The Kid on His Way Home?
It appears to only be a matter of time now before Ken Griffey Jr. is brought back to Seattle, where he grew up as a player and where he sparked the imaginations of many both in and outside of Seattle with where his career might one day end up. Needless to say that his career has not followed a path many expected and we arrive now, in 2009, with Griffey reduced to what should be a positional role.
Forecasting for Griffey comes with a bit of an asterisk since he apparently played with a knee injury throughout 2008 that hampered his power and range and which he is now recovered from. CHONE and Marcel are going to be ignorant of that information (probably for the best) and they both present similar forecasts for Griffey, a slightly below average .330-2 wOBA over 452-79 at bats. As a DH, we would knock another five runs off that hitting projection, subtract another 17.5 runs for the lack of position and we end up with a player right at replacement level. His OF defense is such that him playing the field probably comes out to the same level despite the 15-run boost in adjustments.
A smart team however is not going to employ Griffey in a full time role. Notably, an effort to platoon him away from facing left-handed pitchers would help to improve his overall line as he’s posted a near-200 OPS point split over the last three seasons. In the best case scenario, the Mariners could hope for a return to his 2007-level of offense, while primarily manning DH with only occasional forays out into the field. That level would make Griffey worth around 1 to 1.5 wins.
That tells us that this is going to be a pretty inconsequential move, value-wise, for the Mariners in 2009. Certainly, sentimentally-wise, this is a slam dunk for them and assuming Griffey doesn’t command much money (an appropriate amount would be around $2-3 million), the main concern going forward will be making sure that Griffey doesn’t take too many at bats away from younger developing players.
Matthew Carruth is a software engineer who has been fascinated with baseball statistics since age five. When not dissecting baseball, he is watching hockey or playing soccer.
If the Angels had signed Griffey, you would be trashing the signing to pieces. You’d laugh and trash it. With the M’s? You try to find positives. What the hell is wrong with you?
Call it what it is, a terrible move. Don’t try to find positives just because the M’s are your favorite team.
…maybe because the Angels don’t have the incentive to sign Griffey that the M’s do? Are we actually having this conversation?
There’s really no point in responding to someone like this. Some people just want to see everything in black and white and will willfully ignore the shades of gray that go with everything in order to simplify the complex into a more simple world view that he or she can understand.
You can lie to yourself all you want. You’re not fooling anyone who reads your posts at LL. You’re biased. You hate the Angels. You find positives when the M’s make bad moves, while you never try to find a positive when the Angels make a questionable move. Why is that?
I think the more relevant question is what’s this obsession with Matthew’s life? You might want to look into that.
Anyone who ignores the sales of tickets and memorabilia along with the goodwill of probably punching Griffey’s Hall ticket with an M’s uniform on is simply looking through a severely skewed lens. Also, if baseball is only about winning, I don’t even know why most of us bother watching or caring about it. It’s not simply about putting the best players out there for every team. Baseball is telling your kids stories about Griffey as he comes up to the plate and launches one last long shot with his sweet swing. Baseball is about wearing your #24 jersey to the park one last time. Baseball is hot dogs and organ music and the 7th inning stretch. It’s shutouts in Safeco or homeruns in Coors. It’s a game of legends and nostalgia. The Mariners have very little chance of winning a championship in 2009, so let’s let their legend live out his final days and enjoy it, ay?
I personally don’t give a crap about the M’s, but there is a pretty good case made to sign him over at Lookout Landing. And it isn’t written by Matthew.
http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/1/29/742064/why-ken-griffey-jr-could-b
I actually argued against that post.
No one should trash the deal until we hear about the value. The M’s front office has made pretty clear that they didn’t have Abreu money, not even at the price he went for. The M’s are looking at their last couple million for salary this year. There’s no big move up the sleeve, no free agent signing that’s going to make them likely contenders in the worst division in baseball.
Griffey will generate some revenue because he’s Ken Griffey. Honestly, for the greatest number of wins they could have gotten from their last couple million–those wins are probably worth less than nostalgia ticket sales. The Mariners rotation is full and they have above replacement (though not always much) players at every position. Griffey won’t make the team millions, and if the deal is in the $2M range, it’s not a bad move for the club. It’s a one year commitment for a small free agent deal that will probably produce more revenue than any other signing option they have.
I actually hate nostalgia, and it’s especially annoying in the Mariners because their marketing is so often about reliving some past season while we watch Willie Bloomquist go 4,759,786 plate appearances without an extra base hit. It’s horrible. But you can’t really oppose a Griffey signing at a reasonable price when there are no other moves left to be made. I was a frothing anti-Griffey guy six months ago, when this move sounded like an expensive way to loose. The opportunity cost of signing Griffey has changed and so has the likely cost of the contract. This isn’t a genius move, but it’s not team suicide either.
(Man, if I wake up tomorrow and find out we signed Griffey for $5.5 Million Dollars, I’m going to scream and you will hear it in Washington D.C.)
Positive here is that M’s front office is more balanced. Jack Z would simply walk off the job if he had to be subjected to the kind of smoochy relationship other GM’s have had with the Seattle ownership. Jack will make this move without much enthusiasm and will not sell the future in the process. Manager Wakamatsu probably knows well the balance of developing the team and pleasing sentimental fans. I honestly can’t see us really getting burned here.
Things are different now.