

  • 15 of the 146 players (10.2%) matched the WAR from their breakout year.
  • 33 of the 146 players (22.6%) managed at least five wins the following season.
  • 61 of the 146 players (41.8%) fell short of three wins the following season.
  • In the following season, 20.5% fell short of two wins, 6% were short of one win, and one unfortunate was below replacement level.

The player who was below replacement level was Cito Gaston, who hit .318/.364/.543 for the 1970 Padres. In his remaining eight seasons in the majors, he hit .245/.286/.375 with -3.4 WAR, though he had better fortune as a manager. If I limited the scope of the career-bests to only include players with two-to-three win breakouts (Reynolds’ was 2.3), none of the basic stats changed. In that case, the average WAR the following season was 3.4; nothing else changed meaningfully.

Does this mean that Reynolds won’t match his 2021 season? Of course not. Some of those 146 players did. By and large, they had good, long careers; the players in this group finished with an average of 31.7 WAR (ZiPS projects Reynolds to finish with 30.9). Fourteen of those players ended up in the Hall of Fame, including Honus Wagner, Edgar Martinez, Willie McCovey, Andre Dawson, and Billy Williams, and others might some day (Joey Votto, Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, Ken Boyer). If Reynolds can establish his 2021 as a new baseline, he may join them. But that’s not the way to bet in 2022.

Just to finish this section, while there’s no doubt a lot of consternation about the Pirates trading Jacob Stallings, he’s also a catcher who turns 32 next week. And the team didn’t replace him with a butcher behind the plate; Roberto Pérez has a long history of being a solid defensive backstop. In this case, it’s just a smart baseball move; having both Pérez and Zach Thompson is more valuable than just having Stallings. Stallings is entering his first year of arbitration — at least under the old CBA — and at $5 million for Pérez, the swap might actually end up being more expensive for the Pirates, not less.

Pitchers

My plan was to write so many words about the offense that my editor might not notice that I didn’t write anything about the pitching. But editors are tricksy, so I’m going to have to do it.

ZiPS does not care for the pitchers currently employed by the Pittsburgh Pirates. With the Baltimore Orioles, ZiPS at least liked John Means, saw some great, quick upside in Grayson Rodriguez, and gave the bullpen passable marks. So think of this pitching staff as The Orioles Without the Good Parts, which sounds like the catchphrase for the least successful advertising campaign in the history of commerce.

At $2 million, José Quintana has the benefit of at least being interesting. While he underperformed what the Cubs were expecting when they sent Eloy Jiménez to the White Sox, he was rarely awful and generally durable until he lacerated his thumb washing dishes and eventually required surgery. (This is why I own a dishwasher!) Quintana’s contract is basically beans in baseball terms, and if he bounces back, the Pirates could get a pretty good return in trade come July. Plus, the team has to actually play the season, and to do so, the Pirates have to figure out how to get something like 4,000 batters out, a task they’re poorly equipped to handle.

All joking aside, while none of the Pirates’ starting pitchers are even-money to be two-win contributors in 2022, at least some will get there, and the organization is quite deep in those one-to-two win pitchers. The book’s still not closed on Mitch Keller, and Zach Thompson was quietly effective in Miami and could crafty-righty his way into being a mid-rotation fixture. Roansy Contreras shot up the prospect rankings in 2021, figuring out how to punch out batters at a rate he hadn’t been able to pre-COVID, all without adding walks into the mix. Contreras projects with an ERA+ over 100, the only projected full-time starter to do so.

As for the bullpen, ZiPS does really like David Bednar, a hard thrower with a splitter towards the fastball side of the spectrum, who appeared to have a breakout in 2021.

As for the rest of the bullpen, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit, sed do eiusmod FIP tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis WAR nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate 162 2/3 innings velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur walk rate sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, Colorado Rockies sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum.

Will the Pirates ever field a consistently competitive team? Perhaps, but it’s unlikely that it will happen in 2022. The bigger picture is murky, however; the team’s last period of playoff relevance fell short in large part because ownership wasn’t willing to invest significantly in the team during the years when that investment mattered. As long as the team refuses to use savings from down cycles to fund bursts in the up cycles, the Pirates will be doomed to brief spurts of high-quality play.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Bryan Reynolds B 27 CF 636 558 89 156 32 7 22 82 68 132 5 3
Ke’Bryan Hayes R 25 3B 471 425 56 108 26 3 10 46 39 102 9 1
Oneil Cruz L 23 SS 361 334 41 90 16 5 17 49 24 85 15 3
Greg Allen B 29 LF 437 389 56 99 20 4 6 36 26 89 19 5
Hoy Park L 26 2B 442 378 59 91 18 4 9 39 53 97 11 5
Matt Fraizer L 24 CF 500 456 62 114 24 4 12 48 37 114 9 4
Travis Swaggerty L 24 CF 469 421 51 102 13 2 10 34 42 124 17 6
Jamie Ritchie R 29 C 334 293 39 74 16 1 4 26 33 63 1 1
Roberto Pérez R 33 C 303 264 26 52 7 1 9 31 31 92 1 0
Kevin Newman R 28 SS 566 526 57 139 25 4 7 47 30 53 9 4
Jared Triolo R 24 3B 464 429 69 111 27 2 5 49 28 96 13 3
Cole Tucker B 25 SS 462 411 52 92 19 5 8 38 44 109 10 4
Michael Chavis R 26 2B 397 366 47 89 16 2 17 51 21 118 3 2
Rodolfo Castro B 23 3B 478 442 52 98 21 2 18 57 25 124 6 4
Nick Gonzales R 23 2B 398 367 49 83 21 2 9 39 26 104 5 1
Diego Castillo R 24 2B 466 426 49 106 23 1 10 38 32 63 7 3
Hunter Owen R 28 3B 386 351 41 74 13 1 16 46 21 135 2 2
Canaan Smith-Njigba L 23 LF 384 339 52 78 15 1 9 38 42 102 10 2
Liover Peguero R 21 SS 444 415 49 96 18 2 8 35 23 115 19 4
Ben Gamel L 30 LF 388 335 44 84 20 3 7 27 46 97 4 5
Tucupita Marcano L 22 2B 497 447 63 106 14 3 6 36 44 75 11 7
Bligh Madris L 24 C 305 277 36 69 12 2 6 27 24 91 4 2
Jack Suwinski L 23 RF 470 411 55 92 18 3 17 49 49 134 7 4
Ji-hwan Bae L 22 2B 411 373 44 90 15 4 7 30 31 95 16 7
Michael Perez L 29 C 249 225 24 46 10 1 7 27 21 67 0 1
Will Craig R 27 1B 420 378 47 85 18 1 15 50 31 114 1 2
Yoshi Tsutsugo L 30 1B 439 377 49 85 19 1 15 50 52 104 0 1
Mason Martin L 23 1B 514 462 59 96 25 2 23 73 35 181 1 2
Gregory Polanco L 30 RF 430 380 48 86 20 2 16 48 41 112 13 1
Chris Sharpe R 26 CF 421 373 45 74 22 1 8 35 35 133 7 5
Eli Wilson R 23 C 242 216 38 49 11 1 4 24 20 62 0 0
Colin Moran L 29 1B 425 382 40 98 19 1 13 60 36 98 1 1
Connor Kaiser R 25 SS 266 235 25 42 8 0 5 19 26 76 2 1
Anthony Alford R 27 LF 383 344 46 79 18 2 10 43 33 134 14 8
Phillip Evans R 29 1B 431 381 47 89 18 1 8 36 41 80 2 2
Wilmer Difo B 30 2B 350 317 37 76 11 3 4 26 29 74 4 2
Jared Oliva R 26 CF 397 361 43 78 17 4 4 29 27 105 17 5
Blake Sabol L 24 C 304 275 35 61 11 2 6 26 25 92 4 2
Lolo Sanchez R 23 LF 465 415 66 103 17 2 8 42 34 79 20 8
Taylor Davis R 32 C 231 206 26 48 6 0 3 17 21 33 0 0
Andrew Susac R 32 C 85 74 8 14 3 0 3 7 10 25 1 1
Dylan Busby R 26 3B 372 333 36 57 11 2 13 38 32 165 1 1
Joe Hudson R 31 C 188 170 18 31 6 0 4 15 14 55 0 0
Dee Strange-Gordon L 34 SS 346 326 33 84 12 4 3 23 12 47 11 5
Todd Frazier R 36 1B 432 385 47 87 17 1 12 54 35 94 2 2
Bligh Madris L 26 RF 451 404 51 91 21 2 8 42 36 98 2 3
Ethan Paul L 25 2B 179 160 20 29 5 0 1 9 17 61 3 0
Connor Scott L 22 RF 485 458 49 109 24 4 9 39 23 107 11 6
Cal Mitchell L 23 RF 480 446 58 108 20 1 12 51 21 98 4 4
Fabricio Macias R 24 RF 430 405 52 103 17 2 5 39 16 100 9 7
Jason Delay R 27 C 187 175 16 31 6 1 5 16 9 61 1 0
Arden Pabst R 27 C 235 224 19 39 8 1 6 22 8 81 0 1
Brendt Citta R 25 1B 196 180 22 40 9 2 2 16 11 45 1 2
Matt Gorski R 24 CF 383 354 42 69 15 1 6 31 22 123 11 1
Carter Bins R 23 C 296 257 41 53 8 0 6 24 32 86 2 2
Chase Murray L 24 LF 129 124 10 27 3 0 2 8 3 38 4 2
Will Matthiessen R 24 1B 348 321 41 66 13 1 7 31 24 127 1 2
Grant Koch R 25 C 308 284 29 51 10 0 5 23 20 73 0 1
Aaron Shackelford L 25 1B 404 373 42 69 15 1 10 38 22 132 2 1

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Bryan Reynolds .280 .362 .480 126 .201 .332 6.5 -4 3.9 Bernie Williams
Ke’Bryan Hayes .254 .319 .400 94 .146 .313 4.8 10 2.5 Ty Wigginton
Oneil Cruz .269 .319 .500 117 .231 .315 6.2 0 2.5 Adam Jones
Greg Allen .254 .327 .373 90 .118 .316 4.7 7 1.4 Reggie Williams
Hoy Park .241 .338 .381 95 .140 .301 4.6 -1 1.3 Robinson Chirinos
Matt Fraizer .250 .309 .399 90 .149 .309 4.5 0 1.2 Felix Jose
Travis Swaggerty .242 .311 .354 80 .112 .321 4.1 4 1.2 Jon Jay
Jamie Ritchie .253 .336 .355 85 .102 .310 4.3 1 1.1 Jim Sundberg
Roberto Pérez .197 .284 .333 67 .136 .264 3.2 8 1.0 Steve Yeager
Kevin Newman .264 .307 .367 82 .103 .283 4.1 -1 1.0 Paul Zuvella
Jared Triolo .259 .305 .366 81 .107 .323 4.2 2 0.9 John Wehner
Cole Tucker .224 .302 .353 77 .129 .286 3.8 1 0.8 Eric Riggs
Michael Chavis .243 .295 .437 95 .194 .312 4.6 -4 0.8 Matt Macri
Rodolfo Castro .222 .267 .400 78 .179 .267 3.7 6 0.8 John Valentin
Nick Gonzales .226 .282 .368 75 .142 .291 3.7 4 0.7 Nick Green
Diego Castillo .249 .306 .378 84 .129 .272 4.2 -2 0.7 Brent Butler
Hunter Owen .211 .273 .390 77 .179 .290 3.6 4 0.7 Ryan Minor
Canaan Smith-Njigba .230 .316 .360 83 .130 .303 4.2 3 0.6 Rich Becker
Liover Peguero .231 .274 .342 66 .111 .301 3.6 4 0.6 Greg Gagne
Ben Gamel .251 .344 .391 99 .140 .333 4.6 -3 0.5 Pat Sheridan
Tucupita Marcano .237 .304 .322 70 .085 .273 3.4 4 0.5 Ever Magallanes
Bligh Madris .249 .309 .372 84 .123 .350 4.1 -4 0.5 Al Lopez
Jack Suwinski .224 .308 .406 92 .182 .288 4.3 -2 0.4 Dan Meier
Ji-hwan Bae .241 .303 .359 79 .118 .306 3.9 -1 0.4 Juan Bell
Michael Perez .204 .273 .351 68 .147 .258 3.2 4 0.4 Tom Nieto
Will Craig .225 .295 .397 85 .172 .281 4.0 5 0.4 Vito Chiaravalloti
Yoshi Tsutsugo .225 .320 .401 94 .175 .271 4.4 -1 0.4 Ray Giannelli
Mason Martin .208 .273 .420 84 .212 .283 3.8 6 0.4 Tom Forrester
Gregory Polanco .226 .302 .416 92 .189 .278 4.7 -4 0.3 Ted Wood
Chris Sharpe .198 .279 .327 64 .129 .284 3.0 5 0.2 Pat Dobson
Eli Wilson .227 .303 .343 75 .116 .300 3.6 -3 0.2 Lou Marson
Colin Moran .257 .322 .414 98 .157 .314 4.8 -5 0.2 Matthew LeCroy
Connor Kaiser .179 .265 .277 48 .098 .240 2.4 6 0.1 Gil Velazquez
Anthony Alford .230 .308 .381 86 .151 .345 4.1 -1 0.1 Larry Bigbie
Phillip Evans .234 .316 .349 81 .115 .276 3.8 2 0.1 Paul Torres
Wilmer Difo .240 .304 .331 73 .091 .301 3.6 -1 0.0 Jose Uribe
Jared Oliva .216 .283 .319 63 .102 .294 3.3 2 0.0 Rashad Eldridge
Blake Sabol .222 .287 .342 70 .120 .311 3.4 -4 -0.1 Darryl Cias
Lolo Sanchez .248 .317 .357 83 .108 .290 4.2 -3 -0.1 Coco Crisp
Taylor Davis .233 .306 .306 67 .073 .265 3.3 -3 -0.2 Bob Swift
Andrew Susac .189 .294 .351 74 .162 .239 3.3 -3 -0.2 Henry Blanco
Dylan Busby .171 .255 .333 58 .162 .284 2.7 4 -0.2 Duane Thielen
Joe Hudson .182 .242 .288 43 .106 .243 2.3 3 -0.3 Charlie Greene
Dee Strange-Gordon .258 .288 .347 71 .089 .293 3.7 -5 -0.3 Craig Reynolds
Todd Frazier .226 .306 .369 82 .143 .269 3.9 -2 -0.3 Todd Zeile
Bligh Madris .225 .291 .347 72 .121 .279 3.4 1 -0.5 Erold Andrus
Ethan Paul .181 .268 .231 38 .050 .286 2.2 1 -0.5 Andrew Parrino
Connor Scott .238 .277 .367 73 .129 .292 3.6 1 -0.5 Robin Jennings
Cal Mitchell .242 .283 .372 76 .130 .286 3.7 -1 -0.6 Chris Gwynn
Fabricio Macias .254 .293 .343 72 .089 .327 3.5 0 -0.6 Victor Mata
Jason Delay .177 .225 .309 43 .131 .239 2.3 -2 -0.7 Fausto Tejero
Arden Pabst .174 .205 .299 34 .125 .241 1.9 3 -0.7 Paul Chiaffredo
Brendt Citta .222 .281 .328 65 .106 .286 3.0 -2 -0.7 Roberto Alvarez
Matt Gorski .195 .244 .294 45 .099 .280 2.7 2 -0.8 Brian McLamb
Carter Bins .206 .305 .307 67 .101 .285 3.1 -12 -1.0 Trey Lunsford
Chase Murray .218 .240 .290 43 .073 .298 2.4 -3 -1.0 Michael Massaro
Will Matthiessen .206 .262 .318 56 .112 .316 2.7 1 -1.2 Mark Razook
Grant Koch .180 .238 .268 37 .088 .223 2.0 -8 -1.8 Jose Molina
Aaron Shackelford .185 .237 .311 47 .126 .255 2.4 1 -1.9 John Lindsey

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
JT Brubaker R 28 8 8 4.46 23 22 115.0 113 57 17 40 112 4.38
Mitch Keller R 26 8 9 4.72 30 28 133.3 143 70 18 59 126 4.53
Roansy Contreras R 22 4 4 4.16 16 16 71.3 70 33 9 24 67 4.12
Cody Bolton R 24 7 7 4.50 21 21 90.0 90 45 11 36 79 4.38
Bryse Wilson R 24 8 9 4.78 27 25 131.7 143 70 22 38 99 4.81
Max Kranick R 24 7 8 4.72 25 25 110.7 119 58 15 39 88 4.63
Jose Quintana L 33 5 6 4.63 28 18 103.0 106 53 15 39 100 4.30
Zach Thompson R 28 5 4 4.30 36 10 81.7 80 39 11 29 74 4.33
Trey McGough L 24 5 6 4.79 24 17 97.7 107 52 13 30 64 4.71
David Bednar R 27 3 2 3.56 58 0 60.7 49 24 7 23 76 3.41
Chad Kuhl R 29 5 6 4.76 25 15 79.3 76 42 11 43 76 4.92
Omar Cruz L 23 6 7 5.04 20 20 89.3 96 50 12 39 67 4.90
Trevor Cahill R 34 4 5 4.76 19 11 64.3 64 34 9 28 54 4.77
Carmen Mlodzinski R 23 3 4 4.78 18 16 58.3 60 31 7 26 47 4.67
Cody Ponce R 28 5 6 4.80 29 9 86.3 92 46 14 31 77 4.72
Miguel Yajure R 24 4 5 4.91 18 15 73.3 76 40 12 27 60 4.94
Dillon Peters L 29 4 6 5.09 22 18 93.7 101 53 16 32 80 4.88
Steven Brault L 30 3 4 4.92 20 12 67.7 67 37 9 36 57 5.04
Chris Stratton R 31 5 5 4.58 54 5 88.3 86 45 12 36 91 4.14
James Marvel R 28 7 9 5.26 25 23 130.0 147 76 19 50 86 5.07
Osvaldo Bido R 26 6 8 5.26 23 21 101.0 111 59 14 42 70 5.02
Noe Toribio R 22 2 3 4.99 15 9 52.3 58 29 7 19 34 4.88
Alex Manasa R 24 2 2 4.79 24 4 71.3 79 38 9 22 46 4.62
Jeffrey Passantino R 26 4 5 5.21 19 13 74.3 82 43 13 25 59 5.04
Kyle Nicolas R 23 4 6 5.33 23 22 99.7 103 59 16 54 90 5.24
Sam Howard L 29 4 4 4.63 53 4 58.3 51 30 10 33 75 4.74
Duane Underwood Jr. R 27 3 4 4.79 43 5 82.7 84 44 13 36 80 4.74
Yerry De Los Santos R 24 3 3 4.10 21 0 26.3 25 12 3 11 25 4.13
Bear Bellomy R 25 5 5 4.57 33 1 63.0 66 32 8 20 48 4.45
Beau Sulser R 28 6 8 5.37 26 19 109.0 125 65 17 42 73 5.19
Anthony Banda L 28 4 5 4.95 37 5 76.3 80 42 12 33 65 4.97
Wil Crowe R 27 5 8 5.46 26 25 118.7 128 72 21 56 104 5.32
Keury Mella R 28 4 6 5.21 34 11 86.3 92 50 14 39 70 5.16
Kyle Keller R 29 2 2 4.67 45 1 52.0 46 27 8 27 61 4.62
Kyle Crick R 29 3 3 4.58 44 0 39.3 34 20 4 24 42 4.58
Nick Mears R 25 3 3 4.70 46 0 44.0 42 23 7 21 47 4.68
Chasen Shreve L 31 3 3 4.72 55 0 53.3 50 28 9 26 54 4.92
Austin Roberts R 23 3 4 4.71 38 0 63.0 64 33 9 26 56 4.69
Blake Cederlind R 26 3 4 4.77 42 0 54.7 54 29 6 29 51 4.44
Blake Weiman L 26 2 3 4.84 35 0 44.7 46 24 7 16 39 4.68
Cristofer Melendez R 24 3 3 4.85 35 0 42.7 41 23 5 25 39 4.77
Shea Spitzbarth R 27 3 3 4.80 49 0 54.3 53 29 8 25 50 4.80
Jerad Eickhoff R 31 5 7 5.65 19 18 86.0 97 54 18 30 70 5.49
Shelby Miller R 31 2 3 5.55 25 8 47.0 48 29 7 29 43 5.33
Joe Jacques L 27 2 3 4.89 36 0 49.7 50 27 5 27 42 4.61
Zach Matson L 26 2 3 4.97 35 0 41.7 37 23 5 31 46 4.98
Travis MacGregor R 24 5 8 5.71 22 21 88.3 98 56 14 45 65 5.47
Tyler Bashlor R 29 2 2 5.02 43 0 43.0 43 24 7 21 38 5.20
Eric Hanhold R 28 2 2 5.04 40 0 44.7 47 25 6 20 36 4.79
Hunter Stratton R 25 2 3 5.09 38 1 53.0 50 30 6 36 51 4.93
Luis Oviedo R 23 2 4 5.85 26 7 47.7 49 31 8 34 44 5.84
Cam Alldred L 25 2 2 5.04 35 0 60.7 63 34 8 33 47 5.17
Braeden Ogle L 24 4 5 5.13 44 0 52.7 52 30 8 29 49 5.12
Matt Eckelman R 28 3 4 5.07 39 0 60.3 65 34 8 25 44 4.84
Cam Vieaux L 28 5 7 5.80 24 17 90.0 100 58 17 44 71 5.69
Tanner Anderson R 29 4 7 5.72 29 9 74.0 86 47 12 30 43 5.50
Nathan Kirby L 28 1 2 5.65 33 2 43.0 42 27 6 33 43 5.44
Chase De Jong R 28 3 6 6.24 17 16 79.3 91 55 18 36 63 6.05

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
JT Brubaker 8.8 3.1 1.3 8.0% 22.5% .299 97 103 1.3 Adam Eaton
Mitch Keller 8.5 4.0 1.2 9.8% 21.0% .321 91 110 1.1 Bob Veselic
Roansy Contreras 8.5 3.0 1.1 7.8% 21.8% .300 104 97 1.0 Steve Cooke
Cody Bolton 7.9 3.6 1.1 9.1% 20.0% .299 96 104 1.0 Dave Weathers
Bryse Wilson 6.8 2.6 1.5 6.7% 17.4% .297 90 111 0.9 Dave Telgheder
Max Kranick 7.2 3.2 1.2 8.0% 18.0% .306 91 109 0.9 Sergio Mitre
Jose Quintana 8.7 3.4 1.3 8.7% 22.3% .311 93 107 0.9 Rick Honeycutt
Zach Thompson 8.2 3.2 1.2 8.2% 21.0% .295 100 100 0.8 Terry Leach
Trey McGough 5.9 2.8 1.2 7.0% 15.0% .298 90 111 0.7 Kevin Pickford
David Bednar 11.3 3.4 1.0 9.1% 30.2% .292 121 83 0.6 Kyle Farnsworth
Chad Kuhl 8.6 4.9 1.2 12.0% 21.3% .294 91 110 0.6 Kiko Calero
Omar Cruz 6.8 3.9 1.2 9.7% 16.7% .302 86 117 0.4 Rich Rundles
Trevor Cahill 7.6 3.9 1.3 9.9% 19.1% .291 91 110 0.4 Craig McMurtry
Carmen Mlodzinski 7.3 4.0 1.1 10.0% 18.0% .299 90 111 0.4 Ronnie Ray
Cody Ponce 8.0 3.2 1.5 8.2% 20.3% .307 90 111 0.4 Jose Silva
Miguel Yajure 7.4 3.3 1.5 8.4% 18.6% .292 88 114 0.4 Anthony Kelley
Dillon Peters 7.7 3.1 1.5 7.8% 19.4% .305 85 118 0.4 Jamie Moyer
Steven Brault 7.6 4.8 1.2 11.8% 18.6% .291 88 114 0.4 Les Walrond
Chris Stratton 9.3 3.7 1.2 9.4% 23.8% .306 94 106 0.3 Tim Worrell
James Marvel 6.0 3.5 1.3 8.6% 14.7% .303 82 122 0.3 Jim Magrane
Osvaldo Bido 6.2 3.7 1.2 9.3% 15.4% .301 82 122 0.3 Marcus Jones
Noe Toribio 5.8 3.3 1.2 8.2% 14.6% .300 86 116 0.2 Bob Keppel
Alex Manasa 5.8 2.8 1.1 7.0% 14.7% .302 90 111 0.2 Matt Schwager
Jeffrey Passantino 7.1 3.0 1.6 7.6% 18.0% .304 83 121 0.2 Elmer Dessens
Kyle Nicolas 8.1 4.9 1.4 11.9% 19.8% .301 81 124 0.2 Dustin McGowan
Sam Howard 11.6 5.1 1.5 12.7% 28.8% .297 93 107 0.2 Ricky Pickett
Duane Underwood Jr. 8.7 3.9 1.4 9.8% 21.9% .305 90 111 0.2 Steve Shields
Yerry De Los Santos 8.5 3.8 1.0 9.6% 21.9% .297 105 95 0.1 Chris Resop
Bear Bellomy 6.9 2.9 1.1 7.3% 17.5% .299 94 106 0.1 Randy Graham
Beau Sulser 6.0 3.5 1.4 8.6% 14.9% .306 80 124 0.1 Don August
Anthony Banda 7.7 3.9 1.4 9.7% 19.1% .301 87 115 0.1 Trever Miller
Wil Crowe 7.9 4.2 1.6 10.4% 19.3% .306 79 127 0.1 Greg Keagle
Keury Mella 7.3 4.1 1.5 10.1% 18.0% .299 83 121 0.1 Dave Stevens
Kyle Keller 10.6 4.7 1.4 11.7% 26.5% .292 92 108 0.0 Dwayne Henry
Kyle Crick 9.6 5.5 0.9 13.5% 23.6% .291 94 106 0.0 John Briscoe
Nick Mears 9.6 4.3 1.4 10.8% 24.2% .299 92 109 -0.1 Alan Sontag
Chasen Shreve 9.1 4.4 1.5 11.1% 23.1% .287 91 110 -0.1 Valerio de los Santos
Austin Roberts 8.0 3.7 1.3 9.4% 20.1% .301 91 109 -0.1 Will Cunnane
Blake Cederlind 8.4 4.8 1.0 11.8% 20.8% .306 90 111 -0.1 John Trautwein
Blake Weiman 7.9 3.2 1.4 8.2% 20.0% .298 89 112 -0.1 Danny Zell
Cristofer Melendez 8.2 5.3 1.1 13.0% 20.2% .295 89 112 -0.1 Anthony Chavez
Shea Spitzbarth 8.3 4.1 1.3 10.4% 20.8% .292 90 111 -0.1 Steve Wapnick
Jerad Eickhoff 7.3 3.1 1.9 7.8% 18.2% .303 76 131 -0.1 Jose Lima
Shelby Miller 8.2 5.6 1.3 13.3% 19.7% .301 78 129 -0.1 Jarod Juelsgaard
Joe Jacques 7.6 4.9 0.9 12.0% 18.7% .304 88 113 -0.2 Geoff Jones
Zach Matson 9.9 6.7 1.1 16.1% 23.8% .296 87 115 -0.2 Steve Colyer
Travis MacGregor 6.6 4.6 1.4 11.1% 16.0% .303 76 132 -0.2 Chris Enochs
Tyler Bashlor 8.0 4.4 1.5 10.9% 19.7% .290 86 116 -0.2 John Kiely
Eric Hanhold 7.3 4.0 1.2 10.0% 18.0% .301 86 117 -0.2 Erik Schullstrom
Hunter Stratton 8.7 6.1 1.0 14.8% 20.9% .297 85 118 -0.2 Jeff Smith
Luis Oviedo 8.3 6.4 1.5 15.0% 19.5% .299 74 136 -0.3 Robert Tenenini
Cam Alldred 7.0 4.9 1.2 11.9% 17.0% .297 86 117 -0.3 Mike Venafro
Braeden Ogle 8.4 5.0 1.4 12.2% 20.6% .295 84 119 -0.3 Josh Outman
Matt Eckelman 6.6 3.7 1.2 9.3% 16.4% .302 85 118 -0.3 Rob Marquez
Cam Vieaux 7.1 4.4 1.7 10.7% 17.2% .302 74 134 -0.3 Brian Forystek
Tanner Anderson 5.2 3.6 1.5 8.9% 12.8% .300 75 133 -0.4 Jeff Farnsworth
Nathan Kirby 9.0 6.9 1.3 16.3% 21.2% .303 76 131 -0.4 Bill White
Chase De Jong 7.1 4.1 2.0 9.9% 17.4% .302 69 145 -0.6 Mike Saipe

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Is Vito Chiaravalloti the #1 comp for Will Craig, or is he the guy who threatened Craig’s kneecaps if he didn’t move overseas after the Javy Baez rundown?