2022 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

I can’t say I’m displeased to see Luis Urías at the top of the batter list — I’ve long been fascinated by him and even featured him on my breakout list last year — but I’d definitely be uneasy about having him as my team’s best player. Urías projects to essentially repeat his 2021 season. Third base (or second) is a better long-term home for him than shortstop, so last year’s Willy Adames acquisition showed the correct instinct on Milwaukee’s part.

I hoped that by this point, another year removed from 2019’s fractured kneecap and with a normal season, Christian Yelich’s career would be back on track. Perhaps a repeat of his MVP-worthy 2018 and ’19 peak was overly optimistic, but I at least thought he’d maintain the level of play he showed before the trade to the Brew Crew. While his batting average rebounded from 2020’s Mendoza Line-adjacent .205 thanks to a more typical BABIP, he was far from challenging for the BA crown. Just as worrisome, the power he had previously interspersed among his voluminous line drives wholly disappeared. Some of the blame can be placed on his back issues, but back issues can be quite difficult to resolve long-term. Even in Yelich’s good months, such as his .313/.359/.470 August, the home run power was missing. Yelich’s decline is one of the big reasons Milwaukee only ranked 23rd in wRC+ in 2021 and 24th in ’20. The offense was never quite as good as it was thought to be — their recent wRC+ peak was 11th in 2018 — and his pumpkinification has damaged the team’s run-scoring potential.

Compensating for Yelich’s missing output has proven tricky. Lorenzo Cain’s offensive decline was always expected given his age, so it’s unlikely there will be a nice surprise boost from center this season. Hunter Renfroe effectively replaces Avisaíl García, but like García, Renfroe is simply a complementary talent. Rowdy Tellez is in a similar talent tier at first base. The likely adoption of the universal designated hitter is unfortunate for the Brewers in the near-term; they simply don’t have the in-house bats to credibly field another position where the offense is crucial.

ZiPS does not see immediate help on the horizon, either. Garrett Mitchell was overmatched in Double-A, and Brice Turang’s minor league offense was almost entirely walks-based, an inauspicious sign for a prospect. ZiPS thinks Joey Wiemer has a solid future, but that future is unlikely to start in 2022. As for Keston Hiura, there’s still hope for him, but he’s going to need to get over a severe case of prospect’s disease; based on his 2021 performance, there’s no position in the majors that both his glove and bat can support.

Now, ZiPS may be underestimating Omar Narváez, given the quickness of his defensive turnaround, but it’s hard to see much realistic upside in the lineup as a whole, and the team’s projected depth is weak across the board. Short of some pleasant surprises, Milwaukee’s lineup will be hard-pressed to be league average.

Pitchers

The projections are considerably better on this side of the team. ZiPS has historically been a Corbin Burnes truther, and his Cy Young-winning 2021 performance quite obviously didn’t change the computer’s mind. His comp list is almost entirely elite pitchers in their prime, with names like Roger Clemens, Jose Rijo, Camilo Pascual, Roy Oswalt, John Smoltz, Ron Guidry, and Orel Hershiser peppering the top 10. His top comp, Kevin Appier, is probably better than you remember. Go ahead and click. I’ll wait, since that’s how writing works.

Brandon Woodruff is nearly on Burnes’ level and, almost as important, has now also shown that he can maintain his health for a full load of innings. If Freddy Peralta can throw at least 160 or so innings, he’s a projected All-Star as well. ZiPS loves the team’s depth after the top three as well. The computer would really like to see Aaron Ashby stretched out more than the team seems inclined to, but Adrian Houser, Eric Lauer, and Ethan Small all project as average or better. ZiPS even holds out hope for Josh Lindblom. While Milwaukee could pick up another starting pitcher, I think offensive additions are more crucial now, a reversal of the situation from a few years ago.

Like the rotation, the bullpen projects near the top of baseball. Of the quartet of Ashby, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Jake Cousins, Cousins has the worst ERA+ projection at a very impressive 135 (Ashby’s at 137 as a full-time reliever). The depth chart projection for the relievers would be even better if not for the fact that ZiPS believes that a back-end of the bullpen of Hoby Milner, Angel Perdomo, and Luke Barker would be considerably more effective than Trevor Gott, Jandel Gustave, and J.C. Mejía.

Overall, I think the Brewers are in a race with the Cardinals. I’d probably give a slight edge to St. Louis, but the Brewers possibly have more upside thanks to the pitching, especially in a postseason scenario. And there’s still time remaining for improvements to be made in free agency part deux.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.