ZiPS 2021 Projections: Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins.

Batters

To make the playoffs in 2020, the Marlins needed a few things to happen. First, some of their young starting pitching, the organization’s strength, had to take a big step forward. The other thing was that the offense had to become, well, an MLB-ready lineup. With a 2018 team wRC+ of 83 and 2019’s woeful 79, run scoring (or the lack thereof) was a serious drag on the team’s hopes. Doubling this humiliation is the fact that Miami’s punchless attack could be directly linked to the trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and J.T. Realmuto.

But with the lineup improving to a 95 wRC+ and the pitching being a plus, the Marlins snuck into the playoffs for the first time since 2003. The temporary (crossing fingers) expansion to the playoff field and some fortune also aided, allowing Miami to play October baseball despite a record right around .500 and a Pythagorean record of 26–34. But again, flags fly forever!

The challenge is that the offense remains a team weakness, and it’s unlikely there’s any savior in the organization. While it would be incorrect to say that the Marlins didn’t get anyone solid in return for their quartet of traded stars — Sixto Sánchez is a wonderful young pitcher to have under your employ — it is fair to say that there’s a real chance they didn’t get any offensive contributors in these trades. Starlin Castro is already one (and wasn’t a prospect), and none of Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Díaz, or Magneuris Sierra were the reasons they made the playoffs. Miami did indirectly pick up a solid prospect by the transitive property of trade-ality — Zac Gallen was acquired in the Ozuna trade and was later swapped for Jazz Chisholm — but only Chisholm projects by ZiPS to have a 10-WAR career. Only two position players project to have at least 10 WAR remaining: Chisholm and Brian Anderson. The average in ZiPS is about five hitters per team, and a young team emerging from a rebuild ought to have more than this at this point.

I’m a fan of Anderson at third base and glad that the Marlins seem to be content with him there. He’ll simply have more value long-term if he can handle the hot corner; his bat just isn’t that potent for a corner outfielder, and he’s not at an age at which he’s likely hiding another gear or two. Starling Marte is no longer the borderline star he was at his best, but he remains solid, as his glove hasn’t dropped too far to force a move to a corner. A free-agent-to-be, there’s no indication that a trade is in the works — something that should make people happy, as this franchise has a lot to do to repair its reputation long-term. Saddling Kim Ng, the team’s new GM, with the team’s latest cynical sell-off would be a depressing follow-up to 2020.

I don’t imagine JJ Bleday, a 2019 first-rounder, gets this much playing time when 2020 actually happens, but his projected PA in our depth charts reflect how empty the upper minors are of interesting bats. The Marlins need to do better than simply not going on a selling spree; they need to add real offensive talent at the corners. Yes, they’re paying Corey Dickerson for another season, but he should be a fallback option, not Plan A.

Pitchers

The rotation is the happiest part of the Marlins. The starters combined for a 4.31 ERA, and while that’s not the most exciting number on the surface, 53 of the team’s 60 starts were made by pitchers 25 and under for the 2020 season.

There’s no true No. 1 starter right now, but Sánchez becoming an ace at any time in the next few years should not be the least bit shocking to any observer. Between Pablo López, Sandy Alcantara, Elieser Hernandez, and Trevor Rogers, the team has both upside and depth. That’s not to say there’s no risk involved, but because of the ages of these pitchers, the probability is that they’ll improve as a group, even if not every pitcher is going to develop further. And that’s even before considering someone like Edward Cabrera, a pitcher ZiPS already thinks is a legitimate major leaguer and who was behind only Sánchez among pitchers in Eric Longenhagen’s Marlins prospect list from 2020.

Losing Gallen hurts given how much he developed after his trade to Arizona, but Miami was dealing from a source of strength here and was also able to afford losing Caleb Smith to bring Marte to town. If the Marlins are serious about contention, I’d like them to bring in at least one plug-and-play veteran, but they don’t necessarily have to due to the strength elsewhere.

The bullpen may eventually be strengthened by the pitching prospects who don’t make the cut in the rotation, but 2021 is likely a little too soon to get those kinds of reinforcements. The highs aren’t that high; even with ZiPS being optimistic on Richard Bleier and James Hoyt, not a single Miami reliever projects with an ERA+ of 120. And some of the options at the back of the pen, such as Zach Pop or Jordan Holloway, project around replacement level. Nobody in baseball seems like they’re eager to give big deals to relief pitchers this winter, so there’s certainly an opportunity for ownership to let the front office sign a spicy arm or two here.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

 

 

 

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.