The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The author realized only after press time that Houston right-hander Michael Feliz actually appeared on John Sickels’ mid-season prospect update, thus technically rendering him (Feliz, not Sickels) ineligible for the Five. That he’s a promising talent remains true; that he’s a fringe one, however, is harder to argue.

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a couple years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above both (a) absent from the most current iteration of Kiley McDaniel’s top-200 prospect list and (b) absent from the midseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Keith Law, and John Sickels, and also (c) not currently playing in the majors. Players appearing anywhere on McDaniel’s updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

*****

Austin Barnes, C, Los Angeles NL (Profile)
With this appearance, Barnes currently sits sixth overall among the arbitrarily calculated Fringe Five Scoreboard below. One could defend with some ease, however, the claim that he ought to appear higher than that. With more ease than he could defend the opposite claim, that is — i.e. that Barnes ought to appear lower. Because consider: Barnes is a catcher who possesses what very much resembles either an average or slightly above-average hit tool. In the current iteration of the major-league offensive environment, an “average” hit tool equates to roughly a .260 batting average — or .258, if one cares for precision. Among the 31 catchers who’ve recorded 200-plus plate appearances, only 10 of them have produced a batting average higher than either of those marks. Here’s the average WAR figure of those 10 catchers per 450 plate appearances: 2.3. And here’s the average WAR figure per 450 PAs of the 21 catchers who’ve produced a batting average below .260: just 0.9. Does this conclusively confirm Barnes’ major-league bona fides? No. Is it a good and not bad sign, however? Yes.

Jharel Cotton, RHP, Los Angeles NL (Profile)
This represents Cotton’s fifth consecutive appearance among the Five proper and seventh overall. It represents his first appearance here, however, as a member of a Triple-A club. Following a six-innings appearances last Tuesday (August 18) during which he produced a 7:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio against 24 batters, the 23-year-old right-hander was promoted to Triple-A Oklahoma City, for which club he proceeded to exhibit immediately his talents. Working in relief, Cotton recorded two innings of work, striking out the side in both cases. It would appear that, for a Dodgers club that has featured bullpen difficulties, Cotton is a candidate to help the major-league team through September to the postseason. Of some note: Cotton has produced nearly the same strikeout- and walk-rate differential against left-handed batters this season (29.2% and 9.1%, respectively) as right-handed ones (32.5% and 7.9%), rendering him a possible multi-inning option.

Cotton’s success against lefties is a product in no small part due to his changeup. That same pitch is featured twice in the video below — which footage documents the entirety of Cotton’s sixth strikeout from his Triple-A debut.

Yandy Diaz, 3B, Cleveland (Profile)
For much of the season, the author omitted Diaz from the Five because, despite an encouraging plate-discipline profile and excellent defensive reputation, he exhibited inadequate power. Then, starting at the end of July, Diaz proceeded to record five home runs over just 62 plate appearances, suggesting that the 24-year-old Cuban defector possesses at least enough power to allow his other skills to flourish. Now what the author looks like is an idiot for never having included Diaz even once in the earlier editions of this weekly exercise — this, in addition to all the other, different ways in which the author looks like an idiot. Since last week, Diaz has continued to exhibit his signature plate discipline (5:3 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 32 plate appearances), if not necessarily any further signs of power. Provided his performances remain in this vein, he’s likely to appear on the two finals editions of the Five, as well.

Michael Feliz, RHP, Houston (Profile)
Feliz actually made his major-league debut on May 31 of this year, recording a strikeout against four batters in the ninth inning of a game Houston was already losing 6-0 (box). As a minor leaguer this year, however, he’s worked almost exclusively in a starting capacity — and appears well equipped to remain in that role. The 22-year-old offers a promising combination both of performance and physical tools. In 105.1 innings this season between High- and Double-A, Feliz has produced strikeout and walk rates of 22.9% and 7.1%, respectively. The latter figure, in particular, is encouraging in light of Feliz’s arm speed. He sat at nearly 96 mph during the aforementioned relief appearance with the Astros and touched 97 during a recent start with Corpus Christi. A nearly rigorous study conducted by the author himself reveals, probably unsurprising, that pitchers who both throw hard and also limit walks tend to be successful.

Here’s footage of Feliz from August 16, striking out Alex Liddi on three consecutive swinging strikes, the middle of which was recorded at 95 mph by the Northwest Arkansas Naturals’ broadcast team:

Chase Johnson, RHP, San Francisco (Profile)
Selected by San Francisco in the third round of the 2013 draft out of Cal Poly, Johnson appeared among the Next Five portion of this weekly exercise at the end of July on the strength both of promising numbers at High-A San Jose and reports regarding his fastball, which sits in the mid-90s. He’s remained among the last cuts here since that point but has presented a strong argument for inclusion this week, first producing a 14-strikeout performance against just 22 batters on August 14 and then, following a promotion to Double-A Richmond, recording nine strikeouts against 22 batters in his debut at that new level. Lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel noted this past offseason that, at that time, Johnson resembled more of an “arm strength reliever” but that “some key adjustments could make him into an intriguing starter prospect.” Given Johnson’s success of late, it’s possible that some of those adjustments have been made.

In conclusion, here’s footage from Johnson’s Thursday start (last night) featuring that same pitcher’s breaking ball:

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Willson Contreras, C, Chicago NL (Double-A Southern League)
Jacob Faria, RHP, Tampa Bay (Double-A Southern League)
Andrew Knapp, C, Philadelphia (Double-A Eastern League)
David Perez, RHP, Texas (High-A California League)
Matthew Strahm, LHP, Kansas City (High-A Carolina League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here are the top-10 the players to have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season. For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.

#	Name	Team	POS	FF	NF	PTS
1	Matt Boyd*	Tigers	LHP	7	4	25
	Sherman Johnson	Angels	2B/3B	7	4	25
3	Jharel Cotton	Dodgers	RHP	7	3	24
4	Jose De Leon*	Dodgers	RHP	7	1	22
5	Max Kepler*	Twins	OF	5	4	19
6	Austin Barnes	Dodgers	C	4	4	16
	Ryan Cordell	Rangers	3B/OF	5	1	16
8	Gavin Cecchini*	Mets	SS	3	6	15
9	Rookie Davis	Yankees	RHP	4	2	14
10	Junior Guerra	White Sox	RHP	4	1	13

*Currently ineligible for inclusion among the Five due either to (a) promotion to major leagues, (b) appearance on a relevant prospect list, or (c) author’s declaration.