2022 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

I can’t say I’m displeased to see Luis Urías at the top of the batter list — I’ve long been fascinated by him and even featured him on my breakout list last year — but I’d definitely be uneasy about having him as my team’s best player. Urías projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. Third base (or second) is a better long-term home for him than shortstop, so last year’s Willy Adames acquisition showed the correct instinct on Milwaukee’s part.

I hoped that by this point, another year removed from 2019’s fractured kneecap and with a normal season, Christian Yelich’s career would be back on track. Perhaps a repeat of his MVP-worthy 2018 and ’19 peak was overly optimistic, but I at least thought he’d maintain the level of play he showed before the trade to the Brew Crew. While his batting average rebounded from 2020’s Mendoza Line-adjacent .205 thanks to a more typical BABIP, he was far from challenging for the BA crown. Just as worrisome, the power he had previously interspersed among his voluminous line drives wholly disappeared. Some of the blame can be placed on his back issues, but back issues can be quite difficult to resolve long-term. Even in Yelich’s good months, such as his .313/.359/.470 August, the home run power was missing. Yelich’s decline is one of the big reasons Milwaukee only ranked 23rd in wRC+ in 2021 and 24th in ’20. The offense was never quite as good as it was thought to be — their recent wRC+ peak was 11th in 2018 — and his pumpkinification has damaged the team’s run-scoring potential.

Compensating for Yelich’s missing output has proven tricky. Lorenzo Cain’s offensive decline was always expected given his age, so it’s unlikely there will be a nice surprise boost from center this season. Hunter Renfroe effectively replaces Avisaíl García, but like García, Renfroe is simply a complementary talent. Rowdy Tellez is in a similar talent tier at first base. The likely adoption of the universal designated hitter is unfortunate for the Brewers in the near-term; they simply don’t have the in-house bats to credibly field another position where the offense is crucial.

ZiPS does not see immediate help on the horizon, either. Garrett Mitchell was overmatched in Double-A, and Brice Turang’s minor league offense was almost entirely walks-based, an inauspicious sign for a prospect. ZiPS thinks Joey Wiemer has a solid future, but that future is unlikely to start in 2022. As for Keston Hiura, there’s still hope for him, but he’s going to need to get over a severe case of prospect’s disease; based on his 2021 performance, there’s no position in the majors that both his glove and bat can support.

Now, ZiPS may be underestimating Omar Narváez, given the quickness of his defensive turnaround, but it’s hard to see much realistic upside in the lineup as a whole, and the team’s projected depth is weak across the board. Short of some pleasant surprises, Milwaukee’s lineup will be hard-pressed to be league average.

Pitchers

The projections are considerably better on this side of the team. ZiPS has historically been a Corbin Burnes truther, and his Cy Young-winning 2021 performance quite obviously didn’t change the computer’s mind. His comp list is almost entirely elite pitchers in their prime, with names like Roger Clemens, Jose Rijo, Camilo Pascual, Roy Oswalt, John Smoltz, Ron Guidry, and Orel Hershiser peppering the top 10. His top comp, Kevin Appier, is probably better than you remember. Go ahead and click. I’ll wait, since that’s how writing works.

Brandon Woodruff is nearly on Burnes’ level and, almost as important, has now also shown that he can maintain his health for a full load of innings. If Freddy Peralta can throw at least 160 or so innings, he’s a projected All-Star as well. ZiPS loves the team’s depth after the top three as well. The computer would really like to see Aaron Ashby stretched out more than the team seems inclined to, but Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer, and Ethan Small all project as average or better. ZiPS even holds out hope for Josh Lindblom. While Milwaukee could pick up another starting pitcher, I think offensive additions are more crucial now, a reversal of the situation from a few years ago.

Like the rotation, the bullpen projects near the top of baseball. Of the quartet of Ashby, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Jake Cousins, Cousins has the worst ERA+ projection at a very impressive 135 (Ashby’s at 137 as a full-time reliever). The depth chart projection for the relievers would be even better if not for the fact that ZiPS believes that a back-end of the bullpen of Hoby Milner, Angel Perdomo, and Luke Barker would be considerably more effective than Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave, and J.C. Mejía.

Overall, I think the Brewers are in a race with the Cardinals. I’d probably give a slight edge to St. Louis, but the Brewers possibly have more upside thanks to the pitching, especially in a postseason scenario. And there’s still time remaining for improvements to be made in free agency part deux.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Luis Urías R 25 SS 587 508 76 128 25 3 20 75 63 126 6 2
Christian Yelich L 30 LF 519 441 80 118 22 3 22 70 71 125 15 3
Willy Adames R 26 SS 584 524 76 134 27 2 24 69 56 168 6 4
Kolten Wong L 31 2B 504 446 61 118 24 3 12 48 37 84 13 5
Lorenzo Cain R 36 CF 431 388 51 103 19 0 9 34 37 75 14 4
Hunter Renfroe R 30 RF 525 472 72 108 22 0 31 81 45 140 3 1
Omar Narváez L 30 C 438 387 48 98 16 0 13 48 42 86 0 0
Renato Núñez R 28 1B 496 446 63 110 20 1 25 77 37 128 1 0
Rowdy Tellez L 27 1B 451 407 55 105 21 1 21 61 35 103 1 1
Daniel Vogelbach L 29 1B 416 348 52 79 14 0 18 55 66 97 0 0
Tyrone Taylor R 28 LF 355 322 42 77 15 3 13 49 23 82 6 1
Jace Peterson L 32 2B 392 342 45 82 16 2 9 42 45 88 11 2
Brice Turang L 22 SS 529 477 72 112 20 3 10 46 45 111 15 6
Mike Brosseau R 28 3B 408 366 50 85 18 1 14 47 31 110 4 1
Tyler White R 31 1B 396 337 51 81 17 1 11 42 48 82 1 1
Joey Wiemer R 23 RF 500 455 62 108 15 1 21 62 36 127 15 3
Jamie Westbrook R 27 2B 430 388 52 92 17 2 14 50 28 86 2 1
Mark Mathias R 27 2B 394 350 42 80 20 1 7 35 33 94 9 2
Pablo Reyes R 28 3B 318 287 38 66 15 1 8 33 24 66 6 4
Daniel Robertson R 28 SS 280 240 30 53 9 0 5 20 31 74 1 1
Garrett Mitchell L 23 CF 324 292 44 65 9 1 10 33 30 92 10 2
Jon Singleton L 30 1B 478 403 59 83 18 0 20 58 69 148 2 0
Jonathan Davis R 30 CF 350 305 44 62 12 2 8 30 29 94 11 3
Jakson Reetz R 26 C 331 293 35 56 11 1 9 29 28 96 1 1
David Fry R 26 3B 446 407 47 85 19 1 13 46 32 121 2 2
Weston Wilson R 27 1B 383 347 41 75 14 2 15 43 33 107 7 3
Kevin Kramer L 28 SS 392 347 44 74 16 1 9 40 33 114 2 3
Matt Lipka R 30 CF 370 338 41 75 14 2 9 34 23 98 17 6
Mario Feliciano R 23 C 323 296 36 65 12 2 10 37 16 98 1 1
Tyler Friis B 26 2B 198 177 19 38 7 1 2 13 18 41 6 3
Brett Sullivan L 28 C 374 345 40 80 17 2 8 35 24 64 9 4
Hernan Perez R 31 2B 271 253 31 59 12 0 8 25 16 69 7 1
Luke Maile R 31 C 176 157 20 32 8 0 2 15 16 52 1 0
Gabe Holt L 24 2B 450 408 67 98 14 0 4 30 36 72 7 1
Pedro Severino R 28 C 400 360 34 83 15 1 10 46 33 99 1 0
Andruw Monasterio R 25 3B 420 375 47 83 14 2 6 31 35 114 5 4
Abraham Almonte B 33 LF 309 267 42 61 17 2 9 32 41 71 5 3
Dylan Cozens L 28 RF 161 137 18 23 5 1 7 18 21 69 4 2
Keston Hiura R 25 1B 493 440 58 100 21 2 19 60 37 166 8 4
Brent Diaz R 26 C 218 193 23 35 7 0 5 18 17 74 2 2
Keon Broxton R 32 CF 287 257 28 49 5 1 7 21 24 128 9 3
Hayden Cantrelle B 23 2B 413 354 48 71 11 1 8 27 47 120 14 4
Dustin Peterson R 27 LF 358 330 41 80 15 1 10 41 21 73 1 1
Zach Green R 28 3B 362 324 42 64 16 1 16 48 30 143 0 1
Christian Kelley R 28 C 222 200 23 39 7 1 4 18 17 64 0 0
Mitch Longo L 27 LF 376 346 38 79 15 2 9 31 23 94 13 2
Zavier Warren B 23 3B 417 380 51 83 13 1 12 42 30 102 4 0
Garrett Whitley R 25 LF 383 341 32 71 12 2 10 27 34 148 8 5
David Dahl L 28 LF 392 361 44 87 20 2 11 42 22 102 4 2
Luis Castro R 26 1B 398 349 45 72 13 1 12 38 34 129 5 2
Logan Forsythe R 35 2B 309 272 27 57 11 1 5 25 33 82 2 0
Cam Devanney R 25 2B 329 295 37 54 9 1 6 26 23 97 4 4
Troy Stokes Jr. R 26 RF 340 299 34 58 14 1 8 27 33 95 10 2
Jacob Nottingham R 27 1B 273 243 29 46 11 0 9 34 20 100 3 1
Thomas Dillard B 24 1B 426 377 49 73 12 1 13 41 41 152 4 1
Korry Howell R 23 CF 429 390 43 78 14 2 12 37 31 141 13 4
Tristen Lutz R 23 RF 356 327 38 71 12 1 8 31 22 122 2 4
Chad Spanberger L 26 RF 410 375 41 71 14 1 13 42 29 143 3 2
Yeison Coca B 23 3B 354 328 34 61 10 2 6 26 23 116 7 6
Jesus Lujano L 23 LF 336 313 34 66 11 1 6 24 18 91 7 3
Je’Von Ward L 22 LF 377 347 40 70 12 2 6 30 23 112 6 5

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Luis Urías .252 .346 .431 106 .179 .298 5.4 -1 3.0 Kurt Stillwell
Christian Yelich .268 .374 .481 126 .213 .327 6.8 -1 2.9 John Kruk
Willy Adames .256 .328 .452 105 .197 .331 5.3 0 2.9 Jhonny Peralta
Kolten Wong .265 .337 .413 99 .148 .303 5.2 7 2.6 Todd Walker
Lorenzo Cain .265 .334 .384 91 .119 .309 4.9 7 2.0 Jose Cardenal
Hunter Renfroe .229 .295 .472 100 .244 .256 4.9 5 1.7 Bill Melton
Omar Narváez .253 .331 .395 93 .142 .295 4.7 -1 1.6 Eddie Taubensee
Renato Núñez .247 .314 .464 104 .217 .290 5.2 0 1.3 Matthew LeCroy
Rowdy Tellez .258 .324 .469 108 .211 .297 5.5 -1 1.2 Daryle Ward
Daniel Vogelbach .227 .351 .422 105 .195 .262 5.2 -1 1.2 Ed Herrmann
Tyrone Taylor .239 .299 .425 90 .186 .282 4.7 5 1.0 Raul Ibanez
Jace Peterson .240 .332 .377 89 .137 .298 4.7 -2 1.0 Luis Alicea
Brice Turang .235 .302 .352 74 .117 .287 3.8 3 0.9 Billy Bates
Mike Brosseau .232 .304 .402 86 .169 .293 4.4 1 0.9 Matt Craig
Tyler White .240 .338 .395 95 .154 .287 4.7 1 0.8 Jarrod Patterson
Joey Wiemer .237 .299 .413 87 .176 .283 4.6 2 0.8 Chad Mottola
Jamie Westbrook .237 .295 .399 83 .162 .271 4.2 1 0.7 Billy Jurges
Mark Mathias .229 .301 .351 74 .123 .293 3.9 4 0.7 Edgar Gonzalez
Pablo Reyes .230 .292 .373 76 .143 .272 3.7 6 0.7 Brad Seitzer
Daniel Robertson .221 .326 .321 74 .100 .298 3.6 0 0.5 Chris Gomez
Garrett Mitchell .223 .299 .363 76 .140 .289 4.0 -1 0.3 Kevin Koslofski
Jon Singleton .206 .322 .400 91 .194 .268 4.4 -3 0.3 Pat Dodson
Jonathan Davis .203 .296 .334 68 .131 .266 3.5 1 0.2 Ryan Christenson
Jakson Reetz .191 .279 .328 61 .137 .250 3.0 2 0.2 Blake Barthol
David Fry .209 .274 .356 66 .147 .264 3.3 5 0.2 Scott White
Weston Wilson .216 .287 .398 80 .182 .267 4.0 4 0.2 Chad Rupp
Kevin Kramer .213 .287 .343 67 .130 .290 3.3 1 0.1 Emerson Frostad
Matt Lipka .222 .278 .355 67 .133 .286 3.6 2 0.1 Randy Kutcher
Mario Feliciano .220 .266 .375 68 .155 .293 3.4 0 0.1 Andy Stewart
Tyler Friis .215 .289 .299 58 .085 .269 3.0 3 0.1 Joe Morales
Brett Sullivan .232 .283 .362 71 .130 .264 3.6 -3 0.1 Mike Heath
Hernan Perez .233 .278 .375 72 .142 .290 3.9 -1 0.1 Steve Sisco
Luke Maile .204 .286 .293 55 .089 .291 2.9 1 0.1 Paul Hoover
Gabe Holt .240 .307 .304 64 .064 .283 3.5 1 0.0 John Skorochocki
Pedro Severino .231 .298 .361 75 .131 .291 3.8 -6 0.0 Jason Jaramillo
Andruw Monasterio .221 .290 .317 62 .096 .302 3.1 4 0.0 Scott Leius
Abraham Almonte .228 .330 .408 96 .180 .278 4.7 -7 0.0 Jose Cruz
Dylan Cozens .168 .281 .372 72 .204 .262 3.4 1 -0.1 Doug Frobel
Keston Hiura .227 .303 .414 89 .186 .318 4.4 -4 -0.1 Jeff Baker
Brent Diaz .181 .263 .295 49 .114 .263 2.5 3 -0.1 Patrick Arlis
Keon Broxton .191 .263 .300 50 .109 .344 2.7 5 -0.1 Damon Buford
Hayden Cantrelle .201 .302 .305 63 .105 .279 3.3 -1 -0.1 Charlie Montoyo
Dustin Peterson .242 .292 .385 79 .142 .283 4.0 0 -0.2 Danny Buxbaum
Zach Green .198 .272 .401 76 .204 .291 3.6 -4 -0.2 Paul Russo
Christian Kelley .195 .267 .300 51 .105 .265 2.7 1 -0.2 Tom Nieto
Mitch Longo .228 .281 .361 70 .133 .288 3.8 1 -0.3 Jim Wawruck
Zavier Warren .218 .280 .353 67 .134 .267 3.5 -2 -0.3 Chad Tredaway
Garrett Whitley .208 .286 .343 67 .135 .333 3.3 3 -0.3 Brian Rosinski
David Dahl .241 .287 .399 80 .158 .306 4.1 -3 -0.3 Rod Allen
Luis Castro .206 .294 .352 72 .146 .288 3.6 1 -0.3 Howard Prager
Logan Forsythe .210 .301 .313 64 .103 .281 3.3 -5 -0.5 Keith Ginter
Cam Devanney .183 .254 .281 43 .098 .250 2.2 4 -0.7 Gil Velazquez
Troy Stokes Jr. .194 .285 .328 63 .134 .255 3.3 -2 -0.8 Chad Alexander
Jacob Nottingham .189 .267 .346 62 .156 .276 3.1 -1 -0.8 Matt Hagen
Thomas Dillard .194 .276 .334 62 .141 .283 3.1 0 -1.1 Allen Butler
Korry Howell .200 .269 .338 61 .138 .278 3.2 -7 -1.1 Hipolito Martinez
Tristen Lutz .217 .273 .333 61 .116 .320 3.0 -3 -1.3 Jim Olander
Chad Spanberger .189 .252 .336 55 .147 .265 2.8 -1 -1.5 Garrick Haltiwanger
Yeison Coca .186 .241 .284 39 .098 .267 2.1 0 -1.6 Brian Shipp
Jesus Lujano .211 .260 .310 51 .099 .278 2.8 -7 -1.9 Wes Pratt
Je’Von Ward .202 .251 .300 46 .098 .279 2.4 -5 -2.2 Randy Rigsby

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Corbin Burnes R 27 11 5 2.77 27 26 156.0 116 48 13 48 204 2.71
Brandon Woodruff R 29 11 6 3.08 28 27 157.7 126 54 16 40 187 3.02
Freddy Peralta R 26 10 6 3.59 35 25 143.0 103 57 18 61 198 3.49
Aaron Ashby L 24 10 6 3.67 38 19 112.7 94 46 12 52 136 3.69
Josh Hader L 28 5 2 2.34 59 0 61.7 33 16 7 24 106 2.53
Adrian Houser R 29 8 7 4.37 29 24 127.7 125 62 15 51 99 4.52
Josh Lindblom R 35 6 5 4.25 26 20 118.7 118 56 17 33 111 4.18
Devin Williams R 27 7 3 2.57 55 0 56.0 36 16 5 27 92 2.66
Eric Lauer L 27 7 7 4.49 27 23 126.3 120 63 20 46 127 4.44
Noah Zavolas R 26 6 6 4.77 22 22 115.0 122 61 18 33 87 4.72
Brett Anderson L 34 7 7 4.73 22 22 99.0 107 52 14 30 59 4.83
Ethan Small L 25 3 3 4.50 19 19 76.0 72 38 10 37 76 4.51
Alec Bettinger R 26 6 6 4.86 25 21 113.0 118 61 20 34 99 4.79
Andy Otero L 30 4 3 4.39 22 11 65.7 65 32 10 19 62 4.28
Caleb Boushley R 28 7 7 4.95 24 19 107.3 118 59 19 29 85 4.88
Jake Cousins R 27 2 1 3.27 42 1 44.0 33 16 5 18 60 3.43
Brent Suter L 32 7 6 4.11 46 4 65.7 65 30 10 18 57 4.29
Jesús Castillo R 26 6 7 4.98 28 18 99.3 111 55 16 28 61 5.07
Blaine Hardy L 35 5 5 4.55 30 7 59.3 59 30 9 22 48 4.75
Hoby Milner L 31 1 1 3.83 49 0 51.7 47 22 9 14 62 4.03
Luke Barker R 30 6 4 3.91 48 0 53.0 48 23 8 15 58 3.97
Dylan File R 26 6 7 5.18 19 19 90.3 99 52 18 24 71 5.16
Daniel Norris L 29 3 2 4.05 59 0 60.0 55 27 8 25 63 4.16
Carlos Luna R 25 4 4 5.06 15 12 64.0 69 36 13 17 53 5.10
Angel Perdomo L 28 2 2 4.18 36 2 47.3 36 22 6 32 68 4.24
Nick Bennett L 24 5 6 5.24 21 16 91.0 96 53 16 42 77 5.32
Thomas Jankins R 26 5 6 5.36 25 17 97.3 109 58 18 32 67 5.35
Clayton Andrews L 25 3 2 4.09 24 0 33.0 29 15 4 18 37 4.24
Victor Castaneda R 23 6 7 5.42 24 21 99.7 105 60 19 43 86 5.41
Peter Strzelecki R 27 1 1 4.33 40 0 52.0 49 25 7 21 53 4.28
Kyle Lobstein L 32 3 3 4.84 37 5 61.3 61 33 9 26 52 4.81
Jason Alexander R 29 4 5 5.37 17 13 70.3 76 42 13 27 55 5.34
John Curtiss R 29 2 2 4.67 39 3 44.3 42 23 8 18 48 4.71
Justin Bullock R 23 7 9 5.48 20 20 88.7 97 54 17 35 68 5.49
Brad Boxberger R 34 4 4 4.47 61 0 52.3 43 26 9 28 68 4.59
Colin Rea R 31 5 6 5.42 17 14 74.7 82 45 16 26 61 5.54
Hunter Strickland R 33 2 2 4.47 50 0 48.3 45 24 8 19 50 4.57
Connor Sadzeck R 30 3 3 4.46 38 0 42.3 40 21 5 24 40 4.67
Matt Hardy R 26 3 3 4.78 33 2 52.7 53 28 8 23 49 4.77
John Axford R 39 1 1 4.30 22 0 23.0 21 11 2 11 23 3.88
J.T. Hintzen R 26 4 3 4.71 38 1 57.3 55 30 10 25 61 4.78
R.J. Alvarez R 31 3 2 4.54 40 0 39.7 37 20 5 21 41 4.49
Trevor Gott R 29 3 2 4.68 45 1 42.3 39 22 7 18 46 4.57
Miguel Sánchez R 28 3 3 4.70 45 1 53.7 52 28 9 23 54 4.80
Jordan Zimmermann R 36 4 6 5.59 18 18 87.0 101 54 19 20 64 5.34
Taylor Floyd R 24 4 3 4.62 40 0 50.7 47 26 7 26 52 4.64
Eric Yardley R 31 2 2 4.68 54 0 57.7 62 30 7 21 37 4.78
Jandel Gustave R 29 2 2 4.69 40 0 40.3 39 21 6 15 36 4.67
Chad Sobotka R 28 2 2 4.74 47 0 43.7 41 23 6 24 43 4.78
Justin Topa R 31 1 2 5.00 21 1 27.0 29 15 4 9 22 4.59
Moises Gomez R 25 3 3 4.93 38 1 49.3 49 27 8 24 47 5.02
Robbie Hitt R 26 3 3 4.81 40 0 48.7 48 26 5 29 41 4.80
Zack Brown R 27 3 3 5.63 22 13 76.7 81 48 14 42 64 5.68
Hobie Harris R 29 3 3 4.87 37 0 40.7 39 22 6 22 42 4.80
Trevor Kelley R 28 4 4 4.87 45 0 48.0 48 26 8 21 46 4.87
J.C. Mejía R 25 5 7 5.84 26 16 74.0 80 48 16 36 63 5.91
Braden Webb R 27 5 7 5.64 35 8 59.0 57 37 9 43 58 5.59
Quintin Torres-Costa L 27 2 2 5.26 35 0 37.7 34 22 5 28 40 5.17
Lucas Erceg R 27 3 5 6.11 23 13 45.7 47 31 8 35 37 6.33
Bubba Derby R 28 4 5 5.79 26 9 74.7 80 48 17 34 64 5.95
Rex Brothers L 34 2 2 5.36 48 0 45.3 36 27 8 35 64 5.23
Cam Robinson R 22 2 3 5.40 38 1 50.0 51 30 7 33 43 5.44
Patrick Weigel R 27 2 3 5.91 36 6 56.3 57 37 11 38 55 5.95
Arnaldo Hernandez R 26 6 10 6.62 25 23 121.0 148 89 31 55 73 6.82

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Corbin Burnes 11.8 2.8 0.8 7.6% 32.4% .288 160 63 4.7 Kevin Appier
Brandon Woodruff 10.7 2.3 0.9 6.3% 29.4% .285 143 70 4.1 Jose Rijo
Freddy Peralta 12.5 3.8 1.1 10.3% 33.4% .276 123 81 3.0 Chan Ho Park
Aaron Ashby 10.9 4.2 1.0 10.8% 28.2% .296 120 83 2.2 Johan Santana
Josh Hader 15.5 3.5 1.0 9.9% 43.8% .255 189 53 2.0 Jesse Orosco
Adrian Houser 7.0 3.6 1.1 9.2% 17.8% .286 101 99 1.6 Bob Rush
Josh Lindblom 8.4 2.5 1.3 6.5% 21.9% .299 104 96 1.6 Gil Heredia
Devin Williams 14.8 4.3 0.8 11.7% 39.8% .298 172 58 1.5 Mark Littell
Eric Lauer 9.0 3.3 1.4 8.5% 23.5% .292 99 102 1.4 Mark Redman
Noah Zavolas 6.8 2.6 1.4 6.6% 17.5% .295 93 108 1.0 Dave Telgheder
Brett Anderson 5.4 2.7 1.3 7.0% 13.8% .288 94 107 0.9 Zane Smith
Ethan Small 9.0 4.4 1.2 11.0% 22.6% .297 98 102 0.9 Bryan Hickerson
Alec Bettinger 7.9 2.7 1.6 7.0% 20.2% .297 91 110 0.9 Elizardo Ramirez
Andy Otero 8.5 2.6 1.4 6.8% 22.2% .297 101 99 0.8 Rheal Cormier
Caleb Boushley 7.1 2.4 1.6 6.2% 18.2% .302 89 112 0.7 Josh Towers
Jake Cousins 12.3 3.7 1.0 9.7% 32.4% .286 135 74 0.7 Scott Williamson
Brent Suter 7.8 2.5 1.4 6.5% 20.7% .289 108 93 0.7 Carl Willis
Jesús Castillo 5.5 2.5 1.4 6.4% 14.0% .293 89 113 0.6 Nick Blackburn
Blaine Hardy 7.3 3.3 1.4 8.6% 18.7% .284 97 103 0.5 Darren Oliver
Hoby Milner 10.8 2.4 1.6 6.5% 28.7% .297 115 87 0.5 Randy Flores
Luke Barker 9.8 2.5 1.4 6.8% 26.1% .290 113 88 0.5 Mark Huismann
Dylan File 7.1 2.4 1.8 6.1% 18.1% .296 85 117 0.4 Greg Wooten
Daniel Norris 9.5 3.8 1.2 9.7% 24.4% .294 109 92 0.4 Buddy Schultz
Carlos Luna 7.5 2.4 1.8 6.2% 19.2% .295 87 115 0.4 Geoff Geary
Angel Perdomo 12.9 6.1 1.1 15.2% 32.2% .297 106 95 0.3 Armando Almanza
Nick Bennett 7.6 4.2 1.6 10.3% 18.8% .297 84 119 0.3 Rocky Cherry
Thomas Jankins 6.2 3.0 1.7 7.4% 15.6% .295 82 121 0.2 Keith Evans
Clayton Andrews 10.1 4.9 1.1 12.4% 25.5% .294 108 93 0.2 Luke Walker
Victor Castaneda 7.8 3.9 1.7 9.6% 19.3% .295 82 123 0.2 Justin Miller
Peter Strzelecki 9.2 3.6 1.2 9.3% 23.6% .298 102 98 0.2 Hipolito Pichardo
Kyle Lobstein 7.6 3.8 1.3 9.6% 19.3% .289 91 110 0.2 Mike Venafro
Jason Alexander 7.0 3.5 1.7 8.6% 17.6% .294 82 122 0.2 Jed Murray
John Curtiss 9.7 3.7 1.6 9.4% 25.0% .293 95 106 0.2 Tim Layana
Justin Bullock 6.9 3.6 1.7 8.8% 17.2% .295 81 124 0.2 Bill Fulton
Brad Boxberger 11.7 4.8 1.5 12.3% 29.8% .283 99 101 0.1 Rich DeLucia
Colin Rea 7.4 3.1 1.9 7.9% 18.5% .296 82 123 0.1 James Baldwin
Hunter Strickland 9.3 3.5 1.5 9.1% 24.0% .287 99 101 0.1 Doug Henry
Connor Sadzeck 8.5 5.1 1.1 12.6% 21.1% .294 99 101 0.1 Ernie Camacho
Matt Hardy 8.4 3.9 1.4 9.9% 21.0% .300 92 108 0.1 Mauro Zarate
John Axford 9.0 4.3 0.8 11.0% 23.0% .302 103 97 0.1 Doug Brocail
J.T. Hintzen 9.6 3.9 1.6 10.0% 24.3% .296 94 107 0.1 John Johnstone
R.J. Alvarez 9.3 4.8 1.1 11.9% 23.3% .299 97 103 0.1 Matt Karchner
Trevor Gott 9.8 3.8 1.5 9.8% 25.1% .291 95 106 0.1 Alan Mills
Miguel Sánchez 9.1 3.9 1.5 9.8% 23.0% .295 94 106 0.1 Hipolito Pichardo
Jordan Zimmermann 6.6 2.1 2.0 5.3% 16.9% .301 79 126 0.1 Kevin Jarvis
Taylor Floyd 9.2 4.6 1.2 11.6% 23.1% .292 96 104 0.0 Blaine Neal
Eric Yardley 5.8 3.3 1.1 8.2% 14.5% .296 94 106 0.0 John Boozer
Jandel Gustave 8.0 3.3 1.3 8.6% 20.6% .287 94 106 0.0 Ron Musselman
Chad Sobotka 8.9 4.9 1.2 12.3% 22.1% .292 93 107 0.0 Gabriel Dehoyos
Justin Topa 7.3 3.0 1.3 7.6% 18.6% .305 88 113 0.0 Shawn Camp
Moises Gomez 8.6 4.4 1.5 10.9% 21.3% .295 90 111 -0.1 Brandon Kolb
Robbie Hitt 7.6 5.4 0.9 13.1% 18.5% .299 92 109 -0.1 Casey Daigle
Zack Brown 7.5 4.9 1.6 12.0% 18.2% .295 78 127 -0.1 J.D. Durbin
Hobie Harris 9.3 4.9 1.3 12.1% 23.1% .300 91 110 -0.1 Dwight Bernard
Trevor Kelley 8.6 3.9 1.5 9.9% 21.7% .296 91 110 -0.1 Jesus Colome
J.C. Mejía 7.7 4.4 1.9 10.7% 18.7% .294 76 132 -0.2 William Juarez
Braden Webb 8.8 6.6 1.4 15.5% 20.9% .294 78 128 -0.2 Travis Anderson
Quintin Torres-Costa 9.6 6.7 1.2 16.0% 22.9% .290 84 119 -0.2 Thomas Hart
Lucas Erceg 7.3 6.9 1.6 16.0% 16.9% .287 72 138 -0.3 Dennis Long
Bubba Derby 7.7 4.1 2.0 10.1% 19.0% .289 76 131 -0.3 John Pawlowski
Rex Brothers 12.7 6.9 1.6 16.7% 30.6% .286 82 121 -0.3 Doug Creek
Cam Robinson 7.7 5.9 1.3 14.2% 18.5% .299 82 122 -0.3 Ray Soff
Patrick Weigel 8.8 6.1 1.8 14.4% 20.9% .295 75 134 -0.4 Kenny Marrero
Arnaldo Hernandez 5.4 4.1 2.3 9.8% 13.0% .295 67 150 -1.3 Bryan Eversgerd

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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scotth855member
5 months ago

Congrats on the final team projection, Dan!

Why does ZIPs estimate Burnes/Woodruff with one relief appearance each?