2022 ZiPS Projections: San Francisco Giants

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the San Francisco Giants.

Batters

I feel a bit of disquietude when projecting the 2022 Giants. Following up on your biggest team projection miss in nearly 20 years of making said projections doesn’t feel great. Even worse is when your current projection is far closer to the previous year’s very wrong forecast than it is to the previous season’s actual win total. It’s a challenge to convince people that I didn’t write a model for sour grapes and reassure them that I’m an egalitarian who hates every team equally, no matter which one you root for!

In this case, I generally agree with ZiPS that the most significant regressions toward the mean will come on the offense. Let’s start with catcher. At least with the bat, Buster Posey matched some of his best seasons with his stunning 2021 campaign, this despite sitting out the entire 2020 season. With a 35-year-old catcher, it was already likely that some of those wins were going to melt off San Francisco’s total, but Posey’s retirement makes the position even more uncertain. Joey Bart is an outstanding prospect, but even just replacing Posey’s 2022 projection is going to be a tall order. ZiPS does like Bart’s bat a little better than Steamer does, but I don’t think he’s going to make fans forget their retired franchise player particularly quickly.

Then there’s Brandon Crawford. His glove isn’t what it was at its peak, but he managed his best offensive season at age 34. Still, the decline rate for mid-30s shortstops is quite steep. The Giants also got some great performances out of former stars like Evan Longoria and wrung a lot out of role players like Darin Ruf, but the story of San Francisco’s offense was a lot of aging players hitting exceptionally well, not a young phenom like Ronald Acuña Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr. carrying the load. In fact, the Giants got more WAR out of 30-and-over position players than any team in baseball:

2021 WAR by Position Players Age 30 or Older
Team PA HR WAR
San Francisco Giants 3823 161 22.2
Los Angeles Dodgers 2688 123 15.9
Houston Astros 2765 85 12.7
Tampa Bay Rays 1814 72 10.7
Milwaukee Brewers 2666 88 10.1
St. Louis Cardinals 2054 79 9.6
Chicago White Sox 2481 82 9.5
Philadelphia Phillies 2809 99 9.2
Toronto Blue Jays 1388 74 8.9
Miami Marlins 2856 82 8.7
Kansas City Royals 2704 89 8.1
New York Yankees 2597 91 7.9
Cincinnati Reds 2389 84 6.2
Seattle Mariners 1733 85 6.2
Oakland Athletics 2780 62 6.0
Minnesota Twins 1740 63 5.6
Atlanta Braves 2462 84 5.5
Colorado Rockies 1562 59 4.9
Washington Nationals 2284 50 4.9
Arizona Diamondbacks 2702 64 4.0
Boston Red Sox 1822 48 3.9
San Diego Padres 1966 48 3.8
Chicago Cubs 2037 55 3.8
New York Mets 1297 43 3.0
Pittsburgh Pirates 473 8 2.3
Detroit Tigers 1393 50 2.1
Los Angeles Angels 2873 79 2.1
Cleveland Guardians 709 29 1.9
Baltimore Orioles 413 13 0.3
Texas Rangers 623 13 0.3

Only four other teams got even 10 wins out of their 30-and-over position players in 2021. Not all of those players will decline, but as a group, it’s a pretty good bet they will, especially when they were already performing above expectations. The simple truth is that projections do better in the long run than over the relatively small sample of a season. For example, when looking at how players who qualified for a batting title in 2015 were projected for 2016-21, the average error was four points of batting average, 14 points of on-base percentage, and 26 points of slugging percentage, smaller gaps than the projections for 2016 only. And in this case, historically, the prior year’s preseason projection has been slightly more predictive of the following year’s record than the preceding year’s actual win-loss record. One of the cruelest things about working with projections is that the things you’re projecting are basically small sample sizes, so you never know if you were right or lucky or wrong or unlucky — you can only guess.

What hurts the Giants is that they simply don’t have a lot of room to try to counteract some of their possible offensive declines by making additions. They’re not going to bench players coming off great seasons, especially after having won 107 games, so catcher may be the only position with serious turnover. And there, they’re probably not going to block one of their top prospects, and even if they were more willing to do so than I think, there are no free-agent catchers who are likely to be upgrades on Bart. The best bet is that no matter how clever they are with their player usage — Earl Weaver’s shade must have been smiling about Gabe Kapler’s role juggling — the Giants are likely to drop back to being a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2022.

Pitchers

The Giants’ pitching is what surprised me the least. Now, I’d be lying if I said I predicted the level of success they achieved in 2021, but I was interested in how competent their quick rebuild had been, and I didn’t turn out to be too horribly wrong there. Losing Kevin Gausman is a blow to the team and while the front four looks very good if you assume health for the Alexs (Wood and Cobb), neither’s injury record over the last four or five years suggests we ought to be particularly bullish. That means the Giants may have to test their depth, and even with ZiPS seeing Sean Hjelle and Sammy Long as having legitimate value as major leaguers (the system isn’t as high on Tyler Beede), it feels like the wheels could quickly come off the bus with some bad injury luck. Hopefully, when the lockout concludes and transactions resume, the Giants add another starter.

Like the rotation, the bullpen could use another arm or two. The Giants have a lot in common with yesterday’s ZiPS team, the Mariners, in that they have a respectable bullpen that is long on options but short on dominating arms for the highest-leverage innings. Given his up-and-down history, ZiPS isn’t sure Jake McGee will repeat his 2021 and the system will likely need another year to be totally convinced that Camilo Doval isn’t going to wake up one day and find that the walks he abandoned in the minors have shown up on his doorstep.

So how good are the Giants with this roster? Right now, knife to my back, I’d say they’re slated for about 85 wins. But I can understand why that might feel a bit rage-inducing for fans of a team that just won 107 games. What I don’t understand is why you’re going to such extremes to get a concrete projection. I’ll have one in just a couple of months! Sheesh.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Kris Bryant R 30 3B 590 514 82 134 31 2 23 70 60 136 7 2
Brandon Crawford L 35 SS 508 454 60 116 23 2 16 65 45 102 7 3
Buster Posey R 35 C 419 374 49 101 20 0 11 42 41 78 0 0
Brandon Belt L 34 1B 438 377 59 93 19 2 20 55 54 110 3 2
Austin Slater R 29 CF 386 340 46 85 18 2 12 42 38 102 13 2
Mike Yastrzemski L 31 RF 520 462 69 112 26 4 22 66 47 133 4 2
Mauricio Dubón R 27 2B 552 511 63 134 22 2 13 51 32 94 10 5
Wilmer Flores R 30 3B 409 371 49 101 20 1 14 50 31 52 1 0
Jason Vosler L 28 3B 406 358 52 83 17 2 13 46 36 95 1 0
Bruce Maxwell L 31 C 373 337 41 75 16 0 10 42 33 105 0 0
Brett Auerbach R 23 2B 404 370 46 85 14 1 13 42 25 97 18 3
Thairo Estrada R 26 SS 375 347 53 91 17 1 12 45 21 71 5 2
Steven Duggar L 28 CF 390 354 49 86 19 4 8 40 33 119 10 3
LaMonte Wade Jr. L 28 RF 436 380 57 92 19 3 17 52 43 101 6 2
Evan Longoria R 36 3B 366 332 43 81 15 1 12 48 28 80 2 1
Donovan Solano R 34 2B 339 311 34 87 16 1 5 30 18 59 1 0
Darin Ruf R 35 1B 417 369 47 88 18 1 17 52 41 116 2 1
Joey Bart R 25 C 318 294 38 70 13 1 9 32 17 99 1 1
Arismendy Alcántara B 30 SS 336 308 38 70 11 4 11 39 24 105 7 1
Tyler Fitzgerald R 24 2B 415 382 44 80 18 1 11 40 26 128 7 2
John Nogowski R 29 1B 408 357 49 84 16 0 7 40 40 63 3 1
David Villar R 25 3B 464 423 48 91 20 0 13 44 30 141 3 1
Jaylin Davis R 27 RF 438 394 51 87 16 1 17 49 34 139 6 3
Braden Bishop R 28 LF 338 308 38 75 17 1 7 31 22 75 6 2
Tommy La Stella L 33 2B 274 249 33 66 11 1 6 28 22 28 0 0
Sean Roby R 23 3B 438 404 45 83 17 1 14 43 30 132 2 0
Alex Dickerson L 32 LF 328 297 40 73 14 2 11 39 24 76 1 0
Austin Dean R 28 LF 396 358 47 91 24 1 12 53 31 96 2 3
Curt Casali R 33 C 225 198 20 43 9 0 6 24 22 63 0 0
Ismael Munguia L 23 CF 417 397 60 105 18 2 7 41 11 35 11 4
Mitchell Tolman L 28 3B 389 348 41 73 14 2 6 29 29 108 5 3
Kyle Mottice L 26 2B 186 159 22 36 5 1 0 9 15 29 8 3
Bryce Johnson B 26 CF 459 412 51 91 15 4 5 33 42 136 21 6
Vince Fernandez L 26 LF 305 270 32 49 9 2 11 31 25 125 2 1
Diego Rincones R 23 RF 411 376 49 95 14 2 12 43 22 71 1 0
Patrick Bailey B 23 C 379 349 40 74 17 0 9 29 28 96 4 0
Jason Krizan L 33 1B 432 391 52 99 21 1 9 43 31 69 1 0
Will Toffey L 27 3B 266 228 29 41 9 0 6 22 32 102 4 1
Joe McCarthy L 28 1B 296 261 38 60 13 1 8 32 26 76 3 1
Ricardo Genovés R 23 C 427 394 50 90 18 0 12 40 26 107 0 1
Casey Schmitt R 23 3B 340 320 32 66 12 0 11 29 15 58 1 1
Kwan Adkins L 25 CF 156 142 14 26 4 1 3 12 11 60 5 3
Heliot Ramos R 22 CF 515 477 57 110 22 2 13 44 33 150 12 5
Will Wilson R 23 SS 454 418 44 81 16 1 12 36 30 136 5 1
Marco Luciano R 20 SS 470 433 54 90 13 2 18 54 29 139 4 3
Jairo Pomares L 21 RF 375 356 41 81 19 1 19 51 12 114 1 0
Peter Maris L 28 2B 243 221 24 46 8 2 5 22 17 69 2 1
Brandon Martorano R 24 C 224 196 23 38 6 1 6 18 22 76 3 0
Simon Whiteman R 25 2B 399 356 43 71 12 1 3 21 37 120 20 5
Sandro Fabian R 24 RF 330 312 36 73 10 1 11 38 11 71 1 0
Luis Matos R 20 CF 520 495 66 123 24 0 15 59 16 78 11 2
Jacob Heyward R 26 LF 368 315 34 54 12 0 10 31 44 129 4 4
Ka’ai Tom L 28 LF 397 353 42 74 13 4 11 45 33 120 4 3
Carter Aldrete R 24 3B 306 285 33 58 10 1 7 27 18 94 5 2
Fabian Pena R 25 C 149 142 11 28 7 0 4 15 5 46 1 0
Logan Wyatt L 24 1B 337 294 47 62 8 0 3 19 39 68 1 2
Frankie Tostado L 24 1B 478 447 52 98 14 4 13 51 24 122 1 0
Armani Smith R 23 LF 375 351 47 82 12 2 9 37 19 103 4 1
Franklin Labour R 24 RF 394 348 47 64 12 2 11 36 39 130 6 4
Drew Robinson L 30 RF 198 174 19 27 5 1 4 14 21 92 3 2
Heath Quinn R 27 LF 277 254 25 50 9 1 7 26 18 99 1 1
Luis Toribio L 21 1B 436 395 51 70 15 1 10 35 38 140 1 1

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Kris Bryant .261 .351 .463 119 .202 .313 6.0 -7 3.1 Pinky Higgins
Brandon Crawford .256 .327 .421 102 .165 .298 5.0 3 2.6 Mark DeRosa
Buster Posey .270 .344 .412 105 .142 .316 5.2 0 2.3 Spud Davis
Brandon Belt .247 .347 .467 119 .220 .296 5.8 2 2.2 Richie Hebner
Austin Slater .250 .337 .421 105 .171 .323 5.4 1 2.1 Ryan Spilborghs
Mike Yastrzemski .242 .320 .459 109 .216 .293 5.2 2 2.0 Ben Broussard
Mauricio Dubón .262 .309 .389 89 .127 .300 4.4 5 1.9 Todd Haney
Wilmer Flores .272 .333 .445 109 .173 .285 5.5 -2 1.8 Rick Schu
Jason Vosler .232 .308 .399 91 .168 .280 4.3 2 1.3 Enrico Washington
Bruce Maxwell .223 .292 .359 76 .136 .293 3.6 6 1.3 Jamie Quirk
Brett Auerbach .230 .286 .378 79 .149 .277 4.1 4 1.2 Pokey Reese
Thairo Estrada .262 .315 .421 98 .159 .299 4.9 -4 1.2 Jose Vidro
Steven Duggar .243 .310 .387 89 .144 .344 4.4 2 1.2 Matt Macri
LaMonte Wade Jr. .242 .326 .442 107 .200 .286 5.2 -4 1.1 Randy Bush
Evan Longoria .244 .306 .404 91 .160 .288 4.4 0 1.0 Matt Williams
Donovan Solano .280 .325 .386 93 .106 .332 4.7 -2 0.9 Mark Grudzielanek
Darin Ruf .238 .321 .431 103 .192 .301 4.9 -2 0.9 Ron Santo
Joey Bart .238 .290 .381 81 .143 .328 3.9 0 0.7 Darryl Cias
Arismendy Alcántara .227 .284 .396 83 .169 .307 4.1 -1 0.7 Nick Green
Tyler Fitzgerald .209 .268 .348 66 .139 .284 3.3 7 0.7 Clay Bellinger
John Nogowski .235 .322 .339 81 .104 .268 3.9 6 0.7 Virgil Chevalier
David Villar .215 .280 .355 72 .139 .290 3.4 4 0.6 Juan Espinal
Jaylin Davis .221 .291 .396 85 .175 .294 4.0 3 0.6 Brian Lesher
Braden Bishop .244 .304 .373 83 .130 .301 4.1 3 0.6 Rod Allen
Tommy La Stella .265 .328 .390 95 .124 .279 4.7 -5 0.5 Bernie Allen
Sean Roby .205 .263 .356 67 .151 .267 3.2 6 0.4 Rob Bowen
Alex Dickerson .246 .314 .418 97 .172 .295 4.7 -3 0.4 Shane Spencer
Austin Dean .254 .316 .427 100 .173 .316 4.8 -6 0.4 Mike Brown
Curt Casali .217 .304 .354 79 .136 .287 3.7 -1 0.4 Keith McDonald
Ismael Munguia .264 .290 .373 79 .108 .276 4.0 -2 0.3 Pat Sheridan
Mitchell Tolman .210 .282 .313 62 .103 .286 3.0 6 0.3 Mike Jirschele
Kyle Mottice .226 .328 .270 66 .044 .277 3.2 1 0.2 Scott Bethea
Bryce Johnson .221 .297 .313 67 .092 .317 3.4 0 0.2 Roger Bernadina
Vince Fernandez .181 .264 .352 66 .170 .284 3.1 7 0.1 Jim Betzsold
Diego Rincones .253 .307 .396 90 .144 .283 4.4 -4 0.1 Phil Clark
Patrick Bailey .212 .274 .338 66 .126 .266 3.3 -2 0.1 Damon Berryhill
Jason Krizan .253 .307 .381 86 .128 .288 4.3 -2 0.0 Larry Biittner
Will Toffey .180 .291 .298 61 .118 .292 2.9 0 -0.1 Ryan Owens
Joe McCarthy .230 .306 .379 85 .149 .294 4.1 -2 -0.1 Tim Norrid
Ricardo Genovés .228 .280 .365 74 .137 .284 3.5 -7 -0.1 Kelly Mann
Casey Schmitt .206 .248 .347 60 .141 .219 2.9 3 -0.2 Ben Risinger
Kwan Adkins .183 .252 .289 47 .106 .291 2.3 2 -0.3 Jeremy Harts
Heliot Ramos .231 .285 .367 76 .136 .309 3.7 -8 -0.3 Brent Clevlen
Will Wilson .194 .254 .323 56 .129 .256 2.8 1 -0.3 Tom Schmidt
Marco Luciano .208 .263 .372 70 .164 .261 3.3 -8 -0.5 Adam Fox
Jairo Pomares .228 .259 .447 87 .219 .278 4.1 -7 -0.5 Morgan Walker
Peter Maris .208 .266 .330 61 .122 .279 3.0 -3 -0.5 Tripp Cromer
Brandon Martorano .194 .279 .327 65 .133 .281 3.2 -7 -0.5 Jon Aceves
Simon Whiteman .199 .281 .264 50 .065 .292 2.8 0 -0.5 Jimmy Alvarez
Sandro Fabian .234 .267 .378 73 .144 .270 3.6 -3 -0.6 Danny Sheaffer
Luis Matos .248 .277 .388 78 .139 .269 4.0 -13 -0.6 Edgar Tovar
Jacob Heyward .171 .283 .305 61 .133 .250 2.7 1 -0.7 Ray Hansen
Ka’ai Tom .210 .290 .363 76 .153 .284 3.5 -5 -0.7 Nate Murphy
Carter Aldrete .204 .252 .319 55 .116 .277 2.8 -2 -0.8 Travis Metcalf
Fabian Pena .197 .228 .331 50 .134 .261 2.6 -6 -0.9 Jeff Winchester
Logan Wyatt .211 .307 .269 59 .058 .265 2.7 -1 -0.9 Randy Jorgensen
Frankie Tostado .219 .261 .356 66 .136 .272 3.2 0 -1.1 Brennan Boesch
Armani Smith .234 .278 .356 71 .123 .305 3.5 -7 -1.1 David Hall
Franklin Labour .184 .273 .325 62 .141 .256 2.9 -4 -1.2 Jeff Doerr
Drew Robinson .155 .249 .264 40 .109 .295 2.0 -2 -1.2 Kevin Koslofski
Heath Quinn .197 .256 .323 57 .126 .291 2.7 -4 -1.3 Ray Suplee
Luis Toribio .177 .251 .296 48 .119 .245 2.4 -6 -2.5 Fernando Pacheco

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Logan Webb R 25 9 5 3.03 27 26 142.7 126 48 10 37 149 2.95
Alex Wood L 31 8 5 3.65 25 24 125.7 116 51 15 35 133 3.71
Anthony DeSclafani R 32 10 8 4.04 29 29 151.3 142 68 20 41 140 3.92
Alex Cobb R 34 6 5 4.11 16 16 85.3 83 39 10 27 78 3.93
Sean Hjelle R 25 7 7 4.51 24 24 119.7 125 60 13 44 83 4.46
Ryan Murphy R 22 5 5 4.54 23 23 107.0 106 54 15 44 99 4.53
Johnny Cueto R 36 5 5 4.48 18 17 92.3 96 46 13 27 73 4.44
Matt Shoemaker R 35 7 7 4.60 23 18 101.7 102 52 16 31 85 4.59
Michael Plassmeyer L 25 7 7 4.78 23 20 111.0 119 59 19 27 86 4.75
Tyler Rogers R 31 5 3 3.73 72 0 72.3 73 30 6 19 48 3.93
Matt Frisbee R 25 8 9 4.89 23 21 116.0 124 63 20 32 88 4.89
Sammy Long L 26 3 3 4.52 28 12 81.7 80 41 12 31 76 4.55
Norwith Gudino R 26 4 3 4.17 27 6 58.3 54 27 8 23 64 4.11
Camilo Doval R 24 5 4 3.68 57 0 58.7 46 24 5 35 73 3.79
Akeel Morris R 29 5 5 4.68 17 13 73.0 75 38 11 26 61 4.66
Jarlín García L 29 5 4 3.82 57 0 61.3 54 26 7 19 57 3.83
Jake Dahlberg L 28 4 4 4.63 12 11 58.3 61 30 9 18 46 4.69
Jose Alvarez L 33 4 3 3.81 63 1 54.3 53 23 5 19 45 3.82
John Brebbia R 32 3 2 3.74 44 1 45.7 40 19 7 16 57 3.86
Conner Menez L 27 4 5 4.82 33 14 89.7 85 48 14 48 91 4.92
Tyler Chatwood R 32 3 3 4.45 34 6 58.7 51 29 5 41 60 4.54
Tony Watson L 37 5 4 3.91 55 0 48.3 44 21 5 14 42 3.78
Peter Tago R 29 3 2 4.07 33 1 48.7 45 22 5 23 49 4.04
Yunior Marte R 27 2 2 4.15 44 1 60.7 57 28 6 27 58 4.04
Ryan Walker R 26 1 1 3.96 39 0 50.0 50 22 5 15 40 3.90
Tristan Beck R 26 5 5 4.89 14 13 53.3 55 29 7 23 40 4.85
Melvin Adon R 28 5 4 4.48 40 4 60.3 53 30 5 43 66 4.41
Scott Kazmir L 38 3 3 4.89 14 12 46.0 48 25 7 19 37 4.92
Dominic Leone R 30 4 4 4.34 61 3 58.0 51 28 8 28 66 4.20
Jake McGee L 35 2 2 4.12 54 0 48.0 45 22 8 11 48 4.16
Zack Littell R 26 2 2 4.28 65 1 67.3 62 32 10 26 69 4.35
Sam Wolff R 31 1 1 4.03 27 1 29.0 26 13 4 12 32 4.11
Kervin Castro R 23 5 4 4.21 42 0 62.0 59 29 7 26 59 4.15
Patrick Ruotolo R 27 2 2 3.98 40 0 31.7 28 14 4 12 34 4.00
Trenton Toplikar R 26 5 6 5.19 22 18 93.7 103 54 14 41 61 5.29
Ronnie Williams R 26 5 5 4.72 32 4 68.7 70 36 7 37 51 4.81
Tyler Cyr R 29 1 1 4.30 33 1 37.7 35 18 5 20 38 4.64
Hunter Harvey R 27 3 3 4.86 25 6 46.3 49 25 7 15 37 4.71
R.J. Dabovich R 23 1 1 4.22 32 0 32.0 29 15 4 15 31 4.46
Phil Pfeifer L 29 4 4 5.06 17 7 53.3 53 30 8 29 49 5.09
Aaron Sanchez R 29 4 6 5.29 20 19 85.0 91 50 12 45 63 5.37
Jon Duplantier R 27 2 3 5.21 17 12 48.3 49 28 7 29 46 5.21
Silvino Bracho R 29 2 2 4.38 46 0 49.3 47 24 7 18 50 4.27
Gregory Santos R 22 2 2 4.30 18 0 23.0 21 11 3 9 24 4.09
Frank Rubio R 27 3 3 4.47 40 0 48.3 52 24 6 15 31 4.63
Tyler Beede R 29 5 6 5.38 23 19 83.7 84 50 13 53 81 5.34
Logan Ondrusek R 37 2 3 5.47 12 9 51.0 57 31 10 18 40 5.34
Mauricio Llovera R 26 3 4 5.24 31 8 67.0 69 39 11 31 60 5.09
Joey Marciano L 27 3 4 5.00 35 3 54.0 54 30 8 27 50 4.92
Trevor Hildenberger R 31 2 3 5.02 35 1 37.7 38 21 5 19 36 4.67
Aaron Blair R 30 1 2 5.97 8 8 31.7 36 21 4 20 17 5.83
Luis Amaya L 23 1 1 5.17 33 3 54.0 52 31 8 33 52 5.18
Matt Seelinger R 27 2 3 4.93 35 0 42.0 37 23 6 30 51 4.97
Daniel Álvarez R 26 3 3 5.18 26 0 33.0 33 19 5 17 27 5.24
Caleb Baragar L 28 4 6 5.40 42 10 75.0 75 45 13 40 65 5.50
Gerson Garabito R 26 5 7 5.68 25 17 96.7 106 61 16 56 70 5.78
John Russell R 26 3 4 5.36 30 1 47.0 48 28 8 28 43 5.54
Gray Fenter R 26 4 6 5.78 22 14 76.3 78 49 11 52 65 5.59

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Logan Webb 9.4 2.3 0.6 6.3% 25.3% .301 139 72 3.6 Camilo Pascual
Alex Wood 9.5 2.5 1.1 6.6% 25.0% .300 116 87 2.3 Harvey Haddix
Anthony DeSclafani 8.3 2.4 1.2 6.5% 22.3% .287 104 96 2.1 Chris Bosio
Alex Cobb 8.2 2.8 1.1 7.4% 21.5% .298 103 97 1.1 Esteban Loaiza
Sean Hjelle 6.2 3.3 1.0 8.4% 15.8% .296 94 107 1.1 Bill Long
Ryan Murphy 8.3 3.7 1.3 9.4% 21.2% .298 93 108 1.0 Anthony Telford
Johnny Cueto 7.1 2.6 1.3 6.8% 18.4% .296 94 106 0.9 Shane Reynolds
Matt Shoemaker 7.5 2.7 1.4 7.1% 19.5% .288 92 109 0.8 Bob Walk
Michael Plassmeyer 7.0 2.2 1.5 5.7% 18.0% .295 88 113 0.7 Joel Adamson
Tyler Rogers 6.0 2.4 0.7 6.2% 15.6% .291 113 88 0.7 Bob Locker
Matt Frisbee 6.8 2.5 1.6 6.4% 17.6% .293 86 116 0.6 Jin Ho Cho
Sammy Long 8.4 3.4 1.3 8.7% 21.4% .294 93 107 0.6 Tom Bolton
Norwith Gudino 9.9 3.5 1.2 9.2% 25.5% .301 101 99 0.6 Mike Adams
Camilo Doval 11.2 5.4 0.8 13.6% 28.4% .293 115 87 0.6 Mark Littell
Akeel Morris 7.5 3.2 1.4 8.2% 19.2% .295 90 111 0.5 Shawn Holman
Jarlín García 8.4 2.8 1.0 7.5% 22.4% .276 111 90 0.5 Pat Perry
Jake Dahlberg 7.1 2.8 1.4 7.1% 18.2% .294 91 110 0.5 Alfonso Pulido
Jose Alvarez 7.5 3.1 0.8 8.2% 19.4% .296 111 90 0.5 Luis Arroyo
John Brebbia 11.2 3.2 1.4 8.3% 29.7% .300 113 89 0.4 Randy St. Claire
Conner Menez 9.1 4.8 1.4 12.0% 22.8% .292 88 114 0.4 Brian Barnes
Tyler Chatwood 9.2 6.3 0.8 15.3% 22.4% .291 95 105 0.4 Colter Bean
Tony Watson 7.8 2.6 0.9 7.0% 20.9% .283 108 93 0.3 Steve Howe
Peter Tago 9.1 4.3 0.9 10.8% 23.0% .299 104 96 0.3 Ernie Camacho
Yunior Marte 8.6 4.0 0.9 10.2% 21.9% .298 102 98 0.3 Tom Mastny
Ryan Walker 7.2 2.7 0.9 7.0% 18.8% .298 107 94 0.3 Brian Barber
Tristan Beck 6.8 3.9 1.2 9.7% 16.9% .293 86 116 0.3 Mike Birkbeck
Melvin Adon 9.8 6.4 0.7 15.5% 23.8% .302 94 106 0.3 Roy Corcoran
Scott Kazmir 7.2 3.7 1.4 9.3% 18.1% .295 86 116 0.2 Mark Langston
Dominic Leone 10.2 4.3 1.2 11.2% 26.4% .293 97 103 0.2 Richie Lewis 리치
Jake McGee 9.0 2.1 1.5 5.5% 24.1% .285 102 98 0.2 Bob Patterson
Zack Littell 9.2 3.5 1.3 9.0% 24.0% .289 99 101 0.2 Chris Ray
Sam Wolff 9.9 3.7 1.2 9.7% 25.8% .293 105 96 0.2 Tyler Walker
Kervin Castro 8.6 3.8 1.0 9.6% 21.9% .297 100 100 0.2 Todd Frohwirth
Patrick Ruotolo 9.7 3.4 1.1 8.9% 25.2% .289 106 94 0.2 Joe Boever
Trenton Toplikar 5.9 3.9 1.3 9.7% 14.4% .295 81 123 0.2 Kevin Hodges
Ronnie Williams 6.7 4.8 0.9 11.9% 16.3% .296 89 112 0.1 Joe Hudson
Tyler Cyr 9.1 4.8 1.2 12.0% 22.8% .294 98 102 0.1 Roy Corcoran
Hunter Harvey 7.2 2.9 1.4 7.4% 18.2% .298 87 115 0.1 Scott Winchester
R.J. Dabovich 8.7 4.2 1.1 10.7% 22.1% .284 100 100 0.1 Mel Rojas
Phil Pfeifer 8.3 4.9 1.4 12.0% 20.3% .296 83 120 0.1 Randy Niemann
Aaron Sanchez 6.7 4.8 1.3 11.5% 16.1% .299 80 125 0.1 Landon Jacobsen
Jon Duplantier 8.6 5.4 1.3 12.9% 20.5% .304 81 123 0.1 Dennis Sarfate
Silvino Bracho 9.1 3.3 1.3 8.5% 23.5% .296 96 104 0.1 Scott Bankhead
Gregory Santos 9.4 3.5 1.2 9.2% 24.5% .295 98 102 0.0 Jim York
Frank Rubio 5.8 2.8 1.1 7.1% 14.7% .295 94 106 0.0 John Doherty
Tyler Beede 8.7 5.7 1.4 13.7% 20.9% .302 79 127 0.0 Adrian Hernandez
Logan Ondrusek 7.1 3.2 1.8 8.0% 17.7% .301 77 130 -0.1 Kevin Jarvis
Mauricio Llovera 8.1 4.2 1.5 10.3% 20.0% .299 81 124 -0.1 Dave Hooten
Joey Marciano 8.3 4.5 1.3 11.2% 20.7% .299 84 118 -0.1 Jason Jimenez
Trevor Hildenberger 8.6 4.5 1.2 11.2% 21.3% .308 84 119 -0.2 Jason Childers
Aaron Blair 4.8 5.7 1.1 13.3% 11.3% .299 71 141 -0.2 Carlos Chantres
Luis Amaya 8.7 5.5 1.3 13.4% 21.1% .293 82 122 -0.2 Gary Wayne
Matt Seelinger 10.9 6.4 1.3 15.5% 26.4% .301 86 117 -0.2 Brian Wood
Daniel Álvarez 7.4 4.6 1.4 11.4% 18.1% .286 81 123 -0.3 Mike DeJean
Caleb Baragar 7.8 4.8 1.6 11.8% 19.1% .286 78 128 -0.3 John Miglio
Gerson Garabito 6.5 5.2 1.5 12.4% 15.6% .297 74 135 -0.4 Daron Kirkreit
John Russell 8.2 5.4 1.5 12.9% 19.8% .296 79 127 -0.4 Brandon Puffer
Gray Fenter 7.7 6.1 1.3 14.5% 18.2% .298 73 137 -0.4 Tom Davey

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

Losing Gausman hurts, there’s no two ways about it. They’ve got a bunch of money to spend and with Crawford coming back they’re not an obvious spot for Correa (who would be great for them) and there’s no smoke connecting them to him anyway. While I suppose they could always just pocket the money and wait for someone like Aaron Nola or Rafael Devers to hit free agency it seems a little unfortunate that they aren’t going to spring for a top long-term shortstop now because they could really use one.

tz
Member

I thought they were a great fit for Semien, though I can imagine that they were in on him until the Rangers pushed the price where they did.