2021 ZiPS Projections: Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Batters

Is this all there is? I imagine nearly everyone asks themselves that existential question at some point in their lives, and it’s definitely one the current version of the Phillies inspires. The Phillies started rebuilding in late-2015 in the midst of their third consecutive losing season, and while that was arguably a bit late, they went about it in earnest. In one of his final pieces at ESPN, our friend Sam Miller explored the ins-and-outs of Philly’s process in detail. Long story short, the Phillies and Braves reworked their rosters over roughly the same time frame but the Braves made the playoffs in three consecutive seasons, while the Phillies are still looking for their first campaign over the .500 mark.

It would be one thing if this was a team on the upswing, but looking at the projected lineup, the roster more closely resembles a club at the end of a cycle of success, not one that’s still working on completing its remodel. For a team that’s had J.T. Realmuto and Bryce Harper in the lineup for two years, the overall results have been quite underwhelming. In terms of WAR, the team’s position players finished 16th in baseball in 2020, just behind the Royals. 2019 wasn’t much better, with the Phillies ranking 15th, and this has been the high water mark in recent years; going backwards from 2019, they’ve finished 22nd, 27th, 29th, and 29th. With Realmuto a free agent, the Phillies rank 21st in our Depth Charts, which, as a reminder, are Steamer-based until the ZiPS run is complete in a few weeks.

The farm system has not been very productive, leaving the Phillies to fill in the performance gaps with money rather than homegrown prospects. The problem is, that doesn’t seem likely to be an option right now. Their TV deal cash flow was keeping the organization afloat, but now the Phillies are parting with Realmuto because of the team’s financial situation. Whether they lost $120 million, $2 billion, eleventy trillion, or whatever other fictional number you can think of this season, the team opting not to spend may very well end the current core’s run without a single playoff appearance.

Sure, the Phillies could choose to spend that money elsewhere, but where could they spend it more efficiently than retaining Realmuto? He was third among catchers in WAR in 2020 and led baseball in that category in 2019. Now, our Depth Charts have Phillies catchers ranked 27th in baseball, and ZiPS isn’t going to change that. In a world where he hadn’t been on their roster the last two years, Realmuto would be an obvious free agency target for the Phillies. That ZiPS thinks High-A catcher Rodolfo Duran is the best catcher in the organization at this moment (based on his defense) is not a good sign for the franchise.

Given the Phillies’ lack of organizational depth, the team needs to add about 15 wins in free agency to be a serious threat to the Braves and Mets. If the season started today, ZiPS would have them something like five or six games behind the Nationals. Philadelphia needs better options at second, center, and catcher, and to be realistic contenders, likely needs to upgrade at shortstop or in left (arguably both).

On the plus side, Bryce Harper’s 151 wRC+ was his best in a season during which he stayed healthy since his 2015 MVP campaign. Harper isn’t the issue, though given his salary, he’ll likely get an unfair share of the blame if the Phillies struggle again in 2021. I’ve always been fascinated with the tendency many fans of disappointing teams have to blame those squads’ least disappointing parts; people literally believed that Alex Rodriguez held the Rangers back and that Barry Bonds was the problem with the mid-90s Giants.

The most encouraging projection here may actually be that of Alec Bohm. His .338/.400/.481 rookie line was enough to bump his 2021 projection up by a full win compared to how it looked a year ago.

Pitchers

As with the lineup, additional help is needed in the rotation to take the Phillies seriously. There’s little concern at the top, with Aaron Nola, who pitched a lot more like his 2018 self than the 2019 iteration, losing the extra walk per game he had picked up the season before. Arguably, Nola was even better, and with changes in strikeout rate becoming meaningful very quickly, a 20% bump compared to his best season so far is actually significant even in a 60-game season. The Phillies can retain Nola through 2023 thanks to a team option and ought to be talking extension soon unless they’re about to blow up the whole roster.

Behind Nola, things look more acceptable than World Series-caliber. Zack Wheeler is as solid a number-two as Nola is an ace, and Zach Eflin and Vince Velasquez should at least give the team roughly league-average innings. Spencer Howard had decidedly mixed results in his debut and suffered some shoulder issues, but ZiPS thinks the home run rate was a bit of a fluke and projects averageish performance from him as well. The worry is what comes after the starting five. The team has precious few other pitchers you actually want to see start in meaningful games if you’re a Phillies fan, and the club would really benefit from one of the mid-rotation options available in free agency.

Over in the bullpen, only a single reliever projects with an ERA under four — Héctor Neris would almost certainly fall back into the closer role by default based on the current roster — but I expect the Phillies to actually make some moves here. And they better, as this bullpen clearly projects in the bottom-third in baseball, with Steamer no more optimistic than ZiPS.

The Phillies can still turn things around, but it’s going to require investing in the team. Hiring Joe Girardi didn’t fix anything, and firing general manager Matt Klentak won’t, either, unless it comes with a new organizational focus for real win-now moves. Based on early returns, I’m not banking on that outcome.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Bryce Harper L 28 RF 629 510 100 132 29 2 34 116 108 154 14 4
J.T. Realmuto R 30 C 571 518 84 141 29 3 26 98 40 125 8 2
Rhys Hoskins R 28 1B 629 520 93 125 30 2 32 112 95 157 4 2
Alec Bohm R 24 3B 572 514 72 144 27 3 18 78 50 110 5 3
Didi Gregorius L 31 SS 522 480 73 132 23 3 22 91 30 68 5 3
Jean Segura R 31 2B 598 551 78 153 27 4 13 63 37 90 13 6
Andrew McCutchen R 34 LF 514 448 68 111 20 1 20 73 59 114 7 3
Odúbel Herrera L 29 CF 521 478 58 123 26 3 16 68 35 117 7 4
Rodolfo Duran R 23 C 360 343 39 78 13 1 14 49 14 96 0 0
Jay Bruce L 34 LF 370 340 43 79 17 2 20 67 27 91 1 0
Scott Kingery R 27 3B 508 467 60 107 25 3 16 53 31 142 10 3
Greg Bird L 28 1B 332 285 37 62 16 0 16 53 39 86 0 0
Nick Martini L 31 LF 441 389 50 98 17 3 7 42 46 96 3 1
Adam Haseley L 25 CF 462 415 50 103 19 2 9 52 33 105 5 3
Andrew Knapp B 29 C 242 203 24 47 10 1 5 24 34 69 0 0
Jonathan Lucroy R 35 C 380 344 36 86 14 2 8 49 28 56 1 0
Matt Szczur R 31 RF 200 176 25 41 9 1 5 23 20 42 1 2
Mikie Mahtook R 31 RF 461 418 53 94 14 3 19 65 34 131 8 4
Ronald Torreyes R 28 SS 322 305 34 77 13 2 5 27 10 37 2 1
Roman Quinn B 28 CF 270 246 31 55 8 4 5 22 18 85 22 3
Kyle Garlick R 29 RF 347 321 39 71 17 1 16 53 19 116 1 0
Phil Gosselin R 32 2B 360 325 39 74 15 2 6 35 30 87 1 2
Darick Hall L 25 1B 538 481 61 99 24 1 22 78 40 183 3 1
Luke Williams R 24 2B 519 468 56 99 20 3 12 50 39 142 20 10
T.J. Rivera R 32 3B 325 304 34 81 17 1 7 40 12 58 1 1
Neil Walker B 35 2B 339 302 37 70 13 1 8 37 31 77 1 0
Mickey Moniak L 23 CF 475 437 52 101 20 9 8 48 33 128 10 3
Austin Listi R 27 1B 504 446 56 98 18 2 16 62 45 133 1 2
Nick Maton L 24 SS 498 448 47 95 18 4 9 46 41 135 8 8
Simon Muzziotti L 22 CF 539 504 52 125 21 4 5 37 28 96 22 15
Jack Conley R 24 C 117 103 12 19 4 0 2 8 10 34 1 0
Arquímedes Gamboa B 23 SS 498 440 43 81 11 7 5 32 51 159 17 8
Rafael Marchan B 22 C 296 273 24 60 12 0 0 15 18 42 4 6
Daniel Brito L 23 2B 459 424 40 90 14 2 6 33 23 112 8 12
Henri Lartigue B 26 C 371 339 33 61 10 2 8 35 28 133 2 2
Josh Stephen L 23 LF 454 418 45 91 20 5 13 51 34 145 7 6
Jhailyn Ortiz R 22 RF 442 405 45 72 13 2 17 54 28 180 2 3
Cornelius Randolph L 24 LF 465 422 46 90 15 2 10 43 38 146 8 7

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Bryce Harper .259 .390 .524 139 .265 .304 7.6 -2 4.2 Bobby Higginson
J.T. Realmuto .272 .333 .490 114 .218 .313 6.1 4 4.1 Ivan Rodriguez
Rhys Hoskins .240 .366 .490 124 .250 .281 6.4 -1 3.2 Greg Vaughn
Alec Bohm .280 .344 .449 108 .169 .326 5.8 0 2.8 Buddy Bell
Didi Gregorius .275 .321 .473 106 .198 .282 5.6 1 2.6 Jack Wilson
Jean Segura .278 .327 .412 94 .134 .313 5.1 1 1.9 Mark Grudzielanek
Andrew McCutchen .248 .339 .431 102 .183 .290 5.3 -2 1.3 Gary Matthews
Odúbel Herrera .257 .313 .425 93 .167 .310 4.8 -2 1.3 Marlon Byrd
Rodolfo Duran .227 .258 .394 69 .166 .275 3.6 8 1.0 Robert Machado
Jay Bruce .232 .289 .471 96 .238 .258 4.8 1 0.8 Franklin Stubbs
Scott Kingery .229 .283 .398 78 .169 .294 4.0 2 0.7 Sean Berry
Greg Bird .218 .316 .442 98 .225 .251 4.8 -1 0.5 Les Wallin
Nick Martini .252 .333 .365 85 .113 .318 4.4 1 0.5 Rob Mackowiak
Adam Haseley .248 .312 .369 80 .120 .312 4.1 -2 0.4 Andre Ethier
Andrew Knapp .232 .346 .365 89 .133 .326 4.4 -5 0.4 Mike Fitzgerald
Jonathan Lucroy .250 .311 .372 80 .122 .279 4.2 -5 0.3 Tony Pena
Matt Szczur .233 .312 .381 82 .148 .279 4.0 2 0.2 Leonel Carrion
Mikie Mahtook .225 .289 .409 82 .184 .280 4.1 1 0.2 Nick Gorneault
Ronald Torreyes .252 .278 .357 67 .105 .274 3.6 1 0.1 Mario Diaz
Roman Quinn .224 .285 .350 67 .126 .321 4.1 -3 -0.1 Herm Winningham
Kyle Garlick .221 .274 .430 82 .209 .291 4.1 -1 -0.1 Scott Coolbaugh 쿨바
Phil Gosselin .228 .292 .342 67 .114 .293 3.4 0 -0.1 Andrew Beattie
Darick Hall .206 .284 .397 78 .191 .279 3.9 3 -0.1 Tom Forrester
Luke Williams .212 .279 .344 64 .132 .277 3.3 2 -0.1 Andy Fox
T.J. Rivera .266 .302 .398 84 .132 .310 4.4 -7 -0.2 Garth Iorg
Neil Walker .232 .307 .361 76 .129 .286 3.9 -6 -0.2 Ron Oester
Mickey Moniak .231 .285 .373 72 .142 .309 3.8 -5 -0.3 Todd Dunwoody
Austin Listi .220 .300 .377 78 .157 .276 3.8 0 -0.4 Matt Bowser
Nick Maton .212 .280 .330 61 .118 .283 3.0 0 -0.4 Brandon Cromer
Simon Muzziotti .248 .288 .335 65 .087 .298 3.3 1 -0.4 Leo Garcia
Jack Conley .184 .267 .282 46 .097 .254 2.6 -3 -0.5 J.C. Boscan
Arquímedes Gamboa .184 .271 .275 45 .091 .275 2.5 5 -0.6 Anderson Machado
Rafael Marchan .220 .274 .264 44 .044 .260 2.2 2 -0.7 Michel Hernandez
Daniel Brito .212 .257 .297 47 .085 .275 2.2 6 -1.1 Mark Farris
Henri Lartigue .180 .246 .292 42 .112 .268 2.3 -1 -1.2 Francisco Morales
Josh Stephen .218 .278 .383 72 .165 .300 3.5 -9 -1.5 Chris Lubanski
Jhailyn Ortiz .178 .240 .346 52 .168 .264 2.6 0 -1.7 Corey Jenkins
Cornelius Randolph .213 .280 .329 61 .116 .301 3.0 -7 -1.9 Ntema Ndungidi

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Aaron Nola R 28 13 8 3.56 31 31 187.3 156 74 24 60 219 3.56
Zack Wheeler R 31 10 7 4.14 28 28 171.7 166 79 24 48 161 4.08
Zach Eflin R 27 11 9 4.59 29 27 151.0 154 77 26 42 143 4.48
Vince Velasquez R 29 7 6 4.51 28 23 117.7 111 59 21 44 139 4.41
Jake Arrieta R 35 8 8 4.80 21 21 114.3 120 61 20 41 95 5.03
David Robertson R 36 5 3 3.23 47 0 47.3 35 17 5 21 65 3.20
Ranger Suárez L 25 5 5 4.55 33 12 91.0 94 46 12 30 76 4.34
Spencer Howard R 24 5 4 4.72 19 19 80.0 77 42 14 31 86 4.62
Seranthony Domínguez R 26 4 2 3.56 48 0 48.0 37 19 5 23 63 3.53
Colton Eastman R 24 8 8 5.17 23 19 116.7 120 67 24 46 114 5.26
Héctor Neris R 32 5 3 3.98 64 0 61.0 52 27 10 24 77 4.16
Cristopher Sánchez L 24 3 3 4.90 27 13 79.0 81 43 10 39 66 4.83
Bailey Falter L 24 7 7 5.06 16 16 83.7 92 47 17 19 69 5.00
Damon Jones L 26 5 5 5.19 24 22 100.7 93 58 13 76 105 5.25
David Parkinson L 25 8 8 5.23 22 22 106.7 106 62 20 48 109 5.09
Brandon Workman R 32 5 4 4.05 59 0 60.0 48 27 10 31 76 4.41
Deolis Guerra R 32 4 3 3.91 38 1 48.3 44 21 7 15 57 3.82
Cole Irvin L 27 5 6 5.20 24 17 107.3 119 62 20 30 82 5.08
Tommy Hunter R 34 3 2 3.94 47 0 45.7 44 20 6 10 41 3.88
Connor Brogdon R 26 3 3 4.30 41 2 58.7 49 28 10 28 78 4.32
David Hale 헤일 R 33 3 2 4.66 20 5 58.0 63 30 9 17 42 4.78
David Phelps R 34 5 3 4.09 48 1 44.0 39 20 7 17 52 4.11
Jose Alvarez L 32 3 2 4.15 56 1 47.7 47 22 6 17 42 4.19
Blake Parker R 36 3 2 4.32 51 1 50.0 44 24 9 19 60 4.38
Enyel De Los Santos R 25 6 7 5.42 26 21 109.7 114 66 22 47 102 5.35
Ramón Rosso R 25 5 6 5.38 23 19 97.0 98 58 19 48 95 5.44
Trevor Bettencourt R 26 3 3 4.19 31 0 43.0 39 20 7 15 49 4.20
JoJo Romero L 24 5 5 5.40 25 17 85.0 91 51 15 40 74 5.36
Tyler Carr R 25 5 4 4.55 40 1 63.3 60 32 8 34 62 4.62
Vìctor Arano R 26 3 2 4.35 49 0 49.7 45 24 8 21 58 4.27
Julian Garcia R 26 7 8 5.49 24 19 103.3 106 63 19 53 96 5.45
Francisco Liriano L 37 3 3 4.42 56 0 55.0 49 27 7 30 57 4.51
Adam Morgan L 31 2 2 4.30 51 0 37.7 35 18 5 16 40 4.14
Jakob Hernandez L 25 3 3 4.68 49 1 65.3 59 34 9 38 74 4.63
Mauricio Llovera R 25 4 4 5.53 16 14 71.7 74 44 15 34 72 5.48
Bud Norris R 36 3 3 4.50 43 0 38.0 35 19 6 17 45 4.36
Ian Hamilton R 26 3 3 4.57 36 0 43.3 42 22 7 15 40 4.68
Anthony Swarzak 스와잭 R 35 3 3 4.63 49 0 46.7 43 24 7 21 50 4.40
Jeff Singer L 27 4 3 4.79 45 0 56.3 50 30 8 35 64 4.78
Heath Hembree R 32 2 2 4.81 53 0 48.7 47 26 10 21 57 4.93
Drew Storen R 33 3 3 4.85 42 0 39.0 40 21 6 16 35 5.08
Grant Dyer R 25 3 3 4.92 42 0 53.0 55 29 9 19 49 4.78
Reggie McClain R 28 5 6 5.70 28 12 90.0 106 57 18 31 61 5.62
Joel Cesar R 25 3 3 5.20 34 1 45.0 45 26 7 28 41 5.45
JD Hammer R 26 3 3 5.13 36 0 40.3 38 23 7 22 42 5.21
Adonis Medina R 24 5 6 5.92 17 16 79.0 87 52 16 39 63 5.85
Garrett Cleavinger L 27 2 2 5.22 28 0 39.7 35 23 5 33 44 5.25
Kyle Dohy L 24 6 7 5.22 50 0 69.0 53 40 10 68 100 5.30
Jonathan Hennigan L 26 3 3 5.37 43 0 58.7 57 35 8 43 57 5.41
Johan Quezada R 26 3 4 6.32 24 0 37.0 40 26 6 27 27 6.26

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Aaron Nola 10.5 2.9 1.2 7.8% 28.4% .285 126 79 4.2 John Montefusco
Zack Wheeler 8.4 2.5 1.3 6.6% 22.2% .293 108 92 2.8 Willard Nixon
Zach Eflin 8.5 2.5 1.5 6.5% 22.2% .300 98 102 1.8 Mike Morgan
Vince Velasquez 10.6 3.4 1.6 8.7% 27.4% .303 100 100 1.4 Rick Rhoden
Jake Arrieta 7.5 3.2 1.6 8.2% 18.9% .294 94 107 1.1 Mel Harder
David Robertson 12.4 4.0 1.0 10.7% 33.2% .288 139 72 0.9 Jeff Nelson
Ranger Suárez 7.5 3.0 1.2 7.6% 19.3% .301 99 101 0.8 Mike Caldwell
Spencer Howard 9.7 3.5 1.6 8.9% 24.8% .297 95 105 0.8 Roger McDowell
Seranthony Domínguez 11.8 4.3 0.9 11.3% 30.9% .291 126 79 0.7 Brian Wilson
Colton Eastman 8.8 3.5 1.9 8.9% 22.1% .296 87 115 0.7 Jake Westbrook
Héctor Neris 11.4 3.5 1.5 9.3% 29.7% .292 113 89 0.6 Cory Bailey
Cristopher Sánchez 7.5 4.4 1.1 11.0% 18.5% .301 92 109 0.6 Chris Short
Bailey Falter 7.4 2.0 1.8 5.3% 19.2% .299 89 113 0.6 Bobby Livingston
Damon Jones 9.4 6.8 1.2 16.1% 22.3% .296 87 115 0.6 Bill Wight
David Parkinson 9.2 4.1 1.7 10.1% 23.0% .297 86 116 0.6 John Daniels
Brandon Workman 11.4 4.7 1.5 12.1% 29.7% .275 111 90 0.6 Turk Wendell
Deolis Guerra 10.6 2.8 1.3 7.4% 27.9% .303 115 87 0.5 Chad Bradford
Cole Irvin 6.9 2.5 1.7 6.4% 17.5% .299 86 116 0.5 Wade Blasingame
Tommy Hunter 8.1 2.0 1.2 5.3% 21.6% .290 114 88 0.5 Bob Locker
Connor Brogdon 12.0 4.3 1.5 11.1% 30.8% .291 105 96 0.4 Murry Dickson
David Hale 6.5 2.6 1.4 6.7% 16.6% .297 96 104 0.4 Clint Brown
David Phelps 10.6 3.5 1.4 9.1% 28.0% .294 110 91 0.4 Roger McDowell
Jose Alvarez 7.9 3.2 1.1 8.3% 20.5% .295 108 92 0.4 Dave Tomlin
Blake Parker 10.8 3.4 1.6 9.0% 28.3% .287 104 96 0.3 Jim Corsi
Enyel De Los Santos 8.4 3.9 1.8 9.7% 20.9% .296 83 121 0.3 Jake Joseph
Ramón Rosso 8.8 4.5 1.8 11.0% 21.8% .295 83 120 0.3 Allen Edwards
Trevor Bettencourt 10.3 3.1 1.5 8.2% 26.9% .294 107 93 0.3 David Wilhelmi
JoJo Romero 7.8 4.2 1.6 10.4% 19.2% .303 83 120 0.2 Jake Chapman
Tyler Carr 8.8 4.8 1.1 12.0% 21.9% .295 99 101 0.2 Gary Ross
Vìctor Arano 10.5 3.8 1.4 9.9% 27.2% .296 103 97 0.2 Jerry Reed
Julian Garcia 8.4 4.6 1.7 11.3% 20.5% .296 82 122 0.2 Tim Byron
Francisco Liriano 9.3 4.9 1.1 12.4% 23.6% .288 102 98 0.2 Joe Gibbon
Adam Morgan 9.6 3.8 1.2 9.8% 24.5% .297 104 96 0.2 Tippy Martinez
Jakob Hernandez 10.2 5.2 1.2 13.0% 25.3% .298 96 104 0.1 Pete Cappadona
Mauricio Llovera 9.0 4.3 1.9 10.6% 22.4% .299 81 123 0.1 Ronnie Ray
Bud Norris 10.7 4.0 1.4 10.2% 27.1% .302 100 100 0.1 Mike Fetters
Ian Hamilton 8.3 3.1 1.5 8.0% 21.4% .287 98 102 0.1 Virgil Barnes
Anthony Swarzak 9.6 4.1 1.4 10.4% 24.8% .293 97 103 0.1 Greg Minton
Jeff Singer 10.2 5.6 1.3 13.8% 25.3% .294 94 107 0.0 Matt Dunbar
Heath Hembree 10.5 3.9 1.8 9.9% 26.8% .301 93 107 0.0 Dan Kolb
Drew Storen 8.1 3.7 1.4 9.1% 19.9% .301 93 108 0.0 Milo Candini
Grant Dyer 8.3 3.2 1.5 8.2% 21.1% .303 91 110 -0.1 Rocky Childress
Reggie McClain 6.1 3.1 1.8 7.7% 15.1% .303 79 127 -0.1 Jeff Farnsworth
Joel Cesar 8.2 5.6 1.4 13.5% 19.7% .295 86 116 -0.1 Ken Wright
JD Hammer 9.4 4.9 1.6 12.2% 23.2% .290 88 114 -0.2 Casey Hoorelbeke
Adonis Medina 7.2 4.4 1.8 10.8% 17.5% .297 76 132 -0.2 Jake Joseph
Garrett Cleavinger 10.0 7.5 1.1 17.7% 23.7% .294 86 116 -0.2 Jim Roland
Kyle Dohy 13.0 8.9 1.3 20.7% 30.5% .295 86 116 -0.3 Scott Wiggins
Jonathan Hennigan 8.7 6.6 1.2 15.6% 20.7% .299 84 120 -0.4 Brian Adams
Johan Quezada 6.6 6.6 1.5 15.2% 15.2% .296 71 141 -0.6 Tom Dukes

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Andy
Member
Andy

Yeah, the point here is that even with Realmuto (and Gregorius, and McCutchen, and Segura, and Jay Bruce, and a great year from Harper, and a great debut from Bohm, and a bounceback year from Hoskins) this team didnt have the OFFENSE it needed to win.

bglick4
Member
bglick4

It’s kind of rough on Klentak. He made the Harper and Realmuto moves when it looked to most everyone that the core they had was strong. It’s hard to have predicted that, outside of Nola and to some extent, Hoskins, that core would completely crash. The crazy Santana signing and subsequent trade though, is all his.

Though, I think this team’s example reassures me as a fan of a rebuilding team, that patience is important. If the Phillies had waited a bit to go all in, they’d be entering this offseason with Sanchez in their rotation, Crawford at short, and plenty of money to sign Realmuto. There’d be a lot more reason for optimism.

sadtrombone
Member
Member
sadtrombone

Arrieta was kind of silly too.

The big problem, as someone pointed out in the comments the other day, is that the Phillies under Klentak have done a really bad job acquiring and developing amateur talent. Bohm looks good and Spencer Howard might be something, but they have inherited everyone else or acquired them from elsewhere. That’s two good picks in the first three rounds in three years. The other guys there are Moniak, Adam Haseley, Kevin Gowdy, Cole Stobbe, Connor Seabold, and two picks they lost when they signed Arrieta and Santana.

They made some good veteran acquisitions after the Arrieta and Santana debacle of an offseason, but it’s almost impossible to build sustainable success through big-ticket free agents.

Tanned Tom
Member
Tanned Tom

The Yankees have done it for 25 straight years now.

Ryan119
Member
Member
Ryan119

I mean they finished 28-32 with a bullpen ERA above 7. And they had 14 blown saves in a 60 game season. Blaming this on the OFFENSE is insane.