ZiPS 2021 Projections: New York Mets
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Mets.
Batters
Robinson Canó’s suspension for the 2021 season may be a blessing in disguise from the point of view of the Mets, at least if we trust the second baseman’s ZiPS projection. Canó was surprisingly good in 2020, but there’s a great deal of gravity surrounding him; he seemed to be nearing the end this time last year and Nelson Cruz notwithstanding, the typical decline for hitters in their late 30s would be illegal for roller coasters. The Mets aren’t losing Canó’s 2020, they’re losing what they could have gotten from him in 2021, which isn’t necessarily the same thing. There’s opportunity here to get creative in the infield. Jeff McNeil becomes the obvious second base candidate with J.D. Davis moving back to third. ZiPS is into the former but not the latter, and it would be fun to see the Mets go after someone like Justin Turner at the hot corner.
Even if the Mets stick with what they have, there’s only one real glaring weakness in the starting lineup: catcher. Wilson Ramos looked like he aged fairly quickly in 2020 and the team no longer has much in the way of quality depth at the position, which used to be a necessity due to Travis d’Arnaud’s injury record. If new owner Steve Cohen wants a highly efficient way to splash some cash around, there may be no more efficient signing out there than landing J.T. Realmuto. At this point last year, I figured that the Phillies were certain to extend Realmuto, but now that they’ve lost $20 million, $2 billion, or whatever fictional figure sneaks past an editor, the Mets have an opportunity to poke a finger in a rival’s eye. And, of course, it’s a winning baseball idea!
So long as the team stays healthy, there aren’t any other huge headaches in the lineup. ZiPS isn’t the least bit worried about Pete Alonso despite a slightly disappointing sophomore season and though the computer isn’t fully on Team Giménez, it still sees the shortstop timeshare as adequate, if not terribly exciting. If the players don’t stay healthy, the Mets aren’t particularly deep, so there’s some work to be done this winter even if it’s not of the headline-making variety. There are a lot of solid role players on this projection list, but a very high percentage of them are free agents.
Pitchers
It would not shock me if the Mets have the best rotation in baseball. Jacob deGrom is a serious preseason favorite for Cy Young; I’m not sure I wouldn’t have taken him over Trevor Bauer and Yu Darvish if I had had a Cy vote this past season. Yes, wins aren’t a remotely good way of evaluating a pitcher, but the cosmic unfairness of deGrom never having finished a season with more than 15 wins remains incredibly frustrating. ZiPS projects deGrom to finish with 69 career WAR (cue the meme), but only 167 wins. The most career WAR for a pitcher with as few wins as that is Bret Saberhagen at 55.3. I would consider it karmic justice if deGrom snagged a few mediocre 20-win seasons at the end of his career.
And after deGrom, there’s a great deal of upside. The Mets were fortunate to get Marcus Stroman back with a qualifying offer; the calf injury that helped cost him 2020 isn’t expected to be a problem next year. Noah Syndergaard’s injury was far more serious, of course, but it’s much better for 2021 that he got his Tommy John surgery in March rather than the Mets playing “wait-and-see” until late summer. David Peterson looked solid in stretches in 2020 and ZiPS isn’t banking on a repeat of his higher-than-expected walk rate.
The team’s bullpen looks like a roughly league-average crew at this point. ZiPS was never an Edwin Díaz disbeliever and while there were reasons for some mild concern — his walk rate for one — he was a convincing example of why you shouldn’t panic about a spike in a good pitcher’s HR/9 rate. The good news is that in a world where other teams don’t want to take a year of Brad Hand for basically free, there are opportunities for the Mets to add a name brand arm or two. I’d love to see them go after Hand and someone like Trevor May or Blake Treinen.
Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Conforto | L | 28 | RF | 608 | 518 | 86 | 137 | 26 | 1 | 27 | 93 | 76 | 152 | 7 | 4 |
Jeff McNeil | L | 29 | 2B | 581 | 522 | 71 | 155 | 33 | 3 | 16 | 70 | 41 | 71 | 6 | 5 |
Pete Alonso | R | 26 | 1B | 616 | 536 | 81 | 132 | 24 | 1 | 41 | 110 | 61 | 164 | 2 | 2 |
Brandon Nimmo | L | 28 | CF | 498 | 410 | 67 | 100 | 21 | 5 | 16 | 49 | 74 | 123 | 4 | 3 |
Dominic Smith | L | 26 | LF | 541 | 494 | 68 | 134 | 33 | 2 | 21 | 80 | 38 | 128 | 1 | 1 |
Amed Rosario | R | 25 | SS | 609 | 575 | 73 | 154 | 24 | 7 | 14 | 62 | 26 | 122 | 16 | 8 |
Luis Guillorme | L | 26 | 2B | 383 | 336 | 39 | 86 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 40 | 68 | 4 | 2 |
Andrés Giménez | L | 22 | SS | 480 | 436 | 56 | 102 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 42 | 23 | 111 | 25 | 12 |
J.D. Davis | R | 28 | 3B | 533 | 474 | 63 | 122 | 24 | 1 | 19 | 62 | 48 | 130 | 2 | 1 |
Jake Marisnick | R | 30 | CF | 303 | 279 | 43 | 66 | 15 | 2 | 12 | 36 | 16 | 89 | 7 | 3 |
Brian Dozier | R | 34 | 2B | 471 | 417 | 56 | 94 | 18 | 1 | 17 | 56 | 48 | 106 | 6 | 4 |
Robinson Canó | L | 38 | 2B | 393 | 368 | 41 | 99 | 21 | 0 | 12 | 47 | 20 | 60 | 0 | 0 |
Bruce Maxwell | L | 30 | C | 371 | 335 | 38 | 74 | 17 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 34 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
Todd Frazier | R | 35 | 3B | 471 | 419 | 51 | 93 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 60 | 39 | 109 | 3 | 3 |
Robel García | B | 28 | 2B | 473 | 421 | 59 | 88 | 14 | 4 | 20 | 80 | 44 | 173 | 3 | 5 |
Wilson Ramos | R | 33 | C | 438 | 403 | 37 | 104 | 17 | 0 | 12 | 59 | 29 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
Mallex Smith | L | 28 | CF | 533 | 484 | 59 | 115 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 37 | 39 | 122 | 40 | 8 |
René Rivera | R | 37 | C | 310 | 284 | 28 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 40 | 19 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
Robinson Chirinos | R | 37 | C | 342 | 297 | 32 | 58 | 14 | 0 | 9 | 41 | 31 | 100 | 0 | 1 |
Yoenis Céspedes | R | 35 | LF | 256 | 233 | 28 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 12 | 39 | 18 | 75 | 1 | 0 |
Juan Lagares | R | 32 | CF | 268 | 246 | 33 | 57 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 61 | 4 | 2 |
Tomás Nido | R | 27 | C | 321 | 301 | 30 | 67 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 41 | 15 | 74 | 0 | 0 |
Max Moroff | B | 28 | SS | 332 | 282 | 40 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 42 | 45 | 109 | 4 | 2 |
Jake Hager | R | 28 | 2B | 390 | 358 | 38 | 76 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 39 | 24 | 107 | 5 | 2 |
Jose Peraza | R | 27 | 2B | 545 | 508 | 56 | 124 | 21 | 3 | 8 | 41 | 23 | 80 | 12 | 6 |
David Rodriguez | R | 25 | C | 378 | 348 | 34 | 70 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 34 | 23 | 106 | 3 | 2 |
Gordon Beckham | R | 34 | 2B | 359 | 329 | 36 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 23 | 74 | 4 | 1 |
Mitchell Tolman | L | 27 | 2B | 464 | 407 | 45 | 78 | 14 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 45 | 141 | 8 | 5 |
Patrick Mazeika | L | 27 | C | 437 | 395 | 43 | 85 | 17 | 1 | 11 | 46 | 33 | 92 | 1 | 0 |
Ali Sánchez | R | 24 | C | 359 | 334 | 30 | 71 | 15 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 71 | 2 | 2 |
Guillermo Heredia | R | 30 | CF | 320 | 284 | 36 | 65 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 24 | 64 | 3 | 3 |
Jed Lowrie | B | 37 | 2B | 442 | 400 | 42 | 91 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 46 | 38 | 89 | 0 | 0 |
Luis Carpio | R | 23 | 2B | 462 | 422 | 43 | 92 | 19 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 34 | 96 | 5 | 12 |
Jarrett Parker | L | 32 | RF | 374 | 330 | 41 | 64 | 12 | 1 | 13 | 47 | 41 | 136 | 2 | 2 |
Eduardo Nuñez | R | 34 | 2B | 376 | 358 | 37 | 90 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 12 | 52 | 12 | 3 |
Will Toffey | L | 26 | 3B | 364 | 316 | 36 | 58 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 45 | 117 | 3 | 2 |
Braxton Lee | L | 27 | CF | 465 | 418 | 43 | 94 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 36 | 118 | 8 | 6 |
Ryan Cordell | R | 29 | RF | 271 | 248 | 24 | 50 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 27 | 16 | 80 | 7 | 2 |
Carlos Cortes | L | 24 | 2B | 513 | 466 | 50 | 101 | 19 | 4 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 106 | 4 | 5 |
Joey Terdoslavich | B | 32 | 1B | 358 | 325 | 35 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 33 | 29 | 71 | 1 | 1 |
Quinn Brodey | L | 25 | CF | 485 | 446 | 42 | 88 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 42 | 31 | 158 | 9 | 4 |
Jeremy Vasquez | L | 24 | 1B | 562 | 505 | 51 | 112 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 45 | 49 | 127 | 2 | 3 |
Travis Taijeron | R | 32 | 1B | 432 | 378 | 45 | 68 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 49 | 43 | 179 | 2 | 2 |
Michael Paez | R | 26 | 2B | 449 | 402 | 40 | 80 | 16 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 33 | 107 | 3 | 6 |
Melky Cabrera | B | 36 | RF | 420 | 396 | 42 | 104 | 18 | 1 | 7 | 51 | 19 | 50 | 2 | 1 |
Johneshwy Fargas | R | 26 | CF | 434 | 395 | 40 | 77 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 24 | 113 | 28 | 17 |
Nick Meyer | R | 24 | C | 220 | 204 | 16 | 36 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 12 | 53 | 6 | 2 |
Ronny Mauricio | B | 20 | SS | 460 | 436 | 40 | 91 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 30 | 17 | 118 | 4 | 10 |
Zach Ashford | L | 24 | LF | 491 | 442 | 43 | 85 | 21 | 4 | 7 | 37 | 39 | 143 | 8 | 11 |
Blake Tiberi | L | 26 | 3B | 494 | 443 | 47 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 4 | 29 | 44 | 128 | 9 | 4 |
Tim Tebow | L | 33 | LF | 334 | 309 | 24 | 48 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 19 | 144 | 2 | 2 |
Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | RC/27 | Def | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Conforto | .264 | .368 | .475 | 130 | .210 | .324 | 6.4 | 2 | 3.9 | Steve Kemp |
Jeff McNeil | .297 | .362 | .464 | 125 | .167 | .320 | 6.4 | -4 | 3.6 | Cecil Travis |
Pete Alonso | .246 | .339 | .524 | 132 | .278 | .275 | 6.3 | 0 | 3.5 | Jeff Burroughs |
Brandon Nimmo | .244 | .373 | .437 | 122 | .193 | .310 | 5.8 | -5 | 2.9 | Rick Monday |
Dominic Smith | .271 | .329 | .474 | 117 | .202 | .328 | 5.8 | -2 | 2.2 | Dmitri Young |
Amed Rosario | .268 | .301 | .407 | 92 | .139 | .319 | 4.5 | -3 | 1.6 | Rafael Ramirez |
Luis Guillorme | .256 | .337 | .345 | 89 | .089 | .311 | 4.2 | 2 | 1.3 | Jeff Treadway |
Andrés Giménez | .234 | .294 | .365 | 80 | .131 | .294 | 3.8 | 3 | 1.2 | Carlos Garcia |
J.D. Davis | .257 | .332 | .432 | 108 | .175 | .317 | 5.2 | -13 | 1.2 | Brook Jacoby |
Jake Marisnick | .237 | .289 | .434 | 95 | .197 | .303 | 4.5 | 2 | 1.1 | John Shelby |
Brian Dozier | .225 | .310 | .396 | 92 | .170 | .262 | 4.2 | -3 | 1.0 | Damion Easley |
Robinson Canó | .269 | .310 | .424 | 99 | .155 | .294 | 4.9 | -4 | 1.0 | Cal Ripken Jr. |
Bruce Maxwell | .221 | .291 | .352 | 76 | .131 | .285 | 3.6 | 4 | 1.0 | Alan Ashby |
Todd Frazier | .222 | .301 | .384 | 87 | .162 | .262 | 3.9 | 0 | 1.0 | Clete Boyer |
Robel García | .209 | .288 | .404 | 87 | .195 | .298 | 3.8 | 1 | 1.0 | Bobby Smith |
Wilson Ramos | .258 | .311 | .390 | 91 | .132 | .291 | 4.4 | -6 | 0.9 | Eddie Taubensee |
Mallex Smith | .238 | .302 | .345 | 78 | .107 | .308 | 4.2 | -1 | 0.9 | Chris Duffy |
René Rivera | .201 | .259 | .352 | 66 | .151 | .266 | 3.1 | 6 | 0.7 | Pat Borders |
Robinson Chirinos | .195 | .287 | .333 | 70 | .138 | .261 | 3.1 | 1 | 0.5 | Elston Howard |
Yoenis Céspedes | .227 | .289 | .433 | 95 | .206 | .281 | 4.4 | 0 | 0.3 | Bobby Thomson |
Juan Lagares | .232 | .286 | .329 | 69 | .098 | .297 | 3.3 | 4 | 0.3 | Tony Scott |
Tomás Nido | .223 | .259 | .365 | 69 | .143 | .266 | 3.3 | 1 | 0.3 | Willie Morales |
Max Moroff | .188 | .303 | .326 | 73 | .138 | .268 | 3.3 | -2 | 0.3 | Lauro Felix |
Jake Hager | .212 | .263 | .349 | 66 | .137 | .274 | 3.2 | 5 | 0.2 | Adam Pavkovich |
Jose Peraza | .244 | .287 | .344 | 73 | .100 | .276 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.2 | Luis Sojo |
David Rodriguez | .201 | .255 | .313 | 55 | .112 | .268 | 2.7 | 6 | 0.2 | Damian Miller |
Gordon Beckham | .222 | .279 | .337 | 69 | .116 | .266 | 3.3 | 2 | 0.2 | Billy Gardner |
Mitchell Tolman | .192 | .278 | .287 | 56 | .096 | .274 | 2.6 | 7 | 0.0 | Nate Frese |
Patrick Mazeika | .215 | .284 | .347 | 72 | .132 | .253 | 3.4 | -6 | 0.0 | Alberto Castillo |
Ali Sánchez | .213 | .262 | .299 | 54 | .087 | .259 | 2.6 | 4 | 0.0 | Tom Wieghaus |
Guillermo Heredia | .229 | .303 | .363 | 82 | .134 | .269 | 3.7 | -5 | -0.1 | Rowland Office |
Jed Lowrie | .228 | .296 | .345 | 76 | .118 | .272 | 3.6 | -4 | -0.1 | Terry Pendleton |
Luis Carpio | .218 | .280 | .322 | 65 | .104 | .266 | 2.6 | 4 | -0.2 | Jose Valdez |
Jarrett Parker | .194 | .286 | .355 | 75 | .161 | .282 | 3.3 | 0 | -0.3 | Orsino Hill |
Eduardo Nuñez | .251 | .277 | .358 | 73 | .106 | .278 | 3.8 | -5 | -0.4 | Cookie Rojas |
Will Toffey | .184 | .288 | .291 | 60 | .108 | .269 | 2.7 | 0 | -0.4 | Ron Bourquin |
Braxton Lee | .225 | .288 | .292 | 61 | .067 | .306 | 2.8 | 1 | -0.5 | Kevin Koslofski |
Ryan Cordell | .202 | .253 | .331 | 59 | .129 | .272 | 2.9 | 1 | -0.7 | Victor Mendez |
Carlos Cortes | .217 | .279 | .333 | 68 | .116 | .262 | 3.1 | -4 | -0.7 | Sean Kazmar Jr. |
Joey Terdoslavich | .225 | .288 | .332 | 70 | .108 | .267 | 3.3 | 0 | -0.7 | Ryan McGuire |
Quinn Brodey | .197 | .252 | .309 | 53 | .112 | .283 | 2.6 | 3 | -0.7 | Justin Justice |
Jeremy Vasquez | .222 | .294 | .319 | 69 | .097 | .283 | 3.2 | 3 | -0.8 | Andy Barkett |
Travis Taijeron | .180 | .278 | .352 | 72 | .172 | .288 | 3.2 | -3 | -1.0 | Dustan Mohr |
Michael Paez | .199 | .269 | .303 | 57 | .104 | .251 | 2.5 | -1 | -1.0 | Randy Blood |
Melky Cabrera | .263 | .296 | .366 | 81 | .104 | .286 | 4.0 | -9 | -1.0 | Rip Radcliff |
Johneshwy Fargas | .195 | .258 | .284 | 49 | .089 | .257 | 2.3 | 0 | -1.2 | Anthony Jackson |
Nick Meyer | .176 | .228 | .221 | 25 | .044 | .233 | 1.7 | -2 | -1.3 | Charlie Greene |
Ronny Mauricio | .209 | .242 | .298 | 47 | .089 | .275 | 2.1 | 0 | -1.6 | Julio Bruno |
Zach Ashford | .192 | .267 | .305 | 57 | .113 | .267 | 2.4 | 1 | -1.7 | Karl Rhodes |
Blake Tiberi | .199 | .274 | .271 | 51 | .072 | .270 | 2.5 | -7 | -1.8 | Tommy Nicholson |
Tim Tebow | .155 | .213 | .233 | 23 | .078 | .273 | 1.5 | -9 | -3.4 | Orsino Hill |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob deGrom | R | 33 | 12 | 6 | 2.85 | 28 | 28 | 176.7 | 138 | 56 | 20 | 40 | 217 | 2.96 |
Noah Syndergaard | R | 28 | 7 | 5 | 3.69 | 21 | 21 | 126.7 | 120 | 52 | 16 | 31 | 125 | 3.68 |
Marcus Stroman | R | 30 | 8 | 6 | 3.88 | 21 | 21 | 123.0 | 118 | 53 | 15 | 41 | 104 | 4.12 |
David Peterson | L | 25 | 8 | 7 | 4.14 | 29 | 27 | 134.7 | 128 | 62 | 16 | 53 | 119 | 4.29 |
Seth Lugo | R | 31 | 9 | 7 | 4.10 | 23 | 23 | 127.3 | 117 | 58 | 23 | 27 | 139 | 4.15 |
Edwin Diaz | R | 27 | 6 | 2 | 2.70 | 68 | 0 | 66.7 | 44 | 20 | 8 | 25 | 114 | 2.67 |
Rick Porcello | R | 32 | 11 | 10 | 4.50 | 27 | 27 | 154.0 | 159 | 77 | 27 | 38 | 138 | 4.54 |
Steven Matz | L | 30 | 8 | 8 | 4.65 | 26 | 23 | 122.0 | 119 | 63 | 21 | 43 | 121 | 4.64 |
Michael Wacha | R | 29 | 6 | 6 | 4.67 | 23 | 20 | 108.0 | 108 | 56 | 18 | 42 | 102 | 4.68 |
Joe Cavallaro | R | 25 | 7 | 7 | 4.71 | 32 | 14 | 101.3 | 99 | 53 | 13 | 53 | 88 | 4.86 |
Miguel Castro | R | 26 | 4 | 3 | 3.97 | 67 | 0 | 81.7 | 71 | 36 | 8 | 40 | 79 | 4.06 |
Tylor Megill | R | 25 | 7 | 7 | 4.61 | 23 | 11 | 68.3 | 62 | 35 | 11 | 36 | 79 | 4.72 |
Justin Wilson | L | 33 | 4 | 2 | 3.60 | 53 | 0 | 45.0 | 35 | 18 | 5 | 24 | 58 | 3.71 |
Corey Oswalt | R | 27 | 5 | 6 | 4.90 | 21 | 18 | 93.7 | 96 | 51 | 18 | 29 | 82 | 5.02 |
Dellin Betances | R | 33 | 3 | 2 | 3.59 | 46 | 0 | 42.7 | 31 | 17 | 5 | 26 | 63 | 3.93 |
Nick Tropeano | R | 30 | 4 | 4 | 4.76 | 17 | 11 | 70.0 | 69 | 37 | 14 | 28 | 71 | 5.12 |
Ariel Jurado | R | 25 | 8 | 9 | 5.06 | 28 | 19 | 122.7 | 138 | 69 | 23 | 28 | 80 | 5.10 |
Franklyn Kilome | R | 26 | 4 | 4 | 4.94 | 18 | 16 | 85.7 | 85 | 47 | 10 | 52 | 69 | 5.08 |
Daniel Zamora | L | 28 | 3 | 2 | 3.83 | 48 | 0 | 47.0 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 18 | 54 | 3.88 |
Jacob Barnes | R | 31 | 3 | 3 | 4.00 | 54 | 1 | 54.0 | 47 | 24 | 7 | 23 | 61 | 3.99 |
Rob Whalen | R | 27 | 4 | 5 | 4.91 | 13 | 12 | 62.3 | 65 | 34 | 9 | 24 | 48 | 4.82 |
Yeizo Campos | R | 25 | 3 | 3 | 4.53 | 27 | 5 | 59.7 | 59 | 30 | 9 | 21 | 52 | 4.60 |
Jared Hughes | R | 35 | 4 | 3 | 4.01 | 58 | 0 | 58.3 | 53 | 26 | 6 | 23 | 48 | 4.26 |
Sam McWilliams | R | 25 | 7 | 8 | 5.17 | 25 | 20 | 125.3 | 137 | 72 | 22 | 47 | 91 | 5.28 |
Robert Gsellman | R | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4.32 | 54 | 2 | 66.7 | 66 | 32 | 8 | 25 | 57 | 4.38 |
Marcel Renteria | R | 26 | 3 | 3 | 4.66 | 32 | 5 | 65.7 | 63 | 34 | 8 | 36 | 58 | 4.82 |
Chasen Shreve | L | 30 | 3 | 2 | 4.15 | 51 | 0 | 56.3 | 47 | 26 | 9 | 28 | 73 | 4.26 |
Brad Brach | R | 35 | 3 | 3 | 4.12 | 50 | 0 | 48.0 | 42 | 22 | 5 | 26 | 53 | 4.01 |
Yefry Ramírez | R | 27 | 6 | 7 | 5.17 | 29 | 17 | 101.0 | 94 | 58 | 19 | 54 | 111 | 5.21 |
Jeurys Familia | R | 31 | 3 | 3 | 4.30 | 63 | 0 | 60.7 | 53 | 29 | 6 | 38 | 66 | 4.32 |
Drew Smith | R | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4.29 | 36 | 0 | 42.0 | 41 | 20 | 5 | 17 | 36 | 4.44 |
Arodys Vizcaíno | R | 30 | 3 | 3 | 4.33 | 39 | 0 | 35.3 | 32 | 17 | 6 | 17 | 39 | 4.79 |
Adonis Uceta | R | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4.61 | 36 | 2 | 52.7 | 50 | 27 | 7 | 26 | 50 | 4.66 |
Hunter Strickland | R | 32 | 3 | 3 | 4.37 | 39 | 0 | 35.0 | 34 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 33 | 4.44 |
Harol Gonzalez | R | 26 | 8 | 10 | 5.37 | 23 | 22 | 122.3 | 134 | 73 | 23 | 43 | 85 | 5.46 |
Thomas Szapucki | L | 25 | 2 | 3 | 5.34 | 21 | 17 | 55.7 | 54 | 33 | 10 | 33 | 56 | 5.44 |
Erasmo Ramirez | R | 31 | 4 | 5 | 5.32 | 24 | 16 | 89.7 | 97 | 53 | 19 | 27 | 63 | 5.57 |
Ryley Gilliam | R | 24 | 3 | 3 | 4.46 | 31 | 0 | 40.3 | 34 | 20 | 6 | 25 | 53 | 4.57 |
Tony Dibrell | R | 25 | 8 | 10 | 5.40 | 24 | 23 | 113.3 | 114 | 68 | 18 | 73 | 98 | 5.63 |
Peter Tago | R | 28 | 1 | 1 | 4.50 | 14 | 0 | 18.0 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 15 | 20 | 5.07 |
Paul Sewald | R | 31 | 3 | 3 | 4.50 | 47 | 0 | 56.0 | 55 | 28 | 9 | 18 | 56 | 4.34 |
Tommy Wilson | R | 25 | 6 | 7 | 5.45 | 21 | 20 | 99.0 | 107 | 60 | 19 | 39 | 76 | 5.47 |
Oscar De La Cruz | R | 26 | 4 | 6 | 5.33 | 28 | 12 | 82.7 | 85 | 49 | 16 | 38 | 76 | 5.42 |
Pedro Payano | R | 26 | 6 | 7 | 5.50 | 25 | 22 | 108.0 | 113 | 66 | 18 | 62 | 90 | 5.57 |
Ryder Ryan | R | 26 | 3 | 3 | 5.21 | 34 | 1 | 46.7 | 46 | 27 | 7 | 28 | 43 | 5.28 |
Nick Rumbelow | R | 29 | 2 | 3 | 5.25 | 27 | 0 | 36.0 | 37 | 21 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 5.43 |
Player | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% | BABIP | ERA+ | ERA- | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jacob deGrom | 11.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5.7% | 30.9% | .281 | 149 | 67 | 5.3 | Bob Gibson |
Noah Syndergaard | 8.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 5.9% | 23.8% | .297 | 115 | 87 | 2.5 | Paul Derringer |
Marcus Stroman | 7.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 7.9% | 20.0% | .287 | 109 | 92 | 2.1 | Bob Porterfield |
David Peterson | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 9.1% | 20.4% | .289 | 102 | 98 | 1.9 | Jim O’Toole |
Seth Lugo | 9.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 5.1% | 26.5% | .286 | 103 | 97 | 1.9 | Brad Radke |
Edwin Díaz | 15.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 9.2% | 42.1% | .303 | 157 | 64 | 1.7 | Mark Wohlers |
Rick Porcello | 8.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 5.8% | 21.1% | .297 | 94 | 106 | 1.6 | Bill Lee |
Steven Matz | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 8.2% | 23.0% | .293 | 91 | 110 | 1.0 | Kent Mercker |
Michael Wacha | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 9.0% | 21.8% | .296 | 91 | 110 | 0.9 | Jim Hannan |
Joe Cavallaro | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 11.6% | 19.3% | .292 | 90 | 111 | 0.7 | Walt Masterson |
Miguel Castro | 8.7 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 11.4% | 22.4% | .283 | 107 | 94 | 0.6 | Joe Hudson |
Tylor Megill | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 11.9% | 26.1% | .295 | 92 | 109 | 0.5 | Mike Lumley |
Justin Wilson | 11.6 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 12.5% | 30.2% | .288 | 118 | 85 | 0.5 | Marshall Bridges |
Corey Oswalt | 7.9 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 7.2% | 20.3% | .289 | 86 | 116 | 0.5 | Steve Finch |
Dellin Betances | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 13.8% | 33.5% | .292 | 118 | 85 | 0.5 | Jason Kershner |
Nick Tropeano | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 9.2% | 23.2% | .291 | 89 | 112 | 0.4 | Julian Tavarez |
Ariel Jurado | 5.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 5.3% | 15.2% | .293 | 84 | 119 | 0.4 | Rick Wise |
Franklyn Kilome | 7.2 | 5.5 | 1.1 | 13.2% | 17.6% | .292 | 86 | 117 | 0.4 | Mike Torrez |
Daniel Zamora | 10.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 9.0% | 27.0% | .294 | 111 | 90 | 0.4 | Juan Agosto |
Jacob Barnes | 10.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 10.0% | 26.4% | .290 | 106 | 94 | 0.4 | Dwight Bernard |
Rob Whalen | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 8.8% | 17.5% | .295 | 86 | 116 | 0.4 | Wayne Simpson |
Yeizo Campos | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 8.1% | 20.2% | .289 | 94 | 107 | 0.3 | Ken Ash |
Jared Hughes | 7.4 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 9.2% | 19.1% | .276 | 106 | 95 | 0.3 | Al Worthington |
Sam McWilliams | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 8.5% | 16.4% | .295 | 82 | 122 | 0.3 | Joey Housey |
Robert Gsellman | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 8.6% | 19.6% | .296 | 98 | 102 | 0.3 | Scott Munter |
Marcel Renteria | 7.9 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 12.2% | 19.7% | .291 | 91 | 110 | 0.3 | Sam Nahem |
Chasen Shreve | 11.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 11.5% | 30.0% | .290 | 102 | 98 | 0.2 | Doug Capilla |
Brad Brach | 9.9 | 4.9 | 0.9 | 12.4% | 25.2% | .296 | 103 | 97 | 0.2 | Turk Lown |
Yefry Ramírez | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 12.0% | 24.7% | .288 | 82 | 122 | 0.2 | Tim Byron |
Jeurys Familia | 9.8 | 5.6 | 0.9 | 14.0% | 24.3% | .296 | 98 | 102 | 0.1 | Dave Jolly |
Drew Smith | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 9.2% | 19.6% | .293 | 99 | 101 | 0.1 | Greg Minton |
Arodys Vizcaíno | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 11.0% | 25.2% | .286 | 98 | 102 | 0.1 | Ed Farmer |
Adonis Uceta | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 11.2% | 21.5% | .293 | 92 | 109 | 0.1 | Newt Kimball |
Hunter Strickland | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 9.2% | 21.7% | .293 | 97 | 103 | 0.1 | Hal White |
Harol Gonzalez | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 7.9% | 15.7% | .290 | 79 | 127 | 0.0 | Michael Macdonald |
Thomas Szapucki | 9.1 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 13.0% | 22.1% | .291 | 79 | 126 | 0.0 | Derek Thompson |
Erasmo Ramirez | 6.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 6.9% | 16.2% | .282 | 80 | 126 | 0.0 | Jim McAndrew |
Ryley Gilliam | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 13.8% | 29.3% | .298 | 95 | 105 | 0.0 | Anthony Chavez |
Tony Dibrell | 7.8 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 13.9% | 18.6% | .291 | 78 | 127 | 0.0 | Brett Laxton |
Peter Tago | 10.0 | 7.5 | 1.0 | 17.9% | 23.8% | .283 | 94 | 106 | 0.0 | Horacio Pina |
Paul Sewald | 9.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 7.5% | 23.4% | .299 | 94 | 106 | 0.0 | Chuck Crim |
Tommy Wilson | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 8.9% | 17.3% | .292 | 78 | 129 | -0.1 | Preston Larrison |
Oscar De La Cruz | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 10.3% | 20.5% | .294 | 79 | 126 | -0.1 | Dan Kolb |
Pedro Payano | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 12.5% | 18.1% | .296 | 77 | 130 | -0.1 | Edwin Morel |
Ryder Ryan | 8.3 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 13.1% | 20.1% | .293 | 81 | 123 | -0.3 | Ken Wright |
Nick Rumbelow | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 10.0% | 20.0% | .291 | 81 | 124 | -0.3 | Gary Wagner |
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.
ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Last year, ZIPS projected Dom Smith, who was coming off an OPS of .881 in 2019, to drop to an OPS of .723 (minus .158). Instead, he put up an OPS of .993 this year. For 2021, ZIPS is projecting that number to drop to .803 (minus .180 from 2020). 2020 may end up being Dom’s career high-water mark, but .803 still seems low, given the past 2 seasons. Does ZIPS still assign a lot of weight to his first two seasons, 2017 & 2018, given that the sample sizes in 2019 and 2020 are less than 200 ABs? Is it that it’s difficult to be sure a guy has truly turned a corner without a larger sample? If a guy truly does make a significant leap, how many AB does it take for ZIPS to believe it, generally?
ZiPs, unlike Steamer, sometimes believes in breakouts, but it also takes into account batted ball data. IIRC, Dom Smith in 2019 succeeded in a really weird way, one that is either was a little bit fluky or that statcast data wasn’t capturing. His success in 2020 seems to backed by statcast, but it’s another relatively small sample, due to the shortened season.
You’re right, Smith’s 2019 actual numbers outperformed his expected Statcast results. I remember a lot of goofy hits that just snuck through. Legitimate improvement but I was expecting something close to a league average wRC+ for 2020. Smith didn’t get to his 2020 .316/.377/.616 165 wRC+ with seeing-eye singles. He was amazing all season and Statcast loved him this year. I would’ve loved to see what kind of 162 game season he could have put together. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a 3.0-4.0 WAR 1B now.
Honestly he seems like the exact type of player who could end up being a star. High contact, high average baseline type guy with good defense. It seems to be easier to come from contact and get power than it is to come from power and get contact. While people do it both ways, it is rare that a high K power hitter just randomly starts making more contact, unless they are near superstar level already. A rare example of a power hitter becoming a contact hitter without losing power is Rowdy Tellez this year. Usually it is guys like Goldy having a few mid career peak years where they make good contact, before losing the contact ability. That is why Rowdy Tellez to me is likely going to be something special. What he did is something incredibly unusual.