2022 ZiPS Projections: Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

ZiPS doesn’t usually catch me completely by surprise, but the Tigers’ 2022 offensive projections are, as a group, a solid step or two ahead of what I expected. In fact, the difference is enough to make me think a bit more positively about exactly where the Tigers are in the American League Central. Detroit didn’t hit all that well in 2021, but they were a galaxy ahead of a ’19 season when they literally scored about 200 fewer runs than the average offense. Last season, they almost clawed their way to the middle of the pack, and that was without really getting all that much good fortune. Sure, they got a very good year out of Jeimer Candelario and Akil Baddoo seemingly came out of nowhere, but nobody really hit a level of performance that looks like it will be a challenge to repeat.

And there’s more on the way.

Over the last decade, the Tigers have done a rather poor job developing offensive talent, highlighted by a terrible record in the draft. Nick Castellanos is the most recent Tigers draftee to become a staple in the lineup for a significant period of time, and he was drafted back in 2010 before being flipped to the Cubs in 2019. Since then, it’s been a parade of future saviors who have largely struggled to even master minor league pitching, from Steven Moya to Derek Hill to Christin Stewart, among others.

Unlike past mirages, there’s good reason to be more optimistic about Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. They both terrorized minor league pitching and are more complete hitters than the names above. Over full seasons, ZiPS basically sees both of them as three-win players, and if you read the article covering Seattle’s ZiPS projections, there’s a handy, dandy chart showing how rare that is. While I expect the usual service time games to be played, Detroit’s going to be hard-pressed to keep them both down in the minors for very long, especially Torkelson.

Moving Jonathan Schoop back to the keystone is as good as signing a second baseman. Yes, Schoop played 156 games for the Tigers in 2021, mostly at first base, but playing him there nullifies a lot of the justification for having him on your roster in the first place. At first, Schoop’s offense, which is fairly potent at second, is quite run-of-the-mill. Playing the pivot in 2020, Schoop’s 1.4 WAR in 44 games nearly matched his entire output in ’21.

And we cannot forget the addition of Javier Báez. I think we’re at the point with Báez where worrying about his occasionally abysmal contact has become counter-productive. He’ll turn 30 by the end of 2022, and he’s far from the days of being a prospect. He is what he is at this point, and it’s more useful to focus on the things that he does well. He handles multiple positions with alpomb, and when he does connect, he has a very high batting average and a healthy surplus of power. The Tigers should shrug whenever someone frets that Báez isn’t Joey Votto, and just be happy to have a shortstop who lets them say “haha scoreboard go brrrrrrrr.”

One tough decision that lies ahead is the Miguel Cabrera Problem. There are still two years remaining on Cabrera’s contract — I’m assuming the options aren’t getting picked up — and wins in these seasons increasingly look like they could be meaningful. That’s a problem for the Tigers, and they risk falling into the same trap the Angels did: playing their future Hall of Famer well past the point his performance justifies simply because he’s expensive and was great seven or eight years ago. The White Sox are likely the better team in 2022, but Detroit catching them in a good year is no longer implausible. That becomes a lot harder if they start themselves a couple of games back in the standings because of nostalgia.

Pitchers

With the offense looking closer to playoff quality than it has in years, the loss of Spencer Turnbull to Tommy John surgery is even harder to take. Turnbull required surgery in July after a few setbacks, meaning that he’s likely to miss all of 2022, with a brief cameo the best-case scenario. ZiPS absolutely loves Eduardo Rodriguez, and sees him as the equal of Kevin Gausman or Robbie Ray, both of whom signed for a lot more cash. Yes, there’s a 4.74 ERA on his baseball card, but his peripherals were immaculate, and those are the numbers you’ll do better betting on over the long haul. A .363 BABIP is never sustainable — even hitters being dragooned into pitching have historically had a much more promising BABIP than that.

As for the rest of the rotation, continued progress is likely. We’ve reached the point where Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal should be reasonably expected to be league-average pitchers. Matt Manning, meanwhile, is at least a respectable fourth/fifth starter with upside. Detroit would still benefit from picking up an additional starting pitcher.

While ZiPS generally likes the rest of the Tigers, we come now to the bullpen. Think of the characters you’ve disliked the most in TV and movies. For ZiPS, the Tiger bullpen is like a horrible mashup of Andy Bernard, Neelix, Councilman Jam, Ted Mosby, and Scrappy-Doo all smashed together into a Katamari ball, destroying every bit of joy in the universe like the slime from the second Ghostbusters movie. ZiPS doesn’t project a single member of the bullpen to be clearly better than ordinary, and unless I’ve somehow programmed an algorithm with a ridiculously specific, targeted hatred, the Tigers would be wise to make some additions here, especially if quick contention is the plan.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Jeimer Candelario B 28 3B 604 537 72 136 33 4 18 64 60 136 1 1
Javier Báez R 29 SS 573 536 79 140 27 3 26 80 26 165 17 6
Riley Greene L 21 CF 572 514 79 138 22 5 23 71 47 158 12 1
Spencer Torkelson R 22 1B 541 462 72 115 25 1 28 77 55 117 4 2
Akil Baddoo L 23 CF 495 443 67 117 22 8 15 60 49 124 20 4
Isaac Paredes R 23 3B 471 409 61 105 16 3 14 47 50 69 1 1
Robbie Grossman B 32 LF 571 485 71 118 23 3 17 56 75 127 14 4
Jonathan Schoop R 30 2B 610 569 77 151 27 2 22 74 28 121 2 0
Ryan Kreidler R 24 SS 516 466 53 109 19 1 15 44 37 143 11 4
Victor Reyes B 27 RF 478 451 62 127 24 6 10 44 21 101 14 4
Jake Rogers R 27 C 324 286 37 58 11 2 13 37 28 110 2 0
Niko Goodrum B 30 SS 417 374 48 85 19 3 11 41 37 125 14 4
Zack Short R 27 SS 369 314 46 64 13 1 13 40 45 107 4 1
Dillon Dingler R 23 C 382 351 47 80 9 2 14 43 16 101 1 0
Tucker Barnhart L 31 C 380 340 33 78 16 1 6 35 33 87 0 1
Willi Castro B 25 2B 551 507 65 128 23 7 12 51 27 128 12 4
Eric Haase R 29 C 410 376 49 82 14 1 16 57 28 135 2 0
Andre Lipcius R 24 3B 462 419 56 94 19 2 9 42 34 97 5 2
Kody Clemens L 26 2B 459 417 49 95 18 4 15 53 30 114 4 2
Andrew Navigato R 24 SS 368 333 41 71 12 1 8 31 25 91 7 4
Daz Cameron R 25 CF 426 383 48 86 18 4 11 40 33 120 14 5
Christin Stewart L 28 RF 439 393 46 92 19 3 19 57 37 116 1 1
Aderlin Rodríguez R 30 1B 459 427 59 112 22 1 16 70 24 106 1 1
Eliezer Alfonzo B 22 C 409 389 59 99 16 0 9 45 15 39 2 1
Yariel Gonzalez B 28 3B 412 380 46 93 13 0 12 42 25 86 2 2
John Valente R 27 2B 284 267 28 69 9 2 3 18 13 34 7 3
Daniel Pinero R 28 2B 406 365 42 78 19 2 9 38 32 106 3 4
Nomar Mazara L 27 RF 378 347 41 87 17 1 11 46 25 92 1 1
Dustin Garneau R 34 C 188 167 21 33 8 0 8 23 14 52 0 0
Josh Lester L 27 1B 470 432 47 94 19 2 21 58 31 135 2 1
Dane Myers R 26 3B 183 167 23 41 7 1 4 15 9 49 2 1
Gage Workman B 22 SS 536 501 50 104 27 2 13 49 29 165 16 4
Harold Castro L 28 SS 422 397 40 109 14 2 5 40 15 90 3 3
Jacob Robson L 27 LF 422 374 51 88 17 3 8 35 43 137 15 2
Jake Holton R 24 1B 317 283 40 64 12 1 7 30 23 70 1 1
Drew Ward L 27 1B 334 300 39 63 11 1 13 39 27 121 1 1
Juan Centeno L 32 C 245 227 27 55 10 0 2 19 14 36 1 0
Derek Hill R 26 CF 410 379 45 89 11 4 8 33 24 127 14 8
Miguel Cabrera R 39 1B 473 428 42 106 12 0 14 63 34 106 0 0
Grayson Greiner R 29 C 246 222 23 44 8 0 5 21 20 80 0 0
Jon Rosoff L 27 C 180 163 13 32 5 0 0 6 14 40 3 1
Kerry Carpenter L 24 LF 442 404 57 98 20 1 12 50 23 88 5 3
Bryant Packard L 24 LF 381 348 39 73 16 0 10 33 25 110 6 2
Christopher Proctor L 25 C 215 201 16 35 6 0 1 10 11 68 2 0
Wenceel Perez B 22 2B 511 480 58 110 16 3 6 35 25 96 13 4
Brady Policelli R 27 C 386 357 39 71 15 2 9 34 24 105 10 4
Reynaldo Rivera L 25 1B 370 340 34 61 11 1 17 46 20 152 1 0
Eric De La Rosa R 25 CF 383 352 37 72 14 2 6 27 20 126 15 5
Daniel Cabrera L 23 RF 508 477 56 101 17 3 15 54 22 120 5 2
Dylan Rosa R 26 RF 315 295 29 58 11 1 9 29 15 108 3 2

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Jeimer Candelario .253 .334 .430 108 .177 .308 5.2 3 3.2 Travis Fryman
Javier Báez .261 .304 .468 107 .207 .330 5.3 2 3.1 Dave Concepcion
Riley Greene .268 .335 .465 117 .196 .345 6.0 -5 2.9 Lloyd Moseby
Spencer Torkelson .249 .334 .489 122 .240 .274 5.9 4 2.8 Alvin Davis
Akil Baddoo .264 .335 .451 113 .187 .336 5.9 -5 2.3 Junior Felix
Isaac Paredes .257 .340 .413 106 .156 .279 5.1 2 2.2 Bobby Holley
Robbie Grossman .243 .349 .408 107 .165 .296 5.2 0 2.1 Gary Matthews
Jonathan Schoop .265 .307 .436 101 .170 .303 4.9 -3 2.0 Other Frank Thomas
Ryan Kreidler .234 .295 .376 83 .142 .305 4.0 4 1.5 Jeff Moronko
Victor Reyes .282 .314 .428 101 .146 .344 5.2 3 1.5 Dave Martinez
Jake Rogers .203 .281 .392 82 .189 .276 3.8 5 1.2 Bob Melvin
Niko Goodrum .227 .300 .382 86 .155 .311 4.2 1 1.2 Lou Collier
Zack Short .204 .310 .376 87 .172 .263 4.0 0 1.1 Matt Macri
Dillon Dingler .228 .277 .385 79 .157 .280 3.8 3 1.0 Joe Girardi
Tucker Barnhart .229 .303 .335 76 .106 .291 3.5 4 0.9 Ed Ott
Willi Castro .252 .300 .396 89 .144 .316 4.4 -3 0.9 Carlos Garcia
Eric Haase .218 .276 .388 79 .170 .293 3.8 1 0.9 Bob Geren
Andre Lipcius .224 .282 .344 71 .119 .272 3.4 8 0.7 Adam Fox
Kody Clemens .228 .281 .398 84 .170 .278 3.9 0 0.7 Doug Saunders
Andrew Navigato .213 .276 .327 65 .114 .269 3.1 7 0.6 Scott Leius
Daz Cameron .225 .299 .379 84 .154 .298 4.0 -2 0.6 Mark Little
Christin Stewart .234 .308 .443 103 .209 .283 4.8 -4 0.6 John-Ford Griffin
Aderlin Rodríguez .262 .309 .431 100 .169 .315 4.9 -3 0.6 Xavier Nady
Eliezer Alfonzo .254 .283 .365 76 .111 .264 3.7 -1 0.5 A.J. Pierzynski
Yariel Gonzalez .245 .291 .374 81 .129 .287 3.8 1 0.4 Chris Brown
John Valente .258 .297 .341 75 .082 .287 3.7 3 0.4 Onix Concepcion
Daniel Pinero .214 .284 .351 73 .137 .276 3.3 3 0.4 Jorge Velandia
Nomar Mazara .251 .304 .401 91 .150 .311 4.4 -1 0.3 Ruben Mateo
Dustin Garneau .198 .273 .389 79 .192 .234 3.6 -1 0.3 Jim Hegan
Josh Lester .218 .271 .417 85 .199 .264 3.9 2 0.1 Anthony Lewis
Dane Myers .246 .293 .371 81 .126 .325 3.9 -1 0.1 Hubie Brooks
Gage Workman .208 .253 .347 63 .140 .282 3.2 3 0.1 Matthew Brown
Harold Castro .275 .299 .358 80 .083 .344 3.9 -5 0.1 Scott Livingstone
Jacob Robson .235 .318 .361 86 .126 .349 4.1 -3 0.0 Cesar Geronimo
Jake Holton .226 .301 .350 78 .124 .277 3.6 2 0.0 Bryan Peck
Drew Ward .210 .280 .383 80 .173 .301 3.6 2 0.0 Paul Hollins
Juan Centeno .242 .291 .313 66 .070 .280 3.3 -2 0.0 Hector Ortiz
Derek Hill .235 .287 .348 73 .113 .332 3.5 -2 -0.2 Chris Roberson
Miguel Cabrera .248 .304 .374 85 .126 .299 4.1 -3 -0.3 Walt Dropo
Grayson Greiner .198 .269 .302 57 .104 .285 2.7 -2 -0.4 Joe Hietpas
Jon Rosoff .196 .263 .227 37 .031 .260 2.1 1 -0.4 Dave Ullery
Kerry Carpenter .243 .290 .386 83 .144 .283 4.0 -7 -0.8 Cameron Drew
Bryant Packard .210 .271 .342 67 .132 .276 3.2 -2 -0.9 Jamie Ogden
Christopher Proctor .174 .215 .219 20 .045 .258 1.6 3 -0.9 Jerrey Thurston
Wenceel Perez .229 .269 .313 59 .083 .275 3.1 -3 -0.9 Angel Chavez
Brady Policelli .199 .255 .328 58 .129 .255 2.9 -9 -1.1 Luis Rodriguez
Reynaldo Rivera .179 .232 .368 61 .188 .257 2.8 -2 -1.3 Nate Holdren
Eric De La Rosa .205 .264 .307 57 .102 .300 2.9 -8 -1.4 Luis Terrero
Daniel Cabrera .212 .246 .354 62 .143 .251 3.0 -1 -1.5 Alex Ahumada
Dylan Rosa .197 .244 .332 56 .136 .275 2.7 -5 -1.6 Kris Harvey

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Eduardo Rodriguez L 29 12 9 3.47 30 29 160.7 148 62 17 49 172 3.40
Casey Mize R 25 8 8 4.20 30 30 148.0 142 69 20 44 121 4.38
Tarik Skubal L 25 10 10 4.25 31 29 148.3 139 70 25 49 160 4.35
Matthew Boyd L 31 9 10 4.39 27 27 149.7 143 73 25 43 163 4.22
Spencer Turnbull R 29 7 6 4.03 18 18 98.3 92 44 11 37 96 4.09
Matt Manning R 24 7 8 4.59 26 26 121.7 129 62 17 42 94 4.61
Michael Fulmer R 29 5 5 4.28 39 10 75.7 75 36 11 26 73 4.33
Garrett Hill R 26 4 5 4.66 19 19 83.0 84 43 10 39 71 4.63
Beau Brieske R 24 6 7 4.75 21 20 94.7 100 50 15 29 74 4.75
Paul Richan R 25 4 5 4.56 15 15 71.0 77 36 9 19 50 4.39
Julio Teheran R 31 6 8 5.01 25 25 124.0 115 69 23 61 108 5.54
Mark Leiter Jr. R 31 7 8 4.79 24 15 92.0 95 49 15 31 83 4.64
Tyler Alexander L 27 6 7 4.86 28 16 107.3 121 58 20 24 83 4.87
Alex Faedo R 26 5 6 4.92 18 18 86.0 92 47 18 23 78 5.06
Wily Peralta R 33 4 5 4.90 26 17 86.3 88 47 12 41 64 5.07
Drew Hutchison R 31 6 8 5.06 25 19 101.3 108 57 16 43 79 5.06
Reese Olson R 22 6 8 5.13 22 21 98.3 103 56 12 52 73 5.05
Gregory Soto L 27 4 4 4.21 65 0 62.0 51 29 7 38 76 4.13
Ricardo Pinto 핀토 R 28 7 10 5.20 24 17 109.0 120 63 16 45 76 5.10
José Cisnero R 33 4 4 4.27 62 0 59.0 53 28 7 31 61 4.43
Alex Lange R 26 5 6 4.83 44 8 76.3 75 41 9 42 72 4.67
Jose Urena R 30 4 6 5.16 33 15 90.7 98 52 15 36 66 5.20
Derek Holland L 35 3 4 4.94 36 8 74.7 75 41 13 32 76 4.81
Zac Houston R 27 2 3 4.42 29 1 36.7 33 18 5 20 39 4.63
Angel De Jesus R 25 4 4 4.57 45 2 63.0 60 32 7 35 61 4.50
Ian Krol L 31 1 1 4.47 39 1 44.3 43 22 6 20 41 4.58
Jacob Barnes R 32 2 2 4.36 44 0 43.3 42 21 6 18 44 4.33
Nivaldo Rodriguez R 25 3 5 5.28 27 12 76.7 82 45 13 35 54 5.58
Franklin Pérez R 24 1 1 5.56 6 5 22.7 25 14 3 13 16 5.34
Will Vest R 27 3 3 4.60 51 0 58.7 61 30 7 24 47 4.51
Joe Jimenez R 27 4 4 4.62 58 0 50.7 44 26 8 26 62 4.68
Ethan DeCaster R 27 1 2 4.83 28 1 41.0 43 22 6 15 32 4.77
Buck Farmer R 31 3 3 4.65 61 0 60.0 59 31 9 28 56 4.86
Erasmo Ramirez R 32 3 4 5.40 23 10 66.7 73 40 12 21 46 5.22
Kyle Funkhouser R 28 5 7 5.15 45 8 73.3 72 42 11 44 70 5.14
Drew Carlton R 26 3 3 4.82 40 1 56.0 60 30 9 17 42 4.84
Brad Bass R 26 3 4 5.29 27 7 66.3 73 39 10 29 49 5.15
Joe Navilhon R 28 3 4 4.83 38 1 59.7 63 32 10 21 50 4.89
Nolan Blackwood R 27 3 4 4.87 40 1 61.0 66 33 8 25 43 4.85
Billy Lescher R 26 1 2 5.13 30 1 40.3 43 23 7 16 34 5.16
Logan Shore R 27 4 6 5.70 19 17 77.3 88 49 14 31 52 5.55
Miguel Del Pozo L 29 2 3 4.96 43 0 45.3 45 25 7 22 46 4.75
Wladimir Pinto R 24 3 4 5.23 39 3 53.3 53 31 8 32 51 5.19
Chavez Fernander R 24 2 2 5.37 32 4 53.7 58 32 8 27 37 5.42
Jason Foley R 26 1 2 5.08 43 0 44.3 47 25 6 22 34 5.16
Chance Kirby R 26 4 7 5.76 18 14 75.0 88 48 14 28 45 5.73
Ruben Garcia R 25 2 2 5.06 37 0 53.3 53 30 7 32 46 5.13
Rony García R 24 2 3 6.00 17 8 48.0 53 32 11 21 41 5.89
Joey Wentz L 24 3 5 5.86 20 20 78.3 85 51 15 44 64 5.87
Cale Coshow R 29 2 3 5.28 31 0 44.3 47 26 7 22 38 5.21
Pedro Payano R 27 6 9 5.76 24 23 109.3 120 70 18 59 81 5.62
Elvin Rodriguez R 24 4 7 5.89 21 20 84.0 95 55 16 37 61 5.70
Henry Martinez R 28 3 5 5.23 41 0 53.3 57 31 9 25 42 5.37
Jesus Rodriguez R 24 4 7 5.83 24 20 100.3 120 65 19 38 58 5.80
Yaya Chentouf R 25 5 6 5.20 39 0 62.3 70 36 8 27 40 5.06
Zack Hess R 25 3 4 5.48 43 0 47.7 49 29 7 32 41 5.57
Bryan Garcia R 27 2 4 5.61 58 0 61.0 67 38 11 31 46 5.64

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Eduardo Rodriguez 9.6 2.7 1.0 7.3% 25.6% .305 123 82 3.3 John Candelaria
Casey Mize 7.4 2.7 1.2 7.0% 19.3% .281 101 99 1.9 Denny McLain
Tarik Skubal 9.7 3.0 1.5 7.8% 25.4% .293 100 100 1.8 Jeff Francis
Matt Boyd 9.8 2.6 1.5 6.8% 25.7% .299 97 103 1.6 Floyd Bannister
Spencer Turnbull 8.8 3.4 1.0 8.7% 22.5% .297 106 95 1.5 Jason Schmidt
Matt Manning 7.0 3.1 1.3 7.9% 17.7% .299 93 108 1.1 Ramiro Mendoza
Michael Fulmer 8.7 3.1 1.3 8.0% 22.3% .300 99 101 0.8 Tim Crews
Garrett Hill 7.7 4.2 1.1 10.5% 19.1% .301 91 110 0.7 Randy Bockus
Beau Brieske 7.0 2.8 1.4 7.1% 18.0% .295 90 112 0.7 Elizardo Ramirez
Paul Richan 6.3 2.4 1.1 6.2% 16.3% .302 93 107 0.6 Shawn Hill
Julio Teheran 7.8 4.4 1.7 11.1% 19.7% .265 85 118 0.6 Jason Isringhausen
Mark Leiter Jr. 8.1 3.0 1.5 7.8% 20.8% .301 89 113 0.5 Travis Smith
Tyler Alexander 7.0 2.0 1.7 5.2% 17.9% .304 88 114 0.5 Derek Lilliquist
Alex Faedo 8.2 2.4 1.9 6.2% 21.0% .298 87 116 0.5 Justin Duchscherer
Wily Peralta 6.7 4.3 1.3 10.6% 16.6% .288 87 115 0.4 Bill Zuber
Drew Hutchison 7.0 3.8 1.4 9.5% 17.5% .298 84 119 0.4 Jim Lewis
Reese Olson 6.7 4.8 1.1 11.6% 16.3% .298 83 120 0.3 Bill Mooneyham
Gregory Soto 11.0 5.5 1.0 13.9% 27.8% .293 101 99 0.2 Mitch Williams
Ricardo Pinto 6.3 3.7 1.3 9.2% 15.5% .301 82 122 0.2 Dennis Tankersley
José Cisnero 9.3 4.7 1.1 11.9% 23.4% .291 100 100 0.2 Heathcliff Slocumb
Alex Lange 8.5 5.0 1.1 12.1% 20.8% .303 88 114 0.2 Bill Mooneyham
Jose Urena 6.6 3.6 1.5 8.9% 16.4% .294 82 121 0.1 Jim Lewis
Derek Holland 9.2 3.9 1.6 9.7% 23.1% .302 86 116 0.1 Dan Schatzeder
Zac Houston 9.6 4.9 1.2 12.3% 23.9% .289 96 104 0.1 Justin Kaye
Angel De Jesus 8.7 5.0 1.0 12.4% 21.6% .299 93 107 0.1 Anthony Chavez
Ian Krol 8.3 4.1 1.2 10.3% 21.0% .294 95 105 0.1 Jamie Easterly
Jacob Barnes 9.1 3.7 1.2 9.5% 23.3% .303 98 102 0.1 Nate Field
Nivaldo Rodriguez 6.3 4.1 1.5 10.1% 15.6% .289 81 124 0.0 Jeff Bettendorf
Franklin Perez 6.4 5.2 1.2 12.4% 15.2% .306 77 131 0.0 Darren Holmes
Will Vest 7.2 3.7 1.1 9.2% 18.1% .302 92 108 -0.1 Blaine Neal
Joe Jimenez 11.0 4.6 1.4 11.6% 27.6% .293 92 109 -0.1 Bo Donaldson
Ethan DeCaster 7.0 3.3 1.3 8.3% 17.8% .296 88 113 -0.1 Jeremy Ward
Buck Farmer 8.4 4.2 1.4 10.5% 21.0% .294 92 109 -0.1 David Lee
Erasmo Ramirez 6.2 2.8 1.6 7.2% 15.8% .290 79 127 -0.1 Sam Arrington
Kyle Funkhouser 8.6 5.4 1.4 13.2% 21.0% .296 83 121 -0.1 Dennis Sarfate
Drew Carlton 6.8 2.7 1.4 7.0% 17.2% .295 88 113 -0.1 Jim Willoughby
Brad Bass 6.6 3.9 1.4 9.7% 16.3% .303 80 124 -0.1 Chuck Crumpton
Joe Navilhon 7.5 3.2 1.5 8.0% 19.1% .298 88 113 -0.1 Luis Andujar
Nolan Blackwood 6.3 3.7 1.2 9.2% 15.8% .301 87 114 -0.2 Justin Huisman
Billy Lescher 7.6 3.6 1.6 8.9% 18.9% .300 83 121 -0.2 John Costello
Logan Shore 6.1 3.6 1.6 8.9% 14.9% .298 75 134 -0.2 Juan Sandoval
Miguel Del Pozo 9.1 4.4 1.4 10.9% 22.8% .304 86 117 -0.2 Ben Julianel
Wladimir Pinto 8.6 5.4 1.4 13.1% 20.9% .300 81 123 -0.2 Greg Coppeta
Chavez Fernander 6.2 4.5 1.3 11.0% 15.1% .294 79 126 -0.3 Timothy Burton
Jason Foley 6.9 4.5 1.2 10.8% 16.7% .299 84 119 -0.3 Greg Bauer
Chance Kirby 5.4 3.4 1.7 8.2% 13.2% .298 74 135 -0.3 Mike Hinckley
Ruben Garcia 7.8 5.4 1.2 13.1% 18.9% .295 84 119 -0.3 Daniel Foli
Rony García 7.7 3.9 2.1 9.7% 19.0% .298 71 141 -0.3 Brent Knackert
Joey Wentz 7.4 5.1 1.7 12.2% 17.7% .298 73 138 -0.4 Bobby Seay
Cale Coshow 7.7 4.5 1.4 10.9% 18.8% .303 81 124 -0.4 Felix Romero
Pedro Payano 6.7 4.9 1.5 11.7% 16.0% .299 74 135 -0.4 Brad Kaufman
Elvin Rodriguez 6.5 4.0 1.7 9.7% 15.9% .299 72 138 -0.4 Donne Wall
Henry Martinez 7.1 4.2 1.5 10.4% 17.4% .296 81 123 -0.4 Nate Field
Jesus Rodriguez 5.2 3.4 1.7 8.3% 12.7% .301 73 137 -0.5 Fredy Deza
Yaya Chentouf 5.8 3.9 1.2 9.5% 14.1% .304 82 122 -0.5 Rich DeLosSantos
Zack Hess 7.7 6.0 1.3 14.3% 18.3% .298 78 129 -0.5 Greg Coppeta
Bryan Garcia 6.8 4.6 1.6 11.2% 16.5% .298 76 132 -0.7 Martin Rivas

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Detroit Michaelmember
9 months ago

The name “Other Frank Thomas” made me laugh.

Newfy
9 months ago

Only logged in to type the same thing. Hilarious.