2021 ZiPS Projections: New York Yankees by Dan Szymborski November 13, 2020 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the New York Yankees. ZiPS Projections 20212020ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFGALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters The possible loss of DJ LeMahieu is a real hit to the Yankees, but even if they don’t come to an agreement with him, I don’t expect the club to actually be cruising with Tyler Wade and Thairo Estrada come April. But even if they did, as long as the team remains healthy — a big condition given their recent experiences — it’s still an extremely potent lineup even if they tank a position or two. Brett Gardner is a free agent as well after the team declined his option, but I expect him to return anyway. After all, Gardner didn’t attract a ton of interest in last year’s free agent market, and with him being a year older and coming off a worse season, and with baseball’s economics, I doubt he gets more phone calls this time around. Like Mitch Moreland in Boston, Gardner appears to have a de facto arrangement where he can just show up at some point and the team will give him a one-year contract for $X million. Did you really think that ZiPS would fall out of love with Gleyber Torres after his power went missing for six weeks? I do think he’s at the point at which I’d try to get him moved to third base. If the Yankees don’t re-sign LeMahieu and instead go after one of the players in the surprisingly deep shortstop pool, could Gio Urshela theoretically play second base? He’s likely a better third baseman than Torres, who hasn’t been great at second, and the team did work him out some at the position in summer training. How the infield gets shuffled will be one of the more interesting questions for them this offseason. ZiPS isn’t programmed to go nuts about great (or awful) 2020 performances, but given that Luke Voit more than doubled his home run rate, leading the league with 22 homers in 56 games, I’m not surprised that his usual league-average projection got another win tacked onto the bottom line. In addition to their normal pursuit of top free agents, I would expect the Yankees to be aggressive in making non-roster invitations to Triple-A/Quadruple-A minor league free agents this winter. The organization just doesn’t have a ton of bodies under contract in the upper minors right now and this was a shockingly low number of projected hitters as as result (and some of those are free agents themselves). ZiPS is slowly easing itself off the Gary Sánchez bandwagon. He’s not actually a .159 BABIP guy, but the problem is that he might just be a .250 BABIP guy, which limits his offensive upside. It’s not without reason the Yankees are connected with Yadier Molina, while Sánchez, no longer as popular among the fanbase, might just be a better fit in another organization at this point. Do not get excited about the Edgar Martinez comp for Urshela. This is comparing Urshela to the stage of Edgar’s career in which he was a Ken Phelps All-Star hilariously blocked by a steeply declining Jim Presley, before he became Edgar. Though if Urhsela does in fact become Edgar Martinez, I reserve the right to forget I ever wrote this. Pitchers I’ll be extremely worried about the Yankee rotation if this is who they start the 2021 season with. At least, the non-Gerrit Cole part. The projections themselves aren’t actually lousy or anything, but there’s a great deal of risk, for varying reasons, with Deivi García, Jordan Montgomery, and Luis Severino. ZiPS is really down on Masahiro Tanaka going forward, but he ate innings at the very least, and James Paxton is occasionally healthy. J.A. Happ had a real purpose with this team, even if I’m eternally annoyed that he pronounces his name “Jay” as if the initials were a word. If healthy, it’s not a bad group at all. I’m especially bearish on Severino after two lost seasons due to injury, and ZiPS has been consistently positive about García as a prospect. I’d like — at least as an analyst, not as an O’s fan — the Yankees to pursue Trevor Bauer and maybe Charlie Morton. I think the team’s strong enough that they’re still likely a mid-90s win team even without the additions, but I’d be uneasy about the starting pitching depth. ZiPS is less worried about the bullpen, seeing bounceback seasons from some of their 2020 disappointments, most notably Adam Ottavino. The computer has been highly optimistic in the past about bullpen potential of some of the random arms floating around at Triple-A for the Yankees, and without a 2020 minor league season, there’s nothing to really change its mind. Addison Russ might be the sneakiest pick of this group; he throws hard and ZiPS loved him before the Yankees picked him up in return for David Hale. One pedantic note for 2021: For the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Batters – Standard Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Gleyber Torres R 24 SS 594 521 85 148 25 1 33 106 63 123 8 2 Aaron Judge R 29 RF 499 420 82 107 17 1 33 88 72 155 3 3 DJ LeMahieu R 32 2B 598 546 92 167 26 3 18 74 43 81 6 3 Giancarlo Stanton R 31 DH 527 452 79 113 23 1 38 111 64 172 3 2 Luke Voit R 30 1B 509 448 77 121 21 1 31 97 52 128 0 0 Gio Urshela R 29 3B 508 466 68 132 28 0 18 79 32 87 2 0 Aaron Hicks B 31 CF 459 381 67 91 19 3 16 61 72 99 7 3 Mike Tauchman L 30 LF 416 366 58 95 20 4 11 54 43 92 13 4 Brett Gardner L 37 CF 443 383 63 92 17 5 16 52 52 100 9 5 Clint Frazier R 26 LF 474 417 62 101 23 3 21 70 47 142 6 2 Gary Sanchez R 28 C 448 396 59 84 14 0 28 88 42 141 0 0 Matt M. Duffy R 30 3B 432 390 44 106 17 2 7 43 32 67 7 3 Mike Ford L 28 1B 432 380 56 90 20 0 20 68 44 85 0 0 Miguel Andújar R 26 3B 498 469 55 125 29 3 17 66 22 85 2 1 Kyle Higashioka R 31 C 303 284 35 64 12 0 15 49 15 76 0 0 Tyler Wade L 26 SS 411 367 51 81 16 3 7 36 35 105 15 5 Thairo Estrada R 25 SS 361 338 42 79 13 2 8 34 14 84 7 2 Chris Gittens R 27 1B 430 376 51 75 12 0 21 64 48 176 0 1 Kyle Holder L 27 SS 455 416 43 97 16 2 8 38 26 85 4 3 Zack Granite L 28 CF 497 464 50 116 15 4 4 33 27 54 18 8 Jordy Mercer R 34 SS 363 333 33 80 15 1 7 34 25 69 0 1 Rosell Herrera B 28 3B 393 357 39 83 17 3 6 38 30 91 11 5 Wynston Sawyer R 29 C 247 223 25 49 12 0 5 23 17 71 0 1 Ben Ruta L 27 LF 476 438 46 98 17 4 8 39 32 113 20 10 Oswaldo Cabrera B 22 2B 544 511 50 110 24 1 11 51 26 143 8 12 Estevan Florial L 23 CF 410 382 39 75 11 4 10 39 26 161 10 11 Kellin Deglan L 29 C 280 259 24 45 8 1 8 26 14 115 1 1 Josh Thole L 34 C 247 218 20 40 5 0 2 15 23 68 1 0 Donny Sands R 25 C 323 301 26 59 12 1 4 23 18 92 0 4 Angel Aguilar R 26 3B 392 369 32 71 14 3 8 35 14 128 7 5 James Nelson R 23 3B 452 420 37 88 12 2 6 37 23 122 4 3 Batters – Advanced Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Gleyber Torres .284 .364 .526 136 .242 .315 7.3 -7 4.4 Lou Boudreau Aaron Judge .255 .367 .536 139 .281 .319 7.0 9 4.3 Roy Cullenbine DJ LeMahieu .306 .357 .463 119 .158 .333 6.4 7 4.2 Julio Franco Giancarlo Stanton .250 .347 .558 138 .308 .310 6.9 0 3.2 Boog Powell Luke Voit .270 .356 .529 134 .259 .311 7.0 -2 2.9 Jack Clark Gio Urshela .283 .331 .459 110 .176 .316 5.8 2 2.5 Edgar Martinez Aaron Hicks .239 .359 .430 112 .192 .282 5.5 0 2.4 Von Hayes Mike Tauchman .260 .339 .426 105 .167 .319 5.4 10 2.1 Frank Catalanotto Brett Gardner .240 .335 .436 106 .196 .285 5.2 -1 1.8 Larry Walker Clint Frazier .242 .325 .463 109 .221 .315 5.4 -3 1.2 Johnny Briggs Gary Sanchez .212 .299 .460 100 .247 .247 4.7 -9 1.1 Charles Johnson Matt M. Duffy .272 .334 .379 93 .108 .313 4.7 -1 1.1 Paul Schaal Mike Ford .237 .322 .447 105 .211 .255 5.1 0 1.0 Mark Johnson Miguel Andújar .267 .301 .450 99 .183 .294 5.0 -9 0.7 Chris Snopek Kyle Higashioka .225 .267 .426 83 .201 .254 4.0 -1 0.5 Kelly Stinnett Tyler Wade .221 .294 .338 70 .117 .290 3.6 0 0.3 Ed Giovanola Thairo Estrada .234 .277 .355 69 .121 .289 3.6 1 0.2 Ramon Castro Chris Gittens .199 .295 .399 85 .199 .302 3.9 0 0.0 Jeremy Brown Kyle Holder .233 .283 .339 67 .106 .276 3.3 0 0.0 Ed Giovanola Zack Granite .250 .293 .325 67 .075 .276 3.5 2 -0.1 Ken Ramos Jordy Mercer .240 .298 .354 76 .114 .284 3.7 -4 -0.2 Eddie Kasko Rosell Herrera .232 .297 .347 73 .115 .296 3.7 -3 -0.2 Kevin Stocker Wynston Sawyer .220 .291 .341 70 .121 .299 3.3 -5 -0.3 Steve Holm Ben Ruta .224 .276 .336 64 .112 .284 3.2 5 -0.7 Brady Anderson Oswaldo Cabrera .215 .253 .331 56 .115 .277 2.6 3 -1.2 Jeff Patzke Estevan Florial .196 .247 .325 53 .128 .308 2.4 1 -1.3 Mark Budzinski Kellin Deglan .174 .229 .305 43 .131 .272 2.2 -6 -1.4 Dwight Lowry Josh Thole .183 .264 .234 37 .050 .257 2.1 -7 -1.5 Duke Sims Donny Sands .196 .245 .282 42 .086 .268 2.1 -4 -1.5 Pete Gonzalez Angel Aguilar .192 .226 .312 43 .119 .270 2.3 -2 -1.8 Abel Nieves James Nelson .210 .253 .290 46 .081 .281 2.5 -6 -2.2 Timothy Hulett Pitchers – Standard Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP Gerrit Cole R 30 16 8 3.21 32 32 193.3 155 69 27 49 260 3.14 Luis Severino R 27 9 5 3.64 19 19 113.7 103 46 16 30 124 3.70 James Paxton L 32 9 6 3.92 23 23 119.3 107 52 18 38 143 3.75 Chad Green R 30 6 3 3.04 56 8 71.0 55 24 10 20 99 3.19 Domingo Germán R 28 10 8 4.38 26 22 127.3 118 62 22 41 140 4.31 Deivi García R 22 9 7 4.31 26 22 112.7 101 54 17 51 134 4.28 Masahiro Tanaka R 32 9 7 4.58 25 25 137.7 141 70 25 31 127 4.46 Jordan Montgomery L 28 5 4 4.15 20 19 93.3 90 43 13 31 90 4.12 J.A. Happ L 38 9 7 4.57 23 23 124.0 120 63 21 41 114 4.63 Aroldis Chapman L 33 3 1 2.62 48 0 44.7 28 13 4 22 75 2.60 Michael King R 26 7 6 4.64 23 18 108.7 113 56 18 27 92 4.55 Jonathan Loaisiga R 26 4 3 4.06 25 12 62.0 59 28 9 21 68 4.08 Tommy Kahnle R 31 3 2 3.22 51 0 44.7 34 16 6 18 66 3.25 Brian Keller R 27 6 6 4.86 19 18 100.0 107 54 17 32 82 4.86 Luis Cessa R 29 3 2 4.20 35 6 79.3 76 37 10 31 73 4.26 Garrett Whitlock R 25 4 3 4.85 18 18 85.3 90 46 12 36 66 4.90 Adam Ottavino R 35 6 3 3.48 62 0 54.3 40 21 5 32 76 3.51 Shawn Semple R 25 5 5 5.07 24 19 110.0 120 62 17 48 85 5.14 Nick Nelson R 25 5 4 4.81 25 16 88.0 81 47 11 59 95 4.79 Miguel Yajure R 23 6 6 4.92 22 16 104.3 109 57 19 34 90 5.00 Clarke Schmidt R 25 4 4 4.88 17 14 66.3 67 36 10 30 61 4.88 Addison Russ R 26 6 4 3.79 54 0 57.0 48 24 7 23 70 3.74 Zack Britton L 33 3 2 3.72 52 0 46.0 39 19 3 24 43 3.79 Domingo Acevedo R 27 5 4 4.70 26 5 76.7 77 40 12 28 70 4.64 Ben Heller R 29 3 2 3.98 29 2 31.7 27 14 4 15 38 4.03 Luis Avilan L 31 2 2 4.21 49 0 36.3 34 17 4 16 37 4.06 Trevor Stephan R 25 6 7 5.48 22 21 92.0 98 56 19 41 86 5.50 Jonathan Holder R 28 4 3 4.43 51 0 61.0 59 30 9 23 60 4.36 Fernando Abad L 35 3 2 4.34 49 0 45.7 46 22 8 10 41 4.38 Dan Otero R 36 0 0 4.32 39 0 41.7 47 20 7 5 27 4.50 Brooks Kriske R 27 3 2 4.57 34 0 41.3 35 21 5 31 50 4.73 Tyler Lyons L 33 2 2 4.55 24 0 27.7 27 14 5 11 32 4.63 Trevor Lane L 27 4 3 4.68 43 0 67.3 67 35 10 30 62 4.78 Kaleb Ort R 29 3 3 4.70 34 0 46.0 37 24 5 38 60 4.66 Ryan Buchter L 34 3 2 4.78 52 0 37.7 35 20 7 19 41 5.01 Tony Zych R 30 2 2 4.82 21 0 18.7 19 10 2 10 16 4.79 Tommy Milone L 34 6 7 5.64 23 15 107.0 124 67 26 24 92 5.40 Nick Green R 26 6 7 5.71 21 20 99.3 111 63 14 60 65 5.70 Braden Bristo R 26 3 3 4.81 38 0 58.0 55 31 9 32 61 4.96 Daniel Alvarez R 25 4 4 4.85 47 0 55.7 52 30 11 28 65 5.08 Matt Wivinis R 27 4 4 4.87 38 0 48.0 47 26 7 27 46 5.03 Alexander Vizcaino R 24 3 5 6.14 14 14 70.3 78 48 15 35 57 6.04 Greg Weissert R 26 3 4 5.59 39 0 58.0 56 36 10 45 62 5.82 Luis Medina R 22 3 4 6.58 16 16 64.3 64 47 9 71 61 6.65 Albert Abreu R 25 4 6 6.52 19 16 69.0 77 50 15 50 58 6.67 Janson Junk R 25 4 7 6.97 21 14 80.0 95 62 19 52 59 6.93 Pitchers – Advanced Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp Gerrit Cole 12.1 2.3 1.3 6.3% 33.4% .293 139 72 5.1 Greg Maddux Luis Severino 9.8 2.4 1.3 6.4% 26.4% .293 122 82 2.4 John Montefusco James Paxton 10.8 2.9 1.4 7.6% 28.7% .300 114 88 2.2 Andy Pettitte Chad Green 12.5 2.5 1.3 7.0% 34.5% .290 147 68 1.8 Jason Isringhausen Domingo Germán 9.9 2.9 1.6 7.6% 26.0% .291 102 98 1.8 Ed Wojna Deivi García 10.7 4.1 1.4 10.4% 27.4% .299 103 97 1.6 Roger McDowell Masahiro Tanaka 8.3 2.0 1.6 5.4% 21.9% .296 97 103 1.6 Jim Barr Jordan Montgomery 8.7 3.0 1.3 7.8% 22.7% .295 108 93 1.5 Steve Trout J.A. Happ 8.3 3.0 1.5 7.8% 21.6% .284 98 103 1.4 George Mogridge Aroldis Chapman 15.1 4.4 0.8 12.0% 40.8% .296 170 59 1.3 Billy Wagner Michael King 7.6 2.2 1.5 5.8% 19.8% .296 96 104 1.1 Jack Russell Jonathan Loaisiga 9.9 3.0 1.3 7.9% 25.6% .305 110 91 1.0 Don Ruzek Tommy Kahnle 13.3 3.6 1.2 9.7% 35.7% .298 138 72 0.9 Paul Shuey Brian Keller 7.4 2.9 1.5 7.3% 18.8% .299 92 109 0.9 Ron Reed Luis Cessa 8.3 3.5 1.1 9.1% 21.3% .293 106 94 0.8 Dick Hyde Garrett Whitlock 7.0 3.8 1.3 9.4% 17.3% .298 92 109 0.8 Steve Arlin Adam Ottavino 12.6 5.3 0.8 13.6% 32.3% .294 128 78 0.8 Jeff Nelson Shawn Semple 7.0 3.9 1.4 9.7% 17.1% .303 88 114 0.7 Mark Cahill Nick Nelson 9.7 6.0 1.1 14.7% 23.6% .300 93 108 0.7 Bob Brown Miguel Yajure 7.8 2.9 1.6 7.5% 19.8% .295 91 110 0.6 Early Wynn Clarke Schmidt 8.3 4.1 1.4 10.1% 20.6% .300 91 110 0.6 Ronnie Ray Addison Russ 11.1 3.6 1.1 9.5% 28.8% .295 118 85 0.6 Blaine Neal Zack Britton 8.4 4.7 0.6 12.1% 21.6% .281 120 83 0.6 Hal Woodeshick Domingo Acevedo 8.2 3.3 1.4 8.4% 21.0% .295 95 105 0.5 Adrian Devine Ben Heller 10.8 4.3 1.1 10.9% 27.7% .295 112 89 0.3 Ken Ryan Luis Avilan 9.2 4.0 1.0 10.1% 23.3% .300 106 94 0.2 Tom Burgmeier Trevor Stephan 8.4 4.0 1.9 9.9% 20.8% .300 81 123 0.2 Matt Achilles Jonathan Holder 8.9 3.4 1.3 8.7% 22.8% .296 101 99 0.2 Mark Ross Fernando Abad 8.1 2.0 1.6 5.2% 21.5% .290 103 97 0.2 Steve Mingori Dan Otero 5.8 1.1 1.5 2.9% 15.4% .296 103 97 0.2 Dick Hall Brooks Kriske 10.9 6.8 1.1 16.4% 26.5% .297 98 103 0.1 Clay Bryant Tyler Lyons 10.4 3.6 1.6 9.1% 26.4% .310 98 102 0.0 Mike Mohler Trevor Lane 8.3 4.0 1.3 10.1% 20.8% .297 95 105 0.0 Anthony Ferrari Kaleb Ort 11.7 7.4 1.0 17.8% 28.2% .299 95 105 0.0 George Smith Ryan Buchter 9.8 4.5 1.7 11.4% 24.7% .286 93 107 0.0 Luis Arroyo Tony Zych 7.7 4.8 1.0 11.6% 18.6% .304 92 108 0.0 Charlie Williams Tommy Milone 7.7 2.0 2.2 5.2% 19.8% .307 79 126 0.0 Terry Mulholland Nick Green 5.9 5.4 1.3 12.8% 13.9% .301 78 128 0.0 Edwin Morel Braden Bristo 9.5 5.0 1.4 12.3% 23.4% .297 93 108 0.0 Joe Hudson Daniel Alvarez 10.5 4.5 1.8 11.3% 26.3% .293 92 109 -0.1 Joel Moore Matt Wivinis 8.6 5.1 1.3 12.4% 21.1% .296 91 109 -0.1 Casey Daigle Alexander Vizcaino 7.3 4.5 1.9 10.8% 17.6% .297 73 138 -0.3 Jake Joseph Greg Weissert 9.6 7.0 1.6 16.4% 22.5% .299 80 125 -0.5 Heathcliff Slocumb Luis Medina 8.5 9.9 1.3 21.6% 18.5% .301 68 147 -0.6 Randy Nosek Albert Abreu 7.6 6.5 2.0 15.0% 17.4% .301 68 146 -0.7 Rich Dorman Janson Junk 6.6 5.9 2.1 13.5% 15.3% .303 64 156 -1.2 Mark Woodyard Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April. ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. 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