2021 ZiPS Projections: Texas Rangers
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers.
Batters
One initial note: ZiPS sees Globe Life Field as a fairly neutral park that leans just a skosh to the pitching side. We still have very little data about how the park plays and basing park factors on expectations tends to be a rather poor prognosticating urge.
The good news for Rangers fans is that, across the board and more than any other team in baseball, ZiPS sees Texas’ lineup in a more optimistic light than Steamer does. The bad news, of course, is that this represents the sunnier take on 2021. There’s no getting around the fact that this team will be in a fierce competition to grab the first pick in the 2022 amateur draft.
ZiPS anticipates a much better season in store for Joey Gallo, though one that just makes him a credible middle-of-the-order slugger rather than meeting any remaining star potential. It hurts to say it, but Gallo’s no longer all that young and it’s getting a little late in the day to talk about his future stardom. He’s put a lot of work into his plate discipline — he’s much better at laying off bad pitches than he was in his early years — but the fact remains that contact is a problem, and it’s unlikely to change at this point. That’s always going to put a hard ceiling on his batting average when he’s not having immense BABIP luck. Stardom would practically require him to smack 50 homers a year. A 40-homer Gallo pushes a team towards a pennant, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him doing that… in another uniform before next year’s ZiPS projections.
Nick Solak’s 2020 was a nearly-unmitigated disaster. He took a step backward in nearly every aspect of the game and as a super-sub, played a whole bunch of positions equally poorly, ending up with a profile that was less like Tony the Tiger (Phillips) and more like Tony the Tiger (cereal spokestiger). Now, his year obviously wasn’t grrrreeeat, but there were a lot of reasons to like him before last season. And really, the Rangers are probably going to need until May or June 2022 to win 90 games, so it’s not like they have any better choices than giving Solak another go.
It’s an open question as to whether Sam Huff will catch in the majors, but ZiPS is at least a believer in his bat. There’s no reason to just stick him in the lineup in 2021 — Huff needs high-minors experience to hone his defensive game and the Rangers are going nowhere — and the Rangers won’t. But he’s one of the few offensive bright spots in the organization. Also on the prospects front, don’t get too alarmed by the Josh Jung projection. He’s a 2019 draftee, after all, and his professional experience consists mainly of 40 games in A-ball. One shouldn’t expect a particularly exciting major league projection in the short-term based on that set of facts. Jung’s mainly here because he’s on our depth chart, though not because of any nefarious plot by my colleague Jason Martinez, but because of the abysmal position player depth throughout the organization.
Nate Lowe at least ought to be an upgrade on what Texas has been trotting out at first and hopefully, the team will give him a full shot rather than relegating him to a timeshare with Ronald Guzmán. Thankfully, both players hit left-handed, giving the team less opportunity to force an awkward platoon.
This is a bottom-five offense, arguably the worst in baseball, even. I’m going to have to check my inventory of zeroes; I used so many on that depth chart graphic that I may not have enough in reserve to run the Pirates.
Pitchers
Kyle Gibson is the team’s ace. That’s it, that’s the post.
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OK, I’m probably not getting off the hook that easily. Gibson is a suitable fourth starter for a team contending for a Wild Card spot, but when he’s your likely Opening Day starter, you’re going to have a bad time. If not for an ERA comfortably over five in 2020 (with peripherals to match), Gibson likely would have already joined former teammates Mike Minor and Lance Lynn in parks that look less like a home-and-garden center when the roof is closed. ZiPS does project something of a bounce-back campaign from him, just not anything terribly exciting.
Historically, the Rangers have put a lot of faith in pitchers from overseas, which has proven beneficial, from investing a large sum of cash for Yu Darvish’s services to bringing Colby Lewis back from Japan before repatriating failed prospects was cool. The latest signing along these lines is Kohei Arihara, who comes with practically no risk on a two-year, $6.2 million contract (plus the 20% posting fee). Arihara relies more on control and a deep repertoire than explosive stuff, so the upside for the Rangers is nowhere near what it was for Darvish. ZiPS doesn’t even give Arihara a projection on the same level as what Kwang Hyun Kim got before 2020, but it does see him as a legitimate mid-rotation hurler.
Dane Dunning is probably the best starting pitcher on the team and the only one with a projected ERA+ of 100. That projection is a bump from his forecast with the White Sox, reflecting a park that ZiPS sees as a better fit. Dunning does come with some risk — he’s 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery and doesn’t have a whole lot of major league experience as a result — but he’s probably the most interesting pitcher on the roster in terms of upside potential.
You don’t fully see it in the 2021 projection, but one pitcher ZiPS is interested in is John King, a name that you won’t find on many prospect lists unless they go really deep (he made Eric Longenhagen’s honorable mentions on last year’s Rangers list). At 26, he’s not a traditional prospect, but he pitched through a torn UCL his final season in college, and the Rangers drafted him as a draft-and-rehab guy. A control pitcher who relies on changing speeds effectively, King throws harder than most fringe prospects of this type, and throwing 93-94 mph instead of 90-91 mph is helpful. There’s probably not a high ceiling here, but ZiPS gives King a puncher’s chance at having a real major league career at the back of a rotation.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joey Gallo | L | 27 | RF | 488 | 412 | 71 | 85 | 19 | 2 | 32 | 78 | 69 | 187 | 6 | 2 |
Nick Solak | R | 26 | 2B | 620 | 558 | 79 | 149 | 26 | 2 | 16 | 76 | 49 | 129 | 11 | 2 |
Sam Huff | R | 23 | C | 477 | 447 | 56 | 109 | 21 | 2 | 20 | 56 | 24 | 156 | 4 | 7 |
Nate Lowe | L | 25 | 1B | 526 | 463 | 67 | 120 | 22 | 1 | 23 | 64 | 58 | 137 | 3 | 1 |
Leody Taveras | B | 22 | CF | 584 | 532 | 68 | 129 | 23 | 6 | 11 | 40 | 46 | 143 | 27 | 8 |
Danny Santana | B | 30 | CF | 464 | 430 | 61 | 105 | 25 | 4 | 18 | 65 | 26 | 134 | 16 | 5 |
Elvis Andrus | R | 32 | SS | 548 | 509 | 65 | 130 | 26 | 3 | 11 | 50 | 31 | 82 | 15 | 7 |
Rougned Odor | L | 27 | 2B | 566 | 516 | 73 | 110 | 23 | 2 | 30 | 96 | 38 | 169 | 9 | 7 |
Shin-Soo Choo | L | 38 | DH | 494 | 430 | 58 | 103 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 48 | 50 | 127 | 14 | 3 |
Ronald Guzmán | L | 26 | 1B | 453 | 407 | 53 | 97 | 19 | 2 | 17 | 54 | 38 | 124 | 3 | 1 |
Derek Dietrich | L | 31 | 2B | 407 | 349 | 49 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 47 | 34 | 104 | 2 | 2 |
David Dahl | L | 27 | LF | 430 | 393 | 52 | 99 | 18 | 6 | 16 | 50 | 29 | 127 | 5 | 3 |
Anderson Tejeda | B | 23 | SS | 392 | 368 | 39 | 84 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 43 | 20 | 130 | 15 | 7 |
Willie Calhoun | L | 26 | LF | 528 | 485 | 59 | 123 | 23 | 3 | 20 | 72 | 36 | 81 | 2 | 1 |
Hunter Cole | R | 28 | RF | 313 | 287 | 34 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 23 | 91 | 1 | 2 |
Yohel Pozo | R | 24 | C | 424 | 402 | 39 | 95 | 20 | 1 | 7 | 35 | 15 | 54 | 2 | 1 |
Aramis Garcia | R | 28 | C | 430 | 398 | 44 | 85 | 18 | 2 | 14 | 49 | 26 | 142 | 0 | 1 |
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | R | 26 | C | 491 | 450 | 53 | 115 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 34 | 30 | 80 | 12 | 5 |
Josh Jung | R | 23 | 3B | 617 | 566 | 63 | 136 | 32 | 0 | 8 | 52 | 39 | 125 | 10 | 3 |
Henry Ramos | B | 29 | RF | 396 | 369 | 43 | 96 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 45 | 22 | 78 | 4 | 3 |
Jose Trevino | R | 28 | C | 334 | 315 | 33 | 71 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 30 | 12 | 59 | 1 | 0 |
Sherten Apostel | R | 22 | 3B | 466 | 424 | 49 | 89 | 16 | 2 | 15 | 47 | 35 | 148 | 1 | 1 |
Andrew Romine | B | 35 | SS | 306 | 284 | 34 | 67 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 65 | 7 | 3 |
Jax Biggers | L | 24 | 2B | 284 | 255 | 28 | 59 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 22 | 53 | 8 | 6 |
Jason Martin | L | 25 | LF | 452 | 413 | 51 | 97 | 20 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 34 | 118 | 9 | 7 |
Steele Walker | L | 24 | CF | 528 | 483 | 52 | 110 | 24 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 31 | 111 | 9 | 7 |
Matt Whatley | R | 25 | C | 330 | 294 | 31 | 60 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 26 | 85 | 9 | 5 |
Yadiel Rivera | R | 29 | SS | 318 | 297 | 30 | 60 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 15 | 93 | 10 | 3 |
Charlie Culberson | R | 32 | LF | 249 | 233 | 26 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 12 | 70 | 2 | 1 |
Ryan Dorow | R | 25 | 3B | 499 | 448 | 49 | 91 | 16 | 2 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 164 | 7 | 3 |
Blake Swihart | B | 29 | C | 263 | 240 | 30 | 48 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 27 | 21 | 78 | 2 | 1 |
Adolis Garcia | R | 28 | RF | 458 | 428 | 54 | 96 | 21 | 3 | 18 | 62 | 20 | 141 | 10 | 7 |
Eli White | R | 27 | SS | 482 | 438 | 50 | 97 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 37 | 33 | 141 | 11 | 5 |
Charles Leblanc | R | 25 | 3B | 535 | 495 | 55 | 114 | 19 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 36 | 134 | 3 | 3 |
Diosbel Arias | R | 24 | 2B | 525 | 479 | 50 | 111 | 21 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 38 | 131 | 4 | 5 |
Yanio Perez | R | 25 | RF | 462 | 429 | 39 | 98 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 119 | 5 | 5 |
Jeff Mathis | R | 38 | C | 228 | 212 | 16 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 14 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
Jim Adduci | L | 36 | 1B | 380 | 356 | 39 | 87 | 16 | 2 | 7 | 40 | 19 | 96 | 7 | 3 |
Elier Hernandez | R | 26 | LF | 478 | 446 | 40 | 90 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 34 | 22 | 144 | 5 | 5 |
Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | RC/27 | Def | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joey Gallo | .206 | .330 | .495 | 121 | .289 | .275 | 5.6 | 1 | 2.3 | Phil Plantier |
Nick Solak | .267 | .331 | .407 | 100 | .140 | .322 | 5.1 | -4 | 1.9 | Cass Michaels |
Sam Huff | .244 | .289 | .434 | 93 | .190 | .328 | 4.2 | 6 | 1.9 | Bill Bathe |
Nate Lowe | .259 | .344 | .460 | 117 | .201 | .320 | 5.8 | 0 | 1.9 | Mario Valdez |
Leody Taveras | .242 | .302 | .370 | 82 | .128 | .312 | 4.2 | 6 | 1.5 | Jason Repko |
Danny Santana | .244 | .289 | .447 | 96 | .202 | .313 | 4.8 | 1 | 1.4 | Brant Brown |
Elvis Andrus | .255 | .299 | .383 | 84 | .128 | .286 | 4.2 | 0 | 1.1 | Orlando Cabrera |
Rougned Odor | .213 | .274 | .440 | 90 | .227 | .252 | 4.0 | 0 | 1.0 | Corey Erickson |
Shin-Soo Choo | .240 | .332 | .398 | 98 | .158 | .303 | 4.9 | 0 | 0.9 | George Watkins |
Ronald Guzmán | .238 | .311 | .420 | 97 | .182 | .301 | 4.7 | 3 | 0.9 | Mike Maksudian |
Derek Dietrich | .226 | .332 | .401 | 99 | .175 | .281 | 4.6 | -7 | 0.7 | Bernie Allen |
David Dahl | .252 | .305 | .450 | 102 | .198 | .332 | 4.9 | -2 | 0.7 | Brant Brown |
Anderson Tejeda | .228 | .270 | .399 | 79 | .171 | .319 | 3.8 | 1 | 0.6 | Jim Opie |
Willie Calhoun | .254 | .309 | .437 | 100 | .184 | .268 | 4.9 | -5 | 0.5 | Frank Bellino |
Hunter Cole | .233 | .291 | .404 | 87 | .171 | .306 | 4.0 | 5 | 0.5 | Keith Williams |
Yohel Pozo | .236 | .267 | .343 | 65 | .107 | .258 | 3.2 | 5 | 0.4 | Jon-Mark Sprowl |
Aramis Garcia | .214 | .266 | .374 | 72 | .161 | .293 | 3.4 | 1 | 0.3 | Alvin Colina |
Isiah Kiner-Falefa | .256 | .311 | .358 | 82 | .102 | .299 | 4.1 | -8 | 0.3 | Johnny Monell |
Josh Jung | .240 | .298 | .339 | 73 | .099 | .296 | 3.7 | 2 | 0.3 | Mike Lowell |
Henry Ramos | .260 | .302 | .404 | 90 | .144 | .306 | 4.4 | 1 | 0.3 | Chris James |
Jose Trevino | .225 | .253 | .340 | 60 | .114 | .260 | 3.0 | 5 | 0.1 | Jason Brown |
Sherten Apostel | .210 | .277 | .363 | 73 | .153 | .284 | 3.4 | 2 | 0.1 | Travis Metcalf |
Andrew Romine | .236 | .283 | .320 | 64 | .085 | .296 | 3.2 | 2 | 0.1 | Garry Templeton |
Jax Biggers | .231 | .295 | .290 | 61 | .059 | .285 | 2.8 | 5 | 0.1 | Rod Booker |
Jason Martin | .235 | .293 | .387 | 83 | .153 | .303 | 3.9 | 2 | 0.0 | John Skurla |
Steele Walker | .228 | .281 | .360 | 73 | .133 | .276 | 3.4 | 1 | 0.0 | Cory Sullivan |
Matt Whatley | .204 | .278 | .286 | 54 | .082 | .273 | 2.7 | 4 | 0.0 | Patrick Arlis |
Yadiel Rivera | .202 | .244 | .310 | 49 | .108 | .269 | 2.7 | 7 | 0.0 | Chris Petersen |
Charlie Culberson | .232 | .274 | .369 | 67 | .137 | .306 | 3.6 | 3 | -0.2 | Junior Spivey |
Ryan Dorow | .203 | .277 | .315 | 61 | .112 | .296 | 3.0 | 6 | -0.1 | Chris Saunders |
Blake Swihart | .200 | .266 | .325 | 60 | .125 | .265 | 2.9 | 0 | -0.2 | Paul Chiaffredo |
Adolis Garcia | .224 | .267 | .414 | 82 | .189 | .290 | 3.7 | 2 | -0.2 | Kenny Jackson |
Eli White | .221 | .285 | .336 | 68 | .114 | .308 | 3.3 | -3 | -0.2 | Gookie Dawkins |
Charles Leblanc | .230 | .282 | .335 | 68 | .105 | .298 | 3.3 | 1 | -0.4 | Mendy Lopez |
Diosbel Arias | .232 | .291 | .319 | 67 | .088 | .309 | 3.1 | -2 | -0.7 | Brad Wellman |
Yanio Perez | .228 | .277 | .315 | 61 | .086 | .300 | 2.9 | 5 | -0.9 | Kevin Hankerd |
Jeff Mathis | .175 | .224 | .283 | 37 | .108 | .260 | 2.2 | -2 | -1.0 | Raul Chavez |
Jim Adduci | .244 | .282 | .360 | 73 | .115 | .316 | 3.7 | -4 | -1.1 | Jalal Leach |
Elier Hernandez | .202 | .246 | .289 | 45 | .087 | .284 | 2.3 | -5 | -3.0 | Matt Bokemeier |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Corey Kluber | R | 35 | 9 | 7 | 3.87 | 20 | 20 | 118.7 | 112 | 51 | 17 | 29 | 116 | 3.90 |
Kohei Arihara | R | 28 | 9 | 9 | 4.65 | 27 | 27 | 158.7 | 174 | 82 | 25 | 35 | 110 | 4.65 |
Kyle Gibson | R | 33 | 8 | 9 | 4.78 | 26 | 24 | 137.3 | 143 | 73 | 20 | 53 | 122 | 4.59 |
Dane Dunning | R | 26 | 4 | 4 | 4.41 | 18 | 18 | 87.7 | 86 | 43 | 11 | 36 | 81 | 4.37 |
Tyler Phillips | R | 23 | 10 | 12 | 5.09 | 24 | 23 | 123.7 | 140 | 70 | 23 | 30 | 83 | 5.15 |
Kolby Allard | L | 23 | 7 | 9 | 5.11 | 29 | 27 | 132.0 | 139 | 75 | 22 | 52 | 113 | 4.95 |
José Leclerc | R | 27 | 3 | 2 | 3.72 | 55 | 0 | 55.7 | 41 | 23 | 6 | 34 | 75 | 3.93 |
Jonathan Hernández | R | 24 | 8 | 9 | 4.82 | 43 | 14 | 102.7 | 103 | 55 | 14 | 48 | 93 | 4.75 |
Brock Burke | L | 24 | 5 | 6 | 5.11 | 22 | 22 | 104.0 | 113 | 59 | 17 | 38 | 79 | 5.06 |
Yohander Méndez | L | 26 | 5 | 6 | 5.10 | 27 | 20 | 109.3 | 119 | 62 | 19 | 48 | 96 | 5.14 |
John King | L | 26 | 3 | 3 | 4.85 | 13 | 13 | 65.0 | 70 | 35 | 10 | 23 | 53 | 4.80 |
Brett Martin | L | 26 | 3 | 3 | 4.06 | 57 | 0 | 64.3 | 63 | 29 | 7 | 25 | 58 | 4.10 |
Joe Gatto | R | 26 | 6 | 8 | 5.08 | 31 | 16 | 95.7 | 98 | 54 | 11 | 59 | 76 | 5.12 |
Joe Palumbo | L | 26 | 2 | 3 | 4.94 | 15 | 12 | 58.3 | 58 | 32 | 9 | 28 | 57 | 4.83 |
Kyle Cody | R | 26 | 3 | 4 | 4.97 | 11 | 11 | 54.3 | 57 | 30 | 7 | 30 | 45 | 5.08 |
Joely Rodríguez | L | 29 | 3 | 2 | 3.99 | 49 | 0 | 49.7 | 45 | 22 | 5 | 19 | 53 | 3.68 |
Jordan Lyles | R | 30 | 7 | 9 | 5.30 | 31 | 21 | 124.0 | 131 | 73 | 24 | 45 | 114 | 5.04 |
Jesse Chavez | R | 37 | 2 | 2 | 4.50 | 45 | 3 | 62.0 | 63 | 31 | 11 | 17 | 57 | 4.57 |
Brett de Geus | R | 23 | 4 | 4 | 4.56 | 30 | 3 | 53.3 | 53 | 27 | 6 | 26 | 46 | 4.61 |
Edinson Vólquez | R | 37 | 3 | 4 | 5.28 | 15 | 10 | 44.3 | 46 | 26 | 6 | 24 | 35 | 5.12 |
Edubray Ramos | R | 28 | 3 | 3 | 4.59 | 55 | 1 | 49.0 | 47 | 25 | 7 | 20 | 50 | 4.28 |
Juan Nicasio | R | 34 | 3 | 2 | 4.46 | 41 | 0 | 40.3 | 41 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 38 | 4.27 |
Taylor Jungmann | R | 31 | 2 | 3 | 5.44 | 11 | 9 | 46.3 | 48 | 28 | 6 | 33 | 40 | 5.47 |
Matt Bush | R | 35 | 3 | 2 | 4.50 | 36 | 0 | 36.0 | 35 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 36 | 4.68 |
Demarcus Evans | R | 24 | 2 | 2 | 4.54 | 40 | 0 | 41.7 | 34 | 21 | 5 | 29 | 51 | 4.60 |
Joe Kuzia | R | 27 | 3 | 3 | 4.59 | 38 | 0 | 49.0 | 50 | 25 | 6 | 22 | 43 | 4.55 |
Taylor Hearn | L | 26 | 3 | 4 | 5.59 | 23 | 14 | 74.0 | 72 | 46 | 14 | 44 | 82 | 5.37 |
Art Warren | R | 28 | 3 | 3 | 4.75 | 40 | 0 | 41.7 | 39 | 22 | 5 | 27 | 42 | 4.88 |
Brian Flynn | L | 31 | 4 | 5 | 5.24 | 28 | 4 | 67.0 | 74 | 39 | 11 | 30 | 50 | 5.34 |
Nick Gardewine | R | 27 | 1 | 1 | 4.94 | 23 | 0 | 23.7 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 4.79 |
Taylor Guerrieri | R | 28 | 2 | 3 | 5.29 | 38 | 6 | 68.0 | 71 | 40 | 11 | 35 | 56 | 5.40 |
Jharel Cotton | R | 29 | 4 | 6 | 5.70 | 21 | 17 | 94.7 | 100 | 60 | 21 | 41 | 89 | 5.61 |
Tim Dillard | R | 37 | 5 | 6 | 5.62 | 23 | 12 | 89.7 | 105 | 56 | 17 | 29 | 56 | 5.50 |
Kyle Bird | L | 28 | 3 | 3 | 4.97 | 45 | 1 | 58.0 | 57 | 32 | 8 | 34 | 55 | 5.04 |
Matt Wivinis | R | 27 | 4 | 4 | 4.87 | 38 | 0 | 48.0 | 47 | 26 | 7 | 27 | 46 | 5.03 |
Shane Carle | R | 29 | 3 | 3 | 5.01 | 42 | 1 | 55.7 | 58 | 31 | 7 | 27 | 43 | 4.89 |
Ricardo Rodriguez | R | 28 | 1 | 2 | 5.12 | 30 | 0 | 31.7 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 5.07 |
Jason Bahr | R | 26 | 6 | 9 | 5.79 | 23 | 23 | 101.0 | 110 | 65 | 19 | 54 | 87 | 5.68 |
Stephen Villines | R | 25 | 3 | 3 | 4.95 | 46 | 0 | 63.7 | 64 | 35 | 10 | 28 | 59 | 4.88 |
Collin Wiles | R | 27 | 4 | 6 | 5.87 | 16 | 14 | 72.0 | 85 | 47 | 15 | 27 | 53 | 5.71 |
Luis Ortiz | R | 25 | 4 | 7 | 5.85 | 19 | 16 | 80.0 | 94 | 52 | 15 | 36 | 61 | 5.59 |
Wei-Chieh Huang | R | 27 | 3 | 3 | 5.49 | 33 | 4 | 57.3 | 57 | 35 | 11 | 35 | 61 | 5.53 |
Ryder Ryan | R | 26 | 3 | 3 | 5.28 | 34 | 1 | 46.0 | 46 | 27 | 7 | 27 | 42 | 5.29 |
Jimmy Herget | R | 27 | 3 | 3 | 5.22 | 55 | 1 | 60.3 | 59 | 35 | 10 | 35 | 59 | 5.27 |
Esmerling Vasquez | R | 37 | 1 | 3 | 6.65 | 8 | 5 | 21.7 | 24 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 6.27 |
Joe Barlow | R | 25 | 3 | 4 | 5.30 | 50 | 0 | 52.7 | 46 | 31 | 8 | 41 | 64 | 5.23 |
Austin Bibens-Dirkx | R | 36 | 3 | 5 | 6.04 | 17 | 11 | 67.0 | 79 | 45 | 15 | 24 | 48 | 5.91 |
Brandon Mann | L | 37 | 2 | 3 | 5.72 | 27 | 1 | 39.3 | 42 | 25 | 7 | 22 | 32 | 5.77 |
Wes Benjamin | L | 27 | 5 | 7 | 6.04 | 22 | 18 | 98.3 | 117 | 66 | 21 | 39 | 73 | 5.81 |
Reed Garrett | R | 28 | 2 | 3 | 5.46 | 49 | 0 | 56.0 | 61 | 34 | 9 | 31 | 46 | 5.45 |
Locke St. John | L | 28 | 3 | 5 | 5.81 | 43 | 0 | 52.7 | 54 | 34 | 11 | 29 | 54 | 5.67 |
Player | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% | BABIP | ERA+ | ERA- | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Corey Kluber | 8.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 5.9% | 23.6% | .291 | 114 | 87 | 2.2 | Ed Whitson |
Kohei Arihara | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 5.1% | 16.2% | .296 | 95 | 105 | 1.8 | Vern Law |
Kyle Gibson | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 8.8% | 20.2% | .305 | 93 | 108 | 1.3 | Al Fitzmorris |
Dane Dunning | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 9.4% | 21.1% | .299 | 100 | 100 | 1.2 | John Denny |
Tyler Phillips | 6.0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 5.6% | 15.4% | .296 | 87 | 115 | 0.7 | Joe Coleman |
Kolby Allard | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 8.9% | 19.4% | .300 | 87 | 115 | 0.7 | Thomas Biko |
José Leclerc | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 14.0% | 30.9% | .282 | 119 | 84 | 0.7 | Brian Wilson |
Jonathan Hernández | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10.5% | 20.3% | .300 | 92 | 109 | 0.7 | Eulogio Delacruz |
Brock Burke | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 8.2% | 17.1% | .299 | 87 | 115 | 0.6 | Jeff Mutis |
Yohander Méndez | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 9.8% | 19.5% | .309 | 87 | 115 | 0.6 | Eric Hillman |
John King | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 8.0% | 18.5% | .305 | 91 | 109 | 0.5 | Lee Guetterman |
Brett Martin | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 9.0% | 20.8% | .301 | 109 | 92 | 0.5 | Wilbur Wood |
Joe Gatto | 7.1 | 5.6 | 1.0 | 13.3% | 17.2% | .299 | 87 | 115 | 0.5 | Gordon Rhodes |
Joe Palumbo | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 10.8% | 21.9% | .301 | 90 | 111 | 0.4 | Pete Richert |
Kyle Cody | 7.5 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 12.0% | 18.0% | .305 | 89 | 112 | 0.4 | Dan Gakeler |
Joely Rodríguez | 9.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 8.9% | 24.9% | .301 | 111 | 90 | 0.4 | Mike Venafro |
Jordan Lyles | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 8.3% | 21.0% | .301 | 84 | 120 | 0.4 | Mike Grace |
Jesse Chavez | 8.3 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 6.4% | 21.6% | .294 | 98 | 102 | 0.3 | Clint Brown |
Brett de Geus | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 10.9% | 19.2% | .299 | 97 | 103 | 0.3 | Gary Ross |
Edinson Vólquez | 7.1 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 11.9% | 17.3% | .296 | 84 | 119 | 0.1 | Vern Kennedy |
Edubray Ramos | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 9.4% | 23.6% | .299 | 96 | 104 | 0.1 | Daryl Irvine |
Juan Nicasio | 8.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 7.5% | 22.0% | .304 | 99 | 101 | 0.1 | Mark Williamson |
Taylor Jungmann | 7.8 | 6.4 | 1.2 | 15.0% | 18.2% | .304 | 81 | 123 | 0.1 | Steve Barber |
Matt Bush | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 8.9% | 22.9% | .293 | 98 | 102 | 0.1 | Fred Gladding |
Demarcus Evans | 11.0 | 6.3 | 1.1 | 15.4% | 27.1% | .290 | 98 | 102 | 0.1 | Brad Voyles |
Joe Kuzia | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 10.1% | 19.7% | .306 | 96 | 104 | 0.1 | Jim York |
Taylor Hearn | 10.0 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 13.1% | 24.3% | .301 | 79 | 126 | 0.0 | Jeff Tabaka |
Art Warren | 9.1 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 14.1% | 22.0% | .298 | 93 | 107 | 0.0 | Bruce Dal Canton |
Brian Flynn | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 9.9% | 16.4% | .301 | 85 | 118 | 0.0 | Gene Bearden |
Nick Gardewine | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 10.6% | 24.0% | .302 | 90 | 112 | -0.1 | Bill Zuber |
Taylor Guerrieri | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 11.3% | 18.1% | .296 | 84 | 120 | -0.1 | Jim Ray |
Jharel Cotton | 8.5 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 9.7% | 21.1% | .296 | 78 | 129 | -0.1 | Brian Powell |
Tim Dillard | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 7.3% | 14.0% | .299 | 79 | 127 | -0.1 | Larry Benton |
Kyle Bird | 8.5 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 12.8% | 20.8% | .299 | 89 | 112 | -0.1 | Jim Roland |
Matt Wivinis | 8.6 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 12.4% | 21.1% | .296 | 91 | 109 | -0.1 | Casey Daigle |
Shane Carle | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 10.8% | 17.1% | .298 | 88 | 113 | -0.1 | Weston Weber |
Ricardo Rodriguez | 7.7 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 7.2% | 19.4% | .298 | 87 | 116 | -0.1 | Chuck Hartenstein |
Jason Bahr | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 11.6% | 18.7% | .303 | 76 | 131 | -0.1 | Jeff Fulchino |
Stephen Villines | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 9.9% | 20.8% | .297 | 90 | 112 | -0.2 | Gary Ross |
Collin Wiles | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 8.3% | 16.3% | .308 | 75 | 133 | -0.2 | Don August |
Luis Ortiz | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 9.8% | 16.6% | .313 | 76 | 132 | -0.2 | Dennis Springer |
Wei-Chieh Huang | 9.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 13.3% | 23.2% | .301 | 81 | 124 | -0.2 | Ryan Baker |
Ryder Ryan | 8.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 12.8% | 19.9% | .295 | 84 | 119 | -0.2 | Tom Dukes |
Jimmy Herget | 8.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 12.8% | 21.5% | .293 | 85 | 118 | -0.3 | Mike Cather |
Esmerling Vasquez | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 12.9% | 19.8% | .306 | 67 | 150 | -0.3 | Bobby Witt |
Joe Barlow | 10.9 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 16.7% | 26.1% | .295 | 84 | 120 | -0.3 | Heathcliff Slocumb |
Austin Bibens-Dirkx | 6.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 7.9% | 15.8% | .302 | 73 | 136 | -0.3 | Dennis Springer |
Brandon Mann | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 12.1% | 17.6% | .297 | 77 | 129 | -0.4 | Fritz Ostermueller |
Wes Benjamin | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 8.7% | 16.3% | .310 | 73 | 136 | -0.4 | Marty Reed |
Reed Garrett | 7.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 12.0% | 17.8% | .306 | 81 | 123 | -0.5 | Jose Segura |
Locke St. John | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 12.1% | 22.5% | .301 | 76 | 131 | -0.6 | Danny Young |
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.
ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Oof, a .206 average for Gallo is the OPTIMISTIC projection?
Interesting that Danny Santana and Dahl both got the Brant Brown comp, since I don’t think they’re too similar to each other… Santana seems especially different as Brown never stole more than 3 bases in a season.
Not in BA, but Gallo’s ZiPS OPS is 20 points higher and itself a down projection from recent years. And there are a bunch of guys for whom this is the case.