2022 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

ZiPS doesn’t usually catch me completely by surprise, but the Tigers’ 2022 offensive projections are, as a group, a solid step or two ahead of what I expected. In fact, the difference is enough to make me think a bit more positively about exactly where the Tigers are in the American League Central. Detroit didn’t hit all that well in 2021, but they were a galaxy ahead of a ’19 season when they literally scored about 200 fewer runs than the average offense. Last season, they almost clawed their way to the middle of the pack, and that was without really getting all that much good fortune. Sure, they got a very good year out of Jeimer Candelario and Akil Baddoo seemingly came out of nowhere, but nobody really hit a level of performance that looks like it will be a challenge to repeat.

And there’s more on the way.

Over the last decade, the Tigers have done a rather poor job developing offensive talent, highlighted by a terrible record in the draft. Nick Castellanos is the most recent Tigers draftee to become a staple in the lineup for a significant period of time, and he was drafted back in 2010 before being flipped to the Cubs in 2019. Since then, it’s been a parade of future saviors who have largely struggled to even master minor league pitching, from Steven Moya to Derek Hill to Christin Stewart, among others.

Unlike past mirages, there’s good reason to be more optimistic about Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. They both terrorized minor league pitching and are more complete hitters than the names above. Over full seasons, ZiPS basically sees both of them as three-win players, and if you read the article covering Seattle’s ZiPS projections, there’s a handy, dandy chart showing how rare that is. While I expect the usual service time games to be played, Detroit’s going to be hard-pressed to keep them both down in the minors for very long, especially Torkelson.

Moving Jonathan Schoop back to the keystone is as good as signing a second baseman. Yes, Schoop played 156 games for the Tigers in 2021, mostly at first base, but playing him there nullifies a lot of the justification for having him on your roster in the first place. At first, Schoop’s offense, which is fairly potent at second, is quite run-of-the-mill. Playing the pivot in 2020, Schoop’s 1.4 WAR in 44 games nearly matched his entire output in ’21.

And we cannot forget the addition of Javier Báez. I think we’re at the point with Báez where worrying about his occasionally abysmal contact has become counter-productive. He’ll turn 30 by the end of 2022, and he’s far from the days of being a prospect. He is what he is at this point, and it’s more useful to focus on the things that he does well. He handles multiple positions with alpomb, and when he does connect, he has a very high batting average and a healthy surplus of power. The Tigers should shrug whenever someone frets that Báez isn’t Joey Votto, and just be happy to have a shortstop who lets them say “haha scoreboard go brrrrrrrr.”

One tough decision that lies ahead is the Miguel Cabrera Problem. There are still two years remaining on Cabrera’s contract — I’m assuming the options aren’t getting picked up — and wins in these seasons increasingly look like they could be meaningful. That’s a problem for the Tigers, and they risk falling into the same trap the Angels did: playing their future Hall of Famer well past the point his performance justifies simply because he’s expensive and was great seven or eight years ago. The White Sox are likely the better team in 2022, but Detroit catching them in a good year is no longer implausible. That becomes a lot harder if they start themselves a couple of games back in the standings because of nostalgia.

Pitchers

With the offense looking closer to playoff quality than it has in years, the loss of Spencer Turnbull to Tommy John surgery is even harder to take. Turnbull required surgery in July after a few setbacks, meaning that he’s likely to miss all of 2022, with a brief cameo the best-case scenario. ZiPS absolutely loves Eduardo Rodriguez, and sees him as the equal of Kevin Gausman or Robbie Ray, both of whom signed for a lot more cash. Yes, there’s a 4.74 ERA on his baseball card, but his peripherals were immaculate, and those are the numbers you’ll do better betting on over the long haul. A .363 BABIP is never sustainable — even hitters being dragooned into pitching have historically had a much more promising BABIP than that.

As for the rest of the rotation, continued progress is likely. We’ve reached the point where Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal should be reasonably expected to be league-average pitchers. Matt Manning, meanwhile, is at least a respectable fourth/fifth starter with upside. Detroit would still benefit from picking up an additional starting pitcher.

While ZiPS generally likes the rest of the Tigers, we come now to the bullpen. Think of the characters you’ve disliked the most in TV and movies. For ZiPS, the Tiger bullpen is like a horrible mashup of Andy Bernard, Neelix, Councilman Jam, Ted Mosby, and Scrappy-Doo all smashed together into a Katamari ball, destroying every bit of joy in the universe like the slime from the second Ghostbusters movie. ZiPS doesn’t project a single member of the bullpen to be clearly better than ordinary, and unless I’ve somehow programmed an algorithm with a ridiculously specific, targeted hatred, the Tigers would be wise to make some additions here, especially if quick contention is the plan.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.