The Free-Agent Frenzy We Didn’t Get This Year

Everybody knows that next year’s crop of free agents is going to be spectacular. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado headline the class, of course, but Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, and Andrew McCutchen will all be available, as well. Clayton Kershaw, meanwhile, will have the option of opting out of the final two years of his contract with the Dodgers. The collection of talent is impressive. The contracts they’re all likely to receive are expected to be equally so.

By contrast, the prospect “merely” of Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer, and J.D. Martinez — that is, the top names of the 2017-18 offseason — isn’t as striking. Had things unfolded differently, however, this offseason would have facilitated a free-agent bonanza of its own.

The Dodgers and Yankees appear motivated to avoid the competitive-balance tax right now, but would they be doing so if Mike Trout were available? How about Jose Altuve or Paul Goldschmidt? This isn’t some fantasyland where every player is a free agent. If Altuve, Goldschmidt, and Trout hadn’t signed team-friendly contract extensions, all three would be free agents right now. They aren’t the only ones, either.

Here’s a list of some of the position players who signed contract extensions that prevented them from becoming free agents during the 2017-18 offseason.

Not all of these players are equally valuable, of course; nevertheless, there is a considerable amount of talent here. In just this most recent season, for example, three of the eight players listed here finished among the top four in their respective league’s MVP voting.

And beyond those elite names is a collection of others who would all rank among the top players at their respective positions this offseason. Sal Perez, for example, anchored a couple of World Series teams at catcher. Logan Forsythe, Josh Harrison, and Jason Kipnis all represent solid second-base options. Kyle Seager is one of the better third baseman in the league; Brandon Crawford hits well relative to the value he creates on defense; a few of the first basemen considered here (Brandon Belt, Matt Carpenter) have better track records than Eric Hosmer. Oh, and did I mention Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt, and Mike Trout? Good.

Moving on…

It’s clear that these players would have had a considerable effect on the market this offseason. To begin understanding the magnitude of that effect, let’s first consider the best free-agent position players of the winter. I’ve included each players WAR from 2017 as well as their projections for 2018.

Zack Cozart and Lorenzo Cain have the best projections for 2018 but get dinged a bit in the rankings due to their age and reliance on defense. Those are the only position players projected for more than three wins in 2018. Only seven of the players here hit the three-win mark last season. Only 10 players, meanwhile, project even as average players next season. Eric Hosmer and J.D. Martinez are intriguing, but they come with big question marks — Hosmer because of his inconsistent production and Martinez due to his health concerns and defensive shortcomings.

Look what happens, though, when we add the players who signed contract extensions prior to this offseason.

It seems quite possible that free agency might have begun more swiftly this winter if even a few of the guys listed here had been involved this offseason. The four best players and seven of the top nine on this most recent list missed out on free agency due to contract extensions. For the most part, those players are younger than the better free agents available now — and are very good hitters. Brandons Belt and Crawford were close enough to free agency that they nearly received free-agent prices. Did I mention Jose Altuve, Paul Goldshmidt, and Mike Trout? Good.

This is not meant as an indictment of those players who signed contract extensions. Teams have tremendous leverage when they approach players making the major-league minimum and offer them guaranteed millions. On an individual basis, it is very likely that players are making the right decision given the risks involved. In sum, however, those individual decisions have larger ramifications when considered as a group, as they are here.

Position players are not alone, either. There are a few starters who missed out on free agency this year, as well.

This list is considerably smaller than the position-player side, but it does include considerable quality. Carlos Carrasco would be the best pitcher on the market right now, while while Duffy might be just behind Yu Darvish and ahead of Jake Arrieta. Carrasco had some very good reasons for signing a contract extension, but it is currently a great deal for Cleveland.

Here’s how the current free-agent pitchers stack up against those who removed themselves from the class by signing a new deal.

This is now the second year in a row in which we’ve had a bit of a muted free-agent class. Last year, we missed out on Madison Bumgarner, Freddie Freeman, Buster Posey, Chris Sale, and Giancarlo Stanton. This year, the losses are even greater in terms of would-be free-agent signings. When the big-name players are out there, teams spend. When they aren’t, teams spend money on relievers and wait for the asking price on other players to go down. Next year, we will have no such problems.