Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 1/10/2022

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. No fancy intro here, let’s just chat.

BlueJayMatt: Toronto have to trade a catcher to clear their logjam, right? Who gets dealt and where do they go?

Kevin Goldstein: Here’s the thing about questions like these. Yes, they probably are in a position to try to make a move here to fill something shallow from depth. As far as who and here, I don’t know, and anybody who answers this question like they do know is just doing you, the reader, a disservice. They’ll reach out to teams, teams with interest in one of the catchers will get back to them, there will be talks, and some will get traction and most will not, and maybe something gets over the line. So who knows exactly how that will play out? Even Toronto doesn’t know? I’m sure they have a preference to move Player A over Player B, but maybe the better deal ends up being for Player C. I have a bunch of trade scenarios in my queue and I just tend to ignore them . . . not being a crabapple, as much as it just doesn’t get me too interested to just make stuff up….

Datt Mamon: Do you think Votto sustains what he did last year or will we see a real decline?

Kevin Goldstein: It was a fascinating season and there’s some underlying data to support it. I don’t think you’ll see a ‘real’ decline, but age is going to play a role. A very productive player in the 850-900 OPS range wouldn’t surprise me.

AJ: Lets say lockout ends March 1, any spring training plans for you?

Kevin Goldstein: We’ll see. I’d like to, and I’d also like to stay safe, so it’s really going to depend on where we are with the pandemic.

RemarkableOffer: Does Harry Ford have star upside with his raw power and speed?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure. I could also say that about a bunch of prospects, and most won’t reach it.

RemarkableOffer: Do you think Dustin Harris taps into enough power to be a regular at 1B/LF?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s definitely not out of the question. Great find by the Rangers.

MrMet: Thank you for sharing your insights! Which teams do you think rank highest in terms of player development — especially as it relates to pitching? I would think HOU would rank highly. If so, does someone like Josh James intrigue other teams or would he be considered too risky in that since he couldn’t quite figure it out in HOU then he can’t do it anywhere else?

Kevin Goldstein: I think Houston is great at pitching development, having seen it up close. I think the Rays, Yankees, and Indians are also very good at it, as well as other. That said, I think every team has players who would be better off elsewhere. I don’t think that’s necessary to the case in James, as that’s been more of a health struggle than a developmental one.

Berkman’s Twinkie: Under the assumption that the Astros wont re-sign Correa or go after Story…will they give any thought to move Bregman back to SS and go out and get a 3B via FA or Trade (Chapman, Ramirez, Bryant, Suarez, Brian Anderson)…or does Pena/Diaz get the job and they revaulate at the deadline?

Kevin Goldstein: I just don’t see Bregman as an every day defensive SS. I think right now it’s Peña’s job to lose.

RH: Do teams ever take all of their scouts to the same game with guys they are unfamiliar with to calibrate that different scouts are seeing the same things? Seems like the early Juco season might be a good time to do that with fewer other games to see.

Kevin Goldstein: All of them? No. There’s always stuff to see. I do like (and the Astros did this), having your scouts do some big league stuff to calibrate themselves as to what big leaguers look like.

Erik: What are some things you did early in your career as a writer to git gud other than just getting a ton of reps in?

Kevin Goldstein: Reps are important. I still don’t think I’m a good writer, though. I think the most important advice I can give is to write like you talk.

Mike: Ty Buttrey, who had retired in early 2021 because he “lost the drive” to continue playing, said last night that he wants to return to MLB. Do you think he can reasonably do that, and when’s the earliest he could be ready after potentially not throwing for almost year?

Kevin Goldstein: He could reasonably do it, but it’s really impossible to answer the second part. Get him on a mound, see what the data looks like, and go from there…

Joe: Seems like he’s lost a little shine, but do you think Manning is capable of developing into a 2/3 starter like he was projected a few years ago? What does he need to do to get there?

Kevin Goldstein: He COULD, but I think No. 4 is a more realistic expectation.

Steven Kwan: Having read many of your chats, I know you generally think that a team trading a star is a bad idea. I’m curious, when should a team trade a star?

Kevin Goldstein: When it makes sense in their cycle, but all of that might change if the CBA looks different….

Three finger brown: hi Kevin! Take 3! Thank you for doing this. Question: do teams employ any tactics to essentially hide players who would be R5 eligible?  For example, IIRC, Jose Urquidy I believe was R5 eligible a few years ago.  Thanks again!

Kevin Goldstein: There are times you might not want a player to do too much AFL or Winter League Ball but in general, not really.

KB: How much would a team pay for pitcher who could give you 300+ innings a season with a league average ERA?

Kevin Goldstein: 15-20 mil?

Kevin Goldstein: That’s a gut answer. Fun question.

J: Do you know if the recent discussions between MLB/PA about the “non core economic issues” went productively?

Kevin Goldstein: I haven’t heard, but I’m not sure it matters. It’s like going to the car dealership and just sampling the coffee. It has no impact to getting a deal done.

Liptowi: Who gets the majority of ABs as the NYY SS in ‘22?

Kevin Goldstein: Somebody not currently on their roster. I still think Correa is the perfect fit there and would have a massive impact.

Tony Plush: Thanks for the chat, KG! Just curious if you’ve had any looks (on video) at Genevieve Beacom and what you saw. Cool week for women in baseball

Kevin Goldstein: Very cool indeed. Really nice delivery, seems like she can spin it. I’m with her manager Peter Moylan in that she’d have a chance to pitch college ball here.

Isolated Thinker: Of all the people you have had the opportunity to meet, which ones were you most awestruck about?

Kevin Goldstein: Strangely enough, A-Rod.

Mike: What is a realistic innings expectation for Verlander this season?

Kevin Goldstein: 145?

Ace: Thoughts on James triantos?

Kevin Goldstein: It looks like he can REALLY hit.

NotAA: At what point in the spring do decision makers within the FO travel to see draft prospects ?

Kevin Goldstein: I spent most of my afternoons and evenings during spring training driving around the state of Florida to see players, so pretty much from day one.

Duchess: I was looking back at some first rounds of previous MLB drafts and it seemed like even well into the 90’s and 2000’s it was a really low success rate, but that things started to improve around 2014 or so. It could be recency bias on my part, but has anyone studied this, and would there be a scouting/tech turning point that we could point to leading to improved results?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes, there is no question that the industry as a whole is much better at drafting than it used to be. Scouts are better, tech is better, all sorts of factors.

Colby: It seems like the world wants more playoffs due to the excitement and revenue they come with. Do you ever think the mlbpa and the owners would agree to a tournament with the teams that didn’t qualify for the playoffs that involved them playing for the #1 pick in next years draft?

Kevin Goldstein: The players wouldn’t go for that.

Willy: Do most trade talks start with hey are you interested in player X, or is it what are you looking for?

Kevin Goldstein: Honestly, about a 50/50 split.

NotAA: Any plans for you or Eric to make a trip down to the great state of Georgia this spring for some HS/College game?

Kevin Goldstein: We’ve talked about it, but again, a lot depends on non-baseball factors.

Julia: What are the chances we see Curtis Mead in the big leagues this year?

Kevin Goldstein: Very small.

Gest: Were you present for any recruitment meetings with Shohei Ohtani? If so, what was that like?

Kevin Goldstein: The Astros did a presentation, and I was involved with that, as well as a meeting with his agents at the Winter Meetings, but it was pretty clear from day one that he was going to end up on a coast.

CloseCall: Which did you enjoy more: free agency or trade negotiations? Something about trades seem more fun to me, the built-in drama of making a swap.

Kevin Goldstein: Boy, I enjoyed both. I like working with agents more than most I think.

Mickey: With the vaccine showing no reduction in transmission, will this affect any mandates on players in MLB?

Kevin Goldstein: I hope so. We’ve seen the problems in the NBA and NHL, and they have far higher vaccination rates than baseball.

Ace: Can teams prohibit players from playing in the Dominican winter league?

Kevin Goldstein: They can ask them not to, but most of the time it’s fine.

BM: Any chance Elijah Green falls to the Cubs in the draft?

Kevin Goldstein: I would take something amazing and exceptionally unexpected to get to seven.

Liptowi: Y A-Rod?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know! But it really stopped me in my tracks.

171: If a team could sign a hitter who could only play DH and could guarantee a home run once per game (but you can never know when) and every other AB was a K, would that player be worth anything?

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely. That’s a 1000+ OPS, no?

DC: The Cubs system is deep, but do they have any stars? Could a top talent fall to them in the next draft?

Kevin Goldstein: They have a ton of potential stars. It’s in incredibly young system and it will take years to know just how good (or not) it is.

171: Any thoughts on Carter Baumler? Excited to see him get some innings in after his TJ after the draft.

Kevin Goldstein: I really liked him coming out of the draft. If he’s 100% he becomes pretty interesting.

Erik: I’ve been surprised that seemingly no NL team in the analytics era has decided it could get an edge by having their pitchers work on hitting enough to be merely awful at hitting rather than completely atrocious. I’d think that getting a +10 wRC+ from that spot would be a huge boon when the league averages around -20. What prevents that from being a strategy worth pursuing?

Kevin Goldstein: I just think that to get there you’d be detracting from their pitching work.

Carlos: At what point did you become aware of the sign-stealing going on with the Astros? I feel like you owe it to your readers to address this

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, I addressed this in my first piece at FanGraphs. Clearly there’s some kind of organized thing (or maybe one person using different names) in this chat to come after me about this, and that’s cool. Fun way to start 2022 for you folks, I guess. Still, I did address this (and all of the other questions you have asked) here:

Kevin Goldstein: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hello-there/

Kevin Goldstein: If you read that and have any questions, just let me know.

Mitch: I am curious if teams are allowed to contact opposing teams’ players before they agree to trade for said player. For example: Team A identifies a player on Team B who they think they can get more out of via a swing change, pitch mix change, etc. Is team A allowed to contact that player beforehand and ask if they would be open to such a change?

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely not.

Froglegs Jackson: Over/Under: 154.5 game season this upcoming year?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, that’s pretty much the perfect o/u number.

Guest: do you think yordan alvarez’s lack of a platoon disadvantage is sustainable?

Kevin Goldstein: I do.

matt: Do fans overrate the importance of organization rankings? It seems not uncommon for prospects to bust or guys unexpectedly develop

Kevin Goldstein: They do. They’re fun doing them, but yeah, they do. Nobody gets an award for having the best system or “winning the off-season.”

Johnny: For players who go by their middle names or a nicknames, are transactions technically done with their full name? Like when the Astros submitted the trade to the league office, was it submitted for Donald Greinke?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s all done in an internal MLB system called eBIS. You don’t enter the name as much as you just click on it.

Jason: Have players you’ve been scouting ever come and asked you for your observations/thoughts regarding mechanics, tipping pitches, or anything really?

Kevin Goldstein: Not about that in particular, but I’ve definitely talked to players after games. Good to look them in the eye and see how they conduct themselves.

Joe: What is an 80 grade JRPG?

Kevin Goldstein: Xenogears.

Sad in Oakland: has the ship sailed on AJPuk, starter or dominant backend reliever?

Kevin Goldstein: Don’t know if it’s sailed, but it’s definitely charting a course…

KB: Some people don’t have anything better to do than to troll. They’re jealous that your life is more interesting than theirs. Don’t worry about it. The vast majority of us enjoy your insight and don’t give a rip about the other stuff.

Kevin Goldstein: It’s fine. And feel free to give a rip about the other stuff! I do. Based on the patterns here, these people also seem to be upset that I answered a question last week supporting a non-binary person.

NotAA: I know you aren’t a football fan but will you be watching the national championship tonight?

Kevin Goldstein: I haven’t watched a second of college football in years. I can’t name a player on either team. I do know who is playing, and I think Athens, GA is cool as hell, so go Georgia? (No, I won’t watch a second of it).

Guest: Does Miggy have any intangible clubhouse value?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh yeah.

matt: Front offices seem to be getting more homogenized–Ivy League, quant types. Assuming this is true, is this the most efficient way to win? Or is there some sort of inefficiency in this approach or other inefficiency out there waiting to be exploited?

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely an inefficiency in this approach, and one to be exploited. I think the best decisions are made with input from a variety of lenses. I want to hear from scouts, analysts, coaches and developmental people and folks with all kind of backgrounds. Homogeny is bad for decision making.

Sean: Kevin – Just wanted to let you know that I am starting chemo today and have an 8 hour session.  Your 1-2 hour chat is going to really help pass the time and create a fun distraction.  Thanks for all you do and Go M’s!

Kevin Goldstein: Forget the Ms, GO SEAN.

Pat: Well, does eBIS say Donald Greinke or Zack Greinke? How do players get their preferred name into eBIS if it’s the latter? Is there some sort of form they fill out in spring training or something listing what name they want to use?

Kevin Goldstein: Pretty such it says Zack. It goes by the players name as listed on the roster (as defined by the player) and obviously there’s a field in the DB for given full name.

Kevin Goldstein: This is weirdly specific!

Appa Yip Yip: How often do free agents ask about the minor league system when signing with a team? I’d imagine one year players don’t care, but do the guys signing 4, 5, 6 year deals get into the weeds about that stuff?

Kevin Goldstein: A little bit. Sometimes Triple-A team location can be a VERY important factor for veteran minor league FAs.

matt: How much do free agents consider state taxes (or lack thereof) in free agency decisions? How much do they care about maximizing their income compared to maximizing the number of dollars in the headline announcing their signing?

Kevin Goldstein: The definitely care, as California teams (double-digit state tax) and Texas teams (no state tax) can make pretty different offers that mean the same take home pay.

Bibliophile: What books do you have on deck to read for 2022?

Kevin Goldstein: I got the Tom Sharpling book for Xmas, looking forward to that.

matt: Assuming the lockout lasts into spring training (or later), will the media pay any more attention to college baseball?

Kevin Goldstein: I doubt it.

KB: How many true 80 outfield arms have you seen? Jeff Francoeur and who else?

Kevin Goldstein: I bet I could get into double-digits. Jose Guillen, Ichiro, Alex Ochoa, etc.

Mickey: If there’s no relationship between high vaccination rates (eg. NBA and NHL), and a reduction in infections, why would the MLB try to push a mandate on players?

Kevin Goldstein: If it’s this bad in those two sports, wouldn’t it be worse with a lower vac rate?

Oliver: Hi Kevin. I’m so grateful to hear your podcasts and read your chats after so many years without. This must be an especially tough year to get a read on players at the lower levels, perhaps none moreso than unheralded IFAs like Manuel Sequera who didn’t get pro reps for over a year after signing. Despite his defensive limitations, suspect hit tool and being physically maxed out, you still seem optimistic that he could emerge as a productive player. What did you learn about him after a limited sample that should help sustain last year’s production against more advanced competition? Does he have traits that boost his chances of reaching his ceiling?

Kevin Goldstein: Eric and I both talked to people who had seen him, and it helped us feel better about him. It’s all about getting dope from people who have better info than what you have. Heard a lot of good things.

Owners: If a soccer-team owning oil sheik or oligarch decided to buy a baseball team and spend whatever it took to dominate, how would other teams respond at the ownership and FO levels?

Kevin Goldstein: Fun quesiton. Cohen might be test case here….

Matt: How much would a starter be worth if he only had 10 games started, but threw a no-hitter every time?

Kevin Goldstein: Another fun question. Can I pick the ten games? Can someone calculate the way on these 90 innings?

Erik: I’ve always thought that Eye is a significantly more important tool than Arm. Would separating Eye from Hit (where I assume it’s currently included) and lumping Arm in with Fielding leading to a more useful set of five tools, or is the standard setup best for reasons I don’t understand?

Kevin Goldstein: The standard setting is what it is, but it’s not like teams treat them equally. Teams understand what’s important and what’s not.

Tel: Hi Kevin, like me you probably got tired of the questions about teams circumventing the rules to contact free agents about contracts during the strike.  But a couple of weeks ago I read an article where the Yankees claimed to have no idea about the status of their rehabbing players.  Is there really no way for a team to find out how their injured players are doing?  I suppose HIPPAA might prevent them from asking the doctors directly, but it seems like a team would find a way to make sure an injured player has all the help he needs.

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, it’s actually a real point of frustration right now. Team employees can NOT contact players, so that means that a team’s strength and conditioning folks, or rehab coordinator can’t get in touch, and that’s really crappy. The only kinda loophole is that most team doctor’s are not team employees, they’re contractors with a private practice, so they can (I’m pretty sure).

Clu Heywood: Do you know if teams do much game theory work when it comes to specific pitcher/batter matchups? Is there anything available publicly about it?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve never seen anything public about it, but I do know of a few teams that definitely incorporate game theory into their advance stuff.

Martin: I get that clubhouses are probably more on the Schilling side of politics than I’m entirely comfortable with, but i’m curious what the front offices are like? A diverse collection of viewpoints? Or were you in the minority, as a person with a more progressive worldview, and politics just stayed out of the workplace? Was it uncomfortable for you, professionally, to skip a White House visit or not a big deal?

Kevin Goldstein: Front offices are pretty diverse, but much like the rest of the country, the higher up the chain tends to get more conservative, but it’s hardly universal. It wasn’t uncomfortable for me to pass on the White House invitation, and nothing was ever made of my decision to do so.

daro: So let’s say that Dalbec improvements in the 2nd half are real. What will the Red Sox do with Casas? Try him in LF? Move Dalbec to LF? Or will they just platoon them?

Kevin Goldstein: When you talk about these “problems” that might happen, you don’t put too much work into them until you really have that. So many things can happen between now and this being a “problem” and if you end up with too many good players, it’s never really a problem.

NotAA: I know you’ve said before you don’t care if a guy goes to church or helps old ladys across the street but is that kind of thing any added bonus?

Kevin Goldstein: Not in my mind.

The Oberamtmann: I wish people would stop saying the vaccine doesn’t affect infection rates. You are absolutely less likely to get omicron if you are vaccinated. It just doesn’t seem that way because it is so virulent. The vaccination also vastly reduces the changes of significant illness. One would think sports front offices would be investing in saving their players’ lungs.

Kevin Goldstein: What they said.

Phil: Do you have general thoughts about the trajectory of prospect buzz? It’s always weird to me when a prospect seems to get “better” (in the collective mind of the internet) over the winter–is there genuine new information that emerges, or is this just a kind self-propelled buzz inertia? Thinking about Mayer somewhat, but also others from years past.

Kevin Goldstein: I think most buzz has some kind of real reason behind it, I guess I just wish people were more realistic about the wildly varying outcomes, even for the top prospects.

Steve: Curious if front offices use external web sources like Fangraphs to supplement their own research.  If they do, are there a couple that were the most widely used?

Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely they do. FanGraphs is very high on many FO reading lists.

Moog Powell: Al Avila has made some (from the outside) seemingly significant changes to the Detroit’s front office in the past couple years. Between bringing in guys who had been working in FOs such as the Dodgers (i.e. Ryan Garko) and organizations like Driveline (a la Max Gordon), do you see this as something that can have a significant positive change for Detroit’s minor league development or is this simply noise that will take a while if ever to have any impact?

Kevin Goldstein: I think the Detroit FO is quite good actually and seems to have a very different perspective from the outside as opposed to reality.

Kevin Goldstein: Really weird to see the one person coming at me hard in the chat also going off on pedophiles to go along with anti-vax rants. Or not . . .

matt: What are front office employees doing right now? Is there significantly less work due to the lockout? Are they just doing different things? Or is this always a slow period?

Kevin Goldstein: January is a slower than average month. Lots of teams doing draft prep/meetings, and I know of a few teams that have put a lot of effort into PD. There’s always stuff team’s feel behind on, and this is offering some time to catch up, honestly.

Lorenzo: Who is generally involved in deciding when a player gets promoted in the minors?

Kevin Goldstein: Player development leads the charge, but hopefully with input from scouts/coaches/analysts, the whole crew, really.

171: Any results aside, how do you think Elias and Sig have done turning the Orioles system around?

Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s bee slow, but everything is trending right…

Martin: When you’re traveling for work as a front office member, what’s the quality of travel like? Nice hotels, business class flights, large expense accounts for meals?

Kevin Goldstein: Marriotts, fly coach, but I did it so much and had so much status that I got upgraded about 20-25 percent of the time. $55/day per diem, some teams are a little higher.

Kevin Goldstein: The real luxury is the charter flights.

Dave: Hey Kevin, greatly appreciate your chats.  Do you have any insight to how the ChiSox plan to use Crochet this season?  Thanks

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know anything you don’t on this, but I’d use him as a bulk reliever.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok, entering the final stretch….

Phil: Do you find the tenor of the chats to be weirder and grouchier since the lockout started? I for one find myself with fewer questions given that there’s no actual news coming from my preferred team.

Kevin Goldstein: Not really. I looked closer and the people coming at me are just one person (same IP address), and really they’re the only grumpy one and clearly have all sorts of axes to grind, so happy I’m distracting them from something worse for 90 minutes. I keep getting lots of fun questions, so I’m going to keep doing them!

Clu Heywood: Do you play The Show or is that just too much baseball for you since it’s your day job?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t. I’ve watched Paul Sporer play it on Twitch, and it’s really kind of amazing looking, but I like to escape with video games, do I don’t really do sports games.

Mike: Does someone like Cohen just repurpose the revenue he receives into the team because he makes so much money elsewhere or is he writing the checks for Scherzer himself?

Kevin Goldstein: Hah. The Mets are writing the checks, but Cohen certainly has the right to fill that account with as much money as he wants.

Appa Yip Yip: Did you ever play Base Wars for the NES? With the baseball robots that fight with guns and swords? Realism in sports games is overrated.

Kevin Goldstein: Wow. YES I DID.

matt: Is there any chance that COVID reduces the urgency to resolve the lockout since the owners don’t necessarily want everyone congregating in Florida and Arizona in March for meaningless games during a pandemic?

Kevin Goldstein: I’ve honestly not considered this, but honestly, I don’t think the owners have either. Based on what we’ve seen from other sports, they just want to play and generate revenue.

Sonny: I’m struggling squaring catcher value with how their WAR is calculated. I know WAR is supposed to give a better baseline, but is added weight given to the fact that a 3 WAR catcher is harder to find than a 3 WAR 3B (you can’t move a SS or 2B to C they way you could to 3B). Do FOs weight that position even more than public facing metrics?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes they do.

RJ: I know you aren’t a fantasy sports guy but if you had to guess… your average fantasy baseball owner today does analytics on par with a GM from what decade?

Kevin Goldstein: mid-90s?

Erik: A lot of people seem to really love Sandy Alcantara, but I’m not quite there given his pedestrian strikeout numbers. Do you think his elite velo will see his K% jump into the high twenties this year or do you think there’s enough else there to add up to an ace even with roughly average K rates?

Kevin Goldstein: Everything was trending up in the second half of 2021 and I’d be pretty optimistic.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok folks, thanks for all the great questions (except for the one QAnon wacko) and for hanging out with me on a quiet Monday. See you next week!