2023 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Los Angeles Angels.

Batters

I remember the first time I visited Anaheim. A jewel along the Mississippi River, with its vast cornfields, state fairs with fried butter, and an easy drive from cities like Detroit, Chicago, Cincinnati, or St. Louis. Hold on a jiffy, that doesn’t sound quite right. Anaheim is actually in southern California, not the midwest. My confusion, you see, stems from my opinion that the Angels, despite having two of the best players of this generation, are a Central division team. At least, they’re run like one.

The Angels aren’t afraid of a few big contracts, but when it’s time to fill out the roster, it’s all cost-cutting, “just good enough” thinking, and depth resembling a small puddle on a blazing hot day. Just good enough hasn’t, it’s turned out, actually been good enough, not by any stretch of the imagination. The Angels haven’t had a winning record since 2015. The Pirates have a win-loss record more recently in the black.

Now, there’s an additional complexity here in that the team is currently on the auction block, and while we don’t have any specifics yet, the commish is at least hopeful that a sale will be completed before Opening Day. While that may have a lot to do with the Angels’ lackluster winter, the fact is that this has been the team’s modus operandi for some time. In terms of adding talent to the roster, last year’s big free agent signing was Noah Syndergaard on a one-year, $21 million contract (the team also re-signed Raisel Iglesias). The year before, the Angels didn’t give out a single multi-year deal in free agency, and only a single free agent, José Quintana, netted upwards of $2 million. In the years between the Josh Hamilton and Anthony Rendon signings, the Angels didn’t give out a single free agent contract that hit $40 million. This organization has been broken for longer than it has been up for sale, and a new ownership group will be extremely welcome.

Looking at the offense, it isn’t bad, but as is the team’s pattern, it’s curiously unambitious. Brandon Drury and Hunter Renfroe are nice enough additions, but they’re complementary players who aren’t going to carry a lineup. Sure, this team will score a lot of runs if you’re really, really, really confident that Mike Trout and Rendon are going to do Cal Ripken Jr. imitations in terms of their endurance, but why would you think that? An injury or two and the wheels come off this apple trolley very quickly. Shohei Ohtani is a free agent after 2024 [2023! -DS]; in an offseason where Aaron Judge, four terrific shortstops, and Brandon Nimmo were all available, how is Tyler Anderson the big signing?

Yes, the Angels would prefer to not go over the luxury tax threshold; I would have preferred not to spend money on a new roof last month! Sometimes, you have to pay something you don’t want to in order to preserve something else. The Angels are like one of those early 2000s GM sports cars; there’s lots of cool stuff and then you see that they took the steering wheel and dashboard from a Geo Prizm. At least the teams tanking have figured out a cynical way to eventually compete rather than a moderately expensive way of failing.

My usual urging to resist simply adding up the WAR on the depth chart graphic goes double here; of the 16 teams so far, the Angels have the biggest disparity between what ZiPS is currently projecting and what adding up the depth chart playing time will get you. As noted, I’m far less optimistic about Trout and Rendon’s plate appearances than our current depth charts and when you combine that with simulations that occasionally require some pretty bleak fill-ins, you drop from a depth chart tally of about 93 wins to the 85 that ZiPS currently forecasts.

Pitchers

ZiPS likes quite a lot about the Angels’ pitching staff. Ohtani’s projected innings pitched creeps up every year, and Roger Clemens soldered to Earl Torgeson — the comps, not some horrifying experiment I’m conducting in my basement — is an amazing player. ZiPS also doesn’t think that Patrick Sandoval’s improvement is any kind of mirage. The computer now sees him as a quality number-two starter behind Ohtani, leaving the Angels in far better shape in the unfortunate event of an Ohtani injury than they were a few years ago. The rest of the rotation projects as solid though not overwhelming, and even if ZiPS doesn’t see high upside in Anderson, Reid Detmers, or José Suarez, it sees them as fairly safe options. The depth behind them looks solid, with Chase Silseth projected as a viable starter right now.

These projections remain more optimistic than Steamer when we look at the bullpen. Where Steamer sees Carlos Estévez and José Quijada as sneaking above replacement and the rest of the bullpen hovering around the zero mark, ZiPS sees general adequacy, even if the team sorely misses Iglesias at the top of the ‘pen.

Despite the negative tone at the top, I do think the Angels are likely to considerably improve on their 2022 record and have a great shot to get above .500 for the first time in quite a while. My complaint isn’t so much with what the Angels are, but what they could have been. Worrying about “couldas” might kill you, but it really stings that despite having arguably the best two players the franchise will ever have, they still can’t put together a winning team. The Angels could sneak into the postseason at 87 wins or something, but it still won’t replace all the lost opportunities.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Mike Trout R 31 CF 464 389 77 106 22 2 32 69 64 123 3 0
Shohei Ohtani L 28 DH 623 542 88 141 26 6 36 88 74 158 15 7
Anthony Rendon R 33 3B 356 304 44 82 20 1 11 50 44 58 2 1
Hunter Renfroe R 31 RF 515 465 69 116 24 1 29 73 41 127 2 1
Taylor Ward R 29 RF 513 447 72 116 26 1 19 63 57 116 5 2
Gio Urshela R 31 3B 502 463 59 131 27 2 15 62 31 96 1 1
Luis Rengifo B 26 2B 556 513 62 131 22 4 15 56 34 101 7 4
Michael Stefanic R 27 2B 476 424 52 111 17 1 7 54 40 59 3 3
Kevin Padlo R 26 3B 414 371 52 85 19 2 15 54 36 124 7 2
Logan O’Hoppe R 23 C 461 407 51 99 15 1 16 64 43 96 3 2
Max Stassi R 32 C 324 287 33 61 10 1 10 28 31 101 0 1
Brandon Drury R 30 3B 479 441 58 107 24 1 18 58 31 112 1 2
David Fletcher R 29 2B 510 478 55 129 22 2 3 36 27 47 6 2
Jared Walsh L 29 1B 496 451 55 111 25 2 21 65 37 141 1 1
Edgar Quero B 20 C 491 425 57 98 26 1 14 71 47 122 4 3
Luis Barrera L 27 CF 409 374 43 89 15 6 6 39 29 92 8 3
Kean Wong L 28 3B 484 443 51 108 17 3 4 43 35 121 16 4
Jeremiah Jackson R 23 2B 328 297 37 68 17 2 11 39 25 91 4 2
Riley Unroe B 27 SS 412 371 46 89 15 4 7 42 35 100 10 4
Dillon Thomas L 30 RF 454 401 57 92 18 2 12 66 36 153 6 3
Orlando Martinez L 25 RF 445 413 48 96 20 3 10 45 28 120 4 4
Matt Thaiss L 28 C 431 378 50 85 16 2 12 47 48 103 3 1
Andrew Velazquez B 28 SS 366 333 45 71 16 2 8 35 25 117 18 3
Straton Podaras R 25 C 201 170 23 34 10 0 6 30 23 63 2 1
Livan Soto L 23 SS 554 499 57 115 17 4 6 47 45 131 8 5
Kyren Paris R 21 SS 440 386 58 79 15 5 10 51 42 153 16 3
Jack Mayfield R 32 SS 359 333 44 77 17 2 10 42 18 82 5 2
Matt Duffy R 32 3B 311 281 28 72 11 0 4 25 24 63 2 1
Jo Adell R 24 LF 484 446 59 103 24 2 20 64 30 166 6 3
Steven Duggar L 29 CF 326 295 40 62 12 2 7 32 28 115 10 2
BJ Boyd L 29 LF 333 307 42 78 14 2 7 39 20 66 5 1
Christian Sepulveda R 25 3B 283 262 35 56 17 2 7 38 11 90 4 2
Magneuris Sierra L 27 CF 418 390 50 93 12 5 4 32 23 87 20 5
Zach Neto R 22 SS 173 157 20 37 7 1 4 25 9 40 3 2
Jake Lamb L 32 1B 333 288 39 61 12 1 12 37 38 106 0 1
Mike Ford L 30 1B 368 322 39 72 15 0 12 41 41 86 0 1
José Godoy L 28 C 292 269 31 62 11 0 6 32 18 73 0 1
Colby Fitch L 27 C 112 95 10 16 4 1 2 14 12 46 1 1
Jared Oliva R 27 CF 409 378 50 88 19 4 6 46 24 109 15 4
Zach Humphreys R 25 C 271 234 31 50 8 1 4 24 34 70 4 2
Monte Harrison R 27 CF 347 312 45 62 10 1 10 40 29 144 19 3
Jake Palomaki B 27 SS 359 318 38 72 10 2 1 30 31 70 7 4
Mickey Moniak L 25 CF 425 395 46 88 17 6 14 48 23 130 6 2
Kurt Suzuki R 39 C 204 179 17 43 8 0 5 20 15 36 0 1
Michael Cruz L 27 C 196 175 19 37 7 0 5 28 13 59 0 1
Chad Wallach R 31 C 341 302 30 60 12 1 8 35 30 110 1 1
Jose Gomez R 26 3B 407 380 38 84 16 1 4 37 20 119 4 4
Braxton Martinez R 29 1B 362 316 35 65 17 1 8 38 39 105 0 1
Aaron Whitefield R 26 LF 404 370 45 79 14 3 6 37 27 133 17 7
Juan Lagares R 34 RF 271 254 31 57 14 2 4 24 14 66 1 2
Gabe Matthews L 25 1B 422 366 40 72 17 0 11 54 41 150 1 1
Carlos Reina B 24 C 133 119 11 20 6 0 1 10 10 49 1 1
Ryan Aguilar L 28 RF 390 338 48 65 11 1 9 43 44 148 5 2
Bryce Teodosio R 24 CF 399 360 36 63 11 0 10 41 30 179 12 4
Sonny DiChiara R 23 1B 156 132 6 21 2 0 1 14 19 67 1 1
Anthony Mulrine R 25 C 235 207 19 38 7 0 2 26 16 71 0 1
Kyle Kasser L 27 2B 356 324 30 77 11 1 1 27 27 57 6 2
Jake Gatewood R 27 1B 443 415 48 80 15 2 18 53 21 181 2 2
Torii Hunter Jr. R 28 LF 330 302 32 63 9 3 5 32 21 119 12 3
David Calabrese L 20 CF 455 416 48 83 18 4 5 36 32 149 11 1
Kevin Maitan B 23 3B 429 396 38 79 13 1 8 42 26 154 2 2
Jordyn Adams R 23 CF 464 426 51 86 13 3 5 40 30 154 15 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Mike Trout 464 .272 .384 .586 164 .314 .316 -1 4.8 .402
Shohei Ohtani 623 .260 .352 .530 140 .269 .302 0 3.5 .367
Anthony Rendon 356 .270 .368 .451 126 .181 .302 0 2.2 .354
Hunter Renfroe 515 .249 .311 .492 118 .243 .282 3 2.2 .340
Taylor Ward 513 .260 .350 .450 120 .190 .311 -2 2.1 .347
Gio Urshela 502 .283 .329 .447 113 .164 .330 -2 2.1 .333
Luis Rengifo 556 .255 .307 .402 95 .146 .292 2 1.7 .307
Michael Stefanic 476 .262 .338 .356 94 .094 .291 3 1.6 .309
Kevin Padlo 414 .229 .302 .412 96 .183 .302 4 1.6 .308
Logan O’Hoppe 461 .243 .325 .403 101 .160 .281 -6 1.5 .318
Max Stassi 324 .213 .296 .359 81 .146 .290 7 1.4 .289
Brandon Drury 479 .243 .296 .424 97 .181 .286 -1 1.2 .310
David Fletcher 510 .270 .310 .343 82 .073 .294 6 1.1 .287
Jared Walsh 496 .246 .308 .450 107 .204 .311 1 1.0 .322
Edgar Quero 491 .231 .326 .395 99 .165 .291 -12 1.0 .317
Luis Barrera 409 .238 .294 .358 80 .120 .301 6 1.0 .285
Kean Wong 484 .244 .303 .323 74 .079 .327 7 1.0 .278
Jeremiah Jackson 328 .229 .293 .411 93 .182 .292 2 0.9 .302
Riley Unroe 412 .240 .309 .358 85 .119 .311 -2 0.8 .294
Dillon Thomas 454 .229 .315 .374 91 .145 .339 4 0.7 .305
Orlando Martinez 445 .232 .281 .368 79 .136 .304 11 0.5 .281
Matt Thaiss 431 .225 .316 .373 91 .148 .278 -9 0.5 .302
Andrew Velazquez 366 .213 .271 .345 70 .132 .303 1 0.5 .270
Straton Podaras 201 .200 .323 .365 91 .165 .277 -4 0.4 .309
Livan Soto 554 .230 .296 .317 71 .086 .301 1 0.4 .273
Kyren Paris 440 .205 .296 .347 78 .142 .309 -5 0.4 .286
Jack Mayfield 359 .231 .277 .384 81 .153 .278 -2 0.3 .285
Matt Duffy 311 .256 .325 .338 85 .082 .318 -2 0.3 .296
Jo Adell 484 .231 .287 .428 95 .197 .319 -2 0.3 .307
Steven Duggar 326 .210 .282 .336 71 .125 .318 2 0.3 .272
BJ Boyd 333 .254 .306 .381 90 .127 .303 0 0.2 .300
Christian Sepulveda 283 .214 .269 .374 76 .160 .297 2 0.2 .279
Magneuris Sierra 418 .238 .284 .326 69 .087 .298 3 0.2 .267
Zach Neto 173 .236 .301 .369 85 .134 .292 -2 0.1 .294
Jake Lamb 333 .212 .312 .385 93 .174 .288 0 0.1 .307
Mike Ford 368 .224 .318 .382 94 .158 .268 -1 0.1 .307
José Godoy 292 .230 .284 .338 72 .108 .295 -1 0.1 .273
Colby Fitch 112 .168 .286 .295 62 .126 .298 0 0.0 .265
Jared Oliva 409 .233 .289 .352 77 .119 .312 -3 0.0 .280
Zach Humphreys 271 .214 .314 .308 74 .094 .288 -5 -0.1 .282
Monte Harrison 347 .199 .274 .333 68 .135 .329 -2 -0.1 .269
Jake Palomaki 359 .226 .303 .280 64 .053 .287 0 -0.1 .266
Mickey Moniak 425 .223 .269 .403 83 .180 .295 -5 -0.1 .286
Kurt Suzuki 204 .240 .315 .369 90 .128 .275 -8 -0.2 .301
Michael Cruz 196 .211 .291 .337 74 .126 .288 -4 -0.2 .278
Chad Wallach 341 .199 .279 .325 67 .126 .283 -4 -0.2 .269
Jose Gomez 407 .221 .268 .300 58 .079 .311 6 -0.2 .252
Braxton Martinez 362 .206 .298 .342 78 .136 .281 2 -0.3 .284
Aaron Whitefield 404 .214 .270 .316 62 .103 .316 8 -0.3 .257
Juan Lagares 271 .224 .267 .343 68 .118 .288 3 -0.4 .264
Gabe Matthews 422 .197 .296 .333 75 .137 .298 1 -0.6 .281
Carlos Reina 133 .168 .242 .244 36 .076 .275 -1 -0.6 .222
Ryan Aguilar 390 .192 .296 .311 69 .118 .309 0 -0.6 .275
Bryce Teodosio 399 .175 .251 .289 50 .114 .310 4 -0.6 .243
Sonny DiChiara 156 .159 .288 .197 39 .038 .313 0 -0.8 .238
Anthony Mulrine 235 .184 .274 .246 47 .063 .269 -5 -0.9 .242
Kyle Kasser 356 .238 .297 .287 64 .049 .286 -7 -1.0 .262
Jake Gatewood 443 .193 .238 .369 65 .176 .287 4 -1.1 .261
Torii Hunter Jr. 330 .209 .268 .308 60 .099 .326 -2 -1.1 .256
David Calabrese 455 .200 .257 .298 54 .099 .298 -3 -1.2 .245
Kevin Maitan 429 .199 .256 .298 54 .098 .303 -3 -1.4 .246
Jordyn Adams 464 .202 .261 .282 51 .080 .303 -6 -1.6 .243

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Mike Trout Mickey Mantle Pedro Guerrero Jeff Heath
Shohei Ohtani Earl Torgeson Kirk Gibson Darryl Strawberry
Anthony Rendon Bill Mueller Rance Mulliniks Jim Ray Hart
Hunter Renfroe Frank Kellert Carlos González Mickey Rocco
Taylor Ward Ed Morgan Ray Sanders Ira Flagstead
Gio Urshela Steve Demeter Hank Majeski Scooter Gennett
Luis Rengifo Mike Richardt Red Schoendienst Adam Kennedy
Michael Stefanic Marty Barrett Bryan Little Matt Galante
Kevin Padlo Ed Moxey Jim Pankovits Jim Riggleman
Logan O’Hoppe Mike Sweeney Charlie O’Brien John Jaso
Max Stassi Rick Wilkins Chris Cannizzaro Steve Patchin
Brandon Drury Razor Shines Russell Kerns Steve Demeter
David Fletcher Luis Figueroa Duane Kuiper Glenn Beckert
Jared Walsh Tom Johnson Pidge Browne Bob Chance
Edgar Quero Bill Freehan Milton Swift Carlos Santana
Luis Barrera Ben Copeland Marvell Wynne McKay Christensen
Kean Wong Andrew Romine Stanley Roseboro Hernan Iribarren
Jeremiah Jackson Bill Madlock Alex Blandino Tony Graffanino
Riley Unroe Jimmy Stewart Shawn O’Malley U.L. Washington
Dillon Thomas Cesar Geronimo Bryan Petersen Ed Mierkowicz
Orlando Martinez Jake Shaffer Brant Brown Rick Down
Matt Thaiss Rick Stelmaszek Joe Nolan Glenn Borgmann
Andrew Velazquez Jimmy Sexton Lino Connell Chris Basak
Straton Podaras Darren Daulton Brian Deak Vinny DiFazio
Livan Soto Mark Raynor Denny Hocking Ricky Gutierrez
Kyren Paris John Miller Sean Rodriguez Amaury Garcia 가르시아
Jack Mayfield Doc Lavan Jack Lohrke Clint Barmes
Matt Duffy Ivan de Jesus Jamie Burke Jim Snyder
Jo Adell Braulio Castillo Billy Beane Jordan Patterson
Steven Duggar Chris Powell Darnell Sweeney Sebastien Boucher
BJ Boyd David Lough Bob Addis Walt French
Christian Sepulveda Stan Papi Terry McDermott Dell Lindsey
Magneuris Sierra Wayne Kirby Leon Landry Jesus Tavarez 타바레스
Zach Neto Aaron Ledesma Jack Wilson Toy McCord
Jake Lamb Ty Van Burkleo Pat Dodson Mark Johnson
Mike Ford Rube Walker Larry Sutton 서튼 Rico Washington
José Godoy Bryan Holaday Bryan Kennedy Francisco Arcia
Colby Fitch James Skelton Mike Falsetti Jake Lowery
Jared Oliva Cory Sullivan Jason Repko McKay Christensen
Zach Humphreys Mike Sadek Pete Gonzalez Chris Turner
Monte Harrison Dante Powell Fred Winston Mike Couture
Jake Palomaki Matt Williams Hanley Frias Sergio Ferrer
Mickey Moniak Ryan Stevenson Cesar Hernandez Fabio Gomez
Kurt Suzuki Buddy Rosar Del Crandall Corky Miller
Michael Cruz Clemente Alvarez Rube Walker Logan Johnson
Chad Wallach Lance Burkhart Jon Fuller Peto Ramirez
Jose Gomez Doug Flynn Harold Reichenbach Ben Fjelland
Braxton Martinez JD Closser Bob Rikard Ryan Soules
Aaron Whitefield Dave Krynzel Don White T.J. Baxter
Juan Lagares Dain Clay Eric Fox Peter Bourjos
Gabe Matthews Todd Mensik Matt Rizzotti Dave Falcone
Carlos Reina Jose De La Cruz Jose Salas John Francis
Ryan Aguilar Oscar Grimes Reggie Whittemore Randy Curtis
Bryce Teodosio Andrew Dyes Craig Adams Quinn Stewart
Sonny DiChiara Joe White Alan Ahmady Roger Schmuck
Anthony Mulrine Kris Yoder Kyle Pollock Wally Rosa
Kyle Kasser Keoni De Renne Bruce Christensen Max Schrock
Jake Gatewood Joe Jarrell Kit Pellow 펠로우 Mark Funderburk
Torii Hunter Jr. Ramon Gomez Casio Grider Ed Bady
David Calabrese Jeff Williams Miguel Sabino Peter Hissey
Kevin Maitan Kip Coughlan William Chamberlain Radhames Polanco
Jordyn Adams Danny Rombley Jereme Milons Kevin Kiermaier

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Mike Trout .295 .406 .659 189 6.1 .245 .355 .517 142 3.5
Shohei Ohtani .283 .376 .591 160 5.1 .237 .327 .473 121 1.9
Anthony Rendon .299 .399 .510 148 3.2 .243 .340 .400 104 1.3
Hunter Renfroe .276 .336 .554 141 3.6 .225 .287 .429 99 1.0
Taylor Ward .286 .375 .513 143 3.4 .234 .327 .398 102 0.9
Gio Urshela .310 .358 .492 133 3.3 .253 .302 .394 94 0.9
Luis Rengifo .277 .330 .451 111 2.8 .229 .280 .359 78 0.5
Michael Stefanic .291 .363 .396 110 2.6 .235 .310 .322 77 0.6
Kevin Padlo .256 .325 .469 117 2.6 .202 .271 .356 76 0.6
Logan O’Hoppe .270 .353 .455 120 2.6 .218 .303 .358 84 0.6
Max Stassi .241 .325 .418 100 2.2 .190 .265 .304 61 0.6
Brandon Drury .270 .322 .482 118 2.4 .219 .272 .374 79 0.1
David Fletcher .298 .339 .380 98 2.2 .238 .279 .303 63 -0.1
Jared Walsh .272 .333 .503 127 2.3 .220 .283 .398 88 -0.2
Edgar Quero .259 .356 .456 120 2.3 .206 .301 .344 79 -0.3
Luis Barrera .263 .317 .400 96 1.8 .213 .266 .320 63 0.1
Kean Wong .270 .327 .359 90 1.8 .214 .269 .285 55 -0.3
Jeremiah Jackson .256 .322 .470 116 1.7 .201 .270 .360 72 0.1
Riley Unroe .266 .333 .403 103 1.7 .212 .281 .315 67 -0.1
Dillon Thomas .254 .340 .418 108 1.6 .204 .289 .329 73 -0.3
Orlando Martinez .257 .303 .412 96 1.5 .209 .255 .327 62 -0.5
Matt Thaiss .253 .345 .431 112 1.7 .198 .287 .320 69 -0.5
Andrew Velazquez .240 .299 .403 92 1.5 .188 .247 .303 52 -0.4
Straton Podaras .228 .356 .426 115 1.0 .168 .295 .301 67 -0.2
Livan Soto .252 .318 .357 87 1.5 .207 .273 .284 56 -0.6
Kyren Paris .231 .325 .403 99 1.5 .178 .272 .293 58 -0.8
Jack Mayfield .260 .305 .447 105 1.4 .202 .249 .332 61 -0.6
Matt Duffy .287 .351 .379 103 1.0 .222 .297 .299 67 -0.4
Jo Adell .257 .315 .488 119 1.7 .203 .262 .380 76 -0.9
Steven Duggar .238 .312 .385 91 1.0 .184 .254 .294 51 -0.6
BJ Boyd .288 .336 .432 111 1.1 .227 .279 .339 71 -0.5
Christian Sepulveda .243 .295 .433 100 1.1 .188 .242 .323 57 -0.4
Magneuris Sierra .266 .306 .371 87 1.3 .214 .260 .288 53 -0.6
Zach Neto .263 .329 .427 107 0.6 .212 .276 .327 69 -0.2
Jake Lamb .235 .339 .444 114 0.9 .186 .282 .335 71 -0.8
Mike Ford .249 .350 .445 117 1.1 .195 .291 .329 72 -0.9
José Godoy .262 .319 .384 93 0.8 .200 .259 .290 54 -0.6
Colby Fitch .198 .317 .356 87 0.3 .142 .253 .251 43 -0.2
Jared Oliva .259 .315 .397 93 0.9 .207 .260 .309 57 -1.0
Zach Humphreys .244 .348 .363 97 0.7 .183 .286 .264 56 -0.7
Monte Harrison .226 .303 .397 88 0.8 .173 .249 .290 47 -0.9
Jake Palomaki .253 .332 .311 82 0.6 .201 .276 .244 48 -0.9
Mickey Moniak .249 .295 .454 105 1.1 .197 .245 .356 66 -1.0
Kurt Suzuki .272 .345 .428 112 0.4 .206 .288 .317 70 -0.7
Michael Cruz .240 .322 .390 96 0.3 .183 .261 .291 54 -0.7
Chad Wallach .229 .307 .382 88 0.5 .174 .249 .281 48 -1.1
Jose Gomez .248 .293 .342 77 0.7 .196 .242 .268 44 -1.0
Braxton Martinez .229 .326 .386 95 0.5 .179 .271 .297 57 -1.2
Aaron Whitefield .240 .297 .358 80 0.6 .187 .245 .279 46 -1.1
Juan Lagares .253 .297 .400 89 0.3 .191 .237 .293 46 -1.1
Gabe Matthews .224 .324 .380 93 0.4 .172 .271 .288 56 -1.6
Carlos Reina .198 .270 .281 52 -0.3 .142 .214 .199 18 -0.9
Ryan Aguilar .219 .320 .359 86 0.2 .166 .264 .261 47 -1.6
Bryce Teodosio .200 .275 .334 68 0.2 .146 .225 .247 32 -1.5
Sonny DiChiara .187 .320 .230 56 -0.5 .131 .263 .165 24 -1.1
Anthony Mulrine .215 .305 .284 64 -0.4 .153 .248 .206 27 -1.4
Kyle Kasser .266 .326 .320 79 -0.3 .212 .269 .253 47 -1.8
Jake Gatewood .220 .264 .420 86 0.0 .166 .213 .308 44 -2.3
Torii Hunter Jr. .234 .293 .355 77 -0.4 .182 .243 .275 43 -1.9
David Calabrese .228 .284 .343 72 -0.2 .177 .229 .267 38 -2.1
Kevin Maitan .223 .281 .346 71 -0.4 .175 .231 .260 38 -2.2
Jordyn Adams .228 .283 .327 68 -0.6 .177 .238 .249 37 -2.4

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Shohei Ohtani R 28 13 8 3.00 27 27 156.0 122 52 17 45 193
Patrick Sandoval L 26 8 6 3.55 25 25 137.0 124 54 14 54 141
Aaron Loup L 35 2 3 3.86 57 0 51.3 47 22 6 17 46
Jimmy Herget R 29 2 3 3.90 49 1 62.3 57 27 7 23 62
Eric Torres L 23 2 3 3.91 47 0 53.0 42 23 6 27 67
Jacob Webb R 29 4 3 3.92 43 0 43.7 40 19 6 15 47
Carlos Estévez R 30 4 3 3.92 62 0 57.3 53 25 8 23 61
Archie Bradley R 30 3 4 4.09 44 0 44.0 45 20 5 16 37
José Suarez L 25 8 8 4.09 25 20 114.3 106 52 14 39 106
Chris Rodriguez R 24 2 2 4.10 22 8 48.3 46 22 4 25 43
Ryan Tepera R 35 3 3 4.10 52 0 48.3 42 22 6 20 45
Chase Silseth R 23 5 6 4.10 22 22 105.3 96 48 14 41 107
Reid Detmers L 23 6 7 4.11 25 25 127.0 113 58 18 45 135
José Quijada L 27 3 2 4.13 46 0 48.0 39 22 7 23 60
Ky Bush L 23 6 6 4.17 22 22 103.7 105 48 13 36 85
Tyler Anderson L 33 8 9 4.17 26 25 149.0 151 69 24 33 121
Brian Moran L 34 2 3 4.26 43 1 44.3 41 21 5 17 43
Jaime Barría R 26 4 5 4.27 29 11 90.7 94 43 14 24 65
Jack Dashwood L 25 3 3 4.27 28 5 78.0 79 37 11 22 70
Griffin Canning R 27 4 4 4.33 14 14 68.7 64 33 10 29 67
Landon Marceaux R 23 5 7 4.35 22 22 97.3 106 47 13 23 62
Jake Kalish L 31 5 6 4.35 23 11 82.7 87 40 12 24 66
Zack Weiss R 31 3 3 4.38 42 0 51.3 46 25 7 27 59
Ty Buttrey R 30 2 2 4.40 42 0 43.0 43 21 5 22 38
Glenn Albanese Jr. R 24 1 1 4.40 31 1 45.0 45 22 6 18 37
Mike Mayers R 31 2 3 4.43 35 7 69.0 66 34 10 29 67
Luke Murphy R 23 5 6 4.44 44 0 48.7 44 24 6 27 50
Brett Kerry R 24 5 6 4.47 24 19 96.7 98 48 16 33 88
Ryan Smith L 25 4 5 4.48 27 14 90.3 91 45 14 33 82
Kolton Ingram L 26 3 3 4.50 43 0 48.0 46 24 7 22 49
Rob Zastryzny L 31 3 4 4.50 30 8 64.0 65 32 9 25 63
Jonathan Aro R 32 4 5 4.53 33 5 55.7 62 28 7 16 36
Chris Devenski R 32 1 2 4.54 35 2 37.7 39 19 7 10 37
Austin Warren R 27 3 4 4.56 41 0 51.3 51 26 7 24 46
Andrew Wantz R 27 3 3 4.57 40 6 65.0 62 33 12 26 68
Fernando Romero R 28 6 8 4.57 27 15 102.3 109 52 11 46 71
Mason Erla R 25 5 6 4.59 17 17 80.3 88 41 12 20 52
Grant Dayton L 35 1 1 4.62 37 0 39.0 39 20 7 18 39
Davis Daniel R 26 5 7 4.62 21 20 99.3 102 51 15 32 72
Oliver Ortega R 26 3 5 4.66 41 5 65.7 66 34 10 32 62
Kyle Barraclough R 33 3 4 4.67 43 0 44.3 39 23 7 26 52
Tucker Davidson L 27 6 9 4.69 23 22 111.3 110 58 17 50 103
Kenny Rosenberg L 27 4 6 4.71 20 14 80.3 80 42 12 38 72
Jake Lee R 28 2 2 4.71 12 8 28.7 30 15 5 11 26
Wander Suero R 31 3 4 4.73 40 0 40.0 41 21 6 14 35
Ivan Armstrong R 22 3 5 4.73 34 0 45.7 45 24 6 19 40
César Valdez R 38 5 7 4.73 25 17 110.3 126 58 18 22 86
Coleman Crow R 22 5 6 4.75 22 20 113.7 119 60 16 42 87
Gerardo Reyes R 30 3 4 4.78 47 0 49.0 44 26 7 28 57
Jose Marte R 27 2 3 4.79 36 3 47.0 42 25 7 32 55
Jhonathan Diaz L 26 4 6 4.87 20 16 81.3 80 44 11 37 71
Touki Toussaint R 27 3 4 4.89 27 13 73.7 66 40 11 41 76
Braden Olthoff R 24 5 8 4.89 21 15 92.0 103 50 12 32 53
Jonathan Holder R 30 1 3 4.94 20 1 27.3 29 15 4 11 24
Sam Bachman R 23 1 2 4.99 17 17 61.3 65 34 8 31 41
Nick Jones L 24 2 3 4.99 37 0 39.7 36 22 5 25 40
Nash Walters R 26 3 5 5.01 42 2 50.3 49 28 8 26 52
Robinson Pina R 24 5 8 5.04 21 17 84.0 81 47 15 47 91
Cam Vieaux L 29 3 5 5.05 32 10 73.0 77 41 13 34 64
Cristopher Molina R 26 4 5 5.06 22 8 74.7 79 42 12 32 60
Luis Ledo R 28 3 5 5.06 34 0 37.3 38 21 6 24 35
Dylan King R 26 2 3 5.11 18 5 44.0 43 25 8 23 46
John Swanda R 24 4 7 5.14 17 12 75.3 86 43 13 23 46
Brent Killam L 25 4 6 5.28 18 17 75.0 78 44 14 34 66
Keith Rogalla R 27 1 2 5.28 21 2 30.7 32 18 4 19 24
Aaron Hernandez R 26 3 4 5.34 26 9 55.7 58 33 9 31 48
Justin Garza R 29 2 5 6.11 30 6 56.0 60 38 13 35 56
Kodi Medeiros L 27 1 4 6.42 20 3 40.7 43 29 8 29 34

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Shohei Ohtani 156.0 11.1 2.6 1.0 7.1% 30.3% .283 144 3.10 69 4.1
Patrick Sandoval 137.0 9.3 3.5 0.9 9.2% 24.0% .296 122 3.69 82 2.8
Aaron Loup 51.3 8.1 3.0 1.1 7.9% 21.5% .283 112 4.22 89 0.6
Jimmy Herget 62.3 9.0 3.3 1.0 8.7% 23.5% .292 111 3.88 90 0.7
Eric Torres 53.0 11.4 4.6 1.0 11.9% 29.5% .288 111 4.08 90 0.4
Jacob Webb 43.7 9.7 3.1 1.2 8.1% 25.3% .296 110 3.95 91 0.4
Carlos Estévez 57.3 9.6 3.6 1.3 9.3% 24.6% .296 110 4.10 91 0.5
Archie Bradley 44.0 7.6 3.3 1.0 8.4% 19.4% .303 106 4.18 95 0.3
José Suarez 114.3 8.3 3.1 1.1 8.0% 21.9% .287 106 4.10 95 1.8
Chris Rodriguez 48.3 8.0 4.7 0.7 11.5% 19.8% .298 106 4.19 95 0.7
Ryan Tepera 48.3 8.4 3.7 1.1 9.6% 21.6% .271 106 4.27 95 0.4
Chase Silseth 105.3 9.1 3.5 1.2 9.1% 23.6% .289 105 4.16 95 1.6
Reid Detmers 127.0 9.6 3.2 1.3 8.4% 25.2% .285 105 4.10 95 1.9
José Quijada 48.0 11.3 4.3 1.3 11.2% 29.3% .283 105 4.17 95 0.4
Ky Bush 103.7 7.4 3.1 1.1 8.0% 19.0% .297 104 4.27 96 1.5
Tyler Anderson 149.0 7.3 2.0 1.4 5.3% 19.4% .287 104 4.37 96 2.1
Brian Moran 44.3 8.7 3.5 1.0 8.9% 22.6% .293 101 4.30 99 0.2
Jaime Barría 90.7 6.5 2.4 1.4 6.3% 16.9% .286 101 4.62 99 1.0
Jack Dashwood 78.0 8.1 2.5 1.3 6.6% 21.1% .301 101 4.15 99 0.9
Griffin Canning 68.7 8.8 3.8 1.3 9.7% 22.4% .287 100 4.54 100 0.8
Landon Marceaux 97.3 5.7 2.1 1.2 5.5% 14.8% .295 99 4.39 101 1.3
Jake Kalish 82.7 7.2 2.6 1.3 6.8% 18.6% .299 99 4.46 101 1.0
Zack Weiss 51.3 10.3 4.7 1.2 11.8% 25.8% .298 99 4.32 101 0.1
Ty Buttrey 43.0 8.0 4.6 1.0 11.3% 19.6% .302 98 4.57 102 0.1
Glenn Albanese Jr. 45.0 7.4 3.6 1.2 9.0% 18.4% .291 98 4.58 102 0.2
Mike Mayers 69.0 8.7 3.8 1.3 9.7% 22.3% .293 97 4.49 103 0.6
Luke Murphy 48.7 9.2 5.0 1.1 12.5% 23.1% .290 97 4.49 103 0.2
Brett Kerry 96.7 8.2 3.1 1.5 7.9% 21.0% .296 97 4.57 103 1.1
Ryan Smith 90.3 8.2 3.3 1.4 8.4% 20.8% .296 96 4.55 104 1.0
Kolton Ingram 48.0 9.2 4.1 1.3 10.4% 23.1% .298 96 4.57 104 0.0
Rob Zastryzny 64.0 8.9 3.5 1.3 8.9% 22.4% .309 96 4.28 104 0.6
Jonathan Aro 55.7 5.8 2.6 1.1 6.6% 14.8% .302 96 4.52 105 0.4
Chris Devenski 37.7 8.8 2.4 1.7 6.3% 23.1% .305 95 4.56 105 0.1
Austin Warren 51.3 8.1 4.2 1.2 10.5% 20.2% .297 95 4.71 105 0.0
Andrew Wantz 65.0 9.4 3.6 1.7 9.2% 24.1% .289 95 4.80 106 0.4
Fernando Romero 102.3 6.2 4.0 1.0 9.9% 15.3% .301 95 4.69 106 1.0
Mason Erla 80.3 5.8 2.2 1.3 5.8% 15.2% .293 94 4.70 106 0.8
Grant Dayton 39.0 9.0 4.2 1.6 10.5% 22.7% .299 94 4.95 107 0.0
Davis Daniel 99.3 6.5 2.9 1.4 7.5% 16.9% .285 94 4.81 107 1.0
Oliver Ortega 65.7 8.5 4.4 1.4 10.8% 20.9% .301 93 4.84 108 0.3
Kyle Barraclough 44.3 10.6 5.3 1.4 13.1% 26.1% .291 93 4.75 108 0.0
Tucker Davidson 111.3 8.3 4.0 1.4 10.2% 21.1% .294 92 4.74 108 1.0
Kenny Rosenberg 80.3 8.1 4.3 1.3 10.7% 20.2% .294 92 4.87 109 0.7
Jake Lee 28.7 8.2 3.5 1.6 8.6% 20.3% .301 92 4.86 109 0.3
Wander Suero 40.0 7.9 3.2 1.4 8.0% 20.0% .299 92 4.55 109 -0.1
Ivan Armstrong 45.7 7.9 3.7 1.2 9.4% 19.8% .293 91 4.75 109 0.0
César Valdez 110.3 7.0 1.8 1.5 4.6% 18.1% .313 91 4.37 109 0.9
Coleman Crow 113.7 6.9 3.3 1.3 8.5% 17.5% .296 91 4.77 110 1.0
Gerardo Reyes 49.0 10.5 5.1 1.3 12.8% 26.1% .298 91 4.70 110 -0.1
Jose Marte 47.0 10.5 6.1 1.3 14.7% 25.2% .297 90 4.98 111 0.1
Jhonathan Diaz 81.3 7.9 4.1 1.2 10.3% 19.8% .292 89 5.01 113 0.6
Touki Toussaint 73.7 9.3 5.0 1.3 12.5% 23.2% .282 88 5.15 113 0.5
Braden Olthoff 92.0 5.2 3.1 1.2 7.9% 13.1% .297 88 4.97 113 0.7
Jonathan Holder 27.3 7.9 3.6 1.3 9.1% 19.8% .309 88 4.62 114 0.0
Sam Bachman 61.3 6.0 4.5 1.2 11.2% 14.7% .292 87 5.27 115 0.4
Nick Jones 39.7 9.1 5.7 1.1 13.7% 21.9% .290 87 4.97 115 -0.1
Nash Walters 50.3 9.3 4.6 1.4 11.4% 22.8% .299 86 4.94 116 0.0
Robinson Pina 84.0 9.8 5.0 1.6 12.3% 23.8% .297 86 5.20 116 0.5
Cam Vieaux 73.0 7.9 4.2 1.6 10.4% 19.5% .299 86 5.32 117 0.2
Cristopher Molina 74.7 7.2 3.9 1.4 9.5% 17.8% .298 85 5.20 117 0.3
Luis Ledo 37.3 8.4 5.8 1.4 13.7% 20.0% .302 85 5.38 117 -0.2
Dylan King 44.0 9.4 4.7 1.6 11.6% 23.2% .297 85 5.13 118 0.1
John Swanda 75.3 5.5 2.7 1.6 6.8% 13.7% .296 84 5.25 119 0.4
Brent Killam 75.0 7.9 4.1 1.7 10.1% 19.7% .294 82 5.54 122 0.2
Keith Rogalla 30.7 7.0 5.6 1.2 13.1% 16.6% .298 82 5.34 122 -0.1
Aaron Hernandez 55.7 7.8 5.0 1.5 12.1% 18.8% .299 81 5.42 123 0.1
Justin Garza 56.0 9.0 5.6 2.1 13.4% 21.4% .303 71 6.26 141 -0.5
Kodi Medeiros 40.7 7.5 6.4 1.8 14.9% 17.4% .292 67 6.69 148 -0.6

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Shohei Ohtani Roger Clemens Bert Blyleven Burleigh Grimes 5.3 2.9 2.33 3.77
Patrick Sandoval Steve Barber Danny Jackson Bob Smith 3.6 1.9 3.09 4.13
Aaron Loup Sparky Lyle Jeremy Affeldt Scott Downs 1.1 0.0 3.00 5.07
Jimmy Herget Mike Fornieles Bud Tinning Kevin Quackenbush 1.3 0.0 3.18 4.94
Eric Torres Darren Oliver Tim Collins Ed Vande Berg 1.0 -0.2 3.12 4.95
Jacob Webb Mike Schooler Randy Moffitt Jim Corsi 0.8 -0.1 3.21 5.09
Carlos Estévez Hansel Robles Pedro Baez Shane Greene 1.1 -0.1 3.19 5.16
Archie Bradley Mark Dewey Jeremy Accardo Danny Kolb 0.7 -0.1 3.41 5.11
José Suarez Bobby Shantz Ray Sadecki Jamie Moyer 2.5 1.0 3.62 4.66
Chris Rodriguez Tom Baker Gordon Rhodes Jim Winn 1.0 0.3 3.54 4.84
Ryan Tepera Kent Tekulve Rafael Soriano Matt Albers 0.9 -0.3 3.16 5.38
Chase Silseth Dave Hasbach Adam Eaton Tommy Greene 2.4 0.8 3.57 4.82
Reid Detmers Ken Holtzman CC Sabathia Larry Jaster 2.9 1.0 3.46 4.88
José Quijada Kevin Siegrist Antonio Bastardo Daniel Schlereth 1.0 -0.2 3.21 5.24
Ky Bush Breen Newcomer Craig Caskey Bob Mulligan 2.1 0.8 3.68 4.85
Tyler Anderson Wilbur Wood Eppa Rixey Charlie Leibrandt 2.9 1.2 3.68 4.82
Brian Moran Billy Hoeft Frank DiPino Gary Lucas 0.7 -0.2 3.49 5.18
Jaime Barría Jim Willoughby John Dettmer Jim Barr 1.6 0.4 3.74 4.85
Jack Dashwood Pat Underwood Andy Hazlett Tom Flanigan 1.5 0.2 3.55 5.16
Griffin Canning Frank Brosseau Bob Porterfield Dick Lange 1.3 0.3 3.85 4.96
Landon Marceaux LaDon Boyd Tim Hamm Tim Brown 1.7 0.7 3.88 4.93
Jake Kalish Blaine Beatty Jack Kralick Jim Archer 1.6 0.4 3.76 5.07
Zack Weiss Louis Coleman Eddie De La Cruz Bob Long 0.6 -0.4 3.60 5.30
Ty Buttrey Ryan Speier Larry Rothschild Ken Trinkle 0.5 -0.3 3.71 5.23
Glenn Albanese Jr. Paul Erickson Daniel Baca Felipe Arredondo 0.5 -0.1 3.90 4.97
Mike Mayers Jim Coates Mark Leiter Bill Kelso 1.1 0.0 3.86 5.20
Luke Murphy Tom Baker Mark Brown Tim Spooneybarger 0.5 -0.2 3.86 5.11
Brett Kerry Daniel McCutchen Bobby Brownlie Gene Garber 1.7 0.4 3.97 5.20
Ryan Smith Clyde Wright Chuck Stobbs Al Olmsted 1.7 0.2 3.83 5.22
Kolton Ingram Andy Carter Sean Runyan Bobby Seay 0.5 -0.4 3.82 5.24
Rob Zastryzny Trever Miller Buddy Groom Jorge Castillo 1.1 -0.1 3.75 5.41
Jonathan Aro Lary Sorensen Bobby Korecky Scott Winchester 0.8 0.0 3.94 5.23
Chris Devenski Derrick DePriest Bruce Walton Bob Gebhard 0.4 -0.3 3.64 5.47
Austin Warren Brett Bochy Todd Erdos Ross Wolf 울프 0.4 -0.4 3.97 5.35
Andrew Wantz Keith Atherton Marcos Mateo Jerry Johnson 0.9 -0.3 3.89 5.52
Fernando Romero Eddie Butler 버틀러 Jason Davis Enrique Gonzalez 1.6 0.3 4.07 5.13
Mason Erla Richelson Pena Jae Hun Jung Jamie Brown 브라운 1.3 0.3 4.09 5.20
Grant Dayton Jerry Don Gleaton Grant Jackson Alberto Castillo 0.4 -0.5 3.64 6.17
Davis Daniel Mike Harkey Mike Thurman Arnie Portocarrero 1.6 0.5 4.15 5.11
Oliver Ortega Justin Mallett RJ Hively Joey Williamson 0.8 -0.2 4.10 5.42
Kyle Barraclough Johnny Klippstein Ricky Bottalico Turk Lown 0.4 -0.7 3.82 6.19
Tucker Davidson Roenis Elias Gino Minutelli Herb Hippauf 1.8 0.1 4.11 5.42
Kenny Rosenberg Chris Peters Dick Estelle Ignacio Montano 1.2 0.2 4.16 5.30
Jake Lee Euel Moore Cloyd Boyer Santo Alcala 0.4 0.1 4.25 5.47
Wander Suero Billy Loes Jack Cullen Brandon Lyon 0.3 -0.4 3.81 5.71
Ivan Armstrong Harvey Shank Charles Chapple Ronnie Mantsch 0.3 -0.3 4.15 5.40
César Valdez Gaylord Perry Ramon Ortiz Bert Blyleven 1.6 0.2 4.18 5.48
Coleman Crow Craig Scramuzzo Dustin Moseley Omar Bencomo 1.8 0.4 4.20 5.30
Gerardo Reyes Jose Alvarez Deunte Heath Bob Galasso 0.5 -0.5 3.83 5.90
Jose Marte Linder Castro Doug Neuenschwander Jhan Marinez 0.5 -0.4 4.03 5.62
Jhonathan Diaz Robert Box Gary Christenson Ron Locke 1.1 0.0 4.35 5.53
Touki Toussaint Eli Grba Dave Sisler Hank Webb 1.0 -0.3 4.21 5.78
Braden Olthoff Troy Chestnut Jay Davis 데이비스son Dean Rennicke 1.1 0.1 4.48 5.41
Jonathan Holder Daryl Patterson Blas Cedeno Jimmy Marrujo 0.3 -0.2 4.16 6.04
Sam Bachman Rick Rodriguez Gerry Glynn Mike Walters 0.7 0.0 4.56 5.53
Nick Jones Carlos Cabassa Chris Marchok David Sanders 0.3 -0.4 4.25 5.82
Nash Walters Sam Wolff Luis Pena Adam Miller 0.3 -0.4 4.33 5.75
Robinson Pina Corey Thurman Todd Elam Justin Dunn 1.1 -0.2 4.44 5.70
Cam Vieaux Colin Young Matt Whitehouse Pete Olsen 0.7 -0.4 4.50 5.96
Cristopher Molina Hansel Izquierdo Don O’Riley Doug Cinnella 0.7 -0.3 4.55 5.73
Luis Ledo Roberto Verdugo Frank Mata Carl Dale 0.1 -0.6 4.46 5.98
Dylan King Yoan Lopez Fernando Zarranz Mike Perconte 0.5 -0.3 4.33 5.88
John Swanda Richard Sadler Xavier Hernandez Royal Clayton 0.7 -0.1 4.72 5.78
Brent Killam Tim Kalita Andy Carter Kent Murphy 0.7 -0.3 4.74 5.91
Keith Rogalla Brian Stemberger Goose Gregson Mike Shields 0.2 -0.3 4.58 6.18
Aaron Hernandez Joseph Pollack Madison Younginer Eduardo Paulino 0.4 -0.4 4.77 6.07
Justin Garza Phillippe Aumont Trevor Longfellow Jake Stinnett 0.0 -1.1 5.33 7.28
Kodi Medeiros C.J. Riefenhauser Jose Fernandez Chad Bentz -0.2 -1.0 5.66 7.43

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Michaelmember
1 month ago

No one could’ve expected the Rendon contract to go so badly. It’s not like he was a pitcher. To use a random stat: in his last 4 years in DC he had 38,41, 44 and 44 doubles. In his 3 seasons in LA he’s had 34 TOTAL.

MikeSmember
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael

I think things like that are what scare off “mid-market” clubs from making big free agent signings. Their bias is to only see the recency and the downside risk, as opposed to the Mets, Dodgers, and Yankees who seem to feel like “if we do this with enough guys, some of them will work out and we can afford to miss on a few.

darren
1 month ago
Reply to  MikeS

I wonder if it actually scares them or if it’s a convenient excuse. I’ve always wondered if the Orioles chose to sign Davis specifically because as an aging slugger, there was a decent chance he’d fall apart, and they could point to that when passing on other players later. Probably not… but maybe!

Anon21
1 month ago
Reply to  Michael

Yeah, to the extent one can feel bad for a baseball corporation with only three or four players I recognize, I do feel bad for the Angels that the Rendon contract blew up. They were trying to do the right thing and even though he was a fragile player, I don’t think this disaster was in any way foreseeable.

EonADS
1 month ago
Reply to  Anon21

I don’t think you can really call him “fragile” prior to 2021. Yeah, he missed some time in DC, but he’d played six full seasons (52 of 60 in 2020) in seven and a half years before blowing up in 2021. He had minor bumps each year, but given that he’s, y’know, a pro athlete who played at a very high level, that’s understandable.

Last edited 1 month ago by EonADS
Anon21
1 month ago
Reply to  EonADS

I guess it depends what you mean by “full season.” He’s never played all 162, but I would consider 2014 (153 games) and 2016 (156 games) to be full seasons, certainly. 2015 obviously he missed half the year, but he also missed 26 games in 2018 and about 15 each in 2017 and 2019. Perhaps “fragile” is a little strong, but he was a guy who consistently missed time with injuries when he played in Washington.

As I said, I don’t think the track record he compiled remotely prepared the Angels for what they got. It was an unforeseeable disaster.

68FCmember
1 month ago
Reply to  Anon21

Going off PA, from 2014-2019 he had at least 597 PA in each season except 2015. I think 600 PA is pretty reasonably a “full season.” His 2020 was about a 600 PA pace as well. He only had 2 IL stints, both for under 2 weeks between August 2015-April 2021.

I don’t know for sure, but I would guess that is probably a below average number of IL days over a 5 year stretch.

NATS Fanmember
1 month ago
Reply to  68FC

He batted first or second much of those years. Batting first 600 pa is not a full season.

FranklinP
1 month ago
Reply to  NATS Fan

Season Batting 1st. Batting 2nd. Season Total
2014 – 52 PA 529 PA 683 PA
2016 – 0 PA 158 PA 647 PA
2017 – 0 PA 43 PA 605 PA
2018 – 0 PA 93 PA 597 PA
2019 – 0 PA 15 PA 646 PA

Outside of 2014, he batted 1st or 2nd not much of those years. Opinions may differ as to how many PA’s count as a full season for a leadoff hitter, but Rendon wasn’t one, so it doesn’t really apply here.

cowdisciplemember
1 month ago
Reply to  EonADS

When they signed Rendon he was coming off two 6 WAR seasons and a 7 WAR season. It looked like a bit of an overpay at the time, but it’s gone much worse than any reasonable median expectation.

diamonddoresmember
1 month ago
Reply to  EonADS

he did have the injury to end his amazing 2009 season at Rice. Gosh he was so freaking absurd in college