ZiPS 2021 Projections: Cincinnati Reds

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cincinnati Reds.

Batters

Season Two of Operation: Win Now almost ended like the first one did — outside the playoffs looking in — until the Reds snuck into the postseason by winning 11 of their last 15 games, with all but a Pirates series coming against playoff teams. Cincinnati’s quick playoff exit served to highlight one of the fundamental reasons the team’s reach the last two years has exceeded its grasp. No, the offense isn’t going to be shut out for 22 consecutive innings all that often, as the Braves did in the teams’ Wild Card Series, but the lineup is actively hindering the team. This recent development is the opposite of the traditional 21st century Reds dilemma, but it’s a real issue; Cincinnati has finished 13th and 12th in the NL in runs the last two seasons while playing in a moderate hitters’ park.

In a lot of ways, Cincinnati’s problem is the mirror image of Colorado’s most pressing issue. The Rockies have two MVP candidates at the top of the lineup, but an appalling lack of depth. The Reds, on the other hand, have very few true holes and admirable depth all over the diamond, but a real lack of superstar upside. And without a lot of positions open for the taking without the team being extremely aggressive and giving up on decent players with guaranteed deals, it’s hard to see the Reds flipping that script.

The one exception here is the shortstop position, where Jose Garcia would likely be the starter if the season began today, but likely won’t be when the 2021 season actually gets under way. There’s an unusual amount of shortstop talent out there for the taking — Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Didi Gregorius, and Ha-seong Kim — that could drastically improve a position that doesn’t have an apparent long-term solution otherwise. In an offseason where other NL competitors like the Cubs and Phillies crying poor, this is a golden opportunity for the team to swim against the current and take a real financial risk to get into the second tier of NL contenders.

If the Reds cheap out at short, the improvement opportunities are limited. The team has shown little interest in revisiting Nick Senzel as a shortstop option and Jesse Winker, despite being a beast in 2020, hasn’t established that level of performance as his baseline and is not a good defensive player. Nick Castellanos‘ fielding has improved, but his reputation offensively outstrips his actual contributions. Joey Votto’s comeback year was the second-worst of his career and he’ll turn 38 before next year’s playoffs. Mike Moustakas is Mike Moustakas: an average-plus player overall but on the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to have another gear.

The closest guy to being a star is Eugenio Suárez, but even though his 2020 struggles are unlikely to repeat in 2021, his plate discipline has trended in the wrong direction and his defense at the hot corner isn’t really a plus. Suárez is a terrific middle-of-the-order bat, but Cincinnati needs too much offensive help for a return to his four-win plateau to single-handedly fix things.

Pitchers

It still seems kind of odd from the franchise that until recently had a impressive knack for bringing in veteran pitchers just in time for their breakdown seasons, but the rotation was a team strength and why the Reds made the playoffs in 2020. The problem is, of course, that the team’s Cy Young award winner, Trevor Bauer, is a free agent. Cincy’s first Cy has reconsidered his previous stance that he would only sign one-year contracts, but if the Reds choose not to compete with the rest of league for his long-term services, I hope that at the very least, they test his resolve when it comes to the length of his deal. They could offer him one-year and $40 million, giving him a chance to re-enter the market next offseason without a qualifying offer and, hopefully, a league-wide financial outlook less clouded by COVID-19 and its related economic problems.

Now, the cupboard isn’t bare without Bauer. Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo are ace-quality pitchers themselves, so even a Bauer-less rotation will remain a team strength. But it’s just not quite as strong or as deep without Bauer — Anthony DeSclafani is also a free agent — and the team is vulnerable to an injury or two based on the present roster. I do expect that the Reds will do something here, signing a veteran and maybe offering a rehab deal to someone. After all, what’s the fun of having such highly respected pitching coaches without giving them some challenges?

The bullpen was decidedly “meh” in 2020 and though ZiPS isn’t expecting anyone to truly dominate, the projections do suggest a bit better performance across the board in 2021. ZiPS likes Archie Bradley a lot and thinks his drop-off in strikeouts wasn’t really reflected in the advanced stats. ZiPS has always been suspicious of the departed Robert Stephenson and is a bigger believer in Tejay Antone than I expected.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned, players who will miss 2021 due to injury, and players who were released in 2020. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Finnish industrial death metal fourth-wave ska J-pop band, he’s still listed here intentionally.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. ZiPS is assuming that the designated hitter will continue in force in 2021; if it does not, there will be widespread minor adjustments across the board come April.

ZiPS is agnostic about future playing time by design. For more information about ZiPS, please refer to this article, or get angry at Dan on Twitter or something.