The Inconsistent One

by
September 2, 2008

The Dodgers spent a good bit of money on Hiroki Kuroda to bolster their rotation this winter, and overall, he’s pitched pretty well. His 3.64 FIP over 156 innings has resulted in a 1.36 WPA/LI, meaning he’s been nearly a win and a half better than an average pitcher. That’s pretty valuable, and the Dodgers couldn’t have hoped for much more when they signed him.

However, on a day to day basis, it’s been nearly impossible to predict what Kuroda will give you. He’s taken inconsistency to a whole new level. Take a look at this histogram of his starts by game score, showing the frequency of each type of start he’s had this year (using intervals of five).

Inconsistency Personified

Kuroda’s average game score for the season is 52 (a bit above average, as GS is set to be average at 50), but as you can see, the distribution is nothing like a bell curve. It’s more of a shipping barge. Or maybe a Dodger Dog with some weird toppings. The reason for that, of course, is that Kuroda has been sometimes miserable (three starts below 20) and sometimes awesome (one start at 90 and one at 91), and then just about every interval in between. He’s been horrible. He’s been bad. He’s been mediocre. He’s been okay. He’s been solid. He’s been good. He’s been excellent. He’s been great.

What he has not been is consistent. In total, the package has been quite valuable, but in isolation, you really have no idea what you’re going to get from Kuroda when he takes the mound. You want him on your team, but if the Dodgers do end up making the playoffs, I’m sure a few fans in LA are going to be holding their breaths when he takes the mound. He hasn’t exactly inspired a confidant expectation of results so far.

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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Rick
17 years ago

Dave, what’s typical in terms of game score variance? Perhaps more than any other statistical claim, the one regarding consistency seems to be thrown about most liberally with very little context. Yes Kuroda appears to have a good deal of variance. But compared to what and by what measure? What’s the distribution of game score consistency measures look like?

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