ZiPS 2021 Projections: Tampa Bay Rays

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Tampa Bay Rays.

Batters

Whatever else you want to say about the Tampa Bay Rays, you can’t deny that there’s a consistent underlying structure to their rosters. They rarely have hitters ticketed for outright superstar seasons, but they always boast a stupendous amount of depth, with a horde of players every year projected to be worth between one and four wins. From 2014-2020 (the original, pre-pandemic version), ZiPS projected 185 player-seasons at four wins or greater, 69 of which started at five wins. Just five of those player-seasons belonged to Rays, and only one of those five was projected for more than 5 WAR (Evan Longoria’s 5.2 in 2014). A few teams did worse, but with the exception of the Minnesota Twins, they were all near the bottom of baseball in WAR over those seasons, while the Rays were a solid 11th.

To the Rays’ credit, this team construction reflects an understanding of their win condition. The front office doesn’t get to choose its budgets, so to win consistently on the resources it’s given, the team’s rosters practically have to be designed this way. The Rays need to hit on their young pitchers and keep the flow of Joey Wendles and Brandon Lowes and Yandy Díazi moving because they’re simply not going to go out and sign a Gerrit Cole or an Anthony Rendon.

2021 still has a lot of casting yet to do, but you can see this tendency in these projections. Brandon Lowe tops the scale at three wins, but a healthy 16 position players project above the one-win threshold. And even below that mark, there are an awful lot of guys who, while you probably don’t envision them as starters, have some kind of situational strength that gives them an “in” to hang around as useful role players.

Every position on the graphic projects to league-average or better save one: catcher. Mike Zunino hardly gets the most scintillating projection, but the real drag here is the current projected playing time for non-roster invitee Joseph Odom. Odom has a good defensive reputation but rather mixed results, and it shouldn’t be surprising that ZiPS doesn’t think he’ll hit given his .239/.305/.366 line in the minors and an unimpressive stint with the Mariners. I don’t see any big offensive additions in the future, at least via free agency, but I’d be surprised if Zunino’s 2021 timeshare actually ends up being with Odom.

Manuel Margot and Randy Arozarena are two players who definitely get a boost from the fact that ZiPS uses playoff numbers in the projections. Between the 2020 regular and postseason, Arozarena hit 17 homers in 162 plate appearances or about 63 homers per 600 plate appearances. He’s clearly unlikely to maintain a pace quite that torrid, but it would be hard for a performance like this to not move the needle. To move a projection by 80 points of OPS in a quarter-season of playing time is a mighty solid breakout. I remain unsure whether Arozarena will add much in terms of defensive value, but he’s certainly earned the opportunity to succeed or fail in a full-time role.

It’s disappointing that we didn’t get more minor league action for Wander Franco, but he is so far advanced at such a young age that he probably can shrug off a missed development year better than most. ZiPS has projected much better rookie seasons than Franco’s projection here, but none of them were for players who had yet to play in Double-A.

I expect this to be a fairly quiet offseason for the Rays, at least when it comes to the offense. The only free agents were the catchers (Zunino and Kevan Smith) and Hunter Renfroe, who seemed almost superfluous on such a deep roster. Except for a second catcher, this has the look of a fairly “finished” offense.

Pitchers

More than most, the top comps for Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow feel appropriate (Barry Zito, Juan Guzman). Snell has a great curve, and you can see the San Francisco Giants giving him a giant contract someday that doesn’t work out. And like Glasnow, Guzman was an explosive young pitcher who suffered from nagging injuries and spells when he was somewhat erratic. Nobody’s safe from trade when they’re in Tampa, but despite the occasional whispers about a Snell move, I expect both to start 2021 with the Rays in light of the loss of Charlie Morton.

The Rays aren’t going to sign Trevor Bauer, but looking at the rotation, it really feels like they need to make an out-of-organization addition to replace the departed Morton, a key member of the rotation. Michael Wacha was added to the mix on a one-year deal right before these projections hit the printing press, but he’s also not been himself since 2018, and brings more question marks than exclamation points. Neither Snell nor Glasnow possess unblemished health records, and the rotation depth feels a little thin. Brendan McKay’s recovering from a torn labrum, and both his 2021 availability and performance are unknown at this point. Brent Honeywell Jr. is expected to be ready for spring training, but his four elbow surgeries since 2017 outnumber his innings pitched over that span (zero). Even if you’re hopeful about his recovery, you can’t mark down his innings in permanent marker any more than you can McKay’s. Screwball pitchers are supposed to get at least a few years in the majors before ruining their arms!

It’s unclear whether the Rays will really try Ryan Yarbrough as a regular starter, but if they do, he’s still unproven in that role. It’s an opportunity for someone like Josh Fleming, a pitcher whose limited stuff curbs his upside but who could fill a valuable niche as an innings-eater here. Without a depth signing or two, I’d really like to see Shane McClanahan get an extended shot in the rotation, even if it’s only of the “four-inning special” variety. I might like to see that in any case.

The bullpen remains rock-solid, though a couple of the names at the back could use some upgrades. Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, Cody Reed, and Pete Fairbanks all project with an ERA+ north of 120, with Jose Alvarado and non-roster invitee Andrew Kittredge right behind. And that’s with two more relievers close to 120, Aaron Loup and Oliver Drake, being unsigned free agents! ZiPS sees John Curtiss, Ryan Thompson, and Ryan Sherriff as the weak links here. Even without upgrades to the last few players here, though, this bullpen should compete to be the best in baseball.

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.