2021 ZiPS Projections: Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batters

Is this all there is? I imagine nearly everyone asks themselves that existential question at some point in their lives, and it’s definitely one the current version of the Phillies inspires. The Phillies started rebuilding in late-2015 in the midst of their third consecutive losing season, and while that was arguably a bit late, they went about it in earnest. In one of his final pieces at ESPN, our friend Sam Miller explored the ins-and-outs of Philly’s process in detail. Long story short, the Phillies and Braves reworked their rosters over roughly the same time frame but the Braves made the playoffs in three consecutive seasons, while the Phillies are still looking for their first campaign over the .500 mark.

It would be one thing if this was a team on the upswing, but looking at the projected lineup, the roster more closely resembles a club at the end of a cycle of success, not one that’s still working on completing its remodel. For a team that’s had J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper in the lineup for two years, the overall results have been quite underwhelming. In terms of WAR, the team’s position players finished 16th in baseball in 2020, just behind the Royals. 2019 wasn’t much better, with the Phillies ranking 15th, and this has been the high water mark in recent years; going backwards from 2019, they’ve finished 22nd, 27th, 29th, and 29th. With Realmuto a free agent, the Phillies rank 21st in our Depth Charts, which, as a reminder, are Steamer-based until the ZiPS run is complete in a few weeks.

The farm system has not been very productive, leaving the Phillies to fill in the performance gaps with money rather than homegrown prospects. The problem is, that doesn’t seem likely to be an option right now. Their TV deal cash flow was keeping the organization afloat, but now the Phillies are parting with Realmuto because of the team’s financial situation. Whether they lost $120 million, $2 billion, eleventy trillion, or whatever other fictional number you can think of this season, the team opting not to spend may very well end the current core’s run without a single playoff appearance.

Sure, the Phillies could choose to spend that money elsewhere, but where could they spend it more efficiently than retaining Realmuto? He was third among catchers in WAR in 2020 and led baseball in that category in 2019. Now, our Depth Charts have Phillies catchers ranked 27th in baseball, and ZiPS isn’t going to change that. In a world where he hadn’t been on their roster the last two years, Realmuto would be an obvious free agency target for the Phillies. That ZiPS thinks High-A catcher Rodolfo Duran is the best catcher in the organization at this moment (based on his defense) is not a good sign for the franchise.

Given the Phillies’ lack of organizational depth, the team needs to add about 15 wins in free agency to be a serious threat to the Braves and Mets. If the season started today, ZiPS would have them something like five or six games behind the Nationals. Philadelphia needs better options at second, center, and catcher, and to be realistic contenders, likely needs to upgrade at shortstop or in left (arguably both).

On the plus side, Bryce Harper’s 151 wRC+ was his best in a season during which he stayed healthy since his 2015 MVP campaign. Harper isn’t the issue, though given his salary, he’ll likely get an unfair share of the blame if the Phillies struggle again in 2021. I’ve always been fascinated with the tendency many fans of disappointing teams have to blame those squads’ least disappointing parts; people literally believed that Alex Rodriguez held the Rangers back and that Barry Bonds was the problem with the mid-90s Giants.

The most encouraging projection here may actually be that of Alec Bohm. His .338/.400/.481 rookie line was enough to bump his 2021 projection up by a full win compared to how it looked a year ago.

Pitchers

As with the lineup, additional help is needed in the rotation to take the Phillies seriously. There’s little concern at the top, with Aaron Nola, who pitched a lot more like his 2018 self than the 2019 iteration, losing the extra walk per game he had picked up the season before. Arguably, Nola was even better, and with changes in strikeout rate becoming meaningful very quickly, a 20% bump compared to his best season so far is actually significant even in a 60-game season. The Phillies can retain Nola through 2023 thanks to a team option and ought to be talking extension soon unless they’re about to blow up the whole roster.

Behind Nola, things look more acceptable than World Series-caliber. Zack Wheeler is as solid a number-two as Nola is an ace, and Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez should at least give the team roughly league-average innings. Spencer Howard had decidedly mixed results in his debut and suffered some shoulder issues, but ZiPS thinks the home run rate was a bit of a fluke and projects averageish performance from him as well. The worry is what comes after the starting five. The team has precious few other pitchers you actually want to see start in meaningful games if you’re a Phillies fan, and the club would really benefit from one of the mid-rotation options available in free agency.

Over in the bullpen, only a single reliever projects with an ERA under four — Héctor Neris would almost certainly fall back into the closer role by default based on the current roster — but I expect the Phillies to actually make some moves here. And they better, as this bullpen clearly projects in the bottom-third in baseball, with Steamer no more optimistic than ZiPS.

The Phillies can still turn things around, but it’s going to require investing in the team. Hiring Joe Girardi didn’t fix anything, and firing general manager Matt Klentak won’t, either, unless it comes with a new organizational focus for real win-now moves. Based on early returns, I’m not banking on that outcome.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.