2021 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves by Dan Szymborski November 23, 2020 After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. ZiPS Projections 2021 2020 ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG ALBALCHWHOUBOSCLELAANYYDETOAKTBRKCRSEATORMINTEX NLATLCHCARIMIACINCOLNYMMILLADPHIPITSDPWSNSTLSFG Batters How do you get to the playoffs easily with only one dependable starter? Pummeling the league into submission with your offense is a good place to start. The Dodgers led the National League in runs scored, but the Braves finished only a single run behind them. Marcell Ozuna’s one-year contract turned out to be one of the best moves of the winter. Unable to maintain the level of his 2017 breakout the last couple of years, he went out and topped even that season, hitting .338/.431/.636 and earning two-thirds of a Triple Crown by finishing third in batting average while leading the league in homers and RBIs. Sure, it wouldn’t have been quite the same in a 60-game season, though one could argue that batting average is harder to lead in over a short year due to being a volatile qualitative measure. Atlanta now faces the challenge of replacing Ozuna’s production. That won’t happen in full, but newly minted NL MVP Freddie Freeman returns, as does the Ronald Acuña Jr./Ozzie Albies tandem, a pair of young stars that can quite literally match up with any such coupling in MLB history. Freeman did as much to push his Hall of Fame case forward as you can in 60 games and passed the halfway mark to 3,000 hits; he’ll likely finish in the 2,500-hit range, something he’ll likely need with around 400 home runs as a first baseman. By the time he retires, ZiPS projects him to have the fourth-most WAR for a 21st-century first baseman with around 60, but that’s not slam-dunk territory. Acuña’s a superstar, and one has to remember that the top comp in his cohort is the young, dynamic Jose Canseco, not the plodding slugger the latter was late in his career. In a way, it feels almost fitting to have him comped to the first 40/40 hitter. Technically, Acuña has the talent to be the first 50/50 hitter someday, but there’s always that issue that the better a player hits, the more resistant managers become to letting them run the bases aggressively. Even Rickey Henderson’s attempts dropped over time! There are still some offensive holes for the Braves to fill. Maybe holes is too strong a word, though I’m not sure Cristian Pache is a starter at this point (Steamer is even more skeptical). But there are, at least, areas for concern. One is in left, where Adam Duvall is best suited as a reserve and occasional pleasant surprise when he goes on a power run rather than an underwhelming starter. If the Braves aren’t into spending a lot of money — and no team really appears to be all that into this — Joc Pederson would be a fun acquisition. Duvall doesn’t have big platoon splits, but Pederson certainly does! At the very least, it would be better than calling Nick Markakis yet again. Pitchers The fate of Mike Soroka is again a big separator between ZiPS and Steamer — ZiPS being generally bullish, Steamer generally bearish. One of the big X factors is how well Soroka can continue to suppress homers, something ZiPS is fairly confident about given the hit data against Soroka in his rookie season. But it’s not quite as confident as it was before 2020; missing a year due to injury, even a non-arm one, has a nasty way of introducting uncertainty into the mix. Due to Soroka’s missing season, Max Fried edges him out in the ZiPS projections, the computer seeing him as a solid No. 2 starter threatening to cross into ace territory. And Fried certainly was the team’s ace in 2020, putting up a 2.25 ERA in his 11 starts while the rest of the rotation combined for a bleak 6.44 ERA. That figure even includes Ian Anderson’s solid six starts towards the end of the year. ZiPS still thinks he could stand to shed a walk per game or so, and, like Fried, he isn’t projected to be anywhere near as effective at preventing round-trippers as 2020, but he does get a projection of a solid mid-rotation starter. The good news is that ZiPS does not project the “other guys” to pitch anywhere near as poorly as 2020, which should effectively counter any regression from Fried and/or Anderson. Soroka’s return is obviously a huge part of that, but ZiPS likes Bryse Wilson and at least thinks Kyle Wright and Touki Toussaint will be better than replacement. Drew Smyly was terrific in his brief time with the Giants, showing better velocity than ever, but given his long-term injury record, the projections are going to be conservative for the moment. Between the most recent graduations and trades, the pitching prospect cupboard is finally starting to look a little short-stocked, but at least Atlanta is closer to knowing what it has long-term as it contends for the next half-decade. One pedantic note for 2021: For the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth charts playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Batters – Standard Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS Ronald Acuña Jr. R 23 LF 672 570 134 161 30 2 43 115 91 171 33 7 Ozzie Albies B 24 2B 659 609 105 174 38 6 28 91 43 115 18 3 Freddie Freeman L 31 1B 625 533 98 158 39 2 28 111 82 112 6 3 Marcell Ozuna R 30 LF 598 537 82 154 27 2 34 126 58 131 5 1 Dansby Swanson R 27 SS 597 533 81 134 29 3 19 81 54 154 11 3 Travis d’Arnaud R 32 C 422 382 46 101 18 0 16 79 33 97 1 0 Adam Duvall R 32 LF 497 451 64 103 22 2 28 91 35 140 2 1 Braden Shewmake L 23 SS 498 458 55 115 26 6 7 51 32 87 16 6 Austin Riley R 24 3B 529 486 67 116 24 3 26 87 36 160 0 1 Johan Camargo B 27 3B 456 420 54 103 26 1 15 58 30 108 0 0 Ender Inciarte L 30 CF 497 448 63 114 18 4 8 46 39 77 16 7 Tyler Flowers R 35 C 297 259 28 55 11 1 8 30 27 104 0 0 Cristian Pache R 22 CF 506 471 52 112 27 8 13 59 30 132 5 9 Drew Waters B 22 LF 578 540 59 127 34 8 11 55 31 187 12 6 Adeiny Hechavarría R 32 SS 316 294 36 76 14 2 5 32 17 57 2 1 Justin Dean R 24 CF 440 395 46 82 13 8 6 34 38 134 23 11 Riley Unroe B 25 SS 480 430 47 94 16 3 8 43 42 136 9 6 Jack Mayfield R 30 2B 420 388 51 94 22 1 14 58 22 94 4 2 Alex Jackson R 25 C 355 324 39 64 14 1 16 49 19 140 1 0 Abraham Almonte B 32 CF 315 277 40 63 16 4 8 33 36 71 9 5 Scott Schebler L 30 CF 395 354 42 79 16 1 12 52 31 97 2 3 Matt Adams L 32 1B 315 292 34 63 12 0 15 63 20 101 0 0 Charlie Culberson R 32 LF 249 233 26 54 10 2 6 29 12 70 2 1 William Contreras R 23 C 401 376 37 85 19 1 9 37 21 105 0 0 Pablo Sandoval B 34 3B 282 258 27 61 12 0 9 40 19 60 0 0 Shane Robinson R 36 CF 320 292 35 70 10 2 3 23 21 40 7 2 Sal Giardina B 29 C 193 172 16 34 7 0 2 12 9 60 0 0 Jack López R 28 3B 428 403 43 91 13 1 10 43 15 117 10 4 Nick Markakis L 37 RF 428 390 45 100 27 2 5 46 32 70 0 1 Logan Brown L 24 C 306 291 23 60 10 1 2 19 12 80 0 1 CJ Alexander L 24 3B 226 202 21 39 6 3 3 16 22 68 3 2 Ryan Casteel R 30 1B 442 411 44 88 20 2 16 60 27 134 1 1 Sean Kazmar Jr. R 36 1B 362 340 33 77 14 1 6 32 15 54 2 1 Riley Delgado R 26 SS 541 508 44 119 17 2 1 29 23 60 1 1 Jefrey Ramos R 22 LF 457 432 42 92 16 4 11 46 19 120 1 1 Tyler Neslony L 27 RF 405 373 38 80 17 2 7 35 27 110 5 5 Greyson Jenista L 24 RF 475 430 45 86 17 4 11 46 39 163 3 8 Alejandro Salazar R 24 2B 446 425 32 88 14 3 2 25 12 125 7 7 Batters – Advanced Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp Ronald Acuña Jr. .282 .390 .568 147 .286 .331 8.7 4 6.5 Jose Canseco Ozzie Albies .286 .335 .506 117 .220 .313 6.6 5 4.7 Roberto Alomar Freddie Freeman .296 .395 .535 141 .238 .331 8.1 3 4.7 Todd Helton Marcell Ozuna .287 .356 .534 130 .248 .323 7.3 3 4.1 Gary Sheffield Dansby Swanson .251 .323 .424 94 .173 .319 5.0 3 2.5 Don Buddin Travis d’Arnaud .264 .325 .437 98 .173 .316 5.2 -2 1.7 Spud Davis Adam Duvall .228 .292 .472 96 .244 .265 4.8 6 1.6 Greg Vaughn Braden Shewmake .251 .305 .380 79 .129 .297 4.3 2 1.2 Rance Mulliniks Austin Riley .239 .297 .461 95 .222 .300 4.8 -3 1.2 Harlond Clift Johan Camargo .245 .299 .419 86 .174 .296 4.5 2 1.1 Scotti Madison Ender Inciarte .254 .316 .366 79 .112 .292 4.2 4 1.0 Eddie Milner Tyler Flowers .212 .310 .355 74 .143 .320 3.8 4 1.0 Tom Wilson Cristian Pache .238 .285 .412 80 .174 .304 3.9 6 0.9 Rob Ducey Drew Waters .235 .280 .389 73 .154 .339 3.8 12 0.6 Tim Raines Adeiny Hechavarría .259 .301 .371 75 .112 .306 4.1 0 0.4 Chris Clapinski Justin Dean .208 .286 .327 61 .119 .298 3.2 7 0.3 Tony Walker Riley Unroe .219 .291 .326 62 .107 .301 3.2 4 0.3 Doug Baker Jack Mayfield .242 .286 .412 81 .170 .286 4.2 -3 0.3 Kelly Heath Alex Jackson .198 .262 .395 69 .198 .286 3.5 -2 0.1 George Bjorkman Abraham Almonte .227 .317 .401 87 .173 .278 4.4 -7 0.1 Jeff DaVanon Scott Schebler .223 .296 .376 75 .153 .273 3.8 -2 0.0 Ryan McGuire Matt Adams .216 .270 .411 75 .195 .273 3.8 3 -0.1 John Milner Charlie Culberson .232 .274 .369 67 .137 .306 3.6 3 -0.2 Junior Spivey William Contreras .226 .272 .354 63 .128 .290 3.4 -2 -0.2 Bob Henley Pablo Sandoval .236 .291 .388 76 .151 .275 4.0 -4 -0.2 Geoff Blum Shane Robinson .240 .292 .318 61 .079 .269 3.4 0 -0.2 So Taguchi Sal Giardina .198 .271 .273 44 .076 .291 2.5 -1 -0.5 Steve Holm Jack López .226 .259 .337 55 .112 .293 3.1 3 -0.5 Rick Morris Nick Markakis .256 .313 .374 80 .118 .302 4.2 -5 -0.6 Paul Waner Logan Brown .206 .245 .268 35 .062 .278 2.2 6 -0.6 Scott Hatteberg CJ Alexander .193 .274 .297 51 .104 .275 2.7 -1 -0.7 Pat Osborn Ryan Casteel .214 .262 .389 68 .175 .276 3.5 1 -0.8 Carmelo Martinez Sean Kazmar Jr. .226 .265 .326 55 .100 .254 3.0 4 -0.9 Todd Zeile Riley Delgado .234 .275 .281 47 .047 .264 2.7 1 -1.1 Mike Bordick Jefrey Ramos .213 .249 .345 54 .132 .269 2.9 4 -1.2 Bob Juday Tyler Neslony .214 .272 .327 57 .113 .285 2.9 0 -1.3 Ryan McGuire Greyson Jenista .200 .265 .335 56 .135 .293 2.7 3 -1.3 Andy Abad Alejandro Salazar .207 .231 .268 31 .061 .289 1.9 4 -2.0 Albenis Machado Pitchers – Standard Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP Max Fried L 27 12 8 4.03 29 26 145.0 140 65 16 53 146 3.84 Mike Soroka R 23 8 5 3.81 21 21 120.3 119 51 14 30 95 3.99 Ian Anderson R 23 9 6 4.15 24 24 121.3 104 56 16 63 144 4.23 Cole Hamels L 37 6 5 4.46 19 19 105.0 102 52 16 39 97 4.66 Bryse Wilson R 23 9 6 4.50 25 21 120.0 120 60 20 34 116 4.39 Mike Foltynewicz R 29 9 7 4.77 24 24 126.3 124 67 21 47 118 4.71 Kyle Wright R 25 10 8 4.75 28 25 125.0 124 66 18 54 121 4.56 Touki Toussaint R 25 8 6 4.66 31 18 110.0 101 57 15 62 125 4.62 Sean Newcomb L 28 7 6 4.59 32 17 100.0 94 51 15 44 97 4.57 Jeremy Walker R 26 9 7 4.71 33 15 116.7 126 61 16 37 91 4.51 Nolan Kingham R 24 9 8 5.06 26 26 151.3 171 85 24 44 93 5.04 Drew Smyly L 32 4 3 4.70 21 18 97.7 96 51 18 36 104 4.61 Jhoulys Chacín R 33 8 7 4.96 23 22 110.7 112 61 18 45 94 5.01 Hayden Deal L 26 7 6 4.75 25 15 96.7 104 51 12 41 71 4.78 Will Smith L 31 4 2 3.40 53 0 50.3 39 19 8 17 72 3.40 Tucker Davidson L 25 7 6 4.84 21 21 93.0 91 50 10 56 85 4.72 A.J. Minter L 27 6 3 3.51 58 1 56.3 48 22 6 23 71 3.38 Jasseel De La Cruz R 24 9 8 5.04 25 23 116.0 118 65 16 60 95 5.04 Chris Martin R 35 3 1 3.30 46 0 43.7 40 16 5 7 46 3.18 Kyle Muller L 23 7 6 5.12 23 23 103.7 98 59 13 73 103 5.11 Shane Greene R 32 3 2 3.79 63 0 59.3 53 25 8 20 60 4.07 Huascar Ynoa R 23 6 5 5.03 27 17 96.7 96 54 15 51 94 5.02 Mark Melancon R 36 4 2 3.81 51 0 49.7 51 21 6 13 43 3.92 Corbin Clouse L 26 4 2 3.93 37 2 50.3 43 22 5 28 58 3.95 Luke Jackson R 29 5 3 4.00 59 0 72.0 67 32 8 32 83 3.82 Philip Pfeifer L 28 6 6 5.13 29 14 101.7 100 58 18 54 103 5.23 Darren O’Day R 38 2 1 3.73 37 0 31.3 26 13 4 11 37 3.82 Robbie Erlin L 30 2 2 4.96 37 7 78.0 87 43 14 15 66 4.47 Tyler Matzek L 30 3 2 4.11 31 0 35.0 27 16 4 26 49 4.35 Emmanuel Ramirez R 26 7 7 5.52 25 18 109.3 122 67 19 50 90 5.33 Brooks Wilson R 25 3 3 5.19 20 7 59.0 65 34 9 25 42 5.16 Josh Tomlin R 36 4 3 5.22 32 10 79.3 90 46 18 10 63 5.00 Tommy Milone L 34 6 6 5.53 23 15 107.3 125 66 24 23 91 5.15 Claudio Custodio R 30 4 4 5.00 31 4 63.0 67 35 9 25 46 4.91 Chad Sobotka R 27 3 2 4.41 43 0 49.0 42 24 5 29 58 4.10 Grant Dayton L 33 2 2 4.40 36 0 43.0 39 21 8 15 53 4.32 Felix Hernandez R 35 6 6 5.66 19 19 90.7 100 57 18 32 70 5.51 Thomas Burrows L 26 4 3 4.67 46 0 61.7 56 32 9 37 67 4.90 Patrick Weigel R 26 3 3 5.56 20 14 56.7 59 35 10 34 50 5.67 Brandon White R 26 4 3 4.67 37 0 54.0 51 28 6 34 51 4.79 Ben Rowen R 32 3 3 5.19 38 5 69.3 78 40 14 14 51 5.11 Jacob Webb R 27 3 3 4.89 49 1 49.7 46 27 8 30 52 5.11 Jason Creasy R 29 2 2 5.13 33 0 40.3 42 23 7 16 37 4.94 Bradley Roney R 28 0 0 5.26 30 0 39.3 33 23 6 30 50 5.06 Connor Johnstone R 26 4 4 5.66 33 8 82.7 97 52 15 30 51 5.58 Pitchers – Advanced Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp Max Fried 9.1 3.3 1.0 8.5% 23.4% .308 112 89 2.6 Andy Pettitte Mike Soroka 7.1 2.2 1.0 5.9% 18.8% .290 119 84 2.4 Dave Rozema Ian Anderson 10.7 4.7 1.2 11.9% 27.2% .292 109 92 2.0 Charlie Lea Cole Hamels 8.3 3.3 1.4 8.5% 21.2% .290 101 99 1.4 Tom Glavine Bryse Wilson 8.7 2.6 1.5 6.7% 22.7% .298 100 100 1.3 Marty Janzen 젠슨 Mike Foltynewicz 8.4 3.3 1.5 8.6% 21.6% .290 95 106 1.3 Ed Wojna Kyle Wright 8.7 3.9 1.3 9.8% 22.0% .302 95 105 1.3 Steve Arlin Touki Toussaint 10.2 5.1 1.2 12.5% 25.3% .303 97 103 1.1 Bob Brown Sean Newcomb 8.7 4.0 1.4 10.2% 22.4% .287 99 102 1.1 Luke Walker Jeremy Walker 7.0 2.9 1.2 7.3% 17.8% .306 96 104 1.1 Benny Frey Nolan Kingham 5.5 2.6 1.4 6.6% 14.0% .296 89 112 1.1 Rick Wise Drew Smyly 9.6 3.3 1.7 8.6% 24.7% .299 96 104 1.0 Kent Mercker Jhoulys Chacín 7.6 3.7 1.5 9.2% 19.3% .290 91 110 1.0 Spec Shea Hayden Deal 6.6 3.8 1.1 9.4% 16.4% .303 95 105 1.0 Andy Hassler Will Smith 12.9 3.0 1.4 8.3% 35.3% .290 133 75 0.9 Arthur Rhodes Tucker Davidson 8.2 5.4 1.0 13.2% 20.0% .302 93 107 0.9 Jerry Reuss A.J. Minter 11.3 3.7 1.0 9.6% 29.7% .307 129 78 0.9 Shane Rawley Jasseel De La Cruz 7.4 4.7 1.2 11.5% 18.2% .295 90 112 0.8 Mike Torrez Chris Martin 9.5 1.4 1.0 4.0% 26.0% .299 137 73 0.7 Paul Quantrill Kyle Muller 8.9 6.3 1.1 15.2% 21.4% .297 88 113 0.7 Trevor Wilson Shane Greene 9.1 3.0 1.2 8.0% 24.0% .283 119 84 0.7 Jeff Tam Huascar Ynoa 8.8 4.7 1.4 11.7% 21.6% .300 90 111 0.6 Tim Byron Mark Melancon 7.8 2.4 1.1 6.2% 20.4% .306 119 84 0.6 Paul Quantrill Corbin Clouse 10.4 5.0 0.9 12.7% 26.2% .297 115 87 0.6 Marcelino Lopez Luke Jackson 10.4 4.0 1.0 10.2% 26.4% .316 113 88 0.6 Sean Green Philip Pfeifer 9.1 4.8 1.6 11.8% 22.5% .296 88 114 0.5 Eddie Oropesa Darren O’Day 10.6 3.2 1.1 8.3% 28.0% .286 121 83 0.4 Russ Springer Robbie Erlin 7.6 1.7 1.6 4.5% 19.9% .311 91 110 0.3 Chris Key Tyler Matzek 12.6 6.7 1.0 16.4% 30.8% .299 110 91 0.3 Tippy Martinez Emmanuel Ramirez 7.4 4.1 1.6 10.0% 18.1% .309 82 122 0.2 Sean White Brooks Wilson 6.4 3.8 1.4 9.4% 15.8% .301 87 115 0.2 Orval Grove Josh Tomlin 7.1 1.1 2.0 3.0% 18.9% .299 87 115 0.2 Gerry Staley Tommy Milone 7.6 1.9 2.0 4.9% 19.5% .312 82 122 0.2 Terry Mulholland Claudio Custodio 6.6 3.6 1.3 9.0% 16.5% .296 90 111 0.2 Jim Todd Chad Sobotka 10.7 5.3 0.9 13.3% 26.6% .301 103 97 0.2 Clay Bryant Grant Dayton 11.1 3.1 1.7 8.2% 29.1% .298 103 97 0.2 Mike Magnante Felix Hernandez 6.9 3.2 1.8 7.9% 17.3% .296 80 125 0.1 Pat Ahearne Thomas Burrows 9.8 5.4 1.3 13.3% 24.1% .292 97 103 0.1 Marcelino Lopez Patrick Weigel 7.9 5.4 1.6 13.0% 19.1% .297 81 123 0.1 Rube Fischer Brandon White 8.5 5.7 1.0 13.8% 20.7% .296 97 103 0.1 Hal Reniff Ben Rowen 6.6 1.8 1.8 4.7% 17.1% .296 87 115 0.1 Jose Bautista Jacob Webb 9.4 5.4 1.4 13.4% 23.2% .288 92 108 0.0 Bill Kelso Jason Creasy 8.3 3.6 1.6 9.0% 20.8% .302 88 113 -0.1 Steve Comer Bradley Roney 11.4 6.9 1.4 16.6% 27.6% .290 86 116 -0.2 Franklyn German Connor Johnstone 5.6 3.3 1.6 8.0% 13.7% .301 80 125 -0.2 Reid Santos Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally. Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April. ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.