The (Final) Top College Players by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

On multiple occasions since the middle of March, the author has published here a statistical report designed to serve as a nearly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, have enthusiasm for collegiate baseball, if not actually expert knowledge of it. These posts have served as a means by which one might broadly detect which players have produced the most excellent performances of the college season.

What follows is another edition of that same thing, updated to account for the completion of every conference’s regular season.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done is utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in six different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The six conferences I’ve chosen represent (first) the five conferences to provide the most qualifying schools for the upcoming NCAA tournament, plus also the Missouri Valley Conference so that it might be possible to inspect more closely Indiana State’s Paul DeJong.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively.

ACC
Top Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
David Thompson, 3B, Miami (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Sarkis Ohanian, RHP, Duke (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Sarkis Ohanian, RHP, Duke (Sr)

Top Starter
Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville (Fr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	David Thompson	Miami	Jr	3B	276	8.7%	.348	.302	10.3%	.262	.319	163
2	Will Craig	Wake Forest	So	1B	238	10.1%	.319	.385	11.6%	.237	.334	157
3	Zack Collins	Miami	So	DH/C	269	20.1%	.316	.350	19.7%	.241	.328	145
4	DJ Stewart	Florida St.	Jr	LF	267	15.0%	.272	.345	15.5%	.214	.327	140
5	Nate Mondou	Wake Forest	So	2B	248	12.1%	.243	.349	13.2%	.195	.328	136
6	Chris Shaw	Boston College	Jr	RF	168	15.5%	.292	.324	16.1%	.207	.323	135
7	A.J. Murray	Georgia Tech	Sr	RF/C	244	22.1%	.301	.299	21.3%	.228	.319	134
8	Logan Ratledge	NC State	Sr	2B	261	11.5%	.222	.346	12.7%	.183	.328	133
9	Matt Thaiss	Virginia	So	C	248	8.1%	.205	.321	10.0%	.172	.323	130
10	Chris Okey	Clemson	So	C	263	17.9%	.237	.353	17.9%	.193	.329	129

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Sarkis Ohanian	Duke	Sr	RHP	45.2	180	34.4%	6.1%	30.6%	7.9%	68
2	Brendan McKay	Louisville	Fr	LHP	82.0	312	33.0%	9.9%	30.8%	9.9%	73
3	Drew Harrington	Louisville	So	LHP	31.0	121	34.7%	8.3%	29.6%	9.2%	74
4	Matt Pidich	Pittsburgh	So	RHP	15.2	60	38.3%	8.3%	28.9%	9.5%	77
5	Isaac Mattson	Pittsburgh	Fr	RHP	30.2	124	29.8%	4.0%	26.6%	7.4%	77
6	Michael Mediavilla	Miami	Fr	LHP	33.0	128	34.4%	12.5%	29.6%	11.0%	79
7	Kenny Koplove	Duke	Jr	RHP	25.1	109	33.9%	11.0%	28.8%	10.3%	79
8	Trent Thornton	UNC	Jr	RHP	62.0	254	31.9%	12.2%	29.5%	11.3%	80
9	Mike Compton	Florida St.	Jr	RHP	63.1	254	25.2%	3.9%	24.2%	6.3%	81
10	Billy Strode	Florida St.	Sr	LHP	29.1	119	33.6%	12.6%	28.9%	11.0%	81

Notes
After a combination of thoracic outlet syndrome and a procedure to address same mostly ruined his sophomore year, Miami junior David Thompson has recovered this year to produce the top line among ACC batters by the methodology used here. He appears among the possible third-round candidates in the April edition of Kiley McDaniel’s draft-prospect rankings. Present among the first-round candidates within those same draft rankings is hard-throwing Louisville junior Kyle Funkhouser. Funkhouser finished just 72nd among all pitchers by MPS, producing strikeout and walk rates of 22.1% and 10.0%, respectively, over 98.1 innings.

***

American
Top Batter
Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Cincinnati (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Cincinnati (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Cincinnati (Jr)

Top Pitcher
Seth Romero, LHP, Houston (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Carson Cross, RHP, UConn (Sr)

Top Starter
Andrew Lantrip, RHP, Houston (So)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Ian Happ	Cincinnati	Jr	2B/OF	252	19.4%	.303	.428	19.2%	.228	.340	148
2	Tucker Tubbs	Memphis	Sr	1B	258	10.5%	.296	.283	11.9%	.225	.313	148
3	Chris Iriart	Houston	Jr	1B	269	23.8%	.273	.369	22.7%	.213	.330	134
4	Dylan Moore	UCF	Sr	SS	277	12.6%	.208	.357	13.6%	.174	.328	131
5	Luke Lowery	E. Carolina	Jr	LF	236	23.3%	.247	.373	22.2%	.193	.330	127
6	Joe DeRoche-Duffin	UConn	Jr	DH	214	23.8%	.271	.321	22.5%	.203	.320	127
7	Darien Tubbs	Memphis	So	CF	274	8.8%	.171	.329	10.4%	.151	.322	125
8	Vinny Siena	UConn	Jr	2B	295	10.2%	.158	.383	11.5%	.143	.334	125
9	Tommy Williams	UCF	Sr	2B/DH	259	23.2%	.221	.397	22.2%	.180	.335	124
10	Erik Barber	UCF	Sr	RF	246	20.3%	.212	.355	19.9%	.173	.327	122

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Seth Romero	Houston	Fr	LHP	75.1	311	27.0%	6.1%	25.5%	7.2%	75
2	Andrew Lantrip	Houston	So	RHP	104.1	423	25.3%	5.2%	24.3%	6.4%	76
3	Patrick Ruotolo	UConn	So	RHP	36.1	149	34.9%	14.8%	29.7%	11.9%	76
4	Carson Cross	UConn	Sr	RHP	106.0	418	25.8%	6.0%	24.8%	6.9%	76
5	Jimmy Herget	So. Florida	Jr	RHP	94.2	399	27.3%	8.3%	26.0%	8.6%	77
6	Tommy Peterson	So. Florida	So	RHP	43.2	180	27.8%	8.3%	25.2%	8.8%	80
7	Anthony Kay	UConn	So	LHP	100.0	394	24.4%	6.3%	23.5%	7.2%	80
8	Reid Love	E. Carolina	Sr	LHP	88.2	358	21.5%	2.8%	21.0%	4.9%	81
9	Drew Faintich	UCF	So	LHP	9.1	39	46.2%	30.8%	28.5%	13.3%	83
10	Joe Ingle	E. Carolina	Fr	RHP	30.2	127	32.3%	16.5%	27.4%	12.4%	83

Notes
Junior infielder/outfielder Ian Happ’s Cincinnati club finished only 15-41 overall and just 6-18 in the American conference this year. Whatever weaknesses the school possessed, none of them belong to Happ himself: he produced both the highest regressed isolated-power figure (.228 xISO) and the regressed BABIP (.340) among any hitter in the conference. That offensive performance, in tandem with his defensive flexibility, has allowed him to qualify as one of the 21 semifinalists for the Golden Spikes award.

***

Big 10
Top Batter
David Kerian, 1B, Illinois (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
David Kerian, 1B, Illinois (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Maryland (So)

Top Pitcher
Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois (Jr)

Top Starter
Mike Shawaryn, RHP, Maryland (So)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	David Kerian	Illinois	Sr	1B	231	10.8%	.278	.361	11.8%	.207	.326	146
2	Ryan Krill	Michigan St.	Sr	1B	245	12.2%	.263	.355	12.9%	.201	.325	142
3	Brandon Lowe	Maryland	So	2B	287	9.8%	.222	.351	10.8%	.181	.325	137
4	Kyle Ruchim	Northwestern	Sr	CF	178	7.9%	.226	.362	9.8%	.170	.325	134
5	Pat Porter	Ohio St.	Sr	RF	247	16.2%	.238	.370	16.1%	.186	.328	133
6	Jason Goldstein	Illinois	Jr	C	226	9.7%	.207	.297	11.0%	.166	.315	128
7	Mark Weist	Michigan St.	Sr	3B	258	9.7%	.180	.363	10.8%	.153	.327	127
8	Jacob Cronenworth	Michigan	Jr	2B	293	8.5%	.167	.354	9.8%	.146	.326	126
9	Carmen Benedetti	Michigan	So	1B	251	8.8%	.168	.370	10.1%	.145	.328	126
10	Greg Guers	Penn St.	Jr	LF	230	13.0%	.211	.296	13.6%	.168	.315	125

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Tyler Jay	Illinois	Jr	LHP	56.1	195	33.3%	3.1%	29.3%	5.8%	62
2	Mike Shawaryn	Maryland	So	RHP	103.1	400	31.0%	5.8%	29.1%	6.7%	65
3	Ryan Halstead	Indiana	Sr	RHP	40.0	159	32.1%	3.1%	27.8%	6.1%	67
4	Josh Roeder	Nebraska	Sr	RHP	20.0	74	37.8%	4.1%	28.2%	7.4%	69
5	Luke Harrison	Indiana	Sr	RHP	48.0	191	30.4%	6.8%	27.0%	7.8%	73
6	Kevin Duchene	Illinois	Jr	LHP	89.2	347	24.5%	3.5%	23.4%	5.2%	76
7	Thomas Belcher	Indiana	So	RHP	44.1	174	25.9%	2.9%	23.6%	5.8%	77
8	Nick Hibbing	Iowa	Sr	RHP	41.1	149	23.5%	1.3%	21.7%	5.4%	80
9	Kyle Wood	Purdue	Jr	LHP	5.2	31	41.9%	12.9%	25.3%	9.5%	82
10	Robert Galligan	Maryland	Jr	LHP	48.2	202	25.7%	7.4%	23.7%	8.1%	82

Notes
Despite recording just a single start this year, Illinois left-hander Tyler Jay appears to have exhibited a compelling enough collection of tools to warrant a first-round pick. Indeed, Kiley McDaniel ranked him ninth among all draft prospects in April. McDaniel is less certain about draft-eligible sophomore Brandon Lowe’s precise spot among those same prospect, but places him among the more solid all-around position players. Both Jay’s Illinois club and Lowe’s Maryland one are included in the College World Series’ field of 64.

***

Missouri Valley
Top Batter
Kevin Kaczmarski, CF, Evansville (Sr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Kevin Kaczmarski, CF, Evansville (Sr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Kevin Kaczmarski, CF, Evansville (Sr)

Top Pitcher
Brandon Koch, RHP, Dallas Baptist (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Brandon Koch, RHP, Dallas Baptist (Jr)

Top Starter
Matt Hall, LHP, Missouri St. (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Kevin Kaczmarski	Evansville	Sr	CF	221	10.4%	.281	.509	12.1%	.209	.359	156
2	Paul DeJong	Illinois St.	Jr	2B/3B/C	246	20.3%	.271	.381	19.9%	.208	.338	137
3	Ryan Tinkham	Wichita St.	Jr	1B	261	16.1%	.243	.370	16.5%	.193	.336	135
4	Chris Godinez	Bradley	Jr	2B	199	12.6%	.225	.327	13.9%	.175	.328	129
5	Sam Hilliard	Wichita St.	Jr	RF	243	18.9%	.211	.392	18.8%	.172	.340	125
6	Justin Wall	Dallas Baptist	Jr	LF	271	15.9%	.211	.318	16.3%	.174	.326	125
7	Andy Young	Indiana St.	Jr	3B	236	14.0%	.202	.321	14.9%	.166	.327	124
8	Jake Burger	Missouri St.	Fr	3B	221	11.3%	.172	.369	12.8%	.148	.335	123
9	Drew Turbin	Dallas Baptist	Sr	2B	255	17.3%	.172	.435	17.4%	.150	.349	122
10	Jacob Hayes	Indiana St.	Sr	RF	236	24.2%	.232	.341	23.0%	.184	.331	120

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Brandon Koch	Dallas Baptist	Jr	RHP	38.1	153	45.1%	15.7%	36.9%	12.8%	58
2	Matt Hall	Missouri St.	Jr	LHP	108.0	432	35.2%	8.8%	32.9%	9.2%	59
3	Chance Adams	Dallas Baptist	Jr	RHP	52.0	200	35.5%	6.0%	31.2%	8.0%	61
4	Jeff Degano	Indiana St.	Jr	LHP	99.0	393	32.1%	7.1%	30.1%	8.1%	64
5	Jon Harris	Missouri St.	Jr	RHP	89.1	360	29.2%	8.9%	27.5%	9.3%	74
6	Bryan Young	Missouri St.	So	RHP	38.1	153	29.4%	8.5%	26.2%	9.4%	78
7	Jacob Hendren	Illinois St.	Jr	LHP	106.0	424	23.3%	5.7%	22.7%	7.0%	80
8	Sam Perez	Missouri St.	Jr	RHP	65.1	264	23.5%	5.7%	22.6%	7.5%	82
9	Austin Conway	Indiana St.	So	RHP	51.2	201	25.9%	8.5%	24.1%	9.3%	83
10	Steve Adkins	Bradley	Jr	RHP	53.1	226	24.8%	8.4%	23.4%	9.2%	84

Notes
Illinois State junior Paul DeJong sat atop the Missouri Valley batting leaderboard in the last iteration of this same exercise. Indeed, owing to a combination both of his offensive abilities and defensive flexibility, he remains a compelling amateur prospect. In the meantime, however, he’s been summarily passed by Evansville senior center-fielder Kevin Kaczmarski. Writing the MVC preview earlier this year, Michael Baumann of D1 Baseball suggested that Kaczmarski was a candidate to win the conference’s player of the year award. Even more impressively, he’s also been named one of the 21 semifinalists for the Golden Spikes award. Unfortunately, neither DeJong nor Kaczmarski will appear in the College World Series. Here’s who will, however: all the players listed here from Bradley, Dallas Baptist, and Missouri State.

***

Pac-12
Top Batter
Bobby Dalbec, 3B, Arizona (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Scott Kingery, 2B, Arizona (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Bobby Dalbec, 3B, Arizona (So)

Top Pitcher
Garrett Cleavinger, LHP, Oregon (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Garrett Cleavinger, LHP, Oregon (Jr)

Top Starter
Griffin Canning, RHP, UCLA (Fr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Bobby Dalbec	Arizona	So	3B	253	23.7%	.282	.376	22.3%	.212	.329	135
2	Scott Kingery	Arizona	Jr	2B	259	6.9%	.169	.407	8.7%	.146	.335	132
3	Austin Rei	Washington	Jr	C	110	25.5%	.352	.411	22.3%	.205	.326	131
4	Lucas Erceg	California	So	3B	233	9.9%	.212	.311	11.2%	.169	.317	130
5	Jeff Hendrix	Oregon St.	Jr	CF	262	14.1%	.204	.388	14.5%	.167	.331	130
6	Chris Keck	UCLA	Sr	3B	255	10.2%	.199	.317	11.4%	.164	.318	128
7	KJ Harrison	Oregon St.	Fr	1B/C	255	19.6%	.229	.357	19.0%	.181	.325	127
8	Chris Paul	California	Sr	1B	213	17.8%	.223	.371	17.5%	.173	.326	126
9	Devin Pearson	California	Jr	RF	137	15.3%	.217	.392	15.7%	.158	.326	123
10	Bobby Stahel	USC	Jr	LF	256	11.3%	.145	.412	12.3%	.132	.336	121

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Garrett Cleavinger	Oregon	Jr	LHP	39.2	151	43.7%	11.9%	36.0%	10.4%	59
2	Ryan Burr	Arizona St.	Jr	RHP	41.2	187	36.9%	12.3%	32.1%	10.7%	70
3	Griffin Canning	UCLA	Fr	RHP	63.2	248	26.6%	2.4%	25.0%	5.1%	74
4	Grant Dyer	UCLA	So	RHP	53.1	204	30.4%	6.9%	27.5%	7.8%	74
5	Dylan Nelson	California	Sr	RHP	26.0	107	31.8%	8.4%	26.8%	8.8%	79
6	James Kaprielian	UCLA	Jr	RHP	97.2	388	27.6%	8.0%	26.3%	8.3%	79
7	Tucker Forbes	UCLA	So	RHP	34.1	138	29.0%	6.5%	25.7%	7.9%	79
8	Andrew Moore	Oregon St.	Jr	RHP	114.2	424	24.3%	4.5%	23.6%	5.8%	79
9	David Berg	UCLA	Jr	RHP	61.2	230	24.3%	3.0%	23.2%	5.6%	80
10	Alex Schick	California	So	RHP	34.0	137	31.4%	10.9%	27.3%	9.9%	80

Notes
For much of the spring, the combination of junior Scott Kingery at second base and other junior Kevin Newman at shortstop appeared to render Arizona’s infield the most offensively talented in all the Pac-12. The season now over, the school still retains that distinction, albeit for slightly different reasons. Neither Kingery (second in the conference at 132 MPS+) nor Newman (12th at 120 MPS+) have acquitted themselves poorly, at all. Rather, sophomore third baseman Bobby Dalbec has just performed particularly well. He’s currently regarded by Kiley McDaniel as a likely first-round selection in next year’s draft. Unfortunately, none of that infield triumvirate will appear in the College World Series. Here are the Pac-12’s six entries: Arizona St., California, Oregon, Oregon St., USC, and UCLA.

***

SEC
Top Batter
Andrew Benintendi, CF, Arkansas (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Andrew Benintendi, CF, Arkansas (So)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Andrew Benintendi, CF, Arkansas (So)

Top Pitcher
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top Starter
Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top-Ten Batters

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	PA	K%	ISO	BABIP	xK%	xISO	xBABIP	MPS+
1	Andrew Benintendi	Arkansas	So	CF	253	11.5%	.347	.381	12.6%	.257	.340	161
2	Dansby Swanson	Vanderbilt	Jr	SS	285	14.4%	.304	.372	14.9%	.237	.339	150
3	Kyle Martin	So. Carolina	Sr	1B	254	10.6%	.286	.339	11.9%	.222	.332	146
4	Christin Stewart	Tennessee	Jr	LF	221	17.2%	.322	.320	17.2%	.236	.329	142
5	Alex Bregman	LSU	Jr	SS	278	7.2%	.238	.321	9.0%	.196	.328	139
6	Sikes Orvis	Ole Miss	Sr	1B	238	23.1%	.333	.288	22.0%	.246	.323	137
7	JJ Schwarz	Florida	Fr	DH/C	249	16.5%	.284	.314	16.6%	.220	.327	137
8	Chris Chinea	LSU	Jr	DH/C	248	12.5%	.217	.376	13.4%	.180	.339	130
9	Zander Wiel	Vanderbilt	Jr	1B	274	17.9%	.242	.356	17.8%	.198	.336	130
10	Harrison Bader	Florida	Jr	LF	253	17.8%	.257	.312	17.7%	.204	.327	129

Top-Ten Pitchers

#	Name	School	Yr	Pos	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	xK%	xBB%	MPS-
1	Carson Fulmer	Vanderbilt	Jr	RHP	100.2	403	33.7%	9.4%	31.9%	9.4%	71
2	A.J. Puk	Florida	So	LHP	61.2	255	33.3%	11.0%	30.7%	10.3%	77
3	Andrew Lee	Tennessee	Jr	RHP	27.0	96	33.3%	5.2%	28.1%	7.8%	77
4	Alden Cartwright	LSU	So	RHP	19.0	85	32.9%	4.7%	27.6%	7.7%	78
5	A.J. Minter	Texas A&M	Jr	LHP	21.0	89	32.6%	9.0%	27.5%	9.2%	82
6	John Kilichowski	Vanderbilt	So	LHP	58.2	229	26.6%	5.7%	25.3%	7.2%	83
7	Ben Bowden	Vanderbilt	So	LHP	32.2	135	30.4%	8.9%	27.2%	9.1%	83
8	Bobby Poyner	Florida	Sr	LHP	52.1	200	25.0%	3.0%	24.0%	5.9%	83
9	Tanner Houck	Missouri	Fr	RHP	100.2	398	22.9%	3.0%	22.6%	4.9%	84
10	Bret Marks	Tennessee	Sr	RHP	77.0	321	27.7%	8.7%	26.5%	8.9%	84

Notes
There are multiple ways one might measure it, but by probably all of those ways the SEC is college baseball’s strongest conference. No other conference is sending more teams to the NCAA tournament’s field of 64. No other conference features more teams in D1 Baseball’s top-25 rankings. Nor does any conference at all feature more players among the top-10 prospects within Kiley McDaniel’s most recent draft rankings. Given the strength of the conference, the performances of Arkansas center fielder Andrew Benintendi and Vanderbilt right-hander Carson Fulmer are particularly notable. The former was the conference’s best hitter; the latter, its best pitcher. The former achieved that distinction while playing center field; the latter, while working as a starter. Both are draft eligible, as well.