2021 ZiPS Projections: Seattle Mariners

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Seattle Mariners.

Batters

Let’s go straight to the projection that will likely get the most grumbling: ZiPS does not think that Kyle Lewis is a budding star. It does like him better than Steamer does — it mostly comes down to ZiPS being more willing to believe he’s a .340 BABIP hitter — but not to the level where he projects as a good starter. He had a legitimately excellent rookie season, but it’ll take more than an abridged 2020 to convince ZiPS that the previous translations, generally in the .230/.270/.370 range, no longer have predictive value. That’s not to say Seattle should be actively seeking to replace or upgrade from Lewis. One of the “benefits” of being a rebuilding team is that you can give players chances to improve or show an improvement is for real, after all. But these projections see the 2020 AL Rookie of the Year race a little like 1992, with the runner-up, Luis Robert, playing Kenny Lofton and Lewis as Pat Listach. Bumping a projection up by 70 points of OPS from the results of a 60-game season remains an accomplishment.

Evan White’s projection is considerably worse than Lewis’, but that should be a less unexpected digital smear. ZiPS has had all the nopes for White’s future for some time and has yet to give him a better-than-replacement projection. The fact that he was quite awful in 2020, hitting .172/.252/.346 in 202 plate appearances with 84 strikeouts, obviously wasn’t going to change the computer’s mind. Going long-term, ZiPS never gives White an above-replacement projection or even much in the way of upside, with a 90th-percentile projection consisting of a rather lackluster .219/.286/.432 line. While Lewis earned an extended chance in 2020, the Mariners should have low standards for how good another offensive prospect has to be in order to displace White.

That Ty France has the best projection on the entire team is an inauspicious sign of Seattle’s divisional probabilities for 2021. But France is interesting, a kind of fringe role player prospect who suddenly went ballistic for Triple-A El Paso in 2019. With the required caveat that Pacific Coast League statistics have to be taken with a giant grain of salt, there’s no professional league in existence where a .399/.477/.770 line isn’t a good one. His debut with the Padres was decidedly meh, but he hit .305/.368/.468 in 2020. I’d rather have France at first than White, but it’s more important that the Mariners use 2021 to try to pin down where he can contribute defensively long-term.

Mitch Haniger’s projection is disappointing, but he’s missed a year and a half due to a series of injuries, including something like four surgeries to deal with a sports hernia and the very negative effects of fouling a baseball off your own groin. There’s certainly a chance he crushes this projection, making it look like a mean joke by midseason, but there’s some real uncertainty here.

On a positive note, Kyle Seager was healthy and showed more refined plate discipline in 2020, boosting his line to the best it’s been in years. He looked a lot like the player who was a legitimate star from 2013 to ’17, though his defense isn’t what it once was. With less defensive value and his age being a significant factor working against him, the Seager Renaissance is unlikely to be long or reach lofty heights, but he’s a legitimate contributor again. If the Mariners eat some money for 2021, they could move him a la Robinson Canó.

Don’t be too disappointed by the pedestrian projections for Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez. Losing 2020 was bad for both players, as Kelenic likely would have had a reasonable chance at starting 2021 in Seattle, and Rodriguez would have gotten a full season above the low minors. Both have outstanding long-term projections, especially Kelenic — there’s still a lot of uncertainty with Rodriguez even if the upside is there — but the future is unlikely to come next year. In terms of rest-of-career projections, Kelenic ranks 10th among centerfielders, between Byron Buxton and Cristian Pache.

Pitchers

ZiPS has long seen Marco Gonzales as a serviceable-though-unsexy mid-rotation starter. He hinted at something more than that in 2020 with his already excellent control reaching god-tier status, dropping his FIP to a career-best 3.32. ZiPS just isn’t convinced the improvements in walk and strikeout rate are for real, at least quite yet. While changes in these stats tend to become “real” fairly quickly, ZiPS also doesn’t see the results as being consistent with Gonzales’ plate discipline numbers: zBB predicted seven more walks than he actually allowed, and zK showed 13 fewer strikeouts; both these discrepancies are among the largest in baseball. As with Lewis, Seattle can simply wait and see what it has.

The rest of the rotation is quite a bit less exciting. If there’s good news, it’s that there are few actually disasters among the pitchers, with most non-Gonzales starters having ERA+ projections in the high-80s and 90s. You could argue the Mariners have as many as 10 starting pitchers in the organization that could hold their own as actual major leaguers in 2021, though not particularly good ones. Giving Chris Flexen another shot in the U.S. after his successful stint with the Doosan Bears of the KBO was a good idea and exactly the kind of thing the M’s should be doing.

The problem is the lack of upside at the major league level. The Mariners have exactly two starting pitchers in Justus Sheffield and Logan Gilbert and two relievers in Andres Muñoz (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and Sam Delaplane with big ZiPS upsides. Hopefully, Seattle will use the offseason to add some more lottery tickets to the 26-man roster, whether it’s imports from overseas, pitchers coming off an injury, or pitchers with more tools than skills.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Ty France R 26 3B 565 508 69 136 26 3 18 74 34 119 1 2
J.P. Crawford L 26 SS 564 493 68 120 21 6 10 58 60 119 9 4
Mitch Haniger R 30 RF 430 379 59 96 22 2 18 57 40 107 5 2
Kyle Seager L 33 3B 539 475 63 117 26 1 20 82 50 96 5 2
Jarred Kelenic L 21 CF 537 490 66 115 22 5 24 75 41 159 14 8
Kyle Lewis R 25 LF 549 491 64 120 19 0 18 62 52 175 6 2
Dylan Moore R 28 SS 442 392 52 86 19 2 14 43 35 121 21 11
Brian O’Keefe R 27 C 377 339 39 72 15 0 11 38 33 105 2 1
Tom Murphy R 30 C 331 308 35 68 14 2 15 44 20 114 2 1
Cal Raleigh B 24 C 483 446 55 96 19 0 23 72 34 142 2 0
Luis Torrens R 25 C 433 394 40 94 21 1 7 38 32 92 0 1
Donovan Walton L 27 SS 481 434 48 99 19 3 8 41 37 94 6 9
José Godoy L 26 C 327 296 31 67 13 0 5 26 22 67 1 1
Shed Long Jr. L 25 2B 471 427 49 94 18 3 12 43 39 137 11 5
Luis Liberato L 25 CF 463 427 46 88 15 4 12 45 29 138 5 5
Braden Bishop R 27 CF 377 342 38 73 16 1 6 32 26 97 6 2
Joe Hudson R 30 C 223 200 17 36 7 0 5 15 18 70 0 0
Jose Marmolejos L 28 1B 454 420 49 99 19 2 14 54 30 116 0 1
Sam Travis R 27 1B 452 417 49 104 17 1 12 39 32 109 5 1
Jake Fraley L 26 RF 414 378 46 85 20 5 11 43 25 117 15 8
Eric Filia L 28 RF 409 366 43 93 18 1 5 33 37 49 3 2
Sam Haggerty B 27 2B 408 358 43 74 17 4 5 29 42 130 24 6
Dee Strange-Gordon L 33 2B 472 442 56 118 13 5 2 25 17 68 24 10
Dom Thompson-Williams L 26 CF 460 426 45 86 16 2 14 45 27 175 12 6
Julio Y. Rodriguez R 20 RF 422 391 49 94 20 3 13 49 21 120 1 4
Alen Hanson B 28 2B 340 316 39 70 12 3 8 34 16 87 12 5
Collin Cowgill R 35 CF 299 270 31 51 10 1 7 27 22 92 5 2
Evan White R 25 1B 503 461 53 97 17 2 18 63 36 169 2 3
Rymer Liriano R 30 RF 378 337 41 66 9 1 12 40 35 139 7 4
Jordan Cowan L 26 2B 499 455 45 102 14 0 3 26 35 109 11 3
Taylor Trammell L 23 LF 530 468 55 96 11 4 10 38 54 150 18 10
Jake Scheiner R 25 3B 519 476 54 104 20 3 14 54 31 142 4 7
Joe Rizzo L 23 3B 616 576 62 133 24 2 12 55 34 134 2 4
Carlos González L 35 RF 396 358 46 78 16 1 10 35 33 110 2 2
Connor Lien R 27 CF 324 290 28 37 8 1 12 31 25 190 7 3
Keegan McGovern L 25 RF 382 341 40 60 10 1 15 44 30 156 0 1
Connor Kopach R 26 2B 464 421 42 74 15 3 9 36 32 178 15 5
Jack Larsen L 26 LF 478 426 44 69 14 3 11 42 48 211 3 2

 

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Ty France .268 .335 .437 112 .169 .318 5.3 -1 2.6 Buddy Bell
J.P. Crawford .243 .331 .371 95 .128 .302 4.4 2 2.3 Mike Fontenot
Mitch Haniger .253 .335 .464 119 .211 .307 5.7 4 2.3 Richard Hidalgo
Kyle Seager .246 .325 .432 108 .185 .270 5.0 -1 2.1 Mike Lowell
Jarred Kelenic .235 .296 .447 102 .212 .296 4.6 -7 1.1 Felix Pie 피에
Kyle Lewis .244 .317 .393 96 .149 .342 4.5 2 1.1 Mark Quinn
Dylan Moore .219 .302 .385 89 .166 .280 4.0 -2 1.0 Jim Pankovits
Brian O’Keefe .212 .286 .354 77 .142 .274 3.5 4 1.0 Dave Toth
Tom Murphy .221 .272 .425 89 .205 .296 4.0 -1 0.9 Jim Hegan
Cal Raleigh .215 .273 .413 87 .197 .260 3.9 -5 0.8 Damon Berryhill
Luis Torrens .239 .297 .350 79 .112 .295 3.6 0 0.7 Jason Jaramillo
Donovan Walton .228 .296 .341 77 .113 .274 3.2 2 0.6 Alan Lewis
José Godoy .226 .289 .321 70 .095 .277 3.2 3 0.5 Gary Bennett
Shed Long Jr. .220 .288 .361 79 .141 .295 3.6 -2 0.2 Jason Donald
Luis Liberato .206 .257 .344 65 .138 .274 2.9 9 0.2 B.J. Barns
Braden Bishop .213 .278 .319 66 .105 .280 3.1 4 0.1 Gary Varner
Joe Hudson .180 .250 .290 50 .110 .248 2.4 5 0.1 Tom Nieto
Jose Marmolejos .236 .289 .390 86 .155 .293 3.9 2 0.1 Dave Yobs
Sam Travis .249 .305 .381 89 .132 .311 4.3 -2 0.0 Francisco Melendez
Jake Fraley .225 .283 .392 85 .167 .296 3.8 1 0.0 Mike Patterson
Eric Filia .254 .325 .350 88 .096 .282 4.1 -3 -0.1 Adam Casillas
Sam Haggerty .207 .294 .318 71 .112 .309 3.5 -4 -0.2 Harry Chappas
Dee Strange-Gordon .267 .301 .333 76 .066 .312 3.8 -4 -0.2 Adam Kennedy
Dom Thompson-Williams .202 .257 .347 66 .146 .304 3.0 3 -0.2 Justin Bowles
Julio Y. Rodriguez .240 .291 .407 91 .166 .314 4.0 -4 -0.2 Rod Allen
Alen Hanson .222 .261 .354 69 .133 .281 3.3 -1 -0.3 Kevin Davis
Collin Cowgill .189 .258 .311 57 .122 .257 2.7 1 -0.4 Thomas Johnson
Evan White .210 .270 .373 76 .163 .288 3.4 2 -0.5 Brock Peterson
Rymer Liriano .196 .276 .335 69 .139 .290 3.1 2 -0.6 Jed Hansen
Jordan Cowan .224 .282 .275 56 .051 .289 2.8 2 -0.6 Rod Booker
Taylor Trammell .205 .292 .310 68 .105 .279 3.0 3 -0.6 Roger Bernadina 버나디나
Jake Scheiner .218 .273 .361 74 .143 .281 3.2 -4 -0.6 Ivanon Coffie
Joe Rizzo .231 .276 .342 71 .111 .281 3.2 -2 -0.7 Aarom Baldiris 발디리스
Carlos González .218 .284 .352 75 .134 .286 3.4 -2 -0.8 Casey Parsons
Connor Lien .128 .211 .286 36 .159 .284 1.9 4 -1.0 Keith Eaddy
Keegan McGovern .176 .262 .343 66 .167 .265 2.9 -3 -1.2 Garrick Haltiwanger
Connor Kopach .176 .241 .290 47 .114 .278 2.4 -1 -1.5 Eric Nelson
Jack Larsen .162 .249 .286 49 .124 .284 2.3 -1 -2.2 Jeffrey Fortenberry

 

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Marco Gonzales L 29 12 11 4.13 28 27 159.0 163 73 22 38 131 4.16
Justus Sheffield L 25 8 9 4.49 30 28 148.3 149 74 19 69 137 4.56
Yusei Kikuchi L 30 7 8 4.45 25 25 131.3 132 65 19 46 117 4.47
Logan Gilbert R 24 8 9 4.61 27 27 125.0 125 64 22 41 123 4.63
Nick Margevicius L 25 7 8 4.75 28 23 125.0 136 66 21 32 103 4.63
Chris Flexen R 26 5 5 4.50 30 16 94.0 92 47 15 34 96 4.46
Justin Dunn R 25 7 8 4.93 27 27 127.7 126 70 23 60 124 5.15
Penn Murfee R 27 5 5 4.70 30 17 95.7 99 50 14 38 84 4.71
Robert Dugger R 25 7 8 4.87 24 22 120.0 121 65 20 46 103 4.96
Ljay Newsome R 24 7 8 4.97 25 25 121.3 136 67 26 23 99 5.05
Zac Grotz R 28 4 3 4.31 29 7 64.7 64 31 8 22 57 4.28
Rafael Montero R 30 3 2 3.58 50 0 50.3 44 20 7 16 58 3.76
Anthony Misiewicz L 26 6 8 4.96 32 19 105.3 111 58 19 34 96 4.84
Alejandro Requena R 24 9 11 5.03 23 20 105.7 111 59 16 48 86 5.05
Andres Munoz R 22 5 4 3.84 59 0 58.7 46 25 6 34 74 3.83
Darren McCaughan R 25 8 11 5.18 27 27 140.7 160 81 29 34 99 5.35
Sam Delaplane R 26 4 4 3.98 45 0 61.0 52 27 8 28 73 4.07
Kendall Graveman R 30 4 5 5.08 18 13 72.7 80 41 12 24 52 5.01
Erik Swanson R 27 3 4 5.02 29 15 80.7 80 45 16 25 82 4.80
Drew Steckenrider R 30 3 3 4.04 52 0 49.0 41 22 8 23 64 4.22
Wei-Yin Chen L 35 3 4 4.91 27 10 77.0 79 42 15 24 77 4.73
Yohan Ramirez R 26 4 5 4.92 31 11 82.3 70 45 10 65 95 5.04
Wyatt Mills R 26 3 3 4.10 45 0 52.7 50 24 6 20 51 4.03
Casey Sadler R 30 3 3 4.38 43 2 61.7 60 30 10 21 55 4.77
Vinny Nittoli R 30 3 3 4.46 23 3 40.3 41 20 6 13 35 4.49
Yoshihisa Hirano R 37 3 3 4.12 49 0 43.7 41 20 6 18 43 4.37
Manny Bañuelos L 30 5 6 5.11 25 13 79.3 80 45 13 41 75 5.12
Aaron Fletcher L 25 3 3 4.28 36 1 54.7 52 26 7 26 54 4.46
Keynan Middleton R 27 1 1 4.14 44 0 41.3 37 19 5 20 46 4.05
Scott Boches R 26 5 5 4.72 39 4 80.0 81 42 12 36 71 4.89
Austin Hutchison R 26 5 7 5.27 26 19 109.3 119 64 18 53 86 5.39
Joey Gerber R 24 3 3 4.31 49 0 48.0 45 23 6 24 47 4.53
Collin Kober R 26 3 3 4.37 47 0 68.0 67 33 10 27 64 4.58
Sam Tuivailala R 28 3 3 4.57 43 3 41.3 40 21 7 16 40 4.75
Cody Anderson R 30 2 3 5.16 15 10 45.3 49 26 8 18 39 5.08
Brady Lail R 27 3 4 5.09 27 8 76.0 76 43 14 34 70 5.23
Ian McKinney L 26 6 9 5.37 28 22 114.0 116 68 18 69 104 5.41
Bryan Shaw R 33 3 3 4.42 54 0 53.0 51 26 7 25 50 4.54
Brandon Brennan R 29 4 4 4.56 43 1 51.3 48 26 7 26 49 4.68
Jack Anderson R 27 3 3 4.47 45 0 58.3 61 29 8 23 48 4.65
Matt Festa R 28 3 3 4.50 36 0 44.0 42 22 7 17 43 4.59
Carl Edwards Jr. R 29 3 3 4.50 47 0 40.0 31 20 5 26 46 4.53
Matt Magill R 31 3 3 4.66 45 1 48.3 46 25 8 22 48 4.84
Jake Haberer R 26 2 2 4.54 28 0 33.7 31 17 4 22 33 4.81
Domingo Tapia R 29 3 4 4.91 38 3 58.7 61 32 9 28 45 5.23
Will Vest R 26 3 4 4.78 37 0 52.7 54 28 8 23 45 4.93
Chasen Bradford R 31 1 2 4.95 35 0 40.0 43 22 6 15 29 4.96
Gerson Bautista R 26 2 3 5.05 40 1 51.7 51 29 9 29 54 5.15
Benjamin Onyshko L 24 2 3 5.13 29 1 52.7 56 30 7 29 37 5.33
Nick Duron R 25 2 3 5.80 19 4 35.7 39 23 6 22 30 5.70
Jimmy Yacabonis R 29 2 4 5.65 35 9 65.3 68 41 11 38 51 5.74
Raymond Kerr L 26 5 7 5.67 32 14 85.7 93 54 15 50 69 5.81

 

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Marco Gonzales 7.4 2.2 1.2 5.7% 19.5% .297 104 96 2.4 Dave Roberts
Justus Sheffield 8.3 4.2 1.2 10.4% 20.7% .304 95 105 1.6 Jerry Reuss
Yusei Kikuchi 8.0 3.2 1.3 8.1% 20.6% .297 96 104 1.5 Jim O’Toole
Logan Gilbert 8.9 3.0 1.6 7.6% 22.9% .298 93 108 1.2 Kelly Downs
Nick Margevicius 7.4 2.3 1.5 5.9% 19.1% .304 90 111 1.0 Bobby Livingston
Chris Flexen 9.2 3.3 1.4 8.4% 23.6% .300 95 105 0.9 Michael LaCoss
Justin Dunn 8.7 4.2 1.6 10.6% 21.9% .292 87 115 0.8 Mike Mills
Penn Murfee 7.9 3.6 1.3 9.0% 19.9% .302 91 110 0.8 Marino Pieretti
Robert Dugger 7.7 3.5 1.5 8.8% 19.6% .289 88 114 0.7 Cha-Seung Baek
Ljay Newsome 7.3 1.7 1.9 4.4% 19.0% .301 86 116 0.7 Tim Kester
Zac Grotz 7.9 3.1 1.1 7.9% 20.4% .298 99 101 0.6 Adrian Devine
Rafael Montero 10.4 2.9 1.3 7.6% 27.6% .291 120 83 0.6 Antonio Alfonseca
Anthony Misiewicz 8.2 2.9 1.6 7.4% 20.9% .302 86 116 0.5 Gary Lucas
Alejandro Requena 7.3 4.1 1.4 10.1% 18.1% .299 85 117 0.5 Justin Sturge
Andres Munoz 11.4 5.2 0.9 13.3% 29.0% .288 112 90 0.5 Mark Littell
Darren McCaughan 6.3 2.2 1.9 5.5% 16.2% .296 83 121 0.5 A.J. Sager
Sam Delaplane 10.8 4.1 1.2 10.6% 27.8% .293 108 93 0.4 Turk Farrell
Kendall Graveman 6.4 3.0 1.5 7.5% 16.3% .298 84 119 0.3 Danny McFayden
Erik Swanson 9.1 2.8 1.8 7.2% 23.7% .292 85 117 0.3 Dave Borkowski
Drew Steckenrider 11.8 4.2 1.5 11.0% 30.5% .292 106 94 0.3 Ken Ryan
Wei-Yin Chen 9.0 2.8 1.8 7.3% 23.3% .300 87 115 0.3 Bob Scanlan
Yohan Ramirez 10.4 7.1 1.1 17.0% 24.8% .290 87 115 0.3 Whitey Moore
Wyatt Mills 8.7 3.4 1.0 8.8% 22.5% .299 104 96 0.3 Rocky Childress
Casey Sadler 8.0 3.1 1.5 7.9% 20.6% .284 98 102 0.3 Kent Tekulve
Vinny Nittoli 7.8 2.9 1.3 7.5% 20.1% .297 96 104 0.3 Ron Taylor
Yoshihisa Hirano 8.9 3.7 1.2 9.5% 22.8% .292 104 96 0.2 Dave Giusti
Manny Bañuelos 8.5 4.7 1.5 11.5% 21.0% .299 84 119 0.2 Mike Kekich
Aaron Fletcher 8.9 4.3 1.2 10.8% 22.4% .298 100 100 0.2 Marcelino Lopez
Keynan Middleton 10.0 4.4 1.1 11.2% 25.7% .299 104 97 0.2 Doug Sisk
Scott Boches 8.0 4.1 1.4 10.1% 19.9% .297 91 110 0.2 Robert Tenenini
Austin Hutchison 7.1 4.4 1.5 10.6% 17.2% .301 81 123 0.2 Nick Masset
Joey Gerber 8.8 4.5 1.1 11.3% 22.1% .293 99 101 0.2 Ray Herbert
Collin Kober 8.5 3.6 1.3 9.1% 21.5% .297 98 102 0.1 Rosman Garcia
Sam Tuivailala 8.7 3.5 1.5 8.9% 22.3% .289 94 107 0.1 Trey Witte
Cody Anderson 7.7 3.6 1.6 8.9% 19.3% .304 83 120 0.1 Bennie Daniels
Brady Lail 8.3 4.0 1.7 10.1% 20.8% .288 84 119 0.1 Bill Swaggerty
Ian McKinney 8.2 5.4 1.4 13.1% 19.8% .299 80 125 0.1 Mike Wodnicki
Bryan Shaw 8.5 4.2 1.2 10.7% 21.5% .295 97 103 0.1 Jim Coates
Brandon Brennan 8.6 4.6 1.2 11.5% 21.7% .289 94 106 0.1 Ron Piche
Jack Anderson 7.4 3.5 1.2 8.9% 18.6% .301 96 104 0.1 Jim York
Matt Festa 8.8 3.5 1.4 8.9% 22.6% .289 95 105 0.0 Mike Bacsik
Carl Edwards Jr. 10.4 5.9 1.1 14.9% 26.3% .268 95 105 0.0 Don Stanhouse
Matt Magill 8.9 4.1 1.5 10.4% 22.6% .288 92 109 0.0 Bobby Hogue
Jake Haberer 8.8 5.9 1.1 14.4% 21.6% .290 94 106 0.0 Butch Metzger
Domingo Tapia 6.9 4.3 1.4 10.6% 17.0% .291 87 115 0.0 Dale Murray
Will Vest 7.7 3.9 1.4 9.8% 19.2% .297 90 112 -0.1 Jack Cassel
Chasen Bradford 6.5 3.4 1.4 8.5% 16.4% .296 87 116 -0.2 Mike Barlow
Gerson Bautista 9.4 5.1 1.6 12.4% 23.1% .300 85 118 -0.2 Mike Madden
Benjamin Onyshko 6.3 5.0 1.2 12.0% 15.3% .295 84 120 -0.3 Scott Rice
Nick Duron 7.6 5.6 1.5 13.2% 18.0% .308 74 135 -0.3 Jason Szuminski
Jimmy Yacabonis 7.0 5.2 1.5 12.6% 16.9% .289 76 132 -0.3 Karl Drews
Raymond Kerr 7.2 5.3 1.6 12.5% 17.3% .300 76 132 -0.4 Matt Coenen

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Jim H
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Jim H

Me 5 Minutes Ago: Can’t wait to see who Kelenic’s comp is.

Me Now: Errr, ummm. Googling how to unsee things.

bosoxforlife
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bosoxforlife

That is very funny, but it is also another reason I refuse to take anything spit out by these programs seriously.

EccentricChemist
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EccentricChemist

Look at Felix Pie 2006 numbers in AAA, pretty good for a 21 year old…you can’t blame the system for Pie flaming out once he hit the majors the following two years.

Sculpin
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Sculpin

Wow. Ouch. Kelenic and Pie and no interest in what went wrong. This is the last time I click on a Zips projection, goodbye strange world!