2023 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

Yesterday, I compared the Seattle Mariners to the St. Louis Cardinals. Today, it’s time for the real thing. The Cardinals possess that extra thumper I wish the Mariners had in the form of Paul Goldschmidt. Otherwise, the lineups don’t look all that dissimilar: Nolan Arenado plays an older superstar third base version of Julio Rodríguez while the rest of the lineup is low-key, solid, and not particularly exciting, at least at the plate. The Cardinals are rarely a bad team, and it would be tremendously challenging for them to be one in 2023. Want to know one of my favorite freak stats? The last time the Cardinals ranked worse than 20th in baseball in wRC+ was in 1978. From Whiteyball to Jockettynomics to Moneyball to Mozeliakanalia, the Cards almost always manage to score runs.

In any given season, Arenado and Goldschmidt will compete to be the best at their respective positions. Still, I would take the under on our depth charts’ playing time projections, as both are at the age where declines in playing time due to injury are expected, especially Goldschmidt. Add in Tommy Edman, who may be the most underrated shortstop in baseball, and better-than-league average performances pretty much everywhere else, and this is a team that should dominate every NL Central team other than the Brewers.

The Cards are so solid that they’re almost uninteresting, just as Mike Trout can sometimes seem a bit boring compared to more volatile (and flawed) stars. If there’s a weakness here, it might be the lack of usable depth in the high minors to serve as midseason reinforcements. Jordan Walker’s projection looks a little disappointing on the surface, but ZiPS has him with huge upside numbers in 2024 and beyond. The role player depth is thinner, though; a lot of the usual cast of Triple-A hangers-on have moved on in minor league free agency and ZiPS isn’t particularly impressed with additions like Taylor Motter and Juniel Querecuto. But there’s still time for the Cardinals to add more NRIs, so I wouldn’t necessarily call this a done deal.

Pitchers

You’ll notice a bit of a disconnect between the pitching staff’s projected WAR and ERA figures, with the latter a lot more fun than the former. This is a relic of the team’s outstanding defensive projections, even with Harrison Bader in New York. As a result, the ERAs are a lot lower than the FIPs across the board, and while ZiPS WAR gives more credit to a pitcher than just using FIP, in this case it’s mostly the defense.

That’s not to say the Cards have a bad rotation — it just lacks the exciting highlights the offense possesses. Once you accept that there’s a good chance that peak Jack Flaherty isn’t coming back, there’s nobody here who really blows you away, except maybe Jordan Montgomery during his run late last summer. It’s a quietly competent starting five and there’s more depth in the upper minors than there is with the lineup.

The biggest disagreements between ZiPS and Steamer appear to be in the bullpen. Where Steamer views the team’s bullpen as middle of the pack, ZiPS much prefers the team’s second-tier relievers, seeing Chris Stratton, Génesis Cabrera, and Andre Pallante as plus contributors, while Steamer thinks of them as closer to replacement level. Only the season will sort out which computer is correct.

My think the Cards are a 89-93 win team and not quite in the tier of the very best in baseball, but ZiPS disagrees, putting St. Louis in the same range as the Padres, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and Mets. My personal feeling is that the Cards really need a true ace at the top of the rotation, but perhaps that’s just my inclination to play devil’s advocate. ZiPS has beat me before (see the Tigers last year!).

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.