2022 ZiPS Projections: Houston Astros

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros.

Batters

The outfield, the DH, and the catcher from the 2017 championship team are long gone, yet the Astros have carried on with nary a regret. Joining them on the ex-Astro list is the team’s former phenom, Carlos Correa. One could hardly call him a bust by any stretch of the imagination, but his injury history appears to have been enough to scare Houston off making a decade-long bet on him. The franchise has moved on from stars before, and it will again. But will it pay a serious short-term hit in the win department?

Honestly? No. Now, there’s no denying that a downgrade at shortstop is inevitable. But given Correa’s injury history, you can’t really pencil him in for 150 games. It was likely that the Plan B’s would get at least some playing time, and if 2022 was anything like 2017–19, that time could be substantial. ZiPS projects that we’re talking about a three-win hit for Houston. When you have a shortstop prospect slugging .600 in Triple-A, as Jeremy Peña just missed doing in 2021, it’s hard not to use that player! The more Peña and the less Aledmys Díaz that Houston gets, the better the post-Correa era will feel at the start.

Elsewhere, the Astros don’t really have much in the way of surprises. They have some dizzying highs in the trio of Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Yordan Alvarez, and they avoid being awful anywhere. Even the catcher projections aren’t really that lousy. With catcher defense extremely tricky to quantify, I’m certainly open to the idea that Martín Maldonado’s defense is better than our crude numbers have captured.

As usual, I have zero faith in Yuli Gurriel’s projection. He’ll eventually suffer age-related decline, but I don’t know if it’ll be at 38 or 48 or 58. I’m not sure that when the sun enters its red giant phase, the last vestige of life on Earth isn’t going to be Yuli still hitting .290.

The Edgar Martinez comp for Correa as a hitter might raise some eyebrows. Remember: these are near-age offensive comps, so Martinez was playing third base at the time (so more likely to be compared to a shortstop than a DH). You almost never get a star with a top comp being someone actually in the minor leagues, but the Mariners kept coming to the puzzling conclusion that you ought to want Jim Presley playing baseball for you.

I do think that the Astros would benefit from a little more depth this offseason, though not necessarily of the expensive variety. Jake Meyers is recovering from a torn labrum, and with three starters well into their 30s, they would benefit from additional redundancy.

Pitchers

I keep waiting for the Astros to lose the pitcher who finally sends them over the tipping point. I mentioned above that the offense looked very different than the 2017 champs, but the pitching staff has suffered even more turnover. The only pitcher with an Astros championship ring at the World Series was on the Braves (Charlie Morton).

My concern going into last year was whether the Astros would be able to cobble together a rotation from Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jake Odorizzi, and a multitude of talented-but-raw pitchers with fascinating stuff. They did just that. Once pitchers started coming off the IL in May, Houston moved Cristian Javier to the bullpen not because they lost faith in him but because they had too much starting pitching talent available. How often is that a problem in baseball?

The Astros didn’t win the World Series, but I maintain that 2021 was Dusty Baker’s finest hour. He’s always been a great manager at the non-stat-nerdy parts of the job. The leftover bad feelings around baseball for the trash cananigans are the kind of thing that can distract a team, especially when it starts off with a rather “meh” April, as Houston did. But they didn’t. That’s what you expect from Dusty.

You don’t historically see him doing such yeoman’s work juggling a number of young pitchers. His ability to juggle a young rotation and manage a tired bullpen came into play in the World Series with the team down McCullers. The Astros didn’t win, but it worked wonderfully.

ZiPS is quite optimistic about Verlander, and while I would take the under on a pitcher approaching 40 who basically missed two seasons, I don’t think it’s a shocking projection or one he can’t actually achieve. The computer sees most arms repeating their 2021 performances, a more inspiring season out of Odorizzi, and interesting arms in the upper minors to provide depth.

The only real disappointment is the projection for Forrest Whitley. ZiPS was excited about him back in 2017, but after a 2018 suspension, multiple injuries, and disappointing performance in ’19, and then Tommy John surgery, the computer’s at the point where it’s got to see him pitching successfully in professional baseball before it falls in love. Four years is a lot of development time to lose.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Yordan Alvarez L 25 LF 614 544 97 158 36 1 39 124 61 149 2 1
Kyle Tucker L 25 RF 608 547 95 157 36 4 30 106 54 113 22 3
Carlos Correa R 27 SS 593 520 87 143 30 1 25 94 63 117 1 0
Alex Bregman R 28 3B 550 463 82 127 31 1 23 84 75 74 3 1
Jose Altuve R 32 2B 621 558 101 153 28 2 25 75 54 92 7 4
Michael Brantley L 35 LF 527 483 66 144 30 2 11 56 36 60 3 1
Jake Meyers R 26 CF 494 447 59 110 23 2 17 61 33 127 10 5
Chas McCormick R 27 CF 391 346 49 84 11 2 13 48 35 102 8 3
Yuli Gurriel R 38 1B 550 493 69 141 25 1 14 70 43 64 2 2
Jeremy Peña R 24 SS 414 382 37 97 12 4 15 37 22 110 8 4
Scott Manea R 26 C 318 281 39 62 11 0 9 34 27 80 0 2
Taylor Jones R 28 1B 419 371 53 92 20 1 14 53 37 104 0 1
Yainer Diaz R 23 C 424 405 58 104 18 1 12 55 14 74 2 0
Alex De Goti R 27 SS 485 437 56 96 21 2 8 42 36 122 5 2
Korey Lee R 23 C 381 355 48 87 15 1 10 38 23 79 4 2
Jacob Wilson 윌슨 R 31 3B 377 332 47 72 17 2 14 51 34 86 1 0
Aledmys Díaz R 31 3B 338 308 35 77 18 0 9 45 20 59 1 1
C.J. Hinojosa R 27 2B 457 427 54 109 23 1 9 47 23 83 3 2
Shay Whitcomb R 23 SS 478 446 57 103 16 0 17 59 25 149 17 3
Jason Castro L 35 C 203 172 24 37 8 0 8 22 26 64 0 0
Martín Maldonado R 35 C 375 332 37 65 12 1 11 38 34 109 0 0
J.C. Correa R 23 2B 488 462 64 120 22 1 9 47 22 68 5 5
Marty Costes R 26 RF 373 324 54 81 13 2 6 32 34 71 7 3
Corey Julks R 26 CF 421 388 38 90 20 2 9 32 30 109 10 5
Joe Perez R 22 3B 500 468 54 116 27 0 15 51 30 130 3 3
Enmanuel Valdez L 23 2B 438 401 48 85 18 1 16 56 26 105 4 2
Justin Dirden L 24 RF 366 326 46 67 13 2 15 49 31 125 5 2
Marwin Gonzalez B 33 2B 376 340 37 78 14 0 9 42 27 88 2 2
Michael Papierski B 26 C 410 352 51 67 11 1 7 30 48 106 1 4
Jose Siri R 26 CF 473 437 55 98 18 4 15 58 27 172 20 5
Cesar Salazar L 26 C 238 215 23 45 9 0 6 23 12 55 2 1
J.J. Matijevic L 26 1B 431 392 49 85 20 2 19 56 35 145 6 3
Luis Santana R 22 2B 260 241 26 57 8 0 5 20 12 61 4 2
Luke Berryhill R 24 SS 319 283 41 64 13 0 13 44 24 106 3 1
Scott Schreiber R 26 1B 348 325 43 81 13 1 12 42 16 83 5 3
Yadiel Rivera R 30 SS 285 269 28 58 8 1 6 25 11 81 9 4
Pedro Leon R 24 SS 332 296 42 58 9 1 9 32 31 110 14 7
Norel Gonzalez L 28 1B 358 329 44 83 19 0 12 42 23 73 4 3
Grae Kessinger R 24 SS 344 317 32 62 10 0 8 25 21 87 10 4
Bryan Arias R 25 2B 202 187 20 39 4 0 8 21 13 67 4 2
Robel García B 29 3B 346 309 37 59 11 2 12 44 30 124 1 1
David Hensley R 26 2B 449 415 51 96 20 2 7 37 30 122 7 5
Michael Wielansky R 25 2B 194 176 18 31 5 1 2 10 16 54 2 1
Colton Shaver R 26 1B 364 320 40 56 12 1 15 41 36 143 0 1
C.J. Stubbs R 25 C 350 323 31 65 10 1 8 25 21 131 5 5
Freudis Nova R 22 SS 336 316 28 61 11 1 4 18 19 108 7 2

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Yordan Alvarez .290 .366 .575 150 .285 .334 8.0 -1 4.9 Adrian Gonzalez
Kyle Tucker .287 .352 .532 135 .245 .314 7.4 6 4.8 Reggie Smith
Carlos Correa .275 .354 .481 124 .206 .312 6.4 5 4.7 Edgar Martinez
Alex Bregman .274 .380 .495 135 .220 .284 7.0 1 4.5 Sal Bando
Jose Altuve .274 .340 .466 116 .192 .290 5.9 -3 3.2 Bobby Avila
Michael Brantley .298 .350 .437 112 .139 .323 5.9 1 2.1 Rip Radcliff
Jake Meyers .246 .308 .421 95 .174 .307 4.6 5 1.9 Drew Locke
Chas McCormick .243 .315 .399 92 .156 .307 4.5 6 1.6 Jeff Fiorentino
Yuli Gurriel .286 .342 .426 107 .140 .306 5.5 1 1.4 Carl Furillo
Jeremy Peña .254 .304 .424 95 .170 .319 4.7 -1 1.4 Ian Desmond
Scott Manea .221 .308 .356 80 .135 .276 3.7 4 1.1 Bill McGuire
Taylor Jones .248 .319 .420 99 .173 .308 4.8 3 1.0 Ron Johnson
Yainer Diaz .257 .282 .395 81 .138 .288 4.1 1 1.0 Matt Macri
Alex De Goti .220 .284 .332 67 .112 .287 3.3 9 1.0 Tony Trevino
Korey Lee .245 .292 .377 80 .132 .289 3.9 2 0.9 Rafael Pujols
Jacob Wilson .217 .294 .407 88 .190 .250 4.2 1 0.8 Ed Sprague
Aledmys Díaz .250 .308 .396 89 .146 .283 4.4 1 0.8 Ed Spiezio
C.J. Hinojosa .255 .293 .377 80 .122 .299 4.0 4 0.8 Jason Alfaro
Shay Whitcomb .231 .275 .381 76 .150 .307 3.9 0 0.8 Daniel Mayora
Jason Castro .215 .327 .401 97 .186 .290 4.5 -2 0.7 Tom Wilson
Martín Maldonado .196 .282 .337 67 .142 .255 3.2 3 0.6 Jim Hegan
J.C. Correa .260 .296 .370 80 .110 .288 3.9 1 0.5 Junior Noboa
Marty Costes .250 .335 .358 89 .108 .304 4.4 0 0.5 Ed Jurak
Corey Julks .232 .290 .363 76 .131 .300 3.7 2 0.4 Chris Aguila
Joe Perez .248 .293 .402 86 .154 .313 4.2 -4 0.4 Aurelio Rodriguez
Enmanuel Valdez .212 .263 .382 72 .170 .246 3.4 4 0.3 Glenn Hoffman
Justin Dirden .206 .283 .396 82 .190 .280 3.8 3 0.3 Dan Meier
Marwin Gonzalez .229 .296 .350 75 .121 .284 3.6 1 0.3 Keith Ginter
Michael Papierski .190 .299 .287 61 .097 .251 2.7 2 0.2 Chad Kreuter
Jose Siri .224 .274 .387 77 .162 .332 3.9 -3 0.2 Chris Jones
Cesar Salazar .209 .267 .335 62 .126 .253 3.1 2 0.2 Jim Horner
J.J. Matijevic .217 .281 .423 88 .207 .289 4.1 1 0.2 Oreste Marrero
Luis Santana .237 .286 .332 67 .095 .297 3.4 2 0.1 Ken Pennington
Luke Berryhill .226 .303 .410 91 .184 .311 4.4 -9 0.1 Jared Goedert
Scott Schreiber .249 .294 .406 88 .157 .300 4.3 1 0.1 Nick Alvarez
Yadiel Rivera .216 .247 .320 53 .104 .286 2.8 6 0.1 Jackie Hernandez
Pedro Leon .196 .283 .324 65 .128 .277 3.1 0 0.0 Jimmy Alvarez
Norel Gonzalez .252 .308 .419 95 .167 .291 4.6 -5 -0.1 Jim Bowie
Grae Kessinger .196 .254 .303 51 .107 .243 2.6 4 -0.2 Gil Velazquez
Bryan Arias .209 .262 .358 66 .150 .277 3.2 -1 -0.2 Kevin Perkins
Robel García .191 .267 .356 67 .165 .272 3.1 -1 -0.4 Jose Santos
David Hensley .231 .283 .340 69 .108 .311 3.3 -4 -0.6 Omar Moraga
Michael Wielansky .176 .253 .250 38 .074 .242 2.1 1 -0.7 Matt Easterday
Colton Shaver .175 .272 .359 70 .184 .253 3.1 -6 -1.3 Felix Colon
C.J. Stubbs .201 .258 .313 54 .111 .310 2.6 -10 -1.5 Wilfredo Tejada
Freudis Nova .193 .241 .272 39 .079 .279 2.3 -6 -1.7 Jim Chamblee

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Justin Verlander R 39 12 6 3.39 23 23 146.0 112 55 27 29 180 3.82
Lance McCullers Jr. R 28 10 6 3.58 26 26 145.7 119 58 14 65 163 3.72
Zack Greinke R 38 10 7 4.01 28 28 161.7 156 72 24 34 131 4.18
Luis Garcia R 25 11 8 3.89 30 28 148.0 133 64 21 49 161 3.92
Framber Valdez L 28 10 7 4.00 24 22 132.7 121 59 14 57 125 4.16
Jake Odorizzi R 32 9 7 4.19 26 25 118.0 111 55 19 38 115 4.37
José Urquidy R 27 7 6 4.30 26 25 125.7 120 60 21 29 114 4.30
Ryan Pressly R 33 5 2 2.70 59 0 56.7 45 17 6 14 73 2.77
Cristian Javier R 25 3 2 4.00 36 9 96.7 72 43 14 46 128 4.06
Hunter Brown R 23 6 5 4.42 24 19 95.7 89 47 13 46 100 4.46
Shawn Dubin R 26 5 4 3.95 19 12 66.0 56 29 8 32 76 4.09
Peter Solomon R 25 5 4 4.54 25 17 103.0 98 52 16 44 101 4.64
Jonathan Bermudez L 26 6 5 4.69 25 20 96.0 93 50 17 43 103 4.81
Héctor Neris R 33 6 4 3.68 68 0 66.0 52 27 10 27 88 3.89
Phil Maton R 29 3 2 3.92 62 1 64.3 56 28 8 28 73 4.02
Jose Bravo R 25 5 5 4.69 20 8 71.0 75 37 11 23 59 4.67
Bryan Abreu R 25 4 3 4.32 43 5 66.7 57 32 7 45 78 4.46
Brandon Bielak R 26 6 6 4.72 30 11 82.0 81 43 13 36 78 4.84
Jimmy Endersby R 24 7 7 5.00 25 18 95.3 96 53 13 52 81 5.05
Josh James R 29 3 2 4.30 31 6 52.3 43 25 8 31 70 4.44
Hector Velazquez R 33 2 2 4.37 29 5 47.3 47 23 6 21 40 4.66
Austin Hansen R 25 3 3 4.85 16 10 52.0 47 28 6 38 53 5.01
J.P. France R 27 6 6 5.17 25 18 101.0 100 58 19 51 97 5.40
Parker Mushinski L 26 2 2 4.93 23 11 65.7 64 36 10 34 61 5.04
Rafael Montero R 31 4 3 4.00 40 0 45.0 44 20 6 14 43 4.14
Tyler Ivey R 26 2 2 4.96 14 11 52.7 52 29 9 24 50 5.04
Ryne Stanek R 30 4 3 4.23 67 0 66.0 52 31 11 34 86 4.38
Jojanse Torres R 26 4 4 4.91 16 8 51.3 48 28 6 35 49 5.01
Seth Martinez R 27 5 4 4.28 41 0 61.0 57 29 9 23 65 4.25
Pedro Báez R 34 3 2 4.10 40 0 37.3 33 17 5 15 36 4.28
Chad Donato R 27 6 6 5.24 20 13 79.0 84 46 15 31 65 5.37
Jon Olczak R 28 3 3 4.24 37 0 46.7 46 22 7 16 43 4.51
Brett Conine R 25 6 6 5.33 25 17 99.7 105 59 18 40 78 5.32
Jaime Melendez R 20 5 5 5.20 21 11 64.0 65 37 12 32 59 5.41
Blake Taylor L 26 4 4 4.69 49 3 55.7 51 29 7 34 53 4.85
Angel Macuare R 22 5 5 5.31 18 11 61.0 63 36 9 35 51 5.34
Joe Record R 27 4 4 5.11 23 6 56.3 59 32 8 29 44 5.17
Cole McDonald R 25 1 1 5.02 6 4 14.3 13 8 2 11 15 5.20
Ronel Blanco R 28 4 4 4.63 39 0 44.7 41 23 7 22 48 4.68
Blair Henley R 25 1 1 5.61 5 3 25.7 28 16 4 14 19 5.60
Enoli Paredes R 26 3 3 5.11 38 4 56.3 50 32 9 39 65 5.19
Nick Hernandez R 27 2 2 4.94 32 1 47.3 45 26 7 28 48 4.98
Layne Henderson R 26 4 4 4.81 29 0 48.7 46 26 7 30 48 5.11
Andre Scrubb R 27 2 2 4.96 38 1 45.3 41 25 6 32 48 5.03
Michael Kelly R 29 4 4 5.04 39 1 50.0 47 28 7 30 51 4.94
Michael Horrell R 25 1 1 5.01 31 0 50.3 54 28 7 25 35 5.21
Tyler Brown R 23 5 7 5.71 23 15 88.3 93 56 16 53 74 5.86
Kit Scheetz L 28 2 2 5.17 37 1 54.0 56 31 9 26 45 5.29
Devin Conn R 25 3 3 5.05 36 0 51.7 51 29 7 33 44 5.33
Ruben Garcia R 25 2 2 5.06 37 0 53.3 53 30 7 32 46 5.13
Colin McKee R 28 4 4 5.29 35 1 47.7 44 28 9 31 55 5.40
Riley Ferrell R 28 2 2 5.35 36 0 37.0 35 22 7 25 40 5.59
Jonathan Sprinkle R 23 2 3 5.27 32 0 42.7 40 25 8 26 50 5.24
Willy Collado R 24 2 2 5.84 14 0 24.7 27 16 6 13 22 6.26
R.J. Freure R 24 4 6 5.90 23 13 79.3 82 52 15 54 74 5.97
Forrest Whitley R 24 4 5 6.33 17 15 54.0 51 38 13 46 66 6.53
Carson LaRue R 26 4 6 6.37 17 12 70.7 81 50 17 32 53 6.34

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Justin Verlander 11.1 1.8 1.7 5.0% 31.3% .254 128 78 3.3 Don Sutton
Lance McCullers Jr. 10.1 4.0 0.9 10.5% 26.2% .284 121 83 3.0 Jim Maloney
Zack Greinke 7.3 1.9 1.3 5.1% 19.7% .278 108 92 2.6 Gaylord Perry
Luis Garcia 9.8 3.0 1.3 7.9% 26.0% .291 111 90 2.5 Pedro Astacio
Framber Valdez 8.5 3.9 0.9 9.9% 21.7% .288 108 92 2.1 Bob Kuzava
Jake Odorizzi 8.8 2.9 1.4 7.6% 23.1% .285 103 97 1.7 Bartolo Colon
José Urquidy 8.2 2.1 1.5 5.6% 21.9% .280 101 99 1.6 Dennis Eckersley
Ryan Pressly 11.6 2.2 1.0 6.2% 32.2% .293 161 62 1.5 Mariano Rivera
Cristian Javier 11.9 4.3 1.3 11.2% 31.3% .271 108 92 1.4 Carlos Marmol
Hunter Brown 9.4 4.3 1.2 10.9% 23.8% .296 98 102 1.1 Jason Schmidt
Shawn Dubin 10.4 4.4 1.1 11.2% 26.6% .289 110 91 1.1 Juan Cruz
Peter Solomon 8.8 3.8 1.4 9.8% 22.5% .290 95 105 1.0 Jason Marquis
Jonathan Bermudez 9.7 4.0 1.6 10.2% 24.4% .298 93 108 0.9 Ken Dayley
Héctor Neris 12.0 3.7 1.4 9.7% 31.8% .284 118 85 0.8 Eric Plunk
Phil Maton 10.2 3.9 1.1 10.1% 26.4% .293 111 90 0.5 Bert Roberge
Jose Bravo 7.5 2.9 1.4 7.4% 19.0% .300 92 108 0.5 Matt Schwager
Bryan Abreu 10.5 6.1 0.9 14.9% 25.7% .298 100 100 0.5 Lee Smith
Brandon Bielak 8.6 4.0 1.4 9.9% 21.5% .296 92 109 0.5 Marc Wilkins
Jimmy Endersby 7.6 4.9 1.2 12.0% 18.8% .295 87 115 0.5 Felix Tejeda
Josh James 12.0 5.3 1.4 13.4% 30.3% .294 101 99 0.5 Mark Clear
Hector Velazquez 7.6 4.0 1.1 10.0% 19.0% .293 99 101 0.4 Kevin Gryboski
Austin Hansen 9.2 6.6 1.0 15.8% 22.1% .293 89 112 0.3 John Pacella
J.P. France 8.6 4.5 1.7 11.3% 21.4% .289 84 119 0.3 Michael Tejera
Parker Mushinski 8.4 4.7 1.4 11.6% 20.7% .292 88 114 0.3 Jeff Fassero
Rafael Montero 8.6 2.8 1.2 7.3% 22.3% .299 108 92 0.3 Danny Patterson
Tyler Ivey 8.5 4.1 1.5 10.3% 21.5% .293 87 114 0.3 Bobby Thigpen
Ryne Stanek 11.7 4.6 1.5 12.1% 30.5% .275 103 97 0.3 Ugueth Urbina
Jojanse Torres 8.6 6.1 1.1 14.8% 20.8% .294 88 113 0.3 Whitey Moore
Seth Martinez 9.6 3.4 1.3 8.8% 24.8% .296 101 99 0.2 Craig Dingman
Pedro Báez 8.7 3.6 1.2 9.5% 22.8% .277 106 95 0.2 Donne Wall
Chad Donato 7.4 3.5 1.7 8.8% 18.5% .294 83 121 0.2 Tim Hamm
Jon Olczak 8.3 3.1 1.4 7.9% 21.3% .293 102 98 0.2 Rusty Meacham
Brett Conine 7.0 3.6 1.6 9.1% 17.7% .290 81 123 0.2 Scott Klingenbeck
Jaime Melendez 8.3 4.5 1.7 11.1% 20.6% .293 83 120 0.1 Orlando Lind
Blake Taylor 8.6 5.5 1.1 13.6% 21.2% .286 92 108 0.1 Scott Wiggins
Angel Macuare 7.5 5.2 1.3 12.5% 18.1% .297 82 122 0.1 Mike Lumley
Joe Record 7.0 4.6 1.3 11.3% 17.2% .297 85 118 0.1 William Vaughan
Cole McDonald 9.4 6.9 1.3 16.7% 22.7% .289 86 116 0.1 Jean Machi
Ronel Blanco 9.7 4.4 1.4 11.2% 24.5% .291 94 107 0.0 Rich Loiselle
Blair Henley 6.7 4.9 1.4 11.8% 16.0% .300 77 129 0.0 Fernando Rodney
Enoli Paredes 10.4 6.2 1.4 15.2% 25.3% .291 85 118 -0.1 Bart Miadich
Nick Hernandez 9.1 5.3 1.3 13.1% 22.4% .295 88 114 -0.1 Regular Bob Gibson
Layne Henderson 8.9 5.5 1.3 13.5% 21.6% .291 90 111 -0.1 Brian Bowles
Andre Scrubb 9.5 6.4 1.2 15.4% 23.1% .292 87 114 -0.1 Franklyn German
Michael Kelly 9.2 5.4 1.3 13.2% 22.5% .294 86 116 -0.2 Mike MacDougal
Michael Horrell 6.3 4.5 1.3 11.0% 15.4% .296 87 115 -0.2 Casey Daigle
Tyler Brown 7.5 5.4 1.6 12.9% 18.0% .294 76 132 -0.2 Aaron France
Kit Scheetz 7.5 4.3 1.5 10.7% 18.5% .294 84 119 -0.3 Mike Munoz
Devin Conn 7.7 5.7 1.2 13.9% 18.5% .291 86 117 -0.3 Heathcliff Slocumb
Ruben Garcia 7.8 5.4 1.2 13.1% 18.9% .295 84 119 -0.3 Daniel Foli
Colin McKee 10.4 5.9 1.7 14.3% 25.3% .292 82 122 -0.3 Henry Owens
Riley Ferrell 9.7 6.1 1.7 14.7% 23.5% .289 81 123 -0.3 Doug Robertson
Jonathan Sprinkle 10.5 5.5 1.7 13.5% 25.9% .299 82 122 -0.3 Lariel Gonzalez
Willy Collado 8.0 4.7 2.2 11.5% 19.5% .296 74 135 -0.3 Mark Pedersen
R.J. Freure 8.4 6.1 1.7 14.5% 19.9% .298 74 136 -0.4 Justin Dunning
Forrest Whitley 11.0 7.7 2.2 17.8% 25.6% .290 68 146 -0.5 Oscar Munoz
Carson LaRue 6.8 4.1 2.2 9.9% 16.4% .294 68 147 -0.7 Mike Redding

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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mariodegenzgz
9 months ago

You never know what to expect from an alien like JV. Because he’s JV, half of me expects him to pitch effectively until he’s 45 and retire with 301 wins or something crazy like that. I think he ends up around 250 and his shot at 300 ended with him losing two full seasons of the back end of his second prime, but still.