2021 ZiPS Projections: Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers.

Batters

One initial note: ZiPS sees Globe Life Field as a fairly neutral park that leans just a skosh to the pitching side. We still have very little data about how the park plays and basing park factors on expectations tends to be a rather poor prognosticating urge.

The good news for Rangers fans is that, across the board and more than any other team in baseball, ZiPS sees Texas’ lineup in a more optimistic light than Steamer does. The bad news, of course, is that this represents the sunnier take on 2021. There’s no getting around the fact that this team will be in a fierce competition to grab the first pick in the 2022 amateur draft.

ZiPS anticipates a much better season in store for Joey Gallo, though one that just makes him a credible middle-of-the-order slugger rather than meeting any remaining star potential. It hurts to say it, but Gallo’s no longer all that young and it’s getting a little late in the day to talk about his future stardom. He’s put a lot of work into his plate discipline — he’s much better at laying off bad pitches than he was in his early years — but the fact remains that contact is a problem, and it’s unlikely to change at this point. That’s always going to put a hard ceiling on his batting average when he’s not having immense BABIP luck. Stardom would practically require him to smack 50 homers a year. A 40-homer Gallo pushes a team towards a pennant, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him doing that… in another uniform before next year’s ZiPS projections.

Nick Solak’s 2020 was a nearly-unmitigated disaster. He took a step backward in nearly every aspect of the game and as a super-sub, played a whole bunch of positions equally poorly, ending up with a profile that was less like Tony the Tiger (Phillips) and more like Tony the Tiger (cereal spokestiger). Now, his year obviously wasn’t grrrreeeat, but there were a lot of reasons to like him before last season. And really, the Rangers are probably going to need until May or June 2022 to win 90 games, so it’s not like they have any better choices than giving Solak another go.

It’s an open question as to whether Sam Huff will catch in the majors, but ZiPS is at least a believer in his bat. There’s no reason to just stick him in the lineup in 2021 — Huff needs high-minors experience to hone his defensive game and the Rangers are going nowhere — and the Rangers won’t. But he’s one of the few offensive bright spots in the organization. Also on the prospects front, don’t get too alarmed by the Josh Jung projection. He’s a 2019 draftee, after all, and his professional experience consists mainly of 40 games in A-ball. One shouldn’t expect a particularly exciting major league projection in the short-term based on that set of facts. Jung’s mainly here because he’s on our depth chart, though not because of any nefarious plot by my colleague Jason Martinez, but because of the abysmal position player depth throughout the organization.

Nate Lowe at least ought to be an upgrade on what Texas has been trotting out at first and hopefully, the team will give him a full shot rather than relegating him to a timeshare with Ronald Guzmán. Thankfully, both players hit left-handed, giving the team less opportunity to force an awkward platoon.

This is a bottom-five offense, arguably the worst in baseball, even. I’m going to have to check my inventory of zeroes; I used so many on that depth chart graphic that I may not have enough in reserve to run the Pirates.

Pitchers

Kyle Gibson is the team’s ace. That’s it, that’s the post.

[…]

[…]

OK, I’m probably not getting off the hook that easily. Gibson is a suitable fourth starter for a team contending for a Wild Card spot, but when he’s your likely Opening Day starter, you’re going to have a bad time. If not for an ERA comfortably over five in 2020 (with peripherals to match), Gibson likely would have already joined former teammates Mike Minor and Lance Lynn in parks that look less like a home-and-garden center when the roof is closed. ZiPS does project something of a bounce-back campaign from him, just not anything terribly exciting.

Historically, the Rangers have put a lot of faith in pitchers from overseas, which has proven beneficial, from investing a large sum of cash for Yu Darvish’s services to bringing Colby Lewis back from Japan before repatriating failed prospects was cool. The latest signing along these lines is Kohei Arihara, who comes with practically no risk on a two-year, $6.2 million contract (plus the 20% posting fee). Arihara relies more on control and a deep repertoire than explosive stuff, so the upside for the Rangers is nowhere near what it was for Darvish. ZiPS doesn’t even give Arihara a projection on the same level as what Kwang Hyun Kim got before 2020, but it does see him as a legitimate mid-rotation hurler.

Dane Dunning is probably the best starting pitcher on the team and the only one with a projected ERA+ of 100. That projection is a bump from his forecast with the White Sox, reflecting a park that ZiPS sees as a better fit. Dunning does come with some risk — he’s 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery and doesn’t have a whole lot of major league experience as a result — but he’s probably the most interesting pitcher on the roster in terms of upside potential.

You don’t fully see it in the 2021 projection, but one pitcher ZiPS is interested in is John King, a name that you won’t find on many prospect lists unless they go really deep (he made Eric Longenhagen’s honorable mentions on last year’s Rangers list). At 26, he’s not a traditional prospect, but he pitched through a torn UCL his final season in college, and the Rangers drafted him as a draft-and-rehab guy. A control pitcher who relies on changing speeds effectively, King throws harder than most fringe prospects of this type, and throwing 93-94 mph instead of 90-91 mph is helpful. There’s probably not a high ceiling here, but ZiPS gives King a puncher’s chance at having a real major league career at the back of a rotation.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Joey Gallo L 27 RF 488 412 71 85 19 2 32 78 69 187 6 2
Nick Solak R 26 2B 620 558 79 149 26 2 16 76 49 129 11 2
Sam Huff R 23 C 477 447 56 109 21 2 20 56 24 156 4 7
Nate Lowe L 25 1B 526 463 67 120 22 1 23 64 58 137 3 1
Leody Taveras B 22 CF 584 532 68 129 23 6 11 40 46 143 27 8
Danny Santana B 30 CF 464 430 61 105 25 4 18 65 26 134 16 5
Elvis Andrus R 32 SS 548 509 65 130 26 3 11 50 31 82 15 7
Rougned Odor L 27 2B 566 516 73 110 23 2 30 96 38 169 9 7
Shin-Soo Choo L 38 DH 494 430 58 103 18 1 16 48 50 127 14 3
Ronald Guzmán L 26 1B 453 407 53 97 19 2 17 54 38 124 3 1
Derek Dietrich L 31 2B 407 349 49 79 15 2 14 47 34 104 2 2
David Dahl L 27 LF 430 393 52 99 18 6 16 50 29 127 5 3
Anderson Tejeda B 23 SS 392 368 39 84 17 5 12 43 20 130 15 7
Willie Calhoun L 26 LF 528 485 59 123 23 3 20 72 36 81 2 1
Hunter Cole R 28 RF 313 287 34 67 13 3 10 35 23 91 1 2
Yohel Pozo R 24 C 424 402 39 95 20 1 7 35 15 54 2 1
Aramis Garcia R 28 C 430 398 44 85 18 2 14 49 26 142 0 1
Isiah Kiner-Falefa R 26 C 491 450 53 115 20 4 6 34 30 80 12 5
Josh Jung R 23 3B 617 566 63 136 32 0 8 52 39 125 10 3
Henry Ramos B 29 RF 396 369 43 96 19 2 10 45 22 78 4 3
Jose Trevino R 28 C 334 315 33 71 18 0 6 30 12 59 1 0
Sherten Apostel R 22 3B 466 424 49 89 16 2 15 47 35 148 1 1
Andrew Romine B 35 SS 306 284 34 67 11 2 3 18 16 65 7 3
Jax Biggers L 24 2B 284 255 28 59 7 1 2 16 22 53 8 6
Jason Martin L 25 LF 452 413 51 97 20 5 11 47 34 118 9 7
Steele Walker L 24 CF 528 483 52 110 24 5 10 52 31 111 9 7
Matt Whatley R 25 C 330 294 31 60 10 1 4 23 26 85 9 5
Yadiel Rivera R 29 SS 318 297 30 60 9 1 7 29 15 93 10 3
Charlie Culberson R 32 LF 249 233 26 54 10 2 6 29 12 70 2 1
Ryan Dorow R 25 3B 499 448 49 91 16 2 10 40 39 164 7 3
Blake Swihart B 29 C 263 240 30 48 7 1 7 27 21 78 2 1
Adolis Garcia R 28 RF 458 428 54 96 21 3 18 62 20 141 10 7
Eli White R 27 SS 482 438 50 97 20 3 8 37 33 141 11 5
Charles Leblanc R 25 3B 535 495 55 114 19 3 9 43 36 134 3 3
Diosbel Arias R 24 2B 525 479 50 111 21 3 5 37 38 131 4 5
Yanio Perez R 25 RF 462 429 39 98 14 1 7 32 25 119 5 5
Jeff Mathis R 38 C 228 212 16 37 6 1 5 19 14 84 2 0
Jim Adduci L 36 1B 380 356 39 87 16 2 7 40 19 96 7 3
Elier Hernandez R 26 LF 478 446 40 90 17 2 6 34 22 144 5 5

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Joey Gallo .206 .330 .495 121 .289 .275 5.6 1 2.3 Phil Plantier
Nick Solak .267 .331 .407 100 .140 .322 5.1 -4 1.9 Cass Michaels
Sam Huff .244 .289 .434 93 .190 .328 4.2 6 1.9 Bill Bathe
Nate Lowe .259 .344 .460 117 .201 .320 5.8 0 1.9 Mario Valdez
Leody Taveras .242 .302 .370 82 .128 .312 4.2 6 1.5 Jason Repko
Danny Santana .244 .289 .447 96 .202 .313 4.8 1 1.4 Brant Brown
Elvis Andrus .255 .299 .383 84 .128 .286 4.2 0 1.1 Orlando Cabrera
Rougned Odor .213 .274 .440 90 .227 .252 4.0 0 1.0 Corey Erickson
Shin-Soo Choo .240 .332 .398 98 .158 .303 4.9 0 0.9 George Watkins
Ronald Guzmán .238 .311 .420 97 .182 .301 4.7 3 0.9 Mike Maksudian
Derek Dietrich .226 .332 .401 99 .175 .281 4.6 -7 0.7 Bernie Allen
David Dahl .252 .305 .450 102 .198 .332 4.9 -2 0.7 Brant Brown
Anderson Tejeda .228 .270 .399 79 .171 .319 3.8 1 0.6 Jim Opie
Willie Calhoun .254 .309 .437 100 .184 .268 4.9 -5 0.5 Frank Bellino
Hunter Cole .233 .291 .404 87 .171 .306 4.0 5 0.5 Keith Williams
Yohel Pozo .236 .267 .343 65 .107 .258 3.2 5 0.4 Jon-Mark Sprowl
Aramis Garcia .214 .266 .374 72 .161 .293 3.4 1 0.3 Alvin Colina
Isiah Kiner-Falefa .256 .311 .358 82 .102 .299 4.1 -8 0.3 Johnny Monell
Josh Jung .240 .298 .339 73 .099 .296 3.7 2 0.3 Mike Lowell
Henry Ramos .260 .302 .404 90 .144 .306 4.4 1 0.3 Chris James
Jose Trevino .225 .253 .340 60 .114 .260 3.0 5 0.1 Jason Brown
Sherten Apostel .210 .277 .363 73 .153 .284 3.4 2 0.1 Travis Metcalf
Andrew Romine .236 .283 .320 64 .085 .296 3.2 2 0.1 Garry Templeton
Jax Biggers .231 .295 .290 61 .059 .285 2.8 5 0.1 Rod Booker
Jason Martin .235 .293 .387 83 .153 .303 3.9 2 0.0 John Skurla
Steele Walker .228 .281 .360 73 .133 .276 3.4 1 0.0 Cory Sullivan
Matt Whatley .204 .278 .286 54 .082 .273 2.7 4 0.0 Patrick Arlis
Yadiel Rivera .202 .244 .310 49 .108 .269 2.7 7 0.0 Chris Petersen
Charlie Culberson .232 .274 .369 67 .137 .306 3.6 3 -0.2 Junior Spivey
Ryan Dorow .203 .277 .315 61 .112 .296 3.0 6 -0.1 Chris Saunders
Blake Swihart .200 .266 .325 60 .125 .265 2.9 0 -0.2 Paul Chiaffredo
Adolis Garcia .224 .267 .414 82 .189 .290 3.7 2 -0.2 Kenny Jackson
Eli White .221 .285 .336 68 .114 .308 3.3 -3 -0.2 Gookie Dawkins
Charles Leblanc .230 .282 .335 68 .105 .298 3.3 1 -0.4 Mendy Lopez
Diosbel Arias .232 .291 .319 67 .088 .309 3.1 -2 -0.7 Brad Wellman
Yanio Perez .228 .277 .315 61 .086 .300 2.9 5 -0.9 Kevin Hankerd
Jeff Mathis .175 .224 .283 37 .108 .260 2.2 -2 -1.0 Raul Chavez
Jim Adduci .244 .282 .360 73 .115 .316 3.7 -4 -1.1 Jalal Leach
Elier Hernandez .202 .246 .289 45 .087 .284 2.3 -5 -3.0 Matt Bokemeier

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Corey Kluber R 35 9 7 3.87 20 20 118.7 112 51 17 29 116 3.90
Kohei Arihara R 28 9 9 4.65 27 27 158.7 174 82 25 35 110 4.65
Kyle Gibson R 33 8 9 4.78 26 24 137.3 143 73 20 53 122 4.59
Dane Dunning R 26 4 4 4.41 18 18 87.7 86 43 11 36 81 4.37
Tyler Phillips R 23 10 12 5.09 24 23 123.7 140 70 23 30 83 5.15
Kolby Allard L 23 7 9 5.11 29 27 132.0 139 75 22 52 113 4.95
José Leclerc R 27 3 2 3.72 55 0 55.7 41 23 6 34 75 3.93
Jonathan Hernández R 24 8 9 4.82 43 14 102.7 103 55 14 48 93 4.75
Brock Burke L 24 5 6 5.11 22 22 104.0 113 59 17 38 79 5.06
Yohander Méndez L 26 5 6 5.10 27 20 109.3 119 62 19 48 96 5.14
John King L 26 3 3 4.85 13 13 65.0 70 35 10 23 53 4.80
Brett Martin L 26 3 3 4.06 57 0 64.3 63 29 7 25 58 4.10
Joe Gatto R 26 6 8 5.08 31 16 95.7 98 54 11 59 76 5.12
Joe Palumbo L 26 2 3 4.94 15 12 58.3 58 32 9 28 57 4.83
Kyle Cody R 26 3 4 4.97 11 11 54.3 57 30 7 30 45 5.08
Joely Rodríguez L 29 3 2 3.99 49 0 49.7 45 22 5 19 53 3.68
Jordan Lyles R 30 7 9 5.30 31 21 124.0 131 73 24 45 114 5.04
Jesse Chavez R 37 2 2 4.50 45 3 62.0 63 31 11 17 57 4.57
Brett de Geus R 23 4 4 4.56 30 3 53.3 53 27 6 26 46 4.61
Edinson Vólquez R 37 3 4 5.28 15 10 44.3 46 26 6 24 35 5.12
Edubray Ramos R 28 3 3 4.59 55 1 49.0 47 25 7 20 50 4.28
Juan Nicasio R 34 3 2 4.46 41 0 40.3 41 20 6 13 38 4.27
Taylor Jungmann R 31 2 3 5.44 11 9 46.3 48 28 6 33 40 5.47
Matt Bush R 35 3 2 4.50 36 0 36.0 35 18 6 14 36 4.68
Demarcus Evans R 24 2 2 4.54 40 0 41.7 34 21 5 29 51 4.60
Joe Kuzia R 27 3 3 4.59 38 0 49.0 50 25 6 22 43 4.55
Taylor Hearn L 26 3 4 5.59 23 14 74.0 72 46 14 44 82 5.37
Art Warren R 28 3 3 4.75 40 0 41.7 39 22 5 27 42 4.88
Brian Flynn L 31 4 5 5.24 28 4 67.0 74 39 11 30 50 5.34
Nick Gardewine R 27 1 1 4.94 23 0 23.7 23 13 4 11 25 4.79
Taylor Guerrieri R 28 2 3 5.29 38 6 68.0 71 40 11 35 56 5.40
Jharel Cotton R 29 4 6 5.70 21 17 94.7 100 60 21 41 89 5.61
Tim Dillard R 37 5 6 5.62 23 12 89.7 105 56 17 29 56 5.50
Kyle Bird L 28 3 3 4.97 45 1 58.0 57 32 8 34 55 5.04
Matt Wivinis R 27 4 4 4.87 38 0 48.0 47 26 7 27 46 5.03
Shane Carle R 29 3 3 5.01 42 1 55.7 58 31 7 27 43 4.89
Ricardo Rodriguez R 28 1 2 5.12 30 0 31.7 34 18 6 10 27 5.07
Jason Bahr R 26 6 9 5.79 23 23 101.0 110 65 19 54 87 5.68
Stephen Villines R 25 3 3 4.95 46 0 63.7 64 35 10 28 59 4.88
Collin Wiles R 27 4 6 5.87 16 14 72.0 85 47 15 27 53 5.71
Luis Ortiz R 25 4 7 5.85 19 16 80.0 94 52 15 36 61 5.59
Wei-Chieh Huang R 27 3 3 5.49 33 4 57.3 57 35 11 35 61 5.53
Ryder Ryan R 26 3 3 5.28 34 1 46.0 46 27 7 27 42 5.29
Jimmy Herget R 27 3 3 5.22 55 1 60.3 59 35 10 35 59 5.27
Esmerling Vasquez R 37 1 3 6.65 8 5 21.7 24 16 5 13 20 6.27
Joe Barlow R 25 3 4 5.30 50 0 52.7 46 31 8 41 64 5.23
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 36 3 5 6.04 17 11 67.0 79 45 15 24 48 5.91
Brandon Mann L 37 2 3 5.72 27 1 39.3 42 25 7 22 32 5.77
Wes Benjamin L 27 5 7 6.04 22 18 98.3 117 66 21 39 73 5.81
Reed Garrett R 28 2 3 5.46 49 0 56.0 61 34 9 31 46 5.45
Locke St. John L 28 3 5 5.81 43 0 52.7 54 34 11 29 54 5.67

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Corey Kluber 8.8 2.2 1.3 5.9% 23.6% .291 114 87 2.2 Ed Whitson
Kohei Arihara 6.2 2.0 1.4 5.1% 16.2% .296 95 105 1.8 Vern Law
Kyle Gibson 8.0 3.5 1.3 8.8% 20.2% .305 93 108 1.3 Al Fitzmorris
Dane Dunning 8.3 3.7 1.1 9.4% 21.1% .299 100 100 1.2 John Denny
Tyler Phillips 6.0 2.2 1.7 5.6% 15.4% .296 87 115 0.7 Joe Coleman
Kolby Allard 7.7 3.5 1.5 8.9% 19.4% .300 87 115 0.7 Thomas Biko
José Leclerc 12.1 5.5 1.0 14.0% 30.9% .282 119 84 0.7 Brian Wilson
Jonathan Hernández 8.2 4.2 1.2 10.5% 20.3% .300 92 109 0.7 Eulogio Delacruz
Brock Burke 6.8 3.3 1.5 8.2% 17.1% .299 87 115 0.6 Jeff Mutis
Yohander Méndez 7.9 4.0 1.6 9.8% 19.5% .309 87 115 0.6 Eric Hillman
John King 7.3 3.2 1.4 8.0% 18.5% .305 91 109 0.5 Lee Guetterman
Brett Martin 8.1 3.5 1.0 9.0% 20.8% .301 109 92 0.5 Wilbur Wood
Joe Gatto 7.1 5.6 1.0 13.3% 17.2% .299 87 115 0.5 Gordon Rhodes
Joe Palumbo 8.8 4.3 1.4 10.8% 21.9% .301 90 111 0.4 Pete Richert
Kyle Cody 7.5 5.0 1.2 12.0% 18.0% .305 89 112 0.4 Dan Gakeler
Joely Rodríguez 9.6 3.4 0.9 8.9% 24.9% .301 111 90 0.4 Mike Venafro
Jordan Lyles 8.3 3.3 1.7 8.3% 21.0% .301 84 120 0.4 Mike Grace
Jesse Chavez 8.3 2.5 1.6 6.4% 21.6% .294 98 102 0.3 Clint Brown
Brett de Geus 7.8 4.4 1.0 10.9% 19.2% .299 97 103 0.3 Gary Ross
Edinson Vólquez 7.1 4.9 1.2 11.9% 17.3% .296 84 119 0.1 Vern Kennedy
Edubray Ramos 9.2 3.7 1.3 9.4% 23.6% .299 96 104 0.1 Daryl Irvine
Juan Nicasio 8.5 2.9 1.3 7.5% 22.0% .304 99 101 0.1 Mark Williamson
Taylor Jungmann 7.8 6.4 1.2 15.0% 18.2% .304 81 123 0.1 Steve Barber
Matt Bush 9.0 3.5 1.5 8.9% 22.9% .293 98 102 0.1 Fred Gladding
Demarcus Evans 11.0 6.3 1.1 15.4% 27.1% .290 98 102 0.1 Brad Voyles
Joe Kuzia 7.9 4.0 1.1 10.1% 19.7% .306 96 104 0.1 Jim York
Taylor Hearn 10.0 5.4 1.7 13.1% 24.3% .301 79 126 0.0 Jeff Tabaka
Art Warren 9.1 5.8 1.1 14.1% 22.0% .298 93 107 0.0 Bruce Dal Canton
Brian Flynn 6.7 4.0 1.5 9.9% 16.4% .301 85 118 0.0 Gene Bearden
Nick Gardewine 9.5 4.2 1.5 10.6% 24.0% .302 90 112 -0.1 Bill Zuber
Taylor Guerrieri 7.4 4.6 1.5 11.3% 18.1% .296 84 120 -0.1 Jim Ray
Jharel Cotton 8.5 3.9 2.0 9.7% 21.1% .296 78 129 -0.1 Brian Powell
Tim Dillard 5.6 2.9 1.7 7.3% 14.0% .299 79 127 -0.1 Larry Benton
Kyle Bird 8.5 5.3 1.2 12.8% 20.8% .299 89 112 -0.1 Jim Roland
Matt Wivinis 8.6 5.1 1.3 12.4% 21.1% .296 91 109 -0.1 Casey Daigle
Shane Carle 7.0 4.4 1.1 10.8% 17.1% .298 88 113 -0.1 Weston Weber
Ricardo Rodriguez 7.7 2.8 1.7 7.2% 19.4% .298 87 116 -0.1 Chuck Hartenstein
Jason Bahr 7.8 4.8 1.7 11.6% 18.7% .303 76 131 -0.1 Jeff Fulchino
Stephen Villines 8.3 4.0 1.4 9.9% 20.8% .297 90 112 -0.2 Gary Ross
Collin Wiles 6.6 3.4 1.9 8.3% 16.3% .308 75 133 -0.2 Don August
Luis Ortiz 6.9 4.1 1.7 9.8% 16.6% .313 76 132 -0.2 Dennis Springer
Wei-Chieh Huang 9.6 5.5 1.7 13.3% 23.2% .301 81 124 -0.2 Ryan Baker
Ryder Ryan 8.2 5.3 1.4 12.8% 19.9% .295 84 119 -0.2 Tom Dukes
Jimmy Herget 8.8 5.2 1.5 12.8% 21.5% .293 85 118 -0.3 Mike Cather
Esmerling Vasquez 8.3 5.4 2.1 12.9% 19.8% .306 67 150 -0.3 Bobby Witt
Joe Barlow 10.9 7.0 1.4 16.7% 26.1% .295 84 120 -0.3 Heathcliff Slocumb
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 6.4 3.2 2.0 7.9% 15.8% .302 73 136 -0.3 Dennis Springer
Brandon Mann 7.3 5.0 1.6 12.1% 17.6% .297 77 129 -0.4 Fritz Ostermueller
Wes Benjamin 6.7 3.6 1.9 8.7% 16.3% .310 73 136 -0.4 Marty Reed
Reed Garrett 7.4 5.0 1.4 12.0% 17.8% .306 81 123 -0.5 Jose Segura
Locke St. John 9.2 5.0 1.9 12.1% 22.5% .301 76 131 -0.6 Danny Young

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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The Congo Hammer
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The Congo Hammer

Oof, a .206 average for Gallo is the OPTIMISTIC projection?

Interesting that Danny Santana and Dahl both got the Brant Brown comp, since I don’t think they’re too similar to each other… Santana seems especially different as Brown never stole more than 3 bases in a season.