2021 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

Let’s get the bad news out of the way first: the Tigers are quite clearly the worst team in the AL Central. They may not be the worst team in baseball — the Orioles, Rangers, and Pirates will likely have something to say about that — but the Royals have made enough short-term improvements and Cleveland isn’t selling off fast enough to drop down into Tigers-territory.

But rather than belabor the point (none of this is remotely controversial), we can focus on some of the green shoots that sprouted during the bizarre 2020 season. These developments are extremely important because while Detroit has an array of quality pitching prospects, their lumber doesn’t match up. Where spot-fillers such as Jonathan Schoop, Austin Romine, Jordy Mercer, and C.J. Cron have been useful in recent years when the cupboard was empty, those types aren’t as necessary this time around. There are few possible stars among this group, but there are several guys who are at least interesting, kind of like the O’s and their supply of Quad-A 1B/DH types.

Of all the players who needed 2020 to work out, Jeimer Candelario was near the top of the list. After a promising 2018 season, he struggled in 2019, even suffering a well-deserved demotion to Triple-A Toledo for a spell. In 2020, he didn’t look like the batter who failed to slug even .350 the year before, instead hitting .297/.369/.503 in 52 games. The batting average near .300 is unlikely to persist thanks to a .372 BABIP, but he improved on a broad enough basis that he’s an actual option to move over to first, which would have seemed ludicrous a year ago. Candelario’s not particularly young, and he’s unlikely to bust out a 40-homer season or anything like that, but you can at least write him into the lineup using pen now.

You should be skeptical of Willi Castro’s .349 2020 batting average for the same reason as Candelario’s: he’s simply not going to maintain a .448 BABIP. But he was a high-BABIP player in the minors and when you combine that with his major league performance, ZiPS thinks he’s likely a .340-.350 BABIP guy. That’s enough where he doesn’t need to have a ton of power or walks or defense to be a plus.

Don’t be scared by the Jeff Mathis offensive comp for Jake Rogers; there was a time when Mathis was considered an offensive prospect, as odd as that seems now. Mickey Tettleton was actually known as a glove guy in the minors! I’d like to see the Tigers prioritize playing time for him over Grayson Greiner or Eric Haase as he’s the only one with a good shot to be a legitimate starter for a few seasons. Rogers is no slouch defensively, and I’d be very comfortable letting him catch the team’s young pitching. Similarly, I’d like to see Zack Short get a chance to stick in a utility role rather than signing a veteran.

Pitchers

From a player development standpoint, 2020 was a real drag on Detroit’s game plan. With a stable of high-minors pitching prospects who needed innings more than anything, there was a lot of playing time lost that can never be recovered. Between playing their veterans (Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull) and seeing if Michael Fulmer could still pitch, the Tigers didn’t have enough starts for everyone who would have benefited. And when Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal struggled, there was nowhere to demote them to where they could still actually pitch in games.

I was actually sort of surprised the Tigers tendered Fulmer a contract for 2021. It’s tricky to see how he fits on the roster if neither Boyd nor Turnbull is traded this winter. There are a lot of players the Tigers need to look at, and Fulmer was awful in 2020 even if you give him the benefit of every statistical doubt. He was missing velocity in his return, and it’s hard to envision him being a high-leverage reliever. Nor would exiling him to a mop-up role recommend him to possible suitors.

Even with Skubal and Mize taking hits to their projections because of 2020, the rotation projects as broadly middling enough that the Tigers could be a Wild Card contender if the lineup and bullpen were up to snuff. The lineup’s not there yet, and the bullpen really isn’t either, with our Depth Charts currently ranking the group as the worst in baseball. If you were hoping for ZiPS to give a sunnier estimate than Steamer, you’re going to mostly be disappointed. ZiPS sees Joe Jiménez are a middle-tier reliever and thinks Daniel Norris will also be fine in a late-inning role, but after those two, well, at least the Tigers won’t have a lot of leads to protect in 2021.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.