2023 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the St. Louis Cardinals.

Batters

Yesterday, I compared the Seattle Mariners to the St. Louis Cardinals. Today, it’s time for the real thing. The Cardinals possess that extra thumper I wish the Mariners had in the form of Paul Goldschmidt. Otherwise, the lineups don’t look all that dissimilar: Nolan Arenado plays an older superstar third base version of Julio Rodríguez while the rest of the lineup is low-key, solid, and not particularly exciting, at least at the plate. The Cardinals are rarely a bad team, and it would be tremendously challenging for them to be one in 2023. Want to know one of my favorite freak stats? The last time the Cardinals ranked worse than 20th in baseball in wRC+ was in 1978. From Whiteyball to Jockettynomics to Moneyball to Mozeliakanalia, the Cards almost always manage to score runs.

In any given season, Arenado and Goldschmidt will compete to be the best at their respective positions. Still, I would take the under on our depth charts’ playing time projections, as both are at the age where declines in playing time due to injury are expected, especially Goldschmidt. Add in Tommy Edman, who may be the most underrated shortstop in baseball, and better-than-league average performances pretty much everywhere else, and this is a team that should dominate every NL Central team other than the Brewers.

The Cards are so solid that they’re almost uninteresting, just as Mike Trout can sometimes seem a bit boring compared to more volatile (and flawed) stars. If there’s a weakness here, it might be the lack of usable depth in the high minors to serve as midseason reinforcements. Jordan Walker’s projection looks a little disappointing on the surface, but ZiPS has him with huge upside numbers in 2024 and beyond. The role player depth is thinner, though; a lot of the usual cast of Triple-A hangers-on have moved on in minor league free agency and ZiPS isn’t particularly impressed with additions like Taylor Motter and Juniel Querecuto. But there’s still time for the Cardinals to add more NRIs, so I wouldn’t necessarily call this a done deal.

Pitchers

You’ll notice a bit of a disconnect between the pitching staff’s projected WAR and ERA figures, with the latter a lot more fun than the former. This is a relic of the team’s outstanding defensive projections, even with Harrison Bader in New York. As a result, the ERAs are a lot lower than the FIPs across the board, and while ZiPS WAR gives more credit to a pitcher than just using FIP, in this case it’s mostly the defense.

That’s not to say the Cards have a bad rotation — it just lacks the exciting highlights the offense possesses. Once you accept that there’s a good chance that peak Jack Flaherty isn’t coming back, there’s nobody here who really blows you away, except maybe Jordan Montgomery during his run late last summer. It’s a quietly competent starting five and there’s more depth in the upper minors than there is with the lineup.

The biggest disagreements between ZiPS and Steamer appear to be in the bullpen. Where Steamer views the team’s bullpen as middle of the pack, ZiPS much prefers the team’s second-tier relievers, seeing Chris Stratton, Génesis Cabrera, and Andre Pallante as plus contributors, while Steamer thinks of them as closer to replacement level. Only the season will sort out which computer is correct.

My think the Cards are a 89-93 win team and not quite in the tier of the very best in baseball, but ZiPS disagrees, putting St. Louis in the same range as the Padres, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, and Mets. My personal feeling is that the Cards really need a true ace at the top of the rotation, but perhaps that’s just my inclination to play devil’s advocate. ZiPS has beat me before (see the Tigers last year!).

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Nolan Arenado R 32 3B 598 538 67 147 35 1 25 92 50 73 4 2
Paul Goldschmidt R 35 1B 616 538 88 148 31 1 26 94 70 136 6 1
Tommy Edman B 28 SS 633 581 91 152 31 5 13 65 41 103 26 3
Willson Contreras R 31 C 477 412 61 98 21 1 19 64 44 111 3 3
Dylan Carlson B 24 CF 576 509 75 127 30 4 15 66 53 120 6 3
Paul DeJong R 29 SS 480 426 56 90 19 0 20 60 41 130 5 3
Tyler O’Neill R 28 LF 459 410 67 102 18 1 22 71 38 130 12 3
Alec Burleson L 24 LF 514 478 57 129 21 3 16 68 30 87 3 1
Lars Nootbaar L 25 RF 439 373 63 85 19 3 18 56 57 92 5 1
Nolan Gorman L 23 2B 523 474 78 110 18 0 29 78 44 177 3 1
Brendan Donovan L 26 2B 531 456 69 115 23 1 6 52 59 86 3 3
Kramer Robertson R 28 SS 483 414 59 88 16 2 7 49 55 106 12 5
Juan Yepez R 25 LF 480 441 55 116 22 0 24 74 31 110 0 1
Yadier Molina R 40 C 353 332 30 82 14 0 7 39 14 56 3 1
Oscar Mercado R 28 CF 431 392 53 94 21 3 9 50 30 78 13 4
Jordan Walker R 21 3B 515 468 67 111 25 3 12 66 36 133 11 3
Taylor Motter R 33 SS 338 297 36 64 13 1 13 40 37 88 1 1
Chase Pinder R 27 LF 290 251 29 51 9 0 6 29 32 75 2 3
Jose Fermin R 24 3B 379 334 52 79 11 1 5 44 29 55 6 4
Andrew Knizner R 28 C 289 257 30 59 11 0 5 26 24 58 1 1
Iván Herrera R 23 C 386 340 38 76 12 2 8 40 36 90 2 1
Scott Hurst L 27 CF 373 335 40 72 12 1 6 35 34 100 6 4
Aaron Antonini L 24 C 244 214 22 40 7 0 4 25 18 59 1 1
Juniel Querecuto B 30 SS 403 378 44 95 17 3 9 43 22 86 6 3
Mike Antico L 25 CF 528 483 55 102 23 3 10 55 38 147 26 4
Pedro Pages R 24 C 337 304 27 61 13 0 6 34 26 105 1 1
Noah Mendlinger L 22 3B 275 236 29 54 9 1 1 24 25 47 3 2
Irving Lopez L 28 3B 313 284 32 62 12 2 3 30 19 67 2 1
Masyn Winn R 21 SS 542 494 70 110 26 5 7 53 39 135 21 4
Nick Dunn L 26 2B 445 403 42 93 17 2 4 39 34 61 2 1
Justin Toerner L 26 CF 376 326 42 64 12 1 6 36 38 122 5 2
Matt Koperniak L 25 LF 425 386 42 92 16 1 7 49 26 87 5 3
Nick Raposo R 25 C 208 191 22 41 10 1 3 21 15 56 1 1
Moisés Gómez R 24 RF 473 432 52 84 19 1 17 59 35 190 4 2
Jacob Buchberger R 25 3B 405 375 34 81 12 3 5 38 27 98 7 2
Chandler Redmond L 26 1B 381 349 36 71 14 1 12 45 28 141 1 1
Tyler Reichenborn R 24 LF 451 404 38 86 15 3 6 44 31 111 7 6
Cory Spangenberg L 32 3B 400 373 44 78 14 3 7 41 22 147 11 2
Francisco Hernandez R 23 2B 366 334 34 63 13 2 3 29 27 119 8 4
Luken Baker R 26 1B 477 441 41 93 20 0 15 57 30 139 0 1
Mack Chambers B 23 SS 273 250 33 53 10 1 3 22 19 63 4 2
L.J. Jones R 24 DH 414 387 39 83 19 1 8 45 17 101 1 1
Roberto Baldoquin R 29 3B 241 219 19 45 7 0 0 19 15 54 1 1
Jonah Davis L 25 CF 271 239 27 35 7 2 7 30 23 139 2 2
Aaron McKeithan R 23 C 293 264 23 56 9 1 3 30 19 69 0 1
Todd Lott R 25 RF 449 418 44 85 20 2 9 53 18 155 3 2

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Nolan Arenado 598 .273 .339 .481 127 .208 .277 9 5.3 .349
Paul Goldschmidt 616 .275 .360 .481 134 .206 .324 3 4.3 .362
Tommy Edman 633 .262 .316 .399 99 .138 .299 7 4.2 .311
Willson Contreras 477 .238 .335 .432 113 .194 .280 -3 3.1 .334
Dylan Carlson 576 .250 .326 .413 106 .163 .299 -2 2.5 .320
Paul DeJong 480 .211 .290 .397 90 .185 .254 6 2.4 .298
Tyler O’Neill 459 .249 .320 .459 115 .210 .310 2 2.4 .334
Alec Burleson 514 .270 .313 .427 105 .157 .301 6 2.2 .319
Lars Nootbaar 439 .228 .328 .440 113 .212 .255 3 2.1 .330
Nolan Gorman 523 .232 .300 .454 108 .222 .302 -6 2.1 .323
Brendan Donovan 531 .252 .353 .346 98 .094 .299 -2 2.1 .315
Kramer Robertson 483 .213 .321 .312 79 .099 .269 4 1.9 .288
Juan Yepez 480 .263 .315 .476 118 .213 .300 -4 1.7 .337
Yadier Molina 353 .247 .283 .352 77 .105 .279 6 1.4 .277
Oscar Mercado 431 .240 .302 .378 89 .138 .279 1 1.4 .297
Jordan Walker 515 .237 .299 .380 89 .143 .307 -2 1.2 .295
Taylor Motter 338 .215 .302 .397 94 .182 .260 -5 0.8 .303
Chase Pinder 290 .203 .301 .311 73 .108 .265 10 0.8 .277
Jose Fermin 379 .237 .313 .320 77 .084 .270 0 0.5 .285
Andrew Knizner 289 .230 .309 .331 80 .101 .278 -2 0.6 .285
Iván Herrera 386 .224 .304 .341 81 .118 .281 -6 0.6 .286
Scott Hurst 373 .215 .290 .310 69 .096 .288 4 0.5 .269
Aaron Antonini 244 .187 .276 .276 56 .089 .238 4 0.4 .252
Juniel Querecuto 403 .251 .293 .384 77 .132 .304 -2 0.4 .292
Mike Antico 528 .211 .277 .333 70 .122 .282 -2 0.3 .269
Pedro Pages 337 .201 .270 .303 61 .102 .285 2 0.3 .256
Noah Mendlinger 275 .229 .321 .288 73 .059 .282 0 0.3 .279
Irving Lopez 313 .218 .285 .306 66 .088 .276 3 0.3 .265
Masyn Winn 542 .223 .280 .338 72 .115 .293 -7 0.2 .271
Nick Dunn 445 .231 .297 .313 72 .082 .263 -2 0.1 .271
Justin Toerner 376 .196 .297 .294 67 .098 .293 -1 0.1 .269
Matt Koperniak 425 .238 .300 .339 79 .101 .291 1 0.0 .283
Nick Raposo 208 .215 .274 .325 67 .110 .288 -2 0.0 .264
Moisés Gómez 473 .194 .258 .361 71 .167 .298 5 -0.1 .268
Jacob Buchberger 405 .216 .272 .304 62 .088 .279 1 -0.2 .255
Chandler Redmond 381 .203 .268 .352 72 .149 .301 2 -0.4 .271
Tyler Reichenborn 451 .213 .280 .309 66 .097 .279 4 -0.5 .263
Cory Spangenberg 400 .209 .258 .319 61 .110 .324 -5 -0.8 .253
Francisco Hernandez 366 .189 .254 .266 47 .078 .283 1 -0.8 .235
Luken Baker 477 .211 .264 .358 73 .147 .272 -1 -1.0 .271
Mack Chambers 273 .212 .268 .296 59 .084 .272 -9 -1.1 .249
L.J. Jones 414 .214 .259 .331 64 .116 .270 0 -1.1 .258
Roberto Baldoquin 241 .205 .274 .237 46 .032 .273 -5 -1.1 .236
Jonah Davis 271 .146 .244 .280 47 .134 .301 -6 -1.2 .239
Aaron McKeithan 293 .212 .283 .288 61 .076 .276 -13 -1.2 .258
Todd Lott 449 .203 .254 .325 61 .122 .299 -3 -1.4 .254

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Nolan Arenado Mike Lowell Aramis Ramirez Cal Ripken
Paul Goldschmidt Pedro Guerrero Lou Gehrig Edgar Martinez
Tommy Edman Rafael Furcal Erick Aybar Bert Campaneris
Willson Contreras Carlton Fisk Ray Mueller Gabby Hartnett
Dylan Carlson Bob Elliott Bernie Williams Dion James
Paul DeJong Danny Espinosa Lee Elia Jim Riggleman
Tyler O’Neill Teoscar Hernández Bobby Bonds Austin McHenry
Alec Burleson Tony Oliva Warren Cromartie Jimmy Welsh
Lars Nootbaar Cody Bellinger Red Barnes Tommy Henrich
Nolan Gorman Hector Cruz Mickey Klutts Austin Riley
Brendan Donovan Mike Andrews Jose Oquendo Edgar Martinez
Kramer Robertson Lyn Lary Pumpsie Green James Rice
Juan Yepez Daryle Ward Cotton Nash Juan Gonzalez
Yadier Molina Eddie Perez Bo Diaz Sandy Alomar
Oscar Mercado Dell Alston Harry Walker Manuel Margot
Jordan Walker Bobby Murcer Nick Senzel Dilson Herrera
Taylor Motter Tim Teufel Eric Chavez Luis Valbuena
Chase Pinder Mike Papi David Keel Roy Cullenbine
Jose Fermin Peter Maris Rob Belloir Rico Rossy
Andrew Knizner Mark Strittmatter Jeff Reed Matt Treanor
Iván Herrera Greg Mahlberg Doug Robbins Eric Christopherson
Scott Hurst Aaron Cain Rhadames Mills Ryan Christenson
Aaron Antonini Tanner Murphy James Powers Kyle Pollock
Juniel Querecuto Michael Martinez Cristian Guzman Brad Boyer
Mike Antico Clete Thomas Blake Tekotte Mark Davis
Pedro Pages Jason Townley Cameron Rupp Ryan Christianson
Noah Mendlinger Noel Finley Eddie Cornejo Raymond Rivas
Irving Lopez Greg Fulton Juan Delis Jorge Deleon
Masyn Winn Alfredo Griffin Arismendy Alcantara Jerry Royster
Nick Dunn Ramon Aviles Chip Hale Carlos Rodriguez
Justin Toerner Randy Curtis Ryan Aguilar Jackson Brennan
Matt Koperniak Tim Smith Bob Hartsfield Al Smith
Nick Raposo Don Bryant Tim McConnell Darryl Cias
Moisés Gómez Tony Armas Mike Kelly Casey Golden
Jacob Buchberger Ron Marigny Ramiro Pena Matt Witkowski
Chandler Redmond Joe Gerber Rod McCall Kyle Roller
Tyler Reichenborn David Kandilas Conner Capel Brock Davis
Cory Spangenberg Welington Dotel Carlos Duncan Larry Raines
Francisco Hernandez Wayne Busby Albert Cartwright Darrin Duffy
Luken Baker Adell Davenport Rene Lachemann Mike Bianucci
Mack Chambers Yoel Romero Tommy Watkins Robert Townsend
L.J. Jones Eddie Pearson 피어슨 Al Jimenez Steve Eddie
Roberto Baldoquin Yovan Gonzalez B.J. Guinn Jeff Bianchi
Jonah Davis Al Shirley Doug O’Neill Marlan Murphy
Aaron McKeithan John McLaren George Enright Adan Amezcua
Todd Lott Brandon Barnes 반즈 Todd Glaesmann Bryan Bogle

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Nolan Arenado .299 .369 .535 148 7.0 .249 .314 .432 107 3.7
Paul Goldschmidt .298 .382 .532 152 5.6 .252 .332 .433 116 2.9
Tommy Edman .288 .342 .440 117 5.6 .239 .292 .358 83 2.8
Willson Contreras .263 .362 .487 135 4.3 .209 .314 .375 93 1.9
Dylan Carlson .275 .352 .467 127 4.1 .222 .302 .367 89 1.3
Paul DeJong .235 .313 .453 111 3.6 .186 .264 .351 72 1.3
Tyler O’Neill .279 .345 .518 137 3.7 .224 .295 .408 96 1.2
Alec Burleson .297 .343 .484 128 3.7 .243 .286 .377 85 0.9
Lars Nootbaar .255 .356 .508 134 3.3 .204 .302 .377 90 0.9
Nolan Gorman .261 .328 .529 133 3.8 .204 .271 .392 84 0.5
Brendan Donovan .277 .378 .387 115 3.3 .223 .323 .312 79 0.9
Kramer Robertson .235 .347 .355 97 3.0 .184 .292 .270 61 0.8
Juan Yepez .292 .341 .535 140 3.1 .234 .287 .414 94 0.3
Yadier Molina .279 .314 .393 96 2.3 .215 .254 .304 57 0.5
Oscar Mercado .266 .328 .428 109 2.4 .215 .275 .331 71 0.3
Jordan Walker .265 .327 .426 109 2.6 .213 .274 .330 71 0.0
Taylor Motter .238 .324 .450 114 1.7 .189 .275 .348 75 0.0
Chase Pinder .229 .330 .356 92 1.5 .173 .267 .270 54 0.0
Jose Fermin .261 .338 .356 94 1.3 .211 .289 .283 61 -0.3
Andrew Knizner .265 .341 .386 102 1.4 .198 .279 .286 61 -0.1
Iván Herrera .250 .332 .399 103 1.6 .197 .276 .294 62 -0.4
Scott Hurst .243 .320 .355 87 1.3 .188 .264 .270 50 -0.4
Aaron Antonini .216 .308 .325 76 1.1 .161 .251 .231 38 -0.1
Juniel Querecuto .275 .319 .434 94 1.3 .223 .267 .335 58 -0.6
Mike Antico .234 .299 .373 87 1.4 .185 .249 .292 54 -0.9
Pedro Pages .229 .297 .342 78 1.1 .175 .243 .256 42 -0.5
Noah Mendlinger .261 .352 .332 94 1.0 .200 .293 .252 57 -0.4
Irving Lopez .247 .313 .351 86 1.1 .195 .262 .268 50 -0.4
Masyn Winn .246 .303 .386 91 1.4 .202 .255 .301 58 -1.0
Nick Dunn .262 .327 .355 92 1.2 .200 .268 .271 54 -1.0
Justin Toerner .225 .323 .336 84 0.9 .169 .269 .253 48 -0.8
Matt Koperniak .265 .326 .380 97 1.0 .208 .272 .294 59 -1.1
Nick Raposo .246 .304 .371 86 0.5 .186 .247 .280 49 -0.5
Moisés Gómez .221 .287 .418 92 1.3 .168 .233 .306 51 -1.2
Jacob Buchberger .243 .298 .346 80 0.8 .195 .249 .270 47 -1.0
Chandler Redmond .230 .297 .399 92 0.6 .175 .244 .305 53 -1.4
Tyler Reichenborn .239 .307 .351 83 0.5 .187 .253 .273 49 -1.4
Cory Spangenberg .241 .285 .373 82 0.3 .181 .229 .274 42 -1.7
Francisco Hernandez .210 .280 .309 64 0.0 .162 .228 .233 30 -1.6
Luken Baker .240 .290 .401 90 0.2 .186 .238 .315 55 -2.0
Mack Chambers .245 .298 .349 81 -0.3 .183 .239 .256 39 -1.8
L.J. Jones .242 .287 .378 85 0.0 .191 .235 .292 48 -2.0
Roberto Baldoquin .232 .302 .272 63 -0.6 .180 .248 .208 31 -1.6
Jonah Davis .174 .272 .339 68 -0.6 .115 .217 .222 28 -2.0
Aaron McKeithan .242 .316 .336 82 -0.5 .182 .257 .250 45 -1.9
Todd Lott .232 .282 .368 79 -0.4 .182 .231 .285 45 -2.3

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Giovanny Gallegos R 31 6 3 3.14 60 0 63.0 47 22 8 17 75
Ryan Helsley R 28 6 3 3.17 50 1 59.7 44 21 7 23 75
Jordan Montgomery L 30 8 5 3.38 29 29 157.3 147 59 17 37 137
Jack Flaherty R 27 6 5 3.47 21 20 103.7 85 40 14 35 106
Chris Stratton R 32 6 4 3.50 51 1 61.7 58 24 6 22 58
Ryan Loutos R 24 5 3 3.57 41 2 58.0 55 23 6 19 50
Jordan Hicks R 26 5 3 3.58 35 8 60.3 45 24 5 34 67
Andre Pallante R 24 6 4 3.68 38 13 100.3 99 41 10 38 75
Steven Matz L 32 7 6 3.71 22 19 97.0 93 40 13 28 94
Miles Mikolas R 34 11 9 3.75 27 26 156.0 153 65 21 32 116
Jacob Bosiokovic R 29 4 3 3.76 29 0 40.7 35 17 4 18 42
Kodi Whitley R 28 2 2 3.78 44 0 50.0 46 21 6 21 46
Matthew Liberatore L 23 10 9 3.83 28 26 141.0 131 60 15 47 121
Zack Thompson L 25 4 4 3.92 33 13 85.0 75 37 9 36 76
Jake Walsh R 27 1 2 3.93 16 0 18.3 15 8 3 8 20
Connor Thomas L 25 9 7 3.93 25 22 128.3 128 56 13 35 87
Jake Woodford R 26 6 5 3.95 33 15 98.0 95 43 10 37 69
Adam Wainwright R 41 10 9 3.96 26 26 154.7 156 68 21 47 117
Dakota Hudson R 28 9 7 3.98 27 26 144.7 142 64 15 60 93
Génesis Cabrera L 26 5 4 3.99 47 4 70.0 63 31 8 28 63
Zach McAllister R 35 2 3 4.38 42 0 51.3 47 25 6 22 55
Packy Naughton L 27 5 5 4.01 28 13 85.3 87 38 11 22 68
Wilking Rodriguez R 33 2 1 4.03 15 1 22.3 20 10 2 11 20
Blake Parker R 38 2 1 4.04 37 0 35.7 32 16 5 16 35
JoJo Romero L 26 5 4 4.04 30 12 71.3 68 32 10 30 68
Andre Granillo R 23 5 5 4.04 37 0 49.0 43 22 6 28 51
Connor Lunn R 24 6 6 4.05 22 19 93.3 94 42 12 23 68
Alex Reyes R 28 5 5 4.06 38 2 44.3 34 20 5 31 51
Freddy Pacheco R 25 4 3 4.13 45 0 52.3 43 24 7 30 61
Gianluca Dalatri R 25 2 2 4.14 30 0 41.3 38 19 6 19 40
Tommy Parsons R 27 7 6 4.15 32 14 108.3 106 50 15 41 82
Michael McGreevy R 22 7 7 4.21 27 27 136.7 140 64 18 44 85
Brandon Waddell L 29 3 4 4.24 25 5 51.0 50 24 7 24 47
James Naile R 30 4 4 4.28 40 7 82.0 86 39 10 26 55
Gordon Graceffo R 23 8 7 4.29 25 25 126.0 119 60 17 38 87
Dalton Roach R 27 6 7 4.29 30 13 92.3 94 44 14 28 72
Kyle Ryan L 31 3 2 4.30 39 0 44.0 44 21 5 21 30
Zane Mills R 22 6 6 4.30 25 25 134.0 143 64 16 38 69
Kenny Hernandez L 25 5 6 4.32 28 11 89.7 94 43 12 32 58
Guillermo Zuniga R 24 4 4 4.44 40 1 50.7 47 25 8 25 50
Logan Gragg R 24 4 5 4.48 26 15 90.3 96 45 13 26 57
Drew VerHagen R 32 4 4 4.50 24 8 62.0 65 31 9 23 51
Edgar Escobar R 26 7 8 4.52 26 14 99.7 102 50 14 39 68
Johan Quezada R 28 2 1 4.53 36 1 49.7 48 25 7 29 45
Brandon Komar R 24 4 6 4.95 27 12 91.0 92 50 12 41 65
Grant Black R 28 4 4 4.59 40 5 64.7 67 33 9 30 46
John Beller L 24 3 4 4.60 24 10 58.7 57 30 9 31 52
Kyle Leahy R 26 6 8 4.67 24 20 117.7 125 61 17 51 83
Garrett Williams L 28 4 5 4.73 27 12 70.3 61 37 9 45 72
Jose Martinez R 24 4 4 5.26 26 7 65.0 74 38 11 28 39
Michael YaSenka R 25 2 3 5.05 23 7 62.3 63 35 10 34 49
Edgar Gonzalez곤잘레스 R 26 4 6 5.55 19 12 60.0 67 37 12 36 46
Griffin Roberts R 27 1 3 6.38 19 7 42.3 44 30 8 32 34

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Giovanny Gallegos 63.0 10.7 2.4 1.1 6.7% 29.8% .262 125 3.38 80 1.0
Ryan Helsley 59.7 11.3 3.5 1.1 9.3% 30.5% .270 124 3.32 80 1.0
Jordan Montgomery 157.3 7.8 2.1 1.0 5.7% 21.0% .286 117 3.60 86 3.0
Jack Flaherty 103.7 9.2 3.0 1.2 8.2% 24.8% .264 113 4.02 88 1.9
Chris Stratton 61.7 8.5 3.2 0.9 8.4% 22.1% .297 112 3.66 89 0.6
Ryan Loutos 58.0 7.8 2.9 0.9 7.6% 20.1% .290 110 3.91 91 0.6
Jordan Hicks 60.3 10.0 5.1 0.7 13.0% 25.6% .267 110 3.90 91 1.0
Andre Pallante 100.3 6.7 3.4 0.9 8.7% 17.2% .290 107 4.18 93 1.5
Steven Matz 97.0 8.7 2.6 1.2 6.9% 23.1% .296 106 3.95 94 1.5
Miles Mikolas 156.0 6.7 1.8 1.2 5.0% 18.0% .280 105 4.17 95 2.3
Jacob Bosiokovic 40.7 9.3 4.0 0.9 10.2% 23.7% .287 105 3.92 96 0.2
Kodi Whitley 50.0 8.3 3.8 1.1 9.8% 21.4% .286 104 4.19 96 0.2
Matthew Liberatore 141.0 7.7 3.0 1.0 7.9% 20.3% .284 103 3.99 97 1.9
Zack Thompson 85.0 8.0 3.8 1.0 9.9% 20.8% .276 101 4.19 99 0.9
Jake Walsh 18.3 9.8 3.9 1.5 10.3% 25.6% .261 100 4.57 100 0.1
Connor Thomas 128.3 6.1 2.5 0.9 6.5% 16.1% .285 100 4.12 100 1.7
Jake Woodford 98.0 6.3 3.4 0.9 8.8% 16.4% .281 100 4.36 100 1.0
Adam Wainwright 154.7 6.8 2.7 1.2 7.1% 17.8% .287 100 4.45 100 1.9
Dakota Hudson 144.7 5.8 3.7 0.9 9.5% 14.8% .279 99 4.63 101 1.7
Génesis Cabrera 70.0 8.1 3.6 1.0 9.3% 20.9% .279 99 4.25 101 0.5
Zach McAllister 51.3 9.6 3.9 1.1 10.0% 24.9% .299 94 4.22 106 0.1
Packy Naughton 85.3 7.2 2.3 1.2 6.1% 18.8% .295 98 4.08 102 1.0
Wilking Rodriguez 22.3 8.1 4.4 0.8 11.3% 20.6% .286 98 4.14 102 0.1
Blake Parker 35.7 8.8 4.0 1.3 10.3% 22.6% .278 98 4.53 103 0.0
JoJo Romero 71.3 8.6 3.8 1.3 9.7% 22.0% .291 98 4.46 103 0.8
Andre Granillo 49.0 9.4 5.1 1.1 12.7% 23.2% .285 97 4.38 103 0.0
Connor Lunn 93.3 6.6 2.2 1.2 5.9% 17.3% .286 97 4.27 103 1.1
Alex Reyes 44.3 10.4 6.3 1.0 15.4% 25.4% .269 97 4.48 103 0.2
Freddy Pacheco 52.3 10.5 5.2 1.2 12.9% 26.3% .279 95 4.40 105 0.0
Gianluca Dalatri 41.3 8.7 4.1 1.3 10.6% 22.3% .283 95 4.77 105 0.0
Tommy Parsons 108.3 6.8 3.4 1.2 8.8% 17.6% .279 95 4.60 105 1.0
Michael McGreevy 136.7 5.6 2.9 1.2 7.5% 14.5% .280 93 4.61 107 1.3
Brandon Waddell 51.0 8.3 4.2 1.2 10.6% 20.8% .297 93 4.57 108 0.3
James Naile 82.0 6.0 2.9 1.1 7.3% 15.4% .291 92 4.53 109 0.4
Gordon Graceffo 126.0 6.2 2.7 1.2 7.1% 16.3% .266 92 4.55 109 1.1
Dalton Roach 92.3 7.0 2.7 1.4 7.1% 18.3% .288 92 4.60 109 0.7
Kyle Ryan 44.0 6.1 4.3 1.0 10.7% 15.3% .283 92 4.84 109 -0.1
Zane Mills 134.0 4.6 2.6 1.1 6.6% 12.0% .283 92 4.68 109 1.1
Kenny Hernandez 89.7 5.8 3.2 1.2 8.2% 14.8% .287 91 4.77 110 0.6
Guillermo Zuniga 50.7 8.9 4.4 1.4 11.0% 22.0% .283 89 4.83 113 -0.2
Logan Gragg 90.3 5.7 2.6 1.3 6.7% 14.8% .286 88 4.79 114 0.5
Drew VerHagen 62.0 7.4 3.3 1.3 8.5% 18.9% .301 88 4.70 114 0.3
Edgar Escobar 99.7 6.1 3.5 1.3 9.0% 15.6% .283 87 4.97 115 0.5
Johan Quezada 49.7 8.2 5.3 1.3 12.6% 19.6% .291 87 5.05 115 -0.2
Brandon Komar 91.0 6.4 4.1 1.2 10.2% 16.1% .285 77 4.89 130 -0.3
Grant Black 64.7 6.4 4.2 1.3 10.3% 15.9% .289 86 5.07 117 0.0
John Beller 58.7 8.0 4.8 1.4 11.7% 19.5% .286 86 5.06 117 0.2
Kyle Leahy 117.7 6.3 3.9 1.3 9.7% 15.8% .293 84 5.02 118 0.5
Garrett Williams 70.3 9.2 5.8 1.2 14.2% 22.6% .280 83 5.12 120 0.2
Jose Martinez 65.0 5.4 3.9 1.5 9.5% 13.2% .294 79 5.72 127 -0.1
Michael YaSenka 62.3 7.1 4.9 1.4 12.0% 17.3% .285 78 5.50 128 -0.2
Edgar Gonzalez 60.0 6.9 5.4 1.8 12.6% 16.1% .299 71 6.17 141 -0.5
Griffin Roberts 42.3 7.2 6.8 1.7 15.6% 16.6% .286 62 7.12 162 -0.9

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Giovanny Gallegos Jeff Montgomery Mel Rojas Gene Garber 1.7 0.0 2.33 4.87
Ryan Helsley Ricky Bottalico Frank Francisco Daniel Bard 1.7 0.2 2.38 4.39
Jordan Montgomery Jim Kaat Jose Quintana Vida Blue 4.1 2.0 2.87 3.93
Jack Flaherty Elmer Riddle Buzz Capra Sam Gray 2.7 1.2 2.87 4.06
Chris Stratton Hansel Izquierdo Chris Nichting Roberto Giron 1.1 0.0 2.98 4.21
Ryan Loutos Ramon Troncoso Dan Burns Rick Baldwin 1.0 0.2 3.04 4.08
Jordan Hicks Bryce Florie Doug Bochtler Jack Banta 1.6 0.2 2.99 4.61
Andre Pallante Bill Abernathie Jeff Samardzija Roy Thomas 2.0 0.8 3.32 4.09
Steven Matz Johnny Podres Chris Short Gary Peters 2.2 0.6 3.16 4.46
Miles Mikolas Jeremy Guthrie Iván Nova 노바 Jeff Samardzija 3.3 1.4 3.34 4.25
Jacob Bosiokovic Rocky Cherry Floyd Weaver Jose Paniagua 0.6 -0.2 3.14 4.67
Kodi Whitley Jim Austin Daryl Patterson Rocky Cherry 0.6 -0.3 3.23 4.58
Matthew Liberatore Jim Abbott Kolby Allard Edwin Escobar 2.8 0.9 3.41 4.42
Zack Thompson Tony Ferreira Jeff Musselman Pedro Martinez 1.6 0.2 3.35 4.44
Jake Walsh Ray Harrell Johnny Humphries Dick Drott 0.2 -0.1 3.22 4.68
Connor Thomas Jeff Ballard Tom Burgmeier John Rheinecker 2.4 0.9 3.52 4.45
Jake Woodford Chuck Fore Zach Miner Jim Hannan 1.5 0.4 3.51 4.43
Adam Wainwright Derek Lowe R.A. Dickey Steve Sparks 2.7 0.9 3.44 4.60
Dakota Hudson Mike Torrez Jamey Wright Chi Chi Gonzalez 2.5 0.8 3.60 4.47
Génesis Cabrera Kenny Rogers Arnie Munoz Sam Freeman 1.0 -0.1 3.42 4.61
Zach McAllister Dick Tidrow Tony Pena Josh Kinney 0.6 -0.4 3.57 5.44
Packy Naughton Derek Lilliquist Kerry Knox Matt Tomshaw 1.5 0.2 3.55 4.65
Wilking Rodriguez Cecil Upshaw Lou Koupal Dooley Womack 0.3 -0.1 3.42 4.87
Blake Parker Tom Gordon Turk Lown Earl Caldwell 0.4 -0.4 3.21 5.12
JoJo Romero Larry Thomas Sean Lawrence Shawn Barton 1.3 0.1 3.46 4.81
Andre Granillo Al McBean Dan Boitano Emiliano Rivera 0.5 -0.5 3.45 4.80
Connor Lunn Bob Hallas Ed Lynch Gil Heredia 1.6 0.4 3.61 4.68
Alex Reyes Doug Bochtler Charlie Hough Michael Kohn 0.7 -0.4 3.45 5.16
Freddy Pacheco Frank Francisco Chad Sobotka Mike Konderla 0.5 -0.6 3.44 5.06
Gianluca Dalatri Vernon Temple Lamar Jones Darren Balsley 0.3 -0.3 3.58 4.76
Tommy Parsons Paul Robinson Braden Shipley Bob Harris 1.7 0.3 3.72 4.64
Michael McGreevy Zeke Spruill 지크 Rich Hunter Peter Lambert 2.0 0.5 3.81 4.68
Brandon Waddell Eric Berger Chester Vincent Lucas Luetge 0.7 -0.2 3.67 4.99
James Naile Felipe Lira Garland Shifflett David Martinez 0.9 -0.2 3.85 4.83
Gordon Graceffo John Wasdin Jaime Barria Ricky Bones 1.9 0.4 3.83 4.74
Dalton Roach Chuck Stanhope Greg Beck Don Wengert 1.3 0.0 3.76 4.86
Kyle Ryan Roberto Rivera Pedro Martinez Mike Gallo 0.2 -0.5 3.76 5.04
Zane Mills Ariel Jurado Edwin Corps Andrew Walker 1.7 0.4 3.94 4.74
Kenny Hernandez Oscar Alvarez Raymond Cordeiro Matt Crouse 1.1 0.0 3.92 4.91
Guillermo Zuniga Matt Skrmetta Tracy Thorpe Grant Gavin 0.3 -0.6 3.83 5.06
Logan Gragg Jason Jones Brian Wolfe Jesse Hernandez 1.1 -0.1 4.04 5.05
Drew VerHagen Dick Strahs Mike Johnson Lawrence Manier 0.8 -0.1 3.89 5.05
Edgar Escobar Chris Jensen John Webb Luis Munoz 1.1 -0.2 4.07 5.02
Johan Quezada Steve Cline Lee Marcheskie Aaron Pullin 0.2 -0.7 3.96 5.40
Brandon Komar George Gerberman Dakota Bacus Gary Groce 0.3 -1.0 4.53 5.55
Grant Black Theodore Ellis Tommy Shimp Marshall Long 0.4 -0.6 4.12 5.33
John Beller Todd Hall Sid Akins Chris Siegfried 0.7 -0.3 4.00 5.22
Kyle Leahy Scott Blewett Phillips Valdez Jake Esch 1.1 -0.3 4.29 5.19
Garrett Williams Brent Leach Andrew Miller Tim Birtsas 0.7 -0.6 4.12 5.58
Jose Martinez Rick Pierini Brady Dragmire Johnny Rodriguez 0.3 -0.5 4.80 5.85
Michael YaSenka Gregory McSparran Esteban Maldonado Matt Solter 0.3 -0.7 4.52 5.70
Edgar Gonzalez Matt Burch Stephen Harrold Bret Helton 0.0 -1.1 4.95 6.32
Griffin Roberts Mark Hampton Justin Jackson Luz Portobanco -0.5 -1.4 5.70 7.36

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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MorboTheAnnihilator
11 days ago

Definitely haven’t been refreshing all morning waiting for this to post