2023 ZiPS Projections: Oakland Athletics

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and next up is the Oakland Athletics.

Batters

Are the A’s the most boring organization in baseball? There are other teams that are in the basement, but the Rockies do outright nuttier things, the Pirates always have a highly interesting player or two, the Tigers bring in the occasional big-name free agent, and the Reds have a few compelling pitchers. Looking around the diamond, the A’s are safely above replacement level nearly everywhere, but outside of a few players, such as Esteury Ruiz, it doesn’t feel like there’s any upside scenario compelling enough to cancel out all of the bland, featureless gray. Not to pick on Jace Peterson, but he feels like a pickup emblematic of this team: he’s cheap and he’s been useful at times, but no matter what happens, he’s likely to just be the Jace Peterson we know.

I do appreciate the A’s trading Sean Murphy the day before I ran the projections, given how teams love to blow up their rosters immediately after I’ve written about them. Truth be told, catcher is likely a strong spot for Oakland. Shea Langeliers — I wonder if he needs to change his name to RingCentral Langeliers — is talented and Manny Piña is a good complement as a veteran with defensive skills who is far from a total zero at the plate. I’d take the slight under on catcher overall simply because Piña’s wrist injury, which ruined his 2022, presents a bit of uncertainty even with ZiPS trying to account for it.

Ruiz’s projection could explode pretty quickly, but ZiPS isn’t ready to go all-in on him after one huge minor league season. And it was definitely a huge one — across three teams, ZiPS translates him at .270/.364/.410, one of the absolute best translations in the minors this year. The problem is that his .171/.194/.257 cup of coffee drags that down quite a bit, even with it only being 36 plate appearances. His combined .263/.354/.399 2022 line is still excellent, but that was a .215/.278/.341 translation the year before. His 2019 doesn’t have much weight at this point, but the .198/.247/.295 translation there hardly pushes things upwards. While it doesn’t affect his park-neutral stats, going to Oakland also takes about 30 points of OPS off the projection he would have received in Milwaukee. If Ruiz repeats his 2022 season exactly, his WAR projection hits the three-win mark in 129 games, with his defense in center field going into the black.

Pitchers

I get a kick out of the dependable-but-unambitious magic the A’s are able to conjure with their rotation. With a few exceptions, such as Frankie Montas, Oakland’s skill with starting pitchers seems to be turning fourth starters into dependable-but-boring number twos and Triple-A talent into acceptable fourth starters. Sawing an assistant in half and successfully picking your card aren’t exciting tricks, but they’re at least an upgrade from the G.O.B. Bluth types. ZiPS is highly intrigued by Ken Waldichuk, and sees Kyle Muller as a legitimate starter, so the rotation probably won’t be all that bad. That’s an improvement over 2022, when the A’s carried an inexpensive rotation that performed far worse than their usual inexpensive rotation; the 3.5 combined WAR was the worst for the team since the 1982 squad. Daulton Jefferies will have a much worse projection when he returns given his surgeries.

The vintage penny-pinching A’s squads usually cobbled together surprisingly solid bullpens, but ZiPS doesn’t see many diamonds in the rough here. As currently projected, this would be one of the worst relief corps in baseball. Probably the most interesting projection here is that of Garrett Acton, who got hit really hard at times in the minors. But pitcher home run rates are extremely volatile, especially for short relievers, and offense was crazy in the Pacific Coast League. His fastball ticked up into the 95-97 mph range in 2022 and he’s a real swing-and-miss pitcher, something the A’s don’t have in abundance.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Tony Kemp L 31 2B 465 405 54 101 20 3 7 35 43 61 9 2
Shea Langeliers R 25 C 488 445 55 100 21 1 18 57 37 139 2 1
Seth Brown L 30 1B 502 456 64 106 24 3 24 64 40 140 7 1
Ramón Laureano R 28 RF 432 385 57 91 22 1 15 42 31 114 11 5
Nick Allen R 24 SS 495 449 50 103 22 2 5 39 34 100 8 4
Esteury Ruiz R 24 CF 522 460 72 109 25 2 10 68 38 117 36 10
Manny Piña R 36 C 173 153 14 33 7 0 6 22 14 36 0 1
Jonah Bride R 27 2B 392 340 41 80 16 2 6 41 39 76 1 1
Vimael Machín L 29 3B 490 435 48 105 21 3 5 39 46 83 2 1
Brett Harris R 25 3B 455 407 49 93 16 1 11 48 33 98 5 3
Kevin Smith R 26 SS 499 457 46 94 23 3 13 51 32 163 8 2
Yonny Hernandez B 25 2B 417 358 50 80 10 3 1 33 45 74 24 8
Sheldon Neuse R 28 3B 451 419 48 98 15 2 10 46 28 123 5 1
Luis Barrera L 27 CF 409 375 41 86 16 5 5 35 28 89 8 3
Kevin Cron R 30 1B 308 277 34 66 14 0 15 42 24 93 0 1
Cal Stevenson L 26 CF 409 356 48 82 13 2 5 30 46 87 10 4
Jace Peterson L 33 3B 358 315 43 72 15 2 7 33 36 84 10 1
Ernie Clement R 27 3B 356 326 37 80 14 2 3 25 20 47 3 3
Matt Davidson R 32 1B 406 364 46 82 15 1 19 58 31 128 0 1
Skye Bolt B 29 CF 277 250 31 57 12 1 7 31 22 75 6 1
Conner Capel L 26 RF 466 421 50 98 18 3 10 47 39 101 9 6
Max Schuemann R 26 CF 455 399 55 84 18 2 5 54 36 121 16 5
Tyler Wade L 28 CF 343 306 50 71 13 2 4 25 30 79 19 6
Ryan Noda L 27 1B 518 444 57 90 19 1 16 63 60 170 8 2
Nate Mondou L 28 2B 429 379 40 85 19 2 4 43 37 90 1 2
Aledmys Díaz R 32 LF 327 299 32 72 16 0 8 36 21 54 1 1
David MacKinnon R 28 1B 389 342 37 78 21 1 8 41 41 87 1 1
Devin Foyle L 26 LF 352 315 37 67 13 3 5 33 30 89 3 3
Zack Gelof R 23 2B 399 364 43 79 14 2 11 38 33 128 6 2
Trenton Brooks L 27 1B 400 358 41 83 23 1 9 41 35 76 1 1
Jeremy Eierman R 26 SS 376 350 35 65 15 2 10 39 19 147 4 3
Denzel Clarke R 23 CF 413 368 43 68 18 3 9 41 36 169 13 3
Stephen Vogt L 38 C 227 203 22 43 11 1 7 24 20 58 1 1
Michael Guldberg R 24 CF 193 173 20 38 7 1 1 17 13 43 3 2
Pablo Reyes R 29 2B 389 356 47 83 22 1 8 39 27 72 7 4
Christian Lopes R 30 2B 329 290 32 60 15 1 5 34 29 95 4 2
William Simoneit R 26 C 321 285 31 59 13 0 5 31 30 93 2 1
Billy McKinney L 28 RF 365 327 38 66 15 3 9 34 33 105 1 1
Cooper Bowman R 23 2B 448 399 48 75 15 1 7 47 36 146 20 3
Chase Calabuig L 27 LF 437 393 41 92 17 1 4 37 39 82 2 1
Jed Lowrie B 39 1B 313 283 30 65 15 0 7 33 27 70 1 1
Jordan Diaz R 22 DH 555 524 50 132 28 1 13 55 24 98 0 1
Logan Davidson B 25 SS 477 432 50 84 17 1 8 38 41 159 2 1
Eric Thames 테임즈 L 36 1B 270 240 26 50 13 1 7 24 24 97 1 1
Jack Winkler R 24 3B 214 198 20 43 8 1 2 18 12 45 2 2
Euribiel Angeles R 21 SS 442 415 35 96 17 2 2 36 17 86 5 5
Alexander Campos R 23 3B 203 178 19 37 5 1 2 17 21 54 1 1
Shane McGuire L 24 C 340 296 24 64 10 2 1 27 33 73 2 1
Chad Pinder R 31 LF 347 325 37 71 17 0 10 36 18 102 1 1
Cristian Pache R 24 CF 468 435 43 93 21 3 9 43 28 131 4 5
Jonny Butler L 24 LF 125 115 10 22 4 1 1 8 9 38 1 1
Drew Swift R 24 SS 232 206 24 37 6 0 1 17 21 74 9 1
Mickey McDonald L 28 CF 386 341 39 75 12 2 2 34 33 100 8 3
Stephen Piscotty R 32 RF 297 272 30 65 11 0 11 37 20 87 2 1
Joshwan Wright R 22 3B 330 309 27 69 13 2 1 25 15 68 3 2
Brent Rooker R 28 LF 417 363 49 76 19 0 16 53 40 135 2 1
Dermis Garcia R 25 1B 420 381 44 74 15 1 16 48 33 169 3 1
Shane Selman R 26 RF 305 275 28 52 11 1 7 30 22 107 1 1
Tyler Soderstrom L 21 1B 527 489 46 107 20 3 16 56 30 148 0 1
JJ Schwarz R 27 C 301 271 21 53 10 0 5 24 27 88 1 1
Vince Fernandez L 27 RF 344 307 41 59 13 3 10 42 26 133 2 1
Cody Thomas L 28 DH 343 315 36 63 15 3 9 36 23 122 1 1
Max Muncy R 20 SS 565 511 48 94 23 2 10 48 43 210 9 4
Marty Bechina R 26 LF 376 341 34 62 16 2 6 37 25 143 3 3
Jared McDonald R 26 C 300 274 19 50 10 0 5 28 15 111 1 1
Kyle McCann L 25 C 409 366 40 65 14 1 11 41 37 168 1 1
Lawrence Butler L 22 RF 397 363 42 71 15 2 8 35 33 142 9 4
Austin Beck R 24 RF 303 285 23 55 11 1 6 27 14 113 2 1
Lazaro Armenteros R 24 LF 341 310 30 56 10 1 7 34 27 172 10 4

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Tony Kemp 465 .249 .330 .365 98 .116 .279 1 1.9 .308
Shea Langeliers 488 .225 .289 .398 93 .173 .285 0 1.9 .297
Seth Brown 502 .232 .297 .456 110 .224 .281 3 1.7 .320
Ramón Laureano 432 .236 .313 .416 105 .179 .297 5 1.7 .317
Nick Allen 495 .229 .287 .321 73 .091 .285 11 1.7 .269
Esteury Ruiz 522 .237 .315 .365 93 .128 .297 -4 1.6 .301
Manny Piña 173 .216 .301 .379 92 .163 .243 7 1.3 .299
Jonah Bride 392 .235 .330 .347 94 .112 .287 -1 1.2 .303
Vimael Machín 490 .241 .317 .338 87 .097 .288 2 1.2 .290
Brett Harris 455 .229 .298 .354 85 .125 .275 3 1.2 .288
Kevin Smith 499 .206 .262 .354 74 .149 .288 5 1.1 .267
Yonny Hernandez 417 .223 .324 .277 74 .053 .279 4 1.1 .278
Sheldon Neuse 451 .234 .284 .351 80 .117 .308 5 1.0 .278
Luis Barrera 409 .229 .284 .339 77 .109 .288 6 1.0 .273
Kevin Cron 308 .238 .305 .451 112 .213 .302 1 1.0 .323
Cal Stevenson 409 .230 .318 .320 83 .090 .292 1 1.0 .287
Jace Peterson 358 .229 .311 .356 90 .127 .290 -1 0.9 .294
Ernie Clement 356 .245 .295 .328 77 .083 .279 7 0.9 .275
Matt Davidson 406 .225 .300 .429 104 .203 .290 1 0.9 .314
Skye Bolt 277 .228 .297 .368 88 .140 .298 1 0.9 .292
Conner Capel 466 .233 .300 .361 88 .128 .284 6 0.8 .291
Max Schuemann 455 .211 .299 .303 73 .093 .289 3 0.7 .273
Tyler Wade 343 .232 .306 .327 81 .095 .300 1 0.7 .281
Ryan Noda 518 .203 .311 .358 90 .155 .287 2 0.6 .297
Nate Mondou 429 .224 .305 .317 78 .092 .284 1 0.6 .279
Aledmys Díaz 327 .241 .300 .375 91 .134 .270 3 0.6 .294
David MacKinnon 389 .228 .314 .365 93 .137 .283 2 0.5 .299
Devin Foyle 352 .213 .290 .321 74 .108 .281 8 0.4 .272
Zack Gelof 399 .217 .283 .357 81 .140 .302 -3 0.3 .281
Trenton Brooks 400 .232 .304 .377 93 .145 .271 0 0.3 .297
Jeremy Eierman 376 .186 .235 .326 57 .140 .285 7 0.3 .244
Denzel Clarke 413 .185 .269 .323 68 .139 .311 2 0.2 .263
Stephen Vogt 227 .212 .282 .379 86 .167 .261 -4 0.2 .285
Michael Guldberg 193 .220 .288 .289 66 .069 .287 3 0.2 .260
Pablo Reyes 389 .233 .293 .368 87 .135 .272 -6 0.2 .289
Christian Lopes 329 .207 .292 .317 74 .110 .289 0 0.2 .273
William Simoneit 321 .207 .293 .305 71 .098 .289 -3 0.2 .270
Billy McKinney 365 .202 .279 .349 78 .147 .268 5 0.1 .274
Cooper Bowman 448 .188 .268 .283 58 .095 .276 4 0.1 .249
Chase Calabuig 437 .234 .307 .313 78 .079 .287 3 0.1 .278
Jed Lowrie 313 .230 .297 .357 85 .127 .282 1 0.1 .288
Jordan Diaz 555 .252 .288 .384 89 .132 .288 0 0.0 .291
Logan Davidson 477 .194 .266 .294 60 .100 .287 2 0.0 .251
Eric Thames 270 .208 .293 .358 84 .150 .316 1 0.0 .285
Jack Winkler 214 .217 .276 .298 64 .081 .272 2 0.0 .257
Euribiel Angeles 442 .231 .269 .296 61 .065 .287 3 0.0 .250
Alexander Campos 203 .208 .300 .281 68 .073 .287 -1 -0.1 .266
Shane McGuire 340 .216 .306 .274 68 .057 .284 -5 -0.1 .266
Chad Pinder 347 .218 .262 .363 76 .145 .286 2 -0.2 .271
Cristian Pache 468 .214 .264 .338 70 .124 .285 0 -0.2 .263
Jonny Butler 125 .191 .248 .270 48 .078 .276 3 -0.2 .231
Drew Swift 232 .180 .264 .223 41 .044 .275 1 -0.3 .228
Mickey McDonald 386 .220 .298 .284 68 .065 .305 -3 -0.3 .265
Stephen Piscotty 297 .239 .296 .401 82 .162 .310 -2 -0.3 .301
Joshwan Wright 330 .223 .265 .288 58 .065 .283 1 -0.5 .246
Brent Rooker 417 .209 .307 .394 98 .185 .283 -13 -0.5 .307
Dermis Garcia 420 .194 .262 .365 76 .171 .296 0 -0.6 .273
Shane Selman 305 .189 .260 .313 62 .124 .280 2 -0.6 .254
Tyler Soderstrom 527 .219 .269 .370 80 .151 .280 1 -0.6 .276
JJ Schwarz 301 .196 .269 .288 59 .092 .270 -6 -0.7 .250
Vince Fernandez 344 .192 .273 .352 76 .160 .299 -3 -0.7 .274
Cody Thomas 343 .200 .259 .352 72 .152 .293 0 -0.7 .266
Max Muncy 565 .184 .255 .295 57 .112 .289 -2 -0.7 .246
Marty Bechina 376 .182 .253 .293 55 .111 .292 3 -1.1 .244
Jared McDonald 300 .182 .237 .274 45 .091 .285 -5 -1.2 .228
Kyle McCann 409 .178 .262 .311 63 .134 .289 -12 -1.2 .256
Lawrence Butler 397 .196 .262 .314 63 .118 .296 -2 -1.2 .254
Austin Beck 303 .193 .234 .302 51 .109 .295 0 -1.3 .235
Lazaro Armenteros 341 .181 .253 .287 54 .106 .374 -5 -1.7 .243

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Tony Kemp Marv Staehle Will Rhymes Breyvic Valera
Shea Langeliers Ed Sprague Bill Nahorodny Dan Graham
Seth Brown Willie Kirkland Franklin Stubbs Ripper Collins
Ramón Laureano Bill Barrett Pepper Martin Brian Goodwin
Nick Allen Kevin Stocker Derrel Thomas Eric Bruntlett
Esteury Ruiz Victor Robles Jermaine Allensworth Mike Davis
Manny Piña Charlie O’Brien Carl Sawatski Erik Kratz
Jonah Bride Ed Giovanola Alex Taveras Charlie Montoyo
Vimael Machín Jeff Gardner Chip Hale Ed Giovanola
Brett Harris Glen Franklin Jason Moler Chris Sabo
Kevin Smith Pat Valaika Jeudy Valdez George Williams
Yonny Hernandez Callix Crabbe Julio Cruz Terrence Freeman
Sheldon Neuse Tommy Shields Kurt Bevacqua Johnny Goryl
Luis Barrera Ben Copeland Marvell Wynne McKay Christensen
Kevin Cron Matt Davidson Mike Ivie Ian Gac
Cal Stevenson Gregor Blanco Scooter Jordan Chris Prieto
Jace Peterson Delino DeShields Alan Bannister Lenny Randle
Ernie Clement Karl Gordon Jesus Merchan Pat Maxwell
Matt Davidson Nick Esasky Wally Post Ron Kittle
Skye Bolt Pat Sheridan Emil Brown Len Gabrielson
Conner Capel Ben Copeland Brock Davis Matt Lawton
Max Schuemann Jacob Brumfield Kyle Johnson Greg Howe
Tyler Wade Alex Cole Ced Landrum Eric Young
Ryan Noda Dick Gernert Bobby Brooks Johnny Lewis
Nate Mondou Carlos Alonso Louis Damman Ron Clark
Aledmys Díaz Joe Schultz Johnny Moore Mickey Brantley
David MacKinnon Bo Dodson Donald Davis Bob DiPietro
Devin Foyle Rich Janeway Mike Harris Shayne Fontana
Zack Gelof Dave Hirtz Ralph Nasif Ian Happ
Trenton Brooks Brock Stassi Mike Lum Rich Poythress
Jeremy Eierman Aaron Sisk Jarek Cunningham Benji Gil
Denzel Clarke Al Smith Garrett Whitley Todd Steverson
Stephen Vogt Buck Martinez Elrod Hendricks Tom Lampkin
Michael Guldberg Carl Loadenthal Jon Jones Larry Reynolds
Pablo Reyes Chris Burke Lou Chiozza Rob Wilfong
Christian Lopes Bob Meacham Drew Sutton Danny Worth 워스
William Simoneit Gene Lamont Bill Fulk Pat Corrales
Billy McKinney Kevin Burns Jeff Guiel George Kopacz
Cooper Bowman William Kuklenski Mica Lewis Max George
Chase Calabuig Scott Tedder Ramon Flores Jorge Cortes
Jed Lowrie Manny Trillo Jay Gibbons Aaron Boone
Jordan Diaz Donald Cardoza Ruben Gonzalez Dominic Smith
Logan Davidson Derek Mitchell Dave Matranga Steve Fanning
Eric Thames Tom Wilson Eric Hinske Bobo Osborne
Jack Winkler Josh Arteaga Steven Halcomb Luis Ortega
Euribiel Angeles Bobby Sturgeon Jose Rondon Oscar Escobar
Alexander Campos John Reid Eddie Rush Alan Ahmady
Shane McGuire A.J. Ellis Doug Mirabelli Jon-Mark Sprowl
Chad Pinder Cito Gaston Palmer Karr Bob Perry
Cristian Pache Mike Dimmel Ryan Cordell Jeff Fiorentino
Jonny Butler Cody Dent Rob Bystrowski Cesar Guillen
Drew Swift Ryan Ferby Manuel Nunez Mike Samuel
Mickey McDonald Brad Coon Bruce Dostal Matt Angle
Stephen Piscotty John Ellis Jim Lindeman Rene Friol
Joshwan Wright Nelson Molina Dan Adams Andruw Monasterio
Brent Rooker Eddie Gates Micah Franklin 프랭클린 Jay Buhner
Dermis Garcia Wayne Belardi Dale Long Jason Stokes
Shane Selman James Sevcik Johermyn Chavez Tyler Kolodny
Tyler Soderstrom Kevin Witt Rico Brogna Daniel Kern
JJ Schwarz Steve Liddle Kirk Pierce Angel Morris
Vince Fernandez Chris Lubanski Jared Walker Mike Rogodzinski
Cody Thomas Chris Lubanski Donald Lutz Tommy Giles
Max Muncy Bill Burgess Ian Desmond Greg Gagne
Marty Bechina George Thomas Emmitt Cohick Bubba Starling
Jared McDonald Greg Conley Mike Wright John Vanden Berg
Kyle McCann Jerry Goff John Stefero George Dierberger
Lawrence Butler Trini House Michael Saunders Korry Howell
Austin Beck Jeremy Todd Devin Shepherd Frank Lucy
Lazaro Armenteros Logan Wood Andrew Dyes Jonah Davis

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Tony Kemp .280 .356 .411 117 2.9 .227 .306 .329 83 0.9
Shea Langeliers .254 .315 .456 116 3.3 .198 .263 .345 72 0.6
Seth Brown .254 .320 .505 127 2.8 .205 .275 .399 90 0.5
Ramón Laureano .262 .335 .465 125 2.8 .211 .288 .366 87 0.8
Nick Allen .251 .307 .356 86 2.6 .205 .262 .287 58 0.7
Esteury Ruiz .261 .340 .417 113 2.9 .211 .289 .324 77 0.4
Manny Piña .243 .325 .438 115 1.8 .186 .275 .318 71 0.9
Jonah Bride .260 .357 .388 111 2.0 .209 .304 .299 75 0.3
Vimael Machín .268 .340 .384 105 2.3 .217 .289 .298 71 0.2
Brett Harris .256 .322 .400 103 2.2 .205 .274 .313 68 0.2
Kevin Smith .231 .287 .401 93 2.4 .182 .236 .304 54 0.0
Yonny Hernandez .245 .351 .305 88 1.9 .195 .296 .244 58 0.1
Sheldon Neuse .261 .312 .395 97 2.1 .211 .259 .310 63 0.0
Luis Barrera .255 .307 .379 93 1.9 .205 .256 .302 60 0.1
Kevin Cron .268 .327 .510 132 1.8 .211 .274 .389 87 0.0
Cal Stevenson .258 .348 .363 101 1.9 .203 .292 .282 64 0.0
Jace Peterson .253 .334 .396 106 1.7 .204 .283 .310 71 0.2
Ernie Clement .274 .324 .366 96 1.7 .217 .265 .288 59 0.1
Matt Davidson .249 .326 .479 124 1.9 .197 .274 .367 83 -0.2
Skye Bolt .256 .325 .414 107 1.5 .203 .270 .319 67 0.2
Conner Capel .260 .329 .406 107 1.9 .207 .274 .318 70 -0.3
Max Schuemann .236 .322 .339 87 1.5 .185 .274 .263 55 -0.3
Tyler Wade .257 .331 .367 98 1.4 .207 .276 .288 61 -0.2
Ryan Noda .227 .332 .406 107 1.6 .178 .282 .310 72 -0.7
Nate Mondou .250 .333 .357 96 1.5 .197 .282 .275 60 -0.4
Aledmys Díaz .267 .327 .418 109 1.4 .212 .275 .324 71 -0.2
David MacKinnon .251 .339 .410 111 1.3 .203 .291 .326 74 -0.4
Devin Foyle .237 .318 .362 93 1.2 .186 .265 .278 57 -0.3
Zack Gelof .238 .306 .406 100 1.3 .192 .259 .312 64 -0.5
Trenton Brooks .258 .328 .422 110 1.2 .202 .278 .330 73 -0.7
Jeremy Eierman .213 .261 .378 79 1.3 .158 .211 .276 39 -0.7
Denzel Clarke .207 .292 .367 86 1.2 .160 .244 .282 51 -0.7
Stephen Vogt .242 .313 .449 110 0.9 .183 .253 .319 63 -0.4
Michael Guldberg .244 .311 .328 81 0.6 .195 .267 .253 51 -0.2
Pablo Reyes .258 .319 .418 106 1.1 .206 .267 .323 67 -0.7
Christian Lopes .237 .319 .364 94 1.0 .185 .266 .280 56 -0.5
William Simoneit .234 .321 .348 88 0.9 .179 .266 .262 51 -0.6
Billy McKinney .227 .307 .397 96 1.0 .178 .251 .308 58 -0.7
Cooper Bowman .215 .292 .331 77 1.2 .162 .242 .250 43 -0.8
Chase Calabuig .261 .332 .349 95 1.0 .208 .280 .280 61 -0.8
Jed Lowrie .260 .326 .405 104 0.8 .198 .266 .308 62 -0.9
Jordan Diaz .276 .312 .428 108 1.3 .226 .261 .339 72 -1.2
Logan Davidson .222 .294 .336 79 1.2 .166 .240 .247 40 -1.1
Eric Thames .238 .324 .413 106 0.7 .180 .266 .305 62 -0.8
Jack Winkler .245 .300 .337 81 0.5 .188 .242 .257 46 -0.5
Euribiel Angeles .257 .293 .329 78 0.9 .208 .245 .262 46 -0.9
Alexander Campos .236 .330 .327 87 0.4 .182 .276 .247 52 -0.5
Shane McGuire .244 .333 .312 88 0.7 .188 .280 .237 52 -0.9
Chad Pinder .244 .287 .405 94 0.5 .192 .235 .315 55 -1.2
Cristian Pache .238 .289 .383 89 0.8 .192 .241 .303 55 -1.2
Jonny Butler .218 .279 .313 69 0.1 .166 .221 .226 31 -0.5
Drew Swift .208 .293 .256 59 0.3 .156 .237 .191 26 -0.7
Mickey McDonald .246 .322 .320 84 0.5 .194 .269 .247 50 -1.2
Stephen Piscotty .268 .328 .463 105 0.6 .211 .267 .339 61 -1.1
Joshwan Wright .251 .291 .332 77 0.3 .196 .239 .251 41 -1.2
Brent Rooker .236 .329 .454 117 0.4 .186 .284 .351 82 -1.3
Dermis Garcia .222 .287 .421 100 0.7 .168 .239 .308 57 -1.6
Shane Selman .215 .283 .361 82 0.2 .165 .235 .269 47 -1.2
Tyler Soderstrom .242 .293 .417 97 0.6 .193 .246 .325 61 -1.9
JJ Schwarz .226 .301 .332 79 0.1 .169 .241 .250 40 -1.4
Vince Fernandez .221 .301 .400 96 0.1 .170 .250 .296 56 -1.5
Cody Thomas .228 .287 .407 94 0.2 .179 .236 .308 54 -1.5
Max Muncy .214 .283 .349 77 0.7 .160 .231 .256 39 -2.0
Marty Bechina .211 .278 .339 75 -0.1 .160 .227 .251 38 -1.9
Jared McDonald .210 .265 .309 62 -0.5 .155 .211 .232 28 -1.9
Kyle McCann .207 .292 .359 83 -0.1 .152 .228 .266 41 -2.3
Lawrence Butler .218 .286 .359 82 -0.2 .174 .239 .275 47 -2.0
Austin Beck .218 .260 .352 73 -0.4 .170 .209 .260 35 -1.9
Lazaro Armenteros .215 .284 .341 76 -0.8 .148 .222 .231 30 -2.8

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
A.J. Puk L 28 4 3 3.71 51 1 60.7 53 25 7 22 68
Domingo Acevedo R 29 4 3 3.75 57 0 57.7 51 24 9 15 57
Ken Waldichuk L 25 6 6 3.79 25 25 111.7 94 47 12 48 123
Garrett Acton R 25 5 4 3.80 46 1 64.0 56 27 8 27 71
JP Sears L 27 5 6 3.84 26 18 100.7 92 43 12 30 96
Zach Jackson R 28 3 3 3.86 47 0 46.7 36 20 5 28 60
Dany Jiménez R 29 4 3 3.89 36 0 39.3 32 17 5 20 48
Kirby Snead L 28 2 2 3.90 50 0 55.3 51 24 5 21 53
Tyler Cyr R 30 2 2 3.91 44 0 46.0 40 20 4 25 48
Daulton Jefferies R 27 3 4 3.92 16 12 66.7 66 29 8 13 51
Chad Smith R 28 2 2 3.92 41 0 43.7 37 19 5 24 48
Austin Pruitt R 33 2 1 3.92 38 3 64.3 65 28 9 13 48
Kyle Muller L 25 7 8 3.93 25 24 123.7 107 54 13 52 128
David Leal L 26 5 6 4.07 21 17 112.7 119 51 14 22 74
Paul Blackburn R 29 6 7 4.09 20 19 105.7 109 48 12 31 81
Collin Wiles R 29 7 9 4.10 25 21 123.0 132 56 16 27 82
Cole Irvin L 29 10 10 4.10 28 27 160.3 167 73 22 33 114
J.T. Ginn R 24 4 5 4.10 19 19 79.0 79 36 8 24 58
Sam Moll L 31 1 2 4.14 45 0 41.3 36 19 4 22 43
Sam Selman L 32 1 1 4.14 40 1 45.7 38 21 5 24 45
Hogan Harris L 26 3 3 4.20 23 21 70.7 60 33 9 37 79
Adrián Martínez R 26 8 9 4.20 27 24 126.3 122 59 16 43 112
Freddy Tarnok R 24 4 4 4.23 23 20 95.7 91 45 13 41 91
Rico Garcia R 29 4 5 4.24 27 12 76.3 76 36 10 32 68
Brent Honeywell Jr. R 28 3 4 4.30 25 10 58.7 59 28 7 20 44
Domingo Tapia R 31 1 2 4.32 41 0 50.0 49 24 5 26 40
Hunter Breault R 24 3 4 4.33 45 0 62.3 67 30 8 18 40
Brian Howard R 28 4 4 4.33 30 13 89.3 92 43 11 36 68
James Kaprielian R 29 6 7 4.34 24 23 122.3 117 59 18 46 102
Jake Walkinshaw R 26 3 3 4.37 17 11 59.7 64 29 8 20 41
Luis Medina R 24 5 6 4.38 23 23 90.3 83 44 9 55 85
Jeff Criswell R 24 6 7 4.40 22 19 106.3 104 52 15 44 86
Jack Cushing R 26 7 8 4.42 21 21 112.0 119 55 15 36 77
Adam Kolarek L 34 2 2 4.44 46 0 46.7 47 23 4 20 31
Norge Ruiz R 29 3 3 4.45 37 0 54.7 57 27 7 20 43
Jared Koenig L 29 6 7 4.45 24 19 115.3 118 57 15 42 88
Colin Peluse R 25 6 8 4.47 21 18 102.7 108 51 14 29 71
Deolis Guerra R 34 1 2 4.50 32 0 40.0 38 20 7 16 41
Ryan Cusick R 23 4 5 4.50 17 14 60.0 58 30 8 30 54
Justin Grimm R 34 2 2 4.54 31 0 35.7 33 18 4 18 36
Adam Oller R 28 5 6 4.56 21 18 94.7 94 48 13 43 77
David McKay R 28 1 2 4.56 38 0 47.3 42 24 6 25 47
Zach Logue L 27 7 9 4.64 26 22 120.3 126 62 18 42 90
Ty Damron L 28 4 6 4.64 24 19 95.0 100 49 12 38 64
Chase Cohen R 26 4 5 4.67 32 6 61.7 62 32 9 34 54
Brock Whittlesey R 26 3 4 4.69 37 0 55.7 61 29 7 18 32
Jack Weisenburger R 25 1 3 4.71 29 0 36.3 32 19 5 26 40
Miguel Romero R 29 2 3 4.71 32 4 57.3 60 30 6 28 35
Jacob Lemoine R 29 2 3 4.72 36 1 47.7 51 25 6 26 32
Royber Salinas R 22 5 7 4.72 24 23 95.3 82 50 12 63 99
Parker Dunshee R 28 5 8 4.73 25 18 99.0 100 52 13 42 70
Jasseel De La Cruz R 26 3 4 4.76 19 12 58.7 59 31 8 29 46
Calvin Coker R 27 1 1 4.76 24 0 34.0 38 18 6 10 22
Chester Pimentel R 27 2 2 4.76 33 0 45.3 41 24 6 29 46
Aaron Brown L 31 3 6 4.80 41 1 54.3 53 29 7 35 49
Bryce Conley R 28 3 5 4.95 30 7 63.7 65 35 9 32 49
Brady Feigl R 27 4 5 5.10 16 14 67.0 71 38 12 32 56
Ryan Castellani R 27 2 5 5.40 22 10 55.0 54 33 7 38 40

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
A.J. Puk 60.7 10.1 3.3 1.0 8.5% 26.3% .295 107 3.75 93 0.5
Domingo Acevedo 57.7 8.9 2.3 1.4 6.3% 23.9% .273 106 4.09 94 0.4
Ken Waldichuk 111.7 9.9 3.9 1.0 10.1% 25.8% .286 105 3.85 95 1.7
Garrett Acton 64.0 10.0 3.8 1.1 9.9% 26.0% .291 105 3.92 96 0.5
JP Sears 100.7 8.6 2.7 1.1 7.2% 22.9% .287 103 3.87 97 1.5
Zach Jackson 46.7 11.6 5.4 1.0 13.5% 28.8% .287 103 3.90 97 0.3
Dany Jiménez 39.3 11.0 4.6 1.1 11.6% 27.7% .284 102 3.89 98 0.3
Kirby Snead 55.3 8.6 3.4 0.8 8.9% 22.5% .297 102 3.77 98 0.3
Tyler Cyr 46.0 9.4 4.9 0.8 12.4% 23.8% .293 101 3.96 99 0.2
Daulton Jefferies 66.7 6.9 1.8 1.1 4.7% 18.4% .287 101 3.95 99 0.9
Chad Smith 43.7 9.9 4.9 1.0 12.3% 24.6% .286 101 4.23 99 0.1
Austin Pruitt 64.3 6.7 1.8 1.3 4.9% 18.0% .286 101 4.18 99 0.4
Kyle Muller 123.7 9.3 3.8 0.9 9.7% 23.8% .286 101 3.83 99 1.8
David Leal 112.7 5.9 1.8 1.1 4.7% 15.7% .292 97 4.25 103 1.4
Paul Blackburn 105.7 6.9 2.6 1.0 6.9% 17.9% .298 97 4.09 103 1.2
Collin Wiles 123.0 6.0 2.0 1.2 5.2% 15.8% .295 97 4.29 103 1.5
Cole Irvin 160.3 6.4 1.9 1.2 4.9% 17.0% .290 97 4.26 103 1.8
J.T. Ginn 79.0 6.6 2.7 0.9 7.1% 17.2% .291 97 4.14 103 0.9
Sam Moll 41.3 9.4 4.8 0.9 12.2% 23.9% .291 96 4.15 104 0.1
Sam Selman 45.7 8.9 4.7 1.0 12.2% 22.8% .270 96 4.45 104 0.1
Hogan Harris 70.7 10.1 4.7 1.1 12.1% 25.7% .285 94 4.40 106 0.8
Adrián Martínez 126.3 8.0 3.1 1.1 7.9% 20.5% .291 94 4.21 106 1.4
Freddy Tarnok 95.7 8.6 3.9 1.2 9.8% 21.8% .292 94 4.46 107 1.0
Rico Garcia 76.3 8.0 3.8 1.2 9.5% 20.2% .297 93 4.37 107 0.6
Brent Honeywell Jr. 58.7 6.8 3.1 1.1 7.9% 17.3% .289 92 4.33 108 0.5
Domingo Tapia 50.0 7.2 4.7 0.9 11.6% 17.9% .293 92 4.59 109 -0.1
Hunter Breault 62.3 5.8 2.6 1.2 6.7% 14.9% .294 92 4.60 109 -0.1
Brian Howard 89.3 6.9 3.6 1.1 9.1% 17.3% .296 92 4.54 109 0.7
James Kaprielian 122.3 7.5 3.4 1.3 8.8% 19.5% .279 91 4.67 109 1.1
Jake Walkinshaw 59.7 6.2 3.0 1.2 7.5% 15.5% .296 91 4.63 110 0.4
Luis Medina 90.3 8.5 5.5 0.9 13.2% 20.3% .291 91 4.56 110 0.8
Jeff Criswell 106.3 7.3 3.7 1.3 9.5% 18.5% .283 90 4.72 111 1.0
Jack Cushing 112.0 6.2 2.9 1.2 7.4% 15.8% .294 90 4.54 111 1.0
Adam Kolarek 46.7 6.0 3.9 0.8 9.8% 15.1% .291 89 4.61 112 -0.1
Norge Ruiz 54.7 7.1 3.3 1.2 8.3% 17.8% .299 89 4.51 112 -0.2
Jared Koenig 115.3 6.9 3.3 1.2 8.4% 17.6% .293 89 4.57 112 0.8
Colin Peluse 102.7 6.2 2.5 1.2 6.6% 16.2% .291 89 4.48 113 0.8
Deolis Guerra 40.0 9.2 3.6 1.6 9.3% 23.8% .290 88 4.73 113 -0.1
Ryan Cusick 60.0 8.1 4.5 1.2 11.1% 19.9% .291 88 4.74 113 0.4
Justin Grimm 35.7 9.1 4.5 1.0 11.0% 22.1% .296 87 4.36 114 -0.1
Adam Oller 94.7 7.3 4.1 1.2 10.3% 18.5% .288 87 4.83 115 0.5
David McKay 47.3 8.9 4.8 1.1 11.9% 22.4% .281 87 4.78 115 -0.1
Zach Logue 120.3 6.7 3.1 1.3 8.0% 17.2% .292 86 4.85 117 0.6
Ty Damron 95.0 6.1 3.6 1.1 9.1% 15.3% .292 85 4.90 117 0.6
Chase Cohen 61.7 7.9 5.0 1.3 12.0% 19.0% .294 85 5.10 118 0.0
Brock Whittlesey 55.7 5.2 2.9 1.1 7.4% 13.2% .293 85 4.82 118 -0.3
Jack Weisenburger 36.3 9.9 6.4 1.2 15.1% 23.3% .287 84 5.05 119 -0.2
Miguel Romero 57.3 5.5 4.4 0.9 10.8% 13.5% .290 84 5.02 119 -0.1
Jacob Lemoine 47.7 6.0 4.9 1.1 11.8% 14.5% .296 84 5.15 119 -0.2
Royber Salinas 95.3 9.3 5.9 1.1 14.4% 22.7% .279 84 4.92 119 0.5
Parker Dunshee 99.0 6.4 3.8 1.2 9.7% 16.2% .284 84 5.02 119 0.4
Jasseel De La Cruz 58.7 7.1 4.4 1.2 10.9% 17.4% .288 83 5.05 120 0.2
Calvin Coker 34.0 5.8 2.6 1.6 6.7% 14.8% .294 83 5.21 120 -0.3
Chester Pimentel 45.3 9.1 5.8 1.2 14.1% 22.3% .287 83 5.09 120 -0.4
Aaron Brown 54.3 8.1 5.8 1.2 14.1% 19.7% .295 83 5.12 121 -0.3
Bryce Conley 63.7 6.9 4.5 1.3 11.1% 17.0% .290 80 5.20 125 -0.1
Brady Feigl 67.0 7.5 4.3 1.6 10.5% 18.4% .296 78 5.38 129 0.0
Ryan Castellani 55.0 6.5 6.2 1.1 14.6% 15.4% .280 73 5.86 136 -0.3

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
A.J. Puk Aaron Fultz Paul Assenmacher Bryan Hickerson 1.2 -0.1 3.00 4.66
Domingo Acevedo Mark Huismann Edward Mujica Luis Vizcaino 0.9 -0.3 3.09 4.69
Ken Waldichuk Tom Gorzelanny Tyler Alexander Sterling Hitchcock 2.6 0.6 3.28 4.55
Garrett Acton Ronald Uviedo Travis Phelps Bubbie Buzachero 1.1 -0.2 3.12 4.72
JP Sears Dick Egan Gary Lucas Woodie Fryman 2.2 0.7 3.31 4.52
Zach Jackson Andrew Brown David Aardsma Karl Best 0.9 -0.4 2.99 5.07
Dany Jiménez Jack Meyer Greg Aquino Larry Sherry 0.7 -0.3 3.10 4.93
Kirby Snead Mike Kusiewicz Ron Meridith Bobby LaFromboise 0.8 -0.2 3.09 4.57
Tyler Cyr Woody Williams Dalier Hinojosa Chris Schroder 0.8 -0.3 3.13 4.89
Daulton Jefferies Steve Blateric Johnny Rutherford Kent Wallace 1.3 0.4 3.46 4.57
Chad Smith Bill Wilson Chad Harville Ryan Garton 0.5 -0.4 3.34 4.85
Austin Pruitt Jose Bautista Vern Ruhle Eddie Fisher 0.8 -0.1 3.41 4.57
Kyle Muller Trevor Wilson Ross Powell Rich Wortham 2.8 0.6 3.36 4.62
David Leal Keith Weiser Evan MacLane Blaine Beatty 2.0 0.7 3.65 4.55
Paul Blackburn Jimmy Ward Dick Drilling Thad Weber 웨버 1.8 0.5 3.66 4.65
Collin Wiles John Butcher Erik Arnesen Nick Blackburn 2.2 0.8 3.64 4.53
Cole Irvin Clayton Richard Scott McGregor Chris Haney 2.7 0.9 3.66 4.63
J.T. Ginn Roger Smithberg Brett Walters Greg Washburn 1.4 0.5 3.63 4.61
Sam Moll Mike Munoz Dave Hamilton Andy Hassler 0.6 -0.5 3.33 5.33
Sam Selman Charlie Manning Antonio Bastardo Tommy Layne 0.5 -0.5 3.44 5.16
Hogan Harris Angel Miranda Matt Riley Tony Cingrani 1.3 0.1 3.62 4.85
Adrián Martínez Buck Farmer Camilo Estevis Kyle McGowin 2.4 0.5 3.63 4.76
Freddy Tarnok Tony Menendez Doug Mlicki Yasuo Kushihara 1.6 0.2 3.74 4.84
Rico Garcia Ed Hobaugh Justin Reid John Waselchuk 1.2 0.0 3.69 4.88
Brent Honeywell Jr. Justin Pope Brandon Agamennone Justin Souza 0.9 0.1 3.74 4.88
Domingo Tapia Jeff Bennett Hal Reniff Bob Stoddard 0.3 -0.5 3.75 5.08
Hunter Breault David Herndon Chuck Crumpton Ethan Cole 0.4 -0.5 3.78 4.88
Brian Howard Terry Doyle Chuck Churn Jarrett Grube 1.3 0.0 3.86 4.95
James Kaprielian Taylor Clarke Jack Armstrong Jason Johnson 1.8 0.1 3.88 4.98
Jake Walkinshaw Patrick Centilli Jeff Jamnik Steve Parris 0.8 0.1 3.92 4.88
Luis Medina Tom Carroll Jack McKnight Thomas Arruda 1.4 0.0 3.94 5.06
Jeff Criswell Jeff Peterek Kent Bottenfield Skip Lockwood 1.7 0.2 3.92 4.94
Jack Cushing Chad Jenkins Jen-Ho Tseng Jon Harris 1.7 0.3 3.93 4.89
Adam Kolarek Juan Agosto Brian Duensing Lee Guetterman 0.3 -0.5 3.83 5.20
Norge Ruiz Joe Penland Paul Phillips Justin James 0.3 -0.6 3.83 5.10
Jared Koenig Frank Garces Joe Bircher Eric Jokisch 요키시 1.5 -0.1 3.98 5.11
Colin Peluse D.J. Brown Connor Grey Sean Poppen 1.5 0.0 3.98 5.06
Deolis Guerra Steve Schrenk Rick White David Cortes 코르테스 0.3 -0.6 3.47 6.06
Ryan Cusick Homer Moncrief Jim Mecir Robert Williams 0.9 -0.1 3.98 5.07
Justin Grimm Mike Perez Jose Alberro Mike Koplove 0.2 -0.5 3.75 5.65
Adam Oller Paul Clemens John Leister Chris Fussell 1.2 -0.1 4.09 5.14
David McKay Johnny James Jim Dickson Marvin Freeman 0.2 -0.6 3.96 5.48
Zach Logue Jason Wheeler 휠러 David Huff 허프 Mike Maroth 1.3 -0.4 4.16 5.42
Ty Damron Joe Bircher Chad Bell채드벨 Jonathan Cornelius 1.0 -0.1 4.24 5.25
Chase Cohen Paul Thornton Aaron France Mark Woodyard 0.5 -0.4 4.10 5.23
Brock Whittlesey Mark Wooden Scott Effross Humberto Cardenas 0.1 -0.6 4.16 5.21
Jack Weisenburger Roger Hambright Dick Colpaert Glenn Lohfink 0.1 -0.6 3.96 5.66
Miguel Romero Gary Neibauer Miguel Asencio Dolan Nichols 0.3 -0.6 4.18 5.42
Jacob Lemoine David Goforth Jason Hursh Bobby Cassevah 0.1 -0.7 4.18 5.49
Royber Salinas Tom Griffin Todd Van Poppel Dick Hughes 1.2 -0.4 4.19 5.45
Parker Dunshee Anthony Lerew 앤서니 Anthony Ranaudo 레나도 Barry Enright 1.0 -0.4 4.26 5.30
Jasseel De La Cruz Nicky Curtis Grant Johnson Greg Holt 0.6 -0.2 4.28 5.29
Calvin Coker Jaime Mendes Garrett Cortright Alexis Guzman -0.1 -0.6 4.23 5.49
Chester Pimentel Mike Franco David Patton Jim Henderson 0.1 -0.8 4.14 5.66
Aaron Brown Mike Mimbs Dan Meyer Jose Lugo 0.1 -1.0 4.15 5.90
Bryce Conley Rory Shortell Fredy Deza Daven Bond 0.4 -0.7 4.41 5.65
Brady Feigl Nate Yeskie Marty Popham Ben Moore 0.4 -0.5 4.59 5.80
Ryan Castellani Yeiper Castillo Lay Batista Bob Graczyk 0.1 -0.8 4.85 6.26

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

53 Comments
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soddingjunkmailmember
1 month ago

Thanks Dan! Is there a (public) schedule of when the other teams are getting released?

Anon21
1 month ago

No, he’s said he doesn’t like to be bugged about it, so the schedule is random and not public.

Mike Greenmember
1 month ago
Reply to  Anon21

And more fun, like a jazz solo. OK, that’s an acquired taste. I get it.

soddingjunkmailmember
1 month ago
Reply to  Anon21

thx