Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 12/13/2021

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. The site my say 1pm, so until that’s fixed, this is for Twitter followers who I told well, WE’RE DOING IT LIVE! Anyway, happy Monday all. Let’s go.

Dave: What’s for lunch?

Kevin Goldstein: Leftover pasta from last night.

Inaccessible Rail: Does strength really matter that much when it comes to hitting the ball hard? Or is it bat speed that really matters?

Kevin Goldstein: Hard to generate bat speed without strength . . .

Astros guy: For years the Astros FO avoided Whitley and Tucker from any trades, looking back was there any player that would’ve been worth it to trade for?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh yeah, at least for Whitley. I can’t think off-hand about a Tucker ask that would have made sense.

Becker: When free agents set self-imposed deadlines (not something like signing before the lockout but more regular scenarios like wanting to sign by Thanksgiving) does that help or hurt them? Or neither, and it just merely accelerates things?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve never seen eat hurt a player, but I’ve also never seen a player put out a self-imposed deadline without already being well down the road with a few teams.

Egg Salad: Quitting my secure job to take a front office internship—am I an idiot?

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe? Hard to say without knowing the role and the club, but seriously, if it doesn’t work out, you’ll still have some stories for life. I’m a big fan of taking risks and leaps of faith, so I’m going to say this is a good thing.

Scotty: KG! If the lockout lasts long enough that games are missed, will the schedule be reworked so every team plays inter-division teams equally?

Kevin Goldstein: Impossible to know, but it just adds to what needs to be negotiated. I’m starting to think we’ll miss some games. Not a huge chunk, but I don’t think either side is going to get down to brass taxes until there is real pressure, and think we could end up playing 154 or something.

Eric: I have a gut feeling that “pitch overlay” video clips are hokum…that any pitcher with a consistent release point could  be the subject of impressive-looking video snippets. Am I wrong?

Kevin Goldstein: No, you are correct. They are super fun, but in terms of informing you about a pitcher, they are, to use your term, hokum.

Vince L.: Are teams still talking trade now, even during this “freeze”?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re not allowed to, and the messaging from MLB to teams about not having such discussions has been . . . pretty serious. I don’t think talks are down to zero, but I do think they are dramatically reduced.

Facundo: How involved are the front offices in the CBA negotiation? How far down the ladder does this go?

Kevin Goldstein: VERY little. The owners are very involved, and some GMs and that’s about it. I’m sure some people below the GM if they need to figure out how proposal A or B impacts revenue, but that’s about it.

Guest: What are the chances of a jose ramirez trade to toronto and who may be sent the other way?

Kevin Goldstein: Very small; a lot.

John: Is it tough to make a FO impact without coding experience?

Kevin Goldstein: Plenty of people in front offices don’t know R or python. There are more than just analyst roles to fill.

Justin: Do teams set payrolls based on the previous year’s revenues?  Revenue projections for that year? something else?

Kevin Goldstein: All over the board. Some are like what you put above, and sometimes the owner’s other business had a good year and suddenly you have an extra $20 million to mess with (or not).

Facundo: Do you have any favorite in the Mets manager search? How much do you think a manager affect the results?

Kevin Goldstein: I think all three finalists are good. There’s no ‘uh-oh’ choice among them. I’m rooting for Espada, and they GREATLY affect the results.

Jamie: What do you know about Brent Strom’s replacements in Houston

Kevin Goldstein: Josh Miller and Bill Murphy are both phenomenal.

joe: Is there real concern that Freeman could leave ATL?

Kevin Goldstein: There should be. I’m not saying he’s leaving, but it’s certainly a distinct possibility.

Tanner: Approximately how many people are interviewed from the hundreds of applicants for a typical low level baseball ops position?

Kevin Goldstein: 10-15 initial phone conversations, 3-5 interviews.

Aiden: Why is depth charts so high on the Yankees?

Kevin Goldstein: Why should it not be?

enigman77: Beer Nuggets?

Kevin Goldstein: Had some a couple of weeks ago!

DW: 1. How much does a FO think a good manager vs. a “bad” manager impact wins and losses 2. Biases aside (having worked with Espada, of the Mets 3 managerial candidates, who do you think they should go with? #Mets

Kevin Goldstein: On No. 1, again, a LOT. More than I think a lot of people realize. On No. 2, yeah, I’m biased and think Joe would be great. Hard to argue with any of the three finalists. It’s a really good group.

Toshi: I’ve read somewhere that the Mariners have a system in which teenagers they signed from latin American countries stay in their facility for months to learn English and American culture, in addition to training in baseball. My questions are, (1) Do you think this is a good idea? (2) Do many teams do something similar?  Thank you.

Kevin Goldstein: Every team does something similar, but I’m not sure it’s something that should be done with EVERY player.

Dan: A while ago you told a story about trying to get cricket players to come play baseball but found they made more than Mike trout. I could only found evidence that They made 1-4 million plus tens of millions in endorsements. Did I fail at research or was they something about their endorsements that wouldn’t have allowed them to make that money while playing in North America instead of India?

Kevin Goldstein: If they’re not playing cricket and trying to hit in the Midwest League, those endorsements aren’t going to be around….

Sal: Do you think all draft picks become tradeable in the new CBA? Some?

Kevin Goldstein: We just don’t know. I think picks in rounds 1-10 should be tradeable.

Inaccessible Rail: There are a bunch of good podcasts on FG. But sports talk radio, at least where I live, is unbelievably bad. Why can’t sports talk radio be more like FG podcasts?

Kevin Goldstein: We serve a niche audience, so we can put out good shows that serve niche audiences. I know there are people who love EW, and hate my show . . . so everyone has different tastes. Sports radio has to appeal to a very wide and general audience so it’s hard for them to really appeal to someone looking for niche content.

Danny Boy: If you were a betting man, would you bet on an international draft in the next CBA?

Kevin Goldstein: I would. I don’t think it’s a for sure thing, but I think it’s probably going to happen.

Inaccessible Rail: Have you met the other FG writers? Do you all just have email/text/Zoom relationships?

Kevin Goldstein: Most of them, yes. We all gathered safely in AZ a few weeks ago. The other 362 days of the year it’s Slack and texts and believe it or not, we actually talk on the phone sometimes!

Jordan: One piece of advice for someone starting a baseball operations role within a front office fairly soon

Kevin Goldstein: It’s on YOU to manage the work/life balance.

Carter: With all the talk of pace of play recently, do you have any idea why there isn’t more pressure on umpires to enforce the pitch timing rule already on the books (rule 8.04, when the bases are unoccupied, the pitcher shall deliver the ball to the batter within 12 seconds after he receives the ball) or why they stopped with the “one foot in the box” thing for batters?

Kevin Goldstein: We don’t need umpires counting. We need a clock visible to all. Nothing would impact pace of play in a more dramatic way, and it should be instituted immediately.

John: Who in the FO usually initiates trade discussions (GM to GM? AGMs?) Does it usually start with a call about one specific player to open things up?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve written about this at Fangraphs! Look it up! It’s GMs and AGMs and directors and others and sometimes it gets pushed up the chain, and sometimes it doesn’t. I’ve started discussions that I certainly didn’t finish, and I’ve negotiated one deal from start to finish.

Jeremy: When reporters are hyping one managerial candidate so much more than others, is there a typical reason for that? A favor for an agent? Putting what the team wants out there? Genuinely trying to affect the decision?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re NOT going to affect the decision, at least they certainly should NOT affect the decision.

Guest: Do you think that Jeff Luhnow has a chance to get back into baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t. I think there was a window where if he apologized and was contrite about it, he might get a look, but I think that window closed.

Joey: Do you think you personally could have value working for the FO of an NFL/NBA/NHL/pro soccer team without much or any experience in that sport?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know. Like I think I could catch on in some ways, but lacking a passion for the game it probably wouldn’t work out.

Dave: Do you follow NIU football? Hell of a turnaround for Hammock & co

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t, but I know they won the MAC, which is something they’ve done a lot since I moved here.

Matt: How would you try to make the Phillies into a contender, without just spending money like crazy? Mini rebuild? go bargain shopping?  Trade what few minor leaguers you have?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, why can’t they spend money too?

Jacob: why are you worried about losing some games next year as opposed to just a couple of weeks ago when you weren’t as worried?

Kevin Goldstein: Just in talking to people on both sides of the (very deep) trench, it feels like both sides are far more dug in than I thought.

Eric: When you said earlier that managers greatly affect a team’s results, were you thinking more along the line of strategic (pre-game/in-game) decisions or in creating a professional, positive atmosphere in which players play their butts off.

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, the strategy stuff is a single digit percentage of a manager’s job. The other stuff might be soft science and really hard to quantify, but it’s very real.

Justin: Is Jon Singleton gonna mash?

Kevin Goldstein: How great would that be?

DJ: Can you win a World Series with Andrelton Simmons at SS and Aaron Hicks in CF ?

Kevin Goldstein: Like just those two players? No. You’d really get exposed defensively. Need a whole team I think.

171: Most sports talk radio/tv is just produced to generate clicks and interaction. I can’t watch/listen to two people argue about sports topics and feel interested when I know that before the show they had a meeting where each person picked a side of each point to argue and most of the opinions aren’t genuine. That’s the best part about FG and other sites, the things being expressed have real backings.

Kevin Goldstein: I do think there are some people doing interesting stuff in sports radio.

Jacob: Do front offices have Financial Analyst roles or is the finance portion just done by some of the regular data analysts?

Kevin Goldstein: Some do. Not all, but some do.

zurzles: Not sure if this was already talked about somewhere, but the first two prospect lists have been credited to Eric/Tess and Eric/Brendan. Were you involved with these lists/writeups? Can you give us the inside baseball on how the rankings and writeups are produced?

Kevin Goldstein: You might want to listen to the next episode of Chin Music. It’s drops on Friday.

Jason: did you ever use the media to create a more robust trade market for a player? i.e telling the media that x amount of teams are interested, when its really much less

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve seen in happen, but no, I never did it.

Matthew: We saw a few rule 5 MiLB picks traded within hours for cash. How do these usually happen? After the pick is made? Arranged beforehand? “Hey if Player X is still there when you pick next, we’ll give you $50k to pick him for us?”

Kevin Goldstein: Always beforehand. The team was taking to player for his new team and the deal was already arranged.

David: What would give someone a strong edge when applying to work for a front office?

Kevin Goldstein: Tell a team what you can do for them that helps them. Don’t go with any kind of “I’ll do anything to work in baseball” route.

Mac: What do you think about the proposal where the first team to miss the playoffs gets pick 1-1?

Kevin Goldstein: Dig it.

Steve O: Is expanded playoffs bad for baseball or good for baseball? Why would a team spend when an 80 win team with a little luck can be a playoff team?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, it’s going to happen, so good or bad might not matter. I think it’s good in that we starting each season with a double-digit number of teams we just know aren’t going to matter. That’s no good.

Curious guy: Curious to know, do FOs members usually read BA, Baseball Prospectus  and Fangraphs?

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely. Many also incorporate third-party rankings into their various models.

jj: brass tacks

Kevin Goldstein: That too.

Dan: Should we all quit our jobs just so we can watch more baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean . . . you have a few months to figure that out?

Christian Colon for Men: Do front office members have lunch/dinner/drinks with agents, and if so, do they have to pay for their own food and drink?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve had some drinks bought for me, but nothing crazy.

Jonny: What is your opinion of Carlos Beltran as a possible managerial candidate?

Kevin Goldstein: If Hinch and Cora got second chances (and I’m fine with them getting them), I think he deserves one too.

David: What makes you so sure that the playoffs will be expanded? It seems like the players have pushed back pretty strongly.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s the player’s biggest bargaining chip, and one I think (and hope) they will use in the right way, but I do think they’re going to use it.

Adam: The Yankees and Padres each have notable 2023 J2 signing commitments. If there is an International Draft implemented in the next CBA, are those agreements scrubbed or do you think the draft would not begin until after a certain grace period?

Kevin Goldstein: Those agreements would be scrubbed.

John Jay (Cubs) Singles Through the Shift: What kind of front office jobs with a meaningful baseball operations component are available to someone without coding knowledge?

Kevin Goldstein: Scouting, coordinators, various ops roles…lots of ’em really.

Dan: Who is the weakest player who would be an MVP if they time traveled as is to the 1920s

Kevin Goldstein: Some Double-A org player you and I have maybe never heard of.

Guest: What’s an office Christmas party like in baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: Really fancy. Big event at the stadium. Black tie. Usually some kind of charitable aspect to it.

Aearl00: How much of an added bonus is coding skills if your goal is working in amateur scouting?

Kevin Goldstein: Depends on the team. At times it can be a big deal. There are obviously still tons of boots on the ground scouts that are VERY MUCH needed, but a lot of teams are also employing scouting analysts, who are more data and video-based, and thus, the coding is a nice thing to see.

David: What are front offices most actively working on when the offseason feels most dead to fans?

Kevin Goldstein: Amateur and international stuff. I know of a couple of teams that have have big PD get togethers…

Jack: What keeps Oakland competitive so often? Many teams get sucked into rebuild cycles that they seemingly can’t get out of – it seems like the A’s pop back up in a new form every time after a year or two when their budget dictates that they need to rebuild. Is the brainpower in their front office really still among the best in MLB?

Kevin Goldstein: It really is.

Brian: Do you just not like answering hypothetical questions? This is my first time reading your chat and it’s kind of annoying to see you answering these questions literally. The phillies question was a fun hypothetical. We all know they can spend money, that was such a boring answer. And DJ was obviously asking how viable it would be for the Yankees to go with Simmons and Hicks instead of making bigger acquisitions like they’ve been rumored to.

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe I’m just not your style. No, I don’t like hypotheticals, as they tend to be a waste of time, because the path from any hypothetical to reality is filled with so many unknowns. As a rule I don’t answer them, and I don’t entertain made up trades, but sometimes I have a funny answer (maybe only funny to me, and that’s enough for me!) and I go with it.

Richie: Answer the ACTUAL! question asked. When reporters hype one particular managerial candidate, what if anything is going on there? (“I dunno” is fine for an answer, as is just not posting the question; but going off on your own irrelevant tangent, that’s irritating!)

Kevin Goldstein: It’s a very cranky group today. It’s my chat. I choose the questions to answer, and I’m going to answer them. I try to share my thoughts and educate and entertain. Why are you getting so worked up about this? When reporters hype one candidate, maybe they think he’s the best candidate? Maybe they like the person? It feels like you are looking for some kind of answer to fit some kind of narrative, frankly.

Stormin’ Norman: Why is MLB network showing nothing but baseball games from yesteryear, Labor strife related?

Kevin Goldstein: Pretty much. Have you seen the MLB.com website lately? It’s really weird.

Jacob: I laughed at the answer to the Simmons and Hicks question!

Kevin Goldstein: That’s two of us!

Inaccessible Rail: Sorry some guys are giving you such a hard time today. I’m embarassed on behalf of the FG readership.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s fine. The FG readers and commenters and podcasts listeners are an overwhelmingly wonderful group.

Ben: If a very high percentage of a prospects’ homers came with two strikes, would you consider that to be beneficial or not very important?

Kevin Goldstein: I wouldn’t make any assumptions off that. It’s just very incomplete information. What’s’ the sample size? What were the pitches?

Guest: Thank you for introducing me to the Bad Bad Hats, seeing them in Feb

Kevin Goldstein: Whee! People getting into podcast music makes me happy.

Becker: NOT INCLUDING guys you know from the Astros, who would you like to see be an MLB manager for the first time?

Kevin Goldstein: Will Venable.

Ex Libris: Know you have said you don’t read management books that pass around the office but have you ever given a book recommendation to a staffer while with Houston?  Or a player

Kevin Goldstein: There were some magic realism fiction books I recommended to someone who asked what I read, but that’s about it.

Jacob: Just curious who are you talking to on the Owners side? Is it FO folks or MLB office folks?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes.

VERY ANGRY CHAT QUESTION ASKER PERSON!: Boy the lockdown is affecting these guys HARD.  Chill the F out, Fellas.  Kevin’s doing us a solid here.

Kevin Goldstein: And all of you are doing me a solid by asking so many good questions and hanging out with me for 90 minutes, but yeah, it’s a baseball chat, we can have a little fun here.

David: What are some of those magic realism fiction books you have recommended?

Kevin Goldstein: Various Coover, DeLilo, The Magus by Fowles, etc.

Steve: You’ll know things are getting serious when MLB Network only shows games from 1994

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve actually really enjoyed watching some of these [ducks].

Quarantino Martinez: Is it weird that we know what players make and not what owners make?

Kevin Goldstein: The players think so.

Dave: Stearns brought in Singleton and White, Elias brought in Nottingham (and Ruiz before that, and others). Curious why you think GMs are attracted to failed prospects they are familiar with from prior jobs. Is it simply that, familiarity? But they didn’t work out, why would it be different now?

Kevin Goldstein: There certainly is a bit of a devil you know aspect to it. Teams need depth and teams need backup plans and teams need break glass in case of emergency players.

Jacob: What teams are trying the most interesting things to you in the analytics/player development spaces?

Kevin Goldstein: Dodgers, Astros, Rays, Giants come to mind immediately. There are more.

KB: How extensive is a team’s projection/scouting database? Translations for every league on the face of the planet? I’m imagining Clay Davenport level data on steroids haha.

Kevin Goldstein: It varies from team to team, and the good ones are the ones most willing to admit that many of them are highly flawed.

Aearl00: Has there ever been a time when you thought the Astros had a deal to either trade for or sign a player and it never happened?

Kevin Goldstein: Holy crap so many times. Biggest one was going to bed in the team hotel quite sure that the team had acquired Bryce Harper.

Devil you know…: Do any teams hire outside help to make their front office hires?  So many industries do but it seems like in baseball it’s all

Kevin Goldstein: There’s Korn Ferry, which does a lot of the GM search stuff, but not really at the lower levels.

Jack: In the scenario you outlined where some games would be missed (the hypothetical 154 game season), is your thinking that an agreement would come together sometime in March with an abbreviated offseason/Spring Training. Essentially – how much time would there need to be between agreement and opening day?

Kevin Goldstein: I think things start to get dicey around 2/1. I think you’d need about a two-week ramp up, just logistically to get spring starting on time. So yeah, my most likely scenario is a compressed ST that begins in March, a delay to the season starting on time, some scheduling work to mitigate the damage with double-headers and the like, and somewhere around 154.

Vince L.: Are trades usually a one-on-one conversation, or does a GM usually have his AGM and others involved in trade talks?

Kevin Goldstein: They’re weird. It’s mostly a one-on-one conversation, but at the same time, the most likely response to a change in an offer is “I’ll take it to the group.” Then the inner circle huddles and discusses and decides how to respond. Like I handled some FA negotiations, but I wasn’t the one deciding on the offers or the counters. Those were group decisions with the GM having the ultimate say.

BlueJayMatt: Do teams ever go back and re-evaluate a failed trade? If they target a player and he turns out to be terrible do they re-visit their thinking and valuation that was completed prior to the trade to make changes to (hopefully) do better next time?

Kevin Goldstein: ALL THE TIME. I know I certainly spent far more time trying to figure out mistakes than celebrate any successes.

KB: Why doesn’t college baseball use wood bats?

Kevin Goldstein: Wood bats break, and good ones are really expensive.

Pat: When a guy is traded for cash considerations, how much cash are we talking?

Kevin Goldstein: Usually somewhere around the claim price. 25-50K.

Kevin Goldstein: Entering the final stretch….

Pat: On the rule where the 1st team to miss the playoffs gets the 1st pick- If there was a “generational” prospect at 1-1 (Strasburg, Harper), would a team ever “tank” to get that player as opposed to a 1 game play in with long shot odds to win the WS?

Kevin Goldstein: Probably. Any system is going to have scenarios like this. We just need a ruleset that tries its best to disincentive it.

Guest: Do FO have to put together a 1-5yr plan for ownership that details how they fill the roster and when they may need a bigger bump in payroll?

Kevin Goldstein: Not really with specific players, but certainly a path to contention (and more) with an idea of where payroll bumps will be needed.

KB: I remember when I was a kid my cousin sent a letter Pudge Rodriguez and he received this cool letter back from Pudge. Obviously it was just a form letter that was sent to everyone who contacted him but as a kid I still thought it was super neat. Is sending mail to players still a thing that fans do?

Kevin Goldstein: Very much so.

Guest: Theoretical stat line for Babe Ruth (if alive and in his prime) playing baseball today if he trained and was developed as he was in reality?

Kevin Goldstein: I just don’t know. I wish I knew! But I just don’t know. The ‘trained and was developed’ part is the real X factor. I feel VERY strongly that if you just dropped 1920s Babe Ruth into 2021 baseball, he’d struggle in the low minors, but how he’d do with modern coaching/development/nutrition/etc is a bit of a black box for me.

Matt: (because of the magical realism books question) Are you watching wheel of time?  What do you think of the show and did you read the books?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m not and I didn’t. I like my magic realism to take place in contemporary times. I’m not a big swords and sorcery type.

Guest: Equivalence of what happened in F1 yesterday applied to MLB? Yankees down in the 9th in the 7th game of the WS but given a 3 run lead to start the inning?

Kevin Goldstein: I have no idea what happened in F1 yesterday. I have no idea how the NFL playoff races are shaping up. I don’t know who’s good in the NBA or NHL. I know the MLS championship game was over the weekend, but I don’t know who played or who won. I can’t name a single college basketball or college football player. Really, unless it happened in baseball or sumo, I just have no ability to discuss anything in sports on any level.

RFLMBillyFish: Does it feel to you that 1B defense is harder to learn than it’s given credit for? So many guys get pushed there in late development but it looks really damned difficult to me.

Kevin Goldstein: [Ron Washington voice]: It’s incredibly hard.

Danny: Do you think Joey Gallo could be the Yankees’ semi-regular CF?

Kevin Goldstein: Can? Yes. Should? No.

Krusty: Building off the Babe Ruth question: how would a flamethrower like 1968 Bob Gibson fare if he was dropped into MLB in 2021?

Kevin Goldstein: 4-5 starter is the gut feel answer.

Aearl00: Is there usually any consequences for people who are leaking info to the media or is it a generally accepted part of working in a FO

Kevin Goldstein: Depends on the team. I worked for a front office that played things very close to the vest. My rule when working with others in the front office was always I will trust you with confidential information until you give me a reason not to.

SJ: Estimate the number of times you’ve told somebody what you do for a living and they’ve responded “oh like Moneyball?”

Kevin Goldstein: 273.

171: If you took Degrom and put him in baseball 50 years from now, how would he fare?

Kevin Goldstein: History tells us not very well.

Kevin Goldstein: Well, speaking of history, this chat is now history! Thanks for all the great questions and sorry for the little mid-chat rant there. I really do have fun with these and really do enjoy doing them, but in a world of awfulness, let’s try to have a little fun when we can, huh?