2022 ZiPS Projections: New York Mets

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets.

Batters

It feels a little weird to be optimistic about the Mets after the season they just had (or perhaps because the Mets are one of the world’s most powerful pessimism-inducing entities). But when I look at the offense, there’s just not that much to complain about. None of Starling Marte, Mark Canha, or Eduardo Escobar are superstars — though Marte comes close at times — but signing that trio really improved how the lineup looks going into 2022. The team has a credible backup at most positions and even some upper minors depth (Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and, if you believe Steamer rather than ZiPS, Khalil Lee) they can use if the need arises.

Catcher projects as the team’s biggest weakness. The Mets put a lot of faith in a season’s worth of at-bats from James McCann in 2019 and ’20 when they committed to a four-year deal with a catcher who was already 30 years old. Given McCann’s .232/.294/.349, 0.5 WAR line in 2021, it’s hard to say they were well-rewarded for their belief. But on the positive side, even if it doesn’t come into play in 2022, ZiPS thinks that Francisco Álvarez’s bat will develop quickly enough to give the Mets a better option before McCann’s contract is done.

It’s highly likely that Michael Conforto has taken his last at-bat as a Met, though I’m not even sure he’s a great fit for the team where they are right now. While I’ve always been a fan, I have to admit that an injury-laden and generally lousy 2021 makes him a much bigger risk than he was a year ago, and that’s a problem for a contending team. While another lefty in the starting lineup would be welcome, it seems unlikely the Mets signed Canha to then immediately re-sign Conforto to take his job back.

Overall, this is likely to be an above-average lineup with solid depth behind it.

Pitchers

I’m confident about the Mets’ lineup, but I’m less sure here. Not because of the quality of the pitchers, mind you, but rather their health. We currently have the rotation as the best in baseball in our depth charts, but I happen to think the playing time scenarios are more optimistic than I would be. Given the state of Jacob deGrom‘s arm and Carlos Carrasco’s health record (plus a bone fragment removal procedure), I think the Mets will be quite fortunate to get 296 innings out of the pair. And while you’re likely risking your own health and well-being if you suggest this to him, Max Scherzer has looked exhausted at the end of both his recent full seasons, and he’s at an age where decline is a serious concern.

Luckily, the wheels won’t come off completely in the event of injury. David Peterson is a practical fill-in candidate, and Trevor Williams is still hanging around on the edge of the roster to absorb the occasional start. ZiPS doesn’t see much in the way of depth in the high minors to fill in here, but Seth Lugo is still around as a “break glass in case of Mets” option. I wouldn’t mind some additional NRIs to fatten the Triple-A rotation here.

ZiPS does think that the Mets should be searching for another handful of relievers after the new CBA is agreed to. While the projections are solid, they’re also rather top-heavy; a lot of this is Edwin Díaz. Behind Díaz, Lugo, Trevor May, and Miguel Castro all boast solid projections, but once you get past Castro, there’s a whole missing tier of quality, as you drop down about 15 points of ERA+ to the relievers right around replacement level. Williams will eat some mop-up innings in all likelihood, but the team needs to address the back end of this bullpen.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Francisco Lindor B 28 SS 586 518 87 136 27 2 25 74 55 102 16 6
Pete Alonso R 27 1B 644 560 86 145 26 2 41 110 65 150 2 0
Eduardo Escobar B 33 3B 582 531 71 131 25 5 27 84 45 128 1 1
Jeff McNeil L 30 2B 506 458 62 129 26 2 12 52 34 66 5 2
Brandon Nimmo L 29 CF 413 342 53 88 18 4 11 34 59 91 5 4
Starling Marte R 33 CF 548 498 78 136 26 3 14 57 32 102 31 7
Michael Conforto L 29 RF 536 457 66 115 23 1 19 72 66 122 3 2
Mark Canha R 33 LF 531 443 76 105 20 3 18 60 64 120 7 2
Jonathan Villar B 31 3B 570 514 69 126 19 2 17 51 49 147 23 8
Mark Payton L 30 CF 379 344 42 86 17 2 11 38 28 79 5 3
Brett Baty L 22 3B 409 370 54 84 16 1 12 47 32 113 4 2
J.D. Davis R 29 3B 371 328 41 86 17 1 12 40 35 95 2 0
Francisco Álvarez R 20 C 401 356 50 80 13 1 21 63 32 109 4 3
Luis Guillorme L 27 3B 277 238 28 61 10 0 4 18 33 48 2 2
Kevin Pillar R 33 CF 473 446 57 111 24 3 15 62 15 90 8 4
Wilfredo Tovar R 30 SS 420 387 47 92 15 2 6 36 26 63 6 4
Matt Reynolds R 31 SS 383 337 46 76 18 2 5 28 37 104 4 2
James McCann R 32 C 420 386 37 91 16 1 11 48 28 119 2 2
Mark Vientos R 22 3B 406 374 42 85 16 1 18 54 24 121 0 3
Ronny Mauricio B 21 SS 501 474 51 105 17 3 18 57 22 131 8 6
César Puello R 31 RF 247 214 28 50 7 0 5 25 19 62 5 1
Robinson Canó L 39 2B 285 265 29 69 15 0 8 31 15 47 0 0
David Rodríguez R 26 C 253 232 24 50 9 1 6 22 18 71 2 0
Nick Dini R 28 C 220 199 27 46 9 0 8 24 13 48 4 1
Brandon Drury R 29 3B 375 346 37 78 17 1 11 40 24 90 0 0
Dominic Smith L 27 LF 465 424 50 108 25 1 13 62 30 109 2 1
Daniel Palka L 30 RF 460 411 55 91 17 1 18 56 45 121 3 1
Tomás Nido R 28 C 193 183 18 40 8 1 4 19 7 52 1 0
Travis Blankenhorn L 25 2B 385 357 40 81 16 1 12 39 23 114 5 2
Nick Conti R 25 2B 135 117 13 23 4 1 3 10 14 37 2 1
Hayden Senger R 25 C 292 264 21 53 12 1 5 17 17 85 0 0
Chance Sisco L 27 C 317 276 34 59 11 0 9 31 29 93 0 0
Jake Mangum B 26 CF 348 321 39 75 12 2 6 30 16 73 10 4
Jose Colina B 24 C 136 125 15 23 4 0 4 13 9 47 0 0
Martin Cervenka R 29 C 237 215 21 41 7 0 6 20 16 69 1 0
Sebastián Elizalde L 30 LF 121 110 14 24 5 0 2 10 10 22 4 1
Cheslor Cuthbert R 29 1B 424 389 42 88 17 1 13 49 30 92 1 1
Mason Williams L 30 LF 396 364 44 89 12 2 10 37 26 90 5 4
Drew Ferguson R 29 LF 349 305 41 65 11 2 6 27 36 95 14 4
Patrick Mazeika L 28 C 347 313 36 68 14 0 9 36 23 69 0 0
Albert Almora Jr. R 28 CF 312 289 32 65 11 1 7 24 16 60 2 3
Khalil Lee L 24 RF 468 406 50 83 17 2 11 36 47 165 15 9
Antoine Duplantis L 25 CF 442 413 42 88 13 2 7 29 24 99 5 4
Cody Bohanek R 26 SS 382 334 34 56 10 1 8 25 32 130 9 5
David Thompson R 28 1B 338 307 35 60 13 1 9 33 21 99 9 2
Nic Gaddis R 25 C 180 160 19 28 4 1 5 17 14 50 1 1
José Martínez R 33 RF 286 259 30 60 9 1 6 27 25 68 2 0
Nick Meyer R 25 C 250 229 23 47 7 1 4 15 15 58 6 3
Josh Reddick L 35 RF 372 342 38 80 13 1 8 35 25 68 2 1
Cameron Maybin R 35 LF 245 219 27 48 10 0 5 20 23 67 6 3
Carlos Cortes L 25 LF 426 384 46 80 16 2 11 44 32 108 2 3
LT Struble L 25 RF 97 88 11 15 2 0 1 6 9 36 2 1
Nick Plummer L 25 LF 446 382 50 71 15 3 10 35 50 158 7 5
Matt Winaker L 26 1B 310 272 30 51 9 3 5 21 27 83 2 2
Wagner Lagrange R 26 RF 361 334 37 75 14 2 7 32 18 83 2 2
Jeremy Vasquez L 25 1B 450 403 46 87 17 2 7 38 38 108 1 2
Quinn Brodey L 26 RF 383 348 35 65 13 2 7 30 25 131 10 3
Carlos Rincon R 24 RF 446 408 47 81 17 0 15 45 31 146 4 0

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Francisco Lindor .263 .337 .467 119 .205 .284 5.8 7 4.7 Toby Harrah
Pete Alonso .259 .349 .532 138 .273 .282 6.8 0 4.4 Justin Morneau
Eduardo Escobar .247 .306 .465 108 .218 .277 5.1 1 2.9 Scott Spiezio
Jeff McNeil .282 .346 .426 111 .144 .308 5.6 0 2.9 Jeff Treadway
Brandon Nimmo .257 .381 .430 123 .173 .321 5.9 -1 2.8 Sandy Amoros
Starling Marte .273 .333 .422 106 .149 .319 5.6 -2 2.8 Jim Piersall
Michael Conforto .252 .356 .431 116 .179 .304 5.5 0 2.5 Paul O’Neill
Mark Canha .237 .356 .418 113 .181 .285 5.3 -4 2.1 Al Smith
Jonathan Villar .245 .313 .389 92 .144 .311 4.5 -3 1.6 U L Washington
Mark Payton .250 .308 .407 95 .157 .295 4.5 3 1.5 Armando Rios
Brett Baty .227 .292 .373 82 .146 .294 3.8 6 1.3 Scott Hodges
J.D. Davis .262 .342 .430 111 .168 .335 5.5 -8 1.3 Tim Naehring
Francisco Álvarez .225 .295 .444 100 .219 .261 4.5 -7 1.2 Eli Marrero
Luis Guillorme .256 .347 .349 93 .092 .306 4.3 1 1.0 Al Gallagher
Kevin Pillar .249 .283 .417 90 .168 .282 4.2 -2 1.0 Gerald Williams
Wilfredo Tovar .238 .287 .333 71 .096 .270 3.3 6 0.9 Luis Figueroa
Matt Reynolds .226 .305 .335 77 .110 .311 3.6 2 0.9 Bobby Scales
James McCann .236 .293 .368 81 .132 .313 3.8 -1 0.8 Terry Kennedy
Mark Vientos .227 .277 .420 88 .193 .285 3.9 0 0.8 Jamie D’Antona
Ronny Mauricio .222 .260 .384 74 .162 .268 3.4 3 0.8 Josh Wilson
César Puello .234 .327 .336 84 .103 .306 4.0 4 0.7 Jason Michaels
Robinson Canó .260 .305 .408 94 .147 .290 4.5 -2 0.6 Lou Whitaker
David Rodríguez .216 .277 .341 69 .125 .284 3.3 2 0.5 David Duff
Nick Dini .231 .289 .397 87 .166 .266 4.1 -2 0.5 Jim Horner
Brandon Drury .225 .278 .376 78 .150 .273 3.6 1 0.5 Josh Klimek
Dominic Smith .255 .312 .410 97 .156 .315 4.6 -6 0.4 John Mabry
Daniel Palka .221 .298 .399 90 .178 .268 4.2 -2 0.4 Pat Brady
Tomás Nido .219 .254 .339 62 .120 .283 3.0 3 0.2 Angelo Encarnacion
Travis Blankenhorn .227 .279 .378 79 .151 .299 3.7 -3 0.2 Jimmy Bloodworth
Nick Conti .197 .291 .325 70 .128 .260 3.2 1 0.2 James Guerrero
Hayden Senger .201 .268 .311 59 .110 .276 2.8 2 0.2 Matt Pagnozzi
Chance Sisco .214 .312 .351 83 .138 .287 3.8 -8 0.2 Dusty Brown
Jake Mangum .234 .283 .340 71 .106 .285 3.5 -1 0.1 Ed Yacopino
Jose Colina .184 .250 .312 54 .128 .257 2.6 1 0.0 Alan Probst
Martin Cervenka .191 .250 .307 53 .116 .250 2.6 2 -0.1 Tom Nieto
Sebastián Elizalde .218 .289 .318 68 .100 .256 3.4 0 -0.1 Quinn Mack
Cheslor Cuthbert .226 .288 .375 81 .149 .264 3.7 0 -0.1 Mike Bell
Mason Williams .245 .295 .371 82 .126 .299 3.8 -2 -0.1 Jalal Leach
Drew Ferguson .213 .307 .321 74 .108 .289 3.6 -1 -0.2 Adam Shabala
Patrick Mazeika .217 .278 .348 71 .131 .251 3.3 -6 -0.2 Alberto Castillo
Albert Almora Jr. .225 .269 .343 67 .118 .261 3.1 0 -0.2 Jeff Barry
Khalil Lee .204 .306 .337 78 .133 .313 3.4 -3 -0.3 Ken Smith
Antoine Duplantis .213 .259 .305 55 .092 .264 2.6 5 -0.4 Brennan Boesch
Cody Bohanek .168 .261 .275 48 .108 .245 2.3 3 -0.4 Gil Velazquez
David Thompson .195 .263 .332 63 .137 .256 3.1 3 -0.4 Lou List
Nic Gaddis .175 .253 .306 53 .131 .219 2.5 -3 -0.5 Jon Aceves
José Martínez .232 .301 .344 77 .112 .292 3.7 -5 -0.5 Armando Rios
Nick Meyer .205 .262 .297 54 .092 .257 2.6 -3 -0.5 Chris Stewart
Josh Reddick .234 .283 .348 73 .114 .271 3.5 -1 -0.5 Bill Stein
Cameron Maybin .219 .298 .333 74 .114 .293 3.4 -4 -0.5 Shane Spencer
Carlos Cortes .208 .272 .346 69 .138 .260 3.1 1 -0.6 Rafael Alvarez
LT Struble .170 .247 .227 33 .057 .275 1.8 -1 -0.7 Amaurys Nina
Nick Plummer .186 .297 .319 70 .134 .285 3.1 -4 -0.8 Ty Griffin
Matt Winaker .188 .278 .298 59 .110 .250 2.7 0 -0.9 Troy Gingrich
Wagner Lagrange .225 .268 .341 67 .117 .279 3.1 -2 -0.9 Todd Landry
Jeremy Vasquez .216 .286 .320 67 .104 .278 3.1 0 -0.9 Scott Hatteberg
Quinn Brodey .187 .245 .296 48 .109 .276 2.5 1 -1.3 Randy Rigsby
Carlos Rincon .199 .261 .350 67 .152 .267 3.2 -11 -1.7 Chad Whitaker

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Jacob deGrom R 34 9 3 2.28 22 22 130.0 87 33 12 29 183 2.30
Max Scherzer R 37 12 7 3.08 28 28 169.3 128 58 24 43 231 3.20
Joey Lucchesi L 29 7 6 3.92 21 20 101.0 92 44 13 34 103 3.91
Edwin Díaz R 28 6 3 2.76 64 0 62.0 43 19 7 24 98 2.94
Seth Lugo R 32 6 5 3.80 35 12 92.3 80 39 15 24 105 3.96
Tylor Megill R 26 6 7 4.34 26 24 118.3 112 57 20 43 131 4.38
Taijuan Walker R 29 8 8 4.43 26 25 132.0 124 65 21 47 127 4.51
Carlos Carrasco R 35 6 5 4.00 17 15 81.0 77 36 12 23 86 3.91
Trevor Williams R 30 6 6 4.42 26 21 118.0 119 58 19 36 105 4.54
David Peterson L 26 5 5 4.23 19 19 89.3 84 42 11 36 81 4.34
Trevor May R 32 5 4 3.57 62 0 58.0 47 23 8 23 78 3.52
Miguel Castro R 27 4 3 3.86 69 1 72.3 57 31 7 42 87 3.94
Brad Hand L 32 6 5 3.79 63 0 59.3 51 25 8 23 68 4.11
Josh Walker L 27 5 7 4.81 19 18 95.3 101 51 14 31 71 4.73
Alex Valverde R 25 4 4 4.46 31 8 70.7 68 35 9 32 64 4.55
Justin Lasko R 25 7 9 4.84 21 16 93.0 101 50 14 31 66 4.88
Rob Zastryzny L 30 3 3 4.52 24 7 63.7 64 32 9 26 59 4.53
Jose Rodriguez R 26 6 7 4.91 25 19 95.3 98 52 16 35 78 4.95
Sean Reid-Foley R 26 5 6 4.80 28 15 90.0 80 48 14 55 105 4.84
Adam Oller R 27 5 7 5.03 22 20 102.0 105 57 17 44 91 5.03
Jose Butto R 24 5 6 5.03 22 21 96.7 103 54 16 33 76 4.94
Antonio Santos R 25 4 5 4.74 36 10 87.3 90 46 13 32 68 4.83
Robert Stock R 32 2 3 4.60 25 6 45.0 42 23 6 24 47 4.62
Robert Gsellman R 28 2 2 4.47 37 3 50.3 51 25 7 18 40 4.71
Dellin Betances R 34 2 2 4.08 31 0 28.7 23 13 4 17 37 4.51
Corey Oswalt R 28 4 5 5.08 18 13 67.3 71 38 14 20 60 5.13
Drew Smith R 28 2 2 4.32 34 1 41.7 38 20 7 16 44 4.55
Eric Orze R 24 3 3 4.22 36 0 49.0 48 23 7 18 46 4.45
Nate Fisher L 26 1 1 4.66 19 3 36.7 39 19 5 13 28 4.65
Brian Metoyer R 25 3 2 4.18 23 0 32.3 28 15 3 19 37 4.05
Willy Taveras R 24 4 4 4.63 33 3 58.3 62 30 9 17 45 4.67
Alec Kisena R 26 5 7 5.14 23 15 84.0 87 48 12 43 71 5.03
Mitch Ragan R 25 4 4 4.46 25 1 38.3 40 19 5 14 28 4.67
Andrew Mitchell L 27 2 2 4.35 25 0 39.3 37 19 5 16 38 4.35
Jake Reed R 29 2 2 4.50 38 1 50.0 48 25 8 21 52 4.56
Roel Ramírez R 27 2 3 4.50 38 1 54.0 51 27 7 26 54 4.48
Bryce Montes de Oca R 26 2 2 4.41 29 0 34.7 31 17 4 19 37 4.36
Heath Hembree R 33 3 4 4.41 55 0 51.0 43 25 10 22 68 4.47
Arodys Vizcaíno R 31 1 1 4.50 20 0 18.0 16 9 3 9 21 4.68
Bradley Roney R 29 2 3 4.43 34 0 42.7 37 21 6 23 49 4.47
Jesús Reyes R 29 5 7 5.19 28 16 102.3 105 59 15 55 85 5.21
Stephen Tarpley L 29 3 3 4.61 30 1 41.0 39 21 5 24 43 4.64
Stephen Nogosek R 27 3 3 4.73 36 2 45.7 42 24 7 23 53 4.49
Kevin Gadea R 27 1 2 4.58 29 0 39.3 36 20 5 23 41 4.65
Colin Holderman R 26 1 2 5.35 16 7 37.0 39 22 5 21 29 5.23
Marcel Rentería R 27 2 3 4.93 23 2 45.7 44 25 7 25 43 5.13
Zack Godley R 32 6 8 5.33 24 18 99.7 105 59 17 48 87 5.28
Yeizo Campos R 26 2 2 4.92 30 3 56.7 59 31 9 22 44 5.02
Franklyn Kilome R 27 3 4 5.32 21 10 64.3 65 38 9 39 55 5.25
Jordan Yamamoto R 26 4 6 5.42 20 18 81.3 81 49 16 37 71 5.54
Oscar De La Cruz R 27 4 5 5.35 22 12 74.0 79 44 13 35 60 5.42
Cole Gordon R 26 3 4 5.43 21 12 68.0 69 41 12 37 60 5.52
Josh Hejka R 25 1 2 4.68 33 0 57.7 64 30 8 18 36 4.83
Justin Dillon R 28 4 5 5.42 20 12 74.7 82 45 14 28 53 5.48
Tom Hackimer R 28 2 2 4.80 34 0 45.0 43 24 6 25 45 4.71
Connor Grey R 28 4 5 5.48 17 11 69.0 76 42 14 27 53 5.63
Thomas Szapucki L 26 2 2 5.66 14 11 49.3 50 31 9 28 47 5.47
Andrew Edwards L 25 2 3 5.23 23 0 31.0 31 18 4 20 28 5.18
Ryley Gilliam R 25 3 3 5.18 23 0 33.0 34 19 5 16 29 5.03
Tony Dibrell R 26 5 7 5.60 18 16 80.3 83 50 13 50 67 5.67
Yennsy Díaz R 25 4 7 5.42 32 10 79.7 83 48 15 40 66 5.63
Troy Miller R 25 3 6 5.93 14 13 60.7 67 40 11 36 43 6.10
Tom Windle L 30 3 4 5.61 32 0 33.7 34 21 6 24 30 6.03
Vance Worley R 34 3 6 6.04 14 13 76.0 94 51 15 27 35 6.05
Akeem Bostick R 27 2 4 6.11 20 10 66.3 73 45 15 33 54 6.12
Alex Sanabia R 33 3 5 6.47 14 12 57.0 69 41 13 25 33 6.46
Trey Cobb R 28 2 3 6.06 29 1 49.0 57 33 11 19 34 6.00

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Jacob deGrom 12.7 2.0 0.8 5.8% 36.5% .273 180 56 4.5 Tom Seaver
Max Scherzer 12.3 2.3 1.3 6.3% 34.1% .280 134 75 3.9 Curt Schilling
Joey Lucchesi 9.2 3.0 1.2 8.0% 24.2% .290 105 95 1.6 Bob Knepper
Edwin Díaz 14.2 3.5 1.0 9.4% 38.3% .298 149 67 1.5 Rob Dibble
Seth Lugo 10.2 2.3 1.5 6.3% 27.6% .281 108 92 1.4 Dennis Eckersley
Tylor Megill 10.0 3.3 1.5 8.5% 25.8% .299 95 105 1.3 Pascual Perez
Taijuan Walker 8.7 3.2 1.4 8.3% 22.6% .284 93 108 1.3 Pete Smith
Carlos Carrasco 9.6 2.6 1.3 6.8% 25.3% .300 103 97 1.2 Esteban Loaiza
Trevor Williams 8.0 2.7 1.4 7.1% 20.8% .293 93 107 1.1 Donne Wall
David Peterson 8.2 3.6 1.1 9.3% 20.9% .287 97 103 1.1 Ken Kravec
Trevor May 12.1 3.6 1.2 9.5% 32.2% .295 115 87 0.6 Kiko Calero
Miguel Castro 10.8 5.2 0.9 13.3% 27.5% .284 107 94 0.5 Bobby Castillo
Brad Hand 10.3 3.5 1.2 9.1% 26.8% .289 109 92 0.5 Jim Brewer
Josh Walker 6.7 2.9 1.3 7.5% 17.1% .295 85 117 0.5 Lee Guetterman
Alex Valverde 8.2 4.1 1.1 10.3% 20.6% .292 92 108 0.4 Eulogio Delacruz
Justin Lasko 6.4 3.0 1.4 7.6% 16.1% .297 85 118 0.4 Nate Cornejo
Rob Zastryzny 8.3 3.7 1.3 9.3% 21.1% .301 91 110 0.4 Will Brunson
Jose Rodriguez 7.4 3.3 1.5 8.4% 18.8% .290 84 119 0.4 John Hope
Sean Reid-Foley 10.5 5.5 1.4 13.6% 26.1% .293 86 117 0.4 Paul Abbott
Adam Oller 8.0 3.9 1.5 9.7% 20.0% .297 82 122 0.3 Greg Roscoe
Jose Butto 7.1 3.1 1.5 7.8% 17.9% .296 82 122 0.3 Don Schulze
Antonio Santos 7.0 3.3 1.3 8.4% 17.8% .292 87 115 0.2 Eric Moody
Robert Stock 9.4 4.8 1.2 11.9% 23.4% .298 89 112 0.2 Bryce Florie
Robert Gsellman 7.2 3.2 1.3 8.2% 18.2% .291 92 109 0.1 Jeremy Ward
Dellin Betances 11.6 5.3 1.3 13.4% 29.1% .288 101 99 0.1 Tim Stoddard
Corey Oswalt 8.0 2.7 1.9 6.9% 20.6% .294 81 123 0.1 Ryan Hawblitzel
Drew Smith 9.5 3.5 1.5 9.0% 24.7% .284 95 105 0.1 Cris Carpenter
Eric Orze 8.4 3.3 1.3 8.5% 21.6% .295 97 103 0.1 John Doherty
Nate Fisher 6.9 3.2 1.2 8.1% 17.4% .301 88 113 0.1 Brian Henderson
Brian Metoyer 10.3 5.3 0.8 13.2% 25.7% .301 99 101 0.1 Rafael Pimentel
Willy Taveras 6.9 2.6 1.4 6.7% 17.8% .296 89 112 0.1 Matt Schwager
Alec Kisena 7.6 4.6 1.3 11.3% 18.7% .300 80 125 0.0 Julio Santana
Mitch Ragan 6.6 3.3 1.2 8.3% 16.7% .294 92 108 0.0 Rocky Childress
Andrew Mitchell 8.7 3.7 1.1 9.4% 22.2% .294 95 106 0.0 Dave Rucker
Jake Reed 9.4 3.8 1.4 9.6% 23.9% .296 91 109 0.0 Turk Wendell
Roel Ramírez 9.0 4.3 1.2 10.9% 22.7% .297 91 109 0.0 Jose Vargas
Bryce Montes de Oca 9.6 4.9 1.0 12.3% 24.0% .293 93 107 0.0 Steve Rain
Heath Hembree 12.0 3.9 1.8 10.1% 31.3% .287 93 107 0.0 Rich DeLucia
Arodys Vizcaíno 10.5 4.5 1.5 11.4% 26.6% .289 91 109 0.0 John Hudek
Bradley Roney 10.3 4.9 1.3 12.3% 26.2% .290 93 108 0.0 Tyler Yates
Jesús Reyes 7.5 4.8 1.3 11.8% 18.3% .296 79 126 0.0 Steve Green
Stephen Tarpley 9.4 5.3 1.1 12.9% 23.1% .306 89 112 0.0 Bobby Sprowl
Stephen Nogosek 10.4 4.5 1.4 11.4% 26.4% .302 87 115 -0.1 Mark Corey
Kevin Gadea 9.4 5.3 1.1 13.1% 23.3% .295 90 111 -0.1 Santiago Ramirez
Colin Holderman 7.1 5.1 1.2 12.4% 17.1% .301 77 130 -0.1 Ricky Steik
Marcel Rentería 8.5 4.9 1.4 12.1% 20.9% .289 84 120 -0.1 Ryan Baker
Zack Godley 7.9 4.3 1.5 10.6% 19.3% .300 77 129 -0.1 Alan Benes
Yeizo Campos 7.0 3.5 1.4 8.8% 17.6% .291 84 120 -0.1 Arty Santos
Franklyn Kilome 7.7 5.5 1.3 13.2% 18.6% .296 77 129 -0.1 Dan Kolb
Jordan Yamamoto 7.9 4.1 1.8 10.2% 19.7% .280 76 132 -0.2 Dave Swartzbaugh
Oscar De La Cruz 7.3 4.3 1.6 10.5% 18.0% .297 77 130 -0.2 Nick Masset
Cole Gordon 7.9 4.9 1.6 12.0% 19.4% .291 76 132 -0.2 Craig Weissmann
Josh Hejka 5.6 2.8 1.2 7.1% 14.2% .298 88 114 -0.2 Brian Allen
Justin Dillon 6.4 3.4 1.7 8.4% 16.0% .292 76 132 -0.2 Jed Murray
Tom Hackimer 9.0 5.0 1.2 12.4% 22.3% .298 86 117 -0.2 Ryan Houston
Connor Grey 6.9 3.5 1.8 8.7% 17.2% .294 75 133 -0.2 Jed Murray
Thomas Szapucki 8.6 5.1 1.6 12.4% 20.9% .295 73 137 -0.3 John Bale
Andrew Edwards 8.1 5.8 1.2 13.9% 19.4% .300 79 127 -0.3 Mike Venafro
Ryley Gilliam 7.9 4.4 1.4 10.7% 19.5% .299 79 126 -0.3 Chris Demouy
Tony Dibrell 7.5 5.6 1.5 13.4% 18.0% .294 73 136 -0.3 Elvin Nina
Yennsy Díaz 7.5 4.5 1.7 11.1% 18.3% .289 76 132 -0.4 Dennis Konuszewski
Troy Miller 6.4 5.3 1.6 12.7% 15.1% .295 69 144 -0.5 Jon Leicester
Tom Windle 8.0 6.4 1.6 15.1% 18.9% .289 73 136 -0.5 Tim Adkins
Vance Worley 4.1 3.2 1.8 7.8% 10.1% .298 68 147 -0.7 Brian Moehler
Akeem Bostick 7.3 4.5 2.0 10.9% 17.8% .293 67 148 -0.8 Pedro Guzman
Alex Sanabia 5.2 3.9 2.1 9.5% 12.5% .296 64 157 -0.8 R.A. Dickey
Trey Cobb 6.2 3.5 2.0 8.6% 15.4% .297 68 147 -0.9 Alan Benes

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

newest oldest most voted
Cave Dameron
Member
Cave Dameron

Thank you Dan, very cool!