ZiPS 2021 Projections: Boston Red Sox

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox.

Batters

The Red Sox took a great deal of heat for the zeal with which they traded Mookie Betts last offseason, practically advertising to the world their intent to deal him as if it were a point of pride. When was the last time you saw a restaurant send out a press release announcing that their food was going to get worse? However you feel about the wisdom of the trade, it was a significant short-term downgrade for a team that had nearly fallen off the proverbial cliff in 2019. As a bizarre silver lining, Boston struggled so much in 2020 that, even in a 16-team playoff, it seems unlikely that they would have made the playoffs if they had retained Betts. He wasn’t five wins better than his replacements, after all.

While Boston finished the season in last place in the AL East, even looking up at the Orioles, the offense didn’t really have a lot to do with that bleak result. Ranking 12th in baseball in wRC+ and 11th in overall runs scored doesn’t exactly reek of awesomeness, but it’s at least respectable, something .400 teams aren’t particularly known for. Nor was there a dramatic drop-off in Boston’s very ordinary defense. Some things did go right, but certainly not everything:

There’s a lot of work to do, and it’s unclear if Boston has the ability to do it quickly. Moving a year of Betts wasn’t enough to restock the farm system single-trade-edly, and there isn’t a lot of immediate help for the lineup in the minors. Alex Verdugo’s fine, but even if we assumed that he was a one-for-one replacement for Mookie — he’s not, of course — Boston faces the prospect of replacing Jackie Bradley Jr., and perhaps both Martinez and Benintendi on top of that. ZiPS is still projecting a bounce for both players, but that’s far from a guarantee, and the projected comebacks aren’t star-level.

Hunter Renfroe is unlikely to be the savior in this regard. Yes, I’ve seen the pretty home run overlays that show a bunch of Renfroe outs becoming homers in Fenway, but that kind of exercise is highly misleading. You can do that and get similar results for most right-handed sluggers due to the park dimensions, but if it actually worked that way in practice, you’d see significant batter-friendly park statistics for righties. Fact is, Fenway hasn’t been a huge haven for right-handed hitters for something like 35 years now.

ZiPS remains optimistic about Devers despite a 2020 season that can fairly be classified as a disappointment. His contact numbers regressed, but they don’t reflect a broken approach at the plate, and it’s important to remember he was just 23 last season. If you wiped out his statistical record prior to 2020 and pretended that this was his rookie season, you’d likely be at least somewhat satisfied with his moderately successful debut. That he was a legitimate superstar in 2019 shouldn’t make your feelings worse!

Has Xander Bogaerts become the most underrated shortstop in baseball? Short season or not, we have another datapoint suggesting that his 2018 offensive improvement represents a new baseline rather than a blip, but with the Red Sox struggling, that’s gotten lost in a league with an unreal number of extremely talented young shortstops. Bogaerts is slowly building his Hall of Fame case and still projects as a .277/.343/.474 hitter in 2026. 2,500 hits and over 350 homers, as ZiPS is currently projecting, ought to be enough to get him to Cooperstown.

First base looks like a serious weakness, but I fully expect Mitch Moreland to show up in the spring, and for the Red Sox to assume that someone in the front office must have signed him for a year at $4 million or something.

Pitchers

ZiPS is a bit grumpier than Steamer when it comes to Boston’s pitching by just under two wins, enough to drop Boston’s rotation into the bottom-third of baseball. On the other hand, considering the Red Sox starting five finished 30th out of 30 in WAR in 2020, that could be considered a triumph.

Well, maybe not, but the starting pitching will struggle to, well, struggle as much as they did in 2019. The team won’t have Chris Sale for the entire season, but it seems likely that they’ll get his services back sometimes in the summer, a definite improvement over the zero innings they got from him in 2020. As difficult as Sale’s loss was, don’t forget that Boston also lost Eduardo Rodriguez, who had a solid case for being the team’s most valuable pitcher in 2019. Based on WAR, the Red Sox lost seven wins before the season even started due to those two players’ injuries, and even a team trying in good faith to win would have had tremendous difficulty replacing them with no advanced notice.

One big thing separating Steamer from ZiPS is the very different projections each has for Nathan Eovaldi. I’m personally closer to Steamer than ZiPS in this fight; Eovaldi got his walks back under control, and I don’t think ZiPS is compensating enough for his injury interruptions in 2019 as a mitigating factor. But hey, if I agreed with every projection, I could just write down my personal feelings rather than run algorithms, couldn’t I?

Where Steamer and ZiPS do broadly agree is the bullpen, with the WAR differences coming down to the fact that ZiPS uses leverage index in its projections. Both systems see a solid Matt Barnes, three more solid, middle-of-the-road relievers in Ryan Brasier, Josh Taylor, and Darwinzon Hernandez, and a whole lot more question marks.

What the Red Sox do really depends on where their organizational priorities actually land this winter. The team hasn’t really telegraphed how steep this retooling process will be. The Red Sox need to add quite a lot this offseason, but they’ve given little indication that they’re any more willing to bust through the luxury tax threshold that they were last year, even after resetting the penalty in 2020. As it stands now, our estimate is that, including player benefits, they’re already at $177 million for 2021. Relief pitching is likely to be relatively inexpensive, so I can see some additions there, but starting pitching won’t be, and the team needs more outfield depth, too.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Xander Bogaerts R 28 SS 639 572 95 165 38 2 27 94 60 116 13 1
Rafael Devers L 24 3B 675 624 102 179 44 3 32 112 45 146 5 4
Christian Vazquez R 30 C 467 432 54 115 22 1 15 51 30 90 7 4
Alex Verdugo L 25 RF 534 484 69 141 32 2 14 51 43 87 8 2
J.D. Martinez R 33 DH 581 515 75 136 30 2 27 86 58 143 3 0
Andrew Benintendi L 26 LF 583 501 73 127 31 4 14 64 69 129 13 5
Jackie Bradley Jr. L 31 CF 525 464 66 112 26 2 17 57 48 132 10 4
Hunter Renfroe R 29 RF 462 420 56 97 25 1 26 81 34 130 5 0
Bobby Dalbec R 26 1B 502 442 59 97 19 1 26 63 48 197 3 4
Kevin Plawecki R 30 C 311 279 30 74 17 2 6 41 23 54 1 1
César Puello R 30 CF 337 293 37 74 13 1 7 37 26 84 5 2
Christian Arroyo R 26 3B 296 272 34 71 16 1 10 42 19 62 2 1
Yairo Muñoz R 26 SS 410 387 47 107 26 2 11 48 18 92 12 4
Jeter Downs R 22 SS 575 517 68 118 32 4 19 72 47 147 22 11
Michael Chavis R 25 2B 465 427 54 100 21 3 20 64 30 145 5 0
Jarren Duran L 24 CF 567 527 59 141 22 8 5 39 31 125 33 11
Michael Gettys R 25 CF 533 494 63 105 25 6 18 72 31 204 14 7
Ryder Jones L 27 3B 469 430 50 101 24 3 13 56 30 123 3 1
Deivy Grullón R 25 C 438 394 46 93 21 0 15 60 39 152 1 0
Jhonny Pereda R 25 C 455 407 43 95 16 1 5 35 44 84 2 2
Joey Meneses R 29 1B 480 443 52 115 22 1 12 53 33 114 0 0
John Andreoli R 31 LF 471 409 51 86 20 3 9 41 55 143 12 4
Chad De La Guerra L 28 SS 403 369 44 83 18 2 12 42 28 120 4 2
Rusney Castillo R 33 RF 471 448 50 121 25 1 9 44 17 72 7 6
Hudson Potts R 22 3B 537 496 58 112 27 2 16 65 33 167 4 1
Triston Casas L 21 1B 540 488 62 107 25 4 22 70 43 170 4 3
Dustin Pedroia R 37 2B 356 326 37 82 13 0 4 31 27 46 1 2
Roldani Baldwin R 25 C 241 228 23 50 13 0 6 26 9 62 1 0
Tommy Joseph 조셉 R 29 1B 430 397 45 96 24 0 17 63 24 102 0 0
Jett Bandy R 31 C 302 276 29 56 13 0 10 31 15 79 1 1
Connor Wong R 25 C 464 428 49 93 21 3 14 53 28 169 8 4
C.J. Chatham R 26 SS 513 486 45 123 23 2 5 37 18 115 6 3
Josh Ockimey L 25 1B 495 427 57 88 21 2 18 54 61 180 0 2
Jonathan Araúz B 22 SS 487 448 48 101 22 3 10 48 35 111 5 5
Juan Centeno L 31 C 325 298 29 72 14 1 3 25 18 56 2 0
Johan Mieses R 25 RF 497 454 52 91 19 2 18 54 33 158 3 1
Marcus Wilson R 24 CF 493 445 53 92 23 2 15 51 40 184 11 6
Garrett Benge L 25 3B 385 348 35 69 14 1 5 26 34 134 5 5
Jeisson Rosario L 21 CF 561 484 61 107 19 6 5 37 68 151 11 8
Ryan Fitzgerald L 27 SS 492 452 45 98 17 4 5 37 33 141 6 7
Brett Netzer L 25 2B 520 478 45 100 22 2 6 37 32 158 3 6
Marco Hernandez L 28 2B 368 350 38 85 18 1 4 25 12 84 4 4
Pedro Castellanos R 23 1B 531 501 54 123 24 2 10 51 17 96 9 9

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Xander Bogaerts .288 .357 .503 125 .215 .322 7.0 -5 4.1 Alan Trammell
Rafael Devers .287 .338 .521 123 .234 .330 6.6 -7 3.3 Ryan Zimmerman
Christian Vazquez .266 .315 .426 94 .160 .306 4.9 7 2.3 Dan Wilson
Alex Verdugo .291 .350 .452 111 .161 .332 6.1 3 2.2 Ryan Sweeney
J.D. Martinez .264 .339 .487 116 .223 .316 6.1 0 1.9 Geronimo Berroa 베로아
Andrew Benintendi .253 .347 .415 101 .162 .316 5.3 2 1.6 Stu Pederson
Jackie Bradley Jr. .241 .323 .416 94 .175 .302 4.8 2 1.5 Brian Lesher
Hunter Renfroe .231 .292 .481 100 .250 .269 5.1 4 1.3 Darryl Motley
Bobby Dalbec .219 .307 .443 96 .224 .324 4.6 6 1.0 Nate Rolison
Kevin Plawecki .265 .334 .405 95 .140 .311 4.9 -1 1.0 Charlie Berry
César Puello .253 .338 .375 90 .123 .332 4.6 2 1.0 Armando Rios
Christian Arroyo .261 .315 .438 97 .176 .305 5.0 1 1.0 Jose Vidro
Yairo Muñoz .276 .312 .439 96 .163 .338 5.2 -5 0.9 Fred Manrique
Jeter Downs .228 .298 .416 87 .188 .282 4.3 -6 0.7 Sean Rodríguez
Michael Chavis .234 .292 .438 90 .204 .305 4.6 -5 0.5 Erick Almonte
Jarren Duran .268 .313 .368 80 .101 .343 4.5 -2 0.5 Luis Polonia
Michael Gettys .213 .263 .397 72 .184 .320 3.6 7 0.5 Fred Lewis
Ryder Jones .235 .292 .395 80 .160 .299 4.1 1 0.4 Mike Bell
Deivy Grullón .236 .306 .404 86 .168 .344 4.4 -9 0.3 Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jhonny Pereda .233 .309 .314 67 .081 .283 3.4 2 0.3 Tom Wieghaus
Joey Meneses .260 .311 .395 86 .135 .325 4.5 3 0.2 Alejandro Freire
John Andreoli .210 .306 .340 72 .130 .300 3.7 7 0.2 Adam Shabala
Chad De La Guerra .225 .284 .382 74 .157 .300 3.8 -2 0.1 Mike Neal
Rusney Castillo .270 .301 .391 82 .121 .305 4.2 3 0.0 Don Kolloway
Hudson Potts .226 .281 .385 74 .159 .307 3.8 -1 0.0 Matthew Brown
Triston Casas .219 .287 .422 85 .203 .287 4.1 2 0.0 Kevin Burns
Dustin Pedroia .252 .310 .328 70 .077 .283 3.6 0 -0.2 Ossie Bluege
Roldani Baldwin .219 .253 .355 59 .136 .275 3.2 1 -0.2 Jeff Winchester
Tommy Joseph .242 .291 .431 88 .189 .284 4.5 -2 -0.2 Nate Gold
Jett Bandy .203 .266 .359 64 .156 .246 3.2 -1 -0.2 Chad Moeller
Connor Wong .217 .272 .379 70 .161 .322 3.6 -5 -0.3 Troy Afenir
C.J. Chatham .253 .281 .340 64 .086 .322 3.5 0 -0.4 Tom Veryzer
Josh Ockimey .206 .307 .391 84 .185 .306 4.0 -2 -0.4 Jeff Bailey
Jonathan Araúz .225 .283 .355 68 .129 .278 3.4 -3 -0.4 Todd Carey
Juan Centeno .242 .292 .326 64 .084 .289 3.5 -6 -0.6 Randy Gomez
Johan Mieses .200 .264 .370 66 .170 .263 3.3 4 -0.7 Kris Harvey
Marcus Wilson .207 .276 .369 69 .162 .313 3.4 -6 -0.9 Corey Brown
Garrett Benge .198 .271 .287 49 .089 .306 2.5 2 -1.1 Chase Voshell
Jeisson Rosario .221 .320 .316 70 .095 .311 3.4 -10 -1.1 Gregor Blanco
Ryan Fitzgerald .217 .272 .305 53 .088 .304 2.7 -1 -1.2 Scott Carnes
Brett Netzer .209 .263 .301 50 .092 .299 2.5 5 -1.2 Jason Wood
Marco Hernandez .243 .272 .334 60 .091 .309 3.1 -7 -1.4 Steve Sisco
Pedro Castellanos .246 .279 .361 68 .116 .286 3.4 -5 -2.0 Mike Collins

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Chris Sale L 32 9 5 3.35 20 20 121.0 103 45 14 28 147 3.20
Eduardo Rodriguez L 28 11 8 4.23 29 28 164.0 159 77 21 60 167 4.02
Martín Pérez L 30 8 8 5.07 27 25 135.0 149 76 19 55 104 4.78
Nathan Eovaldi R 31 5 4 4.70 21 17 90.0 93 47 15 26 90 4.31
Connor Seabold R 25 5 4 4.85 19 19 94.7 99 51 16 27 91 4.47
Ryan Weber R 30 6 5 4.86 35 17 111.0 125 60 17 30 73 4.83
Andrew Cashner R 34 8 7 5.05 28 20 117.7 123 66 17 48 85 4.94
Bryan Mata R 22 9 8 4.97 23 23 105.0 104 58 12 62 90 4.89
Collin McHugh R 34 4 3 4.35 32 9 72.3 69 35 10 27 75 4.19
Garrett Whitlock R 25 4 4 4.89 18 18 84.7 92 46 10 37 65 4.67
Matt Hall L 27 5 5 4.93 31 12 95.0 96 52 12 49 95 4.53
Joel Payamps R 27 6 6 4.86 20 15 87.0 95 47 14 25 75 4.58
Nick Pivetta R 28 7 7 5.16 28 19 113.3 118 65 18 45 104 4.71
Ryan Brasier R 33 3 2 3.92 60 1 57.3 53 25 7 18 57 3.83
Zack Godley R 31 7 7 5.16 26 18 106.3 112 61 16 48 105 4.68
Matt Barnes R 31 5 3 3.99 63 0 58.7 47 26 6 34 78 3.69
Chris Mazza R 31 4 4 5.06 23 15 90.7 99 51 13 35 69 4.88
Kutter Crawford R 25 7 8 5.30 23 23 105.3 110 62 15 60 93 5.17
Jeffrey Springs L 28 4 3 4.50 39 5 70.0 67 35 10 33 82 4.24
Eduard Bazardo R 25 5 4 4.58 33 4 72.7 76 37 12 21 65 4.61
Tanner Houck R 25 7 8 5.31 26 17 95.0 100 56 15 46 81 5.17
Mike Kickham L 32 5 4 5.06 24 12 74.7 79 42 13 27 65 4.95
Stephen Gonsalves L 26 8 8 5.43 24 21 104.3 107 63 15 60 98 5.04
Josh Taylor L 28 4 3 4.20 57 0 55.7 50 26 7 26 63 4.11
Raynel Espinal R 29 5 5 4.81 24 3 67.3 67 36 12 24 68 4.68
Dylan Covey R 29 5 6 5.40 27 18 96.7 110 58 13 35 71 4.64
Marcus Walden R 32 4 4 4.67 45 3 61.7 62 32 7 28 54 4.41
Brian Johnson L 30 3 3 5.33 27 13 74.3 81 44 13 35 66 5.17
Darwinzon Hernandez L 24 3 3 4.35 57 0 49.7 39 24 6 35 65 4.49
Phillips Valdez R 29 4 4 5.30 39 11 91.7 103 54 14 43 77 5.09
Kevin McCarthy R 29 3 2 4.45 52 0 58.7 64 29 6 21 38 4.39
Austin Brice R 29 3 2 4.61 46 1 52.7 49 27 8 22 56 4.57
Andrew Triggs R 32 3 3 5.36 11 9 43.7 46 26 8 17 37 5.24
Kyle Hart L 28 7 9 5.70 21 19 102.7 118 65 17 47 80 5.29
R.J. Alvarez R 30 4 4 4.60 47 0 47.0 42 24 5 30 51 4.44
Colten Brewer R 28 4 4 4.93 52 3 65.7 65 36 9 33 62 4.72
Steven Wright R 36 2 2 5.66 13 7 47.7 52 30 9 22 35 5.74
Seth Blair R 32 2 2 5.06 11 1 21.3 21 12 3 13 21 5.01
Mike Shawaryn R 26 4 5 5.99 25 19 100.7 113 67 20 48 85 5.68
Robinson Leyer R 28 2 3 5.51 37 1 47.3 46 29 7 36 50 5.46
Durbin Feltman R 24 3 3 5.33 45 0 50.7 49 30 6 35 48 5.07
Caleb Simpson R 29 3 4 5.54 35 0 37.3 34 23 5 28 40 5.27
Kaleb Ort R 29 3 3 5.68 33 0 44.3 39 28 6 38 53 5.32
Adam Lau R 26 3 4 5.81 40 1 57.3 60 37 10 38 56 5.69

Pitchers – Standard
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Chris Sale 10.9 2.1 1.0 5.6% 29.6% .299 139 72 3.1 John Smiley
Eduardo Rodriguez 9.2 3.3 1.2 8.5% 23.7% .305 110 91 2.8 Mark Mulder
Martín Pérez 6.9 3.7 1.3 9.1% 17.2% .309 91 109 1.1 Woodie Fryman
Nathan Eovaldi 9.0 2.6 1.5 6.7% 23.3% .310 99 101 1.0 Pat Ahearne
Connor Seabold 8.7 2.6 1.5 6.6% 22.3% .309 96 105 1.0 Mark Knudson
Ryan Weber 5.9 2.4 1.4 6.2% 15.1% .301 95 105 1.0 Willis Hudlin
Andrew Cashner 6.5 3.7 1.3 9.2% 16.4% .290 92 109 1.0 Spec Shea
Bryan Mata 7.7 5.3 1.0 12.9% 18.8% .298 93 107 1.0 Stan Fansler
Collin McHugh 9.3 3.4 1.2 8.7% 24.0% .301 106 94 0.9 Mike Fyhrie 피어리
Garrett Whitlock 6.9 3.9 1.1 9.7% 17.0% .309 95 105 0.9 Steve Arlin
Matt Hall 9.0 4.6 1.1 11.4% 22.1% .313 94 106 0.8 Jake Chapman
Joel Payamps 7.8 2.6 1.4 6.6% 19.7% .310 95 105 0.8 Ray Bare
Nick Pivetta 8.3 3.6 1.4 9.0% 20.8% .305 90 111 0.7 Brian Kingman
Ryan Brasier 8.9 2.8 1.1 7.5% 23.7% .293 118 85 0.7 Todd Williams
Zack Godley 8.9 4.1 1.4 10.0% 22.0% .317 90 111 0.7 Julian Tavarez
Matt Barnes 12.0 5.2 0.9 13.3% 30.5% .301 116 86 0.7 Cory Bailey
Chris Mazza 6.8 3.5 1.3 8.6% 17.0% .305 92 109 0.7 Jim Bagby
Kutter Crawford 7.9 5.1 1.3 12.4% 19.2% .306 88 114 0.7 Randy Hennis
Jeffrey Springs 10.5 4.2 1.3 10.7% 26.5% .315 103 97 0.6 Randy Choate
Eduard Bazardo 8.1 2.6 1.5 6.7% 20.6% .302 101 99 0.6 John Doherty
Tanner Houck 7.7 4.4 1.4 10.7% 18.8% .301 87 114 0.5 Tim Byron
Mike Kickham 7.8 3.3 1.6 8.2% 19.8% .300 92 109 0.5 Bob Chipman
Stephen Gonsalves 8.5 5.2 1.3 12.6% 20.5% .307 85 117 0.5 John Courtwright
Josh Taylor 10.2 4.2 1.1 10.7% 26.0% .301 110 91 0.4 Scott Wiegandt
Raynel Espinal 9.1 3.2 1.6 8.2% 23.4% .299 96 104 0.4 Keith Glauber
Dylan Covey 6.6 3.3 1.2 8.1% 16.5% .314 86 116 0.4 Ownie Carroll
Marcus Walden 7.9 4.1 1.0 10.2% 19.7% .302 99 101 0.4 Jim Todd
Brian Johnson 8.0 4.2 1.6 10.4% 19.6% .309 87 115 0.3 Mike Kekich
Darwinzon Hernandez 11.8 6.3 1.1 15.6% 29.0% .289 107 94 0.3 Luke Walker
Phillips Valdez 7.6 4.2 1.4 10.2% 18.3% .318 87 114 0.3 Ed Klieman
Kevin McCarthy 5.8 3.2 0.9 8.1% 14.7% .304 104 96 0.3 Frank Linzy
Austin Brice 9.6 3.8 1.4 9.5% 24.2% .293 100 100 0.2 Mike Koplove
Andrew Triggs 7.6 3.5 1.6 8.8% 19.1% .295 87 116 0.2 Steve Sparks
Kyle Hart 7.0 4.1 1.5 10.0% 17.0% .315 81 123 0.2 Vaughn Eshelman
R.J. Alvarez 9.8 5.7 1.0 14.2% 24.1% .298 101 99 0.2 Ed Farmer
Colten Brewer 8.5 4.5 1.2 11.3% 21.2% .301 94 106 0.2 Jim Duffalo
Steven Wright 6.6 4.2 1.7 10.2% 16.2% .293 82 122 0.1 Tommy Thomas
Seth Blair 8.9 5.5 1.3 13.3% 21.4% .300 92 109 0.1 Jerry Johnson
Mike Shawaryn 7.6 4.3 1.8 10.4% 18.4% .307 77 129 -0.1 Kevin Hodges 호지스
Robinson Leyer 9.5 6.8 1.3 16.1% 22.3% .305 84 119 -0.2 Jim Dickson
Durbin Feltman 8.5 6.2 1.1 14.9% 20.4% .301 87 115 -0.2 Jim Winn
Caleb Simpson 9.6 6.8 1.2 16.0% 22.9% .293 84 120 -0.2 Maximo Nunez
Kaleb Ort 10.8 7.7 1.2 18.1% 25.2% .300 82 123 -0.3 Archie Corbin
Adam Lau 8.8 6.0 1.6 14.1% 20.7% .309 80 125 -0.4 Sean Green

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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sadtrombone

Mom!!!!! Dan is messing with the font style again!!!!