2021 ZiPS Projections: Minnesota Twins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Minnesota Twins.

Batters

I’m surprised that the Twins haven’t come to an agreement with Nelson Cruz, who seems almost immune to the ravages of time. The Twinkies dropped from second in the AL in runs scored to 10th, but that’s not Cruz’s fault: He hit .303/.397/.595 as the DH despite turning 40 in July. Is there a better fit for him than the Twin Cities? He’s well-liked in town(s), and this is arguably the franchise that needs his services most. That confluence of events tends to result in mutually beneficial contracts.

Without Cruz, Minnesota projects as a slight underdog to the White Sox, based on current rosters. Bringing him back and letting Alex Kirilloff get the bulk of playing time in left flips that standing to slight favorites. With few players signed, there are a lot of directions to go, but 40-year-olds don’t typically command enough resources that adding Cruz would preclude other moves. There is downside — Steamer and ZiPS massively disagree on his 2021 dropoff — but if he were a guarantee, he ought to get a one-year-deal at $25 million.

One places ZiPS and Steamer do not disagree on is Luis Arraez. After a slow start in 2020 — he didn’t get an extra-base hit until his 12th game — he started hitting at a torrid pace, slashing .410/.429/.541 over the rest of the season. Alas, that stint was shorter than the Twins would have preferred, as an ankle injury and a knee injury cost him a few weeks. ZiPS projected Arraez to lead the majors in batting average coming into 2020; that holds for 2021, too.

Any time Byron Buxton has a hot streak, ZiPS gets as excited as a dog when it sees you getting a jacket out of the hall closet. Six years after his debut, he still hasn’t had the season where every star-component came together (including health). This time around, we got defense (+3 by UZR, +11 by DRS) and power (13 homers in 135 plate appearances thanks to an average exit velocity just behind Cruz). Unfortunately, we also got was a big step backwards in plate discipline: Buxton is going full-on Bald Bull in aggressiveness, with his out-of-zone swing rate jumping by nearly 50% over what he’s ever done before. And that was without a similar improvement of swinging at good pitches. The health wasn’t quite there, either, as Buxton missed a third of the season due to a shoulder injury and a concussion.

Overall, this team’s lineup looks solid with a Cruz return, though more likely to be fourth-to-eighth in runs scored than revisiting 2019’s homer-fest. Without Cruz, they’re missing that last big bat, making the non-tendering of Eddie Rosario looks a bajillion times worse.

Pitchers

I love me some Brusdar Graterol, but the Twins sneaking into the Mookie Betts trade in order to upgrade from an exciting young reliever to a dependable No. 2 starter worked out brilliantly for them. Kenta Maeda was a legitimate ace last year, running with that role while José Berríos was having a very ordinary season. In the end, that trade was just enough to squeeze the Twins to a divisional title over the Indians and White Sox. Maeda is also signed for another four seasons on a team-friendly deal, so the trade still works for the Twins even if Graterol becomes Mariano Rivera.

After Maeda, the rotation looks underwhelming but thankfully short of disaster-movie territory. Jake Odorizzi struggled to match his 2019 (and is a free agent), and Randy Dobnak’s upside is one in which he throws a lot of innings adequately. Michael Pineda was effective after returning from his suspension, but apart from his unpaid vacation, he has a troubling injury history. Some depth is needed here, and it would be nice to see the Twins go the ambitious route, given how valuable each extra win is for them. For example: If the Cubs are desperate to trade Yu Darvish, Minnesota should be happy to pay him. Cleveland looks to be entering a down period, and the White Sox don’t appear to be going after Trevor Bauer or George Springer, so why not go all-in? A team that never seems to win a playoff game ought to see the benefit of winning the division and skipping the Wild Card Game.

The bullpen looks a lot like the rotation: average with depth needed. The Twins were sixth in baseball in bullpen ERA in 2020, but Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard, and Matt Wisler, all free agents, combined for 84 innings of a 3.11 ERA. With only three teams left to go, ZiPS currently ranks Minnesota’s relief corps as 16th in baseball. It also projects Taylor Rogers as a huge breakout candidate, but the Twins need another big arm for those high-leverage innings, and preferably two.

 

 

 

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.