2023 ZiPS Projections: Arizona Diamondbacks

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Batters

Let’s get the obvious out of the way: ZiPS really, really likes the Diamondbacks. As I mentioned in the early standings run I did a few weeks ago, I actually went back and re-checked everything that was Arizona-specific to make sure that the optimism was correct, and while I can’t say for sure that the computer’s love for this roster is warranted, I can at least say that it was properly generated!

ZiPS was unsure just what to make of Corbin Carroll before last season, as he had very little professional experience, but he crushed it in Double and Triple-A in 2022, rocketing up in the projections as quickly as Gunnar Henderson did. He put up 1.4 WAR in just 32 games in the majors, so it’s not like it’s completely out of the blue. Since Carroll didn’t lose his rookie qualifications for 2023, he’s going to be one of the top few players on the ZiPS Top 100 Prospect list next season. ZiPS rarely projects a rookie to play this well; I feel like I gave almost the exact same lecture about Julio Rodríguez last year!

The projections remain a fan of Ketel Marte, and ZiPS sees Christian Walker as good enough defensively at this point to be a good chunk above average. The rest of the lineup isn’t exciting, but it’s solid in most other places. The primary exception to this is designated hitter, where Pavin Smith currently appears to have the lion’s share of playing time. He hasn’t hit in the majors at all and, truth be told, hasn’t really hit in the minors; a .795 OPS for a college hitter getting half his time in the California League is not particularly impressive when we’re talking someone with limited defensive value.

Overall, this is a respectable group, though not an offense that will be in the first three or four lineups in the National League.

Pitchers

No, I didn’t forget to include Madison Bumgarner; you probably didn’t scroll down far enough. No, I swear, I’m looking at him right now, keep looking down, he’s definitely there. The money isn’t enough to call Bumgarner’s contract a legitimate disaster for Arizona, but he’s been downright lousy in the desert. He rarely fools a batter these days, and it’s not like his soft repertoire is hard for batters to crush. He also suffered the additional misfortune of the NL adopting the universal DH, stripping him of something that brought additional value to his team. Just for “fun,” I ran his offensive projections, and ZiPS actually thinks Bumgarner has more value as a pitcher hitting in a non-DH league than as, well, a pitcher.

My set of algorithms has always had a love affair with Zac Gallen, so him having a terrific season featuring an impressive scoreless-innings streak wasn’t going to end that particular romance. A number of Diamondbacks starting pitchers get really solid projections: Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, and especially Brandon Pfaadt. He, like Carroll, is going to be very high on that ZiPS prospect list; his 10 starts in Reno were absolutely mind-blowing in context.

(If you don’t follow the minors regularly, one thing you may have missed is that offense has exploded there the last few years to the degree that it has disappered in the majors. The Pacific Coast League just had its best offensive season since the early 1980s with a league ERA of 5.40 and nearly six runs scored per game. To survive and thrive in a hitters’ park in that league is a feat.)

The bullpen presents as adequate and unexciting, with ZiPS liking some of the names better than Steamer does. Arizona will take that over the inadequate (and very exciting!) bullpen of 2022 that finished last in relief WAR in baseball by nearly an entire win. Kevin Ginkel in particular is some better control away from being a very good reliever. The back end of the pen is much less interesting, with ZiPS preferring the Diamondbacks look at some of their minor league relief depth rather than Corbin Martin or J.B. Bukauskas.

Overall, ZiPS sees Arizona as a team that’s broadly somewhere around .500 at the moment, perhaps a bit better. The problem is that it’s hard to envision the Diamondbacks being as good as the top three teams in the NL West in 2023. They should be thankful for the extra wild card; otherwise a successful season might be limited to lapping the Rockies in the race for fourth place.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here.

Batters – Standard
Player B Age PO PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Corbin Carroll L 22 CF 580 509 75 129 23 9 16 83 57 162 20 5
Ketel Marte B 29 2B 537 481 71 136 36 3 16 59 48 90 5 1
Christian Walker R 32 1B 581 512 76 130 27 1 24 75 59 127 2 1
Daulton Varsho L 26 RF 534 481 80 124 25 3 25 73 43 119 12 4
Josh Rojas L 29 3B 538 472 72 118 29 2 11 58 58 111 18 5
Nick Ahmed R 33 SS 447 407 51 99 25 3 9 45 33 96 5 2
Carson Kelly R 28 C 366 320 43 77 18 0 12 43 38 73 1 1
Alek Thomas L 23 CF 543 498 66 127 27 6 11 65 37 108 7 6
Jake McCarthy L 25 RF 487 442 66 113 22 7 10 58 36 114 23 5
Juan Centeno L 33 C 306 285 27 71 15 1 4 34 15 59 1 1
Dominic Fletcher L 25 CF 520 479 59 121 23 6 8 59 31 130 4 4
Seth Beer L 26 1B 521 451 57 112 27 1 13 89 40 112 0 1
Jose Herrera B 26 C 316 280 28 65 11 1 4 27 31 74 1 1
Jordan Luplow R 29 RF 298 259 38 55 16 1 13 39 35 73 4 2
Sergio Alcántara B 26 3B 321 285 38 67 10 2 5 31 30 79 3 2
Ali Sánchez R 26 C 320 294 30 71 14 0 4 32 23 80 1 1
Geraldo Perdomo R 23 SS 507 438 59 97 15 4 5 47 52 109 8 4
Buddy Kennedy R 24 3B 473 423 50 101 16 3 9 50 42 118 5 3
Blaze Alexander R 24 SS 422 382 45 84 15 3 9 52 28 137 6 3
Pavin Smith L 27 RF 441 398 50 102 20 2 11 46 38 86 1 1
Emmanuel Rivera R 27 3B 450 416 56 101 20 3 12 52 28 97 2 1
Tim Tawa R 24 2B 450 410 44 96 18 2 8 44 36 106 6 3
Kyle Lewis R 27 DH 354 316 44 77 13 0 13 40 35 101 2 1
C.J. Chatham R 28 2B 377 355 37 90 18 1 3 40 15 80 3 1
Dominic Miroglio R 28 C 286 259 26 61 13 2 6 32 22 60 1 1
Jordan Lawlar R 20 SS 473 424 72 98 15 5 10 62 39 143 18 4
Jorge Barrosa B 22 CF 555 503 64 123 29 2 7 61 40 106 14 9
Jancarlos Cintron R 28 2B 425 399 45 100 20 1 4 41 19 71 6 4
Wilmer Difo B 31 SS 331 305 35 78 12 2 4 31 22 66 3 2
Juan Graterol R 34 C 173 163 15 43 6 0 1 18 6 19 1 1
A.J. Vukovich R 21 3B 493 472 50 113 22 2 12 60 15 127 15 3
Tristin English R 26 3B 404 368 39 84 15 1 8 50 23 102 2 2
Ryan Bliss R 23 SS 440 405 50 86 16 3 7 49 26 127 13 7
Nick Heath L 29 LF 344 310 39 64 10 5 4 31 28 127 20 8
Dominic Canzone L 25 RF 411 381 51 96 21 2 12 53 25 93 8 2
Nick Dalesandro R 26 C 292 267 28 59 9 1 1 23 20 84 16 3
Deyvison De Los Santos R 20 3B 526 495 52 117 23 2 13 64 24 168 2 1
Camden Duzenack R 28 LF 353 328 40 72 14 2 9 40 16 100 5 2
Joshua Day R 23 SS 115 103 7 22 3 0 1 13 9 33 2 1
Cam Coursey L 24 2B 279 252 30 58 10 2 1 23 23 54 3 3
Wilderd Patino R 21 CF 403 368 47 81 14 2 5 56 16 130 26 6
Leandro Cedeño R 24 1B 491 459 50 112 22 1 11 62 23 149 1 1
Jose Curpa R 23 2B 183 161 16 33 5 2 0 17 18 51 6 3
Adrian Del Castillo L 23 C 328 299 28 66 15 3 5 36 22 93 2 1
Jake Hager R 30 SS 360 325 37 72 18 0 6 36 28 100 4 1
Shane Muntz R 24 1B 169 149 14 29 8 0 2 20 13 52 0 1
Grayson Greiner R 30 C 229 208 19 38 7 0 4 20 18 92 0 1
Elvis Peralta L 26 2B 218 199 23 39 8 2 0 18 14 78 5 2
Cole Tucker B 26 SS 382 351 41 75 14 3 5 32 29 106 6 3
Roby Enriquez L 26 RF 367 336 32 78 13 1 4 50 17 70 3 3
Lyle Lin R 26 1B 174 161 15 32 5 0 0 13 9 46 0 1
Caleb Roberts L 23 C 445 395 46 79 15 4 6 53 38 142 6 3
Channy Ortiz B 24 2B 287 258 24 54 10 2 1 27 20 85 3 3

Batters – Advanced
Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA
Corbin Carroll 580 .253 .341 .428 110 .175 .341 6 3.9 .334
Ketel Marte 537 .283 .352 .470 124 .187 .320 -6 3.1 .352
Christian Walker 581 .254 .336 .451 114 .197 .294 7 2.8 .339
Daulton Varsho 534 .258 .325 .478 117 .220 .294 3 2.6 .343
Josh Rojas 538 .250 .333 .390 98 .140 .306 4 2.5 .317
Nick Ahmed 447 .243 .300 .386 87 .143 .298 8 2.1 .296
Carson Kelly 366 .241 .325 .409 101 .169 .277 1 1.9 .318
Alek Thomas 543 .255 .311 .400 94 .145 .306 4 1.9 .309
Jake McCarthy 487 .256 .320 .405 98 .149 .324 4 1.7 .315
Juan Centeno 306 .249 .295 .351 77 .102 .302 5 1.1 .284
Dominic Fletcher 520 .253 .303 .376 86 .123 .331 2 1.1 .295
Seth Beer 521 .248 .342 .399 103 .151 .304 -2 1.1 .326
Jose Herrera 316 .232 .309 .321 74 .089 .302 4 1.0 .282
Jordan Luplow 298 .212 .312 .432 102 .220 .243 2 1.0 .323
Sergio Alcántara 321 .235 .310 .337 79 .102 .308 6 1.0 .287
Ali Sánchez 320 .241 .300 .330 74 .088 .319 4 0.9 .278
Geraldo Perdomo 507 .221 .313 .308 72 .087 .284 0 0.8 .280
Buddy Kennedy 473 .239 .311 .355 83 .116 .311 0 0.8 .293
Blaze Alexander 422 .220 .287 .346 73 .126 .318 2 0.7 .279
Pavin Smith 441 .256 .322 .399 97 .143 .302 -1 0.7 .314
Emmanuel Rivera 450 .243 .296 .392 87 .149 .290 -2 0.7 .298
Tim Tawa 450 .234 .300 .346 78 .112 .297 1 0.7 .286
Kyle Lewis 354 .244 .319 .408 99 .165 .317 0 0.6 .317
C.J. Chatham 377 .254 .289 .335 72 .082 .320 5 0.6 .273
Dominic Miroglio 286 .236 .301 .371 84 .135 .285 -3 0.5 .294
Jordan Lawlar 473 .231 .304 .361 83 .130 .325 -8 0.5 .291
Jorge Barrosa 555 .245 .309 .352 82 .107 .297 -3 0.5 .291
Jancarlos Cintron 425 .251 .289 .336 72 .085 .296 4 0.5 .275
Wilmer Difo 331 .256 .303 .348 79 .092 .315 -2 0.4 .284
Juan Graterol 173 .264 .301 .319 71 .055 .294 1 0.3 .275
A.J. Vukovich 493 .239 .268 .371 73 .131 .303 0 0.3 .275
Tristin English 404 .228 .290 .340 73 .111 .295 1 0.3 .278
Ryan Bliss 440 .212 .269 .319 61 .106 .292 3 0.2 .259
Nick Heath 344 .206 .277 .310 62 .103 .335 10 0.2 .260
Dominic Canzone 411 .252 .304 .412 95 .160 .304 -6 0.1 .310
Nick Dalesandro 292 .221 .278 .273 53 .052 .319 2 0.1 .249
Deyvison De Los Santos 526 .236 .274 .370 75 .133 .331 -3 -0.1 .278
Camden Duzenack 353 .220 .263 .357 69 .137 .288 5 -0.1 .269
Joshua Day 115 .214 .287 .272 55 .058 .304 0 -0.2 .251
Cam Coursey 279 .230 .297 .298 65 .067 .289 0 -0.2 .267
Wilderd Patino 403 .220 .278 .310 62 .090 .326 -2 -0.2 .262
Leandro Cedeño 491 .244 .287 .368 79 .124 .338 3 -0.2 .285
Jose Curpa 183 .205 .301 .261 57 .056 .300 -3 -0.4 .260
Adrian Del Castillo 328 .221 .284 .341 71 .120 .303 -9 -0.5 .275
Jake Hager 360 .222 .285 .332 70 .111 .301 -9 -0.6 .273
Shane Muntz 169 .195 .278 .289 57 .094 .284 0 -0.6 .256
Grayson Greiner 229 .183 .253 .274 46 .091 .304 -2 -0.6 .238
Elvis Peralta 218 .196 .258 .256 43 .060 .322 0 -0.7 .233
Cole Tucker 382 .214 .275 .313 62 .100 .292 -7 -0.7 .261
Roby Enriquez 367 .232 .290 .313 66 .080 .282 -1 -0.9 .269
Lyle Lin 174 .199 .253 .230 35 .031 .278 1 -1.0 .221
Caleb Roberts 445 .200 .285 .304 63 .104 .296 -14 -1.2 .264
Channy Ortiz 287 .209 .277 .275 53 .066 .308 -7 -1.3 .250

Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps
Player Hit Comp 1 Hit Comp 2 Hit Comp 3
Corbin Carroll Lloyd Moseby Jose Cardenal Dave May
Ketel Marte Lou Whitaker Jorge Orta Jorge Polanco
Christian Walker Roy Sievers Rafael Palmeiro Eddie Robinson
Daulton Varsho Ival Goodman Ron Gant Corey Dickerson
Josh Rojas Ossie Bluege Rich Amaral Tony Bernazard
Nick Ahmed Doc Lavan Greg Gagne Howie Shanks
Carson Kelly Johnny Edwards John Tamargo Charlie O’Brien
Alek Thomas Dell Alston Marty Keough Bill Virdon
Jake McCarthy Kevin Kiermaier Tom Shopay Ron Stone
Juan Centeno Cesar Devarez Cody McKay Gary Bennett
Dominic Fletcher Ben Gamel Jimmy Williams Will Venable
Seth Beer Otis Foster Chris Parmelee Carlos Quentin
Jose Herrera Dan Moylan Trevor Coleman Adam Weisenburger
Jordan Luplow Greg Vaughn Chris Young Bob Hamelin
Sergio Alcántara Billy Smith Darrel Chaney Scott Leius
Ali Sánchez Josh Ford Keith McDonald Luis Martinez
Geraldo Perdomo Denny Hocking Jason Goligoski Albenis Machado
Buddy Kennedy Joe Delfino Don Hoak Tom Lombarski
Blaze Alexander Anderson Tejeda Joe Moock Tyler Greene
Pavin Smith Blake DeWitt Jerry Narron Mike Lum
Emmanuel Rivera Jeffrey Geach Syd O’Brien Steve Davis
Tim Tawa Danny Mendick Robinson Chirinos Sherwin Minster
Kyle Lewis Frankie George Bob Spence Tom Burgess
C.J. Chatham Jim Glover Marco Hernandez Dan Davidsmeier
Dominic Miroglio Buddy Booker Alex Trevino Matt Wallach
Jordan Lawlar Hiram Bocachica Marcus Sanders Desi Relaford
Jorge Barrosa Greg Allen Tom Spencer Matt Szczur
Jancarlos Cintron Angelys Nina Melvin Dorta Chris Wimmer
Wilmer Difo Ramon Santiago Anderson Hernandez Edgar Caceres 캐세레스
Juan Graterol Al Ronning Junior Ortiz Jorge Fabregas
A.J. Vukovich Felix Mantilla Dick Edwards Jim Wohlford
Tristin English George Runk Steven Gardner Ricardo Sosa
Ryan Bliss Nelson Castro Ramon Araujo Kelly Dransfeldt
Nick Heath Lorenzo Scott Ramon Gomez Scarborough Green
Dominic Canzone George Metkovich Frank Tepedino Darryl Motley
Nick Dalesandro Pat Hallmark Chris O’Dowd Rogelio Nunez
Deyvison De Los Santos Juan Delgado Carlos Baerga Gabriel Quintana
Camden Duzenack Ryan Cordell Ken Williams Garrick Haltiwanger
Joshua Day Matt McLaughlin Jason Knupfer Omar Rogers
Cam Coursey Chris Grubb Manny Patel Peter Maris
Wilderd Patino Derek Hill Clayton Byrne Greg Golson
Leandro Cedeño Ryan Norwood Rebel Ridling Sean Halton
Jose Curpa Ruben Sosa Rafael Ynoa Mike Samuel
Adrian Del Castillo Duffy Dyer Wayne Martin Brandon Black
Jake Hager Jason Maxwell Shane Halter Dave Matranga
Shane Muntz Ivan Reyes Gregory Collins Steve Salata
Grayson Greiner Kerry Baker Tony DeFrancesco Dwight Lowry
Elvis Peralta Kevin Faircloth Billy Malone Jason Clements
Cole Tucker Juan Bell Buddy Biancalana Matt Matulia
Roby Enriquez Glen Gorbous Scot Thompson Joe Moock
Lyle Lin Travis Ozga Juan Querecuto Jonathan Tasis
Caleb Roberts Adam Davis William Shirah John Wathan
Channy Ortiz Jeff Kaiser Ryan Walker Eric Thomas

Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles
Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR
Corbin Carroll .286 .370 .495 132 5.4 .223 .312 .371 87 2.2
Ketel Marte .309 .379 .526 143 4.4 .255 .324 .422 104 1.8
Christian Walker .283 .361 .497 132 4.1 .229 .312 .403 96 1.5
Daulton Varsho .282 .347 .536 137 3.9 .233 .301 .427 98 1.4
Josh Rojas .278 .363 .435 118 3.9 .223 .307 .343 81 1.4
Nick Ahmed .268 .327 .439 106 3.1 .214 .275 .341 67 1.0
Carson Kelly .274 .358 .475 127 3.1 .215 .300 .357 83 1.1
Alek Thomas .284 .335 .443 112 3.2 .232 .290 .352 77 0.8
Jake McCarthy .280 .344 .449 116 2.7 .231 .295 .357 82 0.7
Juan Centeno .282 .326 .398 98 1.9 .220 .267 .306 59 0.4
Dominic Fletcher .280 .327 .419 103 2.3 .224 .275 .328 66 -0.1
Seth Beer .275 .366 .449 123 2.3 .220 .317 .355 84 -0.1
Jose Herrera .265 .345 .373 98 2.0 .199 .279 .280 57 0.3
Jordan Luplow .237 .337 .497 122 1.7 .190 .292 .384 86 0.4
Sergio Alcántara .261 .339 .382 97 1.7 .205 .284 .294 59 0.2
Ali Sánchez .275 .331 .369 92 1.7 .211 .272 .284 54 0.2
Geraldo Perdomo .253 .344 .350 91 2.0 .197 .286 .266 54 -0.4
Buddy Kennedy .264 .335 .398 99 1.7 .213 .284 .319 67 -0.2
Blaze Alexander .248 .316 .401 97 2.0 .195 .262 .292 56 -0.1
Pavin Smith .284 .351 .446 115 1.7 .228 .296 .350 79 -0.3
Emmanuel Rivera .271 .321 .447 107 1.8 .216 .267 .344 67 -0.4
Tim Tawa .271 .331 .394 97 1.8 .207 .273 .298 59 -0.3
Kyle Lewis .272 .344 .462 118 1.5 .216 .292 .356 79 -0.3
C.J. Chatham .284 .317 .377 90 1.5 .225 .260 .296 54 -0.3
Dominic Miroglio .273 .333 .435 106 1.4 .208 .271 .318 61 -0.2
Jordan Lawlar .260 .333 .417 105 1.8 .202 .277 .306 63 -0.6
Jorge Barrosa .274 .335 .397 100 1.8 .216 .283 .311 64 -0.8
Jancarlos Cintron .279 .319 .375 88 1.4 .221 .262 .294 54 -0.5
Wilmer Difo .287 .334 .395 100 1.2 .227 .275 .307 62 -0.3
Juan Graterol .299 .337 .360 91 0.8 .228 .267 .279 51 -0.1
A.J. Vukovich .267 .292 .414 91 1.4 .214 .241 .328 56 -0.9
Tristin English .256 .319 .390 91 1.2 .204 .265 .299 53 -0.7
Ryan Bliss .238 .295 .367 81 1.3 .187 .244 .281 46 -0.7
Nick Heath .234 .305 .357 82 1.0 .179 .248 .267 42 -0.7
Dominic Canzone .277 .329 .462 113 1.1 .227 .277 .367 77 -0.8
Nick Dalesandro .255 .315 .315 74 1.0 .187 .252 .238 36 -0.5
Deyvison De Los Santos .265 .300 .420 96 1.3 .208 .249 .321 56 -1.3
Camden Duzenack .250 .292 .408 89 0.9 .196 .237 .312 49 -1.0
Joshua Day .237 .313 .308 71 0.1 .188 .262 .237 39 -0.4
Cam Coursey .261 .331 .344 83 0.5 .199 .270 .256 46 -0.8
Wilderd Patino .245 .302 .353 78 0.7 .194 .253 .273 46 -1.1
Leandro Cedeño .266 .311 .411 94 0.8 .216 .261 .332 61 -1.4
Jose Curpa .241 .337 .304 80 0.1 .173 .274 .216 39 -0.8
Adrian Del Castillo .258 .317 .403 96 0.6 .186 .251 .290 51 -1.2
Jake Hager .253 .316 .378 88 0.4 .197 .258 .286 50 -1.4
Shane Muntz .227 .308 .339 76 -0.2 .165 .248 .241 37 -1.0
Grayson Greiner .213 .285 .324 66 -0.1 .153 .222 .233 28 -1.2
Elvis Peralta .224 .285 .294 59 -0.2 .166 .230 .217 25 -1.2
Cole Tucker .239 .300 .362 80 0.1 .186 .248 .271 44 -1.6
Roby Enriquez .255 .313 .355 82 -0.1 .206 .266 .278 50 -1.6
Lyle Lin .231 .284 .270 53 -0.6 .174 .227 .201 20 -1.3
Caleb Roberts .233 .313 .361 84 -0.1 .172 .259 .257 45 -2.4
Channy Ortiz .242 .307 .320 74 -0.6 .183 .249 .236 36 -2.0

Pitchers – Standard
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Joe Mantiply L 32 3 3 3.31 60 0 51.7 49 19 5 13 52
Zac Gallen R 27 9 7 3.42 29 29 165.7 138 63 20 48 176
Cole Sulser R 33 4 3 3.61 46 1 47.3 42 19 5 19 52
Kevin Ginkel R 29 3 1 3.66 54 0 51.7 44 21 6 22 61
Brandon Pfaadt R 24 9 8 3.66 26 26 152.3 139 62 18 32 153
Miguel Castro R 28 3 2 3.81 52 1 52.0 42 22 4 27 55
Tyler Holton L 27 3 3 3.86 29 6 53.7 52 23 6 17 49
Oliver Pérez L 41 2 1 4.00 29 0 18.0 19 8 2 5 15
Blake Workman R 25 4 4 4.03 36 1 51.3 50 23 7 14 50
Drey Jameson R 25 10 9 4.04 27 26 138.0 132 62 16 45 126
Ryne Nelson R 25 7 8 4.05 26 26 135.7 128 61 17 46 125
Kyle Backhus L 25 4 3 4.05 34 1 46.7 43 21 5 22 47
Mitchell Stumpo R 27 1 2 4.07 40 0 42.0 37 19 5 20 44
Mark Melancon R 38 5 4 4.10 53 0 48.3 53 22 5 18 35
Taylor Rashi R 27 3 2 4.15 29 1 34.7 30 16 4 17 38
Luis Frías R 25 5 5 4.18 32 11 79.7 73 37 9 39 85
Keynan Middleton R 29 2 2 4.19 36 1 34.3 31 16 5 13 37
Tommy Henry L 25 6 7 4.19 27 27 137.3 134 64 16 56 119
J.B. Wendelken R 30 4 4 4.20 46 0 49.3 44 23 5 22 47
Kyle Nelson L 26 2 1 4.24 45 1 40.3 35 19 4 21 40
Slade Cecconi R 24 6 5 4.25 23 22 114.3 116 54 15 32 90
Peter Solomon R 26 6 6 4.26 25 19 101.3 100 48 11 43 85
Ryan Meisinger R 29 2 2 4.26 25 1 31.7 30 15 4 14 33
Merrill Kelly 켈리 R 34 9 9 4.27 27 27 160.3 160 76 24 47 137
Noé Ramirez R 33 3 4 4.27 46 1 46.3 41 22 6 18 46
Edwin Uceta R 25 4 4 4.30 32 10 73.3 65 35 9 34 81
Austin Brice R 31 2 3 4.30 37 2 46.0 41 22 5 19 43
Taylor Widener R 28 3 3 4.35 31 8 68.3 66 33 10 25 67
Ryan Hendrix R 28 2 1 4.36 46 0 43.3 38 21 5 26 47
Zach McAllister R 35 2 3 4.38 42 0 51.3 47 25 6 22 55
Humberto Castellanos R 25 3 4 4.39 19 10 69.7 71 34 10 18 54
Paul Fry L 30 2 2 4.40 45 0 43.0 37 21 3 25 43
Justin Martinez R 21 3 4 4.43 22 1 42.7 37 21 5 26 48
Blake Walston L 22 4 6 4.44 20 20 99.3 98 49 14 41 88
Miguel Aguilar L 31 3 3 4.46 42 1 42.3 45 21 5 15 31
Reyes Moronta R 30 2 3 4.46 46 0 42.3 36 21 5 27 46
Humberto Mejia R 26 6 6 4.48 20 17 88.3 94 44 12 29 65
Zach Davies R 30 5 5 4.51 25 25 123.7 125 62 18 49 93
Caleb Smith L 31 4 6 4.52 38 10 93.7 83 47 17 42 93
Jeff Bain R 27 5 6 4.52 35 10 77.7 80 39 12 25 69
Blake Rogers R 29 3 4 4.53 42 1 51.7 49 26 6 24 51
J.B. Bukauskas R 26 2 2 4.56 24 7 49.3 49 25 7 21 47
Mack Lemieux L 26 2 3 4.57 38 0 43.3 42 22 5 25 39
Matt Tabor R 24 6 8 4.63 21 20 95.3 99 49 14 31 73
Bryce Jarvis R 25 3 5 4.70 21 21 95.7 97 50 12 45 80
Corbin Martin R 27 5 6 4.71 19 15 80.3 80 42 11 38 74
Jake Rice L 25 2 2 4.75 30 0 36.0 36 19 4 18 30
Andrew Saalfrank L 25 2 4 4.78 35 0 49.0 47 26 8 25 49
Josh Green R 27 4 4 4.78 29 9 79.0 88 42 9 25 45
Austin Pope R 24 3 5 4.80 25 6 60.0 63 32 8 26 49
Tyler Gilbert L 29 4 5 4.84 19 14 70.7 72 38 10 26 46
Ian Kennedy R 38 3 4 4.85 46 1 42.7 45 23 8 16 39
Deyni Olivero R 25 6 7 4.86 24 24 116.7 128 63 15 40 72
Liu Fuenmayor L 24 2 3 4.86 29 0 37.0 38 20 5 16 31
Madison Bumgarner L 33 7 10 4.93 26 26 138.7 148 76 26 38 106
Jamison Hill R 24 6 9 5.08 24 22 111.7 115 63 17 54 86
Levi Kelly R 24 2 3 5.20 18 14 64.0 63 37 11 41 65
Dan Straily 스트레일리 R 34 3 4 5.68 15 12 63.3 73 40 13 26 48

Pitchers – Advanced
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR
Joe Mantiply 51.7 9.1 2.3 0.9 6.0% 24.2% .308 125 3.27 80 0.8
Zac Gallen 165.7 9.6 2.6 1.1 7.1% 26.0% .276 121 3.61 83 3.4
Cole Sulser 47.3 9.9 3.6 1.0 9.4% 25.6% .298 114 3.60 87 0.5
Kevin Ginkel 51.7 10.6 3.8 1.0 9.9% 27.5% .295 113 3.64 88 0.4
Brandon Pfaadt 152.3 9.0 1.9 1.1 5.1% 24.6% .292 113 3.49 89 2.8
Miguel Castro 52.0 9.5 4.7 0.7 11.8% 24.1% .279 109 3.77 92 0.5
Tyler Holton 53.7 8.2 2.9 1.0 7.4% 21.2% .299 107 3.84 93 0.7
Oliver Pérez 18.0 7.5 2.5 1.0 6.5% 19.5% .309 103 4.10 97 0.1
Blake Workman 51.3 8.8 2.5 1.2 6.5% 23.0% .301 103 4.03 98 0.3
Drey Jameson 138.0 8.2 2.9 1.0 7.7% 21.4% .294 102 4.01 98 2.0
Ryne Nelson 135.7 8.3 3.1 1.1 8.0% 21.7% .290 102 4.07 98 1.9
Kyle Backhus 46.7 9.1 4.2 1.0 10.8% 23.0% .297 102 4.14 98 0.3
Mitchell Stumpo 42.0 9.4 4.3 1.1 10.8% 23.8% .288 102 4.18 98 0.2
Mark Melancon 48.3 6.5 3.4 0.9 8.4% 16.3% .312 101 4.23 99 0.2
Taylor Rashi 34.7 9.9 4.4 1.0 11.3% 25.3% .289 100 4.02 100 0.2
Luis Frías 79.7 9.6 4.4 1.0 11.1% 24.2% .300 99 3.99 101 0.9
Keynan Middleton 34.3 9.7 3.4 1.3 8.9% 25.3% .289 99 4.11 101 0.1
Tommy Henry 137.3 7.8 3.7 1.0 9.3% 19.9% .294 99 4.25 101 1.8
J.B. Wendelken 49.3 8.6 4.0 0.9 10.3% 22.0% .285 99 4.09 101 0.1
Kyle Nelson 40.3 8.9 4.7 0.9 11.9% 22.7% .284 98 4.24 103 0.2
Slade Cecconi 114.3 7.1 2.5 1.2 6.6% 18.5% .293 97 4.36 103 1.3
Peter Solomon 101.3 7.5 3.8 1.0 9.6% 19.0% .296 97 4.25 103 1.2
Ryan Meisinger 31.7 9.4 4.0 1.1 10.0% 23.6% .302 97 4.23 103 0.1
Merrill Kelly 160.3 7.7 2.6 1.3 6.9% 20.2% .291 97 4.31 103 1.9
Noé Ramirez 46.3 8.9 3.5 1.2 9.1% 23.4% .280 97 4.21 103 0.2
Edwin Uceta 73.3 9.9 4.2 1.1 10.7% 25.6% .295 96 4.14 104 0.6
Austin Brice 46.0 8.4 3.7 1.0 9.6% 21.8% .281 96 4.46 104 0.2
Taylor Widener 68.3 8.8 3.3 1.3 8.5% 22.7% .296 95 4.32 105 0.6
Ryan Hendrix 43.3 9.8 5.4 1.0 13.3% 24.0% .292 95 4.49 105 0.0
Zach McAllister 51.3 9.6 3.9 1.1 10.0% 24.9% .299 94 4.22 106 0.1
Humberto Castellanos 69.7 7.0 2.3 1.3 6.1% 18.3% .289 94 4.46 106 0.6
Paul Fry 43.0 9.0 5.2 0.6 13.1% 22.5% .291 94 4.15 106 0.1
Justin Martinez 42.7 10.1 5.5 1.1 13.5% 25.0% .294 93 4.61 107 0.1
Blake Walston 99.3 8.0 3.7 1.3 9.4% 20.1% .293 93 4.48 107 1.0
Miguel Aguilar 42.3 6.6 3.2 1.1 8.2% 16.8% .301 93 4.36 108 0.0
Reyes Moronta 42.3 9.8 5.7 1.1 14.1% 24.0% .284 93 4.57 108 0.0
Humberto Mejia 88.3 6.6 3.0 1.2 7.6% 16.9% .298 92 4.53 108 0.8
Zach Davies 123.7 6.8 3.6 1.3 9.1% 17.3% .285 92 4.78 109 1.1
Caleb Smith 93.7 8.9 4.0 1.6 10.4% 23.1% .266 92 5.00 109 0.5
Jeff Bain 77.7 8.0 2.9 1.4 7.5% 20.7% .301 91 4.54 109 0.6
Blake Rogers 51.7 8.9 4.2 1.0 10.4% 22.2% .301 91 4.43 110 0.0
J.B. Bukauskas 49.3 8.6 3.8 1.3 9.6% 21.6% .300 91 4.49 110 0.3
Mack Lemieux 43.3 8.1 5.2 1.0 12.7% 19.8% .296 90 4.79 111 -0.1
Matt Tabor 95.3 6.9 2.9 1.3 7.5% 17.8% .292 89 4.76 112 0.8
Bryce Jarvis 95.7 7.5 4.2 1.1 10.4% 18.5% .298 88 4.68 114 0.7
Corbin Martin 80.3 8.3 4.3 1.2 10.6% 20.7% .300 88 4.58 114 0.5
Jake Rice 36.0 7.5 4.5 1.0 11.2% 18.6% .299 87 4.51 115 -0.1
Andrew Saalfrank 49.0 9.0 4.6 1.5 11.3% 22.1% .291 87 4.99 116 -0.2
Josh Green 79.0 5.1 2.8 1.0 7.2% 13.0% .299 86 4.79 116 0.3
Austin Pope 60.0 7.4 3.9 1.2 9.7% 18.2% .302 86 4.75 116 0.2
Tyler Gilbert 70.7 5.9 3.3 1.3 8.5% 15.0% .279 85 4.88 117 0.3
Ian Kennedy 42.7 8.2 3.4 1.7 8.6% 20.9% .301 85 4.96 117 -0.1
Deyni Olivero 116.7 5.6 3.1 1.2 7.8% 14.0% .296 85 4.77 118 0.7
Liu Fuenmayor 37.0 7.5 3.9 1.2 9.7% 18.8% .300 85 4.86 118 -0.2
Madison Bumgarner 138.7 6.9 2.5 1.7 6.4% 17.9% .290 84 5.06 119 0.6
Jamison Hill 111.7 6.9 4.4 1.4 10.7% 17.0% .289 81 5.23 123 0.3
Levi Kelly 64.0 9.1 5.8 1.5 13.8% 21.8% .297 79 5.47 126 0.0
Dan Straily 63.3 6.8 3.7 1.8 9.1% 16.8% .305 73 5.63 137 -0.3

Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps and Percentiles
Player Pit Comp 1 Pit Comp 2 Pit Comp 3 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA
Joe Mantiply Jose Alvarez Mike Magnante Brett Cecil 1.3 0.2 2.59 4.11
Zac Gallen Jim Palmer Johnny Morrison John Smoltz 4.5 2.2 2.87 4.03
Cole Sulser Jay Witasick Chaz Roe Jason Grilli 0.9 -0.1 2.86 4.98
Kevin Ginkel Xavier Hernandez James Sherfy Chuck Ricci 1.0 -0.2 2.88 4.78
Brandon Pfaadt Jeff Weaver Dan Haren Bret Saberhagen 4.1 1.7 2.99 4.36
Miguel Castro Doug Bochtler Bryce Florie Jake Barrett 0.8 -0.1 3.30 4.76
Tyler Holton Frank Gailey Donnie Hart Mike Jeffcoat 1.2 0.2 3.10 4.66
Oliver Pérez Stubby Overmire Clyde Shoun Lee Guetterman 0.3 -0.1 3.32 4.96
Blake Workman Neal Frontz Matt Rusch Lance Franks 0.9 -0.2 3.18 5.05
Drey Jameson Hector Ambriz John Burkett Omar Olivares 3.0 1.0 3.46 4.67
Ryne Nelson Omar Olivares Jason Marquis Dan Petry 2.8 0.8 3.53 4.74
Kyle Backhus Jason Davis Justin Wright Matt Hoffman 0.6 -0.1 3.44 4.74
Mitchell Stumpo Adam Jorgenson David Lee Michael Neu 0.5 -0.2 3.52 4.87
Mark Melancon Harry Gumbert Red Faber Don Larsen 0.6 -0.4 3.39 5.30
Taylor Rashi Fred Lasher Eddie Gaillard Joe Ausanio 0.5 -0.2 3.56 4.91
Luis Frías Jim Otten Ira Godin Larry Mitchell 1.4 0.1 3.62 4.98
Keynan Middleton Eric Broersma Fred Lasher Bill Wilson 0.4 -0.2 3.60 5.29
Tommy Henry Shawn Morimando Fred Kipp Eric Nolte 2.7 0.8 3.68 4.83
J.B. Wendelken Matt Albers Kevin Campbell George Frazier 0.6 -0.3 3.35 5.04
Kyle Nelson Bob Macdonald Hal Baird Kevin Saucier 0.6 -0.2 3.39 5.01
Slade Cecconi Shaun Anderson Gus Schlosser Todd Redmond 2.1 0.5 3.72 4.94
Peter Solomon Jerry Thomas Al Nipper Pete Smith 1.8 0.5 3.79 4.85
Ryan Meisinger Dave Wallace Tony Runion Geoff Broussard 0.4 -0.3 3.48 5.32
Merrill Kelly Tanner Roark Ervin Santana Tom Candiotti 2.7 0.8 3.75 4.94
Noé Ramirez Pat Neshek Sarge Connally Matt Guerrier 0.6 -0.3 3.53 5.16
Edwin Uceta Yoervis Medina Cal Santarelli Ernesto Frieri 1.2 -0.2 3.62 5.23
Austin Brice Vinnie Chulk Emil Kush Bob Bowman 0.6 -0.2 3.72 5.20
Taylor Widener Derek Gordon Vladimir Nunez Jake Henson 1.0 0.0 3.75 5.18
Ryan Hendrix Ryan Garton R.J. Alvarez Al Jones 0.4 -0.4 3.74 5.22
Zach McAllister Dick Tidrow Tony Pena Josh Kinney 0.6 -0.4 3.57 5.44
Humberto Castellanos Alex Concepcion Stan Jones Adrian Martin 1.1 0.1 3.70 5.09
Paul Fry J.C. Romero Brian Shackelford Matt Smith 0.5 -0.4 3.63 5.42
Justin Martinez Rich Smithson Ray Soff Bob Devlin 0.5 -0.4 3.71 5.22
Blake Walston Chris Narveson Horacio Ramirez 라미레즈 Tyler Watson 1.7 0.3 3.94 5.02
Miguel Aguilar Jorge Flores Jason Kershner John O’Donoghue 0.4 -0.3 3.78 5.25
Reyes Moronta Gene Harris Evan Meek 에반 Ricky Bottalico 0.4 -0.6 3.62 5.87
Humberto Mejia Brian Bass배스 Greg LaFever Mark Tranberg 1.3 0.2 4.02 5.03
Zach Davies Jason Marquis Armando Galarraga Walt Terrell 1.7 0.2 4.09 5.19
Caleb Smith Don Carman Hector Santiago Bob McClure 1.4 -0.5 3.83 5.54
Jeff Bain Michael Rucker Greg Beck Parker Curry 1.1 -0.2 3.92 5.40
Blake Rogers Bruce Dal Canton Pedro Beato Ryan Reid 0.5 -0.5 3.75 5.32
J.B. Bukauskas Jim Dickson Logan Easley Dave Reynolds 0.8 0.0 3.96 5.25
Mack Lemieux David Sanders Len Whitehouse Derek Dace 0.2 -0.5 4.02 5.29
Matt Tabor Mark Lemongello Miguel Yajure Greg LaFever 1.4 0.2 4.09 5.21
Bryce Jarvis Randy Hennis Matthew Gayeski Terry Sheehan 1.2 0.1 4.23 5.26
Corbin Martin Alex Caldera Chuck Murray Ryan Zimmerman 1.1 -0.1 4.12 5.43
Jake Rice William McLaurine Chad Bailey Adam Bright 0.2 -0.3 4.08 5.41
Andrew Saalfrank Russ Rothermel Frank Del Valle Joel McKeon 0.2 -0.7 4.12 5.70
Josh Green Nestor Renovato Mark Petkovsek Ethan Hollingsworth 0.8 -0.1 4.35 5.30
Austin Pope Bobby Shore George Rewerts Joe Stephenson 0.6 -0.3 4.21 5.49
Tyler Gilbert Chris Welsh Ken Brett Gustavo Chacin 0.7 -0.2 4.41 5.51
Ian Kennedy Stan Bahnsen Hy Vandenberg Mike Ryba 0.3 -0.7 4.04 6.24
Deyni Olivero Casey Daigle Joel Payamps Jon Asahina 1.3 0.1 4.39 5.28
Liu Fuenmayor James Folsom Dick Cooke Art Canestro 0.1 -0.4 4.29 5.60
Madison Bumgarner Bob Knepper Dennis Rasmussen Jason Vargas 1.5 -0.3 4.31 5.56
Jamison Hill Daniel Neville Yency Almonte Richie Leblanc 0.9 -0.4 4.65 5.63
Levi Kelly Cory Doyne Antonio Alfonseca Domingo Valdez 0.6 -0.5 4.54 5.93
Dan Straily Bill Harris Sid Hudson Eric Gagne 0.1 -0.8 5.06 6.39

Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2023 due to injury, and players who were released in 2022. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Norwegian Death Dixieland Bubblegum Ska-Funk band, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.22, above 2022’s level of offense but lower than other years. Pitchers who appear to have a fairly definite change in the majors from start-to-relief or vice-versa from these projections will receive reconfigured updates in the spring.

Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

As always, incorrect projections are either caused by flaws in the physical reality of the universe or by skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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Greggmember
1 month ago

The Pacific Coast League just had its best offensive season since the early 1980s with a league ERA of 5.40 and nearly six runs scored per game”

Would Fangraphs ever consider adding ERA- or FIP- for minor leagues so that we have some frame of reference for pitchers like we do with hitters and wRC+?

Rollie's Mustachemember
1 month ago
Reply to  Gregg

I would love this. And I’ve asked in chats if FG had any plans to calculate their own Minor League wRC+ but got a sense that the lack of reliability may outweigh the substantial undertaking in tackling it.

Perhaps that thinking applies to environment-adjusted pitching metrics too.

Which, fair enough. This place rules as-is.