2021 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Chicago Cubs.
Batters
I would argue that the current Cubs squad is a lot like The Godfather: Part III. Brilliance has been supplanted by mere competence, and most of the results look unimpressive when compared to the team’s peak. Like the latter days of Michael Corleone’s criminal empire, the Cubs have fallen from dominance. The manager for those teams is in Los Angeles, the front office’s leading light is gone, and much of the supporting cast has moved on. You can even pretend that whatever sum the Cubs lost in 2020 is a parallel to the $600 million stolen by Don Lucchesi and Archbishop Gilday through International Immobiliare! Heck, maybe Joey Lucchesi will throw a no-hitter against the Cubs.
Some of the central components of the Cubs’ more potent offenses remain in Javier Báez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant. But none of them can boast a 2020 anywhere near their best season, and only Rizzo was really a key contributor. All three are free agents after 2021, and with the Cubs crying poor, it doesn’t seem like any big contract offers are in the works. If anything, the speculation this winter has been more about trades than extensions, particularly with Bryant. The larger issue is that all three have seen their projections follow a downward trajectory in recent seasons, so even re-signing all three would be no panacea.
The good news for the Cubs comes from outside Wrigley: if they’re not trying aggressively to win the division, nobody else in the NL Central appears to be either. The Brewers aren’t making big signings and the Cardinals were apparently content to non-tender Kolten Wong. The Pirates will be lucky to win 70 games, and the Cincinnati Reds, the division’s most aggressive team the last two winters, seem more interested in possibly shopping Luis Castillo and/or Sonny Gray than finding a replacement for Trevor Bauer. ZiPS ranks Chicago’s lineup somewhere around 10th-12th in baseball (pending the final team projections), and while that’s not particularly impressive, it may be the best ranking in the NL Central.
Jason Heyward has to demonstrate that his surprisingly solid 2020 revival has legs, but he does get his best offensive projection in a few years. Ian Happ looks a lot like a keeper and is much better in center field than he has any right to be. The problem is what comes after these two; ZiPS remains on the fence about Nico Hoerner’s long-term value, and the only offensive prospect it’s really excited about is Miguel Amaya. Catching prospects, however, will break your heart.
This offense is good enough for now, but it won’t carry the team, and the club will need a lot of investment or clever trading in 2022 to avoid looking unbearably bleak. Speaking of unbearably bleak…
Pitchers
ZiPS is decidedly not a fan of the Cubs’ pitching staff. First, the two exceptions. Yu Darvish is back and he’s a legitimate star with his reconfigured repertoire and dramatically improved control. Despite the rocky start to his stint in Chicago, he’s a wonderful pitcher to have at the top of the rotation. Elsewhere, Kyle Hendricks is one of the best number-two pitchers in the game and was fortunate to reach the majors at a time when pitch movement became sexier than eye-popping radar gun readouts.
But if Steamer is pessimistic about the back of the rotation, ZiPS’ view is more depressing than the end of a Cormac McCarthy novel. Neither Jose Quintana nor Jon Lester, both free agents, got excellent projections, but they’d still project as the third and fourth-best pitchers on the team, respectively. The computer doesn’t see Adbert Alzolay as a good bet to match his 2020 ERA of 3.05 in 21 1/3 innings, barely sees Alec Mills as a major league starter, and pegs Colin Rea as below replacement level. The only starting pitcher outside the top two with a projection you can remotely call sunny is Brailyn Marquez, whose major league debut is literally his only experience above High-A.
Similarly, ZiPS projects the bullpen as a bottom-five group based on the current roster. Most of the marginal relievers already have major league contracts for the 2021 season, making it unlikely that the Cubs will just cut them and move on. The Craig Kimbrel projection does at least suggest adequacy, which the Cubs will happily take if he can consistently maintain that level throughout the entire season. It’s not ideal if he again loses the closer job before he figures out where the strike zone is.
Despite all this, the Cubs still have a good shot at making the playoffs because, again, NL Central stuff. But this year, even if successful on those terms, will feel more valedictory than triumphant, as the Cubs look towards 2022 with a roster that will retain few of the reasons they popped champagne in 2016.
Player | B | Age | PO | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Javier Báez | R | 28 | SS | 606 | 571 | 85 | 152 | 31 | 4 | 29 | 91 | 27 | 170 | 12 | 5 |
Anthony Rizzo | L | 31 | 1B | 592 | 497 | 73 | 130 | 24 | 2 | 24 | 85 | 68 | 89 | 7 | 3 |
Kris Bryant | R | 29 | 3B | 596 | 515 | 86 | 130 | 29 | 3 | 24 | 67 | 62 | 137 | 3 | 2 |
Ian Happ | B | 26 | CF | 567 | 488 | 76 | 122 | 23 | 2 | 27 | 77 | 72 | 168 | 8 | 5 |
Willson Contreras | R | 29 | C | 498 | 429 | 63 | 107 | 22 | 2 | 18 | 68 | 49 | 118 | 3 | 4 |
Kyle Schwarber | L | 28 | LF | 536 | 457 | 73 | 105 | 19 | 2 | 31 | 79 | 72 | 152 | 2 | 2 |
Jason Heyward | L | 31 | RF | 500 | 436 | 62 | 112 | 18 | 4 | 14 | 59 | 57 | 89 | 5 | 2 |
David Bote | R | 28 | 2B | 431 | 378 | 51 | 87 | 17 | 2 | 16 | 64 | 44 | 119 | 5 | 2 |
Victor Caratini | B | 27 | C | 366 | 324 | 38 | 83 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 45 | 33 | 76 | 0 | 1 |
Ian Miller | L | 29 | CF | 534 | 490 | 57 | 126 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 46 | 33 | 97 | 28 | 6 |
Nico Hoerner | R | 24 | SS | 424 | 383 | 55 | 100 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 32 | 61 | 9 | 5 |
Miguel Amaya | R | 22 | C | 465 | 405 | 55 | 81 | 24 | 1 | 15 | 62 | 48 | 106 | 1 | 0 |
Patrick Wisdom | R | 29 | 3B | 436 | 394 | 53 | 88 | 18 | 1 | 18 | 59 | 35 | 139 | 7 | 2 |
Abiatal Avelino | R | 26 | SS | 540 | 508 | 55 | 127 | 20 | 7 | 10 | 50 | 24 | 101 | 14 | 5 |
Jason Kipnis | L | 34 | 2B | 454 | 403 | 47 | 96 | 23 | 1 | 12 | 56 | 42 | 96 | 5 | 1 |
Ildemaro Vargas | B | 29 | 2B | 447 | 421 | 50 | 111 | 20 | 5 | 7 | 39 | 20 | 50 | 4 | 2 |
Rafael Ortega | L | 30 | CF | 526 | 480 | 58 | 118 | 25 | 6 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 94 | 14 | 6 |
Steven Souza Jr. | R | 32 | RF | 338 | 295 | 37 | 64 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 48 | 38 | 111 | 8 | 2 |
Jordan Patterson | L | 29 | 1B | 460 | 415 | 54 | 92 | 21 | 2 | 17 | 50 | 27 | 146 | 3 | 2 |
Hernán Pérez | R | 30 | 2B | 364 | 341 | 39 | 86 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 38 | 19 | 74 | 10 | 2 |
Corban Joseph | L | 32 | 2B | 478 | 444 | 48 | 115 | 23 | 1 | 8 | 49 | 27 | 57 | 2 | 2 |
Trent Giambrone | R | 27 | 2B | 493 | 450 | 56 | 100 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 55 | 36 | 137 | 15 | 6 |
José Martínez | R | 32 | RF | 425 | 386 | 48 | 100 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 51 | 36 | 95 | 2 | 0 |
Taylor Gushue | B | 27 | C | 371 | 339 | 38 | 76 | 15 | 1 | 12 | 41 | 25 | 101 | 0 | 0 |
Mark Zagunis | R | 28 | RF | 408 | 352 | 46 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 10 | 40 | 48 | 124 | 7 | 3 |
P.J. Higgins | R | 28 | C | 447 | 398 | 43 | 92 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 37 | 89 | 3 | 2 |
Max Schrock | L | 26 | 3B | 374 | 345 | 37 | 84 | 15 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 25 | 66 | 5 | 2 |
Billy Hamilton | B | 30 | CF | 407 | 370 | 56 | 84 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 30 | 91 | 32 | 9 |
Cameron Maybin | R | 34 | LF | 343 | 307 | 40 | 75 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 29 | 33 | 86 | 11 | 5 |
Albert Almora Jr. | R | 27 | CF | 346 | 319 | 40 | 79 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 19 | 62 | 3 | 1 |
Tyler Payne | R | 28 | C | 349 | 326 | 33 | 70 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 35 | 18 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
Daniel Descalso | L | 34 | 2B | 327 | 279 | 37 | 59 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 39 | 42 | 88 | 2 | 1 |
Michael Hermosillo | R | 26 | CF | 367 | 324 | 40 | 68 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 37 | 27 | 116 | 12 | 6 |
Alfonso Rivas | L | 24 | 1B | 523 | 469 | 54 | 113 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 46 | 125 | 3 | 3 |
Brennen Davis | R | 21 | CF | 207 | 185 | 29 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 31 | 15 | 48 | 4 | 2 |
Ryan LaMarre | R | 32 | CF | 397 | 364 | 35 | 80 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 24 | 122 | 10 | 6 |
Cam Balego | R | 26 | 3B | 434 | 381 | 43 | 77 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 37 | 39 | 102 | 2 | 5 |
Jose Lobaton | B | 36 | C | 302 | 276 | 27 | 57 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 22 | 85 | 1 | 0 |
Erick Castillo | R | 28 | C | 159 | 145 | 12 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Josh Phegley | R | 33 | C | 265 | 241 | 33 | 54 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 14 | 50 | 0 | 1 |
Aramis Ademan | L | 22 | SS | 500 | 447 | 48 | 91 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 45 | 41 | 127 | 12 | 11 |
Vance Vizcaino | L | 26 | LF | 371 | 340 | 36 | 74 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 112 | 19 | 9 |
Christopher Morel | R | 22 | 3B | 316 | 298 | 30 | 62 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 11 | 85 | 5 | 8 |
Connor Myers | R | 27 | CF | 396 | 367 | 31 | 68 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 148 | 11 | 6 |
Player | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | ISO | BABIP | RC/27 | Def | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Javier Báez | .266 | .302 | .487 | 102 | .221 | .331 | 5.5 | 2 | 3.3 | Alfonso Soriano |
Anthony Rizzo | .262 | .372 | .463 | 118 | .201 | .276 | 6.3 | 4 | 3.3 | Richie Hebner |
Kris Bryant | .252 | .347 | .460 | 110 | .208 | .299 | 5.8 | -2 | 3.2 | Todd Zeile |
Ian Happ | .250 | .350 | .471 | 113 | .221 | .324 | 5.9 | -6 | 2.8 | Ron Swoboda |
Willson Contreras | .249 | .347 | .436 | 104 | .186 | .304 | 5.3 | -3 | 2.6 | Johnny Romano |
Kyle Schwarber | .230 | .340 | .484 | 113 | .254 | .270 | 5.7 | 0 | 2.4 | Greg Brock |
Jason Heyward | .257 | .346 | .413 | 99 | .156 | .294 | 5.2 | 7 | 2.2 | Del Unser |
David Bote | .230 | .318 | .413 | 90 | .183 | .292 | 4.6 | 1 | 1.5 | Jay Canizaro |
Victor Caratini | .256 | .333 | .389 | 89 | .133 | .313 | 4.6 | -1 | 1.3 | Jerry Grote |
Ian Miller | .257 | .310 | .359 | 75 | .102 | .310 | 4.4 | 3 | 1.3 | Eddie Milner |
Nico Hoerner | .261 | .325 | .366 | 82 | .104 | .300 | 4.3 | 0 | 1.2 | Frankie Gustine |
Miguel Amaya | .200 | .295 | .375 | 74 | .175 | .232 | 3.8 | 1 | 1.1 | Rick Wilkins |
Patrick Wisdom | .223 | .292 | .411 | 82 | .188 | .295 | 4.3 | 0 | 0.9 | Jim Chamblee |
Abiatal Avelino | .250 | .285 | .376 | 72 | .126 | .295 | 3.9 | 2 | 0.9 | Aaron Holbert |
Jason Kipnis | .238 | .312 | .390 | 83 | .151 | .285 | 4.4 | -2 | 0.9 | Chris Truby |
Ildemaro Vargas | .264 | .298 | .385 | 78 | .121 | .286 | 4.2 | 3 | 0.9 | Alex Cintron |
Rafael Ortega | .246 | .309 | .392 | 82 | .146 | .285 | 4.4 | -3 | 0.8 | Eddie Milner |
Steven Souza Jr. | .217 | .312 | .410 | 88 | .193 | .298 | 4.5 | 2 | 0.8 | Brad Tyler |
Jordan Patterson | .222 | .290 | .405 | 80 | .183 | .298 | 4.0 | 7 | 0.7 | Doug DeVore |
Hernán Pérez | .252 | .290 | .396 | 78 | .144 | .296 | 4.3 | 0 | 0.7 | Julian Javier |
Corban Joseph | .259 | .302 | .369 | 75 | .110 | .282 | 4.0 | 1 | 0.6 | Mark Christman |
Trent Giambrone | .222 | .283 | .389 | 74 | .167 | .278 | 3.9 | 0 | 0.6 | Dan Uggla |
José Martínez | .259 | .322 | .404 | 89 | .145 | .315 | 4.8 | -3 | 0.5 | Keith Moreland |
Taylor Gushue | .224 | .278 | .381 | 71 | .156 | .283 | 3.7 | -1 | 0.4 | Alan Ashby |
Mark Zagunis | .230 | .329 | .372 | 84 | .142 | .326 | 4.3 | -2 | 0.4 | Todd Self |
P.J. Higgins | .231 | .300 | .327 | 65 | .095 | .281 | 3.4 | 0 | 0.4 | Jeff Tackett |
Max Schrock | .243 | .299 | .345 | 69 | .101 | .286 | 3.7 | 1 | 0.3 | Bruce Yard |
Billy Hamilton | .227 | .283 | .311 | 56 | .084 | .293 | 3.5 | 5 | 0.3 | Rich Thompson |
Cameron Maybin | .244 | .321 | .365 | 80 | .121 | .321 | 4.2 | 0 | 0.3 | Chris Clapinski |
Albert Almora Jr. | .248 | .292 | .379 | 75 | .132 | .285 | 4.0 | -2 | 0.2 | Ron Henika |
Tyler Payne | .215 | .261 | .347 | 58 | .132 | .257 | 3.1 | 1 | 0.1 | Brandon Marsters |
Daniel Descalso | .211 | .316 | .355 | 76 | .143 | .279 | 3.8 | -5 | 0.0 | David Matranga |
Michael Hermosillo | .210 | .288 | .352 | 67 | .142 | .293 | 3.5 | -2 | -0.1 | Rashad Eldridge |
Alfonso Rivas | .241 | .314 | .345 | 73 | .104 | .315 | 3.8 | 3 | -0.1 | Francisco Melendez |
Brennen Davis | .189 | .267 | .400 | 72 | .211 | .203 | 3.6 | -3 | -0.1 | Curt Flood |
Ryan LaMarre | .220 | .275 | .330 | 58 | .110 | .314 | 3.1 | 2 | -0.2 | Reggie Williams |
Cam Balego | .202 | .293 | .310 | 59 | .108 | .255 | 2.9 | 2 | -0.2 | Pat Peavey |
Jose Lobaton | .207 | .268 | .337 | 58 | .130 | .272 | 3.1 | -2 | -0.3 | Joe Oliver |
Erick Castillo | .207 | .261 | .262 | 38 | .055 | .261 | 2.3 | 1 | -0.3 | Pedro Grifol |
Josh Phegley | .224 | .277 | .382 | 71 | .158 | .251 | 3.6 | -7 | -0.3 | Joe Oliver |
Aramis Ademan | .204 | .277 | .333 | 60 | .130 | .264 | 2.9 | -2 | -0.4 | Jose Morban |
Vance Vizcaino | .218 | .274 | .306 | 52 | .088 | .309 | 2.9 | 5 | -0.6 | Kevin Wiggins |
Christopher Morel | .208 | .242 | .342 | 51 | .134 | .267 | 2.4 | 1 | -0.8 | Kyle Reynolds |
Connor Myers | .185 | .232 | .270 | 32 | .084 | .301 | 2.0 | -1 | -2.0 | Justin Singleton |
Player | T | Age | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yu Darvish | R | 34 | 9 | 6 | 3.65 | 26 | 26 | 150.3 | 128 | 61 | 20 | 45 | 180 | 3.57 |
Kyle Hendricks | R | 31 | 11 | 10 | 4.11 | 28 | 28 | 166.3 | 167 | 76 | 25 | 35 | 137 | 4.23 |
Jose Quintana | L | 32 | 8 | 8 | 4.76 | 25 | 22 | 126.7 | 130 | 67 | 21 | 42 | 118 | 4.54 |
Jon Lester | L | 37 | 8 | 9 | 4.96 | 25 | 25 | 132.3 | 145 | 73 | 24 | 46 | 112 | 4.98 |
Cory Abbott | R | 25 | 7 | 8 | 5.08 | 25 | 25 | 125.7 | 125 | 71 | 22 | 62 | 128 | 5.09 |
Michael Rucker | R | 27 | 3 | 4 | 4.73 | 30 | 11 | 91.3 | 96 | 48 | 15 | 33 | 84 | 4.72 |
Alec Mills | R | 29 | 7 | 8 | 5.12 | 26 | 22 | 128.3 | 134 | 73 | 24 | 44 | 110 | 5.11 |
Brailyn Marquez | L | 22 | 5 | 6 | 4.95 | 18 | 18 | 76.3 | 73 | 42 | 10 | 46 | 76 | 4.86 |
Craig Kimbrel | R | 33 | 3 | 2 | 3.67 | 45 | 0 | 41.7 | 30 | 17 | 6 | 21 | 59 | 3.95 |
Tyler Chatwood | R | 31 | 5 | 5 | 4.91 | 24 | 13 | 80.7 | 73 | 44 | 9 | 54 | 82 | 4.75 |
Jeremy Jeffress | R | 33 | 4 | 3 | 4.05 | 52 | 0 | 53.3 | 50 | 24 | 6 | 21 | 46 | 4.27 |
Rowan Wick | R | 28 | 3 | 2 | 4.08 | 56 | 0 | 57.3 | 51 | 26 | 6 | 30 | 63 | 4.07 |
Adbert Alzolay | R | 26 | 4 | 4 | 5.10 | 20 | 17 | 77.7 | 75 | 44 | 14 | 40 | 83 | 5.09 |
Andrew Chafin | L | 31 | 3 | 2 | 4.03 | 65 | 0 | 44.7 | 40 | 20 | 5 | 18 | 51 | 3.69 |
Robert Stock | R | 31 | 3 | 3 | 4.32 | 40 | 2 | 50.0 | 45 | 24 | 6 | 29 | 56 | 4.36 |
Justin Steele | L | 25 | 3 | 3 | 4.95 | 12 | 12 | 40.0 | 40 | 22 | 6 | 21 | 38 | 4.96 |
James Bourque | R | 27 | 3 | 4 | 4.60 | 38 | 4 | 60.7 | 57 | 31 | 8 | 33 | 64 | 4.56 |
Jonathan Holder | R | 28 | 4 | 3 | 4.28 | 51 | 0 | 61.0 | 58 | 29 | 8 | 23 | 59 | 4.18 |
Jack Patterson | L | 25 | 5 | 5 | 5.09 | 25 | 10 | 70.7 | 71 | 40 | 9 | 42 | 63 | 5.01 |
Duane Underwood Jr. | R | 26 | 5 | 5 | 5.08 | 38 | 12 | 95.7 | 98 | 54 | 16 | 42 | 91 | 4.93 |
Duncan Robinson | R | 27 | 5 | 6 | 5.36 | 20 | 19 | 99.0 | 114 | 59 | 18 | 29 | 67 | 5.22 |
Erich Uelmen | R | 25 | 5 | 6 | 5.38 | 18 | 18 | 85.3 | 93 | 51 | 11 | 47 | 60 | 5.28 |
Ryan Tepera | R | 33 | 3 | 3 | 4.34 | 50 | 0 | 47.7 | 43 | 23 | 7 | 23 | 50 | 4.63 |
Dillon Maples | R | 29 | 3 | 3 | 4.29 | 44 | 0 | 42.0 | 30 | 20 | 4 | 35 | 61 | 4.30 |
Kelvin Herrera | R | 31 | 3 | 2 | 4.33 | 47 | 0 | 43.7 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 43 | 4.10 |
Tyler Olson | L | 31 | 2 | 1 | 4.34 | 47 | 0 | 37.3 | 36 | 18 | 5 | 17 | 39 | 4.36 |
Wyatt Short | L | 26 | 4 | 4 | 4.50 | 46 | 0 | 60.0 | 58 | 30 | 7 | 33 | 56 | 4.63 |
Pedro Strop | R | 36 | 3 | 3 | 4.46 | 44 | 0 | 36.3 | 32 | 18 | 5 | 18 | 35 | 4.78 |
Danny Hultzen | L | 31 | 0 | 0 | 4.72 | 17 | 1 | 13.3 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 5.06 |
Jerry Vasto | L | 29 | 2 | 2 | 4.60 | 26 | 0 | 29.3 | 27 | 15 | 4 | 16 | 31 | 4.68 |
D.J. Snelten | L | 29 | 3 | 3 | 4.64 | 32 | 0 | 42.7 | 42 | 22 | 5 | 25 | 37 | 4.94 |
Brock Stewart | R | 29 | 4 | 5 | 5.55 | 20 | 16 | 82.7 | 89 | 51 | 16 | 39 | 69 | 5.59 |
Jason Adam | R | 29 | 3 | 3 | 4.81 | 39 | 1 | 39.3 | 35 | 21 | 7 | 23 | 47 | 5.09 |
Jake Jewell | R | 28 | 3 | 3 | 4.67 | 53 | 0 | 61.7 | 62 | 32 | 8 | 27 | 52 | 4.74 |
Dan Winkler | R | 31 | 2 | 2 | 4.69 | 55 | 0 | 48.0 | 43 | 25 | 7 | 29 | 52 | 4.97 |
Bailey Clark | R | 26 | 3 | 3 | 5.17 | 28 | 4 | 47.0 | 48 | 27 | 6 | 30 | 39 | 5.29 |
Brad Wieck | L | 29 | 2 | 2 | 4.71 | 46 | 0 | 42.0 | 36 | 22 | 7 | 18 | 49 | 4.44 |
Craig Brooks | R | 28 | 3 | 3 | 4.72 | 43 | 0 | 53.3 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 36 | 60 | 4.83 |
Keegan Thompson | R | 26 | 5 | 7 | 5.65 | 20 | 20 | 92.3 | 104 | 58 | 20 | 32 | 74 | 5.60 |
Matt Dermody | L | 30 | 2 | 2 | 4.88 | 26 | 0 | 31.3 | 34 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 5.03 |
Rex Brothers | L | 33 | 2 | 3 | 5.13 | 31 | 1 | 33.3 | 27 | 19 | 5 | 27 | 45 | 5.04 |
Matt Swarmer | R | 27 | 7 | 11 | 5.66 | 24 | 22 | 125.7 | 144 | 79 | 29 | 38 | 104 | 5.60 |
Tyson Miller | R | 25 | 5 | 7 | 5.71 | 21 | 20 | 97.7 | 108 | 62 | 20 | 40 | 80 | 5.59 |
James Norwood | R | 27 | 2 | 3 | 4.94 | 44 | 0 | 51.0 | 47 | 28 | 7 | 33 | 58 | 4.81 |
Riley Thompson | R | 24 | 4 | 6 | 5.87 | 16 | 16 | 61.3 | 68 | 40 | 11 | 34 | 43 | 5.97 |
Kyle Ryan | L | 29 | 2 | 3 | 4.99 | 62 | 0 | 52.3 | 51 | 29 | 8 | 27 | 49 | 4.96 |
Colin Rea | R | 30 | 5 | 7 | 5.84 | 22 | 18 | 91.0 | 103 | 59 | 19 | 41 | 70 | 5.87 |
Dakota Mekkes | R | 26 | 3 | 4 | 5.07 | 46 | 0 | 55.0 | 51 | 31 | 8 | 37 | 58 | 5.14 |
Ben Taylor | R | 28 | 3 | 3 | 5.08 | 47 | 0 | 56.7 | 57 | 32 | 11 | 23 | 60 | 4.91 |
Cody Allen | R | 32 | 3 | 3 | 5.13 | 51 | 0 | 47.3 | 45 | 27 | 9 | 25 | 54 | 5.08 |
Ben Hecht | R | 26 | 2 | 3 | 5.40 | 41 | 1 | 51.7 | 50 | 31 | 6 | 39 | 49 | 5.23 |
Manuel Rodriguez | R | 24 | 3 | 3 | 5.36 | 39 | 0 | 47.0 | 45 | 28 | 6 | 35 | 44 | 5.39 |
Gray Fenter | R | 25 | 4 | 6 | 6.00 | 23 | 15 | 72.0 | 75 | 48 | 12 | 50 | 60 | 5.97 |
Luis Lugo | L | 27 | 4 | 6 | 6.17 | 20 | 16 | 86.0 | 97 | 59 | 17 | 48 | 67 | 6.04 |
Jordan Minch | L | 27 | 3 | 6 | 6.35 | 43 | 0 | 51.0 | 57 | 36 | 10 | 33 | 40 | 6.28 |
Player | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BB% | K% | BABIP | ERA+ | ERA- | WAR | No. 1 Comp |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yu Darvish | 10.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 7.2% | 28.9% | .292 | 120 | 83 | 3.2 | Orel Hershiser |
Kyle Hendricks | 7.4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 5.0% | 19.7% | .289 | 107 | 94 | 2.7 | Dock Ellis |
Jose Quintana | 8.4 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 7.7% | 21.6% | .301 | 92 | 109 | 1.1 | Kent Mercker |
Jon Lester | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 7.9% | 19.2% | .306 | 88 | 113 | 0.9 | Wilbur Wood |
Cory Abbott | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 11.0% | 22.7% | .299 | 86 | 116 | 0.7 | Tom Edens |
Michael Rucker | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 8.2% | 20.9% | .306 | 93 | 108 | 0.7 | Bill Fischer |
Alec Mills | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 7.8% | 19.6% | .293 | 86 | 117 | 0.6 | Travis Smith 스미스 |
Brailyn Marquez | 9.0 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 13.3% | 21.9% | .299 | 88 | 113 | 0.5 | Eric Cyr |
Craig Kimbrel | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 11.9% | 33.3% | .273 | 119 | 84 | 0.5 | Jeff Nelson |
Tyler Chatwood | 9.1 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 14.7% | 22.3% | .292 | 89 | 112 | 0.5 | Jaime Cocanower |
Jeremy Jeffress | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 9.1% | 20.0% | .286 | 108 | 92 | 0.5 | Johnny Murphy |
Rowan Wick | 9.9 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 11.9% | 25.0% | .300 | 107 | 93 | 0.4 | George Smith |
Adbert Alzolay | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 11.5% | 23.9% | .296 | 86 | 116 | 0.4 | Greg Aquino |
Andrew Chafin | 10.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 9.4% | 26.7% | .304 | 109 | 92 | 0.3 | Randy Choate |
Robert Stock | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 13.0% | 25.1% | .300 | 101 | 99 | 0.3 | Jerry Johnson |
Justin Steele | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 11.7% | 21.1% | .301 | 88 | 113 | 0.3 | Nate Robertson |
James Bourque | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 12.2% | 23.6% | .301 | 95 | 105 | 0.3 | Jose Segura |
Jonathan Holder | 8.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 8.8% | 22.5% | .294 | 102 | 98 | 0.3 | Mark Ross |
Jack Patterson | 8.0 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 13.0% | 19.4% | .301 | 86 | 116 | 0.3 | Chris Short |
Duane Underwood Jr. | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 9.9% | 21.4% | .303 | 86 | 116 | 0.3 | Yoel Hernandez |
Duncan Robinson | 6.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 6.6% | 15.3% | .302 | 82 | 122 | 0.2 | A.J. Sager |
Erich Uelmen | 6.3 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 11.9% | 15.2% | .303 | 81 | 123 | 0.2 | Jake Joseph |
Ryan Tepera | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 11.0% | 23.9% | .286 | 101 | 99 | 0.2 | Dennis Higgins |
Dillon Maples | 13.1 | 7.5 | 0.9 | 18.1% | 31.6% | .292 | 102 | 98 | 0.1 | Scott Fredrickson |
Kelvin Herrera | 8.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 8.0% | 22.9% | .309 | 101 | 99 | 0.1 | Doug Sisk |
Tyler Olson | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 10.3% | 23.6% | .304 | 101 | 99 | 0.1 | Tom Burgmeier |
Wyatt Short | 8.4 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 12.2% | 20.7% | .298 | 97 | 103 | 0.1 | Dan McGinn |
Pedro Strop | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 11.3% | 22.0% | .276 | 98 | 102 | 0.1 | Al Worthington |
Danny Hultzen | 9.5 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 13.1% | 23.0% | .306 | 93 | 108 | 0.0 | Darold Knowles |
Jerry Vasto | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 12.2% | 23.7% | .295 | 95 | 105 | 0.0 | Bobby Sprowl |
D.J. Snelten | 7.8 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 12.8% | 19.0% | .296 | 94 | 106 | 0.0 | Jim Brewer |
Brock Stewart | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 10.4% | 18.4% | .297 | 79 | 127 | 0.0 | Landon Jacobsen |
Jason Adam | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 13.0% | 26.6% | .289 | 91 | 110 | 0.0 | Ruddy Lugo |
Jake Jewell | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 9.9% | 19.0% | .297 | 94 | 107 | 0.0 | Gary Wagner |
Dan Winkler | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 13.4% | 24.0% | .288 | 93 | 107 | 0.0 | Dave Jolly |
Bailey Clark | 7.5 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 13.7% | 17.8% | .298 | 85 | 118 | 0.0 | Ken Wright |
Brad Wieck | 10.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 10.1% | 27.4% | .282 | 93 | 108 | 0.0 | Phil Norton |
Craig Brooks | 10.1 | 6.1 | 1.2 | 14.9% | 24.8% | .287 | 93 | 108 | 0.0 | George Smith |
Keegan Thompson | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 7.8% | 18.0% | .300 | 77 | 129 | -0.1 | Matt O’Brien |
Matt Dermody | 7.2 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 5.9% | 18.4% | .295 | 90 | 111 | -0.1 | Erasmo Ramirez |
Rex Brothers | 12.2 | 7.3 | 1.4 | 17.5% | 29.2% | .293 | 85 | 117 | -0.1 | Marshall Bridges |
Matt Swarmer | 7.4 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 6.8% | 18.7% | .303 | 77 | 129 | -0.1 | Bill King |
Tyson Miller | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 9.1% | 18.2% | .299 | 77 | 130 | -0.1 | Preston Larrison |
James Norwood | 10.2 | 5.8 | 1.2 | 14.2% | 24.9% | .303 | 89 | 113 | -0.1 | Pete Sikaras |
Riley Thompson | 6.3 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 11.9% | 15.1% | .295 | 75 | 134 | -0.2 | Jesus Silva |
Kyle Ryan | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 11.6% | 21.0% | .293 | 88 | 114 | -0.2 | Jim Brewer |
Colin Rea | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 9.9% | 16.9% | .300 | 75 | 133 | -0.3 | Rick Rodriguez |
Dakota Mekkes | 9.5 | 6.1 | 1.3 | 14.7% | 23.0% | .295 | 86 | 116 | -0.3 | Heathcliff Slocumb |
Ben Taylor | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 9.3% | 24.2% | .303 | 86 | 116 | -0.3 | Jeff McCurry |
Cody Allen | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 11.8% | 25.6% | .298 | 85 | 117 | -0.3 | Jim Czajkowski |
Ben Hecht | 8.5 | 6.8 | 1.0 | 16.0% | 20.2% | .301 | 81 | 123 | -0.4 | Darin Moore |
Manuel Rodriguez | 8.4 | 6.7 | 1.1 | 15.8% | 19.9% | .293 | 82 | 122 | -0.4 | Dave Cole |
Gray Fenter | 7.5 | 6.3 | 1.5 | 14.7% | 17.6% | .294 | 73 | 137 | -0.4 | Luz Portobanco |
Luis Lugo | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 11.9% | 16.7% | .302 | 71 | 141 | -0.6 | John Courtright |
Jordan Minch | 7.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 13.6% | 16.5% | .301 | 69 | 145 | -1.0 | George Sherrill |
Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.
ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
We should have seen it coming when Theo made the Cubbies put his niece in the starting rotation….