2022 ZiPS Projections: Texas Rangers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers.

Batters

If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters’ projections. You start with two easy Hall of Famers and then about 40 seconds later, you’re reassembling the late-80s Braves. Now, the late-80s Braves eventually became the 90s Braves, something the Rangers are no doubt striving for, but getting from Point A to Point B isn’t a route you can just put into your car’s navigation system.

Signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is a great place to begin, though. Seager’s health record hasn’t been perfect, but it hasn’t been Eric Davis-like, either, and he still has a couple of seasons left of his 20s. Semien is a few years older, but after rightfully being a big part of the American League MVP race in two of the last three seasons, he starts off on a pretty high pedestal.

But when I say “begin,” I absolutely mean “begin.” The core of the Texas lineup outside of those two monster free agent signings is very weak, and most of these players are unlikely to be a significant part of the offense by the time the Rangers are actually a serious contender. Seager and Semien help today, but tomorrow is still the bigger draw.

Last year in this very space, I warned readers not be too distressed by the computer’s very bearish projection for Josh Jung. After all, with no 2020 time, his professional career consisted of about six weeks of middling play in the low minors. Jung turned out to be just fine in 2021, hitting a combined .326/.398/.592 in his stops at Frisco and Round Rock, completely shrugging off a stress fracture in his foot. His projection has improved by leaps and bounds compared to last year’s prognostication, to the point that he’s already projected to be a league-average player at third and one of the players who ought to still be in Arlington when the Rangers have their breakout. The fourth member of the infield, Nathaniel Lowe, also gets a projection that puts him in the middle-of-the-pack among first basemen.

While Texas’ infield is coming around, there’s still a lot to worry about in the outfield. Nobody in the left field hydra projects to carry their weight, and Kole Calhoun isn’t likely to be an answer in right. Adolis García hit for tremendous power in 2021, but he’s rather limited offensively outside of the dingers, and last year may represent his high-water mark. Leody Taveras was abysmal at the beginning of the season as the starting center fielder and was rightfully demoted, but he did enough in the minors — his power burst was particularly encouraging — to salvage his season overall.

Pitchers

Imagine the offensive projections, but with no additions comparable to Seager or Semien, and you basically end up with the pitching projections. I’m a fan of Jon Gray — ZiPS has always been on that particular train — but he’s “merely” a solid number-two starter rather than the plug-and-play ace that represented his upside back in his prospect days. Signing him of course improves things, but after Gray and Dane Dunning, the rotation looks incredibly shallow and is missing the kind of short-term upside that could get Texas to .500 in 2022. I wouldn’t call Glenn Otto’s projection terrific, but it may be the most interesting of the remaining starting pitcher projections, with the computer pegging him as an acceptable-if-unexciting mid-rotation starter. Otto doesn’t throw particularly hard and his repertoire isn’t terribly varied, but he ought to be able to eat some innings, a skill a rebuilding team can use. ZiPS doesn’t see much in the way of upside, however.

Relievers start to get interesting once they hit the 120 ERA+ range, but ZiPS doesn’t project any reliever here as a coin flip to hit that threshold. The closest is Brett Martin, a pitcher ZiPS thinks will have a much better strikeout rate than he did in 2021, as his various contact measures aren’t consistent with a pitcher who struggled to punch out batters last season. A post-Tommy John surgery José Leclerc still projects well, but the exact timeframe of his return is uncertain, and in any case, it’s probably not in Texas’ interest to push him to come back too quickly. If treated as a reliever-only — ZiPS still gives him a handful of starts based on his earlier career — John King projects in the same range as Leclerc and Martin, with a 4.02 ERA (111 ERA+). Some may be disappointed by Joe Barlow’s projection after his recent success, but it’s hard to expect any projection system to go all-in on a reliever based on a single season.

Texas hasn’t given any indication that they’re done spending, and the rotation especially may be very different come Opening Day. But how different should it be? Most of the most interesting starting pitchers are already gone, and at this point, I rather see what Otto, Spencer Howard, Cole Winn, and Brock Burke can do than go all-in to try to hit .500. Texas’ previous rebuild, which they attempted to execute very quickly, failed miserably, and I’d hate to see them try to hotshot contention simply because they’ve made a few big signings. The 2022 Rangers are almost certainly better than the 2021 Rangers, but patience is still a necessity.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Marcus Semien R 31 2B 685 613 103 165 34 3 32 84 67 128 13 4
Corey Seager L 28 SS 584 522 92 152 34 2 26 92 53 97 5 0
Josh Jung R 24 3B 491 448 54 118 28 1 17 47 33 107 5 2
Isiah Kiner-Falefa R 27 SS 647 605 73 168 23 5 9 46 29 88 20 6
Nathaniel Lowe L 26 1B 621 540 79 143 26 2 22 77 75 150 6 0
Adolis García R 29 CF 581 545 72 129 26 3 28 87 26 172 13 6
Andy Ibáñez R 29 2B 459 423 56 113 23 2 13 47 29 69 2 3
Nick Solak R 27 2B 618 557 75 145 24 2 16 69 44 130 8 4
Josh H. Smith L 24 SS 371 336 36 84 15 2 9 27 26 78 14 3
Jonah Heim B 27 C 339 311 33 75 15 0 7 33 22 58 1 1
Leody Taveras B 23 CF 573 514 68 115 22 4 16 54 46 148 22 6
Yohel Pozo R 25 C 432 411 47 106 20 1 12 49 15 60 1 1
Yonny Hernandez B 24 3B 459 394 51 95 14 2 2 24 53 84 26 12
Kole Calhoun L 34 RF 425 377 55 87 17 1 19 50 41 101 3 1
Ronald Guzmán L 27 1B 423 378 48 86 21 1 17 52 37 120 1 1
Billy McKinney L 27 RF 370 328 43 73 17 4 12 35 37 94 2 1
Dustin Harris L 22 1B 482 443 67 118 18 1 14 58 29 90 13 2
Ryan Dorow R 26 SS 457 410 45 87 16 1 11 37 36 133 4 2
Meibrys Viloria L 25 C 368 330 36 72 14 1 8 30 30 106 2 2
Justin Foscue R 23 2B 300 273 37 62 14 1 10 38 20 80 1 1
Charlie Culberson R 33 3B 246 226 25 56 12 2 6 24 14 60 5 1
Jose Trevino R 29 C 317 299 30 72 17 0 6 31 12 56 1 1
Zach Reks L 28 RF 428 381 54 89 17 1 15 50 39 128 1 1
Brock Holt L 34 3B 286 256 28 62 13 1 3 24 25 56 4 2
Willie Calhoun L 27 LF 422 386 47 99 19 2 15 47 31 60 1 1
Jax Biggers L 25 2B 337 308 38 70 11 1 4 25 21 64 10 4
John Hicks R 32 C 301 283 33 66 13 1 11 37 15 87 3 1
David Garcia B 22 C 334 313 42 72 13 0 6 30 16 80 0 0
Davis Wendzel R 25 3B 271 245 32 53 10 0 6 25 19 67 1 2
Matt Whatley R 26 C 344 307 32 61 10 1 5 21 28 95 9 5
Blaine Crim R 25 1B 434 404 51 103 17 1 14 50 22 95 1 0
Ezequiel Duran R 23 2B 477 439 56 99 18 2 12 47 27 127 11 5
Bubba Thompson R 24 CF 442 414 40 95 18 4 11 37 22 120 16 5
Josh Stowers R 25 RF 392 351 43 71 14 1 11 38 33 127 16 6
Sherten Apostel R 23 3B 356 324 40 71 13 2 10 35 25 102 0 0
Eli White R 28 LF 394 356 45 77 14 3 10 33 30 114 8 4
Sam Huff R 24 1B 410 382 44 85 15 1 15 43 22 144 2 3
Miguel Aparicio L 23 LF 329 302 37 69 12 2 10 36 17 77 3 2
Jake Hoover R 24 3B 163 146 15 26 7 1 1 10 13 52 4 1
J.P. Martinez L 26 CF 373 340 39 69 13 2 7 29 27 126 14 3
Steele Walker L 25 RF 495 454 56 103 21 3 10 48 30 106 8 5
DJ Peters R 26 CF 479 429 53 85 16 2 17 51 36 169 2 1
Trevor Hauver L 23 2B 465 421 62 94 16 1 13 47 40 129 1 0
Jake Guenther L 25 RF 342 308 43 70 11 0 6 29 22 72 2 2
Jack Kruger R 27 C 297 278 28 62 10 1 4 22 15 66 2 2
Diosbel Arias R 25 1B 472 435 55 105 18 2 5 37 30 101 3 2
Elier Hernandez R 27 RF 435 404 45 85 14 1 10 40 22 123 5 3
Carl Chester R 26 RF 415 388 38 75 13 2 6 32 20 130 8 6

Batters – Advanced
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Marcus Semien .269 .342 .491 120 .222 .294 6.3 6 4.7 Ryne Sandberg
Corey Seager .291 .358 .513 130 .222 .316 7.1 -1 4.5 Cal Ripken Jr.
Josh Jung .263 .322 .444 103 .181 .312 5.3 4 2.2 Joe Crede
Isiah Kiner-Falefa .278 .320 .377 87 .099 .313 4.7 4 2.2 Rafael Ramirez
Nathaniel Lowe .265 .356 .443 113 .178 .329 5.9 -2 2.1 Jeremy Giambi
Adolis García .237 .279 .450 91 .213 .293 4.5 6 1.8 Dante Bichette
Andy Ibáñez .267 .317 .423 97 .156 .293 4.8 5 1.8 Jeff Treadway
Nick Solak .260 .326 .397 93 .136 .314 4.7 -4 1.3 Hubie Brooks
Josh H. Smith .250 .316 .387 88 .137 .301 4.7 0 1.1 Ron Wotus
Jonah Heim .241 .293 .357 74 .116 .276 3.7 8 1.1 John Flaherty
Leody Taveras .224 .289 .375 77 .152 .283 4.0 7 1.1 LeJon Powell
Yohel Pozo .258 .285 .399 81 .141 .277 4.1 3 1.1 Bengie Molina
Yonny Hernandez .241 .344 .302 77 .061 .302 3.7 5 1.0 Derrel Thomas
Kole Calhoun .231 .311 .432 97 .202 .265 4.7 1 0.8 Jeromy Burnitz
Ronald Guzmán .228 .303 .423 92 .196 .286 4.4 3 0.6 Todd Mensik
Billy McKinney .223 .304 .409 89 .186 .275 4.3 3 0.5 Rich Butler
Dustin Harris .266 .315 .406 92 .140 .307 4.9 0 0.5 Shawn Green
Ryan Dorow .212 .284 .337 66 .124 .286 3.3 5 0.4 Marc Mirizzi
Meibrys Viloria .218 .290 .339 69 .121 .296 3.3 2 0.3 Paul Bako
Justin Foscue .227 .291 .396 82 .168 .284 4.0 -1 0.3 Tim Teufel
Charlie Culberson .248 .296 .398 84 .150 .313 4.4 -1 0.3 Shane Halter
Jose Trevino .241 .267 .358 66 .117 .278 3.4 4 0.3 John Purdom
Zach Reks .234 .311 .402 90 .168 .311 4.4 -2 0.2 Doug Deeds
Brock Holt .242 .315 .336 75 .094 .299 3.8 0 0.1 Jerry Royster
Willie Calhoun .256 .315 .433 98 .176 .270 4.9 -6 0.1 Tim Norrid
Jax Biggers .227 .278 .308 58 .081 .275 3.1 5 -0.1 Matt Kata
John Hicks .233 .273 .403 78 .170 .297 3.9 -6 -0.1 Izzy Molina
David Garcia .230 .268 .329 59 .099 .291 3.1 2 -0.1 Carlos Zayas
Davis Wendzel .216 .285 .331 65 .114 .273 3.1 2 -0.1 Jose Valdez
Matt Whatley .199 .273 .287 51 .088 .271 2.6 4 -0.2 Brian Moon
Blaine Crim .255 .303 .406 88 .151 .302 4.5 -3 -0.2 Kendrys Morales
Ezequiel Duran .226 .276 .358 69 .132 .290 3.5 0 -0.2 Nick Green
Bubba Thompson .229 .272 .372 71 .143 .297 3.7 -2 -0.2 Joe Mikulik
Josh Stowers .202 .277 .342 65 .140 .282 3.3 5 -0.2 Eddie Lee
Sherten Apostel .219 .282 .364 72 .145 .288 3.5 -2 -0.2 Brad Seitzer
Eli White .216 .289 .357 73 .140 .289 3.6 2 -0.3 Nathan Panther
Sam Huff .223 .271 .385 74 .162 .314 3.5 4 -0.4 Bill Haselman
Miguel Aparicio .228 .276 .381 74 .152 .274 3.6 -1 -0.5 Shawn Whalen
Jake Hoover .178 .253 .260 39 .082 .269 2.3 0 -0.6 Pat Osborn
J.P. Martinez .203 .271 .315 57 .112 .300 3.1 -1 -0.6 Charles Hillemann
Steele Walker .227 .280 .352 69 .126 .275 3.4 3 -0.6 Erold Andrus
DJ Peters .198 .272 .364 69 .166 .280 3.3 -4 -0.6 Victor Ferrante
Trevor Hauver .223 .293 .359 74 .135 .290 3.7 -11 -0.9 Greg David
Jake Guenther .227 .292 .321 65 .094 .278 3.2 -1 -0.9 Kurt Beamesderfer
Jack Kruger .223 .269 .309 55 .086 .279 2.8 -5 -0.9 David Duff
Diosbel Arias .241 .291 .326 66 .085 .304 3.4 -1 -1.2 Brian Rupp
Elier Hernandez .210 .259 .324 55 .114 .277 2.8 -6 -2.1 Jason Aspito
Carl Chester .193 .237 .284 39 .090 .274 2.1 2 -2.2 Alex Ahumada

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO FIP
Jon Gray R 30 10 9 4.16 28 28 145.0 135 67 19 58 154 4.08
Dane Dunning R 27 7 6 4.27 25 23 109.7 111 52 13 38 101 4.08
Glenn Otto R 26 7 8 4.73 22 21 102.7 102 54 13 51 103 4.49
Zak Kent R 24 6 6 4.57 20 15 82.7 84 42 11 30 71 4.46
Cody Bradford L 24 5 5 4.81 21 21 97.3 103 52 15 31 81 4.63
Cole Winn R 22 4 4 4.68 23 23 82.7 80 43 11 37 77 4.57
Spencer Howard R 25 4 4 4.66 22 22 77.3 75 40 11 32 80 4.36
Brock Burke L 25 4 4 4.77 22 21 83.0 85 44 13 31 77 4.63
Yerry Rodriguez R 24 4 4 4.72 28 19 82.0 82 43 11 33 72 4.56
Kohei Arihara R 29 7 8 5.07 19 19 103.0 108 58 19 31 87 4.94
John King L 27 6 5 4.38 26 6 61.7 63 30 8 20 54 4.33
Mike Foltynewicz R 30 7 9 5.28 27 25 136.3 141 80 27 46 107 5.33
Brett Martin L 27 4 3 3.94 64 0 64.0 66 28 7 18 53 3.88
Tim Brennan R 25 5 5 4.96 15 14 69.0 81 38 9 16 35 4.69
José Leclerc R 28 3 3 4.01 54 0 51.7 40 23 7 28 69 4.13
A.J. Alexy R 24 4 4 5.02 20 14 75.3 72 42 10 41 68 4.89
Jake Latz L 26 3 3 5.18 21 19 88.7 92 51 14 41 79 5.01
Ronny Henriquez R 22 6 7 5.22 22 17 89.7 97 52 16 31 72 5.06
Jonathan Hernández R 25 7 9 5.20 39 16 105.7 110 61 16 52 94 5.02
Hunter Wood R 28 2 2 3.92 41 0 39.0 36 17 5 14 40 3.95
Drew Anderson R 28 5 6 5.25 22 13 82.3 85 48 13 37 73 4.95
Sam Gaviglio R 32 2 2 4.50 31 2 54.0 55 27 8 16 45 4.44
Collin Wiles R 28 4 5 5.25 21 11 72.0 79 42 13 23 58 5.04
Josh Sborz R 28 4 3 4.32 60 0 58.3 51 28 9 25 71 4.09
Cole Ragans L 24 3 4 5.38 20 18 77.0 84 46 12 36 57 5.28
Kyle Cody R 27 1 1 4.30 6 2 14.7 14 7 2 6 14 4.48
Daniel Robert R 27 1 1 4.12 17 0 24.0 22 11 3 9 25 3.97
Kolby Allard L 24 7 9 5.49 31 19 121.3 130 74 24 39 99 5.18
Noah Bremer R 26 4 5 5.35 20 9 65.7 73 39 10 28 46 5.22
Chase Anderson R 34 4 6 5.53 25 20 94.3 101 58 20 37 77 5.64
Tyson Miller R 26 5 7 5.50 25 17 86.7 93 53 16 36 73 5.28
Scott Engler R 25 2 2 4.71 39 1 57.3 56 30 7 28 54 4.51
Justin Anderson R 29 1 1 4.50 39 0 36.0 30 18 4 24 44 4.35
Taylor Hearn L 27 5 6 5.34 37 11 92.7 93 55 17 43 90 5.14
Hyeon-Jong Yang 양현종 L 34 2 3 5.48 19 11 69.0 78 42 14 23 51 5.47
Spencer Patton R 34 3 3 4.60 49 0 47.0 44 24 7 20 47 4.46
Dennis Santana R 26 4 5 5.13 52 7 73.7 71 42 11 39 74 4.90
David Kubiak R 32 1 2 5.47 6 5 26.3 29 16 5 10 20 5.38
Stephen Villines R 26 4 4 4.89 33 1 49.7 52 27 7 19 40 4.73
Tyler Thomas L 26 3 4 5.16 29 3 59.3 63 34 9 26 49 4.97
Kelvin Gonzalez R 24 2 2 4.79 19 0 20.7 20 11 3 10 20 4.58
Sal Mendez L 27 4 6 5.38 28 6 73.7 82 44 11 34 50 5.31
Joe Barlow R 26 2 2 4.82 49 0 46.7 40 25 7 27 51 4.81
Demarcus Evans R 25 2 2 4.84 45 0 48.3 43 26 8 28 57 4.90
Chase Lee R 23 0 1 5.09 15 0 17.7 17 10 3 7 19 4.60
Buck Farmer R 31 3 3 4.98 61 0 59.7 60 33 10 28 57 5.06
Alex Speas R 24 2 3 5.82 15 1 17.0 17 11 2 15 17 5.53
Ryder Ryan R 27 4 4 5.05 37 0 46.3 47 26 7 22 42 4.89
Edwar Colina R 25 4 6 5.84 20 15 91.0 98 59 19 45 82 5.71
Nick Snyder L 24 1 2 5.23 31 0 31.0 31 18 5 18 29 5.34
Hever Bueno R 27 4 4 5.13 32 0 47.3 49 27 6 24 39 4.89
Matt Bush R 36 0 0 6.23 13 0 13.0 14 9 3 7 13 5.80
Jason Bahr R 27 4 6 5.99 23 14 70.7 76 47 13 42 61 5.80
Fernery Ozuna R 26 4 5 5.40 33 0 45.0 49 27 8 17 35 5.20
Jesus Tinoco R 27 2 3 5.43 45 1 61.3 64 37 11 32 53 5.50
Jacob Lemoine R 28 4 5 5.51 44 1 50.7 56 31 8 26 36 5.53
James Jones L 33 1 2 5.85 28 0 32.3 34 21 6 19 28 5.81
Blake Bass R 29 3 4 5.82 31 1 43.3 47 28 7 25 33 5.70
Tai Tiedemann R 26 3 4 6.12 26 3 57.3 67 39 10 30 34 6.04
Wes Benjamin L 28 4 6 6.29 27 15 87.3 104 61 20 39 66 6.12

Pitchers – Advanced
Player K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ ERA- WAR No. 1 Comp
Jon Gray 9.6 3.6 1.2 9.3% 24.7% .300 108 93 2.3 Juan Guzman
Dane Dunning 8.3 3.1 1.1 8.0% 21.2% .308 105 95 1.6 Storm Davis
Glenn Otto 9.0 4.5 1.1 11.1% 22.4% .310 95 106 1.0 Bruce Berenyi
Zak Kent 7.7 3.3 1.2 8.3% 19.7% .299 98 102 0.9 David Weathers
Cody Bradford 7.5 2.9 1.4 7.3% 19.1% .301 93 107 0.9 Manny Parra
Cole Winn 8.4 4.0 1.2 10.2% 21.2% .295 96 105 0.9 Jaret Wright
Spencer Howard 9.3 3.7 1.3 9.5% 23.7% .303 96 104 0.8 Angel Guzman
Brock Burke 8.3 3.4 1.4 8.5% 21.2% .303 94 107 0.8 Trevor Cobb
Yerry Rodriguez 7.9 3.6 1.2 9.2% 20.0% .297 95 105 0.8 Antonio Alfonseca
Kohei Arihara 7.6 2.7 1.7 7.0% 19.6% .294 88 113 0.7 Roy Smith
John King 7.9 2.9 1.2 7.4% 20.1% .302 102 98 0.7 Mike Jeffcoat
Mike Foltynewicz 7.1 3.0 1.8 7.8% 18.1% .281 85 118 0.6 Paul Byrd
Brett Martin 7.5 2.5 1.0 6.6% 19.4% .306 114 88 0.5 Larry Casian
Tim Brennan 4.6 2.1 1.2 5.3% 11.6% .303 90 111 0.5 Rick Wise
José Leclerc 12.0 4.9 1.2 12.5% 30.8% .284 112 90 0.5 Eric Plunk
A.J. Alexy 8.1 4.9 1.2 12.1% 20.1% .288 89 112 0.5 Eric King
Jake Latz 8.0 4.2 1.4 10.3% 19.8% .301 86 116 0.5 Brandon Claussen
Ronny Henriquez 7.2 3.1 1.6 7.9% 18.3% .299 86 117 0.4 Mike Wood
Jonathan Hernández 8.0 4.4 1.4 10.9% 19.7% .304 86 116 0.4 Luis Aquino
Hunter Wood 9.2 3.2 1.2 8.5% 24.2% .295 114 88 0.4 Danny Patterson
Drew Anderson 8.0 4.0 1.4 10.1% 19.9% .300 85 117 0.3 Eric Junge
Sam Gaviglio 7.5 2.7 1.3 6.9% 19.5% .294 99 101 0.3 Bob Wells
Collin Wiles 7.3 2.9 1.6 7.3% 18.3% .301 85 117 0.3 Kyle Snyder
Josh Sborz 11.0 3.9 1.4 10.1% 28.6% .296 104 97 0.3 Chris Schroder
Cole Ragans 6.7 4.2 1.4 10.3% 16.3% .300 83 120 0.3 Brian Bohanon
Kyle Cody 8.6 3.7 1.2 9.4% 21.9% .293 104 96 0.2 Tom Mastny
Daniel Robert 9.4 3.4 1.1 8.8% 24.5% .297 108 92 0.2 Mark Huismann
Kolby Allard 7.3 2.9 1.8 7.4% 18.8% .293 82 123 0.2 Joel Adamson
Noah Bremer 6.3 3.8 1.4 9.4% 15.5% .301 84 119 0.1 Jason Scobie
Chase Anderson 7.3 3.5 1.9 8.8% 18.4% .289 81 124 0.1 Pat Hentgen
Tyson Miller 7.6 3.7 1.7 9.3% 18.9% .298 81 123 0.1 Juan Mateo
Scott Engler 8.5 4.4 1.1 11.0% 21.2% .301 95 105 0.1 Bill Snyder
Justin Anderson 11.0 6.0 1.0 14.8% 27.2% .295 99 101 0.1 Mark Clear
Taylor Hearn 8.7 4.2 1.7 10.4% 21.8% .295 84 119 0.1 Steve Rosenberg
Hyeon-Jong Yang 6.7 3.0 1.8 7.5% 16.7% .298 82 122 0.1 Buzz Oliver
Spencer Patton 9.0 3.8 1.3 9.9% 23.2% .289 97 103 0.1 Joe Borowski
Dennis Santana 9.0 4.8 1.3 11.8% 22.4% .297 87 115 0.1 Chad Fox
David Kubiak 6.8 3.4 1.7 8.5% 17.1% .296 82 122 0.1 Sean Bergman
Stephen Villines 7.2 3.4 1.3 8.7% 18.3% .300 91 109 0.0 Jeff Tam
Tyler Thomas 7.4 3.9 1.4 9.8% 18.4% .302 87 115 0.0 Rich Scalamandre
Kelvin Gonzalez 8.7 4.4 1.3 11.0% 22.0% .293 93 107 0.0 Bill Snyder
Sal Mendez 6.1 4.2 1.3 10.1% 14.9% .301 83 120 0.0 Jake Chapman
Joe Barlow 9.8 5.2 1.4 13.1% 24.8% .277 93 108 0.0 Doug Bochtler
Demarcus Evans 10.6 5.2 1.5 13.0% 26.4% .292 92 108 0.0 Brad Voyles
Chase Lee 9.7 3.6 1.5 9.1% 24.7% .298 88 114 -0.1 Steve Chitren
Buck Farmer 8.6 4.2 1.5 10.5% 21.3% .298 90 111 -0.1 David Lee
Alex Speas 9.0 7.9 1.1 18.1% 20.5% .313 77 130 -0.1 Rich Pratt
Ryder Ryan 8.2 4.3 1.4 10.6% 20.3% .299 89 113 -0.1 Steve Ellsworth
Edwar Colina 8.1 4.5 1.9 10.9% 19.8% .299 77 130 -0.2 Dave Gil
Nick Snyder 8.4 5.2 1.5 12.7% 20.4% .295 86 117 -0.2 Matt Garza
Hever Bueno 7.4 4.6 1.1 11.2% 18.2% .303 87 115 -0.2 Scott Gay
Matt Bush 9.0 4.8 2.1 11.9% 22.0% .306 72 139 -0.2 Don Aase
Jason Bahr 7.8 5.3 1.7 12.8% 18.5% .301 75 134 -0.3 Ivan Montane
Fernery Ozuna 7.0 3.4 1.6 8.5% 17.5% .297 83 121 -0.3 Jeremy Ward
Jesus Tinoco 7.8 4.7 1.6 11.5% 19.0% .294 82 121 -0.3 Joe Borowski
Jacob Lemoine 6.4 4.6 1.4 11.2% 15.5% .300 81 123 -0.3 Greg Bauer
James Jones 7.8 5.3 1.7 12.7% 18.7% .295 77 131 -0.4 Mike Mohler
Blake Bass 6.9 5.2 1.5 12.4% 16.3% .299 77 130 -0.4 Jarod Juelsgaard
Tai Tiedemann 5.3 4.7 1.6 11.2% 12.7% .300 73 137 -0.6 Jeremy Salyers
Wes Benjamin 6.8 4.0 2.1 9.7% 16.4% .308 71 140 -0.6 Tommy Phelps

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2022 due to injury, and players who were released in 2021. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a big band orchestra that only plays nu-metal versions of baroque cantatas, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.36, similar to the post-June substance-enforcement environment.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2022.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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timmer
4 months ago

Sandberg & Ripken comps are very fun to see

MikeSmember
4 months ago
Reply to  timmer

Semien pretty much has to have Cal Ripken’s mid-30’s for that contract to make any sense unless they are planning on doing a lot more this year or next. The Rangers will have paid him $51M before they have a chance to be relevant and will be hoping he doesn’t decline by the time they are any good.

bohknowsbmore
4 months ago
Reply to  timmer

I’m a little confused how Seager gets the Cal comp there. Cal had 43.3 fWAR through his age-27 season vs. 23.7 for Seager. That includes three seasons (8.5, 9.8, 6.9) that meet or significantly top Seager’s best season (6.9). Is it just that we’re in the land of extreme comps at that point to begin with?

thebearproofsuit
4 months ago
Reply to  bohknowsbmore

I think it was Seager’s 27 consecutive game streak that cinched the comp.

averagejoe15member
4 months ago
Reply to  bohknowsbmore

Comps are on offensive numbers not WAR