2023 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Angels.

Batters

I remember the first time I visited Anaheim. A jewel along the Mississippi River, with its vast cornfields, state fairs with fried butter, and an easy drive from cities like Detroit, Chicago, Cincinnati, or St. Louis. Hold on a jiffy, that doesn’t sound quite right. Anaheim is actually in southern California, not the midwest. My confusion, you see, stems from my opinion that the Angels, despite having two of the best players of this generation, are a Central division team. At least, they’re run like one.

The Angels aren’t afraid of a few big contracts, but when it’s time to fill out the roster, it’s all cost-cutting, “just good enough” thinking, and depth resembling a small puddle on a blazing hot day. Just good enough hasn’t, it’s turned out, actually been good enough, not by any stretch of the imagination. The Angels haven’t had a winning record since 2015. The Pirates have a win-loss record more recently in the black.

Now, there’s an additional complexity here in that the team is currently on the auction block, and while we don’t have any specifics yet, the commish is at least hopeful that a sale will be completed before Opening Day. While that may have a lot to do with the Angels’ lackluster winter, the fact is that this has been the team’s modus operandi for some time. In terms of adding talent to the roster, last year’s big free agent signing was Noah Syndergaard on a one-year, $21 million contract (the team also re-signed Raisel Iglesias). The year before, the Angels didn’t give out a single multi-year deal in free agency, and only a single free agent, José Quintana, netted upwards of $2 million. In the years between the Josh Hamilton and Anthony Rendon signings, the Angels didn’t give out a single free agent contract that hit $40 million. This organization has been broken for longer than it has been up for sale, and a new ownership group will be extremely welcome.

Looking at the offense, it isn’t bad, but as is the team’s pattern, it’s curiously unambitious. Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe are nice enough additions, but they’re complementary players who aren’t going to carry a lineup. Sure, this team will score a lot of runs if you’re really, really, really confident that Mike Trout and Rendon are going to do Cal Ripken Jr. imitations in terms of their endurance, but why would you think that? An injury or two and the wheels come off this apple trolley very quickly. Shohei Ohtani is a free agent after 2024 [2023! -DS]; in an offseason where Aaron Judge, four terrific shortstops, and Brandon Nimmo were all available, how is Tyler Anderson the big signing?

Yes, the Angels would prefer to not go over the luxury tax threshold; I would have preferred not to spend money on a new roof last month! Sometimes, you have to pay something you don’t want to in order to preserve something else. The Angels are like one of those early 2000s GM sports cars; there’s lots of cool stuff and then you see that they took the steering wheel and dashboard from a Geo Prizm. At least the teams tanking have figured out a cynical way to eventually compete rather than a moderately expensive way of failing.

My usual urging to resist simply adding up the WAR on the depth chart graphic goes double here; of the 16 teams so far, the Angels have the biggest disparity between what ZiPS is currently projecting and what adding up the depth chart playing time will get you. As noted, I’m far less optimistic about Trout and Rendon’s plate appearances than our current depth charts and when you combine that with simulations that occasionally require some pretty bleak fill-ins, you drop from a depth chart tally of about 93 wins to the 85 that ZiPS currently forecasts.

Pitchers

ZiPS likes quite a lot about the Angels’ pitching staff. Ohtani’s projected innings pitched creeps up every year, and Roger Clemens soldered to Earl Torgeson — the comps, not some horrifying experiment I’m conducting in my basement — is an amazing player. ZiPS also doesn’t think that Patrick Sandoval’s improvement is any kind of mirage. The computer now sees him as a quality number-two starter behind Ohtani, leaving the Angels in far better shape in the unfortunate event of an Ohtani injury than they were a few years ago. The rest of the rotation projects as solid though not overwhelming, and even if ZiPS doesn’t see high upside in Anderson, Reid Detmers, or José Suarez, it sees them as fairly safe options. The depth behind them looks solid, with Chase Silseth projected as a viable starter right now.

These projections remain more optimistic than Steamer when we look at the bullpen. Where Steamer sees Carlos Estévez and José Quijada as sneaking above replacement and the rest of the bullpen hovering around the zero mark, ZiPS sees general adequacy, even if the team sorely misses Iglesias at the top of the ‘pen.

Despite the negative tone at the top, I do think the Angels are likely to considerably improve on their 2022 record and have a great shot to get above .500 for the first time in quite a while. My complaint isn’t so much with what the Angels are, but what they could have been. Worrying about “couldas” might kill you, but it really stings that despite having arguably the best two players the franchise will ever have, they still can’t put together a winning team. The Angels could sneak into the postseason at 87 wins or something, but it still won’t replace all the lost opportunities.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.