ZiPS 2021 Projections: Miami Marlins by Dan Szymborski December 16, 2020 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. ZiPS Projections 20212020ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFGALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters To make the playoffs in 2020, the Marlins needed a few things to happen. First, some of their young starting pitching, the organization’s strength, had to take a big step forward. The other thing was that the offense had to become, well, an MLB-ready lineup. With a 2018 team wRC+ of 83 and 2019’s woeful 79, run scoring (or the lack thereof) was a serious drag on the team’s hopes. Doubling this humiliation is the fact that Miami’s punchless attack could be directly linked to the trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and J.T. Realmuto. But with the lineup improving to a 95 wRC+ and the pitching being a plus, the Marlins snuck into the playoffs for the first time since 2003. The temporary (crossing fingers) expansion to the playoff field and some fortune also aided, allowing Miami to play October baseball despite a record right around .500 and a Pythagorean record of 26–34. But again, flags fly forever! The challenge is that the offense remains a team weakness, and it’s unlikely there’s any savior in the organization. While it would be incorrect to say that the Marlins didn’t get anyone solid in return for their quartet of traded stars — Sixto Sánchez is a wonderful young pitcher to have under your employ — it is fair to say that there’s a real chance they didn’t get any offensive contributors in these trades. Starlin Castro is already one (and wasn’t a prospect), and none of Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Díaz, or Magneuris Sierra were the reasons they made the playoffs. Miami did indirectly pick up a solid prospect by the transitive property of trade-ality — Zac Gallen was acquired in the Ozuna trade and was later swapped for Jazz Chisholm — but only Chisholm projects by ZiPS to have a 10-WAR career. Only two position players project to have at least 10 WAR remaining: Chisholm and Brian Anderson. The average in ZiPS is about five hitters per team, and a young team emerging from a rebuild ought to have more than this at this point. I’m a fan of Anderson at third base and glad that the Marlins seem to be content with him there. He’ll simply have more value long-term if he can handle the hot corner; his bat just isn’t that potent for a corner outfielder, and he’s not at an age at which he’s likely hiding another gear or two. Starling Marte is no longer the borderline star he was at his best, but he remains solid, as his glove hasn’t dropped too far to force a move to a corner. A free-agent-to-be, there’s no indication that a trade is in the works — something that should make people happy, as this franchise has a lot to do to repair its reputation long-term. Saddling Kim Ng, the team’s new GM, with the team’s latest cynical sell-off would be a depressing follow-up to 2020. I don’t imagine JJ Bleday, a 2019 first-rounder, gets this much playing time when 2020 actually happens, but his projected PA in our depth charts reflect how empty the upper minors are of interesting bats. The Marlins need to do better than simply not going on a selling spree; they need to add real offensive talent at the corners. Yes, they’re paying Corey Dickerson for another season, but he should be a fallback option, not Plan A. Pitchers The rotation is the happiest part of the Marlins. The starters combined for a 4.31 ERA, and while that’s not the most exciting number on the surface, 53 of the team’s 60 starts were made by pitchers 25 and under for the 2020 season. There’s no true No. 1 starter right now, but Sánchez becoming an ace at any time in the next few years should not be the least bit shocking to any observer. Between Pablo López, Sandy Alcantara, Elieser Hernandez, and Trevor Rogers, the team has both upside and depth. That’s not to say there’s no risk involved, but because of the ages of these pitchers, the probability is that they’ll improve as a group, even if not every pitcher is going to develop further. And that’s even before considering someone like Edward Cabrera, a pitcher ZiPS already thinks is a legitimate major leaguer and who was behind only Sánchez among pitchers in Eric Longenhagen’s Marlins prospect list from 2020. Losing Gallen hurts given how much he developed after his trade to Arizona, but Miami was dealing from a source of strength here and was also able to afford losing Caleb Smith to bring Marte to town. If the Marlins are serious about contention, I’d like them to bring in at least one plug-and-play veteran, but they don’t necessarily have to due to the strength elsewhere. The bullpen may eventually be strengthened by the pitching prospects who don’t make the cut in the rotation, but 2021 is likely a little too soon to get those kinds of reinforcements. The highs aren’t that high; even with ZiPS being optimistic on Richard Bleier and James Hoyt, not a single Miami reliever projects with an ERA+ of 120. And some of the options at the back of the pen, such as Zach Pop or Jordan Holloway, project around replacement level. Nobody in baseball seems like they’re eager to give big deals to relief pitchers this winter, so there’s certainly an opportunity for ownership to let the front office sign a spicy arm or two here. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Batters – Standard Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Brian Anderson R 28 3B 593 523 69 133 28 3 22 80 52 148 3 2 Miguel Rojas R 32 SS 494 448 51 121 22 1 8 50 35 60 9 4 Starling Marte R 32 CF 590 545 80 148 27 4 15 64 25 105 25 8 Jon Berti R 31 3B 395 341 51 81 12 2 6 33 42 94 24 6 Garrett Cooper R 30 1B 424 381 52 100 19 0 15 58 36 99 0 0 Corey Dickerson L 32 LF 502 468 57 126 26 3 15 57 29 95 3 2 Jesús Aguilar R 31 1B 482 420 58 105 18 0 18 75 50 112 0 1 Griffin Conine L 23 RF 385 349 53 70 20 2 14 61 31 149 3 0 Francisco Cervelli R 35 C 303 258 33 58 10 1 8 34 34 75 3 1 Isan Díaz L 25 2B 500 448 62 103 18 3 12 58 48 133 6 3 Sean Rodríguez R 36 3B 186 160 22 35 4 1 5 15 20 66 1 1 Ryan Lavarnway R 33 C 255 228 24 53 10 0 6 22 20 58 0 1 Jazz Chisholm L 23 SS 454 406 53 80 10 6 17 51 40 158 14 7 Jorge Alfaro R 28 C 418 388 39 89 13 1 12 51 18 147 4 2 Matt Joyce L 36 RF 318 273 38 64 12 0 7 29 43 76 1 1 Monte Harrison R 25 CF 404 367 46 73 11 2 11 35 30 163 25 4 Chad Wallach R 29 C 232 209 21 43 9 0 5 21 17 67 0 0 Travis Snider L 33 RF 389 349 38 78 16 2 7 30 37 109 2 2 Julian Leon R 25 C 313 269 31 44 9 0 8 26 33 125 0 1 JJ Bleday L 23 RF 454 425 42 92 18 0 11 43 29 111 1 1 Nick Fortes R 24 C 346 308 29 63 12 2 4 28 27 66 1 1 Logan Forsythe R 34 2B 361 316 34 65 14 1 5 26 40 99 2 1 Jesús Sánchez산체스 L 23 RF 470 427 46 93 16 2 11 51 35 117 4 4 Lewis Brinson R 27 CF 454 416 46 86 16 4 12 48 29 138 11 3 Wilkin Castillo B 37 C 231 216 18 43 8 1 3 19 12 40 3 1 Harold Ramirez R 26 LF 514 479 56 121 23 2 10 53 24 104 5 3 Lewin Díaz L 24 1B 447 419 43 91 20 2 14 48 21 109 0 1 Bryson Brigman R 26 SS 513 468 44 100 15 2 3 29 35 100 8 5 Brian Miller L 25 LF 535 496 49 121 21 4 1 34 32 97 23 9 Tristan Pompey B 24 LF 218 189 20 33 7 1 2 13 26 82 6 4 Brett Eibner R 32 RF 286 260 29 58 9 1 8 28 22 80 2 1 José Devers L 21 SS 418 387 36 87 12 5 0 21 22 77 12 6 Demetrius Sims R 25 SS 399 353 36 63 12 2 6 27 31 142 8 9 Joe Dunand R 25 SS 538 487 48 98 19 1 8 44 33 152 1 1 J.D. Osborne R 25 C 269 247 23 45 9 0 5 22 13 82 2 0 Stone Garrett R 25 LF 442 420 38 87 17 3 9 40 16 149 10 5 Marcus Chiu R 24 1B 376 331 36 55 11 3 8 28 28 153 6 3 Lazaro Alonso L 26 1B 446 391 42 76 14 0 8 36 52 160 1 1 Riley Mahan L 25 2B 490 450 41 86 17 2 7 38 28 175 3 1 Jerar Encarnación R 23 RF 474 445 43 91 15 1 11 44 26 159 4 3 Victor Victor Mesa R 24 CF 521 488 37 115 6 4 0 23 20 84 13 2 Connor Scott L 21 CF 451 416 40 79 16 4 4 30 32 139 14 12 Batters – Advanced Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Brian Anderson .254 .337 .446 112 .191 .314 5.4 0 3.0 Mike Shannon Miguel Rojas .270 .331 .377 94 .107 .297 4.6 8 2.5 Johnny Logan Starling Marte .272 .321 .418 101 .147 .313 5.2 -2 2.2 Bake McBride Jon Berti .238 .333 .337 85 .100 .311 4.4 4 1.5 Esteban German Garrett Cooper .262 .333 .430 107 .168 .318 5.2 1 1.3 Matthew LeCroy Corey Dickerson .269 .313 .434 102 .165 .310 5.0 2 1.2 Raul Ibanez Jesús Aguilar .250 .330 .421 104 .171 .300 5.0 1 1.2 Ryan Shealy Griffin Conine .201 .273 .390 79 .189 .301 3.7 3 0.2 Ronnie Gideon Francisco Cervelli .225 .334 .364 92 .140 .286 4.3 -4 0.9 Mike Heath Isan Díaz .230 .307 .364 83 .134 .300 3.9 -1 0.8 Paul Runge Sean Rodríguez .219 .315 .350 83 .131 .337 3.7 3 0.5 Jim Davenport Ryan Lavarnway .232 .303 .355 80 .123 .287 3.7 -1 0.5 Robert Machado Jazz Chisholm .197 .278 .377 77 .180 .273 3.5 -2 0.4 Brandon Cromer Jorge Alfaro .229 .282 .361 75 .131 .336 3.6 -4 0.1 Dan Wilson Matt Joyce .234 .336 .355 90 .121 .300 4.2 -4 0.1 Ernie Young Monte Harrison .199 .270 .330 63 .131 .321 3.5 0 0.0 Damon Mashore Chad Wallach .206 .274 .321 63 .115 .277 3.0 0 0.0 Bill Dobrolsky Travis Snider .223 .298 .341 75 .117 .305 3.5 3 -0.1 Cesar Geronimo Julian Leon .164 .269 .286 53 .123 .265 2.4 2 -0.1 J.C. Boscan JJ Bleday .216 .267 .336 64 .120 .267 3.1 1 -0.9 Brennan Boesch Nick Fortes .205 .277 .295 58 .091 .248 2.7 1 -0.2 Brian Moon Logan Forsythe .206 .299 .304 66 .098 .283 3.1 -2 -0.2 Jason Wood Jesús Sánchez .218 .279 .342 69 .124 .274 3.2 5 -0.3 Garrick Haltiwanger Lewis Brinson .207 .267 .351 68 .144 .278 3.3 -1 -0.3 Victor Mendez Wilkin Castillo .199 .245 .287 45 .088 .231 2.4 1 -0.5 Tony Pena Harold Ramirez .253 .296 .372 82 .119 .304 4.0 -4 -0.5 Bill Ortega Lewin Díaz .217 .257 .375 70 .158 .260 3.3 5 -0.6 Kevin Reimer Bryson Brigman .214 .275 .274 51 .060 .266 2.5 3 -0.7 Mike Terhune Brian Miller .244 .293 .308 66 .065 .302 3.3 4 -0.7 Bruce Fields Tristan Pompey .175 .276 .254 47 .079 .295 2.2 2 -0.8 Brent Gjesdal Brett Eibner .223 .284 .358 75 .135 .291 3.5 -5 -0.8 Alan Cockrell José Devers .225 .278 .282 55 .057 .281 2.7 -3 -0.9 Tom Foley Demetrius Sims .178 .263 .275 48 .096 .278 2.1 1 -1.0 Brett King Joe Dunand .201 .262 .294 52 .092 .275 2.6 -1 -1.1 Randy Blood J.D. Osborne .182 .238 .279 41 .097 .250 2.3 -5 -1.3 Jeff Winchester Stone Garrett .207 .244 .326 55 .119 .298 2.7 4 -1.3 Darrell Nicholas Marcus Chiu .166 .261 .290 51 .124 .276 2.5 -3 -1.7 Blake Bone Lazaro Alonso .194 .291 .292 61 .097 .305 2.8 -5 -1.8 Dustin Yount Riley Mahan .191 .246 .284 45 .093 .295 2.4 -2 -1.8 Chris Shaddy Jerar Encarnación .204 .251 .317 55 .112 .291 2.7 -1 -1.9 Eli Tintor Victor Victor Mesa .236 .269 .264 48 .029 .285 2.7 7 -0.7 Orlando Blackwell Connor Scott .190 .249 .276 44 .087 .275 2.1 -5 -2.3 Johnny Hernandez Pitchers – Standard Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP Pablo López R 25 10 9 4.15 27 27 134.3 127 62 18 40 129 4.10 Sixto Sánchez R 22 7 6 3.86 20 20 109.7 107 47 12 31 94 3.93 Sandy Alcantara R 25 9 9 4.51 30 30 171.7 164 86 22 76 142 4.66 Trevor Rogers L 23 8 7 4.28 25 24 124.0 120 59 17 48 119 4.37 Edward Cabrera R 23 7 7 4.57 22 22 100.3 93 51 14 55 103 4.76 Daniel Castano L 26 7 7 4.63 27 16 116.7 123 60 17 42 86 4.86 Braxton Garrett L 23 6 6 4.45 19 19 89.0 84 44 12 44 88 4.61 Elieser Hernandez R 26 4 4 4.68 27 19 100.0 93 52 19 35 112 4.64 Richard Bleier L 34 3 2 3.64 47 0 47.0 49 19 4 9 29 3.82 James Hoyt R 34 2 1 3.74 47 1 43.3 38 18 5 19 47 3.96 Jeff Brigham R 29 3 2 3.89 40 0 44.0 39 19 5 20 46 4.07 Brandon Leibrandt L 28 3 4 4.70 13 10 53.7 56 28 7 22 39 4.82 Jose Urena R 29 3 3 4.20 52 3 64.3 61 30 8 25 53 4.50 Paul Campbell R 25 8 10 5.15 25 20 122.3 137 70 20 40 81 5.13 Brandon Kintzler R 36 4 3 4.06 56 0 51.0 50 23 6 16 39 4.30 Cody Poteet R 26 6 7 5.25 22 22 116.7 129 68 18 46 76 5.22 Nick Vincent R 34 3 3 4.15 48 1 52.0 52 24 8 13 44 4.35 Ryne Stanek R 29 2 2 4.06 55 0 62.0 52 28 9 32 75 4.24 Drew Steckenrider R 30 3 3 4.04 52 0 49.0 41 22 7 22 61 4.02 Alexander Guillen R 25 3 3 4.23 44 0 72.3 64 34 10 34 80 4.34 Jordan Holloway R 25 5 6 5.09 17 16 63.7 61 36 7 47 57 5.22 Jake Fishman L 26 1 0 4.23 44 0 61.7 61 29 8 19 54 4.19 Yimi García R 30 3 3 4.11 50 0 46.0 42 21 7 14 47 4.29 Preston Guilmet R 33 3 3 4.60 38 4 58.7 59 30 11 18 60 4.65 Alex Vesia L 25 4 3 4.12 31 0 48.0 43 22 6 23 52 4.26 Stephen Tarpley L 28 4 4 4.47 36 2 54.3 50 27 5 32 56 4.30 Tyler Stevens R 25 4 4 4.30 47 0 67.0 63 32 9 27 68 4.24 Josh D. Smith L 31 4 4 4.68 34 4 59.7 56 31 8 35 63 4.77 Mike Morin R 30 2 2 4.37 43 1 47.3 50 23 6 12 31 4.47 Aaron Northcraft R 31 3 4 4.96 27 7 61.7 62 34 9 30 53 4.96 Adam Cimber R 30 3 3 4.30 55 0 52.3 54 25 6 15 36 4.38 Nick Neidert R 24 4 5 5.21 16 13 65.7 69 38 11 29 53 5.21 Tommy Eveld R 27 4 4 4.31 45 0 48.0 44 23 6 22 50 4.22 Pat Venditte R 36 3 3 4.39 32 1 41.0 37 20 6 18 45 4.42 Jordan Yamamoto R 25 5 7 5.38 22 21 103.7 101 62 18 51 94 5.27 Zach Thompson R 27 3 3 4.46 48 0 72.7 72 36 9 33 64 4.56 C.J. Carter R 24 3 3 4.47 39 0 54.3 51 27 6 31 51 4.62 Brian Moran L 32 2 2 4.53 40 0 45.7 42 23 6 23 45 4.63 Dylan Lee L 26 3 3 4.55 51 0 59.3 57 30 7 30 52 4.68 Ryan Cook R 34 1 2 4.67 30 0 27.0 25 14 4 16 28 5.03 Zach Pop R 24 3 3 4.89 34 0 42.3 43 23 7 18 37 5.07 Adam Conley L 31 5 5 4.81 64 0 63.7 65 34 10 24 55 4.77 Brad Boxberger R 33 3 3 4.99 46 0 39.7 35 22 7 26 47 5.15 Justin Shafer R 28 2 3 5.08 47 0 56.7 55 32 9 31 52 5.21 Jorge Guzman R 25 5 8 5.98 20 18 87.3 87 58 15 67 78 6.13 Pitchers – Advanced Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp Pablo López 8.6 2.7 1.2 7.0% 22.6% .291 104 96 2.0 Jaime Navarro Sixto Sánchez 7.7 2.5 1.0 6.7% 20.2% .295 112 90 2.0 Fred Newman Sandy Alcantara 7.4 4.0 1.2 10.1% 18.9% .283 96 105 1.9 Bump Hadley Trevor Rogers 8.6 3.5 1.2 8.9% 22.1% .297 101 99 1.7 Jimmy Anderson Edward Cabrera 9.2 4.9 1.3 12.3% 23.0% .293 94 106 1.1 Dick Ruthven Daniel Castano 6.6 3.2 1.3 8.2% 16.8% .294 93 107 1.0 Chuck Stobbs Braxton Garrett 8.9 4.4 1.2 11.2% 22.3% .294 97 103 1.0 Andy Hassler Elieser Hernandez 10.1 3.2 1.7 8.2% 26.2% .289 92 109 0.8 John Butcher Richard Bleier 5.6 1.7 0.8 4.5% 14.6% .294 118 84 0.5 Dick Coffman James Hoyt 9.8 3.9 1.0 10.2% 25.3% .292 115 87 0.5 Jumbo Brown Jeff Brigham 9.4 4.1 1.0 10.5% 24.2% .291 111 90 0.5 Ed Farmer Brandon Leibrandt 6.5 3.7 1.2 9.2% 16.4% .293 92 109 0.5 Bill Wight Jose Urena 7.4 3.5 1.1 9.0% 19.1% .282 103 97 0.5 Dick Hyde Paul Campbell 6.0 2.9 1.5 7.4% 15.0% .298 84 120 0.4 Nate Cornejo Brandon Kintzler 6.9 2.8 1.1 7.3% 17.9% .286 106 94 0.4 Clay Carroll Cody Poteet 5.9 3.5 1.4 8.8% 14.6% .295 82 122 0.3 Mike MacDonald Nick Vincent 7.6 2.3 1.4 5.9% 20.1% .289 104 96 0.3 Bobby Tiefenauer Ryne Stanek 10.9 4.6 1.3 12.0% 28.1% .287 106 94 0.3 Jack Meyer Drew Steckenrider 11.2 4.0 1.3 10.5% 29.2% .291 107 94 0.3 Ken Ryan Alexander Guillen 10.0 4.2 1.2 10.8% 25.5% .290 102 98 0.3 John Stuper Jordan Holloway 8.1 6.6 1.0 15.8% 19.1% .295 85 118 0.3 Preston Hanna Jake Fishman 7.9 2.8 1.2 7.2% 20.5% .294 102 98 0.3 Steve Sharts Yimi García 9.2 2.7 1.4 7.2% 24.1% .285 105 95 0.2 Chris Spurling Preston Guilmet 9.2 2.8 1.7 7.1% 23.8% .300 94 107 0.2 Chuck Crim Alex Vesia 9.8 4.3 1.1 11.0% 24.8% .294 104 96 0.2 Marcelino Lopez Stephen Tarpley 9.3 5.3 0.8 13.1% 22.9% .304 96 104 0.2 Tippy Martinez Tyler Stevens 9.1 3.6 1.2 9.3% 23.5% .297 100 100 0.2 Scott Munter Josh D. Smith 9.5 5.3 1.2 13.0% 23.3% .300 92 109 0.2 John Curtis Mike Morin 5.9 2.3 1.1 5.9% 15.3% .291 98 102 0.2 Ron Taylor Aaron Northcraft 7.7 4.4 1.3 10.9% 19.2% .293 87 115 0.2 Rob Stanifer Adam Cimber 6.2 2.6 1.0 6.6% 15.9% .291 100 100 0.2 Johnny Hetki Nick Neidert 7.3 4.0 1.5 9.9% 18.1% .294 83 121 0.2 Ronnie Ray Tommy Eveld 9.4 4.1 1.1 10.5% 23.9% .295 100 100 0.1 Matt Ryan Pat Venditte 9.9 4.0 1.3 10.1% 25.3% .292 98 102 0.1 Don Aase Jordan Yamamoto 8.2 4.4 1.6 11.0% 20.3% .283 80 125 0.1 Dennis Lamp Zach Thompson 7.9 4.1 1.1 10.2% 19.9% .297 97 104 0.1 Laddie Renfroe C.J. Carter 8.4 5.1 1.0 12.7% 20.9% .294 96 104 0.1 George Grant Brian Moran 8.9 4.5 1.2 11.4% 22.3% .288 95 105 0.0 Hal Woodeshick Dylan Lee 7.9 4.6 1.1 11.3% 19.6% .291 95 106 0.0 Mike Cosgrove Ryan Cook 9.3 5.3 1.3 13.1% 23.0% .292 92 108 0.0 Milo Candini Zach Pop 7.9 3.8 1.5 9.6% 19.7% .293 88 114 -0.2 Rosman Garcia Adam Conley 7.8 3.4 1.4 8.6% 19.8% .296 90 112 -0.2 Tom Burgmeier Brad Boxberger 10.7 5.9 1.6 14.5% 26.3% .286 86 116 -0.2 Dennis Higgins Justin Shafer 8.3 4.9 1.4 12.2% 20.4% .288 85 118 -0.3 Jim Dickson Jorge Guzman 8.0 6.9 1.5 16.1% 18.8% .288 72 139 -0.5 John D’Acquisto Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April. ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.