2021 ZiPS Projections: Los Angeles Angels by Dan Szymborski December 11, 2020 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels. ZiPS Projections 20212020ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFGALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters What makes the Angels a serious threat in any given season is fairly obvious: Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Trout starts just about every season as the MVP favorite — at least for now — and signing Rendon last winter brought in a second sorely needed superstar. A team that employs these two begins each year as top-tier contender… if they can just build a .500 team around the pair. That’s been the riddle the Halos have found themselves unable to solve; the last time the team had a winning record was 2015, and their last playoff appearance was 2014. A decade of Trout without a single playoff win represents arguably some of the most wasted baseball potential in history. Sure, there have been examples of the Angels having terrible luck. Albert Pujols declined more quickly and more steeply than anyone imagined he would when he headed to the west coast for a mega-deal after the 2011 season. The problem is the team has frequently doubled-down on bad luck rather than mitigating its effects. Take Pujols. The Angels had little control over his walk off the proverbial cliff, but to keep playing him, hell or high water, was their decision. Nobody made the Angels essentially throw in the towel on having a major league quality first baseman for several years. Whether it’s Justin Upton or the parade of pitcher injuries, the Angels keep throwing good money after bad. And the clock is ticking. Trout is no longer the young phenom; he’s approaching 30, and given the height of his peak, it’s likely that he’s already had his best season in the majors. The same goes for Rendon, who turns 31 next season. Given all of that, you might think that I have an overwhelmingly negative view of the 2021 Angels. Actually, I’m relatively optimistic, albeit with an “if.” Even with the loss of Andrelton Simmons, there are some players here of real value. José Iglesias was legitimately excellent in 2020, even if you issue a stiff correction to his .400 BABIP. Jo Adell can’t possibly be worse than he was in last season, and he was a terrific prospect for very good reasons. The Angels have money they can choose to spend and if they can make real additions in left field and at first base — like ZiPS, I’m a Jared Walsh skeptic — they can challenge the A’s and Astros, two organizations that fall short of perfection. Time is not on the side of the Angels. Now is when you can finally build a championship team around Mike Trout, not later. A winter when everyone else feels uncertain about the future is the best time to take the grandest risk for the highest upside. Pitchers Trevor Bauer would be a nice fit for the Angels, but that’s because he’d be — at least on the mound — a nice fit for pretty much everyone. Well, maybe not the Astros. Dylan Bundy got a boost playing in a much better ballpark for his talents, and I’m far more certain he’s a number two or three starter than I was after his last season with the Orioles. Andrew Heaney isn’t going to turn into Tom Glavine or anything, but he’s been relatively dependable for the Angels when healthy the last three seasons. ZiPS likes both Patrick Sandoval and Griffin Canning to be average or even slightly better-than-average in 2021, and both are young enough to remain interesting even without world-beating stuff. You may be giving me the stink-eye about the positive Sandoval projection right now, but like Corbin Burnes last year, the suspicious stares ought to be directed at the home run rate, not me! The real X factor is what, if anything, they can get from Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher in 2021. He’s been better-than-expected offensively in the States, but his pitching has been inconsistent, and his flashes of brilliance have generally been cut short by injury. Ohtani still wants to be a two-way player, and it’s still in the Angels’ best interest to entertain the notion; upside that high is too tantalizing to pass up just to have a sure-thing designated hitter. Ohtani’s top comp is a fun one. Scipio Spinks was one of the more interesting characters in the late 60s. Spinks was a highly regarded young pitcher for the Astros, from a family who named all of the firstborn sons after figures in Roman history. Traded to the Cardinals for Jerry Reuss, Spinks carried around a three-foot stuffed gorilla named Joe, which became his constant companion. As a rookie, Bob Gibson once stole its nose! Spinks was the second-best starting pitcher on the 1972 Cardinals, but running the bases — he was sometimes used as a pinch-runner, a job he enjoyed — he injured his knee in a home-plate collision with Johnny Bench. The following season, he injured his shoulder, and he was never the same again. Spinks later worked as a high school coach and was a mentor to Oil Can Boyd and Matt Clement. The top comp lists are full of interesting players like this, and if you see a name you don’t know, it’s fun to do some winter reading. But I digress. The Angels rotation is not in particularly bad shape, though it could use some spice at the top and some depth at the bottom. As with the offense, the Angels have a real incentive to go as over-the-top as they can this season while they still have the opportunity. ZiPS is equally as positive about the bullpen, seeing it somewhere around the 10th-best in the majors despite losses to free agency. The Angels won’t miss Noé Ramirez if Raisel Iglesias closes out 40 games for a division winner in 2021. While the closer role is likely taken care of with Iglesias, an extra arm or two ought to be welcomed. When the injuries start, it would be a nice change of pace if the Angels employed too many quality pitchers rather than too few. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Batters – Standard Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Mike Trout R 29 CF 593 473 100 134 25 4 39 109 104 131 12 3 Anthony Rendon R 31 3B 598 508 81 143 33 2 26 94 74 89 3 1 Andrelton Simmons R 31 SS 535 498 62 136 26 2 7 53 31 53 10 2 José Iglesias R 31 SS 505 479 55 142 35 2 8 63 16 61 6 4 David Fletcher R 27 2B 665 612 79 171 33 4 8 52 44 73 9 4 Shohei Ohtani L 26 DH 454 405 62 103 21 2 21 78 45 131 14 3 Jared Walsh L 27 1B 495 450 65 110 24 3 26 84 34 142 0 0 Jo Adell R 22 RF 519 481 48 122 24 1 16 46 32 167 7 3 Max Stassi R 30 C 279 245 30 56 10 0 11 37 26 72 0 1 Taylor Ward R 27 3B 503 448 63 106 21 3 15 50 49 132 8 2 Franklin Barreto R 25 2B 408 374 55 83 16 3 18 57 25 142 9 2 Luis Rengifo B 24 2B 523 462 60 106 19 5 9 41 51 113 13 9 Justin Upton R 33 LF 464 410 59 91 17 0 23 75 43 139 4 3 Matt Thaiss L 26 3B 516 461 58 104 20 3 15 56 49 125 3 2 Kean Wong L 26 2B 545 503 57 126 22 3 9 48 32 121 8 5 Scott Schebler L 30 CF 396 355 43 79 16 1 13 48 31 95 2 3 Brandon Marsh L 23 CF 551 503 54 109 19 3 11 47 44 165 16 6 Anthony Bemboom L 31 C 226 199 23 39 6 1 6 18 19 57 0 2 Elliot Soto R 31 SS 359 326 36 73 13 4 3 23 27 82 4 3 Orlando Martinez L 23 CF 412 385 41 83 16 2 11 40 22 102 5 6 José Rojas L 28 2B 535 497 60 113 24 4 18 68 32 143 4 5 Dustin Peterson R 26 LF 444 416 44 97 20 1 12 52 23 115 2 1 Arismendy Alcántara B 29 LF 391 361 44 79 14 5 12 45 26 114 13 3 Leonardo Rivas B 23 SS 498 452 47 85 15 4 10 36 42 150 8 4 Michael Stefanic R 25 SS 468 433 43 95 14 0 4 29 22 68 6 6 Brennon Lund L 26 CF 520 476 52 106 19 4 8 43 33 139 11 4 Albert Pujols R 41 1B 453 419 39 95 18 0 15 72 26 66 1 0 Eduard Pinto L 26 LF 338 317 33 79 14 1 4 26 13 41 6 7 Gareth Morgan R 25 RF 388 361 39 59 9 1 19 51 24 187 4 3 Francisco Arcia L 31 C 286 267 23 55 8 0 4 23 10 64 1 2 Ibandel Isabel R 26 1B 442 407 49 75 10 1 24 77 29 226 0 1 Jahmai Jones R 23 2B 506 466 49 104 16 3 8 37 32 125 7 8 Jack Kruger R 26 C 438 410 38 86 14 1 6 31 23 105 3 3 Erick Salcedo B 28 SS 431 406 34 85 15 2 3 29 18 71 3 3 Ray-Patrick Didder R 26 SS 450 393 41 69 10 3 6 27 40 154 19 8 Victor Acosta R 25 LF 439 407 39 90 19 1 5 31 25 71 3 4 Luis Aviles Jr. R 26 SS 453 419 39 80 14 1 5 29 27 162 22 7 Izzy Wilson L 23 RF 388 352 35 60 11 4 9 28 32 154 13 6 Brendon Davis R 23 LF 466 424 41 82 16 2 7 35 33 134 1 3 Batters – Advanced Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Mike Trout .283 .420 .600 174 .317 .314 9.6 -2 6.7 Mickey Mantle Anthony Rendon .281 .380 .508 140 .226 .298 7.3 3 4.9 Brooks Robinson Andrelton Simmons .273 .318 .376 89 .102 .295 4.6 12 2.5 Buck Jordan José Iglesias .296 .326 .428 104 .132 .327 5.3 5 2.5 Dick Groat David Fletcher .279 .329 .386 95 .106 .307 4.8 5 2.2 Mark Loretta Shohei Ohtani .254 .330 .472 115 .217 .324 5.9 0 1.6 John Briggs Jared Walsh .244 .303 .484 110 .240 .298 5.2 1 1.3 Larry Sheets Jo Adell .254 .306 .407 93 .154 .356 4.5 8 1.3 Jermaine Dye Max Stassi .229 .312 .404 94 .176 .278 4.3 1 0.9 Kelly Stinnett Taylor Ward .237 .316 .397 93 .161 .302 4.5 -4 0.9 Paul Runge Franklin Barreto .222 .280 .425 89 .203 .304 4.3 0 0.8 Craig Counsell Luis Rengifo .229 .312 .351 81 .121 .285 3.7 1 0.5 Ralph Milliard Justin Upton .222 .304 .432 98 .210 .274 4.5 -3 0.4 Ernie Young Matt Thaiss .226 .302 .380 85 .154 .277 4.0 -3 0.3 Joe Dillon Kean Wong .250 .301 .360 80 .109 .314 3.9 -1 0.2 Hubie Brooks Scott Schebler .223 .295 .383 84 .161 .267 3.8 -2 0.1 Ryan McGuire Brandon Marsh .217 .281 .332 67 .115 .300 3.3 6 0.1 Mel Hall Anthony Bemboom .196 .274 .327 63 .131 .243 2.8 2 0.0 Henry Blanco Elliot Soto .224 .286 .316 65 .092 .290 3.1 2 -0.1 Tommy Murphy Orlando Martinez .216 .257 .353 64 .138 .265 2.9 7 -0.1 Erold Andrus José Rojas .227 .275 .400 81 .173 .283 3.7 -4 -0.2 Chris Truby Dustin Peterson .233 .277 .373 75 .139 .294 3.6 3 -0.3 Bryan LaHair Arismendy Alcántara .219 .272 .385 77 .166 .285 3.8 -3 -0.7 Lee Granger Leonardo Rivas .188 .260 .305 54 .117 .257 2.6 2 -0.7 Andy Sheets Michael Stefanic .219 .274 .279 52 .060 .252 2.5 2 -0.9 David Milstien Brennon Lund .223 .279 .330 66 .107 .298 3.3 -4 -1.0 Elijah Bonaparte Albert Pujols .227 .274 .377 75 .150 .237 3.6 -2 -1.0 Pete O’Brien Eduard Pinto .249 .284 .338 69 .088 .276 3.2 -2 -1.1 Tim Leiper Gareth Morgan .163 .219 .352 52 .188 .258 2.4 6 -1.2 Jordan Renz Francisco Arcia .206 .250 .281 45 .075 .256 2.3 -3 -1.2 Charlie Greene Ibandel Isabel .184 .247 .391 70 .206 .325 3.1 -1 -1.2 Aaron McNeal Jahmai Jones .223 .275 .322 63 .099 .288 2.9 -4 -1.3 Frank Martinez Jack Kruger .210 .258 .293 50 .083 .268 2.5 -4 -1.4 Scott Sandusky Erick Salcedo .209 .243 .278 42 .069 .247 2.2 2 -1.4 Jerome Alviso Ray-Patrick Didder .176 .272 .262 48 .087 .270 2.4 -4 -1.4 Brett King Victor Acosta .221 .272 .310 59 .088 .257 2.8 2 -1.4 Lee Grimes Luis Aviles Jr. .191 .242 .265 39 .074 .298 2.3 1 -1.6 Chris Moritz Izzy Wilson .170 .243 .301 48 .131 .270 2.4 1 -1.7 Brian Martin Brendon Davis .193 .258 .290 50 .097 .265 2.4 2 -2.0 Vince Holyfield Pitchers – Standard Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP Andrew Heaney L 30 9 6 4.00 26 26 146.3 133 65 23 37 163 3.90 Dylan Bundy R 28 12 10 4.33 28 28 160.0 146 77 27 49 172 4.27 Patrick Sandoval L 24 9 8 4.37 31 27 129.7 121 63 19 51 134 4.31 Griffin Canning R 25 7 6 4.30 24 23 119.3 110 57 19 42 124 4.45 Raisel Iglesias R 31 8 4 3.29 61 0 63.0 51 23 8 21 79 3.42 Felix Peña R 31 5 4 4.44 29 11 95.3 91 47 16 34 101 4.47 Luiz Gohara L 24 5 5 4.66 26 20 102.3 95 53 19 39 116 4.62 Shohei Ohtani R 26 5 4 4.12 12 12 63.3 54 29 8 32 79 3.94 Packy Naughton L 25 10 10 5.03 28 28 146.7 160 82 24 43 108 4.88 Jhonathan Diaz L 24 8 8 4.94 25 25 120.3 124 66 15 60 89 4.99 Jake Thompson R 27 7 7 4.76 26 17 102.0 100 54 14 48 90 4.76 Ty Buttrey R 28 7 4 3.69 67 0 70.7 64 29 8 26 76 3.77 Julio Teheran R 30 9 9 5.12 29 29 144.0 135 82 30 65 131 5.59 Jake Faria R 27 7 6 4.89 36 15 103.0 100 56 18 48 102 5.01 Oliver Ortega R 24 7 7 5.12 28 22 109.0 106 62 15 67 100 5.14 Matt Andriese R 31 6 5 4.61 42 7 80.0 77 41 14 27 84 4.48 Hoby Milner L 30 2 1 3.66 52 0 51.7 46 21 6 17 56 3.74 Mike Mayers R 29 3 2 3.92 56 1 59.7 53 26 8 21 70 3.73 Cam Bedrosian R 29 3 2 3.93 53 3 52.7 48 23 7 20 53 4.09 Dillon Peters L 28 5 6 5.20 22 18 97.0 106 56 18 33 77 5.18 José Suarez L 23 4 5 5.20 21 17 88.3 94 51 16 37 79 5.27 Kyle Keller R 28 3 2 3.86 39 0 51.3 42 22 6 25 62 3.92 Jaime Barria R 24 7 8 5.37 27 22 124.0 133 74 28 33 106 5.30 Hansel Robles R 30 4 3 4.24 62 0 63.7 58 30 10 25 69 4.33 Gerardo Reyes R 28 4 4 4.43 55 0 63.0 55 31 8 34 74 4.29 Justin Anderson R 28 3 3 4.45 58 0 56.7 48 28 7 35 69 4.31 Keynan Middleton R 27 1 1 4.35 44 0 41.3 38 20 6 20 44 4.46 José Quijada L 25 3 3 4.53 47 0 51.7 44 26 7 32 62 4.63 JC Ramírez R 32 4 5 5.56 21 16 89.0 99 55 19 32 61 5.80 Brendan McCurry R 29 4 4 4.71 41 1 57.3 57 30 10 22 55 4.84 Michael Kohn R 35 3 2 4.50 25 0 24.0 21 12 3 14 25 4.60 Adrian De Horta R 26 1 2 5.57 16 11 53.3 53 33 11 31 58 5.60 Luke Bard R 30 4 3 4.83 39 1 54.0 53 29 11 20 54 5.16 Austin Warren R 25 5 5 4.74 37 0 57.0 53 30 8 34 58 4.92 Thomas Pannone L 27 5 7 5.58 33 15 98.3 101 61 23 40 93 5.73 Jacob Rhame R 28 3 3 4.83 46 0 50.3 49 27 10 18 55 4.77 Jake Reed R 28 3 3 5.06 42 1 64.0 63 36 10 32 63 4.88 Jose Alberto Rivera R 24 4 5 5.84 16 9 57.0 59 37 11 35 50 5.93 Neil Ramírez R 32 3 3 5.23 47 1 51.7 49 30 12 23 64 5.17 Zac Ryan R 27 3 3 5.08 39 0 56.7 52 32 8 40 60 5.23 Hector Yan L 22 3 4 6.07 21 16 72.7 72 49 13 49 62 6.03 Pitchers – Advanced Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp Andrew Heaney 10.0 2.3 1.4 6.1% 26.9% .292 112 89 2.6 Terry Mulholland Dylan Bundy 9.7 2.8 1.5 7.3% 25.6% .285 104 96 2.3 Eric King Patrick Sandoval 9.3 3.5 1.3 9.2% 24.1% .293 103 97 1.8 Jimmy Anderson Griffin Canning 9.4 3.2 1.4 8.2% 24.3% .287 104 96 1.8 Joey Hamilton Raisel Iglesias 11.3 3.0 1.1 8.1% 30.5% .289 137 73 1.3 Mike Maddux Felix Peña 9.5 3.2 1.5 8.3% 24.6% .295 101 99 1.1 Julian Tavarez Luiz Gohara 10.2 3.4 1.7 8.9% 26.4% .291 96 104 1.1 Steve Cooke Shohei Ohtani 11.2 4.5 1.1 11.7% 28.8% .301 109 92 1.1 Scipio Spinks Packy Naughton 6.6 2.6 1.5 6.7% 16.9% .298 89 112 1.0 Jeff Mutis Jhonathan Diaz 6.7 4.5 1.1 11.0% 16.4% .293 91 110 1.0 Greg Kubes Jake Thompson 7.9 4.2 1.2 10.6% 19.9% .292 94 106 1.0 Don Stanhouse Ty Buttrey 9.7 3.3 1.0 8.6% 25.2% .299 122 82 1.0 Jerry Dipoto Julio Teheran 8.2 4.1 1.9 10.3% 20.8% .265 88 114 0.9 Steve Renko Jake Faria 8.9 4.2 1.6 10.5% 22.4% .291 92 109 0.7 Greg Booker Oliver Ortega 8.3 5.5 1.2 13.5% 20.1% .294 88 114 0.7 Mike Torrez Matt Andriese 9.5 3.0 1.6 7.9% 24.6% .294 97 103 0.7 Dennis Lamp Hoby Milner 9.8 3.0 1.0 7.8% 25.6% .294 123 81 0.6 Steve Hamilton Mike Mayers 10.6 3.2 1.2 8.4% 27.9% .300 114 87 0.6 Jerry Dipoto Cam Bedrosian 9.1 3.4 1.2 9.0% 23.8% .289 114 88 0.6 Eddie Watt Dillon Peters 7.1 3.1 1.7 7.7% 18.0% .298 86 116 0.5 Wade Blasingame José Suarez 8.0 3.8 1.6 9.3% 19.8% .302 86 116 0.5 Ryan Spille Kyle Keller 10.9 4.4 1.1 11.3% 28.1% .288 116 86 0.4 Mark Acre Jaime Barria 7.7 2.4 2.0 6.2% 19.9% .290 84 120 0.4 Dave Eiland Hansel Robles 9.8 3.5 1.4 9.2% 25.4% .289 106 94 0.4 Todd Williams Gerardo Reyes 10.6 4.9 1.1 12.2% 26.6% .297 101 99 0.2 Roy Corcoran Justin Anderson 11.0 5.6 1.1 13.9% 27.4% .295 101 99 0.2 Gabe DeHoyos Keynan Middleton 9.6 4.4 1.3 11.1% 24.4% .294 103 97 0.2 Doug Sisk José Quijada 10.8 5.6 1.2 13.8% 26.7% .291 99 101 0.2 Grant Jackson JC Ramírez 6.2 3.2 1.9 8.1% 15.4% .287 81 124 0.1 Bennie Daniels Brendan McCurry 8.6 3.5 1.6 8.8% 22.0% .294 95 105 0.1 Jose Santiago Michael Kohn 9.4 5.3 1.1 13.2% 23.6% .286 100 100 0.1 Turk Lown Adrian De Horta 9.8 5.2 1.9 12.7% 23.8% .298 81 124 0.1 Tim Byron Luke Bard 9.0 3.3 1.8 8.5% 23.0% .288 93 108 0.0 Todd Erdos Austin Warren 9.2 5.4 1.3 13.2% 22.6% .292 95 106 0.0 Joe Davenport Thomas Pannone 8.5 3.7 2.1 9.2% 21.4% .286 80 124 0.0 Dean Hartgraves Jacob Rhame 9.8 3.2 1.8 8.3% 25.3% .295 93 108 0.0 Daryl Irvine Jake Reed 8.9 4.5 1.4 11.2% 22.0% .298 89 113 -0.1 Jose Segura Jose Alberto Rivera 7.9 5.5 1.7 13.3% 18.9% .291 77 130 -0.1 Jerry Stephenson Neil Ramírez 11.1 4.0 2.1 10.2% 28.3% .296 86 116 -0.2 Gregg Olson Zac Ryan 9.5 6.4 1.3 15.3% 22.9% .293 88 113 -0.2 Jake Robbins Hector Yan 7.7 6.1 1.6 14.5% 18.3% .281 74 135 -0.3 Chris Nabholz Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April. ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. 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