2021 ZiPS Projections: Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Batters

Intending to compete in 2020, the Diamondbacks spent the first half of the abbreviated season in the hunt for one of the Wild Card spots. Arizona hit their high-water mark the morning of August 19, standing in the thick of the race with a 13-11 record. That’s not to say everything went as planned; the team’s pitching staff had an ERA of 5.17, and the offense ranked in the middle of the pack. But contending is contending, and the projections still looked relatively bullish, with Steamer giving Arizona a 62% chance of making the playoffs and ZiPS a 60% shot. Those prognostications turned out to be very overly-optimistic; the D-backs dropped 11 of their next 12 games, a mortal blow in a season of only 60 games. The result was a club that became an aggressive seller at the deadline. Gone were Archie Bradley, Starling Marte, Robbie Ray, and Andrew Chafin as Arizona signaled a significant rebuild.

The D-backs enters the offseason in a much less commanding position than they did last year. Yes, they have a great deal of payroll flexibility, with an estimated luxury tax number more than $100 million below the penalty threshold. The giant “but” here, however, is that they’re also a team that’s very hard to significantly upgrade, full of middling players but with few stars and few obvious gaping holes. Taking a quick peek at the handy-dandy depth chart graphic, Arizona’s lowest-ranked position is the Carson Kelly/Stephen Vogt combination, projected at 1.2 WAR, mostly due to ZiPS being bearish on the latter player. The Colorado Rockies aren’t likely to actually do much in free agency, but if they did, any free agent they’d sign would likely add more wins to their team than to Arizona’s.

That gives the D-backs two paths to avoiding .500-team purgatory. First, they could spend aggressively and add players who would be real upgrades, like George Springer or Trevor Bauer. In an offseason when the league is likely to be more conservative than usual, this route would be my personal preference, but if they had the willingness to do that, it makes a lot less sense to have traded Marte or Bradley. Lesser signings are unlikely to make a giant dent, with only five position players and five starting pitchers currently projected to upgrade the team’s projection by at least a win over what they already have.

The second option — attempting to assemble an 85-win team and catch lightning in a bottle — is arguably a worse strategy in the West than in any other division in baseball. The Dodgers and Padres will likely enter the season projected as the best and second-best teams in the National League respectively, limiting Arizona’s upside by removing a whole boatload of division-winning scenarios.

For the lineup as a whole, only one player who has a good shot at being a star in 2021, namely Ketel Marte, who was still a key contributor despite the evaporation of his 2020 power. Outside of the remaining Marte, not only is there no one in the lineup who is currently a star, there’s who has a puncher’s chance of at least playing like a star for a year. Looking at the ZiPS percentile projections, Nick Ahmed has a 14% chance at a four-win season, Eduardo Escobar is at 8%, and everyone else is below Escobar’s number. Now, there are players in the lower minors with more upside, but it’s unlikely that 2021 will be their time to shine.

Pitchers

The pitching staff is in a place similar to the lineup. The team’s bright spot is Zac Gallen, who is now nearly undoubtedly the most valuable part of the organization. ZiPS was a giant fan of Gallen coming into 2020, projecting him at 12-7 with a 3.62 ERA, 121 ERA+, and 3.2 WAR in 29 starts. He even got a Greg Maddux top comp, albeit Greg Maddux before he became Greg Maddux. Gallen continued to pitch at that level, finishing just out of the top 10 in the NL in WAR. From a projection standpoint, he is likely to poke in at the back of the top 10 in rest-of-career WAR among pitchers when all the numbers are in. It’s time for the baseball world to stop underrating him.

The rest of the rotation is much less exciting. Luke Weaver is easily the most interesting returning starter. His 2020 was a disaster, but a good chunk of that was due to a .349 BABIP that is unlikely to persist next season, and the rest of his performance record is more encouraging. There were already reasons to be worried about Madison Bumgarner before 2020, making his drop in velocity (a full 3 mph) doubly concerning. Clayton Kershaw has had a similar decline in velocity, but unlike Bumgarner, it hasn’t resulted in a nearly 15% barrel rate from opposing batters. Bumgarner will claw back some value by getting to bat in 2021, which now appears likely, but that’s not going to push Arizona over the top.

Closing out games for Arizona is a relief corps that’s neither impressive at the front nor deep at the back. ZiPS thinks Stefan Crichton and Kevin Ginkel will be above-average but won’t match up against the high-leverage relievers on other contenders. The back of the bullpen looks like it will mainly be made up of whatever remaining rotation castoffs start the season on the roster, mostly with projections right around replacement level. Unlike the lineup and the starting rotation, the team could make significant improvements here in free agency without spending absurd amounts of cash. The problem is that Arizona has a tough playoff road if their only big improvements are bullpen-related.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Ketel Marte B 27 CF 635 580 79 167 35 9 19 69 45 86 7 2
Nick Ahmed R 31 SS 554 505 68 129 29 4 15 72 42 112 7 2
Eduardo Escobar B 32 3B 600 548 71 139 29 7 22 82 41 117 3 2
Tim Locastro R 28 CF 407 357 57 94 22 4 7 34 24 75 20 2
Kole Calhoun L 33 RF 541 472 74 112 23 2 25 75 57 130 4 2
Christian Walker R 30 1B 567 508 78 131 31 3 23 79 48 138 4 1
Carson Kelly R 26 C 389 348 43 84 17 0 14 50 37 81 0 0
David Peralta L 33 LF 517 476 56 131 25 3 15 66 35 105 2 1
Wyatt Mathisen R 27 3B 372 320 48 74 15 1 14 47 36 105 2 1
Daulton Varsho L 24 C 428 385 54 93 17 4 13 42 34 101 14 4
Kevin Cron R 28 1B 433 385 56 91 19 1 24 71 37 129 1 1
Andy Young R 27 2B 477 419 55 93 17 4 18 55 33 134 3 2
Domingo Leyba B 25 SS 506 467 61 118 27 4 12 52 32 92 1 2
Christian Lopes R 28 2B 507 447 56 107 25 2 11 46 48 107 12 5
Juniel Querecuto B 28 SS 452 423 44 108 19 4 5 37 21 84 8 4
Seth Beer L 24 1B 584 523 70 135 24 0 23 69 37 137 1 4
Josh Rojas L 27 LF 542 485 65 119 25 4 13 50 49 116 18 8
Pavin Smith L 25 1B 480 430 54 112 20 4 11 44 44 80 3 1
Geraldo Perdomo B 21 SS 455 397 47 88 16 3 5 32 44 93 19 12
Jose Herrera B 24 C 292 259 26 51 13 1 3 19 29 69 1 1
Renae Martinez R 27 C 401 367 39 76 17 0 9 35 27 108 0 2
Josh VanMeter L 26 LF 450 398 53 90 24 3 13 52 45 110 10 4
Dominic Miroglio R 26 C 337 311 31 72 16 1 4 26 19 58 1 1
Drew Ellis R 25 3B 482 431 48 90 20 0 14 48 45 145 1 4
Ben DeLuzio R 26 CF 425 386 41 86 16 5 4 27 28 116 20 10
Jake McCarthy L 23 CF 275 254 26 58 14 3 2 20 18 69 16 5
John Hicks R 31 C 361 340 35 77 17 0 12 43 17 109 2 2
Gavin Cecchini R 27 2B 406 373 41 90 17 1 7 33 28 78 4 3
Alek Thomas L 21 CF 474 436 52 104 20 5 9 42 33 121 10 10
Ryan Grotjohn L 26 LF 391 351 36 75 16 3 6 28 29 116 3 6
Stephen Vogt L 36 C 307 279 28 62 20 1 9 39 25 68 1 0
Jancarlos Cintron R 26 SS 421 395 41 92 17 2 6 33 19 65 4 5
Dalton Pompey B 28 LF 246 218 25 45 9 0 4 17 23 73 8 3
Jon Jay L 36 RF 376 341 41 86 12 2 2 23 19 71 3 1
Stuart Fairchild R 25 CF 490 441 49 94 19 4 8 43 37 133 8 7
L.T. Tolbert L 25 2B 439 409 41 99 20 1 4 32 23 75 3 4
Alberto Rosario R 34 C 205 192 17 42 4 0 1 11 10 43 0 1
Camden Duzenack R 26 2B 453 413 46 79 15 3 13 43 27 128 8 5
Eduardo Diaz R 23 LF 426 399 42 88 17 4 8 35 18 108 9 4
Trayce Thompson R 30 CF 369 343 39 64 13 2 13 41 24 135 5 3
Yoel Yanqui L 25 1B 469 429 45 91 19 3 5 34 36 128 11 7

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Ketel Marte .288 .343 .478 111 .190 .312 6.3 3 3.6 Mark Kotsay
Nick Ahmed .255 .312 .418 88 .162 .302 4.8 8 2.4 Jay Bell
Eduardo Escobar .254 .307 .453 95 .199 .286 5.0 2 1.8 Scott Spiezio
Tim Locastro .263 .348 .406 97 .143 .316 5.7 -2 1.6 Rajai Davis
Kole Calhoun .237 .325 .453 100 .216 .274 5.2 3 1.6 Jeromy Burnitz
Christian Walker .258 .326 .467 104 .209 .311 5.6 1 1.6 Marty Cordova
Carson Kelly .241 .319 .411 89 .170 .277 4.7 2 1.5 Tim DeCinces
David Peralta .275 .329 .435 97 .160 .326 5.3 3 1.5 Dick Sisler
Wyatt Mathisen .231 .329 .416 93 .184 .299 4.8 3 1.4 Fran Mullins
Daulton Varsho .242 .313 .408 86 .166 .295 4.7 -2 1.2 Phil Lombardi
Kevin Cron .236 .312 .478 102 .242 .289 5.2 2 1.2 Nate Gold
Andy Young .222 .309 .411 86 .189 .281 4.4 0 1.1 Shaun Larkin
Domingo Leyba .253 .304 .405 83 .152 .292 4.4 -2 0.9 Matt Franco
Christian Lopes .239 .319 .378 81 .139 .292 4.3 -2 0.8 Jason Maxwell
Juniel Querecuto .255 .293 .355 68 .099 .308 3.8 5 0.6 Garry Templeton
Seth Beer .258 .330 .436 98 .178 .309 5.1 -4 0.6 Daryle Ward
Josh Rojas .245 .315 .394 84 .148 .298 4.5 3 0.6 Terry Bradshaw
Pavin Smith .260 .327 .402 89 .142 .298 4.8 1 0.5 Tommy Gregg
Geraldo Perdomo .222 .313 .315 65 .093 .278 3.3 4 0.5 Nick Punto
Jose Herrera .197 .277 .290 49 .093 .257 2.7 7 0.2 Matt Morgan
Renae Martinez .207 .269 .327 55 .120 .268 2.9 5 0.0 Brandon Marsters
Josh VanMeter .226 .310 .399 83 .173 .280 4.4 -3 0.0 Scott Khoury
Dominic Miroglio .232 .288 .328 61 .096 .273 3.3 0 -0.1 Angelo Encarnacion
Drew Ellis .209 .287 .353 66 .144 .279 3.3 2 -0.1 Brad Seitzer
Ben DeLuzio .223 .285 .321 58 .098 .308 3.2 6 -0.1 Herm Winningham
Jake McCarthy .228 .287 .331 61 .102 .306 3.6 0 -0.1 Jon Jay
John Hicks .226 .264 .382 66 .156 .297 3.5 -2 -0.2 Bob Melvin
Gavin Cecchini .241 .295 .349 67 .107 .288 3.6 -1 -0.2 Eric Rodland
Alek Thomas .239 .297 .369 73 .131 .310 3.7 -2 -0.2 Tom Dunbar
Ryan Grotjohn .214 .282 .328 59 .114 .301 2.9 10 -0.2 Johan Limonta
Stephen Vogt .222 .283 .398 75 .176 .262 4.0 -9 -0.3 Mike Macfarlane
Jancarlos Cintron .233 .276 .332 58 .099 .265 3.1 1 -0.4 Joey Aragon
Dalton Pompey .206 .282 .303 53 .096 .291 3.0 1 -0.7 Jason Jackson
Jon Jay .252 .306 .317 63 .065 .313 3.5 -1 -0.7 Rick Miller
Stuart Fairchild .213 .288 .329 61 .116 .287 3.1 -2 -0.8 Rashad Eldridge
L.T. Tolbert .242 .287 .325 60 .083 .288 3.2 -2 -0.8 Marty Wilkerson
Alberto Rosario .219 .260 .255 36 .036 .277 2.2 -1 -0.9 Ken Huckaby
Camden Duzenack .191 .254 .337 52 .145 .243 2.8 1 -0.9 Brandon Warriax
Eduardo Diaz .221 .263 .343 57 .123 .283 3.2 -1 -1.4 Dan Odgers
Trayce Thompson .187 .241 .350 52 .163 .262 2.8 -6 -1.5 Jeff Barry
Yoel Yanqui .212 .275 .305 52 .093 .291 2.8 -3 -2.2 Stephen Larkin

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Zac Gallen R 25 12 8 3.74 29 29 163.7 144 68 24 54 193 3.86
Josh Green R 25 9 8 4.44 23 23 123.7 136 61 14 37 82 4.39
Luke Weaver R 27 9 8 4.58 25 24 118.0 119 60 20 35 121 4.32
Jon Duplantier R 26 4 3 4.39 33 22 104.7 97 51 13 55 112 4.43
Merrill Kelly 켈리 R 32 9 9 4.74 22 22 131.0 136 69 22 41 118 4.62
Madison Bumgarner L 31 7 7 4.87 26 26 146.0 149 79 31 37 137 4.97
Jeremy Beasley R 25 7 6 4.61 26 21 109.3 111 56 14 45 91 4.58
Mike Leake R 33 8 9 4.92 24 24 142.7 168 78 25 22 90 4.79
Cole Stapler R 26 6 6 4.72 24 21 110.7 117 58 19 25 91 4.61
Jeff Bain R 25 8 8 4.95 25 25 127.3 133 70 19 54 107 4.90
Riley Smith R 26 5 5 4.86 24 19 113.0 122 61 18 37 93 4.75
Caleb Smith L 29 6 6 4.87 23 21 105.3 96 57 19 49 115 4.85
Alex Young L 27 8 8 5.05 33 21 123.0 127 69 21 48 111 4.91
Kevin McCanna R 27 6 5 4.63 29 10 81.7 80 42 12 37 81 4.65
Taylor Clarke R 28 7 7 5.06 28 21 117.3 121 66 20 46 103 4.97
Artie Lewicki R 29 5 4 4.68 17 12 73.0 80 38 9 24 54 4.41
Bo Takahashi R 24 8 9 5.22 24 24 112.0 119 65 22 41 97 5.26
Corbin Martin R 25 4 5 5.03 20 17 82.3 85 46 15 34 77 5.06
Shumpei Yoshikawa R 26 4 4 4.92 16 15 71.3 75 39 12 27 62 4.93
Taylor Widener R 26 6 6 5.13 28 21 98.3 94 56 16 51 102 4.96
Junior Guerra R 36 5 5 4.66 48 7 75.3 70 39 12 37 75 4.85
Stefan Crichton R 29 4 3 4.16 58 0 71.3 69 33 9 26 68 4.22
David Huff 허프 L 36 2 2 4.50 8 6 42.0 48 21 6 8 24 4.61
Matt Peacock R 27 5 5 5.23 23 18 93.0 102 54 13 43 66 5.16
Rogelio Armenteros R 27 6 7 5.38 23 20 100.3 107 60 21 43 95 5.44
Hector Rondón R 33 3 2 4.13 56 1 52.3 50 24 7 18 53 4.04
Kevin Ginkel R 27 3 3 4.12 52 0 54.7 45 25 8 28 75 4.04
Keury Mella R 27 7 8 5.35 27 19 106.0 117 63 18 44 80 5.26
J.B. Bukauskas R 24 3 4 5.36 23 18 94.0 92 56 13 66 87 5.36
Travis Radke L 28 3 3 4.33 47 0 68.7 70 33 8 24 59 4.20
Humberto Mejia R 24 3 3 5.26 15 12 65.0 67 38 12 27 55 5.32
James Sherfy R 29 3 3 4.31 54 0 56.3 50 27 8 26 64 4.30
Aaron Blair R 29 4 4 5.34 12 12 59.0 63 35 8 35 44 5.38
Taylor Guilbeau L 28 2 2 4.70 41 3 53.7 55 28 6 24 46 4.43
Miguel Aguilar L 29 0 0 4.21 35 0 36.3 34 17 5 16 38 4.36
Matt Grace L 32 2 1 4.56 51 1 53.3 58 27 8 14 40 4.53
Yoan López R 28 3 3 4.50 57 0 54.0 52 27 8 22 51 4.49
Joe Mantiply L 30 2 2 4.69 26 2 40.3 41 21 6 14 33 4.59
Michael Tonkin R 31 3 3 4.42 32 0 38.7 36 19 6 18 43 4.52
Mack Lemieux L 24 4 5 5.45 30 11 79.3 80 48 13 46 75 5.35
Kyle Crockett L 29 2 2 4.34 32 0 29.0 31 14 4 9 23 4.42
Sam Moll L 29 3 3 4.66 43 0 48.3 47 25 6 23 46 4.44
Silvino Bracho R 28 2 2 4.72 38 0 40.0 37 21 7 15 43 4.66
Junior Garcia L 25 3 2 4.73 24 0 32.3 29 17 4 19 36 4.51
Justin Vernia R 25 6 7 5.79 25 20 112.0 130 72 22 46 74 5.83
Eduardo Jimenez R 26 3 3 4.91 50 0 62.3 66 34 9 26 48 4.91
West Tunnell R 27 0 0 4.97 41 0 38.0 34 21 5 27 42 5.05
Dillon Overton L 29 5 7 5.86 24 19 101.3 121 66 22 31 71 5.67
Edwin Jackson R 37 5 7 5.94 22 17 89.3 101 59 18 40 69 5.70
Mark Leiter Jr. R 30 3 3 5.13 39 0 47.3 48 27 9 22 47 5.25
Damien Magnifico R 30 3 3 5.27 47 1 54.7 51 32 7 42 58 5.19
Bradley Roney R 28 0 0 5.26 30 0 39.3 33 23 6 30 49 5.11
Travis Bergen L 27 2 2 5.40 36 0 33.3 32 20 5 21 35 5.10
Kyler Stout R 26 2 2 5.86 23 0 27.7 25 18 4 25 28 5.96
Mauricio Cabrera R 27 3 4 5.68 45 0 50.7 46 32 7 46 58 5.59

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Zac Gallen 10.6 3.0 1.3 7.9% 28.1% .294 123 81 3.6 Danny Cox
Josh Green 6.0 2.7 1.0 6.8% 15.2% .304 103 97 1.7 Reggie Cleveland
Luke Weaver 9.2 2.7 1.5 6.9% 24.0% .306 100 100 1.5 Mike Harkey
Jon Duplantier 9.6 4.7 1.1 11.8% 24.0% .301 105 96 1.5 Joe Decker
Merrill Kelly 8.1 2.8 1.5 7.2% 20.8% .300 97 103 1.5 Ray Scarborough
Madison Bumgarner 8.4 2.3 1.9 6.0% 22.1% .289 94 106 1.4 Brian Anderson
Jeremy Beasley 7.5 3.7 1.2 9.3% 18.9% .298 100 100 1.4 Lew Krausse
Mike Leake 5.7 1.4 1.6 3.6% 14.7% .304 93 107 1.4 Bob Bruce
Cole Stapler 7.4 2.0 1.5 5.3% 19.3% .296 97 103 1.3 Dave Eiland
Jeff Bain 7.6 3.8 1.3 9.5% 18.8% .300 93 108 1.2 Michael LaCoss
Riley Smith 7.4 2.9 1.4 7.5% 18.8% .304 94 106 1.0 Cha Seung Baek
Caleb Smith 9.8 4.2 1.6 10.7% 25.1% .284 94 106 1.0 Kent Mercker
Alex Young 8.1 3.5 1.5 8.9% 20.5% .299 91 110 0.9 Scott Schoeneweis
Kevin McCanna 8.9 4.1 1.3 10.2% 22.4% .301 99 101 0.8 Earl Harrist
Taylor Clarke 7.9 3.5 1.5 8.9% 19.9% .295 91 110 0.8 Tommie Sisk
Artie Lewicki 6.7 3.0 1.1 7.5% 16.9% .309 98 102 0.8 Bob Moose
Bo Takahashi 7.8 3.3 1.8 8.3% 19.6% .296 88 114 0.7 Shawn Hill
Corbin Martin 8.4 3.7 1.6 9.3% 21.2% .299 91 110 0.7 Roger McDowell
Shumpei Yoshikawa 7.8 3.4 1.5 8.6% 19.7% .300 93 107 0.7 Shawn Hill
Taylor Widener 9.3 4.7 1.5 11.6% 23.2% .295 90 112 0.6 Dick Ruthven
Junior Guerra 9.0 4.4 1.4 11.2% 22.7% .284 99 101 0.6 Greg Minton
Stefan Crichton 8.6 3.3 1.1 8.4% 22.0% .299 110 91 0.6 Ernie Johnson
David Huff 5.1 1.7 1.3 4.4% 13.3% .298 102 98 0.6 Eppa Rixey
Matt Peacock 6.4 4.2 1.3 10.2% 15.6% .302 88 114 0.6 Steve Arlin
Rogelio Armenteros 8.5 3.9 1.9 9.6% 21.2% .302 85 117 0.5 Steve Cummings
Hector Rondon 9.1 3.1 1.2 8.1% 23.8% .301 111 90 0.5 Doug Sisk
Kevin Ginkel 12.3 4.6 1.3 11.8% 31.6% .301 112 90 0.5 Scott Fredrickson
Keury Mella 6.8 3.7 1.5 9.2% 16.8% .301 86 117 0.5 Howie Fox
J.B. Bukauskas 8.3 6.3 1.2 15.1% 19.9% .296 86 117 0.4 Preston Hanna
Travis Radke 7.7 3.1 1.0 8.0% 19.7% .304 106 94 0.4 Jim Crawford
Humberto Mejia 7.6 3.7 1.7 9.4% 19.1% .289 87 115 0.4 Aaron Thompson
James Sherfy 10.2 4.2 1.3 10.7% 26.2% .294 106 94 0.3 Ed Farmer
Aaron Blair 6.7 5.3 1.2 12.8% 16.1% .301 86 116 0.3 Brian Harrison
Taylor Guilbeau 7.7 4.0 1.0 10.0% 19.2% .306 98 102 0.3 Gabe Gonzalez
Miguel Aguilar 9.4 4.0 1.2 10.1% 23.9% .296 109 92 0.3 Tom Burgmeier
Matt Grace 6.8 2.4 1.4 6.1% 17.4% .301 101 99 0.2 Erasmo Ramirez
Yoan López 8.5 3.7 1.3 9.4% 21.9% .291 102 98 0.2 Eddie Watt
Joe Mantiply 7.4 3.1 1.3 8.0% 19.0% .292 98 102 0.2 Mike Venafro
Michael Tonkin 10.0 4.2 1.4 10.6% 25.3% .297 104 96 0.2 Kevin Gryboski
Mack Lemieux 8.5 5.2 1.5 12.7% 20.7% .299 84 119 0.2 Juan Agosto
Kyle Crockett 7.1 2.8 1.2 7.1% 18.3% .303 106 95 0.2 Leo Kiely
Sam Moll 8.6 4.3 1.1 10.7% 21.5% .299 99 101 0.1 Jim Brewer
Silvino Bracho 9.7 3.4 1.6 8.7% 25.0% .288 97 103 0.1 Brian Edmondson
Junior Garcia 10.0 5.3 1.1 13.1% 24.8% .298 97 103 0.0 Aaron Rakers
Justin Vernia 5.9 3.7 1.8 9.0% 14.5% .299 79 126 0.0 Mark Cahill
Eduardo Jimenez 6.9 3.8 1.3 9.4% 17.3% .298 94 107 0.0 Scott Munter
West Tunnell 9.9 6.4 1.2 15.3% 23.9% .293 92 108 0.0 Newt Kimball
Dillon Overton 6.3 2.8 2.0 6.8% 15.7% .306 78 128 0.0 Jeff Ballard
Edwin Jackson 7.0 4.0 1.8 9.9% 17.0% .302 77 129 -0.1 Vern Kennedy
Mark Leiter Jr. 8.9 4.2 1.7 10.4% 22.2% .298 89 112 -0.1 Weston Weber
Damien Magnifico 9.5 6.9 1.2 16.4% 22.7% .301 87 115 -0.2 Jerry Johnson
Bradley Roney 11.2 6.9 1.4 16.6% 27.1% .287 87 115 -0.2 Marc Pisciotta
Travis Bergen 9.5 5.7 1.4 13.7% 22.9% .300 85 118 -0.2 Tom Thurberg
Kyler Stout 9.1 8.1 1.3 18.8% 21.1% .284 78 128 -0.3 Paul Giel
Mauricio Cabrera 10.3 8.2 1.2 18.9% 23.8% .300 81 124 -0.4 Ken Wright

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

newest oldest most voted
dl80
Member
Member
dl80

Whither Josh Rojas? Any reason to think he gets one more chance to hit, maybe as a super utility guy?